Corporate Valuation, Financial Services

February 3, 2016

How to Combat the Margin Blues?

Following the Great Recession, significant attention has been focused on bank earnings and earning power. While community bank returns on equity (ROE) have improved since the depths of the recession, they are still below pre-recession levels. One factor squeezing revenue is falling net interest margins (i.e., the difference between rates earned on loans and securities, and rates paid to depositors). Community banks are more margin dependent than their larger brethren and have been impacted to a greater extent from this declining NIM trend. As detailed in Figure 1 below, NIMs for community banks (defined to be those with assets between $100 million and $5 billion) have steadily declined and were at their lowest point in the last ten years in early 2015.

net-interest-income-trends While there are a number of factors that impact NIMs, the primary culprit for the declining trend is the interest rate environment. As the Federal Reserve's zero-interest rate policy ("ZIRP") grinds on, earning asset yields continue to reprice lower while deposit costs reached a floor several quarters ago. Loan growth has also been challenging for many banks for a variety of reasons, which has stoked competitive pressures and negatively impacted lending margins. While competitive pressures can come in many forms, several data-points indicate intense loan competition giving way to easing terms. For example, the April 2015 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices noted continued easing on terms in a number of loan segments. This appears to be supported further by reported community bank loan yields, which have slid close to 200 basis points (in all loan segments analyzed) since 2008 as shown in Figure 2. loan-yield-trends Aside from paying tribute to the late B.B. King and playing "Everyday, everyday I have the blues," what can community bankers do in order to combat the margin blues? While not all-encompassing, below we have listed a few strategic options to consider:
  • Increase Leverage. One strategic consideration to maintain ROE in light of declining NIMs may be to increase leverage subject to regulatory limits. Some potential ways to deploy available capital include growing loans organically, M&A, stock buybacks, and/or shareholder dividends. For those below $1 billion in assets, recent legislation has relaxed holding company capital requirements by exempting them from the consolidated regulatory capital ratios. For those that are capable, small bank holding companies may choose to upstream excess capital to the holding company from bank dividends or lever the holding company to fund special dividends and/or buybacks. This higher leverage strategy may be viewed as too aggressive by some shareholders and investors though.
  • Consider M&A. An investor at a recent community bank conference noted that he would rather see banks sell than head down lending's slippery slope. This is not surprising to hear because competitive lending pressures usually seed tomorrow's problem assets. M&A represents a classic solution to revenue headwinds in a mature industry whereby less profitable smaller companies sell to the larger ones creating economies of scale and enhanced profitability. Some signs of this can be seen in recent periods as deal activity has picked up. Beyond expense synergies, acquirers may see temporary NIM relief resulting from accretion income on the acquired assets, which are marked to fair value at acquisition. For those community banks below $1 billion in assets, the combination of the relaxed capital requirements for their holding companies and more options for holding company debt may attract some to consider M&A as a strategic option.
  • Acquire/Partner with Non-Financials. Another strategic option may be to expand into non-traditional bank business lines that are less capital intensive and offer prospects for non-interest income growth such as acquisitions or partnerships with insurance, wealth management, specialty finance, and/or financial technology companies. We have spoken on acquiring non-financials in different venues and there is some evidence of increased activity in the sector. For example, a recent article noted a growing trend in acquisitions of insurance brokers or agencies by banks and thrifts, with deal volume on pace to significantly exceed 2014. Another interesting example of this strategy being deployed includes the recent partnership announced between Lending Club and BancAlliance that allows over 200 community banks to access the peer-to-peer lending space.
  • Improve Efficiency by Leveraging Financial Technology. While compliance and regulatory costs continue to rise as NIMs decline, the industry faces intense pressure to improve efficiency. Technology is an opportunity to do so as both commercial and consumer customers become more comfortable with mobile and online banking. Thus, many banks may view the margin blues as a catalyst to consolidate and/or modernize their branch network and/or invest in improved technology offerings to reduce longer-term operating costs and still meet or exceed customer expectations.
  • Maintain Status Quo. Experience may lead bankers to wait on the Fed to act and usher a return to "normal" yields and "normal" NIMs. Banks with a healthy amount of variable rate loans and non-interest bearing deposits will see an immediate bump in revenue if short-term rates rise, while most traditional banks eventually will see a reversal in NIM trends. But as has been enumerated in past Bank Watch articles, rates have been expected to rise for a "considerable time," and yet continue to remain at historic lows.Further, the potential negative impact of rising rates on credit quality is difficult to foretell. Yet, even this status quo strategy may present some opportunities for those bankers to employ certain of the other strategies mentioned previously in small doses.
Mercer Capital has a long history of working with banks and helping to solve complex problems ranging from valuation issues to considering different strategic options. If you would like to discuss your bank's unique situation in confidence and ways that your bank may consider addressing the margin blues, feel free to give us a call or email.

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Community banks came into 2026 in better shape than many expected. Margins and earnings improved, deposits were growing again, loan growth held up, and unrealized losses on securities moved lower. On the surface, the story looks better than a year ago. But that does not mean the pressure is gone.For many community banks, the next big issue is not only rates or loan growth. It is whether the bank is big enough, focused enough, and efficient enough to carry the higher cost of being a modern bank. That cost includes more than salaries and branches. It also includes technology, cybersecurity, vendor management, fraud tools, compliance, and the people needed to run it well. The FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile shows that despite better net interest margins, the largest drag on earnings is the cost of running a modern bank.That is where many board conversations should be headed now. The challenge is simple to describe: banking keeps getting more expensive, the cost base is harder to flex, and smaller banks do not always have enough scale to spread those costs out. This does not mean every bank needs to sell but it does mean every bank needs to be honest about what it costs to stay independent.1. Which costs are truly fixed, and which ones are self-inflicted?Every bank has unavoidable costs for non-revenue generating activities, such as for risk management, compliance, and cybersecurity. But not every cost deserves the same treatment.Some banks are carrying real fixed costs. Others are carrying years of built-up complexity: too many vendors, too many products, too many exceptions, too many legacy processes, and too many branches doing less work than they used to.The distinction between real fixed costs and the just-as-real complexity costs matters. If management treats every expense as untouchable, the bank usually ends up protecting complexity instead of protecting value. Boards should push on that point. Which costs are now part of the price of doing business? And which costs are there because nobody has made the harder cleanup decisions? Those are two very different problems.2. Are we big enough, or focused enough, to make the model work?Scale matters in banking, which is not a new point. The part that often gets missed is that scale does not always have to come from simply getting bigger. Scale can come from size. It can also come from focus.A bank with a strong niche, an efficient branch footprint, a manageable product set, and good expense discipline can often perform better than a larger bank carrying too much overhead. Bigger is not always better if the added size comes with added complexity.That is an important point for community bank boards. The question is not just, “Do we need to grow?” The better question is, “Do we have a business model that can carry the cost structure we have today?” If the answer is no, the bank has a few options: it can grow, it can simplify, it can narrow its focus, it can outsource more of what does not set it apart, or it can decide that another partner may be better positioned to carry the platform going forward.Recent examples show the range of choices. Community Bank used a branch purchase from Santander to build scale in a target market; Five Star Bank’s parent chose to wind down BaaS and refocus on its core franchise; Mechanics Bank exited indirect auto and later outsourced servicing of the run-off portfolio; and Susquehanna chose to partner with C&N for greater scale, resiliency, and efficiency. In sum, there are plenty of proven options and choices.But doing nothing is also a choice. And in many cases, it is the most expensive one.3. How much does the expense base hurt shareholder value?This is where strategy turns into valuation. A bank is not credited just for spending money on technology, compliance, or infrastructure. It gets credited when those investments lead to better performance, better returns, better customer retention, better growth, and better risk control.If the bank carries a heavy cost base without a clear payoff, that usually shows up in weaker earnings and lower returns. Over time, it can also show up in a lower valuation, which matters even if the board has no near-term interest in selling. Valuation is not just about a sale; it is a scorecard on the strength of the franchise. A bank with strong returns and a clear strategy usually has more flexibility. A bank with weaker returns and too much complexity usually has fewer options.Timing matters. Banks have more breathing room now than they did a few years ago when interest rates increased sharply, with strong earnings and clean asset quality, and that is a good time to revisit strategic and technological plans.The issue in 2026 is not simply whether a community bank can remain independent. The issue is whether it can earn that independence after paying the ever-growing cost of being a modern bank.The banks that will stand out are not necessarily the biggest banks. They are the ones that know what they do well, run a cleaner model, and make sure their cost base supports the franchise instead of weighing it down. For some institutions, that will support long-term independence. For others, it may lead to a different conclusion.Either way, the discussion should start with a hard look at the expense base. In a lot of cases, the pressure to sell does not begin with a buyer showing up. It begins when the math stops working.About Mercer CapitalMercer Capital is a nationally recognized valuation and advisory firm serving financial institutions including banks, credit unions, fintech companies, insurance companies, investment management firms, financial sponsors, and other specialty finance firms. Mercer Capital regularly assists these clients with significant corporate valuation requirements, transactional advisory services, and other strategic decisions.

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