Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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May 15, 2017

E&P: What We Learned from 1st Quarter Earnings

Current Spot Price 20170515 The first quarter of 2017 was productive and active for upstream E&P but the change in market capitalizations of many oil and gas companies does not match the reported increase in earnings and production estimates. Looking at our universe of energy companies in the E&P space, over 70% beat earnings estimates. This statistic held true no matter if the energy company was a global integrated operator or a pure upstream producer. To provide a flavor of the attitude, we selected two larger publicly traded energy companies involved in E&P (STO and XOM) as well as six companies with primary operations in the Permian Basin (PXD, CXO, NBL, XEC, FANG, and RSPP) and reviewed the highlights of their latest earnings releases. As summarized below, each of these companies exceeded analyst expectations. OG-Prices-4Q16-1Q17

STO – StatOil ASA

StatOil_17Q1 Over the first quarter StatOil’s market cap fell from $60.2 billion to $55.7 billion.  But, Eldar Saetre, President and CEO of Statoil ASA had only good things to say about first quarter earnings.
  • Our solid financial result and strong cash flow across all segments was driven by higher prices, good operational performance and an organic production growth of 5%.
  • We delivered seven discoveries from nine exploration wells drilled during first quarter. Many of these can be quickly put into profitable production.
  • We are also about to start our exploration programme in the Barents Sea, testing several new opportunities over the next six months. In the quarter, we received approval for three plans for development and submitted additional two projects for approval by Norwegian authorities, showing commitment to industrial development on the NCS.

XOM – Exxon Mobil Corporation

XOM_2017 Exxon’s market cap fell over the first quarter from $373 to $340 billion but overall the company reported positive results.   Darren W. Woods, Chairman and CEO, said,
  • Our results reflect an increase in commodity prices and highlight our continued focus on controlling costs and operating efficiently.
  • We continue to make strategic acquisitions, advance key initiatives and fund long-term growth projects across the value chain.
  • Upstream volumes were 4.2 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, a decline of 4 percent compared with the prior year, primarily due to the impact of lower entitlements due to increasing prices, and higher maintenance.
  • Upstream earnings of $2.3 billion improved on higher liquids and gas realizations.
The following six companies’ operations are focused in the Permian Basin.  The bulleted information below is summarized from each of their earnings releases.

PXD – Pioneer Natural Resource Company

PXD_2017 Pioneer’s market cap remained relatively stable over the first quarter of 2017 at $31.3 billion in January and $31.6 billion at quarter end.
  • Production for the first quarter increased by 3% from 4Q16 and was above the top end of Pioneer’s guidance range
  • Production growth was driven by Spraberry/ Wolfcamp horizontal drilling program
  • The company reduced production costs compared to 4Q16.

CXO – Concho Resources, Inc.

CXO_2017 Over the first quarter Concho’s market cap fell somewhat from $19.6 billion to $18.6 billion but overall, the company reported positive earnings and activity results.
  • Concho delivered quarterly production of 181.4 Mboepd, exceeding the high end of the company’s guidance range and raised full-year 2017 production outlook to a range of 21% – 25% annual growth while maintaining their capital expenditures outlook.
  • They increased crude oil production to 113.6 Mbpd, up 28% year-over-year.
  • The company achieved record well performance in their Delaware Basin and New Mexico Shelf assets.
  • The shift to manufacturing mode was made with large-scale development projects in the Delaware Basin and in the Midland Basin.
  • The company reduced per-unit production expense and interest expense by 27% and 42%, respectively, year-over-year.
  • Concho lowered full-year 2017 guidance for per-unit production and depreciation, depletion and amortization expenses.

NBL - Noble Energy, Inc.

NBL_2017 Nobel Energy’s market cap fell from $16.4 billion to $14.84 billion over the first quarter of 2017 even as President and CEO David L. Stover said, “Noble Energy is off to a great start in 2017, with strong operational and financial performance and importantly, numerous recent strategic accomplishments.”
  • The company delivered quarterly sales volumes at or exceeding the top end of guidance. And total oil volumes were at the high end of guidance, led by Delaware and DJ Basin performance.
  • The company saw continued strong well performance in the Delaware Basin.
  • Three new Wolfcamp A wells commenced production.
  • Noble Energy's leading position in the Southern Delaware Basin was solidified through the acquisition of Clayton Williams Energy, increasing the company's position to 118,000 net acres.
  • Full year sales volumes trended toward the upper half of original expectations, driven primarily from increased crude oil and NGL sales.

XEC – Cimarex Energy Co.

XEC_2017 Cimarex’s market cap decreased over the first quarter from $13.2 billion to $11.4 billion.
  • Total production was up 11% sequentially.
  • Oil production was up 15% sequentially.
  • Total company production, which increased 9% over the first quarter, came in above the high end of our guidance.
  • Commodity prices improved significantly from a year ago and had a positive impact on Cimarex's financial results for the quarter.
  • Realized oil prices increased 70% from the first quarter of 2016.
  • Realized natural gas prices were up 57% from the first quarter 2016.
  • NGL prices were up 107% from the same period one year ago.

FANG - Diamondback Energy, Inc.

FANG_2017 Over the first quarter Diamondback’s market cap increased from $9.3 billion to $10.1 billion.
  • 1Q17 production was up 19% over 4Q16 with 13% quarterly organic growth.
  • Estimated 1Q17 Midland Basin drill, complete and equip cost per completed lateral foot was down 5% quarter-over-quarter.
  • Closed Brigham Resources acquisition, which increased Diamondback's total leasehold to approximately 189,000 net surface acres in the Permian Basin.
  • Diamondback continues to decrease drilling times, lower costs, and achieve new company records.

RSPP - RSP Permian, Inc.

RSPP_2017 RSP’s market cap decreased from $6.5 billion to $5.9 billion over the first quarter of 2017.
  • Production increased 84% compared to 1Q16 and increased 26% compared to 4Q16.
  • Adjusted EBITDAX increased by 249% from 1Q16 and 37% compared to 4Q16.
  • On March 1, 2017, RSP Permian closed their previously announced SHEP II acquisition for approximately $646 million of cash and 16.0 million shares of RSP common stock.
As the above earnings excerpts explain, the first quarter brought (1) higher oil and gas prices; (2) higher production rates; (3) lower production costs; (4) investment in new wells; and (5) an active environment for asset purchase and divestures. However, the stock price performance does not reflect the positive quarter performance. Of the 64 energy companies we track, 49 had lower market capitalizations as of May 11, 2017 compared to December 31, 2016.

Why Is This?

One significant reason for this mismatch is the outlook for crude oil has declined approximately 14% from the end of Q4 to the middle of May 2017. The following is a comparison of the 12 months futures contracts for WTI at the end of 4Q16 and middle of May 2017:

WTI Future Contracts 17Q1 The fear of too much oil supply is dampening the pricing outlook for oil. Although 1Q17 resulted in slightly higher prices for oil, the successful increase in production from new drilling techniques and stacked reserve play wells is boosting production and moving prices lower. The industry now looks to OPEC and Russia for production cuts to assist in increasing the price. In a volatile oil and gas market, the market capitalization of companies is more of a representation of the future earning potential of companies rather than the past.  While the first quarter of 2017 showed hopeful results, the change in the market pricing of these companies puts a damper on the increase in earnings and makes us question if these companies’ successes are short lived. Mercer Capital has significant experience valuing assets and companies in the energy industry, primarily oil and gas, bio fuels and other minerals.  We have assisted many clients with various valuation and cash flow issues regarding royalty interests.  Contact Mercer Capital to discuss your needs in confidence and learn more about how we can help you succeed.

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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