First Quarter 2025 | Segment Focus: Residential Construction

Executive Industry Trends

During Q1 2025, real GDP fell 0.07%, marking the first quarterly decrease since the beginning of 2022. This was driven by a decrease in government spending as well as a surge in imports as domestic companies stocked inventory in anticipation of tariffs.
Growth in residential and non-residential building sectors has slowed, with Value Put-in-Place up 2.8% and 2.9% Y-o-Y, respectively, on a seasonally adjusted annual basis.
Residential building sentiment has slowed, as the NAHB Housing Market and Remodeling Market Indices have fallen 23.5% and 4.6% Y-o-Y as of Q1 2025.
The presence of a new presidential administration and policy will have a significant impact on the industry. The Trump administration has indicated plans to cut government spending, lower inflation and interest rates, and increase existing or levy new tariffs, all of which will have various impacts on industry input prices, borrowing costs, and competitiveness. Q1 2025 saw the beginning of this process, with global steel and aluminum tariffs, blanket tariffs on Chinese goods, and blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Tariff policy has been highly fluid, generating increased volatility in both domestic and global financial markets.