Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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June 18, 2018

Piping Hot Permian

Production in the Permian is as hot as the summers in West Texas.  Despite being discovered in the 1920s, it was not until 2007 that the region’s true potential was realized when hydraulic fracturing techniques were used to access the play's tight sand layers. Given its low-cost economics and large well potential, in recent years, the Permian has been in the limelight with operators and investors alike prioritizing the region.

According to Baker Hughes, there are virtually no active gas-directed rigs, but significant gas production is still occurring in the region because natural gas is coming as a by-product from the oil rigs.  As we discussed in a previous post, this is having a negative effect on natural gas prices and producers outside of the Permian.  Companies in the Permian have an advantage because they do not have to choose between oil and gas, and production is more efficient.  As such, the Permian is the largest producer of oil and the second largest producer of gas, after the Marcellus.

Rig Counts and Production

With many producers clamoring for a piece of the action, the number of rigs in the Permian has consistently grown at a faster rate than total rig counts in the country.  As a result, the Permian has increased its share of total rig counts, as seen in the graph below.  In June 2015, the Permian accounted for 27% of all rigs, but that number steadily increased to 45% as of June 2018.  The number of rigs in the Permian has grown 32% in the past year, compared to 16% nationally; these figures were 156% and 125% for the year before that.

According to the EIA, production of oil and natural gas in the Permian Basin has increased at a compound annual rate of 25.0% and 21.1%, respectively over the last five years.  In the past year alone, oil production increased 35.6% and gas production increased 26.5%, with over 45% of the U.S.’ crude oil and 15% of the country’s natural gas currently coming from the Permian Basin.1  A concerted effort has been made to increase efficiency, which has led to a rise in production per well.  Oil production per rig in the Permian increased more than 36% in the last year, which, when combined with the rise in rig count, further emphasizes the focus on the region.

Economic Impact

With this rush to West Texas, Midland and Odessa are in the middle of the action.  The boom has had a large impact on their economies as a whole.  Population growth from 2016 to 2017 was estimated at 4.2% for Midland and 4.8% for Odessa, compared to 2.0% for Texas and 0.8% for the country.  Unemployment was also extremely low at 2.1% and 2.8%, respectively, compared to 3.8% for the state and 3.7% for the country.  The national unemployment rate is already at its lowest of this millennium, emphasizing how razor-thin the margin is in Midland.  This has caused significant labor shortages in other sectors of the economy as they cannot compete with $28/hour wages offered after minimal training requirements for workers in the oil sector.

Valuation Implications

We can understand the valuation implications for companies in the Permian Basin by looking at 1) royalty trusts and mineral rights aggregators and 2) E&P companies.

Royalty Trusts

Positive market sentiment for the Permian region can be viewed in the performance of both operators in the region and publicly traded royalty trusts with exposure to the Permian.  As seen in the following tables, royalty trusts in the Permian have seen far superior two year returns.  Also of note is the average size measured by market cap.  Viper Energy Partners, Black Stone Minerals, and Kimbell Royalty Partners are all aggregators of mineral interests and are not restricted from acquiring new interests like many other royalty trusts.  This causes them to be larger, and it also allows them to gain exposure to new, advantageous regions, which may play a role in all of them having exposure to the Permian.

Royalty Trusts typically decline in both production and level of reserves. For the trusts with properties outside of the Permian, they have averaged decline rates of 14% for production and 21% for reserves over the past three years.2  However, trusts in the Permian are increasing at average rates of 13% for production and 7% for reserves.  This indicates the increased activity in the region, though again, it should be noted that some of the trusts that are not restricted from acquiring new properties are likely to be categorized in the Permian group as they would have sought exposure to the region.

E&P Companies

As seen in the graph below, E&P companies valuation multiples on average remain highest in the Permian, but they have declined 21% in 2018.  Multiples in the Bakken and Eagle Ford meanwhile have cut into the gap, increasing 34% and 25%, respectively since the beginning of the year.  The Marcellus and Utica continue to see the lowest valuation multiples and have declined by 2% in 2018.  Companies in the Permian are generally more profitable than companies in other regions as explained by their lower break-even prices. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, recent break-even prices in the Permian were $38 in both the Delaware and Midland Basins.3  This represents a 6% decline for the Delaware Basin since June 2017, compared to a 28% decline in break-even price for the Midland Basin.  These break-even prices compare favorably to $40 in the Bakken and about $44 in the Eagle Ford.

Production in the Permian appears to be full steam ahead. And as they say, if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the Permian. We have assisted many clients with various valuation needs in the oil and gas space in the Permian region, other conventional and unconventional plays in North America, and around the world.  Contact Mercer Capital to discuss your needs in confidence and learn more about how we can help you succeed.

End Notes

1 EIA; Calculations based on monthly crude oil and gas production and EIA drilling report by region 2 Capital IQ; Calculations based on production and reserve figures reported in royalty trust 10-K’s 3 Bloomberg Intelligence; County Level Estimate

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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