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Author Archives: Stephanie McFall

Do Your Clients Give You an Unfair Advantage?

A question that we don’t hear enough RIAs asking themselves: what makes our best customer? The conventional wisdom we’ve gathered from talking with a wide variety of investment management firms over the years is that high net worth relationships make the best clients for RIAs. Relationships with individuals are supposed to be stickier than, say, institutional relationships where investment committees drop managers the moment their three-year performance lags the index. However, is it that simple?

How to Use an EV/Production Multiple

Oil and gas analysts use many different metrics to explain and compare the value of an oil and gas company, specifically an exploration and production (E&P) company. The most popular metrics (at least according to our eyeballs) include (1) EV/Production; (2) EV/Reserves; (3) EV/Acreage; and (4) EV/EBITDA(X). Enterprise Value (EV) may also be termed Market Value of Invested Capital (MVIC) and is calculated by the market capitalization of a public company plus debt on the balance sheet less cash on the balance sheet. In this post, we will dive into one of these four metrics, the EV/Production metric, and explore the most popular uses of it.

Are Oil and Gas Bankruptcies a Thing of the Past?

Since the start of the oil downturn, more than 120 upstream and oilfield service companies declared bankruptcy. However, as we described in a previous post, the decision to file for bankruptcy did not always signal the demise of the business. Now more prepared, many E&P companies who reorganized are looking to grow.

1Q Call Reports

As we do every quarter, we take a look at some of the earnings commentary of pacemakers in asset management to gain further insight into the challenges and opportunities developing in the industry.

E&P: What We Learned from 1st Quarter Earnings

The first quarter of 2017 was productive and active for upstream E&P but the change in market capitalizations of many oil and gas companies does not match the reported increase in earnings and production estimates. Looking at our universe of energy companies in the E&P space, over 70% beat earnings estimates. This statistic held true no matter if the energy company was a global integrated operator or a pure upstream producer. To provide a flavor of the attitude, we selected the two largest publicly traded energy companies involved in E&P (STO and XOM) as well as six companies with primary operations in the Permian Basin (PXD, CXO, NBL, XEC, FANG, and RSPP) and reviewed the highlights of their latest earnings releases. As summarized in this post, each of these companies exceeded analyst expectations.

Focus Financial’s Quest for an Unfair Advantage

As part of the analyst community that closely follows developments in the investment management industry, we were disappointed (but not surprised) that Focus Financial Partners pulled their S-1, again, and found a private equity recap partner instead of going public. Picking up on last week’s blog theme, Focus likes to tout their strategy of building an international network of efficiently connected wealth management firms as an “unfair advantage”, but it appears that their real capability is finding capital when necessary to avoid a public offering. Stone Point Capital and KKR bought 70% of the company, enabling prior private equity partners, affiliates who had sold their firms to Focus in exchange for stock, and employees with equity compensation to monetize their positions while Focus remains private.

Building Value in Your Investment Management Firm

After years of working with investment management firms of all shapes and sizes, it is our opinion that building the most value in an RIA comes down to the same thing: developing and capitalizing on some unfair advantage. That may sound unnecessarily mysterious or metaphorical, but it really boils down to examining the basic building blocks of firm architecture and finding out where your firm can excel like none other.

Why Aren’t We Talking About the Gulf of Mexico?

Artem Abramov, of Rystad Energy, recently published an article in the Oil and Gas Financial Journal comparing shale and offshore drilling. He claims, the “Gulf of Mexico [is] as important as [the] Permian Basin for U.S. oil production” but it has been overlooked since the advancement of shale gas. The EIA reports that offshore drilling accounts for 17% of total domestic crude oil production. So, why aren’t we talking more about oil and gas production from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM)?

Is Cash Always King?

Travis Harms, CFA, CPA/ ABV, Senior Vice President at Mercer Capital, recently published a blog post on Mercer Capital’s Financial Reporting Blog contemplating the appropriate amount of cash for a company to hold. This topic is especially pertinent to the oil and gas industry, in which 70 companies went bankrupt last year. Now as companies have started to increase capital expenditures again, they must consider how much cash they should keep as a cushion while considering the effect of this low-yielding asset on value.

Q1 Shows Glimmer of Hope for Active Managers and Continued Gains for Trust Banks

The First Quarter 2017 Asset Management newsletter has been released. This quarter’s newsletter focuses on the mutual fund sector, which has been plagued by asset outflows into ETFs and other passive strategies for most of the last decade. The first two months of this year do, however, offer a ray of hope as 45% of U.S. based active managers beat their relevant benchmark, resulting in February being the first month of inflows into active products since April 2015.

How to Invest in PUDs in the Permian Basin without Paying for the Well

In previous posts we have discussed the existence of royalty trusts & partnerships and their market pricing implications to royalty owners. Many of those trusts have a set number of wells generating royalty income at declining rates for multiple years to come. Viper Energy Partners LP (VNOM) is not a trust, but a partnership, solely focused on the Permian Basin with royalty interests in producing wells as well as proven undeveloped (PUD), probable and possible wells. In this post, we consider VNOM, the current market, and implications for royalty owners.

Corporate Venture Capital Trends

With the rapid rise of corporate venture capital and increasing pressure to jump on board with startups, it seems that many companies across the industry spectrum are making venture investments.

What Would You Do with $1 Billion?

Less than one month ago investors bet $1 billion on James Hackett, former President and CEO of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Silver Run Acquisition Corp. II is a blank check company that will leverage James Hackett’s knowledge of the Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin to fund an opportunistic acquisition. Silver Run II was created by the Riverstone Holdings LLC, the bank that successfully started the blank check company over a year ago now known as Centennial Resource Production LLC. The original stock sale for Silver Run Acquisition Corp I, which raised $900 million is expected to exceed $1 billion. If the banks managing the deal exercise their options to buy shares, which they generally do, the Company would be tied for the record largest blank-check offering. Before we review the recent uptick in investment in oil and gas blank check companies, we will review the basics of blank check companies and special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs).

Eureka! Observations & Thoughts from the Permian DUG Conference

Last week, Mercer Capital attended the DUG Permian Basin Conference in Fort Worth. It was a solidly attended event hosted by Hart Energy. The session speakers were a mix of mostly company executives and industry analysts. The presentations were tinged with a lot of optimism – centered on the positive and unique economics of the Permian, tempered by (some) cautionary commentary. We will follow on in later posts with some more detail on specifics, but today we want to touch on a few thematic elements: the Permian was the center of the M&A activity in 2016 and will be in 2017, efficiency and productivity gains are helping to fuel activity, and a rise in rig counts will eventually mean rise in costs.

Will the Fiduciary Rule Ever Become Law?

Last week, Matt Crow and I presented at RIA Institute’s 3rd Annual RIA Central Investment Forum, and this question was asked to the crowd of 70+ industry participants in attendance. Only about half the audience raised a hand. This comes after another delay last week, further extending the rule, now set to go into effect June 9th. Even most of those at the conference who thought it would eventually become law thought this deadline was too ambitious. So why the delay?

GM Trades at 5.6x Earnings for a Reason; Subprime Lenders Can Too

David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital Inc. is no stranger to controversy. His current project is General Motors Corp. He put a flashlight on its common shares on March 28 arguing that they are unreasonably cheap. Immediately before the proposal was made GM’s shares were trading just below $35 per share, which equates to 5.8x 2016 earnings of $6.00 per share and 5.6x the midpoint of management’s 2017 guidance ($6.25 per share). The dividend yield is high at 4.4%, more than double the yield of the S&P 500. As Einhorn points out, the yield is not high because the payout ratio is high; the $1.52 per share dividend equates to just one quarter of (current) earnings.

How to Value Overriding Royalty Interests

When comparing a royalty interest to an ORRI, it is critical to understand the subtle nuances of the rights and restrictions between the two. Owners of royalty interests utilizing Permian Basin Royalty Trust as a valuation gauge should adjust for such differences as well as other differences between publicly traded and non-marketable securities.

Excuse Me, Flo?

Immediately before ordering the Soup Du Jour and duping Sea Bass into picking up his lunch tab, Jim Carrey’s character in Dumb and Dumber, Lloyd Christmas, rudely accosts his waitress at the Truk-Stop Diner with this inexplicable reference to the early 1980s sitcom starring Polly Holliday as Florence Jean “Flo” Castleberry. Decades after the movie’s release in 1994, the market seems to be postulating the same question in pricing RIAs.

The Wild Goose Chase Is Over

From 2000 to 2005, “concerns that supply could run out and soaring oil prices sent energy companies on a grand, often wildly expensive, chase for new production.” They were investing in multi-billion-dollar projects in the Arctic waters and Kazakhstan’s Captain Sea. A WSJ article titled, “Oil Companies Take Thrifty Bets,” explained that when oil was worth $100 per barrel oil companies had much higher risk tolerance and were able to invest heavily in the exploration of undeveloped land and ocean. But as the price of oil declined and has settled around $50 per barrel, the wild goose chase for oil has come to an end.

RIA Performance Metrics: Keep an Eye on Your Dashboard

A persistent truth about investment management is that no analyst ever saw a piece of information he or she didn’t want. Professional investors are, by their very nature, research hounds – digging deep into a prospective investment’s operating model, financials, competitive landscape, management biographies, and whatever else might be relevant to try to evaluate the relative merit of buying into one idea instead of another. This same diligence doesn’t always extend to practice management, though, and we are not infrequently surprised at how little attention management teams at RIAs devote to studying their own companies.

Lean on Me

Albeit unlikely that Bill Withers was alluding to the plight of active management in his 1972 hit solo, it does appear to be an apt descriptor for recent dealmaking in the RIA sector. Standard Life’s $4.7 billion purchase of Aberdeen Asset Management earlier this month follows shareholder pressure to right the ship after years of significant underperformance from both firms. The market seems less convinced.

A Bright Spot at the Bottom of the Barrel

Asphalt and road oil are used primarily by the construction industry for roofing and waterproofing and for road construction. Asphalt is a byproduct of petroleum refining. During the distillation process of crude oil, asphalt does not boil off and is left as a heavy residue. Generally around 90% of crude is turned into high margin products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals while the other 10% is converted into asphalt and other low margin products. Petroleum refiners sell asphalt to asphalt product manufacturers who produce retail products such as asphalt paving mixtures and blocks; asphalt emulsions; prepared asphalt and tar roofing and siding products; and roofing asphalts and pitches, coating, and cement.

An All-Terrain Clause for your RIA’s Buy-Sell Agreement

Clients writing new buy-sell agreements or re-writing existing ones frequently ask us how often they should have their RIA valued. Like most things in life, it depends. We usually recommend having a firm valued annually, and most of our clients usually do just that. “Usually,” though, is subject to many specific considerations.