Oil & Gas
shutterstock_2364977019.jpg

August 28, 2017

Summer NAPE Expo: Observations & Thoughts

Mercer Capital attended the Summer NAPE Expo in Houston this month.  Founded in 1993 by AAPL, with the addition of IPAA, SEG, and AAPG as partners over the next several years, NAPE is a well-known venue for oil and gas professionals to meet, network, and do business; it was a terrific event.  The Expo also included a conference covering various industry issues.  The session speakers were mostly a mix of company executives and industry analysts, including Wood Mackenzie.  The presentations covered a number of supply and demand issues including:

  • Market efficiencies in light of the low-cost environment
  • Comments on various basins (Permian, Eagle Ford, Haynesville)
  • Continued growth of drilled uncompleted wells (“DUC’s”)

Market Efficiencies

There continues to be a relative market oversupply in both oil and gas.  According to Wood Mackenzie, there may be approximately 1700 TCF of natural gas that could breakeven at $3.00/mcf.  That’s a 20-year supply for the U.S.  LNG is oversupplied because the U.S. is putting a ceiling on LNG prices.  However, there are signs of a move towards more of a balance; for example, we are starting to see some slight inventory drawdowns and the market may find creative ways to create demand for some of these plentiful resources.

 

ngs All of this is being accomplished in light of significant industry capex drops since 2014. However, we are starting to witness growth again in 2017 for spending. This is corresponding with the increase of rig counts. lower48_capex_cuts_region

Basin Commentary

Analysts from Wood Mackenzie noted that the breakeven for new wells in the Permian Basin was at the bottom of the global cost curve.  Some areas of the Permian are at a $35 per barrel breakeven level.  In addition, it was mentioned that the Permian could match the Marcellus shale in natural gas production (to say nothing of oil and liquids) in the future.  This significantly differentiates the Permian Basin in comparison to other plays.

However, the Permian is not the only basin with favorable economics.  Technology and innovation have pushed other areas along.  For example, the Eagle Ford shale play is sustainable at today’s prices and the Haynesville Shale has had a “roller coaster” of activity lately.  Some areas of the Haynesville can model gas as low as $2.40/mcf and still have a profitable well.  BP, Exxon, and Exco all have activity in the Haynesville area.

Continued Growth of DUC’s

DUC’s are growing quickly and the market continues to pay more attention to them.  In fact, the EIA this month included the Anadarko basin for the first time in its DUC data and drilling report.

DUCs Two years ago this metric caught the industry’s attention.  However, there are questions as to exactly how much potential inventory these DUC’s represent.  It was noted that DUC wells may be comprised of lower estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) and may not have as much excess inventory as otherwise thought. In addition, completion crews are taking longer to perform jobs than before (6-7 days as opposed to 4-5).  With drilling times going down and completion times going up, we are seeing a higher DUC count. One other interesting drilling related note from the conference was that an emerging theme (previously rarely, if ever, discussed) on analyst calls for publicly traded companies has to do with the percentage of acreage controlled by companies that is held by production (HBP).  In fact, most of the Permian is 95% HBP – due to decades of prior drilling.  It appears companies want investors to know that there isn’t as much of a requirement for companies to drill going forward.

Takeaways

The marketplace remains excited about the potential for the Permian Basin.  Although there continues to be a supply glut, the U.S. is well positioned to continue to have positive economics due to increasingly efficient operations, technology, and innovation.  More and more basins are beginning to catch up to the Permian in terms of efficiency and rig counts reflect this.

However, our biggest takeaway was meeting and getting to know a plethora of new people.  The conversations were terrific, and we enjoyed getting to know all of you.  We look forward to seeing you at future NAPE events as well.

If you were there, let us know your thoughts and comments about NAPE.  We would love to hear them.  Have a great week!

Continue Reading

Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

Cart

Your cart is empty