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Author Archives: Nikki McNeel

State of the Industry From the Tennessee Automotive Association Convention

Last week we attended the Annual Tri-State Convention for the Automotive Associations of Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama.  The event provided a great opportunity to discuss trends in the automotive industry with industry participants and dealers from different manufacturers and geographic areas.  In this blog, we discuss some of the trends discussed last week, including a variety of topics that we have covered before in this space. We also incorporate highlights of a presentation from noted industry analyst Glenn Mercer (no affiliation with Mercer Capital) regarding the “Dealership of Tomorrow.”

Is Your Family Business Worthy of Its Name?

Unlike McDonald’s franchisees, directors and managers of family businesses are not required to undergo a renewal procedure to maintain access to the family’s human and financial resources. However, pretending that you had to is a good exercise for managers and directors. What evidence do you have to support your decision to continue managing the family’s wealth? Do you have a regular reporting procedure in place that takes those elements into account? In this week’s blog post, we provide some broad elements that should be considered for any stewardship reporting model.

What’s the Price of Growth?

Growth at a reasonable price (margin) is an old concept in investment management, but it bears extending to practice management as well. RIAs are fortunate not to have to spend billions on factories, only to grieve them as “money furnaces” (sorry Elon). But that doesn’t mean RIAs don’t have the same imperative to invest in the people who compose their businesses.

The Importance of a Quality of Earnings Study

Acquirers of companies can learn a valuable lesson from the same approach that pro sports teams take in evaluating players. Prior to draft night, teams have events called combines where they put prospective players through tests to more accurately assess their potential. In this scenario, the team is akin to the acquirer or investor and the player is the seller. While a player may have strong statistics in college, this may not translate to their future performance at the next level. So it’s important for the team to dig deeper and analyze thoroughly to reduce the potential for a draft bust and increase the potential for drafting a future all-star.

A similar process should take place when acquirers examine acquisition targets. Historical financial statements may provide little insight into the future growth and earnings potential for the underlying company. One way that acquirers can better assess potential targets is through a process similar to a sports combine called a Quality of Earnings Study (QoE).

An Overview of Auto Finance

Auto dealers across the country rely on their Finance and Insurance (F&I) departments for a significant portion of their revenue. While top-line revenue in these departments typically makes up a small portion of a new car dealership’s total revenue mix, they have much better margins than their selling division counterparts. Third-party lenders play a larger role in the financing process for used dealers who do not have their own captive finance operations, and the economics are typically different from their new vehicle-selling counterparts.

We look at the layout and current state of the auto finance industry, as well as quotes from public auto executives about the current financing environment in this blog post.

The Importance of a Quality of Earnings Study

Acquirers of companies can learn a valuable lesson from the same approach that pro sports teams take in evaluating players. Prior to draft night, teams have events called combines where they put prospective players through tests to more accurately assess their potential. In this scenario, the team is akin to the acquirer or investor and the player is the seller. While a player may have strong statistics in college, this may not translate to their future performance at the next level. So it’s important for the team to dig deeper and analyze thoroughly to reduce the potential for a draft bust and increase the potential for drafting a future all-star.

A similar process should take place when acquirers examine acquisition targets. Historical financial statements may provide little insight into the future growth and earnings potential for the underlying company. One way that acquirers can better assess potential targets is through a process similar to a sports combine called a Quality of Earnings Study (QoE).

Permian Production Remains Strong

The economics of Oil & Gas production vary by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford, Permian, Bakken, and Marcellus and Utica plays. The cost of producing oil and gas is determined by the reserve’s geological makeup, depth, and the cost of transporting raw crude to market. Depending on these factors, we can see different costs in different regions. We take a closer look at the Permian in this post.

Production growth in the Permian continued to exceed growth in the Eagle Ford, Appalachia, and Bakken over the past year as the basin remains one of the most economical regions in U.S. energy production.  With the surge in commodity prices over the past quarter, it might have been expected that producers would start bringing more rigs online, leading to more production growth than what we saw.  However, as upstream companies have signaled, it may not be realistic to expect such increased deployment of capital from public operators in the near future, though private operators may very well move to take advantage of the higher price environment.  With greater emphasis on returning cash to shareholders, continued levels of relatively low investment in growth capital may be expected.  However, its significantly large contribution to total energy production continues to make the Permian a steady source of growth for overall U.S. oil and gas production.

Compensation Structures for RIAs: Part II

There are three basic components of compensation for investment management firms: Base salary/Benefits, Variable Compensation/Bonus, and Equity Compensation. This week we focus on Equity Compensation.

Equity incentives serve an important function by aligning the interests of employees with that of the company and its shareholders. While base salary and annual variable compensation serve as shorter-term incentives, equity incentives serve to motivate employees to grow the value of the business over a longer time period and play an important role in increasing an employee’s ties to the firm and promoting retention. While implementing an equity incentive plan will typically have a dilutive impact on existing shareholders, a properly structured plan will facilitate attracting and retaining the right talent and motivating participating employees to grow the value of the business over time. In that sense, a well-structured equity incentive plan is accretive to existing shareholders, not dilutive.

Valuation and M&A Trends in the Auto Dealer Industry

Scott Womack recently sat down with Tony Karabon of DCG Acquisitions to discuss trends in the auto dealer industry such as transaction volume and multiples along with the implications of an agency model for OEMs. DCG Acquisitions is a national, full-service mergers and acquisitions firm representing buyers and sellers of automobile dealerships.

Bear Market Silver Lining? An Estate Planning Opportunity

The risk of a recession is growing, and inflation in May reached a new four-decade high. Companies and consumers alike are feeling the pinch and battening down the hatches in anticipation of stormy weather, with markets reflecting less-than-optimistic expectations. Stocks are in the red outside of the energy sector. Lower broad market pricing translates to lower family business valuations. So, what? A market downturn, on the other hand, presents an opportunity for family businesses planning long-term intrafamily transfers and gifting plans to significantly reduce their estate and gift tax exposure. We’ll show you how in this post.

M&A in the Permian: Acquisitions Slow as Valuations Grow

Transaction activity in the Permian Basin cooled off this past year, with the transaction count decreasing to 21 deals over the past 12 months, a decline of 6 transactions, or 22%, from the 27 deals that occurred over the prior 12-month period.  This level is in line with the 22 transactions that occurred in the 12-month period ended mid June 2020. Read more in this week’s post.

Compensation Structures for RIAs: Part I

Compensation models are the subject of a significant amount of hand-wringing for RIA principals, and for good reason. Out of all the decisions RIA principals need to make, compensation programs often have the single biggest impact on an RIA’s P&L and the financial lives of its employees and shareholders.

In part one of this series, we focus our attention on the variable compensation component. In the coming posts, we’ll address additional compensation considerations such as equity compensation options and allocation processes.

May 2022 SAAR

The May 2022 SAAR was 12.7 million units, down 12.6% from last month and 24.9 % from May 2021. The SAAR for this month fell short of expectations, and the drop in May’s sales pace makes it more likely that the second quarter of 2022 will not improve on the first quarter’s average SAAR of 14.1 million units. The SAAR for May was low due to low inventory across the country.

In this week’s blog post, we compare the stock prices of Ford, Stellantis, and GM to the timing of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 in an attempt to answer the question “have higher interest rates hurt auto manufacturer stock prices?”

Recession, Expectations & Value

Corporate executives are considering how a recession would affect their businesses due to the current uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. How will your family business fare in the event of a recession, and how are expectations for the future affecting the value of your family business right now? We discuss this impact in terms of value in this week’s blog post by categorizing expectations into three primary categories: cash flow, risk & return, and growth.

The Importance of a Quality of Earnings Study

As we’ve been writing in recent blog posts, consolidation efforts in the RIA space are facing multiple headwinds. Among them, market conditions and inflation are motivating buyers to scrutinize profit estimates more than ever. In that light, we thought our readers would appreciate this guest post by our colleague, Jay D. Wilson, Jr., CFA, ASA, CBA, who works with banks and FinTechs. We’re getting more requests for QoE assessments from both the buy-side and sell-side (the latter wanting to buttress their CIMs).

Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

Mercer Capital has its finger on the pulse of the minerals market.  An important trend has been the rise of mineral aggregators, which have largely supplanted the trusts as the primary method of publicly traded minerals ownership.

In this updated Study, Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value.  We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

A Look Into The Family Business Director’s Summer Reading Catalogue

We at Family Business Director hope you all had a relaxing and enjoyable Memorial Day Weekend. This week’s post is a collection of thought-provoking “summer reading” material. We hope you enjoy these pieces on a beach or by a pool, preferably while sipping a tall cool beverage. Happy reading!

Themes from Q1 Earnings Calls

This week we take a look at the key takeaways from the OFS Q1 2022 earnings calls. Themes from these calls include short-cycle projects to bolster near-term production, margin expansion, and the growing importance of relationships with private operators. Read more in this week’s post.

Private Capital Better Than Public for the RIA Community?

Valuation professionals generally accept that public market capital is cheaper and leads to higher valuations than can be achieved by closely-held businesses. The words and actions of market participants who invest in RIAs do not necessarily align with this belief.

Specialty Finance Acquisitions

Bank acquisitions of specialty lenders picked up notably last year amid efforts to deploy excess liquidity and grow loans. The rationale for a bank acquiring a specialty lender is intuitive: higher yielding loans funded with cheap deposits. While these deals are not without risk, for the right buyer they can provide a new growth channel and help diversify revenue and earnings.

Peloton, Planet Fitness, and Family Business

Think back to March 2020.  Many businesses and operations saw immediate stoppages and closures with no idea when they could restart. The fitness industry was no exception. Planet Fitness, the gym operator, completely shut down its locations and its stock plummeted. Peloton Interactive saw sales surge for its at-home exercise spin-bike and its stock soar. These two businesses entered very different seasons at the onset of the COVID-19 lockdowns and slowdown. Planet Fitness was facing a sudden and bitterly cold winter, while Peloton was spinning its way into summer.

We think there are three lessons that can prevent your family business from pedaling in place: understand what season your business is in, be prepared for slow-downs, and diversify prudently. Read more in this week’s post.

Q1 2022 Earnings Calls

It’s earnings call season again. Themes from the Q1 2022 earnings calls were affordability issues, managing stores as a portfolio, the health of the franchise dealer model, and who repairs electric vehicle components and what that means for dealerships. All this against a backdrop of the continued inventory shortage makes for an interesting post. Read more here.