Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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December 5, 2016

Royalty Interests Discover the Permian

In August 2016, we discussed bankruptcy and valuation issues related to royalty interest owners. We mentioned using the publicly traded market as one method to value royalty interests, specifically observing royalty trusts. As a primer for O&G royalty trusts, these trusts hold various royalty and net profit interests in wells operated by large exploration & production companies. These trusts have little in the way of operating expenses, have defined termination dates and can serve as an investment opportunity that provides exposure to oil and gas prices. This Motley Fool article, from 2014, explains the pros and cons of investing in this sort of vehicle.

Market indications are available in the form of publicly traded oil & gas (“O&G”) royalty trusts. There are approximately 20 oil and gas focused royalty trusts publicly traded, as of the date of this article.1

table_permian-royalty-trust

Market Observations

Royalty trusts, like the rest of the oil and gas industry, have been hit hard over the previous 29 months. Before the bottom fell out, oil traded as high as $106.86 in June of 2014 and plunged to a low of $29.05 in February of 2016. Since February, the price of oil appears to have found a new home around $50 / barrel. Here is a comparison of the 20 publicly traded royalty trusts’ metrics today versus one year ago.

table_royalty-trust-metrics

Observations and Disclaimers:

  1. Price to revenue and price to distributable income indicate, on average, the trusts are more expensive now than a year ago. This is a flip from our August 2016 blog post when multiples were lower in July 2016 than July 2015.
  2. Yields were higher last year as trailing yields did not reflect the quickly falling market price.
  3. As of today, market prices have leveled off and annual distributions are comprised of a full year of lower royalty payments, resulting in lower yields compared to a year ago.
  4. Price to PV 10 is higher this year compared to last. The remaining observations are for commodity prices, both current and futures price for the 12 month contract.
  5. Disclaimer: no two of the above royalty trusts are alike. Differences abound in asset mix, asset location, term, and resource mix, just to name a few. In future blog posts, we will explore each trust individually and discuss their uniqueness.
Below is a chart of the market price performance for each royalty trust over the last two years. chart_royalty-trust-perf-161203 The above chart looks very similar to the performance of the price of oil and gas over the same time period. Royalty interest owners have seen their monthly payments move in the same manner, and possibly have not experienced the small rebound during 2016. chart_oil-gas-perf-161203 Uncertainty is high as some operators have been forced to file bankruptcy after commodity prices have remained low for too long for them to survive. Three of the above 20 royalty trusts are tied to SandRidge Energy. In May 2016, SandRidge Filed for Bankruptcy Reorganization and Emerged from Bankruptcy in October 2016. During this time, the three royalty trusts: (1) SandRidge Mississippian Trust 12, (2) SandRidge Mississippian Trust II3 and (3) SandRidge Permian Trust4 experienced the following performance: chart_sandridge The popularity of the Permian Basin is nothing new this year. In oil and gas, location is key when trying to generate returns on invested capital. Even as the price of oil is near three year lows, transaction activity is high in this area of the country.  Royalty Trusts appear to support the trend to try to get a piece of the very hot Permian Basin. Add on the reserve discovery in the Wolfcamp formation by the United States Geological Survey last month and it is clear that there is no other place to be drilling for oil right now. This attention appears to have spread into the royalty trusts. As the publicly traded price indicates, after SandRidge Energy files for bankruptcy, albeit “pre-arranged reorganization,” each of the three related royalty trusts decline. The price of the two trusts which do not own properties in the Permian Basin decline more than 20% initially after the bankruptcy filing while the SandRidge Permian Trust’s price declines only 6%.  Upon emergence from bankruptcy, the trust with Permian related assets was up 11% while the two non-Permian related trusts were down more than 35%. Depending on your situation, the current pricing environment may provide excellent planning opportunities as market prices are relatively low. With the Treasury Department attempting to change the way gift and estate planning can be performed, it is even more timely to execute a transfer plan.  Contact Mercer Capital to discuss your needs in confidence and learn more about how we can help you succeed.

End Notes

1 Data for charts and tables for this post are from Capital IQ 2 The Trust holds Royalty Interests in specified oil and natural gas properties located in the Mississippian formation in Alfalfa, Garfield, Grant and Woods counties in Oklahoma. (respective 10-K, March 2016) 3 The Trust holds Royalty Interests in specified oil and natural gas properties located in the Mississippian formation in Alfalfa, Grant, Kay, Noble and Woods counties in northern Oklahoma and Barber, Comanche, Harper and Sumner counties in southern Kansas. (respective 10-K, March 2016) 4 The Trust holds Royalty Interests in specified oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin located in Andrews County, Texas. (respective 10-K, March 2016)

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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