Fed Rate Cut(s) – Now What?
Rate cycles are predictable in one sense: a period of falling rates tends to follow a period of rising rates. The opposite is true, too. How much and how long the cycle will take are questions to ask, but are unknowable. Another question to ponder is whether the Fed leads or follows the market, when setting its short-term policy rates.
Now that the pandemic interest rate cycle is complete (rate cuts in 2020, rate hikes in 2022-2023) a new “downrate” cycle has begun. We take a high-level look at changes in yields, cost of funds (COF) and net interest margins (NIM) from past cycles to gauge how he unfolding downrate cycle may impact margins. ...
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