In each “Meet the Team” segment, we highlight a different professional on our Auto Dealer Industry team. This week we highlight Harrison Holt, Financial Analyst. We hope you enjoy getting to know us a bit better.
In each “Meet the Team” segment, we highlight a different professional on our Auto Dealer Industry team. This week we highlight Harrison Holt, Financial Analyst. We hope you enjoy getting to know us a bit better.
The October 2022 SAAR was 14.9 million units, up 12.7% from October 2021 and up 9.8% from last month. This month’s SAAR comes as a bit of a surprise, as the last three months’ sales pace settled at around 13.4 million units and seemed to have stabilized at a short-term equilibrium. However, meaningful improvements in inventory balances and other tailwinds like natural disaster-related demand contributed to the second-highest monthly SAAR total this year. For perspective, from 2014-2019, there were zero months where SAAR was below this recent high in the inventory-constrained 2022.
A few weeks ago, I sat down with Kevin Nill of Haig Partners to discuss the current state of the M&A market and other timely trends in the auto dealer industry. Specifically, we discussed some of the movements in Blue Sky multiples for various franchises and interpret the range of multiples that Haig Partners recently published with the release of their Second Quarter 2022 Haig Report.
We are pleased to release our latest edition of Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry Newsletter. The newsletter features a commentary on industry data from mid-year 2022. Additionally, this issue includes two timely articles: “2022: How Is the Auto Industry Doing and What Does the Future Hold?” and “Earnings Calls: Executive Summary.”
NADA estimates that auto dealerships could face up-front costs of up to $294,000 per rooftop to comply with the FTC’s Safeguards Rule. If you are not familiar with the Safeguards Rule, this post discusses it and the amendments that must be complied with by early December 2022.
The September SAAR was 13.5 million units, up 2.3% from last month and up 9.6% from September 2021 when the industry had less than one million vehicles available for sale. While this month’s SAAR highlights a year-over-year improvement and gives us context around how low inventory managed to fall in 2021, this month’s data release does not indicate a “return to normal” by any means.
In this week’s blog, we continue our review of the book The Future of Automotive Retail by Steve Greenfield. It covers the changing trends of consumer behavior and technology that will likely continue to shape the automotive retailing experience for decades to come. In part one of the series, we discussed the “convenience economy,” including predictions of changes to power sources and vehicle production.
In Part two of this series we discuss vehicle ownership, autonomous vehicles, connected cars, service and repairs, and the proposed future of the auto dealership.
Over the next two blogs, we will review the book The Future of Automotive Retail by Steve Greenfield. This book discusses changes in trends of consumer behavior and technology that will likely continue to shape the auto dealer retailing experience for decades to come. In part one of this Blog series, we review the discussions and predictions caused by the “convenience economy,” including changes to power sources and vehicle production.
Interest rates are up, gas prices are volatile, inflation is rampant and vehicle affordability, GDP, and the stock market are down. How have auto dealers belied all of these negative headwinds to produce strong earnings? The simple answer is that dealers have been able to pass on price increases to consumers and have benefitted from more lean cost structures in the wake of the pandemic when they had to cut all costs possible to the bone. In this week’s blog, we consider these trends and analyze Blue Sky values and multiples over the past few years thanks to info provided by Haig Partners.
The August SAAR was 13.2 million units, down 1.1% from last month but up 0.7% from August 2021. This month’s data release, marks the third month in a row that the SAAR has been in the low 13 million-unit range, with the metric seemingly having stabilized in the short term. To illustrate this trend, over the last four months the average SAAR has been 13.1 million units.
Now that the August data has been released, we have much more visibility to what the full year SAAR might look like.
In this post, we focus on the impact of Uber and Lyft on the auto industry as a whole, particularly as compared to initial concerns. We address the questions: “How has the rise of rideshare giants affected the auto industry?”, “How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect ridesharing?” and “What can we expect from the rideshare industry going forward?”
Auto dealers have experienced heightened profitability over the last two years. For dealers with excess cash from continued profits or remaining PPP funds, have you thought about the powersports industry? As one auto dealer client recently recounted to us, “if you have the skills and experience in selling high volumes of automobiles to consumers, then you have the necessary skills to also succeed in the powersports industry.” In this post, we explain what the powersports industry is and how big it is, as well as highlight similarities and differences to the traditional auto dealer industry for those interested in possibly entering this industry.
Supply issues continue to dominate the industry with no end in sight. This week we discuss supply issues along with three other themes that were discussed during the Q2 earnings calls.
The July 2022 SAAR was 13.3 million units, an improvement from last month’s 13.0 million units but down 10.2% from July 2021’s rate of 14.7 million units. The SAAR continues to reflect depressed sales rates as supply chain shortages restrict volumes across the United States. This week we briefly discuss the July 2022 SAAR but focus primarily on the passing of the CHIPS-Plus bill and how it might affect auto dealers.
The first half of 2022 is behind us, and with school about to start, report cards will be here before we know it. In that same light, the auto industry has published its statistics for the first six months. This post reviews predictions by industry analysts (and us) made at the beginning of the year by analyzing several key metrics. Additionally, we discuss threats that arose during the first half of 2022 and their impact on the auto industry for the remainder of the year and perhaps longer. Finally, we offer a few predictions for the second half of 2022.
Lately, Carvana has been in the news for all the wrong reasons. Its share price is down over 90% since its pandemic peak and currently sits below the low levels of March 2020. This post provides an abbreviated history of Carvana from its founding in 2012 to 2022 and discusses what its successes and struggles mean for traditional auto dealerships.
In each “Meet the Team” segment, we highlight a different professional on our Auto Dealer Industry team. This week we highlight David Harkins, Senior Financial Analyst. We hope you enjoy getting to know us a bit better.
The June SAAR was 13 million units, up 2.3% from last month but down 16% compared to June 2021. This month’s release closes out the second quarter of the year, bringing the total Q2 2022 SAAR to 13.4 million units.
Last week we attended the Annual Tri-State Convention for the Automotive Associations of Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. The event provided a great opportunity to discuss trends in the automotive industry with industry participants and dealers from different manufacturers and geographic areas. In this blog, we discuss some of the trends discussed last week, including a variety of topics that we have covered before in this space. We also incorporate highlights of a presentation from noted industry analyst Glenn Mercer (no affiliation with Mercer Capital) regarding the “Dealership of Tomorrow.”
Auto dealers across the country rely on their Finance and Insurance (F&I) departments for a significant portion of their revenue. While top-line revenue in these departments typically makes up a small portion of a new car dealership’s total revenue mix, they have much better margins than their selling division counterparts. Third-party lenders play a larger role in the financing process for used dealers who do not have their own captive finance operations, and the economics are typically different from their new vehicle-selling counterparts.
We look at the layout and current state of the auto finance industry, as well as quotes from public auto executives about the current financing environment in this blog post.
Scott Womack recently sat down with Tony Karabon of DCG Acquisitions to discuss trends in the auto dealer industry such as transaction volume and multiples along with the implications of an agency model for OEMs. DCG Acquisitions is a national, full-service mergers and acquisitions firm representing buyers and sellers of automobile dealerships.
The May 2022 SAAR was 12.7 million units, down 12.6% from last month and 24.9 % from May 2021. The SAAR for this month fell short of expectations, and the drop in May’s sales pace makes it more likely that the second quarter of 2022 will not improve on the first quarter’s average SAAR of 14.1 million units. The SAAR for May was low due to low inventory across the country.
In this week’s blog post, we compare the stock prices of Ford, Stellantis, and GM to the timing of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 in an attempt to answer the question “have higher interest rates hurt auto manufacturer stock prices?”
It’s earnings call season again. Themes from the Q1 2022 earnings calls were affordability issues, managing stores as a portfolio, the health of the franchise dealer model, and who repairs electric vehicle components and what that means for dealerships. All this against a backdrop of the continued inventory shortage makes for an interesting post. Read more here.
Connected cars are an undiscussed subplot in the current inventory crunch as more tech-enabled vehicles require more microchips, which as everyone knows by now are in short supply. In this post, we examine the size and growth of the connected car segment and discuss the struggle between auto manufacturers/OEMs and auto dealers over servicing these features.
