Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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September 12, 2016

Long Term Value Drivers in the Eagle Ford

Get Your DUCs in a Row

The Eagle Ford Shale is one of the largest economic developments in the state of Texas. Almost $30 billion was spent developing the play in 2013. However, that figure dropped off dramatically in 2015 and 2016. In the wake of that drop-off some of the key residuals of that investment remain and are still on the precipice of becoming more active. These residual investments exist in the form of drilled, but uncompleted horizontal wells – sometimes known as “DUCs” or “Fracklog”.

Economically, these DUCs function as a form of storage for companies who do not want to complete and produce these wells at current pricing. Thus, they sit idle – waiting to be completed and graduate to a full-fledged producing PDP well.  This is a phenomenon that exists in all the major shale plays in the U.S. and second only to the Bakken, the Eagle Ford has the largest inventory of DUCs (460) in the U.S.

chart_big-four-ducs Many of the big shale producers are jumping on board the fracklog bandwagon. The largest U.S. shale producer to fracklog is EOG Resources (EOG). It started 2015 with 200 DUCs and announced it would “intentionally delay” about 85 more wells this year (these are overall figures, not Eagle Ford specific). Anadarko Petroleum (APC) said it expects to have about 440 uncompleted wells by the year’s end. As a point of comparison, last week there were only a total of 44 rigs in the Eagle Ford, as compared to 205 at year-end 2014. As it pertains to the Eagle Ford specifically, Chesapeake leads the way with 86 DUCs with several other major Eagle Ford players with significant counts as well. Producers have hoped this would bring value to their shareholders, by delaying capital expenditures and functioning as storage for future reserves. These companies can then wait for more favorable oil and gas prices that justify the capital investment to complete the wells. This brings a favorable ROI to the costs, which is the core metric that management teams are tracking. How much value that this creates (or preserves depending on point of view) is linked to how much capital it requires to complete the well as compared to production and price (production x price = revenue). The Eagle Ford shale has pockets of some of the best possible wells for this ROI potential. Bloomberg Intelligence has estimated that breakeven prices for oil in the Eagle Ford can be as low as $27 per barrel. This helps explain why DUCs in the Eagle ford actually decreased in 2015 while other plays had a marked increase; several groups of wells in the Eagle Ford still had positive ROI’s and were economical to be drilled. However, there is a flip side to simply waiting until oil prices go up. Some estimates claim it will take only one to three months to get production from these now-uncompleted wells.  Bloomberg Intelligence has projected the output from these wells to be as high as three million barrels per day. This onslaught of new oil could serve to cap any rally in the oil prices.
“The destruction of production potential that we've needed to see to complete the bust cycle in oil and completely rebalance markets, allowing for a long-term constructive rise in the prices of oil and natural gas, have yet to be seen.” – Daniel Dicker, Real Money

If Eagle Ford producers wish to capitalize on these undrilled wells, timing, resources and capital must be ready to go when the time becomes right.

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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