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Author Archives: Nikki McNeel

October 2022 SAAR

The October 2022 SAAR was 14.9 million units, up 12.7% from October 2021 and up 9.8% from last month. This month’s SAAR comes as a bit of a surprise, as the last three months’ sales pace settled at around 13.4 million units and seemed to have stabilized at a short-term equilibrium. However, meaningful improvements in inventory balances and other tailwinds like natural disaster-related demand contributed to the second-highest monthly SAAR total this year. For perspective, from 2014-2019, there were zero months where SAAR was below this recent high in the inventory-constrained 2022.

What Do the Midterm Elections Mean for You & Your Family Business?

The 2022 midterm elections are here, and, as usual, one of the most significant differences between Democrats and Republicans is tax policy. While voters are contemplating significant issues ranging from inflation, immigration, and gun control, the election outcome will also influence which tax priorities Democratic and Republican lawmakers will pursue over the next few years.

Market Insights on Auto Dealer M&A Activity

A few weeks ago, I sat down with Kevin Nill of Haig Partners to discuss the current state of the M&A market and other timely trends in the auto dealer industry.  Specifically, we discussed some of the movements in Blue Sky multiples for various franchises and interpret the range of multiples that Haig Partners recently published with the release of their Second Quarter 2022 Haig Report.  

Takeaways from Two Recent Energy Events in Dallas

In the past week, several energy-related gatherings have been held in the Dallas area. We attended two of them: the D-CEO Energy Awards and Hart Energy’s Energy Capital Conference. We had numerous discussions with company representatives, dealmakers, and service providers.  The marketplace appears excited about the potential for the upcoming year amid challenges. At both events, several industry themes were evident including: the energy industry has strong fundamentals, capital markets are showing signs of a resurgence in needed capital, and energy security is returning to the lexicon.

Mid-Year 2022 Auto Dealer Industry Newsletter Release

We are pleased to release our latest edition of Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry Newsletter. The newsletter features a commentary on industry data from mid-year 2022.  Additionally, this issue includes two timely articles: “2022: How Is the Auto Industry Doing and What Does the Future Hold?” and “Earnings Calls: Executive Summary.”

Book Review:  The Future of Automotive Retail (Part 2)

In this week’s blog, we continue our review of the book The Future of Automotive Retail by Steve Greenfield.   It covers the changing trends of consumer behavior and technology that will likely continue to shape the automotive retailing experience for decades to come.  In part one of the series, we discussed the “convenience economy,” including predictions of changes to power sources and vehicle production.

In Part two of this series we discuss vehicle ownership, autonomous vehicles, connected cars, service and repairs, and the proposed future of the auto dealership.

Private Equity Wants Your Family Business

For many family business leaders we talk with, “private equity” is a four-letter word. In this post, we identify a couple of potential “pros” for private equity that family business directors should be aware of and also confirm a couple of the well-known “cons” to accepting private equity investment.

Bakken Regains Its Footing

The economics of Oil & Gas production vary by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford, Permian, Bakken, and Marcellus and Utica plays. The cost of producing oil and gas depends on the geological makeup of the reserve, depth of reserve, and cost to transport the raw crude to market. We can observe different costs in different regions depending on these factors. This quarter we take a closer look at the Bakken.

Book Review: The Future of Automotive Retail (Part 1)

Over the next two blogs, we will review the book The Future of Automotive Retail by Steve Greenfield.  This book discusses changes in trends of consumer behavior and technology that will likely continue to shape the auto dealer retailing experience for decades to come. In part one of this Blog series, we review the discussions and predictions caused by the “convenience economy,” including changes to power sources and vehicle production.

Considerations in Merger Transactions

This week we welcome Nick Heinz, ASA to the Family Business Director Blog. Nick is a Senior Vice President at Mercer Capital and a member of the firm’s Transaction Advisory team. This article originally appeared as part of an ongoing series, Buy-Side Considerations, from Mercer Capital’s Transaction Advisory team and highlights key considerations for family businesses looking to engage in a merger.

Bakken M&A

M&A transaction activity in the Bakken increased through year-to-date 2022 relative to the same time period in 2021 and consisted of a handful of large deals and numerous small deals. In this post, we discuss Bakken transaction activity as a whole and also dive deeper into the two largest Bakken transactions made this year.

Market Indications of RIA Value are Mixed, To Say the Least

The differential in interest in public investment management businesses and private investment management businesses isn’t sustainable. Will higher interest rates eventually wear down leveraged acquirers, as they have in other growth-and-income sectors? Will PE investors start to question the merits of trading companies from fund to fund instead of testing valuations in the open market? Will the public RIA group follow Pzena’s lead and go private? Or will public investors’ newfound interest in dividend stocks lead them to RIAs? It’s tough to forecast a public RIA resurgence but never say never.

Blue Sky Multiples Remain Flat as Earnings Plateau

Interest rates are up, gas prices are volatile, inflation is rampant and vehicle affordability, GDP, and the stock market are down. How have auto dealers belied all of these negative headwinds to produce strong earnings? The simple answer is that dealers have been able to pass on price increases to consumers and have benefitted from more lean cost structures in the wake of the pandemic when they had to cut all costs possible to the bone. In this week’s blog, we consider these trends and analyze Blue Sky values and multiples over the past few years thanks to info provided by Haig Partners.

What’s Lurking on Your Family’s Balance Sheet?

Any good CFO or Controller knows what’s on their business’ balance sheet, including cash, inventory, property, and debt. But for enterprising families, it is often necessary to go one step further and ask what’s on the family’s balance sheet? It may be your great uncle’s antique car collection, a ski chalet shared by you and your family, or rare art that adorns your office. Whatever it may be, there are three things we think you should consider regarding your more esoteric family balance sheet items: valuation, diversification, and allocation.

Reconciling Real-World Transactions With the Fair Market Value Standard

When business owners think about the value of their firm, they frequently think in terms of the dollar value that they believe they could sell the business for in an arms’ length transaction. However, the nuances of real world transaction terms in the investment management industry can often obscure what’s being paid for the business on a cash-equivalent basis. In this blog post, we explore various transaction structures employed in the industry and their relationship to fair market value.

What Should We Do About Estate Taxes?

Most family business owners desire to provide financially for their family. Due to this, one of the widespread concerns of these owners is the ability to transfer ownership of the family business to the next generation in the most tax-efficient way. In this post, we explain the importance of understanding the concept of fair market value when evaluating an estate planning strategy and some potential next steps to take to ensure the estate plan accomplishes the desired goals.

August 2022 SAAR

The August SAAR was 13.2 million units, down 1.1% from last month but up 0.7% from August 2021. This month’s data release, marks the third month in a row that the SAAR has been in the low 13 million-unit range, with the metric seemingly having stabilized in the short term. To illustrate this trend, over the last four months the average SAAR has been 13.1 million units.

Now that the August data has been released, we have much more visibility to what the full year SAAR might look like.

How Does Your RIA’s Client Base Affect Your Firm’s Value, and What Can You Do to Improve It?

We’re often asked by clients what the range of multiples for RIAs is in the current market.  At any given time, the range can be quite wide between the least attractive firms and the most attractive firms.  The factors that affect where a firm falls within that range include the firm’s margin, scale, growth rate of new client assets, effective realized fees, personnel, geographic market, firm culture, and client demographics (among others). 

In this post, we focus in on the client demographics factor, explain how buyers view client demographics, and explore steps some firms are taking to reach a broader client base.

Themes from Q2 2022 Earnings Calls

This week we focus on the key takeaways from Oilfield Service Operators’ Q2 2022 earnings calls. We discuss how COVID impacted the OFS industry, a shift in strategy due to limited supply, and the industry’s outlook in the face of a potential recession. 

What We’ve Been Reading

How to get a non-family CEO and a family ownership team on the same page regarding financial goals, dealing with a family member who needs to step down from leadership, and the turnaround story of family-owned Radio Flyer are some of what we’ve been reading about as fall approaches. In this week’s post, we share a few interesting articles you and your family board members may enjoy.

Rideshare: Friend or Foe to Auto Dealers and Manufacturers?

In this post, we focus on the impact of Uber and Lyft on the auto industry as a whole, particularly as compared to initial concerns. We address the questions: “How has the rise of rideshare giants affected the auto industry?”, “How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect ridesharing?” and “What can we expect from the rideshare industry going forward?”