The August SAAR was 13.2 million units, down 1.1% from last month but up 0.7% from August 2021. This month’s data release, marks the third month in a row that the SAAR has been in the low 13 million-unit range, with the metric seemingly having stabilized in the short term. To illustrate this trend, over the last four months the average SAAR has been 13.1 million units.
Now that the August data has been released, we have much more visibility to what the full year SAAR might look like.
CHIPS-Plus Act Passes: What Does That Mean for Auto Dealers?
The July 2022 SAAR was 13.3 million units, an improvement from last month’s 13.0 million units but down 10.2% from July 2021’s rate of 14.7 million units. The SAAR continues to reflect depressed sales rates as supply chain shortages restrict volumes across the United States. This week we briefly discuss the July 2022 SAAR but focus primarily on the passing of the CHIPS-Plus bill and how it might affect auto dealers.
Status Quo or Winds of Change?
The first half of 2022 is behind us, and with school about to start, report cards will be here before we know it. In that same light, the auto industry has published its statistics for the first six months. This post reviews predictions by industry analysts (and us) made at the beginning of the year by analyzing several key metrics. Additionally, we discuss threats that arose during the first half of 2022 and their impact on the auto industry for the remainder of the year and perhaps longer. Finally, we offer a few predictions for the second half of 2022.
Quantifying Pent-Up Demand
The June SAAR was 13 million units, up 2.3% from last month but down 16% compared to June 2021. This month’s release closes out the second quarter of the year, bringing the total Q2 2022 SAAR to 13.4 million units.
Can Auto Dealers Continue to Outperform OEMs?
The May 2022 SAAR was 12.7 million units, down 12.6% from last month and 24.9 % from May 2021. The SAAR for this month fell short of expectations, and the drop in May’s sales pace makes it more likely that the second quarter of 2022 will not improve on the first quarter’s average SAAR of 14.1 million units. The SAAR for May was low due to low inventory across the country.
In this week’s blog post, we compare the stock prices of Ford, Stellantis, and GM to the timing of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 in an attempt to answer the question “have higher interest rates hurt auto manufacturer stock prices?”
The April 2022 SAAR was 14.3 million units, up 6.5% from 13.4 million in March but down 21.9% from the recent high April 2021 SAAR of 18.3 million units. We dig into the comparison of the last three April SAAR figures (’20, ’21, and ’22) in this post, as dynamic conditions resulted in three very different narratives surrounding the SAAR.
The March 2022 SAAR was 13.3 million units, down 5.3% from 14.1 million in February and down 24.4% from March 2021’s SAAR of 17.6 million units. This drop in the SAAR is a product of several factors. We dig into the low magnitude of the seasonal adjustment and ongoing supply chain issues in this post.
The February SAAR was 14.1 million units, down 6.4% from last month and 11.7% below this time last year. The 2022 Q1 SAAR is expected to be the highest since Q2 2021 when the vehicle inventory shortage started to fully take hold. While the seasonally adjusted annual rate has certainly improved from the lows of late 2021, raw sales numbers tell a different story. Read more about it in this week’s post.
SAAR reached a seven month high in January, totaling 15.0 million units on an annualized basis. SAAR was up 20.0% from last month but down 10.4% from January 2021. While the SAAR certainly improved, raw sales volume in January was the lowest it has been since April 2020. Read more about it in this week’s post.
What trends can we expect to see in 2022 for the auto industry? What trends will we see “less” of? What trends will we see “more” of? In this post, we examine some of these trends and offer some predictions for industry conditions in 2022.
The December SAAR totaled just 12.44 million units, down 3.5% from last month and 23.7% from December 2020. Inventory shortages, supply chain issues, and consistently high demand have been commonplace in the auto industry since the summer. That being the case, December’s low SAAR should not surprise many. In this week’s post, we discuss inventories, transaction prices, electric pickup trucks, and the outlook for January 2022.
This month’s SAAR came in below expectations as the industry experienced only slight inventory improvement from the historic lows of September and October. For our last SAAR blog of 2021 we provide some commentary on what seemed to work well for auto dealers in 2021 and what changes might be around for a while.
October 2021 SAAR was just shy of 13.0 million, as new light vehicle sales saw their first month-to-month gain since April. The October SAAR is up 6.3% from last month but remains 20.8% lower than last October. Auto dealers began the month with record low inventory levels of 972,000 units, and low inventories continue to keep car buying activity constrained.
September 2021 SAAR was 12.2 million, dropping for the fifth consecutive month amidst an ongoing inventory shortage. The September SAAR was the lowest since May 2020’s 12.1 million units but has not fallen near the COVID-19 pandemic low of 8.6 million units in April of 2020. Tight inventories limited both fleet and retail sales in September, which has been the same case over the last four months. Fleet sales continue to fall as a percent of total sales, making up just 12% over the last month as higher profit retail sales continue to be prioritized.
August 2021 SAAR was 13.1 million units, significantly lower than August of 2020 at 15.2 million units and lower than last month’s figure of 14.6 million units. This level of sales is the lowest recorded since June 2020’s 13.0 million during the earlier stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. August’s sales rates reduced the year-to-date SAAR to 16.1 million units from last month’s end total of 16.5 million units.
The July 2021 SAAR was 14.8 million units, roughly flat compared to July 2020, but down 12% from July 2019. SAAR was expected to fall for the third straight month, but this figure is lower than many experts predicted in June. In this week’s post, we dig into the numbers.
The June 2021 SAAR totaled 15.4 million units, which is up 12.4% compared to June 2020 (the lowest June figure in recent memory due to the COVID-19 pandemic) but down 9.9% from May 2021. In this post, we discuss the June SAAR number, the ongoing microchip shortage, the hot market for used cars, and what all this means to dealers.
After three straight months of impressive gains, the SAAR fell 9.6% in May from 18.8 million units to 17.0 million units. The summer is typically a strong season for auto sales, but several supply-side factors have limited the availability of vehicles over the last month.
SAAR has continued its impressive run in 2021, increasing for the second straight month to 18.5 million. This is a 3.1% increase from March 2021. As previously mentioned, comparing spring 2021 SAAR to 2020 does not hold much merit, especially in April which experienced the weakest sales of the pandemic in 2020. Compared to April 2019, a better comparison in our view, April 2021 is up 12.1%. But the industry faces headwinds: the shortage of computer chips. In this post, we break down what all this might mean.
After a tumultuous February due to weather conditions, March SAAR has bounced back with a vengeance. March SAAR of 17.75 million units is the second-highest of all time for the month, just shy of March 2000. There are two main factors driving this increase. While the winter storms had a negative impact on February SAAR, it likely caused pent-up demand that helped drive sales in March. Beyond simple delays, flooding forced some to replace damaged vehicles. Secondly, the Biden administration passed a Covid-19 stimulus bill at the beginning of March, and $1,400 paychecks hit many Americans’ wallets. This influx of cash may have also spurred a massive increase in vehicle sales.
Several Factors Put Pressure on February SAAR, Contributing to a 5.4% Decline from January
As we previewed in our January SAAR blog, February SAAR (a measure of Light-Weight Vehicle Sales: Auto and Light Trucks) declined as expected to 15.7 million from 16.6 million the previous month. This is a decline of 6.6% from the same period last year. In this post, we discuss the factors that contributed to this decline and expectations for March.
SAAR Hit Highest Levels Since the Pandemic Began, but Several Factors Could Hinder February’s Growth Prospects
January 2021 SAAR (a measure of Light-Weight Vehicle Sales: Auto and Light Trucks) increased to 16.6 million from 16.2 million in December. Though this is a decline of 1.4% from the same period last year, this is the highest that SAAR has been since the pandemic began. Light truck sales were behind this growth, as they captured 77.8% of all new vehicles sold in the past month. Despite January’s peak, two significant events could hinder February’s outcome.
2021 Predictions for Auto Dealers
Heading into 2021, we’re going to make some SAAR predictions. Although they may or may not prove true in 2021, we believe this exercise is beneficial for auto dealers who should be looking forward to what the year might bring and prepare themselves should these trends materialize.
SAAR Declined to 15.6 million, Primarily Driven by a Decline in the Number of Selling Days for the Month
After steady increases, SAAR (a measure of Light-Weight Vehicle Sales: Auto and Light Trucks) experienced its first notable decline since April, dropping to 15.6 million from 16.3 million in October. November 2020 is off of the same period in 2019 by 8.4%, and through 11 months of the year, new light-vehicle sales are down 16.7% compared to the same period last year. The calendar differences are important to note for this month with November 2020 only having 23 selling days relative to 26 days in November 2019.