Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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October 31, 2019

Pipeline Bottlenecks And Worthless Acreage: The Downsides Of World-Leading Oil Production

Oil and gas production in the United States continues to grow. Last year a momentous occasion came and went when the U.S. unseated Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil producer on a daily production basis. The last time that happened was 1973, and a lot has changed since then. There were genuine concerns at the time that conventional oil recovery was at or near a peak. Back then, resources and drilling inventories were widely perceived as limited and thus investors paid a premium for companies that possessed more robust reserve reports while perceived demand for midstream assets waned. This has changed. Some side effects of this current market have included choke points in pipeline capacity and a precipitous drop in prices for undeveloped oil and gas acreage.

While fracking techniques have existed in prior forms since the 1940s, the innovations in fracking technology have allowed companies to stimulate previously uneconomic wells. This revolutionized production and reframed mindset as to whether oil recovery was at a peak or not. In fact, production patterns improved so quickly over the past five years that infrastructure such as pipelines, processing and logistics has had trouble keeping up.

The Bakken and Three Forks formations located in the Dakotas and Montana are a good example of this. For years, there has been a dearth of pipeline access to the formation and most of the oil produced has been transported out of the region by rail, a less efficient solution compared to pipelines. This issue has been even more acute for natural gas transportation. According to the EIA, in 2017 Bakken operators flared 88.5 billion cubic feet of gas, worth about $220 million and enough to heat 1 million homes.

The Dakota Access Pipeline, which was much discussed in the news due to protests, opened in 2017 and is proposed to expand. It helped correct steep pricing differentials as compared to West Texas Intermediate crude pricing. There is still more to come (gas flaring is still prevalent), but constraints should lessen as time goes on.

Another trend has been flagging prices for undeveloped acreage. We researched transaction data in the Bakken over the past two years and according to our research from the fourth quarter 2017 going into the fourth quarter 2019, average prices for acreage in the Bakken dropped from $14,250 per acre to $11,919 per acre. While limited in sample size, what’s particularly interesting about these statistics is that on a flowing barrel basis the average price for production increased ($53,338 per flowing barrel in the period entering the fourth quarter 2018 vs. $55,246 going into the fourth quarter 2019).

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Source: Shale Experts[/caption] This indicates that current production valuations remain steady while acreage values for future production weaken. The explanation for this dynamic is layered yet connected, and it is not isolated to the Bakken area. At Hart Energy’s A&D Strategies and Opportunities Conference, industry participants emphasized a theme of seeking to buy current oil and gas production as opposed to longer term developmental acreage. This is a result of the capital discipline and returns that investors are demanding. Thus, with public markets struggling to show returns to many investors, acquisition and divestiture activity has slowed. The most prominent transaction oriented activity in the Bakken this year was ironically QEP’s decision to terminate a deal to sell its assets for $1.73 billion. Part of this is driven by public funding drying up. Some companies are turning to creative asset backed bonds to facilitate fundraising. This dearth of funding incentivizes investors to be particularly selective in their asset purchases and be more weighted to current returns. Thus, there is less capital available to invest in longer term drilling inventory. The valuation theory is straightforward: there is more sensitivity of the price paid today for drilling inventory that may not be monetized for 10 or 15 years or more from a net present value perspective. It’s not worth much in today’s dollars, and thus becomes challenging to justify the significant capital outlay considering alternative investments. Another factor driving declines in acreage values is large swaths of private equity backed properties that are considering monetizing their assets due to expiring fund holding periods. While perhaps up to $5 billion of non-operated oil and gas packages are potentially available in the Bakken, many aren’t currently transacting because of the low prices and wide bid-ask spreads. This may not last, and funds will eventually have to sell their assets. When that happens, acreage prices could drop even further if commodity prices or other fundamentals do not improve. It may not appear reasonable to some sellers, but it is fair in many buyers’ minds. It’s a somewhat unexpected side effect alongside a global shift in energy markets.
Originally appeared on Forbes.com.

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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