Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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March 27, 2020

Eagle Ford Update

Production and Activity Levels

Eagle Ford production grew approximately 2% year-over-year through March, lagging behind the Permian (18%), Bakken (6%) and Appalachia (5%).  This is driven, in part, by the maturity of the Eagle Ford play relative to other areas, as well as the Eagle Ford’s relatively high proportion of gas production.

The rig count in the Eagle Ford at March 20th stood at 67, down 18% from the prior year.  This decline is more severe than reductions seen in the Bakken and Permian, though better than Appalachia and the overall US rig count.  The Eagle Ford’s rig count has also seen a strong bounce back from November’s lows.  However, rig counts are a lagging indicator, so may fall further in light of recent commodity price declines. The Eagle Ford is also seeing gains in new-well production per rig.  While this metric doesn’t cover the full life cycle of a well, it is a signal of the increasing efficiency of operators in the area.  New-well production per rig in the Eagle Ford increased 8% on a year-over-year basis through March, compared to increases of 15%, 13%, and -18% in the Bakken, Permian, and Appalachia, respectively.

Commodity Prices Fall Amid Coronavirus Outbreak and Russian / Saudi Price War

After hitting recent highs in early January, oil prices generally declined in January and February as the spread of the coronavirus raised investor concerns regarding oil demand due to potential travel restrictions and declining economic activity.  The decline accelerated on March 6, as Saudi and Russia could not come to an agreement regarding production cuts in light of declining demand, sending WTI futures down 10% to $41.28.  The feud escalated over the weekend as Saudi Arabia slashed its official crude oil selling prices and indicated its intent to ramp up production.  WTI futures fell an additional 25% the following Monday, March 9.

Since then, prices continued to decline, with WTI front month futures settlement prices hitting $20.83 on March 18.  Prices have rebounded somewhat from this level but remain extremely volatile.

Financial Performance

All Eagle Ford E&P operators analyzed have had year-over-year stock price declines.  EOG and Magnolia outperformed the broader E&P universe (XOP), though Penn Virginia and Silverbow are both down more than 90%.

Despite this financial performance, no Eagle Ford operators have filed for bankruptcy in the immediate wake of the price downturn.  However, the commodity price environment has impacted the restructuring processes for Eagle Ford operators that entered bankruptcy in 2019.  According to bankruptcy proceedings, Sanchez Energy may not be able to repay its debtor-in-possession (DIP) loan, which would result in no recovery for any legacy creditors.  EP Energy announced in early March that its restructuring plan had been approved by the bankruptcy court.  However, the deal was called off later in the month as lenders for the company’s exit financing pulled their support.

Infrastructure

One of the Eagle Ford’s key advantages is its proximity to Gulf Coast refineries and export infrastructure.  However, that benefit is eroding as demand for refined products is tanking (though storage costs are surging) and some importers are seeking to invoke force majeure clauses to reject LNG shipments.

This also comes at a time when new pipelines are coming into service to carry Permian production to the Gulf Coast.  The EPIC crude pipeline entered service in February, carrying oil volumes from Orla, Texas, to Corpus Christi.  In September 2019, Kinder Morgan’s Gulf Coast Express was placed in service, transporting natural gas from the Permian to Agua Dulce (just southwest of Corpus Christi).  Early next year, Kinder Morgan’s Permian Highway natural gas pipeline is expected to come online, carrying volumes from the Permian’s Waha hub to the Gulf Coast.  While this infrastructure build-out is helping make energy markets more efficient, it is diminishing the Eagle Ford’s previous marketing advantages.

Conclusion

Commodity prices are putting immense strain on E&P companies, and there is little relief in sight.  The Eagle Ford’s maturity means that many of the lowest-cost, highest-return locations have already been drilled.  The basin’s marketing advantages are eroding as new pipeline infrastructure transports surging Permian volumes to the Gulf Coast.  With two Eagle Ford operators already in bankruptcy (Sanchez and EP Energy) and unable to exit, we’ll see if anyone joins them over the next twelve months.

We have assisted many clients with various valuation needs in the upstream oil and gas space in both conventional and unconventional plays in North America, and around the world.  Contact a Mercer Capital professional to discuss your needs in confidence and learn more about how we can help you succeed.

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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