Coming into 2020, vehicle volumes in the U.S. were anticipated to dip below 17 million light vehicles sold.  The industry had eclipsed this mark in each year since 2014, though 2019 cut it close. Like most industries, automotive retail got off to a strong start in 2020.  While SAAR was just below the 17.0 million mark at 16.9 in January and 16.8 million in February, the boost of a leap year falling on a Saturday had total volumes at just shy of 2.5 million, up 4.5% from 2019.  While dealers were hopeful volumes would remain high, we all know what happened next in March and April, which put to rest any notion of 17 million vehicles sold.  In the U.S., 14.46 million units were sold in 2020 representing a 14.7% decline and the lowest total since 2012. Normalizing only March and April to their 2019 levels, volumes in 2020 would have been 15.7 million, showing nearly half the 2020 decline occurred in just those two months.

The decline can also be attributed to a significant reduction in fleet sales as the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on travel caused several major rental car companies to cancel orders.  In December 2020, monthly retail sales appear to have actually improved 0.5% from 2019, compared to a 33% decline in fleet volumes.  Viewed another way, fleet sales represented only about 14.3% of total volumes in 2020, compared to a 19.6% share in 2019.  We touched on the impact of retail vs total SAAR last month.

The pandemic had a material impact on the sales process in March/April and the sales mix from fleet to retail, predictions from before the pandemic about sales volumes weren’t that far off the mark once stay at home orders were relaxed and dealers figured out how to navigate the new protocols. By September, SAAR had returned above 16 million. However, no month in 2020 reached seasonally adjusted volumes of 17 million, a mark reached seven times in 2019 and every month but two in 2018. So, while nobody could have predicted the depths of the pandemic, we see that the initial expectation of a lower run rate may have been correct.

Eisenhower once said, “Plans are worthless, but planning is indispensable.” According to Scott Galloway, Professor at NYU Stern School of Business, “the same is true for predictions – they matter for the strategy and data behind them. Predictions are useless, but scenario planning is invaluable.” I find this quote to be even more telling as it appeared in a piece about predictions for 2020, which just about everyone missed.

Heading into 2021, we’re going to make some predictions.  While they may or may not prove true in 2021, we believe this exercise is beneficial for auto dealers who should be looking forward to what the year might bring and prepare themselves should these trends materialize.  While nobody could have predicted their need for Clorox and face masks, the pivot to digital offerings and more targeted advertising was already in motion prior to the pandemic.  Intentional planning can help prepare for what lies ahead, whether or not things actually unfold as you project.  It’s the preparation itself that’s meaningful.

Inventory Constraints Lessen and Fixed Operations Returns

This prediction is based on the trends seen at the end of 2020 continuing through 2021.  As vaccine distribution ramps up, auto manufacturing should continue as well.  The speed of each of these will likely be a significant factor in total volumes in 2021.  Fixed operations, particularly collision, were diminished in 2020 with fewer road miles driven.  Due to inventory constraints and potential affordability concerns, among other reasons, consumers shifted towards used vehicles.  We anticipate normalizing inventories and an improving economy should both tilt the mix back towards more new vehicles.  However, the recent increase in used vehicle sales should increase the average age of vehicles on the road, which tends to spur more business for dealers’ service and parts departments.  Since this is the highest margin business for auto dealers, we see tailwinds in terms of total profitability.  While higher volumes can bring in more bonus money to dealers on the backend, at the end of the day, profitability is what drives value for auto dealers.

Crossovers Remain Popular as Low Gas Prices and High EV Battery Costs Don’t Make the Trade-Off Worth It to the Bulk of Consumers, Yet.

Pickup trucks accounted for 19.7% of market share, higher than all cars combined (small, midsized, and large) excluding luxury. Combined with crossovers (43.3%), SUVs (8.7%), and vans (4.7%), light trucks accounted for 76.4% of all sales, up from 72.1% in 2019 and 69.2% in 2018.  Larger vehicles have become increasingly popular with consumers, and low gas prices and improved MPGs reduce the costs of the trade-up in size.  Even inventory shortages and reduced incentives haven’t deterred demand in this segment.  Incentives in December 2020 were down 12.7% from 2019, which along with the continued shift to higher priced vehicles, pushed average transaction prices to all-time highs of just over $38 thousand per vehicle.

Nearly 96% of vehicles sold in 2020 were gas or diesel-powered, with EVs making up only 1.4% of the market.  While there has been significant investment in this space, and an incoming Democratic administration portends a shift towards sustainable fuels, we do not anticipate this to materially accelerate in 2021.  Instead, most of the EV progress anticipated in 2021 is more likely to be along the lines of infrastructure investment, legislative assistance, and vehicle improvements.  While many manufacturers such as Volvo have made claims their cars will be all-electric by 2030, we see that progress being back-ended.  While Elon Musk claimed EV battery costs could be cut in half, but this will still be years from now.  Ultimately, until the sticker price can meaningfully compete, EV’s won’t reach the majority of consumers.

SAAR of 16 Million (Above NADA’s Forecasted Figure of 15.5 Million)

NADA is forecasting a SAAR of 15.5 million in 2021, making our prediction slightly on the bullish side. While the industry appears set for a second straight year below 17 million, improved margins could leave dealers with higher gross profits, which would be a welcomed trade in the industry. According to NADA, headwinds for the vehicle market in 2021 include continued increases in COVID-19 cases, which could lead to production disruptions along the vehicle supply chain. They further noted a global shortage of semiconductor microchips used in many facets of auto production and tight inventory on dealer lots, particularly for pickup trucks. Alternatively, tailwinds for 2021 include a potential economic boom in the second half of the year once a coronavirus vaccination is widely available, and Americans return to work from WFH. Auto retailers also stand to benefit if consumers continue to prefer personal vehicle ownership over rideshare services and public transportation. Finally, low interest rates keep cars affordable, and the Fed has indicated it intends to continue to be accommodative, which should support vehicle demand.

Conclusion

As auto dealers know, SAAR is a decent gauge on the industry, but it tells us very little on its own. While we believe it’s important to track, we recognize the inherent limitations of just volumes. In the proper context of incentive spending, profitability, and other key metrics, SAAR can be helpful. While dealers can see how their volumes compare to wider industry trends, dealers need to focus on the underlying trends within their local markets to contextualize performance to make sure they are staying ahead of the curve.

For an in-depth analysis of how your dealership fits in the auto dealer marketplace, contact a member of Mercer Capital’s Auto Dealer team today.