Auto Dealer Valuation Insights

A weekly update on issues important to the Auto Dealer industry

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Auto Dealer Valuation Insights


Special Topics Valuation Issues

Succession Planning for Auto Dealers

Sorting Through the Madness

What is succession planning? Succession planning is the transfer of value or leadership in a company or organization. For auto dealers, the dealership can represent a lifetime of efforts and relationships with key employees and customers.

This post discusses some of the key factors involved in the succession planning process and why they are so critical.

Public Auto Dealers Used Vehicles

Q4 2021 Earnings Calls

Inventory Shortages Continue to Dominate the Auto Dealership Operating Environment

Inventory shortages are at the forefront of many of Q4’s earnings calls themes. While dealers across the country are looking to increase their new vehicle inventories, used vehicles are in greater supply. Numerous executives noted they are carefully managing this used inventory to avoid getting burned on currently elevated prices. In addition to inventory shortages, we also highlight comments concerning dealers charging above MSRP and the effect that has on the market.

SAAR

February 2022 SAAR

The February SAAR was 14.1 million units, down 6.4% from last month and 11.7% below this time last year. The 2022 Q1 SAAR is expected to be the highest since Q2 2021 when the vehicle inventory shortage started to fully take hold. While the seasonally adjusted annual rate has certainly improved from the lows of late 2021, raw sales numbers tell a different story. Read more about it in this week’s post.

Special Topics Valuation Issues

Price vs. Value

How Can the Conclusion of Value for the Same Auto Dealership Be Different?

“Price” and “value” are terms that are often used interchangeably but their meaning may not be synonymous in the context of a private business, or in this case an auto dealership. In this post, we examine the differences between “price” and “value.”

Valuation Issues

LOV(E): Why Getting the Level of Value Right Is So Important to Auto Dealers

Part II

In this two-part series, we continue our exploration of the “Levels of value.” The Levels of Value refer to the idea that while “price” and “value” may be synonymous, they don’t quite mean the same thing. A nonmarketable minority interest level of value is very different from a strategic control interest level of value. Last week we described each Level of Value and why the concept is so important to auto dealers.

This week, we discuss four potential transactions in which selecting the appropriate level of value is critical and explain why: 1) estate planning, 2) corporate development, 3) divestitures, and 4) shareholder redemptions.

Valuation Issues

LOV(E): What Are the “Levels of Value” and Why Does It Matter to Auto Dealers?

Part I

In the spirit of Valentine’s Day, we cover a topic that may seem too theoretical; however, the shareholders in your business must understand it – LOV – or the “Levels of Value.” The Levels of Value refers to the idea that while “price” and “value” may be synonymous, they don’t quite mean the same thing. A nonmarketable minority interest level of value is very different from a strategic control interest level of value. In this week’s post, we explain what each level means and how each specifically relates to auto dealers. This will be the first part of a two-part blog series.

SAAR

January 2022 SAAR

SAAR reached a seven month high in January, totaling 15.0 million units on an annualized basis. SAAR was up 20.0% from last month but down 10.4% from January 2021. While the SAAR certainly improved, raw sales volume in January was the lowest it has been since April 2020. Read more about it in this week’s post.

Special Topics Valuation Issues

Don’t Turn a Blind Eye to Fixed Operations

A Look at the Importance and Stability of Fixed Operations

While fixed operations may not be grabbing any of the current headlines, auto dealers should remain focused on their importance and stability to the overall success and profitability of a dealership.  In this blog post, we analyze the recent historical contribution of fixed operations to overall dealership metrics, analyze several key indicators of future performance, and explore several myths and the changing landscape of the service department and customer relationship.

COVID-19 Coverage Electric Vehicles Special Topics Valuation Issues

The Future of Auto Dealerships

How Inventory Shortages and Electric Vehicles May Shape the Future of Automotive Retail

Just as December is a good time to look back and reflect, January is a good time to look forward, to 2022 and beyond. When we value auto dealerships, we look back at performance in prior years because this helps to inform reasonable expectations for future performance. Prior to the pandemic, the directly preceding twelve months of performance may have been a reasonable proxy for ongoing expectations. However, throughout 2020 and 2021, discussions about when things will return to “normal” or whether we’re in the “new normal” have taken center stage.

In order to look forward, we must also consider the past, or as Shakespeare’s Antonio would say, “What is past is prologue.” In this post, we look at two key trends in 2021 (inventory shortages and electric vehicles/direct selling) and how they may inform how automotive retailing will look in the future.

SAAR Special Topics

Auto Industry Trends to Monitor in 2022

Less Is More?

What trends can we expect to see in 2022 for the auto industry? What trends will we see “less” of? What trends will we see “more” of? In this post, we examine some of these trends and offer some predictions for industry conditions in 2022.

Electric Vehicles SAAR

December 2021 SAAR

The December SAAR totaled just 12.44 million units, down 3.5% from last month and 23.7% from December 2020. Inventory shortages, supply chain issues, and consistently high demand have been commonplace in the auto industry since the summer. That being the case, December’s low SAAR should not surprise many. In this week’s post, we discuss inventories, transaction prices, electric pickup trucks, and the outlook for January 2022.

Used Vehicles

2021: The Year of the Used Car

What Does This Mean for Dealers and Consumers?

2021 was an interesting year for auto dealers. In this post we discuss what things will look like when we return to a more “normal” operating environment. Specifically, what negative equity from used car buyers in 2021 may mean for dealerships.

SAAR

November 2021 SAAR

This month’s SAAR came in below expectations as the industry experienced only slight inventory improvement from the historic lows of September and October. For our last SAAR blog of 2021 we provide some commentary on what seemed to work well for auto dealers in 2021 and what changes might be around for a while.

Electric Vehicles Special Topics Valuation Issues

EV Start-Up Rivian IPOs at Valuation of $86 Billion

What It Means for Ford, Other OEMs, and Auto Dealers

Rivian Automotive has been in the news a lot recently given its eye-popping IPO. Ford has invested in Rivian and until recently was planning to jointly develop an EV. In this week’s post, we feature a recently published piece from our Family Business Director blog about Ford’s decision to invest in Rivian from Ford’s perspective.

Special Topics

Differing Perspectives on the Used Vehicle Market

Feast or Famine?

Headlines persist describing inventory shortages, record transaction prices, record profitability, and predictions for when conditions will return to normal. How do we make sense of all of it? What factors are contributing to the current conditions? Like the larger automotive industry as a whole, conditions can be described as the best of times and the worst of times, or feast or famine. Interpretation of the conditions can differ depending on the perspective of the consumer or the auto dealer.

In this weeks’ blog, we offer commentary on the status of the used vehicle market and re-examine used vehicle metrics through third quarter data. We also discuss how we got here and where we are headed.

SAAR

October 2021 SAAR

October 2021 SAAR was just shy of 13.0 million, as new light vehicle sales saw their first month-to-month gain since April. The October SAAR is up 6.3% from last month but remains 20.8% lower than last October. Auto dealers began the month with record low inventory levels of 972,000 units, and low inventories continue to keep car buying activity constrained.

Mergers, Acquisitions, & Divestitures Special Topics

The Tricks and Treats of the Buy/Sell Process from a Selling Dealer’s Perspective

Fall District Meeting Roundup

We recently attended a series of district meetings sponsored by a state auto dealer association. The topic on everyone’s mind was transactions. Because potential transactions seem to be top of mind for so many dealers, this post focuses on that. Because Halloween is right around the corner, we offer guidance about how to think about and structure a transaction in the form of Treats (what is true) as well as Tricks (what is not). We hope you enjoy the post and Happy Halloween!

Special Topics

Interpreting Inflation and Interest Rates for Auto Dealers

Can Retail Vehicle Prices Continue to Soar?

Inflation and interest rates are on more people’s minds lately due to supply chain disruptions across all industries. People understand how inflation and interest rates affect their daily lives when noticing the rising cost of goods/services and the cost to borrow money to buy a house, but many don’t realize that inflation and interest rates are interconnected. Inflation and interest rates are frequently linked when discussing macroeconomics and they tend to have an inverse relationship. When interest rates go up, in theory, inflation goes down. However, there are many more factors other than inflation and interest rates impacting the economy in the real world.

In this post, we discuss how we got to our current reality, what auto dealers might expect regarding inflation and interest rates, and how it all might impact the dealership.

SAAR

September 2021 SAAR

September 2021 SAAR was 12.2 million, dropping for the fifth consecutive month amidst an ongoing inventory shortage. The September SAAR was the lowest since May 2020’s 12.1 million units but has not fallen near the COVID-19 pandemic low of 8.6 million units in April of 2020. Tight inventories limited both fleet and retail sales in September, which has been the same case over the last four months. Fleet sales continue to fall as a percent of total sales, making up just 12% over the last month as higher profit retail sales continue to be prioritized.

Mergers, Acquisitions, & Divestitures Public Auto Dealers Special Topics

September Acquisitions by Sonic, Asbury, and Group 1 and What They Mean for Privately Held Auto Dealerships

Smallest Public Players Getting Larger

In three consecutive weeks, 117 auto dealerships were bought across 3 transactions, each scooping up more dealerships than the last. The three smaller pure-play public auto dealership companies (Group 1 Automotive, Sonic Automotive and Asbury Auto Group) all made sizable acquisitions in a red hot M&A market coming after Lithia purchased a large private auto group back in April.

In this week’s post we discuss how these transactions highlight a couple of key themes in the marketplace for auto dealers.

Special Topics Valuation Issues

Tax/Estate Planning Cheat Sheet for Auto Dealers

Winds of Change?

Benjamin Franklin famously said that the only things certain in this life are death and taxes. While both may be certain, taxes are always subject to change.

In this post, we focus on four particular proposals from the Build Back Better Act that impact estate planning and business valuations for auto dealers: 1) Estate Tax / Lifetime Exclusion; 2) Corporate Income Tax Rates; 3) Capital Gains Rates; and 4) Valuation Discounts for Passive Assets.

Auto Dealerships

Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services to companies throughout the nation in the auto dealer industry.