Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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August 15, 2016

Will Marcellus E&P Companies Make a Comeback?

The Rio Olympics are underway, but the Road to Rio was more than a little rocky. Reports of disease, pollution, and protests left us wondering if they could pull it off. But a dazzling Opening Ceremony made us wonder, are the Rio Olympics the next comeback story?

For the last two years we have been asking when will oil prices recover? But natural gas E&P companies have been asking this question for almost seven years. Analysts have worked to predict which companies will make a comeback once prices recover, but the road to recovery has been and will continue to be long and rocky.

Natural gas consumption has steadily increased since prices fell in 2009, but consumption of natural gas has been unable to keep up with the increased production that resulted from the shale gas revolution. Over the last ten years, natural gas production increased by a compound annual growth rate of 4% while consumption growth lagged at less than 3% per year.

Since 2012, the Marcellus and Utica provided 85% of the U.S.’ shale gas production growth as hydraulic fracturing techniques improved. But this fast growth led to excess supply. The American Oil and Gas Reporter commented, “Production in the Northeast is particularly abundant, with volumes increasing from 2 Bcf/d in 2008 to more than 18 Bcf/d in 2014. That astronomical growth rate is expected to continue, reaching 30 Bcf/d by 2020.” By November of 2015, the northeast was already producing 20.3 Bcf/d.

E&P companies have increasingly used debt to finance capital expenditures in order to drive sales volume and maintain revenue in a falling price environment. While heavy debt financing allows companies to maintain revenue, it also threatens their liquidity when prices stay low. A prime example is the case of Rex Energy.

chart_rex-price-160806 Until recently Rex Energy was picked by many analysts as one of the E&P companies expected to make a large rebound. Analysts calculated the implied upside potential as 146% and thirteen analysts gave Rex a buy rating. Rex’s stock price declined at the end of 2008 during the finanical crisis when natural gas prices fell. But, Rex quickly recovered by investing in the Marcellus right before the peak of the shale gas revolution. Rex maintained a debt to equity ratio of less than 80% until mid-2013 when their stock price started to fall again. Since then, Rex’s debt to equity ratio has steadily risen, exceeding 1,320% by the end of the second quarter of 2016. Shares of Rex have been trading at sub $1 levels since early May of this year, placing the stock in danger of being delisted from the NYSE. In an effort to improve short term liquidity, Rex announced two weeks ago that they would exchange debt for common shares. The deal will take some of the immediate pressure off of the company by reducing interest expense by approximately $11.1 million, but the long term solvency of the company is still in doubt barring a significant price rebound. For almost two years analysts have waited for a comeback of Rex Energy, but Shale Experts now predicts that Rex is on the verge of bankruptcy. Rex Energy exemplifies why “cheap, abundant, and profitable” can’t last in the marketplace. As Art Berman explained, shale gas enthusiasts believe that shale is “cheap, abundant, and profitable thus defying all rules of business and economics. That is magical thinking.” Valuation multiples for E&P companies operating in the Marcellus fell over the last six years as natural gas prices declined and production increased.1 There have only been five reported transactions in the Marcellus this year compared with 28 in the Permian. chart_ev-production-marcellus-utica-2q16 While no one can pinpoint when the price of oil and gas will recover, analyzing supply and demand indicators can be helpful for predicting future price movements. The supply of natural gas is not expected to ease in the near future, but a recent uptick in natural gas consumption may help ease the downward trend in prices by narrowing the gap between demand and supply.  The EIA reported that in 2015 natural gas consumption increased more than any other source of power generation and that record consumption in July of 2016 led to an increase in net withdrawals from inventories. The chart below, shared by the EIA on August 8th inToday in Energy, demonstrates that demand is starting to catch up with production. chart_natural-gas-supply-demand Rex Energy may not be making the comeback that analysts once forecasted, but that does not mean hope is lost for all E&P companies in the Marcellus.  The current low price environment may squeeze out some of the highly levered companies, but less aggressively financed companies, such as Antero, have an opportunity to buy inexpensive acreage and expand operations in anticipation of a more favorable pricing environment in the future.  A comeback may still be possible for the companies that can last until the price rebounds. Have value questions in the oil and gas space, as an executive, investor, owner, creditor or other interested party? Utilizing an experienced oil and gas reserve appraiser can help in understanding valuation issues in this current environment. Contact Mercer Capital to discuss your needs and learn more about how we can help you succeed.

End Note

1 EV/ Production multiples are based on the multiples of companies who primarily operate in the Marcellus and Utica Shale.   For more information see Mercer Capital’s E&P Index by Mineral Reserve.

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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