On February 27, 2017 the Wall Street Journal published an article titled “The Rise of a Global Oil-Price Guru”. Simply put, Gary Ross knows anyone and everyone in the energy world. From the west coast of California, east to the Arab Sheiks and beyond, there is no one better connected. While we do not claim to have the same network or prediction abilities as Ross, our predictions for oil prices come with a lower price tag (none at all) than Ross’ more than $50k consulting fee.
Since I gave up politics for Lent this year, I’ve had more time to keep up with the deeper recesses of the financial press, which led me to Warren Buffett’s annual letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett’s prose is a literary genre unto itself; a remarkably plain-spoken approach to making even the most complex and dull aspects of investment management simple and entertaining. If all “management letters” were penned as well, shareholders might actually read them. Perhaps that’s why they aren’t.
A few days ago the Wall Street Journal published an article discussing what the author described as “crazy” stock valuations, and in particular the inflated valuations of oil and gas stocks from the perspective of operating earnings ratios. While we certainly are believers that value is driven by future operating earnings, and that earnings in the energy sector have fallen precipitously since 2014, is this all that determines the market’s pricing of the S&P 500 energy sector? As we reflect on this for a moment, a few additional considerations came to mind that may explain these “crazy” valuations more fully.
As we do every quarter, we take a look at some of the earnings commentary of pacemakers in asset management to gain further insight into the challenges and opportunities developing in the industry.
Smaller public RIAs started and ended 2016 as a pack, but for about eight months performance was anything but similar. In what I can best describe as a wild ride to a close finish, at one point in July of 2016 Cohen & Steers (CNS) was up nearly 40% while Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS) was down over 30%. Seventy point divergences don’t happen very often, especially considering that, by Christmas of last year, the same spread narrowed to less than eight points.
Hardly a week goes by that we don’t get asked what we think are optimal qualities of an RIA merger partner. Answering that always feels a little like giving dating advice: different partners suit different partners. No one disputes that the industry is ripe for consolidation, but there’s no easy way to “swipe-right” on a target company’s ADV, and it’s pretty unlikely that sec.gov is going to have its own version of Tinder anytime soon. Nevertheless, in honor of today’s holiday, here are a few thoughts on what to think about when considering a merger partner.
There are four main components to refined product prices: (1) Input Prices (i.e. crude oil), (2) Wholesale Margins, (3) Retail Distribution Costs, and (4) Taxes. Generally, input prices and wholesale margins drive fluctuations in product prices as the last two are relatively stable. Thus, in order to understand refined product prices we consider the macroeconomics trends in the global oil and gas market which drive input prices.
In essence, RIAs may be both highly profitable and prospectively ephemeral. Balancing the particular risks and opportunities of a given investment management firm is fundamental to developing a valuation. If you haven’t already, read our whitepaper covering this balancing act in this week’s post.
Many operators and oil and gas service companies didn’t survive the last 20 months, and most of the news headlines focused on their story. For royalty owners, who might depend upon royalty checks for steady income, it was equally scary as their payments shrunk due to low oil prices which were magnified by lower production rates. However, the last 12 months have provided some relief. In post, we reflect on the effects of the market and valuation implications for royalty owners.
Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are publicly traded partnerships, which reap the tax benefits of a partnership and the liquidity benefits of a public company. In this post, we address both the history of MLPs and considerations when valuing them.
Investment strategies that screen for environmental, social, and governance criteria (ESG) is a still developing product niche that has, until recently, been more about talk than action. The pitch is that investing in businesses that demonstrate broad-based corporate responsibility provides a pathway to management teams who think long term, mitigate risk, and lead their industries. The beauty of an investment product like ESG is client stickiness.
Despite a rocky year for asset manager valuations, sector M&A was still strong. Total transactions were down about 10% from 2015 while aggregate deal value increased close to 20%. Several themes from the prior year also persisted as wealth management acquisitions remained robust and banks continued to play a pivotal role on both the buy-side and the sell-side.
On January 16, 2017, Noble Energy, Inc. announced the acquisition of all Clayton Williams Energy equity for approximately $2.7 billion in NBL stock and cash. Noble Energy is a global independent oil and gas exploration and production company. Their acquisition of CWEI demonstrates an effort to accelerate high margin growth by focusing capital in productive regions such as the Permian Basin.
All three publicly traded trust banks (BNY Mellon, State Street, and Northern Trust) outperformed the market in 2016, continuing their upward trajectory over the last few years but still lagging the broader indices since the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. Placing this recent comeback in its historical context reveals the headwinds these businesses have been facing in a low interest rate environment that has significantly compressed their money market fees and yields on fixed income investments.
2016 was a year to remember and a year to forget for many in the oil and gas industry. On the positive side, energy commodity prices curbed their downward, volatile nature by finishing the year at higher prices than where they started. In this post, we survey how the industry ended the year from production and supply to bankruptcies and transactions as we look to 2017.
Happy New Year 2017! Here are this past year’s 5 most popular posts from the RIA Valuation Insights Blog.
Over the past decade, we have been retained by several investment funds to assist them in responding to formal and informal SEC investigations regarding fair value measurement of portfolio investments. Reflecting back on those engagements yields a couple observations and reminders for funds and fund managers as they go through the quarterly valuation process.
As the second part to last week’s blogpost, the following section from Jay Wilson’s forthcoming book on FinTech describes ways to think about the valuation of robo-advisors, including some real world examples of technology based investment management platforms that transacted.
Despite the potential for FinTech innovation within wealth management, significant uncertainty still exists regarding whether these innovations will displace traditional wealth management business models. In this two part blogpost, excerpted from our new book on FinTech forthcoming from Wiley in early 2017, we look at the potential of Robo-Advisors and offer some thoughts on valuation.
Each quarter, Mercer Capital’s Exploration & Production Industry newsletter provides an overview of the E&P sector, including world demand and supply, public market performance, valuation multiples for public companies, and a region focus. This quarter we focus on the Bakken Shale.
Royalty trusts, like the rest of the oil and gas industry, have been hit hard. In this post, we examine their performance over the last couple of years and consider the impact of bankruptcy.
As inspiration for fair deals and perfect swaps, we looked into Midland State Bancorp’s recent acquisition of Sterling National Bank’s trust department. From what we’ve read about the deal, it appears both parties walked away with what they wanted.
As the calendar year draws to a close, many private companies consider the issue of dividends and dividend policy. Originally published in his book, Unlocking Private Company Wealth, Z. Christopher Mercer, FASA, CFA, ABAR provides an introduction to dividends and dividend policy. He begins with the obvious observation that no matter how informal, your company has a dividend policy.
As difficult it is to imagine a valuable car such as the Ferrari 250GT SWB that we feature in this post being forgotten, what we see more commonly are forgotten buy-sell agreements, collecting dust in desk drawers. Unfortunately, these contracts often turn into liabilities, instead of assets, once they are exhumed, as the words on the page frequently commit the signatories to obligations long forgotten. So we encourage our clients to review their buy-sell agreements regularly, and have compiled some of our observations about how to do so in the whitepaper. We hope this will be helpful to you; call us if you have any questions.