The March 2025 SAAR came in at 17.8 million units, up a staggering 11.0% from last month and 13.3% from March 2024. March 2025 saw the highest SAAR since April 2021, reflecting not only the recent trend of strong consumer demand but also the additional demand generated by consumers motivated to purchase a vehicle to avoid potential tariff-related price increases. Mercer Capital expects the April 2025 SAAR to come much lower as we believe demand was pulled forward into March. Based on the reaction from equity markets, the magnitude of the tariffs has caught the global economy by surprise. Over the next several months, the industry will shift and react to the tariffs, with uncertainty surrounding electric vehicle tax policy on the back burner.

The February 2025 SAAR came in at 16.0 million units, up 3.2% from last month and 2.1% from February 2024. While February typically records one of the lowest sales volumes each year, this month’s SAAR exceeded the average of the last five Februarys (approximately 15.3 million units). February 2025 performance reflected strength in consumer demand, primarily driven by improved inventory and incentive spending. Mercer Capital expects the March 2025 SAAR to come in around 16.0 million as consumers continue to be drawn in by a wider array of available inventory. Even after strong February sales, the industry will continue to face uncertainties surrounding import tariffs and electric vehicle tax policy over the next several months.

The January 2025 SAAR came in at 15.6 million units, down 7.5% from last month and up 3.8% from January 2024. January is typically one of the lowest months of sales volume each year, but as seasonal adjustments usually account for this, it is notable that this month’s SAAR dipped to the lowest point since January 2024. It is also worth mentioning that this month’s SAAR exceeded the average of the last five Januarys (approximately 15.4 million units). We expect the February 2025 SAAR to end up around 16.0 million as consumers continue to be drawn in by a wider array of available (and more affordable) inventory.

The December 2024 SAAR came in at 16.8 million units, just slightly higher than last month and up 4.2% from December 2023. Notably, this month’s SAAR outpaced the last three Decembers and was the highest monthly SAAR since May 2021 (17.0 million units). As we look to January 2025, we expect the SAAR to come in around 16.5 million, primarily driven by the greater breadth of inventory available and increased affordability.

The November 2024 SAAR came in at 16.5 million units, which is 1.5% higher than last month and 6.2% higher than November 2023. Of note, November 2024 had one more selling day than November 2023. According to J.D. Power, the year-over-year increase in total new-vehicle sales for November 2024 was forecast near the end of the month at 6.7% after being adjusted for the additional selling day, compared to an approximately 11.0% increase without adjusting for the additional selling day. Mercer Capital expects the December 2024 SAAR to come in around 16.5 million and the average transaction price to continue to moderate as vehicle purchasing will likely increase throughout the holidays and into the new year.

The October 2024 SAAR came in at 16.0 million units, 1.7% higher than last month and 3.7% higher than October 2023. A strong October 2024 SAAR was accompanied by increased inventories and incentive spending levels industry wide, which put pressure on transaction prices and dealership profits. In the last two months of 2024, we expect the average transaction price to continue to moderate and to see an increase in vehicle purchasing throughout the holidays and into the new year as consumers react to recent rate cuts.

The September 2024 SAAR came in at 15.8 million units, 3.3% higher than last month and in line with September 2023. At their September meeting, the Federal Reserve cut benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points and highlighted a slight rise in unemployment. This won’t directly or dramatically impact the industry, but we do expect to see the effects of this rate cut (and likely forthcoming cuts) within the industry over the next couple of months and into 2025.

The August 2024 SAAR recorded 15.1 million units, marking a 4.5% decline from the previous month. This figure is even below June’s SAAR, which was adversely affected by the CDK cybersecurity attack. It appears that consumers may now be feeling the effects of a softening labor market. Job openings have decreased, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since October 2021. These economic indicators point to a moderating labor market, which could also be impacting auto sales. Given these conditions, it seems highly likely that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at their next meeting.

The July 2024 SAAR came in at 15.8 million units, a 4.2% increase from last month and roughly flat with July 2023 (-0.8%). While the month-over-month increase was expected based on the CDK cyber-attack that hit the auto dealer industry in late June, we find it notable that results were still below last year. Mercer Capital expects the August 2024 SAAR to land within the 15.5 to 16 million range as a portion of the Labor Day holiday weekend falls in August this year. Throughout the remainder of 2024, we expect to see pressure on the average transaction price and per-unit dealer profit as expanding inventory levels drive incentive spending higher.

The June 2024 SAAR came in at 15.3 million, a 4.0% drop from last month and a 4.8% drop from June 2023. According to Wards Intelligence, the CDK cyberattack caused a 50,000-unit deficit during June 2024; however, second-quarter sales were still relatively flat (-0.4%) from the second quarter of 2023 as only 11 of 91 days were impacted in the quarter. We believe it is reasonable to expect many of the lost sales from June 2024 will be pushed into July 2024, especially with the long 4th of July weekend coinciding with when many dealers came back online; the outage stretching into this long weekend may have had significantly greater impacts. As we move into the second half of 2024, we expect to see pressure on average transaction price and per-unit dealer profit as expanding inventory levels drive incentive spending higher.

The May 2024 SAAR was just shy of the 16 million mark, coming in at 15.9 million units, generally flat from last month (+0.8%) and reflecting year-over-year growth of 2.5%. Throughout the pandemic years, the auto industry was defined by volatility and uncertainty as inventory levels plummeted and transaction prices skyrocketed. In the first half of 2024, however, we have seen more stability in the SAAR as inventory levels rise and transaction prices moderate. As we move into the second half of 2024, we expect to see pressure on average transaction price and per-unit dealer profit as expanding inventory levels drive incentive spending higher.