Alternatives

October 1, 2024

E&P Fourth Quarter 2024

Bakken, DJ Basin, and Woodford Shale

Executive Summary

As a supplement to our usual regional coverage, this quarter we take a closer look at the Bakken, DJ Basin, and Woodford Shale.  On an oil equivalent basis, the DJ Basin ended the review period 2% below production levels from a year earlier, while the Bakken ended at nearly 5% lower.  Only the Woodford Shale ended the review period at a level above its November 2023 production, though at a negligible 0.1% higher.

While not nearly in the same league as the powerhouse Permian Basin, the Bakken Shale, DJ, and Woodford Shale play an important role in U.S. energy production.  While these basins mostly experience the same impacts that U.S. energy policy and geopolitical matters have on the primary U.S. basins, they each have unique characteristics that differentiate them from the larger basins and each other.  The Bakken has high-quality crude, a production profile shifting from oil to gas, and seasonal weather production interruptions.  The DJ focuses on tighter formations that require newer techniques and technologies to keep production costs in check and most efficiently use of limited water resources.  The Woodford and SCOOP/STACK have the dynamics of multiple formation layers and related multiple production zones that contribute to greater well depths and higher production costs.  These shared and unique characteristics combine to add to the general complexity and dynamics of the U.S. exploration and production industry.

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EP Second Quarter 2026 Permian Basin
E&P Second Quarter 2026

Region Focus: Permian Basin

The Permian Basin continued to demonstrate its resilience in the twelve-month period through June 30, 2026 (the review period). Despite a modest decline in rig counts, production reached new highs as operators continued to emphasize capital discipline, drilling efficiencies, and productivity improvements. Heightened geopolitical tensions introduced considerably greater volatility into commodity markets during the latter portion of the review period, yet oil prices ended above year-earlier levels and Permian public companies posted strong stock price appreciation. While basin operators continue to balance disciplined capital allocation with long-term production growth, the Permian remains the nation’s premier oil-producing basin and continues to demonstrate its ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Just Released: Q2 2026 Oil & Gas Industry Newsletter
Just Released: Q2 2026 Oil & Gas Industry Newsletter
Regional Focus: The Permian BasinThe Permian continued to demonstrate its resilience in the twelve-month period through June 30, 2026 (the review period). Despite a modest decline in rig counts, production reached new highs as operators continued to emphasize capital discipline, drilling efficiencies, and productivity improvements. Heightened geopolitical tensions introduced considerably greater volatility into commodity markets during the latter portion of the review period, yet oil prices ended above year-earlier levels and Permian public companies posted strong stock price appreciation. While basin operators continue to balance disciplined capital allocation with long-term production growth, the Permian remains the nation’s premier oil-producing basin and continues to demonstrate its ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Bryce Erickson Discusses the Changing Economics of Upstream Asset Valuations with Hart Energy
Bryce Erickson Discusses the Changing Economics of Upstream Asset Valuations with Hart Energy
Mercer Capital’s Energy Industry Team Leader, Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS, recently shared his perspective on upstream asset valuations in two features published by Hart Energy.Bryce joined other industry professionals at Hart Energy’s 2026 Energy Capital Conference, where he participated in the panel, “Asset Valuations in a High-Price World: Separating Signal from Noise.” The discussion examined how investors, lenders, and operators are assessing energy assets amid elevated commodity prices, increasingly scarce drilling inventory, and continued consolidation across the upstream sector.Markets Turn Their Attention to Tier 2 and Tier 3 AcreageIn a video interview with Hart Energy’s Chris Mathews, Bryce discusses how the scarcity of available Tier 1 acreage is directing greater attention toward Tier 2 and Tier 3 opportunities.As the inventory of premium drilling locations becomes increasingly concentrated, buyers are looking more closely at assets that may previously have received less attention. Higher commodity prices and continued improvements in drilling and completion techniques can make some of these locations more economically attractive. However, broad acreage classifications tell only part of the story. Investors must still examine the specific geology, operating costs, development plans, decline expectations, and risks associated with each asset. Bryce’s comments underscore the importance of disciplined, asset-specific underwriting as competition expands beyond traditionally defined core acreage.How the “Last Cheap Barrels” May Influence BidsHart Energy’s Lisa El-Amin further explores the relationship between inventory scarcity and upstream deal values in “How the Last Cheap Barrels May Be Shaping Today’s Bids” (subscription required).The article considers how competition is shifting toward a diminishing pool of drilling locations capable of generating attractive returns at approximately $50 oil, with much of that inventory concentrated in the Permian Basin. As low-breakeven locations become harder to acquire or replace, buyers may be willing to place greater value on assets offering durable inventory, favorable cost structures, and a long development runway. The result is an M&A market in which bids are increasingly influenced by the quality and scarcity of future drilling opportunities—not simply current production or near-term commodity prices.Valuation ImplicationsTogether, the two Hart Energy features highlight that asset quality and inventory durability are becoming more visible, and potentially more valuable, as the shale sector matures.Determining how these factors affect a particular company or asset requires careful analysis of its reserves, development inventory, cost structure, operating assumptions, and expected cash flows. Mercer Capital has assisted clients with a wide range of valuation needs in the upstream oil and gas industry across both conventional and unconventional plays in North America and around the world. Contact a Mercer Capital professional to discuss your valuation needs in confidence.

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