Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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March 27, 2018

Eagle Ford Q1 2018

Lower Breakevens Yet Some Plan Fewer Wells

A milestone worth noting:  The EIA recently announced that 2017 marked the first time since 1957 that U.S. natural gas exports exceeded imports. 
The economics of the Eagle Ford Shale have been steadily improving for the past year.  While the Permian has been receiving the most attention given its low-cost economics and large well potential, the Eagle Ford (particularly its oil window) has increased well production whilst dropping its costs.  However, based on recent announcements, many companies will be reducing the number of wells drilled in 2018 as compared to 2017.

Breakeven Prices

As recently as a year ago, several companies and outlets reported breakeven oil price estimates in the low-to-mid $40s.  Recently, several operators in the Eagle Ford are estimating breakeven as low as $28 and many around $35.  This is a significant drop and points to anticipated efficiencies in drilling and completion costs.

This is positive, but the trend is generally moving away from the Eagle Ford relative to other plays.  According to IHS Markit, “only 1,415 new wells were brought online in 2016 compared to 2,717 in 2015 and 4,040 in 2014". IHS also noted "the play’s overall annual base has been decreasing year-over-year as a result of production coming from older wells. The annual base decline in the Eagle Ford in 2016 was 46% compared to 49% and 50% in 2015 and 2014, respectively.” IHS Markit also reported that a key reason for the decline in activity in the Eagle Ford is due to the rising interest in the Permian Basin and STACK/SCOOP plays, which have attracted the interest of key Eagle Ford players, including Pioneer Resources, Devon Energy, and Marathon Oil.

TPG Acquisition

It is notable, and probably not a coincidence, that TPG, the most optimistic company per the Figure above, last week made one of the largest acquisitions in the Eagle Ford in the past few years (we will discuss this acquisition and other recent ones in more detail in a few weeks.  Stay tuned.).

2018 Plans

Tis the season for 2018 guidance and several of the major Eagle Ford shale operators have given theirs.  As mentioned, several companies (Sanchez, Chesapeake, and Carrizo) are decreasing their estimates for new well compared to last year, but are increasing their capex budgets.  Overall,  EOG and Sanchez have increased their rig presence as of last week, but those figures fluctuate even week-to-week.  EOG is leading the way in its activity from well count to acreage.  In terms of new activity planned in 2018, it is the most aggressive of the four companies we follow (see Figure below).  It’s also notable that EOG continues to test its position in the Austin Chalk formation – completing four wells in 4Q2017.

Bill Thomas, the company's chairman and CEO, said last year was a success, considering lingering weakness in crude oil prices and headwinds from the series of hurricanes that hammered southern U.S. shale basins in late 2017."EOG emerged from the industry downturn in 2017 with unprecedented levels of efficiency and productivity, driving oil production volumes to record levels with capital expenditures approximately one half the prior peak," he said in a statement.
Carrizo’s strategy revolves around “multipads” wherever possible in the Eagle Ford.  In 2018, Carrizo is completing a 16-well multipad utilizing three completion crews.  In addition, Carrizo sees more than 700 remaining PUDs in the core of its Eagle Ford position at a 330-500 foot spacing profile (depending on the geology of the project area). Chesapeake, meanwhile, continues to manage its balance sheet with asset sales and tempered activity which makes its activity profile a little harder to discern.

Performance

What does this mean for performance?  Well, the past week has been good to a number of producers, but it comes after a subpar stock price performance for everyone on this list not named EOG.

However, if efficiencies compound for Eagle Ford players, this chart could look very different a year from now.  Time will tell.

Have a great week!

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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