Auto Dealer Valuation Insights

June 13, 2025 SAAR

May 2025 SAAR

The May 2025 SAAR came in at 15.6 million units, down 9.3% from the previous month and representing a 1.1% decline from May 2024. Since the implementation of the Trump tariffs in early April, existing consumer demand and inventories have temporarily mitigated the impact on the auto industry. However, the resulting supply chain pressures and threat of higher vehicle prices have reduced sales momentum, contributing to a noticeable decline in the SAAR this month. Over the next several months, the automotive industry may continue to experience slower sales and tighter margins as it navigates tariff uncertainty and potentially recalibrates its global supply chains.

May 30, 2025 Blue Sky Public Auto Dealers

Blue (Sky) Is in the Eye of the Beholder – Part 1

Perspectives on Auto Dealership Blue Sky Multiples and Valuations

On a recent client engagement, I was asked the question, “Why are Haig and Kerrigan’s multiples so far apart?”

I’ve never really viewed them that way, as the blue sky multiples published in their quarterly newsletters tend to cluster reasonably close together. While their multiples are usually within 1x of each other, this difference can be more pronounced on the lower end of the range as the decline in value from a 4x multiple to a 3x multiple is 25%.

In this week’s post, we reached out to our friends at the premier auto dealer investment banks to hear what they had to say.

May 9, 2025 SAAR

April 2025 SAAR

The April 2025 SAAR came in at 17.3 million units, down 3.1% from last month but up 7.8% from April 2024. Even with a slight month-over-month decline from the short-term peak of last month’s SAAR, April 2025 still saw the second-highest SAAR since April 2021. This highlights the strong demand in the current market as consumers are motivated to purchase a vehicle before potential tariff-related price increases. Mercer Capital expects the May 2025 SAAR to come in lower, as we believe demand was pulled into March and April with dealers across the country advertising some form of “pre-tariff pricing.” We’ll be keeping tabs on the market to keep you up to date on tariffs and other industry-relevant news.

May 2, 2025 Special Topics Valuation Issues

Estate Planning for Auto Dealers

After the initial uncertainty brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, auto dealerships have experienced record performance. However, profits have receded towards more normalized levels just as a significant cliff for estate tax planning looms at the end of 2025. It’s time for auto dealers to revisit their estate planning.

April 17, 2025 Special Topics Valuation Issues

April 2025 Auto Industry Tariff Update

Where Do We Stand and What Does That Mean for My Dealership?

The United States automotive industry has been navigating an increasingly uncertain landscape since the 2024 presidential election. Since taking office, the current administration announced a series of tariffs that introduced uncertainty for both manufacturers and dealers. If the newly imposed tariffs remain in effect, dealerships across the United States could face near- and long-term headwinds. In this week’s post, we cover how these changes may affect sales volumes, profitability, and auto dealer valuations.

April 4, 2025 SAAR

March 2025 SAAR

The March 2025 SAAR came in at 17.8 million units, up a staggering 11.0% from last month and 13.3% from March 2024. March 2025 saw the highest SAAR since April 2021, reflecting not only the recent trend of strong consumer demand but also the additional demand generated by consumers motivated to purchase a vehicle to avoid potential tariff-related price increases. Mercer Capital expects the April 2025 SAAR to come much lower as we believe demand was pulled forward into March. Based on the reaction from equity markets, the magnitude of the tariffs has caught the global economy by surprise. Over the next several months, the industry will shift and react to the tariffs, with uncertainty surrounding electric vehicle tax policy on the back burner.

March 20, 2025 Public Auto Dealers

Q4 2024 Earnings Calls

Auto Industry Volumes and Per-Unit Profitability Continue to Normalize

Auto retailer executives had a lot to say during the Q4 2024 earnings calls. In this week’s post, we recount three major themes from the public auto companies’ earnings calls.

March 7, 2025 SAAR

February 2025 SAAR

The February 2025 SAAR came in at 16.0 million units, up 3.2% from last month and 2.1% from February 2024. While February typically records one of the lowest sales volumes each year, this month’s SAAR exceeded the average of the last five Februarys (approximately 15.3 million units). February 2025 performance reflected strength in consumer demand, primarily driven by improved inventory and incentive spending. Mercer Capital expects the March 2025 SAAR to come in around 16.0 million as consumers continue to be drawn in by a wider array of available inventory. Even after strong February sales, the industry will continue to face uncertainties surrounding import tariffs and electric vehicle tax policy over the next several months.

February 21, 2025 Mergers, Acquisitions, & Divestitures Public Auto Dealers Special Topics

Nissan’s Search for a Merger Partner

On December 23, 2024, Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. shook up the automotive world by announcing a memorandum of understanding (“MOU”) to explore a potential merger alongside Nissan’s partner Mitsubishi. However, the road to consolidation proved bumpier than expected, as negotiations unraveled due to disagreements over the merger structure. While the formal merger talks have been publicly shelved, the question remains: Does Nissan still need a strategic partner to secure its future? And what does this uncertainty mean for Nissan dealers navigating the industry’s shifting tides? In this week’s post, we explore the rationale of a Nissan merger and what this might mean for Nissan dealers if a merger agreement happens sometime in the next year or two.

February 7, 2025 SAAR

January 2025 SAAR

The January 2025 SAAR came in at 15.6 million units, down 7.5% from last month and up 3.8% from January 2024. January is typically one of the lowest months of sales volume each year, but as seasonal adjustments usually account for this, it is notable that this month’s SAAR dipped to the lowest point since January 2024. It is also worth mentioning that this month’s SAAR exceeded the average of the last five Januarys (approximately 15.4 million units). We expect the February 2025 SAAR to end up around 16.0 million as consumers continue to be drawn in by a wider array of available (and more affordable) inventory.