Transaction Advisory, Oil & Gas
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April 5, 2024

5 Reasons Upstream Sellers Need a Quality of Earnings Report

Apart from a number of headline deals, M&A activity was sidelined for much of 2022 and 2023. But needing to replenish a depleting asset base with quality mineral acreage, stabilizing interest rates, and pent-up M&A demand are expected to compel buyers and sellers to renew their efforts in 2024 and beyond.

As deal activity recovers, sellers need to be prepared to present their value proposition in a compelling manner.  For many sellers, an independent Quality of Earnings (“QofE”) analysis and report are vital to advancing and defending their asset’s value in the marketplace.  And it can be critical to the ensuing due diligence processes buyers apply to targets.

The scope of a QofE engagement can be tailored to the needs of the seller.  Functionally, a QofE provider examines and assesses the relevant historical and prospective performance of a business.  The process can encompass both the financial and operational attributes of the business model.

In this article, we review five reasons sellers benefit from a QofE report when responding to an acquisition offer or preparing to take their businesses or assets to market.

1. Maximize value by revealing adjusted and future sustainable profitability.

Sellers should leave no stone unturned when it comes to identifying the maximum achievable cash flow and profitability of their assets.  Every dollar affirmed brings value to sellers at the market multiple.  Few investments yield as handsomely and as quickly as a thorough QofE report.  A lack of preparation or confused responses to a buyer’s due diligence will assuredly compromise the outcome of a transaction.  The QofE process includes examining the relevant historical period (say two or three years) to adjust for discretionary and non-recurring income and expense events, as well as depicting the future (pro forma) financial potential from the perspective of likely buyers.  The QofE process addresses the questions of why, when, and how future cash flow can benefit sellers and buyers.  Sellers need this vital information for clear decision-making, fostering transparency, and instilling trust and credibility with their prospective buyers.

2. Promote command and control of transaction negotiations and deal terms.

Sellers who understand their objective historical performance and future prospects are better prepared to communicate and achieve their expectations during the transaction process.  A robust QofE analysis can filter out bottom-dwelling opportunists while establishing the readiness of the seller to engage in efficient, meaningful negotiations on pricing and terms with qualified buyers.  After core pricing is determined, other features of the transaction, such as working capital, assumption of asset retirement obligations, thresholds for contingent consideration, and other important deal parameters, are established.  These seemingly lower-priority details can have a meaningful effect on closing cash and escrow requirements.  The QofE process assists sellers and their advisors in building the high road and keeping the deal within its guardrails.

3. Cover the bases for board members, owners, and the advisory team and optimize their ability to contribute to the best outcome.

The financial and fiduciary risk of being underinformed in the transaction process is difficult to overcome and can have real consequences.  Businesses can be lovingly nurtured with operating excellence, sometimes over generations of ownership, only to suffer from a lack of preparation, underperformance from stakeholders who lack transactional expertise, and underrepresentation when it most matters.  The QofE process is like training camp for athletes — it measures in realistic terms what the numbers and the key metrics are and helps sellers amplify strengths and mitigate weaknesses.  Without proper preparation, sellers can falter when countering an offer, placing the optimal outcome at risk.  In short, a QofE report helps position the seller’s board members, managers, and external advisors to achieve the best outcome for shareholders.

4. Financial statements and tax returns are insufficient for sophisticated buyers.

Time and timing matter.  A QofE report improves the efficiency of the transaction process for buyers and sellers.  It provides a transparent platform for defining and addressing significant reporting and compliance issues.  There is no better way to build a data set for all advisors and prospective buyers than the process of a properly administered QofE engagement.  This can be particularly important for sellers whose level of financial reporting has been lacking, changing, outmoded due to growth, or contains intricacies that are easily misunderstood.

For sellers content to work their own deals with their neighbors and friendly rivals, a QofE engagement can provide some of the disciplines and organization typically delivered by a side-side representative.  While we hesitate to promote a DIY process in this increasingly complicated world, a QofE process can touch on many of the points that are required to negotiate a deal.  Sellers who are busy running their businesses rarely have the turnkey skills to conduct an optimum exit process.  A QofE engagement can be a powerful supporting tool.

5. In one form or another, buyers are going to conduct a QofE process – what about sellers?

Buyers are remarkably efficient at finding cracks in the financial facades of targets.  Most QofE work is performed as part of the buy-side due diligence process and is often used by buyers to adjust their offering price (post-LOI) and design their terms.  It is also used to facilitate their financing and satisfy the scrutiny of underlying financial and strategic investors.  In the increasing arms race of the transaction environment, sellers need to equip themselves with a counteroffensive tool to stake their claim and defend their ground.  If a buyer’s LOI is “non-binding” and subject to change upon the completion of due diligence, sellers need to equip themselves with information to advance and hold their position.

Conclusion

The stakes are high in the transaction arena.  Whether embarking on a sale process or responding to an unsolicited inquiry, sellers have precious few opportunities to set the tone.  A QofE process equips sellers with the confidence of understanding their own position while engaging the buy-side with awareness and transparency that promotes a more efficient negotiating process and the best opportunity for a favorable outcome.  If you are considering a sale, give one of our senior professionals a call to discuss how our QofE team can help maximize your results.

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EP Second Quarter 2026 Permian Basin
E&P Second Quarter 2026

Region Focus: Permian Basin

The Permian Basin continued to demonstrate its resilience in the twelve-month period through June 30, 2026 (the review period). Despite a modest decline in rig counts, production reached new highs as operators continued to emphasize capital discipline, drilling efficiencies, and productivity improvements. Heightened geopolitical tensions introduced considerably greater volatility into commodity markets during the latter portion of the review period, yet oil prices ended above year-earlier levels and Permian public companies posted strong stock price appreciation. While basin operators continue to balance disciplined capital allocation with long-term production growth, the Permian remains the nation’s premier oil-producing basin and continues to demonstrate its ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Just Released: Q2 2026 Oil & Gas Industry Newsletter
Just Released: Q2 2026 Oil & Gas Industry Newsletter
Regional Focus: The Permian BasinThe Permian continued to demonstrate its resilience in the twelve-month period through June 30, 2026 (the review period). Despite a modest decline in rig counts, production reached new highs as operators continued to emphasize capital discipline, drilling efficiencies, and productivity improvements. Heightened geopolitical tensions introduced considerably greater volatility into commodity markets during the latter portion of the review period, yet oil prices ended above year-earlier levels and Permian public companies posted strong stock price appreciation. While basin operators continue to balance disciplined capital allocation with long-term production growth, the Permian remains the nation’s premier oil-producing basin and continues to demonstrate its ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Bryce Erickson Discusses the Changing Economics of Upstream Asset Valuations with Hart Energy
Bryce Erickson Discusses the Changing Economics of Upstream Asset Valuations with Hart Energy
Mercer Capital’s Energy Industry Team Leader, Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS, recently shared his perspective on upstream asset valuations in two features published by Hart Energy.Bryce joined other industry professionals at Hart Energy’s 2026 Energy Capital Conference, where he participated in the panel, “Asset Valuations in a High-Price World: Separating Signal from Noise.” The discussion examined how investors, lenders, and operators are assessing energy assets amid elevated commodity prices, increasingly scarce drilling inventory, and continued consolidation across the upstream sector.Markets Turn Their Attention to Tier 2 and Tier 3 AcreageIn a video interview with Hart Energy’s Chris Mathews, Bryce discusses how the scarcity of available Tier 1 acreage is directing greater attention toward Tier 2 and Tier 3 opportunities.As the inventory of premium drilling locations becomes increasingly concentrated, buyers are looking more closely at assets that may previously have received less attention. Higher commodity prices and continued improvements in drilling and completion techniques can make some of these locations more economically attractive. However, broad acreage classifications tell only part of the story. Investors must still examine the specific geology, operating costs, development plans, decline expectations, and risks associated with each asset. Bryce’s comments underscore the importance of disciplined, asset-specific underwriting as competition expands beyond traditionally defined core acreage.How the “Last Cheap Barrels” May Influence BidsHart Energy’s Lisa El-Amin further explores the relationship between inventory scarcity and upstream deal values in “How the Last Cheap Barrels May Be Shaping Today’s Bids” (subscription required).The article considers how competition is shifting toward a diminishing pool of drilling locations capable of generating attractive returns at approximately $50 oil, with much of that inventory concentrated in the Permian Basin. As low-breakeven locations become harder to acquire or replace, buyers may be willing to place greater value on assets offering durable inventory, favorable cost structures, and a long development runway. The result is an M&A market in which bids are increasingly influenced by the quality and scarcity of future drilling opportunities—not simply current production or near-term commodity prices.Valuation ImplicationsTogether, the two Hart Energy features highlight that asset quality and inventory durability are becoming more visible, and potentially more valuable, as the shale sector matures.Determining how these factors affect a particular company or asset requires careful analysis of its reserves, development inventory, cost structure, operating assumptions, and expected cash flows. Mercer Capital has assisted clients with a wide range of valuation needs in the upstream oil and gas industry across both conventional and unconventional plays in North America and around the world. Contact a Mercer Capital professional to discuss your valuation needs in confidence.

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