Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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November 21, 2016

The Permian Basin: Loaves and Fishes

One of the most commonly taught Bible stories is the miracle of Jesus feeding five thousand people with only five loaves of bread and two fish.  Last week we learned of a new miracle story of never ending sustenance.  The Permian Basin, which has been drilled since the 1920s and produced billions of barrels of oil, was discovered to hold the largest unconventional crude accumulation in the US.

Less than 10 years ago, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the Permian Basin held just 1.0 billion barrels of conventional oil and 1.3 billion barrels of unconventional oil classified as technically recoverable reserves.1 The advancement of horizontal drilling techniques, however, increased the amount of recoverable reserves.  Now, according to the Texas Rail Road commission, over 29 billion barrels of oil and 75 trillion cubic feet of gas have been produced from the Permian over the last 90 years.  Further, last Tuesday, the USGS announced an estimated 20 billion barrels of crude oil, 1.6 billion barrels of NGLs, and 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas were discovered in four layers of shale in the Wolfcamp formation.  This discovery alone is 3x larger than the entire Bakken play in North Dakota, and equates an estimated $900 billion of oil.

permian_basin-4 The Wolfcamp Shale has been a recent target of E&P companies in the face of two years of low oil prices.  The Wolfcamp is an oil and gas zone located below the Spraberry oil play in the Midland Basin.  The Spraberry oil play has been developed since 1943 but the Wolfcamp was not developed until the onset of horizontal drilling.  Companies saw opportunity in the Wolfcamp shale because of its depth and geological makeup.  The Permian Basin is a stacked play which means that multiple horizontal wells can be drilled from one main wellbore.  This provides increased productivity as multilateral wells have greater drainage areas than single wellbore.  Additionally, it can reduce overall drilling risk and cost.  For deep reservoirs like the Permian, a multilateral well eliminates the cost of drilling the total depth twice.  The Wolfcamp is as much as a mile deep at some points which means that operators can drill multiple horizontal wells from one main wellbore. M&A activity in the E&P sector has picked up this year due to the opportunity seen in the Permian. There have been 132 deals in the Permian this year so far, totaling $20.8 billion in deal value, which is more than 40% of total E&P deal value generated throughout the US.  Much of this activity has been focused in the Midland Basin. Because drilling costs in the Permian are lower than many other plays in the US, when oil prices began to show signs of recovery, rig counts in the Permian picked up faster than in any other domestic play.  Producers were eager to begin operating after two years of an uneconomical drilling environment, and for many producers the Permian was the first play in which the cost of oil rose above breakeven costs. The chart below shows the combined rig counts of oil and gas rigs in various domestic plays. rig

What Does This Mean?

Business Insider associates some of the collapse of oil prices in 2014 to be driven by the increase in production in the Permian.  The oversupply of oil pushed prices down worldwide.  Just as oil prices have started recovering, this new discovery makes producers seriously consider if $50 per barrel oil is a thing of the past.  Walter Guidroz, program coordinator for the USGS Energy Resources Program said, “The fact that this is the largest assessment of continuous oil we have ever done just goes to show that, even in areas that have produced billions of barrels of oil, there is still the potential to find billions more.”

From a valuation perspective, acreage values in the Permian are likely to continue increasing as more producers try to get their hands on valuable Permian acreage and available land becomes scarcer.  However, there is one problem with talking about technically recoverable resources: cost is not considered.  Many headlines recently boasted that the discovery in the Wolfcamp is worth $900 billion in revenue at today’s prices… but what about cost?  When using the income approach to value oil and gas assets, earnings estimates, not revenue, are capitalized. Art Berman, a petroleum geologist, described this best: “if the oil magically leaped out of the ground without the cost of drilling and completing wells; if there were no operating costs to produce it; if there were no taxes and no royalties” then the Wolfcamp discovery would be worth $900 billion.

This is not to say that the Wolfcamp discovery is inconsequential, but to simply highlight the affect the pricing environment has on oil and gas valuations.  The oil and gas industry is constantly changing.  Each location in the Permian is different and costs vary by region. As a result, the valuation implications of reserves and acreage rights can swing dramatically in resource plays. Utilizing an experienced oil and gas reserve appraiser can help to understand how location impacts valuation issues in this current environment. Contact Mercer Capital to discuss your needs and learn more about how we can help you succeed.


End Note

The USGS defines recoverable resources as those that can be produced using currently available technology and industry practices. Whether or not it is profitable to produce these resources has not been evaluated.

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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