Beyond the SAAR: What Really Drives Auto Dealership Value

Valuation Issues

Because the federal government has just reopened, the official data for the monthly light-vehicle SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) is not yet available. In the meantime, we invite you to download and review our whitepaper, Understand the Value of Your Auto Dealership.”


What the Whitepaper Covers, and Why It Matters to You

A Deep Dive Into Value Drivers

The valuation of a dealership is far more than “how many cars did we sell this month.” In the whitepaper, we explore the full ecosystem of dealer value: franchise rights, real estate, after-sales operations, fixed- vs. variable-cost structure, and management strength. We show how these components interact, where hidden risk lies, and how they signal value to buyers and sellers.

Understanding the Earnings Base

As we emphasized in our earlier piece, “Blue (Sky) Is in the Eye of the Beholder,” the multiple applied to earnings is only half the story — the other half is the quality and sustainability of earnings. The whitepaper walks through key adjustment items: owner compensation, rent or lease normalization, non-recurring items, LIFO inventory distortions, and how to derive a meaningful “ongoing earnings” figure versus the number on the dealer financial statement.

Applying Valuation Methods in the Auto Retail Context

Valuation theory is one thing; retail auto dealerships are another. We bring together the asset, income and market (Blue Sky) approaches, and illustrate how they apply in the dealer world. For example: real estate may be valued via asset approach, while goodwill (Blue Sky) uses market multiples applied to normalized earnings. The whitepaper gives you that bridge between classic valuation theory and dealership realities.

Keys to Timing & Strategic Planning

Whether you’re thinking of selling, acquiring, planning for succession, or simply benchmarking your business, timing and planning matter. The whitepaper outlines when a formal valuation makes sense, the influence of standard of value (fair market, investment value, fair value), and how strategic decisions (franchise expansion, facility upgrades, fixed-cost management) can move the needle on value.

What’s Changing in the Dealership Landscape

We don’t ignore context. Although we await this month’s SAAR number, the industry backdrop remains a critical frame: volumes stabilizing, margins shifting, cost pressures mounting. The whitepaper discusses how cyclical risk, local market dynamics, OEM relations, and facility investment requirements are increasingly part of the value conversation.

Why This Is a Must-Read If You Own or Advise a Dealership

  • You’ll be better prepared for marketplace conversations. Whether you’re evaluating a buyer’s offer, thinking of selling, or simply want to know “what my store might be worth,” the whitepaper arms you with the right questions and frameworks.
  • You’ll understand where value is hiding (or leaking). Many owners focus heavily on vehicle volume or gross profit per unit — but often ignore how fixed cost escalation, under-market rent, short facility life, and other factors can erode value.
  • You’ll see how timing ties to value. In an industry with inherent cyclicality, applying peak-year results without adjustment can mislead. We show how to view your store’s performance through the lens of sustainable earnings, not just last year’s results.
  • You’ll get clarity around the “black box” of goodwill/Blue Sky. These intangible elements often create the widest gulf between buyer expectations and seller hopes. The whitepaper demystifies what drives those multiples and how they tie back to real earnings drivers.

What to Do While We Wait for the SAAR Data

  • Download and read the whitepaper to refresh or build your dealership’s valuation framework.
  • Use the time to review your recent financials with an eye toward normalization items (owner pay, related-party rent, non-recurring items).
  • Benchmark your store: are you ahead of, aligned with, or behind typical value-drivers in your market?
  • Think about next-stage value moves: facility upgrades, franchise expansion, improving after-sales penetration, cost discipline.

Final Thought

The auto retail market continues to evolve. Volumes may stabilize, margins may compress, cost pressures may rise—but the core value levers remain the same. By understanding how a buyer or advisor looks at your dealership’s earnings, assets, and goodwill, you put yourself in a position of strength.

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WHITEPAPER

Understand the Value of Your Auto Dealership

Download Whitepaper