John Murphy’s move from Wall Street to Haig Partners reflects a shift from quarter-to-quarter forecasting toward long-term, research-driven strategy for dealership operators. He sees structural valuation support in the franchise model and significant untapped earnings potential through lifecycle customer retention and disciplined capital allocation.

January 2026 SAAR declined to 14.9 million units, reflecting seasonal weakness, weather disruption, and lingering effects from Q4 tariff and EV credit dynamics. While transaction prices and consumer spending remain firm, brand-level inventory divergence and affordability pressures are shaping margin outlooks for dealers.

Auto retail has always been cyclical. While headlines often focus on the why (e.g. interest rates, inventory levels, or near-term economic uncertainty), seasonality remains one of the most consistent forces shaping monthly auto sales performance. Over the past decade, even amid supply chain disruptions and changing consumer behavior, the industry’s calendar-driven rhythm has remained remarkably durable.