A weekly update on issues important to the Investment Management industry
Global M&A activity has plummeted, and RIA consolidators have seen skyrocketing debt costs and eroding capital positions. Despite this, RIA M&A continues with little abatement. In this post, we dive into the factors supporting the relative strength of the RIA M&A market.
Steve Sanduski sat down with Matt Crow to talk about the state of the RIA industry for Steve’s Barron’s Advisor Podcast. In the episode, Steve and Matt explore the main drivers of the recent M&A environment for RIAs, the pros and cons of consolidation, and when selling to a consolidator makes sense instead of pursuing internal succession. Enjoy!
The independent trust industry has been flourishing, despite market turbulence, due to increased demand for trust administration services, the relative resilience of trust company fees, and demographic shifts favoring wealth growth. Companies are adapting to changes in the term structure of interest rates, benefiting from fee structures that provide stability in adverse market conditions, and capitalizing on the expanding pool of high-net-worth individuals. With evolving trust laws, growth opportunities tied to generational wealth transfer, and the importance of effective succession planning, independent trust companies are poised for a promising future in the competitive financial landscape.
The first half of 2023 witnessed a minor decline in wealth management M&A deal volume, but an increase in total transacted AUM and deal size, fueled by a surge in the number of deals with AUM over $1 billion and RIA partnerships with private equity firms. This robust RIA deal activity demonstrates the resilience of the sector in contrast to a significant decrease in overall M&A transaction value across all industries. As RIAs continue to offer a growth strategy for strategic buyers and investors, it is imperative for sellers to identify their motivations, the type of partner they seek, and align their goals with the buyer’s strategy to ensure post-transaction satisfaction.
The second quarter of 2023 saw share prices for asset and wealth management firms reflect the broader market’s growth, particularly following the S&P 500’s transition into a bull market in June. However, smaller asset managers underperformed compared to their larger counterparts and the S&P 500, while earnings multiples for publicly traded RIAs saw an 8.8% increase due to a favorable interest rate environment and higher AUM balances. The upcoming report on Q2 M&A activity is set to provide further insight into these trends, and while comparisons with closely held RIAs require caution, focusing on core business practices can offer protection from market volatility.
The much-ballyhooed consolidation trend in the RIA space is in a state of transition. Many acquisition platforms, fine-tuned in an era of zero interest rates and plentiful equity capital, are challenged in the post-ZIRP environment. Picking up on economist George Box’s observation that “all models are wrong, some are useful,” it’s worthwhile to survey the acquisition landscape and see what worked and what still works.
The secret of selling your RIA for peak pricing lies in the terms, but it’s not as straightforward as it may seem. Investment management transactions these days involve creative deal terms, risk-sharing and evolving market conditions that keep the market bustling, despite a host of economic challenges. From managing buyer-seller relationships to balancing risk and reward, we explore how industry players are adapting to maintain the appearance of peak pricing, while carefully guarding against market downturns. Find out how the art of the deal is being redefined and learn how to navigate the market to achieve your transaction goals.
The endowment effect has an impact on your RIA and oftentimes rules of thumb and recent headlines can lead to overvaluation. We share the nuances of valuing your firm, from assessing cash flow, growth, and risk to understanding the relevance of non-systematic risks. Uncover the factors that truly influence your RIA’s value and learn how an independent valuation can help you make informed decisions for your firm’s future.
RIA M&A activity has remained resilient through the first quarter of 2023, even as macro headwinds have emerged for the industry over the past year. Fidelity’s March 2023 Wealth Management M&A Transaction Report listed 68 deals through March 2023, up 19% from the 57 deals executed during the same period in 2022. These transactions represented $108.3 billion in AUM—a 21% increase from the first quarter of 2022.
RIAs started the quarter strong, but bank failures and interest rate hikes led to underperformance. Alternative asset managers, however, saw a last-minute rally during the final few days of the quarter, leading to this category outperforming the S&P during the period.
Last weekend I had a chance to join my dad for the annual Concours on Amelia Island, a fantastic gathering of car collectors and interesting automobiles of all kinds and eras. Coinciding with the weekend’s events were collector car auctions from all the major houses. A cursory review of prices paid and those auction sell-through rates suggest that there’s not much of a recessionary cloud hanging over the economy yet—at least not the economy inhabited by classic car buyers.
One car that caught my attention last weekend sold for a comparatively modest sum. The beautiful 1949 Packard convertible pictured above and featured at the RM Sotheby’s auction brought just under $45,000. If you’re younger than 65, you can be forgiven for not knowing Packard, as the marque was discontinued in the late 1950s. Bad markets and a bad transaction got the best of a great automaker, which is a cautionary tale for anyone planning the future of their business. This week, we review lessons from the consolidation of the automobile industry that have merit in the RIA space.
Early last year, as market conditions began to deteriorate, we (along with many others) predicted a coming slowdown in RIA M&A activity. Despite this environment, we were initially proven wrong: RIA M&A activity seemingly defied gravity as the pace of deal activity continued to keep pace with record 2021 levels. Now, the data suggests that deal activity is beginning to lose momentum. So, is the slowdown here to stay? What does this mean for the future of deal activity? In this week’s post, we discuss a few predictions for the year ahead.
Investment management is a people business, and there are aspects to a people business which do not yield to financial modeling. This week, Matt Crow addresses industry conundrums for which there are no easy answers.
2022 proved to be a challenging year for the stock market as a whole and the RIA industry. With persistent inflation, rising interest rates, a tight labor market, and heightened geopolitical tensions, it’s no surprise that this resulted in the decline of nearly all stock market sectors over the last year, which was especially true for the RIA industry. But with the prospect of a potential recession in 2023, the worst may still be ahead.
RIA M&A activity set new records in 2022, even as macro headwinds for the industry emerged throughout the year. However, deal volume was most significant in the first half of 2022 and began to cool in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter. Although transaction volume is still up over the prior year, there has been a decline in the size of these transactions.
The RIA industry saw a strong fourth quarter rally, driving most categories of publicly traded investment managers to outperform the S&P in the last quarter of the year. Alternative asset managers, however, declined from their early-November peak to perform in line with the S&P during this period. In our blog this week, we take a look at the performance of the RIA industry by sector and AUM in the fourth quarter of 2022.
It has become a tradition for the RIA team at Mercer Capital to end the blog year with a “unique” annual summary of industry events, riffing off Clement Clark Moore’s classic “A Visit from St. Nicholas.” We hope all of you in the investment management community are enjoying the holiday season and looking forward to the many opportunities of the new year. We look forward to hearing from you in 2023. For now, please enjoy the finest only holiday poem written about money management.
As the RIA team at Mercer Capital looks back on 2022 and ahead to next year, we’ve noticed a few themes emerge in discussions with clients that we expect to hear more about in the new year. Don’t think of these as predictions but simply the current state of market behavior—the implications of which will soon be evident.
Two weeks ago, Westwood Holdings Group completed its acquisition of Salient Partners’ asset management business. The deal is expected to add $4 billion in AUM and $31 million in annual revenue to WHG, pricing the total consideration at 1.5% of AUM and just under 2x revenue. Masking losses through acquisitions is typically a risky proposition, but this may be an instance where it actually makes sense.
Most of the 9/30 quarterly results are in, and public RIA performance was all over the map. Mostly, it was a rough quarter in a rough year. Sagging AUM led to revenue cuts which dropped straight to the bottom line. Some firms mitigated their downside by cutting bonus compensation and marking down earnout payments for acquisitions. We did a survey of a cross-section of asset and wealth management firms. Ultimately, it appears some business models are working better than others.
Before this year, yields didn’t move much and generally stayed between 2% and 8%, depending on the term and credit quality of the issuer. That all changed last November when the Federal Reserve and other central banks began raising interest rates to fight mounting inflationary pressures in the global economy. Now RIA aggregator bond yields are in the 6% to 14% range after fairly steady gains throughout this year.
While multiples for publicly traded asset and wealth managers have been hit hard this year, RIA valuations in the private market have been more resilient as a proliferation of professional buyers and capital in the space have supported deal activity and multiples. Nevertheless, market conditions are beginning to have an effect. Run rate performance for most firms is down significantly, and borrowing costs for leveraged consolidators are rising. The upward momentum in multiples that persisted throughout last year has stalled, and deal structures have started to shift more of the purchase price into contingent consideration to bridge increasingly divergent buyer and seller expectations. Read more about it in this week’s post.
The RIA industry extended its losing streak last quarter with all classes underperforming the S&P, which also continued its decline. The market itself is part of the problem as this industry is mostly invested in stocks and bonds, which have been down considerably since the first of the year. The additional underperformance for asset and wealth managers is likely attributable to lower industry margins as AUM and revenue fall with the market while labor costs continue to rise.
As September of 2022 came to a close, asset management is experiencing one of the most challenging years in history. Losses are both deep and widespread. The consequence is a tough quarterly letter to pen to investors, a hit to revenue, and an even bigger impact on profitability.
