Auto Dealer Valuation Insights

A weekly update on issues important to the Auto Dealer industry

Special Topics

The Latest on CDK Global Cybersecurity

Risks Come into Focus after Lurking in the Shadows

In an increasingly digital world, we’ve noted an increase in service providers catering to cybersecurity in a variety of ways. While no dealer gets excited about spending thousands of dollars to mitigate risks rather than grow profits, the CDK Global cyberattack may be a watershed moment for the industry.

Special Topics Valuation Issues

2024 State of Auto Finance

Origination, Delinquency, and Portfolio Trends

Explore the shifting landscape of auto finance as we compare the roles of captive finance companies and third-party lenders, track current market trends, and analyze credit quality and interest rates. From assessing the changing face of dealership profitability to exploring the increasing importance of finance and insurance departments, we offer our perspective on the industry’s development and changes in 2024 and potential future.

SAAR

May 2024 SAAR

The May 2024 SAAR was just shy of the 16 million mark, coming in at 15.9 million units, generally flat from last month (+0.8%) and reflecting year-over-year growth of 2.5%. Throughout the pandemic years, the auto industry was defined by volatility and uncertainty as inventory levels plummeted and transaction prices skyrocketed. In the first half of 2024, however, we have seen more stability in the SAAR as inventory levels rise and transaction prices moderate. As we move into the second half of 2024, we expect to see pressure on average transaction price and per-unit dealer profit as expanding inventory levels drive incentive spending higher.

Special Topics Valuation Issues

Mid-Year 2024 Review of the Auto Dealer Industry by Metrics

Tray Tables Up?

We’ve all been on an airline flight nearing the destination when the captain comes on the intercom and informs us that we are about to start our final descent, finish our beverages, and return our tray tables to the upright and locked position.  Instinctively, we know this announcement signals that we have been cleared for landing and will be landing soon.  As I reviewed the key automotive statistics this week in preparation for writing this blog, I couldn’t help but think, has the auto industry been cleared for landing after a three-year flight filled with periods of turbulence and smooth air? In this post, we discuss several key metrics we have tracked over the last several years: new vehicle profitability, the supply of new vehicles, average trade-in equity values of used vehicles, fleet sales, and vehicle miles traveled. 

Blue Sky Valuation Issues

What Is the Market Approach and How Is It Utilized for Auto Dealer Valuations?

A thoughtful business valuation of an auto dealership will likely rely on multiple approaches to derive an indication of value. While each approach should be considered, the approach(es) ultimately relied upon will depend on the unique facts and circumstances of the dealership and its operating conditions. We recently focused on the asset approach and the income approach for valuing auto dealerships. This post presents a broad overview of the market approach, the last of the three approaches considered in all business valuations.

Electric Vehicles Special Topics

Hybrid Vehicles and the Goldilocks Principle

EVs Get the Headlines While Consumers Are Getting Hybrids

For the past few years, electric vehicles (EVs) have been a huge talking point. While there has been plenty of consumer interest in EVs, there has been even more skepticism centered largely around range anxiety and upfront cost. If internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are porridge that is too cold, and EVs are perhaps too hot, hybrids, at least for now, appear to be “just right.” This post touches on recent developments with electric vehicles and how they are leading to a surge in demand for hybrids.

SAAR

April 2024 SAAR

The April 2024 SAAR was 15.7 million units, reflecting generally flat month-over-month (+1.1%) and year-over-year (+0.4%) growth. Over the last several months, we have seen more stability in the SAAR than we have seen since the pandemic. This stability will likely give confidence to dealers and consumers alike after years of volatility and uncertainty in transaction prices and vehicle availability. In this week’s post, we discuss inventory levels, increased incentive spending, average transaction prices, and per-unit dealer profits.

Blue Sky Special Topics Valuation Issues

One Dealer Is Not Like the Other

Independent Dealers Industry Segment Highlight

In August 2022, we wrote a blog about the Powersports dealer segment of the auto industry, comparing and contrasting it to the franchised dealers that we spend most of our time writing about.  This week, we highlight another segment of the auto dealer market: independent dealers. Read more about how independent dealers have specific nuances and factors that cause a greater impact to their success and profitability.

Valuation Issues

What Is the Income Approach and How Is It Utilized for Auto Dealer Valuations?

A thoughtful business valuation of an auto dealership will likely rely on multiple approaches to derive an indication of value. While each approach should be considered, the approach(es) ultimately relied upon will depend on the unique facts and circumstances of the dealership and its operating conditions. This week’s post presents a broad overview of the income approach, one of the three approaches considered in all business valuations. This analysis is incredibly important for auto dealerships to understand due to the expected future cash flows of most dealerships being the primary driver of value.

Electric Vehicles Litigation Special Topics Valuation Issues

2024 NADC Conference Key Takeaways

We’re back from the National Association of Dealer Counsel (“NADC”) annual member conference in Napa, California. The conference took place from Sunday, April 14th, to Tuesday, April 16th, and conference attendees included attorneys, auto dealer principals, in-house counsel, and vendors/service providers like us. It was great to see familiar faces, meet new people, and hear how several auto groups are faring in the current environment.

In this post, we provide a brief list of key takeaways from a few of the sessions we attended. We believe the topics covered are especially important for auto dealer counsel and their clients to watch throughout the remainder of the year and beyond.

Auto Dealerships

Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services to companies throughout the nation in the auto dealer industry.