The first quarter of 2022 marked the most volatile period since the first quarter of 2020.  The quarter began with significant deterioration in the market’s outlook for growth stocks, particularly those lacking demonstrable earning power.  Then, a geopolitical crisis, building for some time, intensified with the invasion of a European country, roiling markets ranging from commodities to equities.  Last, the Federal Reserve announced, as expected, a 25 basis point change in its benchmark rate and telegraphed six more rate increases in 2022, taking the Federal Funds rate to nearly 2.00% by year-end 2022.  In a speech on March 21, 2022, though, Chairman Powell suggested a greater likelihood that future Fed moves may occur in 50 basis point, rather than 25 basis point, increments to combat inflation, which mirrors the position taken by Governor Bullard in dissenting to the Fed’s 25 basis point rate change at the mid-March meeting.

The following tables summarize key metrics we track regarding equities, fixed income, and commodity markets leading up to the invasion of Ukraine on February 23, 2022 and thereafter.

Equity Indices

Index data per S&P Capital IQ Pro

Treasury Rates

Treasury yields per FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Debt Spreads

Corporate Credit Spreads per FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CMBS spreads per ICE Index Platform


Oil price represents West Texas Intermediate; WTI prices per FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Corn & wheat prices per Bloomberg

Residential Mortgages

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