Earlier this month, I was in Western Oklahoma for a trial. Surrounded by the wide-open Great Plains and the unmistakable presence of oil and gas infrastructure, it was impossible not to think about the industry’s influence on the region. A few people asked me if I had watched the acclaimed show, Landman, and as I hadn't, I started the series on my flights home.
Fittingly, my colleague Bryce Erickson authored a 2026 outlook for the natural gas industry that was originally published on Forbes.com where he is a contributor and it was reprinted on Mercer Capital’s Energy Valuation Insights Blog.
As a timely complement to my own experiences this month, we feature the piece in this month’s Family Law Valuation and Forensic Insights.
- Karolina Calhoun, CPA, ABV, CFF
U.S. natural gas markets appear to be entering 2026 with a sense of déjà vu. Although the snowstorm sweeping the country has spiked prices over $5 per mcf and short-term futures prices over $6 (with local prices spiking far higher than that in certain areas), overall outlook for most prognosticators is below $4 for most of the year. Prices remain volatile, equities have struggled to find consistent footing and investor sentiment still skews cautious. Yet beneath the surface, production behavior, infrastructure progress and demand growth are aligning in ways that look more constructive than public market indications might suggest.
This disconnect is not new. Natural gas has long been viewed by many as a trading commodity rather than a long-duration asset. What is different in this cycle is that producers, infrastructure developers and capital providers seemed to have adjusted faster than equity markets. Supply growth these days is constrained more by choice and infrastructure, and less by geology. Demand is increasingly anchored by LNG exports and power generation tied to data centers; and capital structures are increasingly designed to wait rather than force growth or exits.
The result is a market still pricing gas for volatility, while fundamentals quietly tighten. ...