Oil & Gas
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October 28, 2022

Takeaways from Two Recent Energy Events in Dallas

Strong Industry Fundamentals, Capital Markets Showing Signs of Resurgence, and Energy Security

In the past week, several energy-related gatherings have been held in the Dallas area. We attended two of them: the D-CEO Energy Awards and Hart Energy’s Energy Capital Conference. We had numerous discussions with company representatives, dealmakers, and service providers.  The marketplace appears excited about the potential for the upcoming year amid challenges. At both events, several industry themes were evident including: the energy industry has strong fundamentals, capital markets are showing signs of a resurgence in needed capital, and energy security is returning to the lexicon.

Strong Fundamentals

Several speakers and panelists at both events expressed optimism and confidence in the important role that the sector is playing both today and in the future. “This will be the golden decade for hydrocarbon production,” said Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital at the D-CEO Energy Awards.  In this inflationary environment, the best place to be in energy, according to Mr. Bass, is royalties because they capture all the cost issues beneath them.

This will be the golden decade for hydrocarbon production

At the Hart Energy Capital Conference, Tim Perry of Credit Suisse said that returns are very strong considering high profits coupled with lower than historical valuations.  Upstream companies that used to trade at 6-8 times EBITDA now trade between 3-5 times. IPOs are coming out at higher discounts to these multiples, and as such, returns expected are higher.  Mr. Perry pointed out that energy occupies only about 5.1% of the S&P market capitalization, whereas historically, it has typically been between 8 - 13%.

Which upstream area (oil vs. gas) was a better place to be right now has been a big boardroom discussion, with oil producers getting higher margins but gas producers facing a bright future with the major energy transition fuel.

Capital Resurgence?

Another theme was the prospect of capital returning to the space.  Considering the deleveraging trend that has been happening for several years now, it was interesting to hear from multiple panelists that capital sources are coming back to the space.  Banks are starting to return and borrowing bases, which were hard to come by, are now becoming more available to upstream producers.  Over the past five years or so, so-called “casual” investors have left the space.  The smaller landscape is now populated with sophisticated investors who are interested in energy’s strong tenets.

Due to the fundamentals, private capital has also been responsive to filling the void with more unconventional sources, such as private placements and even family offices offering debt and equity capital.  The space has become more attractive as what was described on one panel as the 3 “R”s – returns; realization of the industry’s importance; and regulatory framework to allow more investing.

These trends have also begun to creep into the institutional space as well.  It has become less polarizing in the past year, and more people are willing to listen to energy-oriented investment theses.  One panelist remarked that some larger institutional shops are quietly “repurposing’ some of their internal talent to the oil and gas space, with some even planning to hire energy industry teams.

Energy Security

Part of the optimism for the space is the realization that the geopolitical landscape is not as stable as it has been. Both conferences referenced the likelihood of food and energy shortages in the next decade.  “There are going to be riots in Europe this winter,” said Jim Wicklund of Wicklund & Associates.  With issues ranging from wars to fertilizer to pipelines; the focus in the U.S. on energy transition in the longer term may have overlooked energy security in the shorter term.

Part of the optimism for the space is the realization that the geopolitical landscape is not as stable as it has been

We can export 12 BCF a day now, but will that be enough for Europe’s needs this winter?  Mohit Singh, Chesapeake’s new CFO said that 75% of future demand growth in gas will come from LNG.  The key will be takeaway, and the next wave of LNG completions are supposed to be in 2025 or 2026, where we may be able to export closer to 28 BCF per day.  However, in the meantime, there may be more turmoil as energy markets attempt to get energy where it is needed now in both Europe and Asia.

Multiple speakers and panelists lamented the overreach of the idea of energy transition to renewables at the expense of potentially available energy today.  Some expressed optimism that the Inflation Reduction Act would help remove bottlenecks on a lot of renewable projects; however, they conceded that it still won’t change the situation in the shorter term.  In addition, most panelists agreed that disincentivizing and demonizing the oil and gas industry during this energy transition has been a mistake.

Jay Allison of Comstock Resources, who received the Energy Executive of the Year award at the D-CEO Awards Dinner, put it this way: “When Henry Ford invented the Model T, he didn’t kill all the horses.”

Thanks again to everyone we connected with this week.  The conversations were terrific, and we enjoyed seeing all of you.

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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