On September 11, 2025, Hart Energy hosted its 2025 A&D Strategies and Opportunities Conference in Dallas, Texas, bringing together many oil and gas industry participants and featuring several speakers and panel discussions.

Two key themes emerged:

1. The maturation of Tier 1 U.S. shale inventory, and
2. The dynamics of private versus public consolidation and deal strategy

Maturing Tier 1 Inventory

Mark Viviano, Managing Partner at Kimmeridge Energy, focused on the idea that top-tier U.S. shale assets are maturing, leading to a shortage of premium inventory, as outlined in Kimmeridge Energy’s latest whitepaper, “What Remains: North American Upstream Inventory.”

Among other points, Viviano emphasized that U.S. recycling ratios have plateaued, making the challenge one of marginal cost rather than resource availability.  There are fewer options for sub-$50 breakeven inventory, now largely confined to parts of the Permian, leading to rising premiums paid for top-tier inventory as PDP discount rates have contracted.

More broadly, however, transaction activity was low in the second quarter. J.P. Hanson, global head of oil and gas at Houlihan Lokey, noted that private investors are sitting on significant dry powder and eager to put it to work. However, companies with strong balance sheets remain patient, holding out for higher valuations from better pricing — creating a disconnect between buyers and sellers.

Private vs. Public Capital Dynamics

The conference underscored a growing divergence between private and public participants in the M&A market.

One panelist noted how private equity funds and private E&Ps are acting decisively, moving quickly on high-quality assets, and deploying capital with conviction.

In contrast, public companies often face boardroom uncertainty, investor pressure, and ambiguity in their strategy, making them more cautious sellers.

This difference helps explain the uneven pace of transactions: deals are concentrated in areas where private buyers are active, while some assets owned by public companies may remain on the market for longer.

The selective behavior of private buyers also reinforces the competitive pressure for top-tier inventory, contributing to rising premiums for undeveloped acreage.

Conclusion

The 2025 Hart Energy A&D Conference highlighted the evolving dynamics of the U.S. upstream oil and gas market.  With Tier 1 shale assets maturing, private and public participants are behaving differently, and deal strategies have become more selective.

Mercer Capital has assisted many clients with various valuation needs in the upstream oil and gas sector, both conventional and unconventional plays in North America and globally.  Contact a Mercer Capital professional to discuss your needs in confidence