M&A in the Bakken

Mercer Capital joined industry leaders at the 2026 NAPE Summit (NAPE Expo), held February 18th to 20th, at the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston, Texas. As with prior Expos, NAPE delivered a focused marketplace where conversations move quickly from “nice to meet you” to “what would it take to get this done?” This year, Bryce Erickson and David Smith represented Mercer Capital on the expo floor and across the conference programming, meeting with operators, minerals groups, capital providers, and advisors.If there was one defining characteristic of NAPE 2026, it was convergence. The industry’s traditional center of gravity, upstream oil and gas dealmaking, was still very much present. But the surrounding ecosystem is widening, as programming incorporated adjacent (and increasingly intertwined) sectors. The hubs for 2026, included Offshore, Data Centers, and Critical Minerals, as part of an event lineup designed to broaden the deal flow and participant mix. Below are our key takeaways from the conference, with a tour through the hub sessions and the themes that were emphasized.The Hub Sessions Told a Clear Story: Energy Is Becoming a Multi-Asset PortfolioThe 2026 NAPE hubs provided a useful lens into where capital is flowing and how industry priorities are evolving. This year’s programming demonstrated a market that still values traditional upstream opportunities, while increasingly integrating adjacent and emerging sectors into the broader deal landscape.Prospect Preview Hub: Showcasing OpportunitiesNAPE’s Prospect Preview Hub once again served as a platform for exhibitors to showcase available prospects on the expo floor, providing concise overviews of their technical merits and commercial potential. Presenters framed their investment thesis in a narrative that reflects how assets are marketed in a competitive transaction environment.Minerals & NonOp Hub: Strategies and TrendsThe Minerals & NonOp Hub discussions focused on market trends, financing strategies, and technology-driven approaches to sourcing and managing acquisition opportunities. Presentations in this hub addressed strategies, recent trends, technologies, and related developments.Offshore Hub: Long-Cycle Capital with Global ImplicationThe Offshore Hub highlighted exploration frontiers, development innovation, and the broader geopolitical context influencing offshore investment. Particular emphasis was placed on high-potential offshore regions, navigating environmental and regulatory frameworks, supply-demand trends, and the role of offshore energy in the global energy mix. Offshore projects require significant upfront investment and longer development timelines, which heighten sensitivity to regulatory stability, cost control, and commodity price outlook assumptions. In this sense, offshore dealmaking underscores how long-cycle assets must be evaluated differently from shorter-cycle onshore plays.Renewable Energy Hub: An Integrated FrameworkThe Renewable Energy Hub reflected an industry increasingly focused on integration rather than segmentation. Presentations centered on integrating renewables with traditional energy sources, hybrid project models, sustainability pathways with a focus on technology, and strategies for navigating evolving energy markets. Rather than viewing renewables as a standalone vertical, participants frequently discussed how renewable assets fit within broader portfolios that include natural gas, storage, and transmission infrastructure.Critical Minerals Hub: Supply Chain Strategy Comes to the ForefrontThe Critical Minerals Hub emphasized the strategic importance of minerals such as lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, and graphite within evolving energy supply chains. The three sessions - Exploration/Development, Market Dynamics, and Sustainability/Innovation - featured presentations focused on resource development pathways, supply chain positioning, sourcing practices, and recycling technologies. Unlike traditional upstream projects, critical mineral investments often face unique permitting, processing, and geopolitical risks. As capital flows into the space, differentiation increasingly depends on technical credibility and downstream integration potential.Data Center Hub: Power Demand Is Now a First-Order VariableThe Data Center Hub positioned data centers as a critical component of the global economy, emphasizing the sector’s immense and growing energy needs and the resulting opportunities for collaboration between energy and technology stakeholders. Sessions addressed (i) structuring power supply, interconnection, and grid compliance, (ii) managing data center development risk, and (iii) how rising energy demands impact data center development.In practical terms, this emerged in two ways. First, site selection and power availability are increasingly central to “deal conversations.” Co-location strategies, generation capacity, transmission access, and long-term power contracting are becoming key underwriting considerations. Second, infrastructure constraints are entering valuation frameworks. Power availability, interconnection queues, permitting timelines, and fuel optionality are no longer secondary factors; they directly influence project timing, risk, and expected returns.Our Takeaways: What We Heard Repeatedly on the FloorAcross hub sessions and meetings, three themes came up again and again:Infrastructure constraints are turning into valuation drivers. Power, pipelines, processing, and permitting are not background details—they’re often the gating items that shape cash flow timing, risk, and ultimate marketability.The market is hungry for clarity. Whether the topic is policy, commodity outlook, or capital availability, counterparties are placing a premium on deals with understandable risks and executable paths.Energy dealmaking is becoming “multi-asset” by default. Even when the transaction is traditional upstream, the conversation increasingly touches power, infrastructure, data, or minerals adjacency.Final ThoughtsMercer Capital has long valued NAPE as an event where real deal conversations happen and where shifting industry priorities can be identified early on. As the lines between upstream, infrastructure, power, and emerging energy/minerals continue to blur, independent valuation and transaction advisory services become even more important, since the hardest part isn’t building a model, it’s choosing the right assumptions.We have assisted many clients with various valuation needs in the upstream oil and gas space for both conventional and unconventional plays in North America and around the world. Contact a Mercer Capital professional to discuss your needs in confidence and learn more about how we can help you succeed.