Healthcare Facilities

September 12, 2025

An Overview of Senior Care / Long-Term Care as of Q2 2025

Introduction

Senior care is a large and growing industry in the United States. Growth is primarily predicated on demographic shifts, with an aging population likely to need both general and specialized living assistance. The industry includes a wide range of services, from independent living and assisted living to skilled nursing and hospice care. Most long-term care offerings of various stripes are also generally understood to be part of the senior care industry.

Demographic Trends and Demand Drivers 

The aging population in the U.S. is the primary driver of growth in the senior care industry. The elderly population (persons aged 65 and above) in the U.S. totaled 60 million in 2023 (18% of the population). The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the number of elderly individuals will reach approximately 93 million by 2065, representing more than 25% of the total population. This demographic shift will lead to a corresponding increase in the demand for various types of senior care services.

Long-term gains in life expectancy and advancements in healthcare have resulted in more individuals surviving until advanced age (even within the elderly group). Many of these individuals will experience chronic conditions, mobility issues, cognitive decline, or other medical needs that require assistance. As a result, significant growth is expected in the demand for care services ranging from in-home assistance to institutional care in nursing homes or memory care facilities.

Revenue Size and Payers

By one estimate, the U.S. senior care industry (broadly defined as long-term services and supports) accounted for $415 billion in spending in 2022. Home and community-based services represented the majority ($284 billion), with spending at institutional settings making up the balance of the total. Medicaid paid for the largest share of the spending (61%), followed by out-of-pocket (17%), and other public and private payers. Spending is projected to grow steadily in response to the increasing elderly population and demand for both skilled and non-skilled care services.

The revenue generated by the senior care industry is distributed across various sub-sectors, including home healthcare, nursing homes, assisted living, and hospice care. Each of these areas has experienced distinct growth patterns and presents unique opportunities and challenges.

Continuum of Care

The continuum of care in the senior care industry refers to the range of services available to older adults, from independent living to intensive medical care.

  1. Home Health Care: Home healthcare provides medical and non-medical services to seniors in their homes. This is the fastest-growing sector of the senior care industry, with revenues estimated at $103 billion in 2020 and projected to be $173 billion by 2026. Technological advancements in telehealth, patient preference for aging in place, and cost savings are fueling growth in this area.

  2. Independent Living: Independent living communities cater to older adults who are generally healthy and do not need medical assistance but prefer to live in a community with services such as meals, social activities, and housekeeping. By one estimate, there are more than 750,000 independent living housing units in the U.S. Occupancy of the units is estimated to approach 90%. Projected growth in independent living is tied closely to increasing demand for retirement communities.

  3. Assisted Living: Assisted living facilities provide support with activities of daily living such as bathing, dressing, and medication management. The U.S. had more than 1 million residents in assisted living communities in 2020, supported by about 1.2 million licensed beds across more than 32,000 facilities. More than half of these residents are 85 or older and two-thirds are female. The national median cost for assisted living services is approximately $64,000 annually. The growth of assisted living is projected to be in line with the aging population, increasing by approximately 4–6% annually.

  4. Skilled Nursing Facilities (SNF): Skilled nursing facilities offer more intensive medical care for seniors who have serious health conditions, require rehabilitation, or need assistance with a broad range of medical needs. In 2020, there were approximately 1.3 million nursing home residents in the U.S., with 1.6 million licensed beds. Revenues totaled $130.1 billion that year. Growth in this sector is understood to be relatively slower due to rising preference for home care and staffing challenges.

  5. Memory Care: This sub-sector includes care for seniors with Alzheimer’s disease, dementia, and other forms of cognitive impairment. Memory care facilities are often separate from assisted living, providing specialized care. The number of memory care beds in the U.S. was estimated to be around 255,000 in 2020. According to an estimate, total revenue for the sector was $5.8 billion in 2022, and is projected to grow approximately 5% annually over the medium term.

  6. Hospice Care: Hospice care is provided for seniors with a terminal illness, focusing on comfort rather than curative treatment. The hospice market serves approximately 1.5 million patients annually. Revenue for the U.S. hospice market is estimated at approximately $30 billion for 2024, with steady growth projected at 4–6% annually through 2030.

Private Equity Involvement

In 2024, around 25% of hospices were owned by private equity and another 40% were operated by other for-profit entities. Between 2011 and 2019, there were more than 400 private equity transactions involving hospices, and the majority involved purchase of previously nonprofit agencies. By one estimate, PE investments represent approximately 5% of all nursing home (SNF) facilities. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are estimated to own 9% of nursing home facilities in the U.S.

Challenges and Opportunities

While the senior care industry faces a variety of challenges, including staffing shortages, regulatory pressures, and rising costs, there are also numerous opportunities for growth. Advances in technology, such as telemedicine, artificial intelligence, and remote patient monitoring, offer new ways to provide care and improve efficiency. Additionally, the demand for non-medical services, such as home modifications and social engagement programs, presents growth avenues.

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Originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Healthcare Facilities newsletter: Q2 2025.

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Sellers should not be overly swayed by the pick-up in dividends from swapping into the buyer’s shares; however, multiple studies have demonstrated that a sizable portion of an investor’s return comes from dividends over long periods of time. Sellers should examine the sustainability of current dividends and the prospect for increases (or decreases). Also, if the dividend yield is notably above the peer average, the seller should ask why? Is it payout related, or are the shares depressed?Share Repurchases. Does the acquirer allocate some portion of cash flow for repurchases? If not, why not assuming adequate cash flow to do so?Capex Requirements. An analysis of capex requirements should focus on whether the business plan will necessitate a step-up in spending vs history and if so implications for shareholder distributions.Capital Stack.Sellers should have a full understanding of the buyer’s capital structure and the amount of cash flow that must be dedicated to debt service before considering capex and shareholder distributions.Revenue Concentrations. Does the buyer have any revenue or supplier concentrations? If so, what would be the impact if lost and how is the concentration reflected in the buyer’s current valuation.Ability to Raise Cash to Close.What is the source of funds for the buyer to fund the cash portion of consideration? If the buyer has to go to market to issue equity and/or debt, what is the contingency plan if unfavorable market conditions preclude floating an issue?Consensus Analyst Estimates.If the buyer is publicly traded and has analyst coverage, consideration should be given to Street expectations vs. what the diligence process determines. If Street expectations are too high, then the shares may be vulnerable once investors reassess their earnings and growth expectations.Valuation. Like profitability, valuation of the buyer’s shares should be judged relative to its history and a peer group presently and relative to a peer group through time to examine how investors’ views of the shares may have evolved through market and profit cycles.Share Performance.Sellers should understand the source of the buyer’s shares performance over several multi-year holding periods. For example, if the shares have significantly outperformed an index over a given holding period, is it because earnings growth accelerated? Or, is it because the shares were depressed at the beginning of the measurement period? Likewise, underperformance may signal disappointing earnings, or it may reflect a starting point valuation that was unusually high.Strategic Position. Assuming an acquisition is material for the buyer, directors of the selling board should consider the strategic position of the buyer, asking such questions about the attractiveness of the pro forma company to other acquirers?Contingent Liabilities. Contingent liabilities are a standard item on the due diligence punch list for a buyer. Sellers should evaluate contingent liabilities too.The list does not encompass every question that should be asked as part of the fairness analysis, but it does illustrate that a liquid market for a buyer’s shares does not necessarily answer questions about value, growth potential and risk profile. We at Mercer Capital have extensive experience in valuing and evaluating the shares (and debt) of financial and non-financial service companies garnered from over three decades of business.
Vulcan Materials’ Acquisition of U.S. Concrete
Vulcan Materials’ Acquisition of U.S. Concrete
As participants in and observers of mergers and acquisitions, the 2021 acquisition of U.S. Concrete, Inc. (“U.S. Concrete”) by Vulcan Materials Company (“Vulcan Materials”) (NYSE: VMC) is a terrific opportunity to study the valuation nuances of the construction and building materials industry. In this article, we look at the fairness opinions delivered by Evercore and BNP Paribas rendered to the U.S. Concrete board regarding the transaction and provide some observations on the methodologies utilized by these two investment banks.
One Strike and We’re Out?
One Strike and We’re Out?

The ILA Strike and It’s Implications on Industry Data

At the beginning of October, we attended the Memphis World Trade Club’s annual Memphis Logistics Summit. In conjunction with the New Orleans Port Night, the Memphis Logistics Summit gathers players from a wide cross section of the transportation industry to discuss the industry, current events, and new technology. The Summit began on October 2nd and the schedule was filled with excellent panels and speakers. The space between sessions was filled, of course, with discussions of the ILA strike and how it was impacting different aspects of the transportation world.
Q4 2024- Segment Focus: Ambulatory Surgery Centers
Healthcare Facilities Q4 2024

Segment Focus: Ambulatory Surgery Centers

Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASCs) have seen a significant increase in popularity during the past few years. Currently in the United States, there are 11,555 active centers, representing a 3% year over year increase.
2024 Core Deposit Intangibles Update
2024 Core Deposit Intangibles Update
Although deal activity has been slow, we have seen a marginal uptick in core deposit intangible values relative to this time last year.
Equity Capital Raises
Equity Capital Raises
The banking zeitgeist is evolving: 2023 was about a liquidity crisis that claimed three banks who were members of the S&P 500; 2024 is shaping up as the year of capital raises by a handful of regionals to deal with the aftermath of the Fed’s ultra-low-rate environment.
2024 Mid-Year Market Update
2024 Mid-Year Market Update
After a period of underperformance due to earnings pressure from rising rates and falling margins, banks rallied strongly during the reporting of 2Q24 earnings.
Economic Pressure on Commercial Real Estate Sector
Economic Pressure on Commercial Real Estate Sector
CRE has long been a hot topic of conversation and CRE regulatory guidance to address elevated concentrations of CRE loans and help institutions manage risk accordingly was released all the way back in 2006.
Supreme Court Upholds Connelly
Supreme Court Upholds Connelly
The primary takeaway from Connelly is that life insurance received at the death of a shareholder is a corporate asset that adds to the value of the company for federal gift and estate tax purposes.
Supreme Court Upholds Connelly
Supreme Court Upholds Connelly
Life Insurance Proceeds and Redemption Obligations in Buy-Sell Agreements
SEC Fairness Opinion Requirement Has Not Slowed GP-Led Secondaries
SEC Fairness Opinion Requirement Has Not Slowed GP-Led Secondaries
Rising regulatory burdens contributed to the stunning growth in private equity the last two decades and private credit in recent years. PE investors ultimately require liquidity, however.Subdued M&A and IPO markets since mid-2022 have spurred growth for private equity secondaries, which mostly consists of GP-initiated transactions for continuation funds and LP-initiated transactions for portfolio interests.As shown in Figure 1, secondary transactions rose to $109 billion in 2023 from $102 billion in 2022 based upon data compiled by Lazard as volume soared 57% in 2H23 to $67 billion following depressed activity of about $43 billion in 2H22 and 1H23. Lazard expects secondary volume will improve further in 2024 and 2025 as the investor base for secondaries expands and buoyant markets support narrower bid-ask spreads. The need for LP liquidity also has driven the rise of NAV lending in which the GP arranges for a fund-level loan to fund distributions and/or acquisitions.Figure 1Lazard reports that LP secondaries of buyout funds realized ~88% of NAV whereas LPs realized only ~60% of NAV for interests in funds focused on early stage venture capital assuming NAV was not materially overestimated. LPs averaged 85% for interest in private credit funds, which is less than we would have guessed.LP investors can decide whether it makes sense to transact at a price that is less than NAV and thereby convey to the buyer additional return from investing in an illiquid asset. The LP investor will weigh the cost against the expected return from the current investment, the need for liquidity, and the opportunity to deploy the returned capital in new ventures.GP-led transactions for continuation funds create a corporate governance can of worms because the GP sits on both sides of the transaction as adviser to the fund that is selling an asset and as adviser to the fund that will buy it. LPs can choose liquidity on the terms offered, or they can roll their interest into the continuation fund. Whether a single asset or multi asset investment, presumably the GP is using a continuation vehicle because the exit price for an attractive asset is presently unattractive.The SEC addressed the issue through adopting Rule 211(h)(2)-2 in August 2023 which requires the GP adviser to: (a) obtain a fairness opinion or valuation from an independent valuation firm; and (b) disclose any material business relationships between the GP and opinion provider. Given the increase in GP-led secondaries to $31 billion in 2H23 from $17 billion in 1H23, the SEC governance requirement has not slowed the market.Although not mandated by law, fairness opinions for significant corporate transactions effectively have been required since 1985 when the Delaware Supreme Court ruled in Smith v. Van Gorkom, (Trans Union), (488 A. 2d Del. 1985) that directors were grossly negligent for approving a merger without sufficient inquiry. The Court suggested directors could have addressed their duty of care (informed decision making) by obtaining a fairness opinion.The SEC rule takes aim at the corporate duty of loyalty, which with the duty of care and good faith form the triad that underpins the Business Judgement Rule in which courts defer to the decision making of directors provided they have not violated one of their duties. As far as we know, there has been no widespread finger pointing that GP-led transactions have intentionally disadvantaged LPs. Nonetheless, the SEC rule is a regulatory means to address the issue of loyalty.Fairness opinions involve a review of a transaction from a financial point of view that considers value (as a range concept) and the process the board followed. Due diligence work is crucial to the development of the opinion because there is no bright line test that consideration to be received or paid is fair or not.Mercer Capital has over four decades of experience as an independent valuation and financial advisory firm in valuing illiquid equity and credit, assessing transactions and issuing fairness opinions. Please call if we can be of assistance in valuing your funds private equity and credit investments or evaluating a proposed GP-led transaction.Originally featured in Mercer Capital's Portfolio Valuation Newsletter: Summer 2025
FASB Provides Clarity on Accounting for Profits Interest Awards Under ASC 718
FASB Provides Clarity on Accounting for Profits Interest Awards Under ASC 718
FASB's issuance of ASU 2024-01 represents a significant step towards enhancing consistency and understanding in accounting for profits interest awards. Clearer guidance and the illustrative example will help entities can make more informed decisions regarding the treatment of these awards, ultimately benefiting stakeholders and investors alike.
Is It Time to Eat the Golden Goose?
Is It Time to Eat the Golden Goose?
Even if all the other boxes are checked, is selling the bank’s insurance agency that took 20 years to build the right long-term move? Maybe. Is it shortsighted to sell off the golden goose agency in the name of “balance sheet repositioning”? Maybe not. Every situation and every transaction is unique.
The Noncompete Agreement Is Dead, Long Live the Noncompete Agreement
The Noncompete Agreement Is Dead, Long Live the Noncompete Agreement
The FTC Wants to Ban Noncompete Agreements but They Will Likely Endure in Certain Circumstances
Now Could Be a Great Time for Bank Investors to Consider Estate Planning
Now Could Be a Great Time for Bank Investors to Consider Estate Planning
It may be an opportune time for bank investors to consider estate planning opportunities. Rising inflation has been top of mind for business owners and bankers (and everyone for that matter) over the last few years.While inflation has decelerated from its peak, business owners, bankers, and investors are adjusting to the new higher for longer interest rate environment.Higher inflation and interest rates have affected every business with few exceptions. All else equal, higher interest rates will negatively affect business value as higher discount rates are used to bring future cash flows to the present. In some industries though, inflation-driven increases in earnings or revenue growth expectations have offset (or even outweighed) the negative impact of higher interest rates.However, not all industries have been immune to pressure from higher interest rates and inflation on the value of their shares. Banking is one of several industries that have underperformed broader market indices as investors remain skeptical of the “new normal” and impact of the rate environment on banks’ cost of funds and net interest margins.As shown in the following tables, small and mid cap public bank stocks have underperformed broad market indices, and valuation multiples (as measured by P/E and P/TBV) remain below long-term historical averages.While it remains uncertain when the interest rate easing cycle will begin, the easing cycle will likely also have divergent outcomes for different industries. At this point between cycles and with bank valuation multiples below long-term averages, it is important to consider the potential opportunity to favorably transfer business value to future generations.A second reason to consider estate planning transactions in the current environment is issues on the tax and policy front.The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act enacted in December 2017 doubled the basic exclusion amounts individuals could give away without paying estate taxes. The sunsetting of this provision on December 31, 2025 and the potential for lower exclusion amounts thereafter and higher estate taxes, makes considering transfers all the more important.The combination of lower bank stock valuations combined with sunsetting favorable estate tax provisions make 2024 a worthwhile year for bank investors to consider estate planning strategies.Many strategies will require a current valuation of your bank, and our professionals are here to help.Originally appeared in the April 2024 issue of Bank Watch.
What to Look for in a Quality of Earnings Provider
What to Look for in a Quality of Earnings Provider
The cost of corporate M&A failures is high for both buyers and sellers. In this article, we discuss four things buyers and sellers should look for when evaluating potential QofE providers.
2024: Five Trends to Watch in the Medical Device Industry
2024: Five Trends to Watch in the Medical Device Industry
Medical Devices OverviewThe medical device manufacturing industry produces equipment designed to diagnose and treat patients within global healthcare systems.Medical devices range from simple tongue depressors and bandages to complex programmable pacemakers and sophisticated imaging systems.Major product categories include surgical implants and instruments, medical supplies, electro-medical equipment, in-vitro diagnostic equipment and reagents, irradiation apparatuses, and dental goods.The following outlines five structural factors and trends that influence demand and supply of medical devices and related procedures.1. DemographicsThe aging population, driven by declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, represents a major demand driver for medical devices.The U.S. elderly population (persons aged 65 and above) totaled 60 million in 2023 (18% of the population).The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the elderly will number 92.7 million by 2065, representing more than 25% of the total population.U.S. Population Distribution by Age GroupThe elderly account for nearly one third of total.Personal healthcare spending for the population segment was approximately $22,000 per person in 2020, 5.5 times the spending per child (about $4,000) and more than double the spending per working-age person (about $9,000).U.S. Population Distribution by AgeU.S. Healthcare Expenditure by AgeSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics GroupAccording to United Nations projections, the global elderly population will rise from approximately 808 million (10% of world population) in 2022 to 2.0 billion (19.4% of world population) in 2065.Europe’s elderly made up 20% of the total population in 2022, and the proportion is projected to reach 31% by 2065, making it the world’s oldest region.Latin American and the Caribbean is currently one of the youngest regions in the world, with its elderly at 9% of the total population in 2022, but this region is expected to undergo drastic transformations over the next several decades, with the elderly population expected to expand to 25% of the total population by 2065.North America has an above-average elderly population as of 2022 (17%) and is projected to expand to 27% by 2065.World Population 65 and Over (% of Total)Click here to expand the image above2. Healthcare Spending and the Legislative Landscape in the U.S.Demographic shifts underlie the expected growth in total U.S. healthcare expenditure from $4.4 trillion in 2022 to $7.2 trillion in 2031, an average annual growth rate of 5.5%.This projected average annual growth rate is slightly higher than the observed rate of 5.1% between 2013 and 2021, suggesting some acceleration in expected spending. Projected growth in annual spending for Medicare (7.5%) and Medicaid (5.0%) is expected to contribute substantially to the increase in national health expenditure over the coming decade.Growth in national healthcare spending, after significant growth in 2020 of 10.2%, slowed to 2.7% in 2021. Healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase from 18.3% in 2021 to 19.6% by 2031.Since inception, Medicare has accounted for an increasing proportion of total U.S. healthcare expenditures.Medicare currently provides healthcare benefits for an estimated 65 million elderly and disabled people, constituting approximately 10% of the federal budget in 2021.Spending growth is expected to average 7.8% from 2025 to 2031.The program represents the largest portion of total healthcare costs, constituting 21% of total health spending in 2021 and 10% of the federal budget.Medicare accounts for 26% of spending on hospital care, 26% of physician and clinical services, and 32% of retail prescription drugs sales.U.S. Healthcare Consumption Payor Mix and as % of GDPAverage Spending Growth Rates, Medicare and Private Health InsuranceDue to the growing influence of Medicare in aggregate healthcare consumption, legislative developments can have a potentially outsized effect on the demand and pricing for medical products and services. Medicare spending totaled $944.3 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2031.The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) was signed into law on August 16, 2022 by the Biden administration.Among other items, the IRA aims to lower prescription drug costs and improve access to prescription drugs for Medicare enrollees.Two healthcare spending-related items in the IRA include out-of-pocket caps for insulin products (capped at $35 for each monthly subscription under Part D and Part B) and a $2,000 out-of-pocket annual spending cap for drugs under Medicare Part D.These provisions could have significant effects on the growth rates for out-of-pocket spending for prescription drugs, which are projected to decline by 5.9% and 4.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.3. Third-Party Coverage and ReimbursementThe primary customers of medical device companies are physicians (and/or product approval committees at their hospitals), who select the appropriate equipment for consumers (patients).In most developed economies, the consumers themselves are one step (or more) removed from interactions with manufacturers, and, therefore, pricing of medical devices.Device manufacturers ultimately receive payments from insurers, who usually reimburse healthcare providers for routine procedures (rather than for specific components like the devices used).Accordingly, medical device purchasing decisions tend to be largely disconnected from price. Third-party payors (both private and government programs) are keen to reevaluate their payment policies to constrain rising healthcare costs.Hospitals are the largest market for medical devices.Lower reimbursement growth will likely persuade hospitals to scrutinize medical purchases by adopting 1) higher standards to evaluate the benefits of new procedures and devices, and 2) a more disciplined price bargaining stance.The transition of the healthcare delivery paradigm from fee-for-service (FFS) to value models is expected to lead to fewer hospital admissions and procedures, given the focus on cost-cutting and efficiency.In 2015, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced goals to have 85% and 90% of all Medicare payments tied to quality or value by 2016 and 2018, respectively, and 30% and 50% of total Medicare payments tied to alternative payment models (APM) by the end of 2016 and 2018, respectively.A report issued by the Health Care Payment Learning & Action Network (LAN), a public-private partnership launched in March 2015 by HHS, found that 48.9% of (traditional) Medicare payments were tied to Category 3 and 4 APMs in 2022, compared to 40% in 2021 and 35.8% in 2018.In 2020, CMS released guidance for states on how to advance value-based care across their healthcare systems, emphasizing Medicaid populations, and to share pathways for adoption of such approaches.CMS states that value-based care advances health equity by putting focus on health outcomes of every person, encouraging health providers to screen for social needs, requiring health professionals to monitor and track outcomes across populations, and engaging with providers who have historically worked in underserved communities. Ultimately, lower reimbursement rates and reduced procedure volume will likely limit pricing gains for medical devices and equipment.The medical device industry faces similar reimbursement issues globally, as the EU and other jurisdictions face similar increasing healthcare costs.A number of countries have instituted price ceilings on certain medical procedures, which could deflate the reimbursement rates of third-party payors, forcing down product prices.Industry participants are required to report manufacturing costs, and medical device reimbursement rates are set potentially below those figures in certain major markets like Germany, France, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, China, and Brazil.Whether third-party payors consider certain devices medically reasonable or necessary for operations presents a hurdle that device makers and manufacturers must overcome in bringing their devices to market.4. Competitive Factors and Regulatory RegimeHistorically, much of the growth of medical technology companies has been predicated on continual product innovations that make devices easier for doctors to use and improve health outcomes for the patients.Successful product development usually requires significant R&D outlays and a measure of luck.If viable, new devices can elevate average selling prices, market penetration, and market share.Government regulations curb competition in two ways to foster an environment where firms may realize an acceptable level of returns on their R&D investments.First, firms that are first to the market with a new product can benefit from patents and intellectual property protection giving them a competitive advantage for a finite period.Second, regulations govern medical device design and development, preclinical and clinical testing, premarket clearance or approval, registration and listing, manufacturing, labeling, storage, advertising and promotions, sales and distribution, export and import, and post market surveillance.Regulatory Overview in the U.S.In the U.S., the FDA generally oversees the implementation of the second set of regulations.Some relatively simple devices deemed to pose low risk are exempt from the FDA’s clearance requirement and can be marketed in the U.S. without prior authorization.For the remaining devices, commercial distribution requires marketing authorization from the FDA, which comes in primarily two flavors.The premarket notification (“510(k) clearance”) process requires the manufacturer to demonstrate that a device is “substantially equivalent” to an existing device (“predicate device”) that is legally marketed in the U.S.The 510(k) clearance process may occasionally require clinical data and generally takes between 90 days and one year for completion.In November 2018, the FDA announced plans to change elements of the 510(k) clearance process.Specifically, the FDA plan includes measures to encourage device manufacturers to use predicate devices that have been on the market for no more than 10 years.In early 2019, the FDA announced an alternative 510(k) program to allow medical devices an easier approval process for manufacturers of certain “well-understood device types” to demonstrate substantial equivalence through objective safety and performance criteria. In February 2020, the FDA launched its voluntary pilot program: electronic Submission Template and Resource (eSTAR) as an interactive submission template that may be used by the medical device submitters to prepare certain pre-market submissions for a device.Starting in October 2023, all 510(k) submissions were required to be submitted using eSTAR unless exempted.The premarket approval (“PMA”) process is more stringent, time-consuming, and expensive.A PMA application must be supported by valid scientific evidence, which typically entails collection of extensive technical, preclinical, clinical, and manufacturing data.Once the PMA is submitted and found to be complete, the FDA begins an in-depth review, which is required by statute to take no longer than 180 days.However, the process typically takes significantly longer and may require several years to complete.Pursuant to the Medical Device User Fee Modernization Act (MDUFA), the FDA collects user fees for the review of devices for marketing clearance or approval.The current iteration of the Medical Device User Fee Act (MDUFA V) came into effect in October 2022.Under MDUFA V, the FDA is authorized to collect $1.8 billion in user fee revenue for the five-year cycle, an increase from the approximately $1 billion in user fees under MDUFA IV, between 2017 and 2022.A significant change from MDUFA IV to MDUFA V relates to performance goals for De Novo Classification requests (requests for novel medical devices for which general controls alone provide reasonable assurance of safety and effectiveness for the intended use). There has also been updated PMA guidance, with the FDA conducting substantive reviews within 90 calendar days for all original PMAs, panel-track supplements, and 180-day supplements.Regulatory Overview Outside the U.S.The European Union (EU), along with countries such as Japan, Canada, and Australia all operate strict regulatory regimes similar to that of the FDA, and international consensus is moving towards more stringent regulations.Stricter regulations for new devices may slow release dates and may negatively affect companies within the industry.Medical device manufacturers face a single regulatory body across the European Union: Regulation (EU 2017/745), also known as the European Union Medical Device Regulation (EU MDR).The regulation was published in 2017, replacing the medical device directives regulation that was in place since the 1990s.The requirements of the MDR became applicable to all medical devices sold in the EU as of May 26, 2021.The EU is the second largest market for medical devices in the world with approximately €150 billion in sales in 2022, only behind the United States. The EU MDR has introduced stricter requirements for medical device manufacturers, including increased clinical evidence and post-market surveillance. Consequently, there is an increased risk for longer approval processes and delays in manufacturing of these devices.5. Emerging Global MarketsEmerging economies are claiming a growing share of global healthcare consumption, including medical devices and related procedures, owing to relative economic prosperity, growing medical awareness, and increasing (and increasingly aging) populations.According to the WHO, middle income countries, such as China, Turkey, and Peru, among others, are rapidly converging towards outsized levels of spending as their income scales.When countries grow richer, the demand for health care increases along with people’s expectation for government-financed healthcare.Upper-middle income countries accounted for 16.6% of total global healthcare spending in 2021, up from 8.2% in 2000.As global health expenditure continues to increase, sales to countries outside the U.S. represent a potential avenue for growth for domestic medical device companies.According to the World Bank, all regions (except Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia) have seen an increase in healthcare spending as a percentage of total output over the last two decades.World Health Expenditure as a % of GDPGlobal medical device sales are estimated to increase 5.9% annually from 2023 to 2030, reaching nearly $800 billion according to data from Fortune Business Insights.While the Americas are projected to remain the world’s largest medical device market, the Asia Pacific market is expected to expand at a relatively quicker pace over the next several years.SummaryDemographic shifts underlie the long-term market opportunity for medical device manufacturers.While efforts to control costs on the part of the government insurer in the U.S. may limit future pricing growth for incumbent products, a growing global market provides domestic device manufacturers with an opportunity to broaden and diversify their geographic revenue base.Developing new products and procedures is risky and usually more resource intensive compared to some other growth sectors of the economy.However, barriers to entry in the form of existing regulations provide a measure of relief from competition, especially for newly developed products.Post-Script – 2024 OutlookThe medical device industry looked to have put the effects of COVID-19 behind by 2023.A large number of elective procedures were deferred in the early part of the pandemic and a measure of catch-up in procedure volumes was reported in subsequent periods.Back to focusing on the longer-term demographic and other trends?Well, maybe not quite so fast.It was always likely that the pandemic-induced disruptions would linger just a bit longer, creating some uncertainty around consumers’ needs and preferences.But the industry awakened to a different type of potential disruption in mid-2023.Would GLP-1 drugs alter long-term demographic trends by reducing massive obesity rates?And would the industry face widespread lower demand for bariatric surgery devices, glucose monitors, cardiovascular devices, orthopedic implants and other equiptment?A mid-year swoon in medtech stock prices was attributed, at least by some, to the wonder drugs.As 2023 came to a close, however, many appear to have reversed course from that early response.We may or may not get more clarity on the longer-term effects of these treatments in 2024 but, surely, they will also bring opportunities to go along with potential challenges for device makers.Taking a broader view, some trends from recent periods will likely persist in 2024.Companies will continue to focus on profitability and profitable growth in a (relatively) higher-interest rate environment.Some observers suggest that an expected but measured decline in rates over 2024 (if it materializes) may not do much for medtech stock prices, further underscoring the need to shore up margins.On the flip side, since the period of rapid interest rate increases appears to be behind us, transaction volume should pick up from the low levels of the past two years.Finally, innovation, as always, will continue to be part of the conversation as novel treatments that serve unmet needs will help to unlock new markets.2024 Outlook reading list:What To Expect From Medtech In 2024 (McKinsey & Company)5 Medtech Trends To Watch In 2024 (MedtechDive)2024 Outlook For Life Sciences: GenAI, Drug Prices, Economy Likely To Influence Strategy (Deloitte)
NYCB Incurs Heavy Dilution in Its $1.0 Billion Capital Raise
NYCB Incurs Heavy Dilution in Its $1.0 Billion Capital Raise
The other significant industry news from the first quarter was the $1.05 billion equity investment in New York Community Bank (NYSE: NYCB) by an investor group led by former Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin. The investment was necessary to boost loss absorbing capital and to shore up confidence to stem a possible deposit run after its share price collapsed during February following a surprise fourth quarter loss that was later revised higher for a $2.4 billion goodwill write-off.The initially reported 4Q23 loss of $252 million was not catastrophic, especially considering the company reported net income of $2.4 billion excluding the goodwill write-off as a result of the bargain gain from the purchase of the failed Signature Bank; however, the fourth quarter loss that arose from a $538 million provision for loan losses highlighted investor concerns about NYCB’s sizable exposure to NYC rent-controlled apartments and offices.The figure on the right presents our proforma analysis of the transaction and its impact on the consolidated company (NYCB), the parent company in which the group invested, and wholly owned Flagstar Bank, N.A. The adage that capital is exorbitantly expensive if available at all when it must be raised comes to mind here with NYCB.Source: Mercer Capital, NYCB SEC filings, and S&P Global Market IntelligenceWe note the following:The investor group paid $1.05 billion for 525 million common share equivalents consisting of 59.8 million common shares for $2.00 per share and $930 million of Series B and C preferred stock with a 13% dividend that is convertible into 465 million common shares at $2.00 per share.Tangible book value per share (“TBVPS”) declined by about one-third from $10.03 per share as of year-end 2023 to $6.65 per share on a proforma basis.Inclusive of 315 million seven-year warrants with a $2.50 per share strike price, diluted proforma TBVPS is ~$5.80 per share.The 525 million common shares represent ~40% of the 1.25 billion proforma shares while dilution to existing shareholders exceeds 50% inclusive of the warrants.The capital injection boosted the Company’s consolidated leverage ratio by ~80bps to 8.6% and total risk-based capital ratio by ~120bps to 13.0%.NYCB will generate ~$1.4 billion of pretax, pre-provision operating income in 2024 and 2025 based upon consensus analyst estimates that will supplement the new capital to absorb loan losses.Given NYCB’s shares are trading around 50% to 60% of proforma TBVPS, investors are questioning the magnitude of loan losses to be recognized; whether more capital will be required; and long-term earning power.Our additional thoughts on the transaction can be found HERE, and a link to NYCB’s investor deck announcing the transaction can be found HERE.If we can assist your board with a capital raise or other significant transaction, please call us.Originally appeared in the March 2024 issue of Bank Watch.
Capital One Financial Corporation to Acquire Discover Financial Services
Capital One Financial Corporation to Acquire Discover Financial Services
The four major credit card networks are American Express, Discover, Mastercard, and Visa.In 2023, Discover had only 2.1% of the total market share in the U.S. based on the value of transactions, compared to Visa’s 61.1% market share and Mastercard’s 25.4% market share.1 Prior to its acquisition of Discover, Capital One partnered with both Visa and Mastercard for issuing their credit cards.So, why would Capital One pay $35.3 billion to acquire Discover’s 2.1% market share?Discover Financial Services operates as both a credit card issuer and credit card network.By owning its own credit card network, Discover is not partnered with any payment processors (Visa, Mastercard, etc.) and avoids “swipe fees” that payment processors collect. Therefore, one of Capital One’s primary objectives in acquiring Discover is to move its credit and debit cards onto Discover’s network over time and reduce its purchase volume on the Visa and Mastercard networks.The two companies entered into a definitive agreement on February 19, 2024, in which Capital One Financial Corporation agreed to acquire Discover Financial Services in an all-stock transaction valued at $35.3 billion.The deal represents a 26.6% premium to Discover’s closing price of $110.49 (2/26/24) as Discover shareholders will receive 1.0192 Capital One shares for each Discover share.More details on the transaction as well as the companies’ financials as of fiscal 2023 are displayed on the right.Summary of Transaction AnalysisFinancial ComparisonPreparing for the FutureAs technology continues to advance, both traditional, tech-heavy banks and Fintech companies have increased competition in the global payments industry.If the acquisition is approved, Capital One will surpass JPMorgan as the largest credit card company based on loan volume and become the third largest company based on purchase volume. With increased volume and market share, Capital One would be better prepared to compete against these other banks and Fintech companies. Richard Fairbank, the CEO of Capital One, strives to deal directly with merchants by owning his own payments network. This rare asset allows Capital One to create a closed loop between consumers and merchants, which better positions the company to deal with increasing threats from buy-now, pay-later companies (Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna, etc.).Both Capital One and Discover customers may have a lot to look forward to in the future should the deal be approved.Capital One intends to move 25 million cardholders onto the Discover network by 2027 and offer more attractive rewards for both debit and credit cardholders. The proposed merger would expand both issuers’ physical presence, and Discover customers would gain access to physical bank locations.Capital One will also leverage its international presence to increase accessibility and convenience for Discover cardholders on an international scale.In terms of credit and debit rewards, the increased competition in the industry is expected to drive companies to bolster their rewards program to seem more attractive to consumers.Regulatory HurdlesThe proposed deal between Capital One and Discover is expected to close by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. However, the completion of the deal could depend on the results of the presidential election. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Josh Hawley have both expressed interest in blocking the deal as they believe the deal will create a “juggernaut” in the industry and lead to the extortion of American consumers. The Biden administration is more likely to block the deal or implement limitations and requirements in order for it to be executed.On the other hand, the proposed deal could stop legislation that threatens credit card rewards. Congress is considering new legislation known as the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA).The purpose of this legislation is to reduce the swipe fees paid by merchants by enabling access to a wider range of payment networks. If the legislation is approved, credit card networks and issuers would face reduced transaction fees causing issuers to potentially reduce the wide range of rewards offered. However, the primary objective of the CCCA could be accomplished through the proposed merger, as routing Capital One’s purchase volume through Discover’s payment network would create a more viable competitor to the Visa/Mastercard duopoly.ConclusionMercer Capital has roughly 40 years of experience in assessing mergers, the investment merits of the buyer’s shares, and providing valuations of financial institutions. If you are considering acquisition opportunities or have questions regarding the valuation of your financial institution, please contact us. 1 Statista.com; Market share of Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Discover as general purpose card brands in the United States from 2007 to 2023, based on value of transactionsOriginally appeared in the March 2024 issue of Bank Watch.
Potential Impact of Baltimore Bridge Collapse on the Logistics Industry
Potential Impact of Baltimore Bridge Collapse on the Logistics Industry
It’s been hard to miss the news footage and video of the cargo ship Dali colliding with the Francis Scott Key Bridge across the Chesapeake Bay. The bridge collapse – as sudden as it is surprising – is another landmark in what has been a series of tumultuous years in the logistics industry. We recently wrote about global impacts on the supply chain, particularly East Coast ports, and this is another reminder about how unpredictable events can have a wide reach.The Port of BaltimoreThe Port of Baltimore is in the top twenty ports by volume in the United States and is the 5th largest port for foreign trade on the East Coast. TheWashington Postestimates that the port handled over 50 million tons of foreign cargo with value in excess of $80 billion during 2023. The port is the 2nd largest exporter of coal from the U.S. (though still a relatively small player on a global scale) and is the largest port for imports of automobiles, sugar, and gypsum. Baltimore is also equipped to handle Neo Panamax ships passing through the Panama Canal.Sharing the fortunes of several other East Coast ports of the last several years, the Port of Baltimore posted several records in 2023, including for the largest number of TEUs handled (1.1 million) and general cargo tons (11.7 million). Baltimore posts these growth records despite the overall decline in imports to the U.S. during 2022.Potential Short-Term and Long-Term ImpactShort term impacts will include delays of cargo already in transit for East Coast ports, whether originally bound for Baltimore or not. Just as we saw chokepoints on the West Coast lead to a redistribution of cargo among ports, the loss of the Baltimore port for the foreseeable future will cause ripple effects throughout the industry.Source: The Washington Post Other East Coast ports will likely take up the bulk of cargo previously destined for Baltimore. In particular, soybean shipments are expected to transfer to Norfolk, Savannah, and Charleston, while containers are expected to be processed in either Philadelphia or Norfolk. In any case, the truck routes and rail cars that previously serviced Baltimore will need to be recentered on other ports. However, this will be somewhat mitigated by global events that were already impacting East Coast ports—namely, the ongoing drought limiting capacity through the Panama Canal and the Houthi rocket attacks in the Red Sea, both of which had diverted some cargo away from East Coast ports prior to the bridge collapse. An additional concern is the International Longshoreman’s Association contract, which covers port workers from Texas through the Northeast. The contract is set to expire in September 2024. Talks stalled in early 2023 before resuming again in February 2024. The West Coast freight bottleneck that dominated transportation headlines in 2022 was brought on by labor disputes combined with a drastic increase in demand for shipping services due to COVID-fueled shopping. Conversely, the national freight market has been soft through 2023 and demand is not expected to rapidly escalate as it did a few years ago. This should limit long-term bottlenecks and chokepoints from forming on the East Coast.ConclusionMercer Capital’s Transportation & Logistics team constantly watches the transportation industry and global events and economic factors that can impact the overall industry, the supply chain, or various aspects of transportation.Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services, and our transportation and logistics team helps trucking companies, brokerages, freight forwarders, and other supply chain operators to understand the value of their business. Contact a member of the Mercer Capital transportation and logistics team today to learn more about the value of your logistics company.
5 Reasons Sellers Need a Quality of Earnings Report
5 Reasons Sellers Need a Quality of Earnings Report
M&A deal flow was sidelined for much of 2022 and 2023, but the economy’s soft landing, stabilizing interest rates, and pent-up M&A demand are expected to compel buyers and sellers to renew their efforts in 2024 and beyond.As deal activity recovers, sellers need to be prepared to present their value proposition in a compelling manner. For many sellers, an independent Quality of Earnings (“QofE”) analysis and report are vital to advancing and defending their asset’s value in the marketplace. And it can be critical to the ensuing due diligence processes buyers apply to targets.The scope of a QofE engagement can be tailored to the needs of the seller. Functionally, a QofE provider examines and assesses the relevant historical and prospective performance of a business. The process can encompass both the financial and operational attributes of the business.In this article, we review five reasons sellers benefit from a QofE report when responding to an acquisition offer or preparing to take their businesses to market.1. Maximize value by revealing adjusted and future sustainable profitability.Sellers should leave no stone unturned when it comes to identifying the maximum achievable cash flow and profitability of their businesses. Every dollar affirmed brings value to sellers at the market multiple. Few investments yield as handsomely and as quickly as a thorough QofE report. A lack of preparation or confused responses to a buyer’s due diligence will assuredly compromise the outcome of a transaction. The QofE process includes examining the relevant historical period (say two or three years) to adjust for discretionary and non-recurring income and expense events, as well as depicting the future (pro forma) financial potential from the perspective of likely buyers. The QofE process addresses the questions of why, when, and how future cash flow can benefit sellers and buyers. Sellers need this vital information for clear decision-making, fostering transparency, and instilling trust and credibility with their prospective buyers.2. Promote command and control of transaction negotiations and deal terms.Sellers who understand their objective historical performance and future prospects are better prepared to communicate and achieve their expectations during the transaction process. A robust QofE analysis can filter out bottom-dwelling opportunists while establishing the readiness of the seller to engage in efficient, meaningful negotiations on pricing and terms with qualified buyers. After core pricing is determined, other features of the transaction, such as working capital, frameworks for roll-over ownership, thresholds for contingent consideration, and other important deal parameters, are established. These seemingly lower-priority details can have a meaningful effect on closing cash and escrow requirements. The QofE process assists sellers and their advisors in building the high road and keeping the deal within its guardrails.3. Cover the bases for board members, owners, and the advisory team and optimize their ability to contribute to the best outcome.The financial and fiduciary risk of being underinformed in the transaction process is difficult to overcome and can have real consequences. Businesses can be lovingly nurtured with operating excellence, sometimes over generations of ownership, only to suffer from a lack of preparation, underperformance from stakeholders who lack transactional expertise, and underrepresentation when it most matters. The QofE process is like training camp for athletes — it measures in realistic terms what the numbers and the key metrics are and helps sellers amplify strengths and mitigate weaknesses. Without proper preparation, sellers can falter when countering an offer, placing the optimal outcome at risk. In short, a QofE report helps position the seller’s board members, managers, and external advisors to achieve the best outcome for shareholders.4. Financial statements and tax returns are insufficient for sophisticated buyers.Time and timing matter. A QofE report improves the efficiency of the transaction process for buyers and sellers. It provides a transparent platform for defining and addressing significant reporting and compliance issues. There is no better way to build a data set for all advisors and prospective buyers than the process of a properly administered QofE engagement. This can be particularly important for sellers whose level of financial reporting has been lacking, changing, outmoded due to growth, or contains intricacies that are easily misunderstood.For sellers content to work their own deals with their neighbors and friendly rivals, a QofE engagement can provide some of the disciplines and organization typically delivered by a side-side representative. While we hesitate to promote a DIY process in this increasingly complicated world, a QofE process can touch on many of the points that are required to negotiate a deal. Sellers who are busy running their businesses rarely have the turnkey skills to conduct an optimum exit process. A QofE engagement can be a powerful supporting tool.5. In one form or another, buyers are going to conduct a QofE process – what about sellers?Buyers are remarkably efficient at finding cracks in the financial facades of targets. Most QofE work is performed as part of the buy-side due diligence process and is often used by buyers to adjust their offering price (post-LOI) and design their terms. It is also used to facilitate their financing and satisfy the scrutiny of underlying financial and strategic investors. In the increasing arms race of the transaction environment, sellers need to equip themselves with a counteroffensive tool to stake their claim and defend their ground. If a buyer’s LOI is “non-binding” and subject to change upon the completion of due diligence, sellers need to equip themselves with information to advance and hold their position.ConclusionThe stakes are high in the transaction arena. Whether embarking on a sale process or responding to an unsolicited inquiry, sellers have precious few opportunities to set the tone. A QofE process equips sellers with the confidence of understanding their own position while engaging the buy-side with awareness and transparency that promotes a more efficient negotiating process and the best opportunity for a favorable outcome. If you are considering a sale, give one of our senior professionals a call to discuss how our QofE team can help maximize your results.WHITEPAPERQuality of Earnings AnalysisDownload Whitepaper For buyers and sellers, the stakes in a transaction are high. A QofE report is an essential step in getting the transaction right.
Worldwide Impacts on Marine Shipping – Q4 2023
Worldwide Impacts on Marine Shipping – Q4 2023
We discussed reshoring and nearshoring trends a bit in the last Value Focus Transportation and Logistics newsletter.There’s been some developments on that front, especially as it relates to the ongoing battle between East Coast and West Coast ports.As we mentioned last time, a variety of pandemic-related and regulatory issues resulted in long delays at California ports, the traditional import location for the majority of goods from East Asia.Many carriers shifted their import handling to East Coast ports – with the port of Savannah being one of the biggest winners.Georgia has posted three straight record–setting years for exports. A study by Cushman Wakefield that ran through October 2023 shows that volumes at East Gulf Ports exceeded West Coast volumes for the majority of 2022 and 2023.However, early results indicate the West Coast ports grew faster than East Coast ports in November and December 2023, and there are a couple of reasons behind that.(click here to expand the image above)The El Niño weather event has hit the Panama Canal hard.Under normal conditions, between 36 and 38 ships per day will make the transit.Due to the worst droughtPanama has experienced in over 70 years, the Canal Authority began reducing the number of ships passing through on a daily basis in July 2023.In February 2024, the Canal Authority reduced the total number of ships to 18 per day.Meanwhile, approaching from the other direction has been made harder by attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.About one-fifth of freight reaching East Cost ports travels through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.Shippers continuing to use the Suez canal route will face higher insurance charges, while shippers opting to go around the Cape of Good Hope can expect to add at least a week to transit times.More recently, the first fully sunk ship from the conflict also disrupted underwater data cables.So far, analysts have had mixed opinions on the overall impact that will arise from the Houthi attacks.Between Red Sea disruptions and climate issues in Latin America the impact of worldwide current events on marine logistics cannot be ignored.
Themes From the 2024 Acquire or Be Acquired Conference
Themes From the 2024 Acquire or Be Acquired Conference
For those who haven’t been to Bank Director’s Acquire or Be Acquired conference (AOBA) before, it is a two-and-a-half-day conference in the desert (Phoenix) that typically includes great weather, golf at the end, and has broadened over the years to focus on a combination of M&A, growth, and FinTech strategies.Cautious OptimismWhile the 2024 version of AOBA included a number of discussions around headwinds facing the sector, there was optimism for 2024 when compared to 2023.For example, the banking audience was asked during the conference: How do you feel about 2024 compared to your experience in 2023?~90% responded that they felt more optimistic about 2024 when compared to 2023. Additionally, several sessions noted that optimism exists for an uptick in deal activity in the second half of 2024.Traditional Bank M&A Tailwinds and HeadwindsWhile the turbulence and potential headwinds for bank M&A that slowed deal activity in 2023 continue to persist at the outset of 2024, traditional bank M&A remained a much discussed topic at the 2024 AOBA conference. Discussions focused on the nuts and bolts of M&A from valuation to due diligence to structuring and ultimately to integration. While certain themes change and evolve, the strategy to achieve greater scale and growth through M&A and to enhance efficiency and profitability that create value over the long run, persist. The challenging M&A landscape could present an opportunity for acquirers with the balance sheet and capacity to engage in a transaction, and the silver lining for those acquirers may be less competition for sellers as some buyers focus internally during the challenging operating environment.Balance Sheets in FocusThere were definitely more sessions this year discussing balance sheets. A number of sessions noted that one key to dealmaking in the current environment was managing the balance sheet, and several discussed the impact of fair value marks on sellers and pro forma combined balance sheets and the impact on deal activity. For acquirers, a strong balance sheet and capital level can position their institution to be able to take advantage of the current deal environment. For sellers, having a balance sheet that is less impacted from the fair value marks to loans and bonds and with more valuable deposits enhances their attractiveness to potential acquirers.In one session, my colleagues Jeff Davis and Andy Gibbs discussed the impact of taking a loss today on low-coupon bonds that are worth less than the current market price versus holding the bonds to maturity on the value of a bank’s equity. They also reviewed an intermediate strategy referred to as the installment method.Deposits, Deposits, DepositsConsistent with discussions around the balance sheet, the interest rate environment, and impact on the banking industry & M&A, discussions about deposits came up often.These discussions covered strategies to retain business or consumer deposits, the attractiveness of core deposits for acquirers in the current environment, how to grow deposits organically (some of the largest banks are even turning back the clock and building branches again), trends in core deposit intangible valuations, and how to provide your customers with the technology and digital banking solutions to onboard and retain deposits more efficiently. One question discussed in several sessions that will be interesting to see the answer to in 2024 was: Has the cost of funds peaked?Technology Brings OpportunitiesOver the last few years, technology has been an increasing topic discussed during sessions of AOBA. Technology topics discussed included leveraging payments to enhance retail and small business banking, using software and/or digital banking to more efficiently make loans and/or open deposit accounts and best practice for developing and managing risk of FinTech partnerships. Even AI, the market’s favorite topic of 2024, was discussed. A consensus on how best to leverage AI in banking has not yet emerged in my view but topics discussed included leveraging AI to enhance loan growth or efficiency of common tasks in the back office. Traditional M&A has historically focused on the potential diversification benefits of combining loan portfolios, deposit portfolios, and geographic footprints but increasingly the tech stacks of buyers and sellers are being compared to see what diversification benefits exist and what the cost may be to combine the tech stack after closing.Technology Also Brings Potential RisksOne challenging aspect of technology for banks was how best to balance the potential benefits of technology with the risks inherent in them, particularly new technologies and FinTech partnerships. Tech-forward banks and their valuations were also discussed. As we have noted in the past, this tech-forward bank group has seen increased volatility in market performance than their peers as the market digests some of the tech-oriented business models (such as banking-as-a-service) and weighs the potential for higher growth and profitability against the potential risk of these business models and regulatory scrutiny.Non-Traditional DealsSimilar to traditional bank deals, bank acquisitions in non-traditional areas like specialty finance, insurance, and asset management have been modest and challenging given the difficult operating environment, higher cost of debt, and opportunity cost of excess liquidity. However, there were some discussions around best practices and lessons learned from specialty finance transactions and that additional opportunities may emerge as non-bank lenders also deal with the challenging funding and interest rate environment. Additionally, Truist recently announced the sale of its insurance business to book a gain, focus on core banking, and enhance capital. The announced bank acquisitions by credit unions and private investors also illustrate that non-traditional deals remain a part of a bank’s strategic playbook.ConclusionWe look forward to discussing these issues with clients in 2024 and monitoring how they evolve within the banking industry over the next year. As always, Mercer Capital is available to discuss these trends as they relate to your financial institution, so feel free to call or email.Originally appeared in the February 2024 issue of Bank Watch.
Pay Versus Performance: What’s New in Year 2?
Pay Versus Performance: What’s New in Year 2?
The complexity of implementing the Pay Versus Performance rules in Year 2 will vary by firm.
Observations from a Buy-Sell Agreement Gone Bad
Observations from a Buy-Sell Agreement Gone Bad

How to Increase the Value of a Non-Controlling Interest in a Closely Held Business by 338% with No Money Down

A Matter of Life (Insurance) and DeathA buy-sell agreement among family shareholders should provide clear instructions for how the company’s stock is to be valued upon the occurrence of a triggering event, such as the departure or death of a shareholder. The United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit recently heard Thomas A. Connelly, in his Capacity as Executor of the Estate of Michael P. Connelly, Sr., Plaintiff-Appellant v. United States of America, Department of Treasury, Internal Revenue Service, Defendant-Appellee. The Eighth Circuit court affirmed a district court decision that concluded that life insurance proceeds received by a company triggered by a shareholder’s death should be included in the valuation of the company for estate tax purposes.[1]Connelly is an estate tax deficiency case dominated by two themes: (i) the treatment of life insurance in the valuation of stock of a private company when a shareholder dies and (ii) the consequences of executing a buy-sell agreement that fails to meet the requirements under the Internal Revenue Code, Treasury regulations, and applicable case law, for purposes of controlling the valuation of a closely held company.[2] Using Connelly as a backdrop, we first demonstrate how opposing applications of life insurance proceeds received upon the death of a shareholder impact a company valuation. We then offer observations from a study of the Connelly buy-sell agreement from a valuation perspective that private business owners and their advisors should mind when drafting, reviewing, and amending buy-sell agreements.The Stock Purchase AgreementCrown C Supply Company, Inc. is a roofing and siding materials company founded in 1976 and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.[3] Crown C (an S corporation) and brothers Michael, Thomas, and Mark Connelly originally entered into a stock purchase agreement (“SPA”) on January 1, 1983. Mark’s interest in Crown C was terminated prior to the stock purchase agreement being amended and restated on August 29, 2001.[4] Crown C had 500 shares of common stock at the date of the SPA’s execution. Michael, via a trust, owned 385.9 shares of Crown C stock representing a 77.18% ownership interest. Thomas, individually, owned the remaining 114.1 shares representing a 22.82% ownership interest.Pursuant to the terms of the SPA, Michael and Thomas executed a certificate of agreed value that set the purchase price of Crown C’s stock upon a triggering event at $10,000 per share (see graphic below). Based on this purchase price per share, which disregarded accepted valuation principles and methodologies, the implied aggregate market value of the company’s stock on August 29, 2001, was $5.0 million.Therefore, at that date, Michael’s shares would have had an agreed value of approximately $3.9 million, while Thomas’s shares would have had an agreed value of approximately $1.1 million. In July 2009, with no update to the agreed value of the company’s equity, Crown C purchased life insurance policies on both Michael’s and Thomas’s lives in the amount of $3.5 million each. The rationale for purchasing the same amount of life insurance on each brother’s life when one brother’s ownership interest was approximately 3.4x larger than the other brother’s is unclear. The SPA dictatedthat life insurance proceeds were to be used to redeem a deceased shareholder’s interest.The Sale and Purchase AgreementMichael, who served as Crown C’s president and CEO, died on October 1, 2013. Thomas was the executor of Michael’s estate. Effective November 13, 2013, Thomas, as trustee of Michael’s trust and a second trust for Molly C. Connelly, Michael’s daughter, recused himself from “all matters touching upon the sale, pricing, negotiation, and transaction of any sale of the stock of Michael P. Connelly, Sr.’s interest in Crown C Supply Company, Inc.”[5] Had Thomas not recused himself he would have been in the conflicted position of negotiating on behalf of Michael’s estate with the company, of which he was now the sole surviving shareholder. Effective the same date, Thomas and Michael’s son, Michael P. Connelly, Jr., executed a sale and purchase agreement governing the redemption of the estate’s shares in Crown C as well as in other entities.[6] Thomas (representing Crown C) and Michael Jr. (representing Michael Sr.’s estate) agreed, without relying upon a formal valuation, to a purchase price of $3.0 million for the estate’s shares (see graphic below).The estate noted, however, that the $3.0 million purchase price “resulted from extensive analysis of Crown C’s books and the proper valuation of assets and liabilities of the company. Thomas Connelly, as an experienced businessman extremely acquainted with Crown C’s finances, was able to ensure an accurate appraisal of the shares.[7] I’ll discuss the importance of engaging a qualified appraiser in matters such as these below.The Estate’s Argument: Life Insurance Proceeds Are Not a Corporate AssetCrown C received $3.5 million in life insurance proceeds upon Michael’s death. Crown C immediately recognized a corporate redemption liability and used $3.0 million of the life insurance proceeds to redeem the estate’s interest in Crown C. It is interesting to note from the graphic above that Michael’s estate’s interest originally was equal to the total cash value of the life insurance proceeds, but at some point was reduced by $500,000 because the company needed additional funding.[8] Exhibit 1 demonstrates this narrative.(click here to expand the figure above)Key takeaways from this scenario:One would expect to see a “top-down” valuation methodology in which the value of 100% of Crown C’s equity is established first, followed by the determination of value attributable to the estate’s shares. However, the aggregate value of Crown C’s equity of $3.9 million was implied based on the value of the estate’s interest of $3.0 million.Crown C immediately recognizes a redemption liability equal to $3.0 million in life insurance proceeds and pays $3.0 million to Michael’s estate in exchange for redeeming the estate’s 385.9 shares; Michael’s estate is redeemed at $7,774 per share.[9]Post-redemption, the total value of the company’s equity does not change while the share count decreases from 500 shares to 114.1 shares, all owned by Thomas.Thomas now owns 100% of the company at a value of $34,067 per share,[10] which is approximately 4.4x the value at which Michael’s estate was redeemed. The value of Thomas’s ownership interest increased by 338% with no additional investment.The IRS’ Argument: Life Insurance Proceeds Are a Corporate AssetThe IRS saw things differently, arguing that the insurance proceeds should be included in Crown C’s equity value. See Exhibit 2 below.(click here to expand the figure above)Key takeaways from this scenario:The equity value of the business for estate tax purposes was $6.9 million inclusive of the $3.0 million in life insurance proceeds. The IRS did not include the excess $500,000 of life insurance in its valuation.The resulting value per share is $13,728[11].The estate’s 385.9 shares have a total value of $5.3 million and Michael’s estate is redeemed at $13,728 per share, reducing the company’s equity value to $1,566,323.Post-redemption, the share count decreases from 500 shares to 114.1 shares, all owned by Thomas at a value of $13,728 per share, which is equal to the pre-redemption value per share.As the life insurance proceeds utilized only totaled $3.0 million, the redemption liability of $5.3 million would have been underfunded by approximately $2.3 million, leaving the company (in this case, solely Thomas) on the hook to finance the shortfall.The Funding Mechanism DilemmaIt should be obvious that the manner in which life insurance proceeds are treated can have a dramatic impact on the selling shareholder, the remaining shareholders, and the company’s ability to buyout the selling shareholder. In one scenario, the estate is redeemed relative to a windfall received by the surviving shareholder. In the second scenario, the estate is redeemed at a higher value, but to the detriment of the company most likely having to finance a portion of the buyout. So, what is the fair way to treat life insurance in this situation? Ultimately, the parties to the buy-sell agreement decide what is fair with the help of their legal and other professional advisors, but such a decision must be addressed directly and without vagueness in the buy-sell agreement.The Defining Elements of a Valuation Process AgreementWe now turn to observations of the Connelly SPA itself from a valuation perspective. Valuation process agreements such as the Connelly SPA have six defining elements:[12] (i) standard of value; (ii) level of value; (iii) the “as of” date; (iv) qualifications of the appraiser; (v) appraisal standards; and (vi) funding mechanisms. The first five elements are required to specify an appraisal that is consistent with prevailing business appraisal standards. We’ve seen how the Connelly SPA addressed element #6, funding mechanisms. So, how, then, does the Connelly SPA stack up regarding defining elements #1 through #5?Standard of ValuePer the American Society of Appraisers ASA Business Valuation Standards, the standard of value is “the identification of the type of value being used in a specific engagement; e.g. fair market value, fair value, investment value.”[13]Fair market value, the standard that applies to nearly all federal and estate tax valuation matters and which is specified in most buy-sell agreements, is referenced in the Connelly SPA as part of the definition of appraised value per share. Fair market value itself, however, is not defined in the SPA. Without a specific, clear definition of fair market value, such as that from the ASA Business Valuation Standards or the Internal Revenue Code, the interpretation of fair market value is left to the appraiser(s). In the Connelly matter, upon a triggering event two appraisers were to be engaged (one by Crown C and one by the selling shareholder). Should the opinions of these two appraisers diverge by more than 10% of the lower appraised value, a third appraiser could have been engaged. The SPA as drafted opens the door for three interpretations of fair market value. And with multiple interpretations comes the increased likelihood of litigation.Level of ValueValuation theory suggests that there are various “levels” of value applicable to a business or business ownership interest. The graphic below depicts these levels. A formal business valuation for gift and estate tax purposes will clearly state the level of value, and therefore, no interpretation is needed as to the applicability of control premiums or discounts for lack of control and lack of marketability.Per the Connelly SPA, in the scenario in which appraisers are utilized in lieu of issuing a certificate of agreed value, “the appraisers shall not take into consideration premiums or minority discounts in determining their respective appraisal values.” In the absence of minority interest discounts, Thomas’s minority interest (22.82%) would have been valued on a pro-rata basis relative to Crown C’s total value.The As-Of DateEvery appraisal has an “as-of” date, more commonly referred to as the valuation date. Why is the valuation date important? Business appraisers rely upon information that was “known or reasonably knowable” on the valuation date. For purposes of filing Form 706, the valuation date is the date of death (estates may elect the alternate date, six months from the date of death, as the valuation date). For redemption purposes, however, the Connelly SPA refers to “Appraisal Date,” which is “the date an option is exercised or a mandatory purchase is required.” As such, the Connelly SPA does allow for a redemption to occur on a specific date.Qualifications of AppraisersIf the qualifications of an appraiser are not specified, just about anyone can do the appraisal. The Connelly SPA mentions that an appraiser “shall have at least five years of experience in appraising businesses similar to the Company.” That’s it. The SPA makes no mention of formal education, valuation credentials such as ASA, ABV, or CVA, or continuing education and training requirements. Ultimately, this was a moot point for Connelly because no appraiser was ever hired to do a valuation. But what could happen if an unqualified appraiser is hired to perform a valuation? A recent tax court case, Estate of Scott M. Hoensheid, deceased, Anne M. Hoensheid, Personal Representative, and Anne M. Hoensheid, Petitioners, v. Commissioner of Internal Revenue Service, Respondent (T.C. Memo 2023-34), addressed this situation head-on. While the case was related to the donation of closely held stock, not using a qualified appraiser had a damaging impact on the taxpayer. The company whose shares were subject to the charitable gift had been marketed for sale by an investment banker prior to the gift. The taxpayer’s attorney suggested that the investment banker be considered to do the appraisal for the gifting because "since they have the numbers, it would seem to be the most efficient method."[14] In court, the petitioners argued that the investment banker was qualified because he had prepared "dozens of business valuations" over the course of his 20+ year career as an investment banker. According to the court, an individual’s “mere familiarity with the type of property being valued does not by itself make him qualified.” The court further noted that the investment banker “does not have appraisal certifications and does not hold himself out as an appraiser.” The court relied on testimony at trial about appraisal experience to be instructive, as the investment banker testified that he conducted valuations "briefly" and only "on a limited basis" before starting at the investment bank the year before the appraisal. The investment banker also testified that he performed (presumably at no charge) business valuations for prospective clients "once or twice a year" in order to solicit their business. The court found the investment banker’s “uncontroverted testimony sufficient to establish that he does not regularly perform appraisals for which [he] receives compensation." The end result for the taxpayer in Hoensheid: the Tax Court found that the taxpayer failed to comply with the qualified appraisal requirements and denied the charitable deduction.Appraisal StandardsOccasionally, buy-sell agreements lay out the specific business appraisal standards to be followed by the appraiser. Standards most often cited in buy-sell agreements are the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (commonly referred to as “USPAP”), the ASA Business Valuation Standards, AICPA’s Statement on Standards for Valuation Services No. 1 (commonly referred to “SSVS”) and NACVA’s Professional Standards. The Connelly SPA did not reference any of these standards. Without any appraisal standards referenced, any appraiser elected to perform a valuation under the SPA who was not a member of one of the national appraisal organizations has no requirement to follow any set of standards or code of ethics.Tax Court ConclusionsConnelly was first decided by the District Court in September 2021. Having been appealed by the estate, the Eighth Circuit affirmed the District Court’s decision in June 2023. The District Court Decision The IRS had contended that the life insurance proceeds should be included in the valuation of Crown C’s equity. The estate argued that the redemption obligation was a corporate liability that offset the life insurance proceeds dollar for dollar. The District Court sided with the IRS, noting that “Because the insurance proceeds are not offset by Crown C's obligation to redeem Michael's shares, the fair market value of Crown C at the date of date of death and of Michael's shares includes all of the insurance proceeds.”[15]The Circuit Court DecisionThe Circuit Court affirmed the District Court’s decision, noting “In sum, the brothers’ arrangement had nothing to do with corporate liabilities. The proceeds were simply an asset that increased shareholders’ equity. A fair market value of Michael’s shares must account for that reality.”[16]Current StatusShareholder buyouts often occur at inconvenient times, and poor planning can have financially devastating consequences. In Connelly, a poorly drafted buy-sell agreement resulted in a notice of deficiency from the IRS in the amount of $998,155 [17] and undisclosed legal and professional fees incurred to litigate the matter. The estate has sought a refund of $1,027,042 that it views was “erroneously, illegally, and excessively assessed against and/or collected from Plaintiff as federal estate tax…”[18] In August 2023, counsel for the estate filed with the Supreme Court of the United States a petition for a writ of certiorari to the United States Court of Appeals for the Eight Circuit. On December 13, 2023, the Supreme Court granted the petition for writ of certiorari, signifying its acceptance of the case for review. As of February 2024, the case had not yet been set for argument.[1] Courts have had differing opinions on the life insurance/valuation matter. In Estate of George C. Blount, Deceased, Fred B. Aftergut, Executor, v. Commissioner, the United States Court of Appeals, Eleventh Circuit ruled that life insurance proceeds used to redeem a stockholder’s shares do not count towards the fair market value of the company when valuing those same shares.[2] The buy-sell agreement that is the subject of Connelly was challenged by the IRS as invalid for controlling the valuation of the subject company’s stock in an estate tax scenario. The district and circuit courts both agreed and deemed the buy-sell agreement invalid.[3] Crown C was sold to SRS Distribution, Inc., a portfolio company of Leonard Green & Partners and Berkshire Partners, in 2018. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Crown C continued to serve the St. Louis market as of the publication date of this article.[4] Amended and restated stock purchase agreement by and among Michael P. Connelly, trustee U/I/T dated 8/15/90, Michael P. Connelly, grantor, and Thomas A. Connelly, executed effective August 29, 2001.[5] Sale and purchase agreement by and among Thomas A. Connelly, trustee of The Michael Connelly Irrevocable Trust dated 15 August 1990, Crown C Supply Co., Inc., a Missouri Corporation, Thomas A. Connelly, individually, Connelly Partnership/Connelly, LLC, and 5200 Manchester, LLC, executed November 13, 2013.[6] Ibid.[7]Connelly v. United States, Memorandum and Order, page 21, September 2021.[8] Appeal from the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri – St. Louis, No. 21-3683, page 3, filed June 2, 2023.[9] ($3.0 million / 385.9 shares) = $7,774 / share.[10] ($3.9 million / 114.1 shares) = $34,067 per share.[11] ($6.9 million / 500 shares)[12] Mercer, Z. Christopher, Buy-Sell Agreements for Closely Held and Family Business Owners (Peabody Publishing LP, 2010).[13] American Society of Appraisers Business Valuation Standards (approved through November 2009).[14] T.C. Memo. 2023-34; Estate of Scott M. Hoensheid, deceased, Anne M. Hoensheid, Personal Representative, and Anne M. Hoensheid, Petitioners, v. Commissioner of Internal Revenue Service, Respondent.[15] Connelly v. United States, Memorandum and Order, page 35, September 2021.[16] Appeal from the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri – St. Louis, No. 21-3683, page 13, filed June 2, 2023[17] Complaint of Thomas A. Connelly, Executor of the Estate of Michael P. Connelly, Sr. dated May 23, 2019.[18] Ibid.Originally published in Mercer Capital's Value Matters Newsletter: Q1 2024
The Tangled Path to Banking’s Garden of Earthly Delights
The Tangled Path to Banking’s Garden of Earthly Delights
Hieronymus Bosch, The Garden of Earthly Delights, 1490-1510, Museo del Prado, Madrid.One of BankWatch’s favorite artists is the Dutch painter Hieronymus Bosch (1450-1516). His work is both enigmatic and fantastical, with bizarre human/animal hybrid forms and other monstrous creations of Bosch’s fecund imagination. Indicating its lasting relevance and, in a sense, modernity, centuries later Bosch’s work served as inspiration when the Surrealist movement sought to depict dreamlike scenes formed from the depths of their unconscious mind. One triptych, The Garden of Earthly Delights, depicts a utopian scene in the middle panel adjacent to a hellscape in the right panel.It serves as an apt metaphor for the banking industry’s stomach churning volatility in 2023.As in the hellscape panel on the right side of the triptych, the banking industry sunk to the depths of despair beginning in March 2023, tormented by bank failures and deposit runs.From year-end 2022 to the nadir in May 2023, the Nasdaq Bank Index sunk 34%. Bank stocks rebounded during the summer but remained under pressure through the fall as the ten year Treasury rate briefly exceeded 5%.Finally, more dovish comments from Chairman Powell lifted sentiments, causing the Nasdaq Bank index to appreciate by 12% in November 2023 and 15% in December 2023.While we have not returned to a banking utopia, the greener pastures in which Bosch’s hybrid forms graze in the triptych’s middle panel seem more representative of industry conditions at year-end 2023.2023 PerformanceFor 2023, the Nasdaq Bank Index and the KBWNasdaq Regional Bank Index depreciated by 7% and 4%, respectively (see Figure 1 ). This marks the second year of negative performance for bank stock indices. Between year-end 2021 and 2023—covering the entire period of rising rates—the Nasdaq Bank and Regional Bank indices decreased by 24% and 13%, respectively (see Figure 2).After losing 19% in 2022, the S&P recovered in 2023 with 24% appreciation, meaning that the S&P 500 at year-end 2023 returned to a level virtually identical to year-end 2021. Struggling with earnings pressure, banks lost favor with growth minded investors, thereby underperforming the broader market.Figure 1 :: Index Performance (12/31/22 - 12/31/23)Figure 2 :: Index Performance (12/31/21 - 12/31/23)Figure 3 stratifies the 328 banks and thrifts traded on the NYSE and Nasdaq by asset size. Banks in the three strata between $1 billion and $100 billion performed similarly, with the median bank’s stock price falling by about 5% in 2023. Between 30% to 40% of banks reported share price appreciation over year-end 2022. The largest banks outperformed in 2023, as several banks like J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) “over-earned” their long-term return on equity target. JPM and other money center banks were boosted by low-cost deposits flowing from smaller banks in the wake of the failures of SVB, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank.JPM also recorded a bargain purchase gain from the acquisition of First Republic Bank as did First Citizens BancShares (NYSE: FCNCA) and New York Community (NYSE: NYCB), the winning bidders for SVB and Signature Bank.Figure 3Figure 4 replicates the analysis for the period between year-end 2021 and year-end 2023. Not all banks have struggled through this rising rate environment, as 28% of banks reported share price appreciation over the two-year period. Nevertheless, the largest number of banks have experienced a 10% to 20% decline in their share prices.Figure 4Catalysts for (Under)PerformanceChanges in the net interest margin have the greatest effect on profitability and share price performance in the current environment, given limited credit issues. Figure 5 includes publicly traded banks with assets between $1 billion and $10 billion, sorted into quartiles based on their NIM change between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2023.Figure 5The first quartile, including banks with the most severe NIM pressure, experienced a median stock price change of negative 14% in 2023. Meanwhile, banks in the fourth quartile—with the least NIM pressure or even NIM expansion—eked out a positive 2% change in stock price.This relationship holds true if we consider the entire rising rate period between the first quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2023 (see Figure 6). Over this period, approximately one-half of the banks reported a higher NIM; however, the market provided a meager reward with share prices for banks in the fourth quartile appreciating by a median of 4%. This reflects the market’s focus on the more recent trend in the margin—generally downward for most banks—rather than a historical anchor in a low rate environment. Meanwhile, the banks in the first quartile that were most exposed to rising rates suffered a median -24% change in their stock prices.Figure 6Valuation ImplicationsFigure 7 illustrates the earnings pressure resulting from tighter NIMs.For 2023, analysts’ EPS estimates indicate a median EPS decline of 15% for publicly traded banks with assets between $1 and $15 billion, with 73% of the banks in the analysis expected to face lower year-over-year earnings in 2023. These estimates are based upon recent data. Measured from January 2023, the reduction in earnings estimates is much more severe, meaning analysts cut estimates as the year progressed.Figure 7The outlook is only marginally better in 2024, as the median decline in EPS is 8%. Analysts generally expect NIMs to stabilize, or at least decline at a more modest rate, in the first half of 2024, followed by some expansion in the second half of 2024. The NIM stabilization in the latter half of 2024 leads to earnings growth in 2025 for most banks, with a median EPS growth rate of 10%. However, only 28% of banks in our analysis are projected to have higher EPS in 2025 than in 2022.With the share price recovery in late 2023, publicly traded banks with assets between $1 and $15 billion reported a median price/one year forward earnings multiple of 11.5x and a price/tangible book value multiple of 1.26x. As indicated in Figure 8, these multiples are in-line with the range over the last five years. Therefore, the catalyst for further share price appreciation likely will be earnings improvement rather than P/E multiple expansion.Figure 8ConclusionThe worst has passed for banks, with slowing deposit attrition and stabilizing NIMs, unless credit performs materially worse than expected.However, conditions likely are not ripe for rapid earnings growth. First, NIMs likely will recover more slowly than they contracted due to volume of assets repricing years into the future. Second, many banks are reporting slowing loan growth, as higher rates have gradually eroded loan demand. Third, if loan demand exists, marginal funding remains difficult to obtain at a favorable cost of funds.For many publicly traded banks, returning to the garden of earthly delights remains a ways off.Orginally appeared in the January 2024 issue of Bank Watch.
5 Reasons Buyers Need a Quality of Earnings Report
5 Reasons Buyers Need a Quality of Earnings Report
For family businesses, an acquisition that goes sour can negatively affect family wealth for decades to come. Obtaining a thorough QofE report as part of deal diligence can help family business directors avoid such a misstep.
Forward Air Corporation to Acquire Omni Logistics, LLC? 
Forward Air Corporation to Acquire Omni Logistics, LLC? 
Another tough call for the merger arb community – acquirer and target sue each other in Delaware Court of Chancery to respectively terminate the merger agreement or force consummation of the merger
The Baltimore Bridge Collapse, One Month Later
The Baltimore Bridge Collapse, One Month Later

Q1 2024

It’s been about a month since cargo ship Dali collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in the waters of the Chesapeake Bay. We wrote about the collapse when it occurred and wanted to revisit the topic. The bridge collapse represents another event in a string of global impacts on the supply chain and is another reminder about how unpredictable events can have a wide reach.
Bank M&A 2023
Bank M&A 2023
Subdued But Potentially Explosive
Worldwide Impacts on Marine Shipping
Worldwide Impacts on Marine Shipping

Q4 2023

We discussed reshoring and nearshoring trends a bit in the last newsletter. There’s been some developments on that front, especially as it relates to the ongoing battle between East Coast and West Coast ports.
Elon Musk on Fairness and Solvency Opinions
Elon Musk on Fairness and Solvency Opinions
While portfolio valuations are driven by governance and reporting requirements, major transactions often demand fairness and solvency opinions that extend beyond financial analysis to include process, legal standards, and conflicts of interest. High-profile transactions involving Elon Musk — including Tesla–SolarCity and the acquisition of Twitter — offer timely lessons for private equity and private credit investors navigating complex deals.
It’s Getting Real(ized)
It’s Getting Real(ized)
Rising rates have driven unrealized losses in bank bond portfolios, prompting some banks to restructure securities to boost yields, margins, and long-term earnings despite near-term capital impacts.
UPDATE: Analysis of the Spirit Fairness Opinions re the JetBlue Acquisition
UPDATE: Analysis of the Spirit Fairness Opinions re the JetBlue Acquisition
Spirit-JetBlue’s stalled merger highlights regulatory risk and time erosion, as Spirit shares trade far below the $33.50 offer.
Specialty Finance M&A
Specialty Finance M&A
Acquiring a specialty finance company comes with a unique set of hurdles, different than acquiring a bank.
Opportunities for Ownership Succession in the Beer Wholesaler Industry
Opportunities for Ownership Succession in the Beer Wholesaler Industry
For those wholesalers contemplating succession, now is the time to act.
Coming Off the COVID Wave
Coming Off the COVID Wave

Q3 2023

We’re sitting most of the way through 2023 at this point, and we are continuing to live in interesting times. The shipping frenzy brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic has run its course and the industry is returning to more normal levels. At the same time though, it is important to note that a decline from never-before-seen highs does not necessarily indicate a freight recession is underway. Many of the year-over-year data points will indicated large declines, but on a quarterly or monthly basis, the data is much more stable.
This Interest Rate Environment Done Got Old
This Interest Rate Environment Done Got Old
This article covers some implications of a higher-for-longer rate environment.
2023 Core Deposit Intangibles Update
2023 Core Deposit Intangibles Update
Although deal activity has been slow, we have seen an obvious uptick in core deposit intangible values relative to this time last year.
Fairness Opinions and Down Markets
Fairness Opinions and Down Markets
Fairness opinions do not offer opinions about where a security will trade in the future. Instead the opinion addresses fairness from a financial point of view to all or a subset of shareholders as of a specific date. The evaluation process is trickier when markets fall sharply, but it is not unmanageable.
Net Interest Margin Trends for Banks Versus Credit Unions
Net Interest Margin Trends for Banks Versus Credit Unions
The change in the median NIM from 1Q22-1Q23 is greater for banks versus credit unions (31 basis point expansion vs. 25 basis point expansion).Yields on earning assets expanded to a greater degree for banks versus credit unions from 1Q22-1Q23, which likely reflects a greater proportion of fixed rate loans for credit unions versus banks.The median yield on loans increased 87 bps for banks from 1Q22-1Q23 in comparison to 61 bps for credit unions.Credit unions appear to be less sensitive (at least so far) to funding cost pressure.The median cost of earning assets for banks increased by 91 bps from 1Q22- 1Q23 in comparison to 70 bps for credit unions.The 1Q22-1Q23 change in the NIM components varies by asset size (that is larger banks/CUs generally have experienced larger upward adjustments to both asset yields and the cost of funds, relative to smaller banks/CUs).Over the course of 2022, the median NIM for banks expanded from 3.06% in 1Q22 to 3.59% in 4Q22, while the median NIM for credit unions expanded from 3.04% to 3.40%.The NIM advantage reported by banks began to dissipate in 1Q23 as banks faced more cost of funds pressure than CUs.Bank NIMs widened by 17 bps more than CU NIMs between 1Q22 and 4Q22. However, funding cost pressures in 1Q23 caused bank NIMs to tighten by 22 bps in 1Q23, while CU NIMs compressed by only 11 bps.The change in NIMs between 1Q22 and 1Q23 can be decomposed as follows:Source of data for tables: S&P Capital IQ Pro, Mercer Capital research. Includes credit unions and banks with assets > $500 Million as of 12/31/21Originally appeared in the June 2023 issue of Bank Watch.
Bank Impairment Testing
Bank Impairment Testing
Bank stocks have underperformed in the broad market since the beginning of the year and many currently trade below book value, which begs the question, is goodwill impaired?
The Terminal Value
The Terminal Value
After years of abundant liquidity and elevated exit multiples, the valuation of portfolio companies has become more challenging in today’s bear market. With lower growth expectations, higher discount rates, and fading reliance on bull-market comparables, disciplined fair value analysis grounded in market-clearing prices is more important than ever.
Merger Arbitrage and Valuation
Merger Arbitrage and Valuation
We are sometimes asked to value common equity securities where the target (usually our client) has agreed to be acquired but the transaction has not yet closed.
Fair Market Value and the Nonexistent Marketability Discount for Controlling Interests
Fair Market Value and the Nonexistent Marketability Discount for Controlling Interests
This article discusses the concept of fair market value and its various effects. First, we explain what fair market value means. Then, we explore the hypothetical negotiations between potential buyers and sellers when determining fair market value and the implications of these discussions.
First Republic Bank & The Asymmetry of Banking
First Republic Bank & The Asymmetry of Banking
First Republic Bank’s first quarter 2023 earnings release said little, yet little needed to be said.
What Are Bank Stocks Telling Investors?
What Are Bank Stocks Telling Investors?
What was expected to be a prosaic first quarter was anything but that.
Toronto-Dominion Bank and First Horizon National Merger
Toronto-Dominion Bank and First Horizon National Merger
FHN is a tough call for the merger arbitrage community: $25 per share of cash if the current deal closes; regulators reject the deal, causing FHN's shares to trade freely in a tough market for bank stocks; or the parties extend the merger agreement again, but does the price get renegotiated?
“I’m Not Broke. I’m Just Not Liquid.”
“I’m Not Broke. I’m Just Not Liquid.”
Like the Katy leaving the station, the banking industry is embarking into the unknown after the failures of SVB and Signature.
Letters From the SEC: Business Combinations Edition
Letters From the SEC: Business Combinations Edition
We discuss and comment upon four examples covering customer relationships, tradenames, contingent consideration, and bargain purchases.
Themes from Bank Director’s 2023 Acquire or Be Acquired Conference
Themes from Bank Director’s 2023 Acquire or Be Acquired Conference
The 2023 version of AOBA felt bigger than ever.
Analysis of the Spirit Fairness Opinions re the JetBlue Acquisition
Analysis of the Spirit Fairness Opinions re the JetBlue Acquisition
As participants and observers in transactions, the pending acquisition of Spirit Airlines, Inc. (NYSE: SAVE) by JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQGS: JBLU) offers a lot of fodder for us to comment on.
2022 Bank Stock Performance Recap
2022 Bank Stock Performance Recap
As in 2022, no doubt some newfound concerns will emerge in 2023 to drive bank stock performance.
Bank M&A 2022 — Turbulence
Bank M&A 2022 — Turbulence
At this time last year, we thought bank M&A would be described as a second year of “gaining altitude” after 2020 was spent on the tarmac following the short, but deep recession in the spring of 2020. Our one caveat was that bank stocks would have to avoid a bear market following a strong performance in 2021 because bear markets are not conducive to bank M&A.The caveat was correct. Bear markets developed in both bank stocks and fixed income that included the most deeply inverted U.S. Treasury curve since the early 1980s. Among the data points:The NASDAQ Bank Index declined 19% through December 28;The Fed raised the Fed Funds target rate 425bps to 4.25% to 4.50%;The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose 236bps to 3.88%; andCredit spreads widened, including 150bps of option adjusted spread (OAS) on the ICE BofA High Yield Index to 4.55% from 3.05%.The outlook for deal making in 2023 is challenged by significant interest rate marks (i.e., unrealized losses in fixed-rate assets), credit marks given a potential recession, soft real estate values, and the bear market for bank stocks that has depressed public market multiples. For larger deals, an additional headwind is the significant amount of time required to obtain regulatory approval.However, core deposits are more attractive for acquirers than in a typical year given rising loan-to-deposit ratios, the high cost of wholesale borrowings and an inability to sell bonds to generate liquidity given sizable unrealized losses. A rebound in bank stocks and even a modest rally in the bond market that lessens interest rate marks could be the catalysts for an acceleration of activity in 2023 provided any recession is shallow.A Recap of 2022As of December 28, 2022, there have been 167 announced bank and thrift deals compared to 216 in 2021 and 117 in 2020. During the halcyon pre-COVID years, about 270 transactions were announced each year during 2017-2019.As a percentage of charters, acquisition activity in 2022 accounted for 3.5% of the number of banks and thrifts as of January 1. Since 1990, the range is about 2% to 4%, although during 2014 to 2019 the number of banks absorbed each year exceeded 4% and topped 5% in 2019. As of September 30, there were 4,746 bank and thrift charters compared to 4,839 as of year-end 2021 and about 18,000 charters in 1985 when a ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court paved the way for national consolidation.Also notable was the lack of many large deals. Toronto-Dominion’s (NYSE: TD)pending $13.7 billion cash acquisition of First Horizon (NYSE: FHN) represents 61% of the $23 billion of announced acquisitions this year compared to $78 billion in 2021 when divestitures of U.S. operations by MUFG and BNP and several larger transactions inflated the aggregate value.Pricing—as measured by the average price/tangible book value (P/TBV) multiple—was unchanged compared to 2021. As always, color is required to explain the price/earnings (P/E) multiple based upon reported earnings.The median P/TBV multiple was 154% in 2022. As shown in Figure 1, the average transaction multiple since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) peaked in 2018 at 174% then declined to 134% in 2020 due to the impact of the short but deep recession on economic activity and markets.The median P/E in 2022 eased slightly to 14.6x from 15.3x in 2021; however, buyers focus on pro forma earnings with fully phased-in expense saves that often are on the order of 7x to 8x unless there are unusual circumstances. Accretion in EPS is required by buyers to offset day one dilution to TBVPS and to recoup the increase in TBVPS that would be realized on a stand-alone basis as investors expect TBVPS payback periods not to exceed three years.Figure 1 :: 1990-2022 National Bank M&A MultiplesClick here to expand the image abovePublic Market Multiples vs Acquisition MultiplesFigure 2 compares the annual average P/TBV and P/E for banks that were acquired for $50 million to $250 million since 2000 with the average daily public market multiple each year for the SNL Small Cap Bank Index.1Among the takeaways are the following:Acquisition pricing prior to the GFC as measured by P/TBV multiples approximated 300% except for the recession years of 2001 and 2002 when the average multiples were 248% and 267%.Since 2014, average P/TBV multiples have been in the approximate range of 160% to 180% except for 2020.The reduction in both the public and acquisition P/TBV multiples since the GFC reflects a reduction in ROEs for the industry since the Fed adopted a zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) other than 2017-2019 and 2022.Since pooling of interest accounting ended in 2001, the “pay-to-trade” multiple as measured by the average acquisition multiple relative to the average index multiple has remained in a relatively narrow range of roughly 0.9 to 1.15 other than during 2009 and 2010.P/E multiples based upon unadjusted LTM earnings have approximated or exceeded 20x prior to 2019 compared to 14-18x since then.Acquisition P/Es have tended to reflect a pay-to-trade multiple of 1.25 since the GFC but the pay-to-trade multiples are comfortably below 1.0x to the extent the pro forma earnings multiple is 7-8x, the result being EPS accretion for the buyer.Figure 2 :: 2000-2022 Acquisition Multiples vs Public Market MultiplesClick here to expand the image aboveFigure 3 :: 2000-2022 M&A TBV Multiples vs. Index TBV MultiplesClick here to expand the image abovePremium Trends SubduedInvestors often focus on what can be referred to as icing vs the cake in the form of acquisition premiums relative to public market prices. Investors tend to talk about acquisition premiums as an alpha generator, but long-term performance (or lack thereof) of the target is what drives shareholder returns.As shown in Figure 4, the average five-day premium for transactions announced in 2022 that exceeded $100 million in which the buyer and usually the seller were publicly traded was about 20%, a level that is comparable to recent years other than 2020. For buyers, the average reduction in price compared to five days prior to announcement was 2.5%. There are exceptions, of course, when investors question the pricing (actually, the exchange ratio), day one dilution to TBVPS and earn-back period. For instance, Provident Financial (NASDAQ: PFS) saw its shares drop 12.5% after it announced it would acquire Lakeland Bancorp (NASDAQ: LBAI) for $1.3 billion on September 27, 2022.Figure 4About Mercer CapitalM&A entails a lot of moving parts of which “price” is only one. It is especially important for would be sellers to have a level-headed assessment of the investment attributes of the acquirer’s shares to the extent merger consideration will include the buyer’s common shares. Mercer Capital has 40 years of experience in assessing mergers, the investment merits of the buyer’s shares and the like. Please call if we can help your board in 2023 assess a potential strategic transaction.
MedTech & Device - Industry Scan 2022
MedTech & Device - Industry Scan 2022
For this quarterly update, we bring together a couple of strands of our medtech and device industry practice.First, as long-term observers, public market developments in 2022 were interesting and perhaps marked an inflection point for the short to medium term.Second, in October, we attended a medtech industry conference, where we were able to gather a rich set of perspectives.The implications for some of the larger companies in the space are probably clear-cut.The downstream reverberations to private, development stage companies may be less straightforward.Nevertheless, since development stage companies are typically constrained by currently available funds and continually contemplating the next funding round, these developments are of critical importance.2022: A Brief ReviewA tumultuous year in the public markets is coming to a close.By the end of the third quarter 2022, the S&P 500 was down nearly 25%, marking a near-bottom for the year.The broader medtech and devices industry largely followed suit.On the brighter side, established large, diversified companies, while lagging their own previous benchmarks, outperformed the broader market.As a group, some biotech and life sciences companies (see next section) also seemed to fare relatively well.A closer look reveals that within the group some of the larger companies with more diversified revenue bases and, perhaps more importantly, profitable operations performed much better than smaller companies promising higher growth but deferred profits.Current profitability also appeared to differentiate better stock price performers among the medical device and healthcare technology companies.At the same time, negative sentiment was more apparent for wide swathes of these two groups compared to the broader industry.It is obvious in hindsight but over the course of 2022, as interest rates rose and remained high, markets seemed to prefer existing earnings and nearer-term cash flows over future (rosier) prospects.The shift towards more caution also manifested in other measures of market sentiment and activity.Wholesale downward revisions of earnings (growth) estimates have not occurred so far (this may yet come to pass), so much of the price decline reflects compressing valuation multiples.The pace of M&A transactions, which had gone from strength to strength during 2020 and 2021 despite myriad disruptions and distractions, decelerated significantly in 2022.By our measure, total transactions volume in the industry through the first three quarters of 2022 was roughly equal to that of just the fourth quarter of 2021.The number of IPOs also slowed to a trickle.Looking Ahead to 2023 and Beyond: A Few Notes for Development Stage CompaniesNo industry is an island but as we and others have pointed out, several long-term trends, demographic and otherwise, suggest a favorable overall outlook for the medtech and device space. Even against the seemingly dour recent market backdrop, a multitude of attendees at the medtech conference agreed on the relative merits of the industry compared to the broader economy and market. We work with a number of development stage medtech and device companies over the course of a typical year. From that perspective, we find the long-term trends interesting because of the structural emphasis on continual innovation that improve outcomes for patients and clinicians.A defining feature of medtech innovation funding is that it occurs over multiple tranches as the technologies and companies achieve various developmental milestones.In this context, some observations for development stage companies:An obvious first order effect of the recent public market developments over the past year is that development stage companies should expect generally lower valuations for funding rounds (at least) over the next couple of years.Lackluster exit activity, via either M&A or IPO, delays and/or reduces deployable capital for venture capital funds, which will make them more cautious in considering investment decisions.The sentiment shift towards more caution is shared by all investors, although the degrees will differ.Accordingly, in addition to valuation compression, some types of companies (for example, those at the pre-clinical stage) will find fundraising to be extremely difficult.As a corollary, investors are likely to prize clean clinical data. Companies focused on demonstrating good clinical outcomes will be better prepared for future funding rounds.Similarly, companies that can stretch their existing funds until they can achieve a good (clinical) milestone will be better rewarded in the next funding round.Commercial traction after hurdling regulatory approval remains an important structural consideration, especially for the non-corporate investors.Wrap-upBeyond the near-term market dynamics, a key conference takeaway for us was that the medtech funding eco-system is deep and diverse.We met and heard from traditional venture capital investors, corporate investors, and folks who operate in the continuum between them.The goals for the various investors differ to some degree, with some focused on financial attributes while others (like corporate VCs) include strategic considerations in the mix.Investors with broader goals and considerations are, to an extent, less sensitive to the prevailing market conditions and can afford to take a longer-term view.Even among these investors, financial terms and preferred deal structures vary considerably.For development stage companies contemplating fundraising efforts, a deep and diverse investor eco-system can provide plenty of optionality.In keeping with a recurring theme of this update, a note of caution – evaluating a potential funding round requires both an examination of the financial terms and an understanding of the structural features and their longer-term implications.Mercer Capital has broad experience in providing valuation services to medtech and device start-ups, larger public and private companies, and private equity and venture capital funds involved in the sector.Please contact us to discuss how we may be of help.For a more in-depth review of the industry, take a look at our most recent newsletter.
5 Things to Know About the SEC’s New Pay Versus Performance Rules
5 Things to Know About the SEC’s New Pay Versus Performance Rules
In August 2022, the SEC adopted final rules implementing the Pay Versus Performance Disclosure required by Section 953(a) of the Dodd-Frank Act. These rules go into effect for the 2023 proxy season and introduce significant new valuation requirements related to equity-based compensation paid to company executives. What does this mean, and how does it apply to you? What are the requirements, and why might there be significant valuation challenges involved? We discuss all that and more below.Executive SummaryThe new SEC proxy disclosure rules introduce several new requirements, including that registrants calculate and disclose a new figure (Compensation Actually Paid), alongside existing executive compensation information. For most registrants, the rules will apply to upcoming 2023 proxy season.A new Pay Versus Performance table will detail the relationship between the Compensation Actually Paid, the financial performance of the registrant over the time horizon of the disclosure, and comparisons of total shareholder return.The newly introduced concept of Compensation Actually Paid will require companies to measure the period-to-period change in the fair value of all equity-based compensation awarded to named executive officers.The type of equity awards that have been granted will determine the complexity of the valuation process. Equity-based awards such as stock options might require updated Black Scholes or lattice modeling, while awards with performance or market conditions may require more complex Monte Carlo simulations.Registrants should understand that if equity awards have been granted on a consistent basis for a period of years, the new rules could require a large number of historical valuations for this initial proxy season and a significant amount of disclosure complexity.Advance planning and processes will be needed to establish the scope and complexity of complying with the new rules, including identifying how many equity-based awards will require updated valuations to measure the period-to-period changes.1. Overview and BackgroundThe new disclosures were mandated by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and were originally proposed by the SEC in 2015. These rules will add a new item 402(v) to Regulation S-K and are intended to provide investors with more transparent, readily comparable, and understandable disclosure of a registrant’s executive compensation. The new provisions apply to all reporting companies other than (i) foreign private issuers, (ii) registered investment companies, and (iii) emerging growth companies.The rules apply to any proxy and information statement where shareholders are voting on directors or executive compensation that is filed in respect of a fiscal year ending on or after December 16, 2022. As such, the vast majority of registrants will be required to include related disclosure for their 2023 proxy statements, though there are relaxed requirements for smaller reporting companies.The new SEC proxy disclosure rules introduce several new requirements, including that registrants calculate and disclose a new figure (Compensation Actually Paid), alongside existing executive compensation information. For most registrants, the rules will apply to upcoming 2023 proxy season.2. The Pay Versus Performance TableThe new rules require registrants to describe the relationship between the Executive Compensation Actually Paid (“CAP”) and the financial performance of the registrant over the time horizon of the disclosure. Additional items include disclosure of the cumulative Total Shareholder Return (“TSR”) of the registrant, the TSR of the registrant’s peer group, the registrant’s net income, and a company-selected measure chosen by the registrant as a measure of financial performance. These items are to be disclosed in tabular form (based on an example included in the final rule), which is replicated below.Click here to expand the table aboveThe table includes the following components:Year. The form applies to the five most recent fiscal years (or three years for smaller reporting companies)Summary Compensation Table Total for Primary Executive Officer (PEO). These are the same total compensation figures as reported under existing SEC proxy disclosure requirements. However, additional columns may need to be added if there was PEO turnover in the relevant periods.Compensation Actually Paid to PEO. For each fiscal year, registrants are required to make adjustments to the total PEO compensation reported in Item (b) for pension and equity awards that are calculated in accordance with US GAAP. This item is potentially complex and is discussed in detail below.Average Summary Compensation Table Total for Non-PEO Named Executive Officers (NEOs). These average figures would be calculated using the same compensation figures as reported under existing SEC proxy disclosure requirements for NEOs. Different individuals may be included in the average throughout the five (or three) year period. Footnote disclosure is required to list the individual NEOs.Average Compensation Actually Paid to Non-PEO NEOs. These amounts would be calculated using the same methodology as in Item (c), but then averaging the amounts in each year.Total Shareholder Return. The registrant’s TSR is to be determined in the same manner as is required by existing Regulation S-K guidance. TSR is calculated as the sum of (1) cumulative dividends (assuming dividend reinvestment) and (2) the increase or decrease in the company’s stock price for the year, divided by the share price at the beginning of the year.Peer Group Total Shareholder Return. This is calculated consistently with the methodology used for Item (f). Registrants are required to use the same peer group they use for existing performance graph disclosures or compensation discussion and analysis.Net Income. This is simply GAAP net income for the relevant period.Company Selected Measure. This item is intended to represent the most important financial performance measure the registrant uses to link compensation paid to its PEOs and other NEOs to company performance. The registrant can select a GAAP or non-GAAP financial measure.The remainder of this article focuses on the two shaded columns (c) and (e) which address Compensation Actually Paid and the valuation inputs that support these disclosures.A new Pay Versus Performance table will detail the relationship between the Compensation Actually Paid, the financial performance of the registrant over the time horizon of the disclosure, and comparisons of total shareholder return.3. What Is Compensation Actually Paid?For each fiscal year, registrants are required to adjust the total compensation reported in Columns (b) and (d) for pension and equity awards that are calculated in accordance with US GAAP. The following table describes these adjustments in detail. The pension-related adjustments should be calculated using the principles in ASC 715, Compensation – Retirement Benefits. The equity-based compensation adjustments will require registrants to disclose the fair value of equity awards in the year granted and report changes in the fair value of the awards until they vest. This means that it will be necessary to measure the year-end fair value of all outstanding and unvested equity awards for the PEO and other NEOs under a methodology consistent with what the registrant uses in its financial statements. For most registrants, this will be ASC 718, Compensation – Stock Compensation. Appropriate footnote disclosure may also be required to identify the amount of each adjustment and any valuation assumptions that materially differ from those disclosed at the time of the equity grant.The newly introduced concept of Compensation Actually Paid will require companies to measure the period-to-period change in the fair value of all equity-based compensation awarded to named executive officers.4. What Are the Different Types of Equity Awards?The procedures used to calculate fair value will vary depending on the type of equity award.For restricted stock and restricted stock units (RSUs), fair value can be calculated using observed share prices at the grant date, fiscal year-end, and the vesting date. The change in fair value would simply be the difference between these dates.For stock options and stock appreciation rights (SARs), fair value at the grant date is often calculated using a Black-Scholes or lattice model. Therefore, updated fair values at year-end and at the vesting date should be based on updated assumptions in those models, including current stock price, volatility, expected term, risk-free rate, dividend yield, and consideration of a sub-optimal exercise factor (in a lattice model). Care should be taken to ensure that expected term appropriately considers moneyness of the options at the new date. The use of historical and/or option-implied volatility should be evaluated for consistency and continued applicability.For performance shares and performance share units (PSUs), the fair value calculations may be more complex due to the presence of a performance condition (e.g., the award vests if revenues increase by 15% and EBITDA margin is at least 20%) or a market condition (e.g., the award vests if the registrant’s total shareholder return over a three-year period exceeds its peer group by at least 5%). The performance condition will require updated probability estimates at year-end and at the vesting date. Awards with market conditions are typically valued at their grant date using Monte Carlo simulation and so a reassessment at subsequent dates using a consistent simulation model with updated assumptions will be necessary.The type of equity awards that have been granted will determine the complexity of the valuation process. Equity-based awards such as stock options might require updated Black Scholes or lattice modeling, while awards with performance or market conditions may require more complex Monte Carlo simulations.5. Special Considerations for Market Condition Awards Using Monte Carlo SimulationMarket condition awards come in many different flavors. Three of the most common types of plans include:Market condition based upon performance in the registrant’s own stock. In this plan, vesting might be achieved if the registrant’s share price exceeds a certain level for a defined number of trading days or reaches an agreed-upon measure of total shareholder return.Market condition based upon relative total shareholder return. In this plan, the award vests based upon the registrant’s TSR in comparison to a similarly calculated TSR for a broad market benchmark index, an industry index, a peer company, or group of peer companies. Some plans employ a modification factor that adjusts the size of the award based upon varying levels of relative TSR performance.Market condition based upon ranked total shareholder return. In these plans, award vesting is based upon a numerical ranking of the registrant’s TSR against the TSRs of a group of peer companies or all of the companies on a particular broad market or industry index. The numerical or percentile ranking then determines the modification factor that adjusts the size of the award.Each of the above plans has inputs and assumptions that drive the Monte Carlo simulation. When performing a subsequent year-end or vesting date fair value analysis, each of the grant-date assumptions will need to be reevaluated. For example, for a relative TSR plan with a three-year term, the subsequent year-end valuations will necessarily have shorter terms (2-year and 1-year), which will require new inputs for volatility and correlation factors. Shorter terms may make the use of option-implied volatility more relevant if sufficient market data is available. For relative TSR plans that reference a group of companies or an index, some of the peers may have been acquired or merged in the subsequent periods. The plan documentation will often describe the steps to be taken when the composition of the peer group changes or there is a change in the benchmark index. A different group (or number) of companies will affect the correlation assumption as well as the percentile calculations in a ranked plan. Regardless of the type of plan, it is important for registrants to understand how even a relatively simple award, if granted consistently for a period of years, can lead to a large number of Monte Carlo simulations for this initial proxy season and a significant amount of disclosure complexity. As shown in Figure 3 below, if a company has made annual PSU grants (with a market condition) for each of the last five years, then up to eight Monte Carlo valuations could be required to calculate the CAP in each period.Click here to expand the example aboveIn the example above, the blue boxes indicate when a valuation of prior grants would be necessary to calculate the change in fair value for each period of the CAP disclosure. For the final period of a relative TSR market condition plan, the company could use the actual market performance of its stock (and the comparative index) to calculate the expected value of the award.Registrants should understand that if equity awards have been granted on a consistent basis for a period of years, the new rules could require a large number of historical valuations for this initial proxy season and a significant amount of disclosure complexity.Summary and Next StepsWhile the new SEC Pay Versus Performance disclosure rules can seem daunting, they can be managed with proper planning and a systematic approach. For the CAP disclosures, registrants need to understand the details of all equity awards that have been awarded to named executive officers (how many and what type of award). The award characteristics will determine which valuation method is most appropriate and how many valuations need to be performed.If you have questions about the valuation techniques used for the various types of equity compensation awards or would like to discuss the process, please contact a Mercer Capital professional.
Bond Portfolio Update
Bond Portfolio Update
The U.S. bond market is undergoing its worst bear market in decades. Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Market Index produced a total return of negative 14.5% through September 30, 2022 and negative 16.0% through November 8, 2022. Excluding coupon income, the year-to-date loss was 17.2% which speaks to how low coupon income is given the nominal difference between price change and total return.Click here to expand the image aboveAs shown in the figure below, U.S. commercial banks have suffered unrealized losses in their bond portfolios equal to roughly 10% of the cost basis of both AFS and HTM classified portfolios as of September 30, which compares to a price reduction of 15.6% in the Barclay’s index as of quarter end.The less-worse performance by U.S. banks likely reflects less duration than the index, which has an effective duration of 6.25 years and weighted average maturity of 8.25 years. Our observation is that for the most part outsized losses among U.S. banks reflect an outsized position in municipals and/or MBS. The index composition is heavily skewed to U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Agency obligations given the heavy issuance of government backed debt the past 15 years or so.While management and directors at most banks are unhappy with their bond portfolios, institutional investors have taken a more nuanced view of the impact of rising rates based upon the tenor of third quarter earnings calls and the reaction of most stocks upon the release of earnings. Rising rates have supported bank earnings even though fixed-rate loan and bond portfolios are slow to reprice as floating-rate loans have repriced and banks have lagged deposit rates.Investor concern is more focused on liquidity risks. Some (or many) banks eventually may have to raise deposit rates sharply to stem outflows and/or fund loan growth because selling bonds is not a viable option given the magnitude of unrealized losses that if realized will reduce regulatory capital.Our prior commentary on bank bond portfolios following the release of the first and second quarter Call Reports can be found here and here.
Community Bank Loan Portfolios Have Unrealized Losses Too
Community Bank Loan Portfolios Have Unrealized Losses Too
Fixed income is undergoing one of the deepest bear markets in decades this year.There has been a lot of discussion surrounding the impact of rising rates on bank bond portfolios and bank stocks as rising rates have resulted in large unrealized losses in bank bond portfolios. My colleague, Jeff Davis, provides an update to his previous commentary on the topic based on third quarter Call Report data here.If subjected to mark-to-market accounting like the AFS securities portfolio, most bank loan portfolios would have sizable losses too given higher interest rates and wider credit spreads; however, unrealized “losses” in loan portfolios do not receive much attention because there is not an active market for most loans unlike most bonds that populate bank portfolios. Further, accounting standards do not mandate mark-to-market for loans other than those held-for-sale.While the trend in loan portfolio fair values is harder to examine given the lack of data, the following charts provide some perspective based on a survey of periodic loan portfolio valuations by Mercer Capital. To properly evaluate a subject loan portfolio, the portfolio should be evaluated on its own merits, but markets do provide perspective on where the cycle is and how this compares to historical levels.Fair value is guided by ASC 820 and defines value as the price received/paid by market participants in orderly transactions. It is a process that involves a number of assumptions about market conditions, loan portfolio segment cash flows inclusive of assumptions related to expected prepayments and expected credit losses, appropriate discount rates, and the like.The fair value mark on a subject loan portfolio includes two components – an interest rate mark and a credit mark. The interest rate mark is driven by the difference in the weighted average discount rate and weighted average interest rate of the subject portfolio. The discount rate that is applied to a subject loan should reflect a rate consistent with the expectations of market participants for cash flows with similar risk characteristics. The credit mark captures the risk that the borrower will default on payments and not all contractual cash flows will be collected.Since the end of 2021, rising market interest rates have been the predominant factor driving the change (i.e., reduction) in loan portfolio fair values. As shown in Figure 1, the median interest rate mark for our data sample has fallen from a modest 0.55% premium at December 31, 2021 to a 5.65% discount as of September 30, 2022. While bank earnings benefit from a higher rate environment and net interest margin expansion, it takes time for the increase in market rates to be passed on to customers via higher loan rates and for lower, fixed-rate loans to roll out of the portfolio. In talking with Mercer Capital clients and in our loan portfolio valuation practice, so far it seems that banks have been unable to fully pass on the increase in rates to loan customers.Figure 1: Trends in Interest Rate MarksClick here to expand the image aboveThe shift in the valuation adjustment attributable to interest rates reflects an increase in market interest rates.Figure 2 depicts the LIBOR forward curve at December 31, 2021, March 31, 2022, June 30, 2022, and September 30, 2022.Relative to December 31, 2021, forward LIBOR rates have increased 66 bps to 394 bps on average with the largest increases occurring for periods ranging from 1 to 12 months following the valuation date.Figure 2: LIBOR Forward CurveFigure 3 depicts the trend in the credit mark for our data sample relative to credit spreads. Credit spreads provide perspective on a number of factors, including where the credit cycle has been and where we may be headed.Figure 3: Trends in Credit MarksClick here to expand the image aboveOver the period shown in Figure 3, credit marks peaked at the start of the pandemic given the uncertainty and expectation of higher losses on loan portfolios. Credit marks trended down from the March 31, 2020 peak through the first quarter of 2022, as did banks’ loan loss provisions, as credit quality remained stable. While credit quality continues to remain strong, both credit spreads and credit marks have ticked up in 2022 with the weakening economic outlook and concerns that the Federal Reserve’s tightening interest rate policy may trigger a sharper downturn in economic activity.Mercer Capital has extensive experience in valuing loan portfolios and other financial assets and liabilities including depositor intangible assets, time deposits, and trust preferred securities. Please contact us if we can be of assistance.
Fairness Opinions for GP-Led Secondaries
Fairness Opinions for GP-Led Secondaries

A Good Practice Regardless of SEC Rulemaking

Although not mandated by law, fairness opinions for significant corporate transactions effectively have been required since 1985 when the Delaware Supreme Court ruled in Smith v. Van Gorkom, (Trans Union), (488 A. 2d Del. 1985) that directors were grossly negligent for approving a merger without sufficient inquiry. The Court suggested directors could have addressed their duty of care (informed decision making) by obtaining a fairness opinion.
The Truck Is Slowing
The Truck Is Slowing

Are We Running Out of Gas or Just Coasting?

Most experts agree that rates and demand for transportation services have been trending downward. There has been more disagreement about what that means, though – are we headed for a trucking recession, or are we simply coming down off our COVID-19 induced highs?
How Are Tech-Forward Banks Performing?
How Are Tech-Forward Banks Performing?
In the year-to-date period, the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has declined 22%, compared to a decline of 20% in the S&P 500 through October 27.Tech-forward banks have underperformed the broader banking sector, down 60% in the year-to-date period.1This is a reversal of the trend in 2021 when tech-forward banks outperformed the broader banking sector, logging a 70% increase compared to an increase of 35% in the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index.Figure 1 :: Year-To-Date Performance (Through October 27, 2022)Source: S&P Capital IQ Pro. Figure 2 :: 2021 PerformanceSource: S&P Capital IQ Pro. The tech-forward bank landscape encompasses a variety of business models but generally refers to banks utilizing technology or partnering with fintechs to deliver financial products or services.Banks that partner with fintechs are often referred to as providing “banking as a service (BaaS)”.This model involves an FDIC member bank offering bank products to fintech customers, for example, credit and debit cards or personal loans.The bank holds the deposits associated with the accounts and earns a fee based on a percentage of interchange income specified in an agreement negotiated with the fintech partner.Other models are focused on facilitating payments or providing financial services to a specific niche, such as cryptocurrency.While the largest banks have the resources to be at the forefront of technology adoption, many smaller banks have partnered with fintechs in recent years. This is due in part to the Durbin Amendment which places limits on interchange income for banks above $10 billion in assets.In many cases, the partnerships have accelerated growth and created new income streams for the bank partners.However, bank partners also face unique risks.As displayed in the market performance, tech-forward banks have been more volatile than traditional banks.Tech-forward bank performance has been moored, to some degree, to more volatile technology stocks, which explains the stock market outperformance in 2021 followed by a larger retrenchment in 2022.For a community bank pursuing a fintech partnership strategy, there are multiple considerations, including the following.Deposit GrowthMany fintech partner banks have continued growing deposits this year even though most banks have seen deposit growth stagnate or turn negative in the rising rate environment.An analysis performed by S&P Global Market Intelligence showed that fintech partner banks with assets between $1 billion and $3 billion experienced deposit growth of 15% (annualized) in the first half of 2022.This compares to deposit growth of 3% for commercial banks in the same asset size range.The deposits generated from fintech partnerships are often noninterest bearing accounts, which are especially valuable in the currentrising rate environment. Bank partners earn spread income from the deposits, often holding them at the Federal Reserve due to their volatility and uncertain duration. Balances at the Fed reprice immediately with changes to the Fed’s benchmark rate.Noninterest IncomeThe largest impact on the revenue side typically shows up in noninterest income.Fintech partner banks tend to have a higher ratio of noninterest income to total income relative to traditional banks as they earn a share of the interchange income.In a period of flat or declining interest rates, this diversification of revenue can help to offset net interest margin compression.For the tech-forward banks included in Figure 1 and 2, the median ratio of noninterest income to operating revenue was 29% in the trailing twelve month period.Concentration RiskWhile fintech partnerships can be a source of growth, bank partners should be cautious about revenue or deposit concentrations. Fintechs can grow rapidly, and, as a result, a bank partner may develop a concentration within their deposit base or revenues.Banks must periodically renegotiate contracts with fintech partners, and there is a risk that the fintech will find another bank partner or demand more favorable terms.This single event could eliminate a major source of deposits or reduce noninterest income, causing a much greater impact than the ordinary loss of traditional bank customers.For example, Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) provides the Walmart MoneyCard product and offers other deposit account products at Walmart. Green Dot’s second quarter 10-Q discloses that approximately 21% of its operating revenue in the year-to-date period was derived from products and services sold at Walmart locations.Regulatory RiskRegulators have stepped up their scrutiny of bank-fintech partnerships this year, focusing on risk management controls.Many banks partnering with fintechs have less than $10 billion in assets, and banks that do not currently serve fintechs may not have the necessary compliance infrastructure to effectively manage potential fintech relationships. Compliance capability must be built over a long period of time and serves as somewhat of a barrier to entry for banks desiring to pursue this strategy.Additionally, certain fintech partnerships may present an added element of risk as the bank could be impacted by the regulatory and compliance practices of the fintechs or the evolving regulatory/compliance landscape.One recent example of this risk arose in the crypto fintech niche as the FDIC released an order to a crypto brokerage firm demanding that it cease and desist from making false and misleading statements about its deposit insurance status, while the FDIC contemporaneously issued an advisory to insured institutions regarding FDIC deposit insurance and dealings with crypto companies.2Valuation & PerformanceBank stocks’ underperformance in 2022 has largely been attributed to economic uncertainty and the potential for recession brought on by the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. Fintech partner banks have been more volatile than the broader banking market.The business models entail certain risks, as detailed above, that do not pertain to traditional banks to the same degree.In addition, the earnings from fintech partnerships are less predictable and potentially further out in the future.As seen in figure 3, the range of valuation multiples observed for tech forward banks is wide, with forward P/Es ranging from 6.6x to 16.1x but most trade at 7x to 9x estimated 2023 earnings.It is important to note that the banks included in the table above represent a variety of sizes, strategies and niches, so comparability may be somewhat limited.Tangible book multiples likewise exhibit a wide range, but in general are high relative to the broader banking sector.In valuing fintech partner banks, investors weigh the growth potential provided by the partnership versus the risk that earnings growth does not materialize.Figure 3 :: Multiples and Price Change of Tech-Forward BanksClick here to expand the image aboveConclusionMercer Capital has experience valuing and advising both banks and fintechs.If you are considering partnership opportunities or have questions regarding their valuation implications, please contact us.1Tech-forward banks include AX, CCB, GDOT, LC, LOB, MVBF, CASH, SI, SIVB, TBBK, and TBK.Year-to-date performance through 10/27/222https://www.arnoldporter.com/en/perspectives/advisories/2022/08/regulators-crack-down-on-fintechs
Five Trends to Watch in the Medical Device Industry: 2022 Update
Five Trends to Watch in the Medical Device Industry: 2022 Update
Medical Devices OverviewThe medical device manufacturing industry produces equipment designed to diagnose and treat patients within global healthcare systems.Medical devices range from simple tongue depressors and bandages to complex programmable pacemakers and sophisticated imaging systems.Major product categories include surgical implants and instruments, medical supplies, electro-medical equipment, in-vitro diagnostic equipment and reagents, irradiation apparatuses, and dental goods.The following outlines five structural factors and trends that influence demand and supply of medical devices and related procedures.1. DemographicsThe aging population, driven by declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, represents a major demand driver for medical devices.The U.S. elderly population (persons aged 65 and above) totaled 40.3 million in 2021 (13% of the population). The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the elderly will more than double by 2060 to 95 million, representing 23% of the total population.The elderly account for nearly one third of total healthcare consumption in the U.S.Personal healthcare spending for the population segment was approximately $19,000 per person in 2014, five times the spending per child (about $3,700) and almost triple the spending per working-age person (about $7,200).According to United Nations projections, the global elderly population will rise from approximately 608 million (8.2% of world population) in 2015 to 1.8 billion (17.8% of world population) in 2060.Europe’s elderly are projected to reach approximately 29% of the population by 2060, making it the world’s oldest region.While Latin America and Asia are currently relatively young, these regions are expected to undergo drastic transformations over the next several decades, with the elderly population expected to expand from approximately 8% in 2015 to more than 21% of the total population by 2060.2. Healthcare Spending and the Legislative Landscape in the U.S.Demographic shifts underlie the expected growth in total U.S. healthcare expenditure from $4.1 trillion in 2020 to $6.2 trillion in 2028, an average annual growth rate of 5.4%.This projected average annual growth rate is faster than the observed rate of 3.9% between 2009 and 2018. Projected growth in annual spending for Medicare (4.3%) and Medicaid (5.6%) is expected to contribute substantially to the increase in national health expenditure over the coming decade.However, growth in national healthcare spendinghas slowed in 2021 to 4.2%, down from 9.7% in 2020. Healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP is expected to remain virtually unchanged from 19.7% in 2020 to 19.6% by 2030.Since inception, Medicare has accounted for an increasing proportion of total U.S. healthcare expenditures.Medicare currently provides healthcare benefits for an estimated 60 million elderly and disabled people, constituting approximately 15% of the federal budget in 2018 and is expected to rise to 18% by 2028.Medicare represents the largest portion of total healthcare costs, constituting 20% of total health spending in 2020.Medicare also accounts for 25% of hospital spending, 30% of retail prescription drugs sales, and 23% of physician services.Due to the growing influence of Medicare in aggregate healthcare consumption, legislative developments can have a potentially outsized effect on the demand and pricing for medical products and services.Net mandatory benefit outlays (gross outlays less offsetting receipts) to Medicare totaled $776 billion in 2020 and are expected to reach $1.5 trillion by 2030.The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“ACA”) of 2010 incorporated changes that are expected to constrain annual growth in Medicare spending over the next several decades, including reductions in Medicare payments to plans and providers, increased revenues, and new delivery system reforms that aim to improve efficiency and quality of patient care and reduce costs.While political debate centered around altering the ACA has been a continuous fixture in American politics since its passing, it is unlikely that material reform to the ACA occurs in the near future under the Biden Administration.Total Medicare spending is projected to grow at 5.6% annually between 2025 and 2030, compared to year over year growth of 11.3% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2020.3. Third-Party Coverage and ReimbursementThe primary customers of medical device companies are physicians (and/or product approval committees at their hospitals), who select the appropriate equipment for consumers (patients).In most developed economies, the consumers themselves are one (or more) step removed from interactions with manufacturers, and therefore pricing of medical devices.Device manufacturers ultimately receive payments from insurers, who usually reimburse healthcare providers for routine procedures (rather than for specific components like the devices used).Accordingly, medical device purchasing decisions tend to be largely disconnected from price. Third-party payors (both private and government programs) are keen to reevaluate their payment policies to constrain rising healthcare costs.Several elements of the ACA are expected to limit reimbursement growth for hospitals, which form the largest market for medical devices.Lower reimbursement growth will likely persuade hospitals to scrutinize medical purchases by adopting i) higher standards to evaluate the benefits of new procedures and devices, and ii) a more disciplined price bargaining stance.The transition of the healthcare delivery paradigm from fee-for-service (FFS) to value models is expected to lead to fewer hospital admissions and procedures, given the focus on cost-cutting and efficiency.In 2015, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced goals to have 85% and 90% of all Medicare payments tied to quality or value by 2016 and 2018, respectively, and 30% and 50% of total Medicare payments tied to alternative payment models (APM) by the end of 2016 and 2018, respectively.A report issued by the Health Care Payment Learning & Action Network (LAN), a public-private partnership launched in March 2015 by HHS, found that 35.8% of payments were tied to Category 3 and 4 APMs in 2018, compared to 32.8% in 2017.In 2020, CMS released guidance for states on how to advance value-based care across their healthcare systems, emphasizing Medicaid populations, and to share pathways for adoption of such approaches. Ultimately, lower reimbursement rates and reduced procedure volume will likely limit pricing gains for medical devices and equipment.The medical device industry faces similar reimbursement issues globally, as the EU and other jurisdictions face similar increasing healthcare costs.A number of countries have instituted price ceilings on certain medical procedures, which could deflate the reimbursement rates of third-party payors, forcing down product prices.Industry participants are required to report manufacturing costs, and medical device reimbursement rates are set potentially below those figures in certain major markets like Germany, France, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, China, and Brazil.Whether third-party payors consider certain devices medically reasonable or necessary for operations presents a hurdle that device makers and manufacturers must overcome in bringing their devices to market.4. Competitive Factors and Regulatory RegimeHistorically, much of the growth of medical technology companies has been predicated on continual product innovations that make devices easier for doctors to use and improve health outcomes for the patients.Successful product development usually requires significant R&D outlays and a measure of luck.If viable, new devices can elevate average selling prices, market penetration, and market share.Government regulations curb competition in two ways to foster an environment where firms may realize an acceptable level of returns on their R&D investments.First, firms that are first to the market with a new product can benefit from patents and intellectual property protection giving them a competitive advantage for a finite period.Second, regulations govern medical device design and development, preclinical and clinical testing, premarket clearance or approval, registration and listing, manufacturing, labeling, storage, advertising and promotions, sales and distribution, export and import, and post market surveillance.Regulatory Overview in the U.S.In the U.S., the FDA generally oversees the implementation of the second set of regulations.Some relatively simple devices deemed to pose low risk are exempt from the FDA’s clearance requirement and can be marketed in the US without prior authorization.For the remaining devices, commercial distribution requires marketing authorization from the FDA, which comes in primarily two flavors.The premarket notification (“510(k) clearance”) process requires the manufacturer to demonstrate that a device is “substantially equivalent” to an existing device (“predicate device”) that is legally marketed in the U.S.The 510(k) clearance process may occasionally require clinical data and generally takes between 90 days and one year for completion.In November 2018, the FDA announced plans to change elements of the 510(k) clearance process.Specifically, the FDA plan includes measures to encourage device manufacturers to use predicate devices that have been on the market for no more than 10 years.In early 2019, the FDA announced an alternative 510(k) program to allow medical devices an easier approval process for manufacturers of certain “well-understood device types” to demonstrate substantial equivalence through objective safety and performance criteria. The plans materialized as the Abbreviated 510(k) Program later in the year.The premarket approval (“PMA”) process is more stringent, time-consuming, and expensive.A PMA application must be supported by valid scientific evidence, which typically entails collection of extensive technical, preclinical, clinical, and manufacturing data.Once the PMA is submitted and found to be complete, the FDA begins an in-depth review, which is required by statute to take no longer than 180 days.However, the process typically takes significantly longer and may require several years to complete.Pursuant to the Medical Device User Fee Modernization Act (MDUFA), the FDA collects user fees for the review of devices for marketing clearance or approval.The current iteration of the Medical Device User Fee Act (MDUFA IV) came into effect in October 2017. Under MDUFA IV, the FDA is authorized to collect almost $1 billion in user fees, an increase of more than $320 million over MDUFA III, between 2017 and 2022. Intended to begin in 2020, negotiations for MDUFA V were delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The FDA and industry groups reached a deal for MDUFA V, slated to go into effect beginning fiscal 2023, which would generate up to $1.9 billion in fees to the agency over five years. The U.S. House of Representatives passed MDUFA V in June 2022 and the Senate is expected to follow suit by September 2022.Regulatory Overview Outside the U.S.The European Union (EU), along with countries such as Japan, Canada, and Australia all operate strict regulatory regimes similar to that of the FDA, and international consensus is moving towards more stringent regulations.Stricter regulations for new devices may slow release dates and may negatively affect companies within the industry.Medical device manufacturers face a single regulatory body across the EU. In order for a medical device to be allowed on the market, it must meet the requirements set by the EU Medical Devices Directive.Devices must receive a Conformité Européenne (CE) Mark certificate before they are allowed to be sold in that market.This CE marking verifies that a device meets all regulatory requirements, including EU safety standards.A set of different directives apply to different types of devices, potentially increasing the complexity and cost of compliance.5. Emerging Global MarketsEmerging economies are claiming a growing share of global healthcare consumption, including medical devices and related procedures, owing to relative economic prosperity, growing medical awareness, and increasing (and increasingly aging) populations. According to the WHO, middle income countries, such as Russia, China, Turkey, and Peru, among others, are rapidly converging towards outsized levels of spending as their incomes increase.When countries grow richer, the demand for health care increases along with people’s expectation for government financed healthcare.Middle income country share, the fastest growing economic sector, increased from 15% to 19% of global spending between 2000 and 2017.As global health expenditure continues to increase, sales to countries outside the U.S. represent a potential avenue for growth for domestic medical device companies.According to the World Bank, all regions (except Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia) have seen an increase in healthcare spending as a percentage of total output over the last two decades.Global medical device sales are estimated to increase 5.4% annually from 2021 to 2028, reaching nearly $658 billion according to data from Fortune Business Insights.While the Americas are projected to remain the world’s largest medical device market, the Asia Pacific and Western Europe markets are expected to expand at a quicker pace over the next several years.SummaryDemographic shifts underlie the long-term market opportunity for medical device manufacturers.While efforts to control costs on the part of the government insurer in the U.S. may limit future pricing growth for incumbent products, a growing global market provides domestic device manufacturers with an opportunity to broaden and diversify their geographic revenue base.Developing new products and procedures is risky and usually more resource intensive compared to some other growth sectors of the economy.However, barriers to entry in the form of existing regulations provide a measure of relief from competition, especially for newly developed products.
2022 Core Deposit Intangibles Update
2022 Core Deposit Intangibles Update
On September 21, 2022, the Federal Reserve increased the target federal funds rate by 75 basis points, capping off a collective increase of 300 basis points since March 2022. With the expectation of additional rate increases this year, it’s a good time to evaluate recent trends in core deposit values and discuss expectations for deposit valuations in the coming months.Mercer Capital previously published articles on core deposit trends in August 2020 during the early stages of the pandemic and again in August 2021. In those articles, we described a decreasing trend in core deposit intangible asset values. In response to the pandemic, the Fed cut rates effectively to zero, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury reached a record low. While many factors are pertinent to analyzing a deposit base, a significant driver of value is market interest rates. As shown below, we find ourselves in a very different interest rate environment today.Figure 1 :: U.S. Treasury Yield CurveTrends In CDI ValuesUsing data compiled by S&P Capital IQ Pro, we analyzed trends in core deposit intangible (CDI) assets recorded in whole bank acquisitions completed from 2000 through mid-September 2022. CDI values represent the value of the depository customer relationships recorded by acquirers as an intangible asset. CDI values are driven by many factors, including the “stickiness” of a customer base, the types of deposit accounts assumed, the level of noninterest income generated, and the cost of the acquired deposit base compared to alternative sources of funding. For our analysis of industry trends in CDI values, we relied on S&P Capital IQ Pro’s definition of core deposits.1In analyzing core deposit intangible assets for individual acquisitions, however, a more detailed analysis of the deposit base would consider the relative stability of various account types. In general, CDI assets derive most of their value from lower-cost demand deposit accounts, while often significantly less (if not zero) value is ascribed to more rate-sensitive time deposits and public funds. Non-retail funding sources such as listing service or brokered deposits are excluded from core deposits when determining the value of a CDI.Figure 2 summarizes the trend in CDI values since the start of the 2008 recession, compared with rates on 5-year FHLB advances. Over the post-recession period, CDI values have largely followed the general trend in interest rates—as alternative funding recorded by acquirers became more costly in 2017 and 2018, CDI values generally ticked up as well, relative to post-recession average levels. Throughout 2019, CDI values exhibited a declining trend in light of yield curve inversion and Fed cuts to the target federal funds rate during the back half of 2019. This trend accelerated in March 2020 when rates were effectively cut to zero.Figure 2 :: CDI as % of Acquired Core DepositsClick here to expand the image aboveCDI values have showed some recovery in the past few quarters (with an average CDI value of 93 basis points year-to-date in 2022 as compared to 64 basis points for all of 2021). Despite the recent uptick, CDI values remain below the post-recession average of 1.29% in the period presented in the chart and meaningfully lower than long-term historical levels which averaged closer to 2.5% to 3.0% in the early 2000s. They are also markedly lower than one might expect, given the current cost of wholesale funding.As shown above, reported CDI values have not increased in tandem with the recent increase in FHLB rates. The average CDI value increased just 25 basis points from September 2021 to September 2022, while the five-year FHLB advance increased a dramatic 228 basis points over the same period. In late-2018 the 5-year FHLB rate approximated the current, mid-September 2022 level, but the average CDI value at that time was 2.42% (compared to the third quarter 2022 average value of 0.75%). The CDI values in recent quarters are somewhat counterintuitive. There are likely three drivers for the relationship between recently reported CDI values and market interest rates:Reporting time lag. The increase in the 5-year FHLB rate has occurred rapidly over the past few months. The deals that closed in the second and third quarters of 2022 were announced in an extremely low interest rate environment. Following third quarter 2022 filings, we expect some upward migration in CDI values to occur as recently announced deals are completed, which reflect the Federal Reserve’s recent rate actions.Deposit levels. Since the beginning of the pandemic, banks have been inundated with deposits. It was initially expected that the increase in deposits would be transient in nature as the economy re-opened, PPP funds were spent or invested, and consumer confidence improved. However, deposit growth continued through 2021 for nearly all banks and into 2022 for some banks. The growth rate in deposit balances is slowing, and September 2022 balances ($17.95 trillion) were lower than August 2022 balances ($18.0 trillion). Given the low average loan-to-deposit ratios, banks have not been in a hurry to increase deposit rates. With the excess of deposits, there may have been a tendency for bank acquirers to discount core deposit value given the lack of immediate funding needs or concern that, with higher market rates, the long anticipated reversal of the pandemic-related deposit influx may finally occur.Uncertain Rate Outlook. While rates are expected to continue rising in the near-term, some market participants may remain concerned that a zero rate environment will remain the long-term norm. If this view is correct, which implicitly assumes that the Federal Reserve can choke inflation, CDI values will remain constrained. Nineteen deals were announced in August and September 2022, and five of those deals provided either investor presentations or earnings calls containing CDI estimates. These CDI estimates ranged from 1.5% to 2.0%, which is more in line with the numbers we have observed in our valuation analyses. We expect CDI values to continue rising in concert with market interest rates. However, market interest rates are not the only driver of CDI value, and there are some potentially mitigating factors to CDI values in the near term.Deposit levels. Over the past year, consumers were likely hesitant to go to the trouble of seeking higher interest rates as the marginal benefit of a rate enhancement would have been low in comparison to the necessary expenditure of effort. This inertia is not expected to last indefinitely. There is already evidence that excess deposit balances are beginning to exit the system. Higher attrition rates, all else equal, translate into a lower CDI value.Deposit mix. Over the past decade, nationwide average deposit mix has shifted in favor of noninterest bearing deposits. In 2007, retail time deposits constituted an average of 31% of financial institution deposits with noninterest bearing deposits comprising 16%. In 2022, this mix is nearly reversed (28% of balances in noninterest-bearing accounts and 15% in retail time deposits). As banks face increasing interest rate pressure, the deposit mix is likely to begin shifting in favor of interest-bearing deposits that have lower CDI values. Figure 3 :: Deposit Mix OvertimeService charge income. The industry is facing pressure from regulators and the public to reduce overdraft charges and other fees. Lower service charge income produces lower CDI values, all else equal.Deposit interest rate betas. Historical average deposit betas may be insufficient to forecast future deposit interest rates over the life of an acquired deposit base. For example, deposit betas for money market accounts have historically averaged approximately 50%. At September 23, 2022 the national average money market rate was 0.15%. A 50% beta may not be aggressive enough to yield a reasonable ongoing interest rate for an acquired deposit base with a starting interest rate of 0.15%. Using an inappropriately low beta would artificially enhance core deposit value by understating future interest rates on the acquired deposit base.Trends In Deposit Premiums Relative To CDI Asset ValuesCore deposit intangible assets are related to, but not identical to, deposit premiums paid in acquisitions. While CDI assets are an intangible asset recorded in acquisitions to capture the value of the customer relationships the deposits represent, deposit premiums paid are a function of the purchase price of an acquisition.Deposit premiums in whole bank acquisitions are computed based on the excess of the purchase price over the target’s tangible book value, as a percentage of the core deposit base. While deposit premiums often capture the value to the acquirer of assuming the established funding source of the core deposit base (that is, the value of the deposit franchise), the purchase price also reflects factors unrelated to the deposit base, such as the quality of the acquired loan portfolio, unique synergy opportunities anticipated by the acquirer, etc. As shown in Figure 4, deposit premiums paid in whole bank acquisitions have shown more volatility than CDI values. Deposit premiums in the range of 6% to 10% remain well below the pre-Great Recession levels when premiums for whole bank acquisitions averaged closer to 20%.Additional factors may influence the purchase price to an extent that the calculated deposit premium doesn’t necessarily bear a strong relationship to the value of the core deposit base to the acquirer. This influence is often less relevant in branch transactions where the deposit base is the primary driver of the transaction and the relationship between the purchase price and the deposit base is more direct. Figure 5 (on the next page) presents deposit premiums paid in whole bank acquisitions as compared to premiums paid in branch transactions.Deposit premiums paid in branch transactions have generally been less volatile than tangible book value premiums paid in whole bank acquisitions. Branch transaction deposit premiums averaged in the 3.0% to 7.5% range during 2020, up from the 2.0% to 4.0% range observed in the financial crisis. During 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, branch transaction deposit premiums averaged 2.5% to 5.25%. Unfortunately, none of the branch transactions completed in the second or third quarters of 2022 reported franchise premium data.Figure 4 :: CDI Recorded vs. Deposit Premiums PaidFigure 5 :: Average Deposit Premiums PaidClick here to expand the image aboveSome disconnect appears to exist between the prices paid in branch transactions and the CDI values recorded in bank M&A transactions. Beyond the relatively small sample size of branch transactions, one explanation might be the excess capital that continues to accumulate in the banking industry, resulting in strong bidding activity for the M&A opportunities that arise–even in situations where the potential buyers have ample deposits.Accounting For CDI AssetsBased on the data for acquisitions for which core deposit intangible detail was reported, a majority of banks selected a ten-year amortization term for the CDI values booked. Less than 10% of transactions for which data was available selected amortization terms longer than ten years. Amortization methods were somewhat more varied, but an accelerated amortization method was selected in approximately half of these transactions.Figure 6 :: Selected Amortization Term (Years)Transactions Completed 2008 - September 25, 2022Figure 7 :: Selected Amortization Method For more information about Mercer Capital’s core deposit valuation services, please contact a member of our Depository Institution Services Team. 1 S&P Capital IQ Pro defines core deposits as, “Deposits in U.S. offices excluding time deposits over $250,000 and brokered deposits of $250,000 or less.”
NIB Deposits Anesthetize Bond Pain
NIB Deposits Anesthetize Bond Pain
The August Bank Watch looks at unrealized losses in bank bond portfolios based upon Call Report data as of June 30, 2022. Our review of unrealized losses as of March 31 can be found here.Fed Chair Powell gave a short 8-minute speech on August 26 at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming economic summit that is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The gist of Powell’s speech is that the Fed is solely focused on reducing inflation. Powell’s speech in 2021 discussed “transitory” inflation and the timing of when the Fed might begin to reduce its monthly purchase of $120 billion of U.S. Treasuries (“UST”) and Agency MBS. At the time consumer prices were then advancing around 5% vs 9% now.Last year, equity markets liked what it heard from Powell at Jackson Hole regarding the liquidity spigot; not so this year as the S&P 500 declined 3.4% and the NASDAQ declined 3.9% the day Powell spoke. The NASDAQ Bank Index declined 2.4% and is down 12.8% year-to-date through August 26.Interestingly, UST yields did not move much even though Powell said it would not be appropriate to stop hiking at a “neutral” rate. As such, bank bond portfolios did not incur additional losses. In fact, the peak loss for most bank bond portfolios was in mid-June when the yield on the 10-year UST rose to 3.49% compared to 2.98% on June 30 and 3.04% on August 26.Based upon our review of bank second quarter earnings calls and analysts’ write-ups, investors seem to be taking the losses in stride given solid growth in spread revenues as NIM expansion has been dramatic. Last spring that was not the case when the ~150bps increase in intermediate- and long-term rates produced significant losses in bond portfolios given little coupon to cushion the higher term structure.As shown in Figure 1, the Fed has hiked the Funds target rate much faster and by a greater magnitude than it did in 1994 when the Fed waylaid the bond market with 300bps of hikes. Bond portfolios were hammered as the hikes and an upturn in inflation drove longer-term rates higher by ~275bps. The curve became flatter but never inverted as investors assumed a recession would not develop.1Figure 1: 1994 Bond Bear Market vs 2022 Bond Bear Market Powell’s comments last week imply short-term policy rates may go as high as 4% by next Spring based upon futures markets. Given little movement in UST yields, bond investors are pricing in slowing economic activity and possibly lower yields to come. If so, the inverted UST curve prospectively will become more inverted if the Powell Fed can stomach the seemingly probable fallout as it pushes short rates higher. Figure 2: Unrealized Bond Portfolio Losses vs Cost Basis and Tier 1 CapitalClick here to enlarge the image aboveFigure 3: Unrealized Bond Portfolio Losses vs Cost Basis and Tier 1 CapitalClick here to enlarge the image aboveAs shown in Figure 2, unrealized losses as of June 30 were significant though losses and gains are excluded from regulatory capital for all but the largest banks.Unrealized losses in available-for-sale (“AFS”) designated portfolios ranged from an average of 5.7% of cost for banks with less than $100 million of assets to 8.0% for banks with $1 billion to $3 billion of assets. As a percent of tier one capital the range was from 11.3% for banks with $100 billion to $250 billion of assets to 22.5% for banks with $100 million to $500 million of assets.Figure 3 provides the same data as of year-end 1994 when the ten-year UST was near a cyclical peak of ~8%. The bear market of 2022 is far worse than the 1994 bear market. Unlike 1994, portfolios today have little coupon to cushion the impact of rising rates. Also, duration may be longer today.The “coupon issue” today is reflected in low portfolio yields. As an example, the average taxable equivalent portfolio yield for banks with $1 billion to $3 billion of assets was only 1.96% in 2Q22 compared to 1.80% in 4Q21 immediately before the Fed began to hike. By way of comparison, the yield on one-month T-bills as of August 26 was 2.21% and 30-day LIBOR was 2.49%. Cash yields more than bond portfolios and prospectively will yield much more if the Fed pushes the Funds target to 4% by next spring.The good news is that portfolio cash flow should be reinvested at much higher yields to the extent it is not used to fund loan growth or deposit run-off. The same applies to fixed rate loans, which are not marked-to-market but may have comparable losses given both higher rates and wider credit spreads.The exceptionally good news is that non-interest-bearing (“NIB”) deposits, which are the core of core deposits, are driving NIM expansion and growth in spread revenues. Rate hikes this year are inflating the value of NIB deposits. There is no mark-to-market report for a board to see this; rather, the value is in the income statement.The unknowable question is if the Fed can push short-term rates higher without producing a sharp downturn or serious credit event that forces the Fed to blink again. The downturn in bank stocks this year primarily reflects investor expectations about the potential impact a recession would have on credit costs next year; it is not about unrealized losses in bond portfolios. Figure 4: Credit Spreads WidenClick here to enlarge the image aboveAbout Mercer CapitalMercer Capital is a national valuation and transaction advisory firm that has advised banks for 40 years through bear and bull markets. Please call if we can be of assistance.1 The Fed rate hiking campaigns of 2004-2006 (425bps of cumulative hikes to 5.25%) and 2015-2018 (225bps to 2.50%) did not produce as great of losses as the current cycle and 1994. The curve was exceptionally steep in 2004 such that long-term UST rates rose less than 100 bps (Greenspan called it a “conundrum”) while it took a couple of years for long-term yields to peak in 2018 around 3% vs the “all-at-once” episode this year.
The Importance of Purchase Price Allocations to Acquirers (1)
The Importance of Purchase Price Allocations to Acquirers
This is the final article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. If you wish to read the rest of the series, click here. Growing up an avid sports fan, I always enjoyed picking up the paper and flipping to the sports section to see the box scores from the prior day’s games. While the headline score told you who won or lost, the box score gave more information and insights into who played well and the narrative of the game. For example, the box score might tell you that even though your favorite team won, they were dominated by the other team in all the categories except turnovers, or that the team that lost actually “won” each quarter except the fourth and their star player had a bad game. In my view, a purchase price allocation is similar to a box score in that it provides greater detail from which to derive insights on a particular transaction. While a purchase price allocation (PPA) analysis is primarily an accounting (and compliance driven) exercise, it is also a window into the objectives and motivations behind the transaction. When used proactively and/or during the M&A process, the disciplines of PPA analysis can provide buyers with important perspective concerning the unique value attributes of the target’s intangible asset base, which can help rationalize strategic acquisition consideration or forewarn of potentially unstable or short-lived intangible asset value. Below we explore PPAs further with a broad overview and then a deeper look into the pitfalls and best practices related to them.Introduction to PPAsAcquirers conduct PPAs to measure the fair value of various tangible and intangible assets of the acquired business. Any excess of the total asset value implied by the transaction over the fair values of identified assets is ascribed to the residual asset, goodwill.Intangible assets commonly identified and measured as part of PPA analyses include:Trade name - Trade name intangibles may be valuable if they enhance the expected future cash flows of the firm, either through higher revenue or superior margins. The relief from royalty method, which seeks to simulate cost savings due to the ownership of the name, is frequently used to measure the value of trade names.Customer relationships - Customer relationships can be valuable because of the expectation of recurring revenue.Technology - Technologies developed by the target business are valuable because the acquirer avoids associated development or acquisition costs. Patents and other forms of intellectual property may provide legal protection from competition and help secure uniqueness and/or differentiation.IPR&D - Ongoing R&D projects can give rise to in-process research and development intangible assets, whose values are predicated on expected future cash flows.Contractual assets - Contracts that lock in pricing advantages – above market sales prices or below market costs – create value by enhancing cash flow.Employment / Non-competition agreements - Employment and non-competition agreements with key executives ensure a smooth transition following an M&A transaction, which can be vital in reducing the likelihood of employee or customer defection. The value of an enterprise is often greater than the sum of its identified parts (both tangible and intangible), and the excess is usually reflected in the residual asset, goodwill. GAAP goodwill also captures facets of the target that may be value-accretive, but do not meet certain criteria to be identified as an intangible asset. Notably, fair value measurement presumes a market participant perspective. Goodwill may also include acquirer-specific synergistic or strategic considerations that are not available to other market participants. Consequently, goodwill has tended to account for a significant portion of allocated value in truly strategic business combinations.Pitfalls and Best Practices of PPAsBelow we highlight some pitfalls and best practices gleaned from providing purchase price allocations to acquirers since the advent of fair value accounting.What are some of the pitfalls in purchase price allocations?Sometimes differences arise between expectations or estimates prior to the transaction and fair value measurements performed after the transaction. An example is contingent consideration arrangements – estimates from the deal team’s calculations could vary from the fair value of the corresponding liability measured and reported for GAAP purposes. To the extent amortization estimates are prepared prior to the transaction, any variance in the allocation of total transaction value to amortizable intangible assets and non-amortized, indefinite lived assets – be they identifiable intangible assets or goodwill – could also lead to different future EPS estimates for the acquirer.What are the benefits of looking at the allocation process early?The opportunity to think through and talk about some of the unusual elements of the more involved transactions can be enormously helpful. Similar to a coach who may look at the box score from the first half of a game during the halftime break, we view the dialogue we have with clients when we prepare a preliminary PPA estimate prior to closing as a particularly important part of the M&A project. This deliberative process results in a more robust – well-reasoned analysis that is easier for the external auditors to review, and better stands the test of time requiring fewer true-ups or other adjustments in the future. Surprises are difficult to eliminate, but as they say, forewarned is forearmed.Can goodwill be broken into different components?If so, what are the different components and how are they delineated?In the world of FASB, goodwill is not delineated into personal goodwill and corporate or enterprise goodwill. However, in the tax world, this distinction can be of critical importance and can create significant savings to the sellers of a C corporation business.Many sellers prefer that a transaction be structured as a stock sale, rather than an asset sale, thereby avoiding a built in gains issue and its related tax liability. Buyers want to do the opposite for a variety of reasons. When a C corporation’s assets are sold, the shareholders must realize the gain and face the issue of double taxation whereby the gain is taxed at both the corporate level, and again at the individual level when proceeds are distributed to the shareholders. Proceeds that can be allocated to the sale of a personal asset, such as personal goodwill, may mitigate the double taxation issue.The Internal Revenue Service defines goodwill as “the value of a trade or business based on expected continued customer patronage due to its name, reputation, or any other factor.”1 Recent Tax Court decisions have recognized a distinction between the goodwill of a business itself and the goodwill attributable to the owners/professionals of that business. This second type is typically referred to as personal (or professional) goodwill (a term used interchangeably in tax cases).Personal goodwill differs from enterprise goodwill in that personal goodwill represents the value stemming from an individual’s personal service to that business, and is an asset owned by the individual, not the business itself. This value would encompass an individual’s professional reputation, personal relationships with customers or suppliers, technical expertise, or other distinctly personal abilities which provide economic benefit to a business. This economic benefit is in excess of any normal return earned on other tangible or intangible assets of the company.What other problems/issues beyond a PPA can you help acquirers navigate?As part of our full suite of services for acquirers, we can handle a number of different kinds of special projects that corporate finance departments may be looking to outsource, completely or partially. For example, our firm helps clients think through certain financial or strategic questions – what level of cash flow reinvestment will best balance competing shareholder interests? Or, what is the appropriate hurdle rate when evaluating internal projects vs. acquisitions for capital budgeting exercises? In other instances, we perform financial due diligence and quality of earnings analyses for transactions.ConclusionAs the “box score” of transactions, PPAs can be an important tool for acquirers and provide greater insight into the motivations and narrative behind a transaction by illustrating the value of various intangible components of a business beyond the collection of tangible assets and how those compare to the purchase price being paid. Our purchase price allocations can be more robust with fewer surprises when we have also worked with the clients before the close of the transaction on elements such as financial due diligence or contingent consideration estimates, or even broader corporate finance and PPA studies.Mercer Capital has extensive experience valuing intangible assets for purchase price allocations (ASC 805), impairment testing (ASC 350), and fresh-start accounting (ASC 852) and assisting buyers during financial due diligence. Call us – we would like to help.1 IRS Publication 535: Business Expenses, Ch. 9, Cat. No. 15065Z
The Importance of Purchase Price Allocations to Acquirers
The Importance of Purchase Price Allocations to Acquirers
In this article we provide a broad overview of PPAs and then a deeper look into the pitfalls and best practices related to them.
Buy-Side Solvency Opinions
Buy-Side Solvency Opinions
n this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. s
BuySide Solvency Opinions
Buy-Side Solvency Opinions
Not only is a solvency opinion a prudent tool for board members and other stakeholders, but the framework of solvency analysis is ready made to score strategic alternatives and facilitate capital deployment.
Strategic Benefits of Stress Testing in an Uncertain Economic Environment
Strategic Benefits of Stress Testing in an Uncertain Economic Environment
Having gone on many a camping trip over the years, the only consistency between these trips into the woods is that there is no consistency. While some trips might have beautiful weather, others might be plagued with storms, cold fronts, heat waves, or strong winds. The campsite may or may not have amenities. And most importantly, contending with the wildlife adds another variable that can’t be predicted. However, the key element of how the trip goes is how prepared we are. The trips where we assumed blue skies were by far the most stressful. If we prepared for different outcomes and weather based on the uncertainty of going into the woods, the trip could always be salvaged.Banks and credit unions are currently facing a similar “into the woods” predicament, as the economic environment seems to grow more volatile and contradictory day by day. While hiring remains strong and unemployment continues to stay near historically low levels with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting 3.6% as of June 2022, other indicators are flashing warning signs.Inflation concerns continues to plague the economy after accelerating to 9.1% in June 2022, the highest increase since November 1981. Drivers of inflation in the past several months include rising food and gas prices as global supply remains disrupted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the remnants of the pandemic. Economists are taking notice, with nearly 70% of economists surveyed by the Financial Times and the Initiative on Global Markets believing that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will make a call at some point in 2023 identifying a recession.These conflicting indicators are convoluting the economic forecast through the rest of 2022 and 2023, and the differing potential circumstances would have very different impacts on banks and credit unions. Though this uncertainty can certainly cause headaches and stress for banks and credit unions worried about their capital positions in a severely adverse economic scenario, stress testing can help to prepare your bank or credit union in the face of uncertainty and help to optimize strategic decisions.Stress Test OverviewA stress test is defined as a risk management tool that consists of estimating the bank’s financial position over a time horizon – approximately two years – under different scenarios (typically a baseline and severely adverse scenario). The OCC’s supervisory guidance in October 2012 stated “community banks, regardless of size, should have the capacity to analyze the potential impact of adverse outcomes on their financial conditions.” 1 Further, the OCC’s guidance considers “some form of stress testing or sensitivity analysis of loan portfolios on at least an annual basis to be a key part of sound risk management for community banks.” 2 A stress test can be defined as “the evaluation of a bank’s financial position under a severe but plausible scenario to assist in decision making with the bank.” 3There are a few different types of stress tests that banks and credit unions can utilize in estimating their financial position:Transaction Level Stress Testing: This method is a “bottom up” analysis that looks at key loan relationships individually, assesses the potential impact of adverse economic conditions on those borrowers, and estimates loan losses for each loan.Portfolio Level Stress Testing: This method involves the determination of the potential financial impact on earnings and capital following the identification of key portfolio concentration issues and assessment of the impact of adverse events or economic conditions on credit quality. This method can be applied either “bottom up,” by assessing the results of individual transaction level stress tests and then aggregating the results, or “top down,” by estimating stress loss rates under different adverse scenarios on pools of loans with common characteristics.Enterprise-Wide Level Stress Testing: This method attempts to take risk management out of the silo and consider the enterprise-wide impact of a stress scenario by analyzing “multiple types of risk and their interrelated effects on the overall financial impact.” 4 The risks might include credit risk, counter-party credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk. In its simplest form, enterprise-wide stress testing can entail aggregating the transaction and/or portfolio level stress testing results to consider related impacts across the firm from the stressed scenario previously considered.By utilizing one or more of these stress testing exercises, banks and credit unions can better position themselves for multiple different economic scenarios in order to assure they have sufficient capital and financial strength to withstand an economic downturn if there is one.Economic Scenarios OverviewOne question that often arises is: Given the uncertainty, what economic scenarios should we consider in our stress testing? While it is difficult to answer this question, the most recent Stress Test scenarios prepared by the Federal Reserve are described in a February 2022 report, 2022 Supervisory Scenarios for Annual Stress Tests Required under the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing Rules and the Capital Plan Rule, and provide some guidance to assist with this decision. The scenarios start in the first quarter of 2022 and extend through the first quarter of 2025. Each scenario includes 28 variables, nineteen of which are related to domestic variables in the U.S.While the more global economic conditions detailed in the Fed’s supervisory scenarios may not be applicable to community banks or credit unions, certain domestic variables within the scenarios could be useful when determining the economic scenarios to consider. The domestic variables include six measures of real economic activity and inflation, six measures of interest rates, and four measures of asset prices. The baseline scenario includes an economic expansion over the 13-quarter scenario period, while the severely adverse scenario is a hypothetical scenario that includes a severe global recession, accompanied by heightened stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets. Below, we have included charts of some of the more relevant domestic variables (GDP, unemployment rates, the Prime Rate, and commercial/residential real estate prices) and their historical levels through year-end 2021 as well as the Fed’s assumptions for those variables in the baseline and severely adverse scenarios. 2022 Supervisory Economic Scenarios OverviewBenefits of the Stress TestAs the U.S. moves into a more uncertain economic environment, a financial institution’s preparation for its trip “into the woods” of this uncertain economic environment can reap dividends. Improved valuation, performance enhancement from enhanced strategic decisions, and risk management are some of these benefits. Greater clarity into the bank or credit union’s capital position, credit risk, and earnings outlook under different economic circumstances helps management to make more informed operational decisions.ConclusionWe acknowledge that bank and credit union stress testing can be a complex exercise. The bank or credit union must administer the test, determine and analyze the outputs of its performance, and provide support for key assumptions/results. There is also a variety of potential stress testing methods and economic scenarios to consider when setting up their test. In addition, the qualitative, written support for the test and its results is often as important as the results themselves. For all of these reasons, it is important that bank and credit union management begin building their stress testing expertise sooner rather than later.In order to assist financial institutions with this complex and often time-consuming exercise, we offer several solutions, including preparing custom stress tests for your institution or reviewing ones prepared by the institution internally, to make the process as efficient and valuable as possible.To discuss your stress testing needs in confidence, please do not hesitate to contact us. For more information about stress testing, click here.Endnotes1OCC 2012-33 “Supervisory Guidance” on Community Bank Stress Testing dated October 18, 2012 and accessed at www.occ.gov/news-issuances/bulletins/2012/bulletin-2012-33.html.2 Ibid.3 “Stress Testing for Community Banks” presentation by Robert C. Aaron, Arnold & Porter LLP, November 11, 2011.4 OCC 2012-33 “Supervisory Guidance” on Community Bank Stress Testing dated October 18, 2012 and accessed at www.occ.gov/news-issuances/bulletins/2012/bulletin-2012-33.html.
Buy-Side Fairness Opinions: Fair Today, Foul Tomorrow?
Buy-Side Fairness Opinions: Fair Today, Foul Tomorrow?
This is the eighth article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. If you wish to read the rest of the series, click here. Directors are periodically asked to make tough decisions about the strategic direction of a company. Major acquisitions are usually one of the toughest calls boards are required to make. A board’s fiduciary duty to shareholders is encapsulated by three mandates:Act in good faith;Duty of care (informed decision making); andDuty of loyalty (no self-dealing; conflicts disclosed). Directors are generally shielded from courts second guessing their decisions by the business judgment rule provided there is no breach of duty to shareholders. The presumption is that non-conflicted directors made an informed decision in good faith. As a result, the burden of proof that a transaction is not fair and/or there was a breach of duty resides with the plaintiffs. An independent fairness opinion helps demonstrate that the directors of an acquiring corporation are fulfilling their fiduciary duties of making an informed decision. Fairness opinions seek to answer the question whether the consideration to be paid (or received from a seller’s perspective) is fair to a company’s shareholders from a financial point of view. Occasionally, a board will request a broader opinion (e.g., the transaction is fair). A fairness opinion does not predict where the buyer’s shares may trade in the future. Nor does a fairness opinion approve or disapprove a board’s course of action. The opinion, backed by a rigorous valuation analysis and review of the process that led to the transaction, is just that: an opinion of fairness from a financial point of view.Delaware, the SEC and FairnessFairness opinions are not required under Delaware law or federal securities law, but they have become de rigueur in corporate M&A ever since the Delaware Supreme Court ruled in 1985 that directors of TransUnion were grossly negligent because they approved a merger without adequate inquiry and expert advice. The court did not specifically mandate the opinion be obtained but stated it would have helped the board carryout its duty of care had it obtained a fairness opinion regarding the firm’s value and the fairness of the proposal.The SEC has weighed in, too, in an oblique fashion via comments that were published in the Federal Register in 2007 (Vol. 72, No. 202, October 19, 2007) when FINRA proposed rule 2290 (now 5150) regarding disclosures and procedures for the issuance of fairness opinions by broker-dealers. The SEC noted that the opinions served a variety of purposes, including as indicia of the exercise of care by the board in a corporate control transaction and to supplement information available to shareholders through a proxy.Dow’s Sour PickleBuy-side fairness opinions have a unique place in corporate affairs because the corporate acquirer has to live with the transaction. What seems fair today but is deemed foul tomorrow, may create a liability for directors and executive officers. This can be especially true if the economy and/or industry conditions deteriorate after consummation of a transaction.For instance, The Dow Chemical Company (“Dow”), a subsidiary of Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW), agreed to buy Rohm and Haas (“RH”) for $15.4 billion in cash on July 10, 2008. The $78 per share purchase price represented a 75% premium to RH’s prior day close. The ensuing global market rout and the failure of a planned joint venture with a Kuwait petrochemical company led Dow to seek to terminate the deal in January 2009 and to cut the dividend for the first time in the then 97 years the dividend had been paid.Ultimately, the parties settled litigation and Dow closed the acquisition on April 1, 2009 after obtaining an investment from Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) and seller financing via the sale of preferred stock to RH’s two largest shareholders.Dow was well represented and obtained multiple fairness opinions from its advisors (Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley). One can question how the advisors concluded a 75% one-day premium was fair to Dow’s shareholders (fairness is a mosaic and maybe RH’s shares were severely depressed in the 2008 bear market). Nonetheless, the affair illustrates how vulnerable Dow’s Board of Directors or any board would have been absent the fairness opinions.Fairness and ElonBefore Elon Musk reneged on his planned acquisition of Twitter, Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) on July 8, 2022, one of the most recent contentious corporate acquisitions was the 2016 acquisition of SolarCity Corporation by Tesla Inc. (NASDAQGS: TSLA). Plaintiffs sought up to $13 billion of damages, arguing that (a) the Tesla Board of Directors breached its duty of loyalty, (b) Musk was unjustly enriched (Musk owned ~22% of both companies and was Chairman of both); and (c) the acquisition constituted waste.Delaware Court of Chancery Judge Joseph Slights ruled in favor of Tesla on April 27, 2022. Slights noted courts are sometimes skeptical of fairness opinions; however, he was not skeptical of Evercore’s opinion, noting extensive diligence, the immediate alerting of the Tesla Board about SolarCity’s liquidity situation and the absence of prior work by Evercore for Tesla. Tesla Walks the Entirely FairLine with SolarCityDownload Presentation
BuySide Fairness Opinions Fair Today Foul Tomorrow
Buy-Side Fairness Opinions: Fair Today, Foul Tomorrow?
Directors are periodically asked to make tough decisions about the strategic direction of a company. Major acquisitions are usually one of the toughest calls boards are required to make. Buy-side fairness opinions have a unique place in corporate affairs because the corporate acquirer has to live with the transaction. What seems fair today but is deemed foul tomorrow, may create a liability for directors and executive officers. This can be especially true if the economy and/or industry conditions deteriorate after consummation of a transaction.
Bond Pain and Perspective on Bank Valuations
Bond Pain and Perspective on Bank Valuations
Equity investors define a bear market as a 20% or greater reduction in price from the most recent high price. There is no consensus for fixed income. A bond’s maturity and coupon are key variables in determining the sensitivity of price except when overlaying credit and prepayment variables when applicable.A simple definition might be when the price falls more than three times the annual income for any bond with a maturity greater than five years. If so, it is a low bar when coupons are as low as they are. Definitions aside, the bond market is in a bear market.Figure 1 :: 1994 Bear Market vs 2022 Bear Market The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note (“UST”) was 3.21% on June 27, up from 1.51% as of year-end. Ignoring the impact of the intervening six months for what would be a bond with 9.5 years to maturity, the increase in yield has produced a ~14% loss in value. The last bond bear market that was brutal occurred in 1994 when the Fed raised the Fed Funds target rate from today’s aspirational rate of 3.0% beginning in February to 6.0% by February 1995. The yield on the 10-year UST rose from 5.19% on October 15, 1993 to a peak of 8.05% on November 7, 1994 once the market could see the last few Fed hikes to come. The 286bps increase in yield pushed the price of the 10-year UST down by 17%, which modestly exceeds the 14% loss this year. Coupons matter. Fixed income investors entered the current rising rate environment with little coupon to cushion rising yields unlike in the years immediately after the Great Financial Crisis when the Fed first implemented a zero-interest rate policy (“ZIRP”). Worse, banks entered the current bear market with much bigger securities portfolios given the system was inundated with excess deposits because of actions taken by the Fed and government to offset the COVID-19 recession. To get a sense of the damage in bank bond portfolios consider Figures 2 and 3 where we have compared the unrealized losses in bank bond portfolios as of March 31 with the unrealized losses as of year-end 1994, which roughly corresponded to the bottom of the 1994 bear market. The data reflects averages. Figure 2 :: Unrealized Losses in Bank Portfolios as of March 31, 2022Figure 3 :: Unrealized Losses in Bank Portfolios as of December 31, 1994 We make the following observations for banks with $1 billion to $3 billion of assets: Banks are better capitalized with average leverage and tier one capital ratios of 10.6% and 17.0% as of March 31, 2022 compared to 8.3% and 12.9% as of year-end 1994.Securities classified as available-for-sale (“AFS”) and held-to-maturity (“HTM”) averaged 19.0% and 2.5% of assets as of March 31, 2022 compared to 11.2% and 14.6% as of year-end 1994.The unrealized loss in the AFS portfolio equated to 4.7% of the cost basis and 11.3% of tier one capital (excludes the deferred tax asset adjustment) as of March 31, 2022 compared to 2.8% and 5.7% as of year-end 1994. 1 Unrealized losses in HTM portfolios in Figure 2 may appear too small even though many banks classify long-dated municipals as HTM because these illiquid bonds had not been adequately marked yet to reflect a rapidly declining market.Unrealized losses will increase once June 30 data is available because UST rates have risen ~75bps since March 31. Banks are sitting on large unrealized losses today. Investors know that. The bear market in bank stocks (the NASDAQ Bank Index is down ~19% YTD) primarily reflects investor expectations about the potential impact a recession would have on credit costs next year even though NIMs will increase this year (excluding the impact of PPP loan fees) and next provided the Fed does not pivot and reduce rates. The current equity bear market is not about unrealized losses in bond portfolios; it is about the economic outlook. From a valuation perspective, we primarily look to the impact of rising (or falling) rates on a bank’s earnings rather than how changes in rates have impacted the value of the bond portfolio and tangible book value. Assuming an efficient market, the unrealized losses represent the opportunity cost of holding bonds with coupons below the current market rate. If the underwater bonds are sold and immediately repurchased, then the bonds repurchased will produce enough extra income over the life of the bonds to recoup the loss (assuming an efficient market). Further, the AFS securities portfolio is the only asset for most banks that is marked-to-market other than mortgage loans pending sale. Fixed rate residential and CRE loans would have sizable losses, too, if subjected to mark-to-market. Rates have risen, prepayment speeds have slowed and in the case of CRE credit spreads have widened. Also not marked-to-market are deposits. Though a liability, core deposits are the key “asset” for commercial banks. Value for deposits—especially non-interest-bearing deposits—are soaring given a low beta to changes in market interest rates when loan-to-deposit ratios are low. The monthly report that really matters is not the bond report but the asset-liability model (“ALM”). Banks manage net interest margin (price) and assets (volume) to drive earnings; and earnings (or cash flow) drive stocks over time. Earnings also build book value to the extent earnings are retained. Rising rates—gradually rather than rapid—are a positive development given the commercial bank business model, assuming that credit quality does not deteriorate. Having said that, we cannot completely dismiss the unrealized losses in the bond portfolios. Some investors focus on tangible book value, though we view it as a proxy for earning power because tangible book value is levered to produce net interest income. Also, M&A is more challenging because day one dilution to tangible BVPS is greater to the extent unrealized bond losses are recognized via fair value marks applied to all assets. Of course, earnings then increase from accreting the discounts as additional yield. Aside from the soaring value of core deposits, the glass half full view is bonds and fixed rate loans eventually mature. In the interim, cash flows should be reinvested to produce better yields.About Mercer CapitalMercer Capital is a national valuation and transaction advisory firm that has advised banks for 40 years through bear and bull markets. Please give one of our professionals a call if we can be of assistance.
Always Cash Flow and Earning Power
Always Cash Flow and Earning Power 

So how does one value private equity and credit when financial conditions are tightening, IPO and M&A activity is moribund, and a recession may be developing?
Considering Contingent Consideration (1)
Considering Contingent Consideration
This is the seventh article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. If you wish to read the rest of the series, click here. Contingent consideration is a common feature of M&A when both parties are private, or the acquirer is public, and the target is private. There are many forms of contingent consideration in M&A. These include post closing purchase price adjustments that can alter total transaction value or that can alter the payment and realization of net proceeds through the recovery of transaction set-asides such as escrow balances or the payment of holdbacks and deferrals.What Do Earnouts Entail?The most common contingent payment is an “earn-out” that bridges the buyer’s bid and the seller’s ask by ensuring the business produces an agreed upon level of revenues and/or earnings (typically EBITDA) within an agreed timeframe before the payment is made.Earn-outs could be considered the ultimate form of confirmatory due diligence. From a buyer’s perspective, earn-outs reduce risk by reducing up-front cash and the likelihood of materially overpaying absent an adverse turn in the economy or industry conditions. From a seller’s perspective, contingent consideration allows sellers to obtain an acceptable price and sometimes a premium or stretch valuation if the Company attains the agreed-upon targets. Further, earnouts create an alignment of interests to the extent roll-over management and ownership is incented to optimize the company’s performance.In our experience, most buyers are willing to pay in a range of value that produces an acceptable return based upon conservative assumptions about the business’ future earning power (EBITDA or EBITDA less capex) and growth rate. Unless the business is viewed as having above average risk, most buyers’ required rate of return on an unlevered basis will be conservative but not ridiculously high. This reflects buyers’ natural aversion to risks that may not be readily apparent to most sellers. An earn-out is a means by which to close or narrow this gap.When earnouts are involved, buyers and sellers must understand the waterfall of post-closing events, and their respective timing and terms to gain a full understanding of transaction consideration. Earnouts are a form of purchase consideration where acquirers tender value to the target seller if certain future events occur. Earnouts provide sellers with potential value fulfillment or upside while simultaneously allowing buyers to defer payment of consideration with the possibility of recovering a designated portion of the purchase price if post-closing hurdles are not achieved.By its nature, contingent consideration adds complexity for both buyers and sellers, particularly when the features of the earnout reflect significant speculation on post-closing outcomes. These might include high growth, reversals of trend, or specific events such as new business developments or failed business retention.Despite the complexities, earnouts and other forms of contingent consideration can be critical to achieving a successful closing when market conditions are ebbing more than flowing or when winning the day requires the buyer to make a stretch offer.Mid-Market Deals Increasingly Reflect Up-Market Deal StructuresAccording to GF Data®, a firm that provides data on private equity-sponsored M&A transactions with an enterprise value of $10 to $250 million, 38% of 432 transactions in 2021 entailed either seller financing or earnouts compared to 44% of 329 deals in 2020. The reduction last year reflected a seller’s market that was characterized by too much capital chasing a limited pool of sellers. Given tighter financial conditions this year that may lead to a recession later this year or next, it would not surprise us to see the percentage of deals with an earnout increase because the risk to a target’s earnings and maybe long-term growth prospects will rise.A financial advisor can be an important intermediary for both buyer and seller to craft a well structured earnout to facilitate successful deal negotiations rather than letting a poorly crafted and/or poorly socialized earnout create a negotiation wedge that can delay or overwhelm momentum required to finalize a purchase agreement.Buyer Awareness and Financial ReportingWhile it should not impact the economics of a transaction, buyers face the added burden of accounting for contingent consideration per FASB’s ASC 805, which addresses business combinations. It requires that the fair value of contingent consideration be recorded as a liability at the acquisition date, resulting in an increased amount of goodwill or other intangible asset depending upon how value is allocated to the acquired assets. Fair value also must be re-measured for each subsequent reporting period until the contingency is settled. Mercer Capital’s years of M&A purchase price allocation work for both strategic and financial acquirers gives us unique insight into the sometimes nettlesome issues of purchase price allocations in M&A transactions.Concluding ThoughtsWhile this article is an installment in our larger buy-side series of content, it is important to draw advice for buyers from our near universal advice to sellers.We often advise sellers to be content with the consideration they receive at closing and to assess contingent consideration with a healthy degree of skeptical risk, particularly when achieving the earnout represents a stretch in future outcomes.A logical extension of that advice for buyers is to be prepared to pay even if the benchmarks are deemed a stretch. The occasional extraordinary outcome can create significant buyer liability. Whether the net effect on the buyer is a beneficial deferral of payment or a deal premium (or otherwise) must be assessed in the context of the overall offering stack.Buyers should determine the reason for using an earnout and then determine an appropriate design for the earnout. Clear, unambiguous terms and measurements are recommended to minimize negotiating friction and incent smooth post-closing integration and alignment of interests both operationally and financially.If your development needs involve growth through acquisition, and you find the market for quality targets requires the thoughtful use of earnout consideration, Mercer Capital can provide useful insight while helping quantify the real-time financial equivalency of any earnout consideration offered.
Considering Contingent Consideration
Considering Contingent Consideration
Contingent consideration is a common feature of M&A when both parties are private, or the acquirer is public, and the target is private. There are many forms of contingent consideration in M&A. These include post closing purchase price adjustments that can alter total transaction value or that can alter the payment and realization of net proceeds through the recovery of transaction set-asides such as escrow balances or the payment of holdbacks and deferrals.
Tesla Walks the Entirely FairLine with SolarCity
Tesla Walks the Entirely FairLine with SolarCity
Evaluating Fairness of the Tesla Motors, Inc. and SolarCity Corporation MergerIn March 2016, Jonathan Goldsmith retired from a long advertising stint for Dos Equis beer as the Most Interesting Man in the World with a final commercial in which he was sent on a one-way trip to Mars. The same month Elon Musk, arguably the most interesting man in global business then and now, was laying the ground work for the merger of Telsa, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SolarCity Corporation of which he owned about 22% of both companies.Fairness as an adjective means what is just, equitable, legitimate and consistent with rules and standards. As it relates to transactions, fairness is like valuation in that it is a range concept: transactions may not be fair, a close call, fair or very fair.This presentation looks at the issues raised by plaintiffs who alleged Musk orchestrated the deal to bail-out SolarCity, and how the Delaware Court of Chancery ruled on the issues on April 27. 2022 under the entire fairness standard rather than deferential business judgment rule.
The Importance of a Quality of Earnings Study
The Importance of a Quality of Earnings Study
As we’ve been writing in recent blog posts, consolidation efforts in the RIA space are facing multiple headwinds.  Among them, market conditions and inflation are motivating buyers to scrutinize profit estimates more than ever.  In that light, we thought our readers would appreciate this guest post by our colleague, Jay D. Wilson, Jr., CFA, ASA, CBA, who works with banks and FinTechs. We’re getting more requests for QoE assessments from both the buy-side and sell-side (the latter wanting to buttress their CIMs).Acquirers of companies can learn a valuable lesson from the same approach that pro sports teams take in evaluating players. Prior to draft night, teams have events called combines where they put prospective players through tests to more accurately assess their potential. In this scenario, the team is akin to the acquirer or investor and the player is the seller. While a player may have strong statistics in college, this may not translate to their future performance at the next level. So it’s important for the team to dig deeper and analyze thoroughly to reduce the potential for a draft bust and increase the potential for drafting a future all-star.A similar process should take place when acquirers examine acquisition targets. Historical financial statements may provide little insight into the future growth and earnings potential for the underlying company. One way that acquirers can better assess potential targets is through a process similar to a sports combine called a quality of earnings study (QoE).What Is a Quality of Earnings Study?A QoE study typically focuses on the economic earning power of the target. A QoE combines a number of due diligence processes and findings into a single document that can be vitally helpful to a potential acquirer. The QoE can help the acquirer assess the key elements of a target’s valuation: core earning power, growth potential, and risk factors.Ongoing earning power is a key component of valuationOngoing earning power is a key component of valuation as it represents an estimate of sustainable earnings and a base from which long-term growth can be expected. This estimate of earning power typically considers an assessment of the quality of the company’s historical and projected future earnings. In addition to assessing the quality of the earnings, buyers should also consider the relative riskiness, growth potential, and potential volatility of those earnings as well as potential pro-forma synergies that the target may bring in an acquisition.Analysis performed in a QoE study can include the following:Profitability Procedures. Investigating historical performance for impact on prospective cash flows. Historical EBITDA analysis can include certain types of adjustments such as: (1) Management compensation add-backs; (2) Non-recurring items; (3) Pro-forma adjustments/synergies.Customer Analysis. Investigating revenue relationships and agreements to understand the impact on prospective cash flows. Procedures include: (1) Identifying significant customer relationships; (2) Gross margin analysis; and (3) Lifing analysis.Business and Pricing Analysis. Investigating the target entities positioning in the market and understanding the competitive advantages from a product and operations perspective. This involves: (1) Interviews with key members of management; (2) Financial analysis and benchmarking; (3) Industry analysis; (4) Fair market value assessments; and (5) Structuring. The prior areas noted are broad and may include a wide array of sub-areas to investigate as part of the QoE study. Sub-areas can include:Workforce / employee analysisA/R and A/P analysisCustomer AnalysisIntangible asset analysisA/R aging and inventory analysisLocation analysisBilling and collection policiesSegment analysisProof of cash and revenue analysisMargin and expense analysisCapital structure analysisWorking capital analysis For high growth companies in certain industries such as technology, where valuation is highly dependent upon forecast projections, it may also be necessary to analyze other specific areas such as:The unit economics of the target. For example, a buyer may want a more detailed estimate or analysis of the target’s key performance indicators such as cost of acquiring customers (CAC), lifetime value of new customers (LTV), churn rates, magic number, and annual recurring revenue/profit. These unit economics provide a foundation from which to forecast and/or test the reasonableness of projections.A commercial analysis that examines the competitive environment, go-to-market strategy, and existing customers' perception of the company and its products.The QoE study should be customized and tailored to the buyer’s specific concerns as well as the target’s unique situationsThe QoE study should be customized and tailored to the buyer’s specific concerns as well as the target’s unique situations. It is also paramount for the buyer’s team to utilize the QoE study to keep the due diligence process focused, efficient, and pertinent to their concerns. For sellers, a primary benefit of a QoE can be to help them illustrate their future potential and garner more interest from potential acquirers.Leveraging our valuation and advisory experience, our quality of earnings analyses identify and assess the cash flow, growth, and risk factors that impact value. By providing our clients with a fresh and independent perspective on the quality, stability, and predictability of future cash flows of a potential target, we help them to increase the likelihood of a successful transaction, similar to those teams and players that are prepared for draft night success.Mercer Capital’s focused approach to traditional quality of earnings analysis generates insights that matter to potential buyers and sellers and reach out to us to discuss your needs in confidence.
Negotiating Working Capital Targets in a Transaction (1)
Negotiating Working Capital Targets in a Transaction
This is the sixth article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. If you wish to read the rest of the series, click here. In middle market transactions, some of the most crucial points of negotiation are the net working capital targets agreed upon by the buyer and seller. Net working capital targets set a defined minimum amount of working capital that the buyer requires the seller to leave in the business at the close of a transaction. Given that net working capital targets can have a direct effect on the final purchase price of a transaction, understanding the how and why of these types of negotiations is crucial for buyers looking to negotiate deals that not only look good at closing but also pass the test as the buyer takes over the operation of the newly acquired business. Defining Net Working Capital Before negotiating working capital targets and benchmarks, it is important that the buyers, sellers, and their advisors in a deal setting have a clear understanding of what will and won’t be included in net working capital for the purposes of closing the deal. By the book, net working capital is defined as current assets less current liabilities. While this definition is acceptable for financial statement analysis and other accounting-adjacent applications, in the M&A universe, the most commonly used measure of net working capital is cash-free, debt-free net working capital. This is the standard definition of net working capital in a deal setting because it assumes that a seller will retain the cash in the business after paying off any short-term debts that the business owes. These debts could potentially include related party notes and lines of credit with banks. In an M&A transaction, net working capital and net working capital targets are often defined terms in both the letter of intent and the purchase agreement. For buyers, it is crucial to understand these definitions because the basis of the net working capital calculation could directly affect the final purchase price. Why Are Net Working Capital Negotiations Necessary in a Deal? Net working capital targets are necessary in deal settings because the amount of net working capital in a business often fluctuates from month-to-month and even week-to-week. Therefore, it is important that a benchmark or base level of net working capital to be left in the business at closing is agreed upon by both the buyer and the seller. For example, a seller could aggressively collect accounts receivable in the months leading to closing in an effort to convert these receivables into cash. Conversely, a seller could let accounts payable inflate in the months leading to closing and theoretically retain a higher amount of cash. Even absent any sort of concentrated effort to impact the working capital, most companies have some level of fluctuation in their various balance sheet accounts. Setting a net working capital target negates the impact of these fluctuations and prevents the seller from “gaming” cash and working capital levels in anticipation of a transaction. If net working capital levels at closing are not in line with the targets established in the negotiation process, an adjustment to the purchase price can be triggered. The purchase price adjustment related to net working capital is typically applied after the close of the transaction – based on a final accounting as of the closing date. Usually, a defined amount of the purchase price is set aside in a short-term escrow specifically for any negative adjustment related to the final net working capital balance. If the final determination of net working capital comes in below the established threshold, then the buyer retains funds from the escrow to make up for this shortfall. If the final net working capital figure is above the threshold, the buyer makes an additional payment to the seller for the excess amount. From the buyer’s perspective, it is important to negotiate an escrow amount that is large enough to cover any potential swings in net working capital that could result at closing. Negotiating Net Working Capital Targets The most practical and commonly used method of setting net working capital targets and benchmarks is to calculate a historical average amount of net working capital needed to fund a company’s operations. This is most often done by calculating the average net working capital on a monthly basis over the twelve months preceding the valuation date used in the transaction. Calculating an average over a historical period removes any seasonality effects and reveals a “normalized” level of net working capital needed to support the company’s ongoing operations with no capital disruption. Since valuations are typically predicated on trailing twelve months EBITDA (or some other measure of earnings), it is typical that the lookback period for the net working capital target calculation coincides with the twelve-month period in which EBITDA is calculated. In other words, the calculation of a net working capital target should be on the same historical basis as that of the measure of earnings used to support the transaction value. In situations where EBITDA from the most recent period is deemed to be unsustainable or if there is significant short-term growth underlying the transaction value, it might be necessary to calculate the net working capital benchmark by applying a percentage (based on historical averages) to an ongoing revenue figure in order to consider that net working capital needs will change as revenue either declines or increases post-closing. While conducting due diligence, buyers may find potential adjustments to certain balance sheet items that comprise net working capital, which can affect the calculation of the net working capital target. Buyers will want to confirm that the seller has properly accrued (both historically and at closing) for certain items such as accrued vacation, payroll, bonuses, warranty obligations, etc. These potential adjustments can add another layer of complexity to the negotiation of net working capital targets, as buyers may find that there is an excess or deficiency of net working capital at certain points in the historical lookback period. Sellers will often make the argument that they have historically operated with excess working capital based on comparisons to industry averages. Buyers should always approach any “excess” adjustment of this type with caution. It can be difficult to understand why the selling company would have operated with this “excess” when the capital could have been paid out to shareholders or invested in another way. With further analysis, there is often an explanation as to why the “excess” working capital has historically been carried on the company’s balance sheet. As an example, the “excess” could have historically resulted from a quick turnover of payables such that the company has lower current liabilities than the industry average. The quick payments may have earned the company discounts from its vendors, which likely equated to higher profit margins. If the cash flow figures underlying the transaction value include the benefit of these discounts, then it could be double counting to adjust the net working capital to a “normalized” level. One question that will arise in the negotiations is whether a specific dollar amount or a range should be utilized as the net working capital target. The logic of applying a range is straightforward – it prevents minor variances from creating a post-closing adjustment and reduces the likelihood of disagreements between the buyer and seller regarding the calculation of net working capital to the specific dollar. A word of caution on ranges: if the range is left too wide, it invites the same type of balance sheet “gaming” from the seller that the setting of a target was meant to prevent in the first place. Our experience has been that, if a range is preferred, it should be tight enough that any amount that would be potentially gained from the closing working capital figure falling at the bottom or top of the range should be immaterial to both the buyer and the seller. Concluding ThoughtsHaving a team of seasoned advisors to assist with the acquisition and due diligence process can ensure buyers that the net working capital targets, and thus the purchase price, are set at levels that are appropriate and fair to the buyer. Mercer Capital has acted in this capacity in hundreds of transactions over our 30+ years of existence. If you are looking for an experienced team of professionals to assist in the due diligence and negotiation process, please reach out to one of our Transaction Advisory Group professionals to assist.
Negotiating Working Capital Targets in a Transaction
Negotiating Working Capital Targets in a Transaction
This is the sixth article in a series on buy-side considerations. Our focus in this article is on understanding how and why net working capital targets are crucial for buyers looking to negotiate deals that look good at closing and pass the test as the buyer takes over the operation of the newly acquired business.
Strategic Premiums: Can 2+2 Equal 5?
Strategic Premiums: Can 2+2 Equal 5?
This is the third article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. If you wish to read previous articles click here. When given the choice between paying more or less for a good or service, it only makes sense that people prefer to pay less. Following this, a rational person would be expected to pay no more than the minimum available price for an item. Many modern business acquisitions appear to defy this logic – at least at first glance. According to Bloomberg, acquirers paid an average premium of 25.86% when making transactions in 2021. In other words, the average acquirer was willing to pay almost 26% above the intrinsic market value of a target business to successfully bid on an acquisition. Theory holds that the value of any corporation, especially a controlling interest in such corporation, should have a value equal to the present value of the cash flows expected to benefit shareholders. This is called a financial control value and represents the intrinsic value of the company on a stand-alone basis. As evidenced by the premium data noted above, many acquirers buy businesses at a value higher than this intrinsic value, paying what is referred to as a strategic premium.What Is a Strategic Premium?A strategic premium exists when a buyer expects that two plus two equals five, or possibly even some figure above five. In less abstract terms, acquirers pay a strategic premium when they expect that the combination of their business with another will generate more cash flow than both businesses on a standalone basis. A strategic premium reflects the portion of this added benefit that the buyer is willing pay to the seller to secure a deal.To give an example, let’s say that Company A and Company B both generate $2 in EBITDA each year. Both companies may have an intrinsic stand-alone value of $12 (6x EBITDA). When Company A acquires B, they might pay 7.5x EBITDA ($15) because they expect that by combining into Company AB, the Company will generate a total of $5 of EBITDA per year (2+2=5) – providing for a combined intrinsic value of $30 (6x EBITDA). The difference between Company B’s stand-alone value of $12 and the $15 that Company A is willing to pay for it is $3, a 25% strategic premium. Company A spends $15 to increase their value from $12 to $30 – a deal that is accretive to shareholder value.What Justifies a Strategic Premium?The framework we provided for the strategic premium begs a larger question: what justifies a strategic premium? Ultimately, there are several possible explanations. Acquirers pay a strategic premium when they expect to gain some sort of efficiency through a business combination. As outlined in our previous example, they expect that these efficiencies will generate more cash flows than both companies can produce on a standalone basis. There are many efficiencies that companies could expect from a transaction, but three are most common.Cost SavingsCost savings are the most common justification for strategic premiums, often because they are comparatively easy to forecast.Let’s go back to our two companies from earlier. Let’s say that Companies A and B both need to purchase the same raw material to create widgets. Once the companies combine, they still need the same amount of raw materials, but they will likely place a smaller number of larger orders. Since each order that comes in will now be larger, their suppliers may give them a bulk discount, which lowers the overall cost. By combining, Companies A and B are spending less money to bring in the same amount of revenue-generating raw materials, leading to larger amounts of profit and free cash flow.Cost savings can come from supply costs, staff eliminations, or any number of other areas. These savings are usually both the most obvious and quickly achieved strategic enhancements following an acquisition.Revenue EnhancementsRevenue enhancements are another common justification for strategic premiums but are harder to model.There are many ways in which revenue enhancements can occur, but we focus on a simple example for the sake of this article. If Company A has a large distribution network, they can use that network to sell Company B’s products to a larger group of people than Company B had been able to previously. Bringing in this additional should increase profits and create more free cash flow.Process ImprovementsProcess improvements come about when the companies involved in a transaction absorb each other’s core competencies or assets. Mixing these competencies or assets can create revenue enhancements and/or operational efficiencies.Continuing our examination of Companies A and B, Company A might pay a premium for Company B if they see that Company B has some sort of proprietary efficient process for creating widgets that Company A could learn and take advantage of. In today’s world, such considerations often focus on technology – be it software of some other form of technology. If the target company’s technology can be utilized by an acquirer to enhance the acquirer’s own cash flow, a strategic premium may be in the offing.Should You Pay a Strategic Premium?Now that we have reviewed the theory behind strategic premiums, we discuss how they can be advantageous or detrimental to acquirers.Perhaps the most obvious benefit of paying a strategic premium is that it can prevent other firms from purchasing the acquiree first. Sellers in a transaction are incentivized to maximize price. By paying a higher premium, strategic acquirers can entice sellers away from financial buyers or other seemingly “less strategic” buyers. On the other hand, paying a strategic premium is a potential risk. A higher acquisition price increases the amount of cash flows necessary to recoup the acquirer’s investment. If the premium is too high, even an acquisition with compelling strategic benefits can become unprofitable.Ultimately the reasonable price to pay for a target depends on the buyer. Different suitors will expect different efficiencies from the acquisition. To avoid paying too large of a premium, acquirers must have a realistic notion of what they can pay for a target before entering negotiations. Even then, buyers need to exercise discipline and know when to walk away from a bidding war that has gotten too heated.Acquirers are most likely to be successful when they have an organized process for ensuring that the rationale behind the acquisition justifies the transaction price. Such a process usually includes the analysis (and scrutiny) of the specific enhancements anticipated from a transaction. Strategic enhancements often seem reasonable when considered generally but may fall apart (or at least shrink in magnitude) when under the light of detailed financial inspection. Premiums paid on the basis of only a general consideration of strategic enhancements could be doomed for failure. The success of such deals is often based more on luck than anything else.Concluding ThoughtsTo mitigate the risk of overpaying for an acquisition (and to reduce the impact of pure luck), we recommend a detailed financial inspection of both the target company and the potential strategic value of any transaction. As part of this analysis, it will likely benefit an acquirer to retain a transaction advisory team that possesses financial and valuation expertise.Since Mercer Capital’s founding in 1982, we have worked with a broad range of public and private companies and financial institutions. As financial advisors, Mercer Capital looks to assess the strategic fit of every prospect through initial planning, rigorous industry and financial analysis, target or buyer screening, negotiations, and exhaustive due diligence so that our clients reach the right decision regardless of outcome. Our dedicated and responsive deal team stands ready to help your business manage the transaction process.
Considerations in Merger Transactions (1)
Considerations in Merger Transactions
This is the fourth article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. If you wish to read the rest of the series, click here. When considering a buy-side transaction to expand, many middle market companies may not consider a merger transaction as an option compared to an outright acquisition. Mergers are often seen as transactions for big conglomerate-type companies on Wall Street, but they can be effective for middle-market businesses as well. A merger is a combination of two companies on generally equal terms in which the transaction is structured as a share exchange although sometimes a modest amount of cash may be included, too. There are many questions that must be addressed. The key economic question involves the exchange ratio to establish the ownership percentages based upon the value of each company and the relative contribution of sales, EBITDA and other measures to the combined company. Corporate governance and social issues are important factors to consider also. Because the “target” shareholders are not cashed out, a significant amount of time early in the process should be spent exploring the compatibility of directors, executive management and shareholders.Why a Merger?A basic premise from a shareholder perspective is that a merger will increase value through enhanced profitability, growth prospects and perhaps from the perspective of an acquirer of the combined company.Stated differently, both shareholders should own shares in a company that will be more valuable than the interest in each independent company.Assuming the parties are comfortable with governance and social issues, a merger can be an excellent means to grow the business when one of two conditions exist:Neither ownership group wants to truly exit; and/orNeither company has enough capital to fund a buy-out acquisition. In the first situation, it may be that certain market, business or personal life cycle dynamics will keep one or both parties from wanting to sell the business. There is too much opportunity in the existing business to forego and owning a smaller percentage of a large pie is not an insurmountable hurdle. A merger gives both sets of ownership the value enhancements related to the expansion without forcing either group to exit their ownership position. Mergers also have another very practical element. Cash is conserved because all or most of the consideration consists of shares issued by the surviving corporation to the shareholders of the company that will be merged into the surviving corporation. Some cash will be expended for professional fees, but the funds usually are nominal relative to the value of the combined companies. Importantly, existing excess liquidity and/or the borrowing capacity of the combined company can be used for expansion.Relative ValueIn a merger transaction, there is a two-sided valuation question. While in an acquisition, the buying party is typically bringing cash to the transaction (cash being easy to value), the merger parties are effectively both paying for the transaction with stock. The value of both companies must be set to determine the relative value percentages. If Company A (valued at $110 million) merges with Company B (valued at $90 million), the relative value percentages are 55%/45%. Following the merger, the former Company A shareholders should have 55% of the equity ownership in the merged entity, with the former Company B shareholders holding the remaining 45%.In addition to considering the stand-alone valuation of each company, a contribution analysis should be constructed based upon sales, EBITDA, equity and other financial metrics. The valuations and contribution analysis then provides a range of exchange ratios (or ownership percentages) to conduct negotiations.While the valuation and contribution math may be straightforward (or not at all), negotiating merger transactions can be complicated since one party is not paid to go away. Mercer Capital is often hired on a joint basis by entities seeking to negotiate a merger transaction.While the final decision to go through with the merger remains with our clients in this situation, we serve as an independent advisor to both sides of the merger to establish the relative value parameters. An independent assessment of the relative values can help tremendously in building confidence with shareholders and boards that the terms of the merger are reasonable for both sides.True-UpsAs with most deals, merger transactions usually include certain post-transaction “true-ups” to ensure that each entity delivers adequate levels of working capital (or other assets) at closing. A typical structure is for the parties to create escrow accounts funded with cash in amounts proportional to the post-merger ownership percentages. These escrow accounts serve as a mechanism to adjust for any shortfall at one entity.If needed, a portion of the escrow cash is contributed into the merged entity, serving to make-up for any shortfall at closing. This keeps the ownership percentages at the agreed-upon relative value percentages. The excess cash left in the escrow accounts after these adjustments is distributed to the shareholders of the former (now merged) entities.In our experience, shareholders and boards do not like the uncertainty of shifting ownership percentages – this escrow structure prevents the percentages from changing based on post-closing adjustments.Who Is in Charge?As with any acquisition, an organized post-transaction integration is critical to the success of a merger.No matter how compelling the economics of a combination may be, the cultural fit of the two businesses will be a key element in determining the eventual success of the transaction. From the initial stages of the transaction, issues related to the cultural fit should be discussed and strategies should be implemented to increase the probability of a successful integration.A basic question to be addressed early in the process is who will run the combined company. Public companies sometimes use co-CEOs, but not often for good reason. There should not be any question who is in charge, the responsibilities of subordinates, and the chain of command and accountability.A comprehensive agreement on overall governance structures (including regional management, board construction, etc.) can provide some comfort for the side that might see themselves as being on the losing end of the potentially more political question of chief executive.Shareholder control is another issue that has to be dealt with explicitly. If both entities consist of a large number of shareholders with no shareholder in direct control, the control issue is moot because there will be no controlling shareholder in the merged entity. Such prospective mergers are easier to negotiate because one shareholder (or voting block) does not have to give up control.However, when one or both entities has a controlling shareholder (which could be represented by a single individual or a family block of stock), loss of control in a combined company may trump compelling economics. Both parties need to examine this issue closely and provide for conflict resolution mechanisms through the corporation’s by-laws and buy-sell agreements. Like marriages, getting out of a transaction is a lot harder and more expensive than entering into it.Concluding ThoughtsWe think mergers are a viable strategy to expand a business when the economics and social aspects are compelling for many small and middle market companies. Reasonable valuations and a detailed contribution analysis are the initial building blocks to quantify the economics. Mercer Capital is an active transaction advisor. While we most often are retained by one party, some of our most successful and rewarding projects have been those where we were jointly retained by both parties to advise on the transaction structure. If you are considering a merger (or in the middle of a current transaction), please call one of our Transaction Advisory Group professionals to assist.
Strategic Premiums: Can 2+2 Equal 5
Strategic Premiums: Can 2+2 Equal 5?
Many acquirers buy businesses at a value higher than this intrinsic value, paying what is referred to as a strategic premium. In this post we discuss the theory behind strategic premiums, and how they can be advantageous or detrimental to acquirers.
Considerations in Merger Transactions
Considerations in Merger Transactions
This is the fourth article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. If you wish to read the rest of the series, click here.When considering a buy-side transaction to expand, many middle market companies may not consider a merger transaction as an option compared to an outright acquisition. Mergers are often seen as transactions for big conglomerate-type companies on Wall Street, but they can be effective for middle-market businesses as well.A merger is a combination of two companies on generally equal terms in which the transaction is structured as a share exchange although sometimes a modest amount of cash may be included, too. There are many questions that must be addressed. The key economic question involves the exchange ratio to establish the ownership percentages based upon the value of each company and the relative contribution of sales, EBITDA and other measures to the combined company.Corporate governance and social issues are important factors to consider also. Because the “target” shareholders are not cashed out, a significant amount of time early in the process should be spent exploring the compatibility of directors, executive management and shareholders.Why a Merger?A basic premise from a shareholder perspective is that a merger will increase value through enhanced profitability, growth prospects and perhaps from the perspective of an acquirer of the combined company.Stated differently, both shareholders should own shares in a company that will be more valuable than the interest in each independent company.Assuming the parties are comfortable with governance and social issues, a merger can be an excellent means to grow the business when one of two conditions exist:Neither ownership group wants to truly exit; and/orNeither company has enough capital to fund a buy-out acquisition.In the first situation, it may be that certain market, business or personal life cycle dynamics will keep one or both parties from wanting to sell the business. There is too much opportunity in the existing business to forego and owning a smaller percentage of a large pie is not an insurmountable hurdle. A merger gives both sets of ownership the value enhancements related to the expansion without forcing either group to exit their ownership position.Mergers also have another very practical element. Cash is conserved because all or most of the consideration consists of shares issued by the surviving corporation to the shareholders of the company that will be merged into the surviving corporation. Some cash will be expended for professional fees, but the funds usually are nominal relative to the value of the combined companies. Importantly, existing excess liquidity and/or the borrowing capacity of the combined company can be used for expansion.Relative ValueIn a merger transaction, there is a two-sided valuation question. While in an acquisition, the buying party is typically bringing cash to the transaction (cash being easy to value), the merger parties are effectively both paying for the transaction with stock. The value of both companies must be set to determine the relative value percentages. If Company A (valued at $110 million) merges with Company B (valued at $90 million), the relative value percentages are 55%/45%. Following the merger, the former Company A shareholders should have 55% of the equity ownership in the merged entity, with the former Company B shareholders holding the remaining 45%.In addition to considering the stand-alone valuation of each company, a contribution analysis should be constructed based upon sales, EBITDA, equity and other financial metrics. The valuations and contribution analysis then provides a range of exchange ratios (or ownership percentages) to conduct negotiations.While the valuation and contribution math may be straightforward (or not at all), negotiating merger transactions can be complicated since one party is not paid to go away. Mercer Capital is often hired on a joint basis by entities seeking to negotiate a merger transaction.While the final decision to go through with the merger remains with our clients in this situation, we serve as an independent advisor to both sides of the merger to establish the relative value parameters. An independent assessment of the relative values can help tremendously in building confidence with shareholders and boards that the terms of the merger are reasonable for both sides.True-UpsAs with most deals, merger transactions usually include certain post-transaction “true-ups” to ensure that each entity delivers adequate levels of working capital (or other assets) at closing. A typical structure is for the parties to create escrow accounts funded with cash in amounts proportional to the post-merger ownership percentages. These escrow accounts serve as a mechanism to adjust for any shortfall at one entity.If needed, a portion of the escrow cash is contributed into the merged entity, serving to make-up for any shortfall at closing. This keeps the ownership percentages at the agreed-upon relative value percentages. The excess cash left in the escrow accounts after these adjustments is distributed to the shareholders of the former (now merged) entities.In our experience, shareholders and boards do not like the uncertainty of shifting ownership percentages – this escrow structure prevents the percentages from changing based on post-closing adjustments.Who Is in Charge?As with any acquisition, an organized post-transaction integration is critical to the success of a merger.No matter how compelling the economics of a combination may be, the cultural fit of the two businesses will be a key element in determining the eventual success of the transaction. From the initial stages of the transaction, issues related to the cultural fit should be discussed and strategies should be implemented to increase the probability of a successful integration.A basic question to be addressed early in the process is who will run the combined company. Public companies sometimes use co-CEOs, but not often for good reason. There should not be any question who is in charge, the responsibilities of subordinates, and the chain of command and accountability.A comprehensive agreement on overall governance structures (including regional management, board construction, etc.) can provide some comfort for the side that might see themselves as being on the losing end of the potentially more political question of chief executive.Shareholder control is another issue that has to be dealt with explicitly. If both entities consist of a large number of shareholders with no shareholder in direct control, the control issue is moot because there will be no controlling shareholder in the merged entity. Such prospective mergers are easier to negotiate because one shareholder (or voting block) does not have to give up control.However, when one or both entities has a controlling shareholder (which could be represented by a single individual or a family block of stock), loss of control in a combined company may trump compelling economics. Both parties need to examine this issue closely and provide for conflict resolution mechanisms through the corporation’s by-laws and buy-sell agreements. Like marriages, getting out of a transaction is a lot harder and more expensive than entering into it.Concluding ThoughtsWe think mergers are a viable strategy to expand a business when the economics and social aspects are compelling for many small and middle market companies. Reasonable valuations and a detailed contribution analysis are the initial building blocks to quantify the economics. Mercer Capital is an active transaction advisor. While we most often are retained by one party, some of our most successful and rewarding projects have been those where we were jointly retained by both parties to advise on the transaction structure. If you are considering a merger (or in the middle of a current transaction), please call one of our Transaction Advisory Group professionals to assist.
The Importance of a Quality of Earnings Study (1)
The Importance of a Quality of Earnings Study
This is the fifth article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. Our focus in this article is on how the quality of earnings (QoE) analysis can help acquirers better analyze possible acquisition targets.
Buy-Side Considerations
Buy-Side Considerations
In this series of articles, we cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. Read the articles in this series.
Statutory Fair Value vs Fair Market Value (and Fair Value): Not So Subtle Differences
Statutory Fair Value vs Fair Market Value (and Fair Value): Not So Subtle Differences
Over the past year we have seen an uptick in transactions (and contemplated transactions) in which boards seek to reduce the number of shareholders via reverse stock splits and cash out mergers. The central question for a board aside from fairness and process is: what price?While the terms “fair market value” and “fair value” appear to be similar, they are very different concepts.When seeking a business valuation, it is critical to ensure that the appraisal is performed according to the relevant and proper standards.Transactional ValueFair market value (“FMV”) and fair value as defined in Accounting Standards Codification (“ASC”) 820 define value in the context of a market clearing price. Statutory fair value (“FV”) is defined in state statutes and is interpreted through precedents established in case law over the year, most notably in Delaware.The accounting profession defines fair value in ASC 820 as:The price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date.The accounting profession defines fair value from the seller’s perspective with the indicated value used for a variety of purposes including disclosure in financial statements for Level 1, 2, and 3 assets and liabilities.In the business valuation community, FMV is the most widely recognized valuation standard. FMV is the primary standard used in valuations for estate tax, gifting, and tax compliance.The IRS defines fair market value in Revenue Ruling 59-60 as:The price at which the property would change hands between a willing buyer and a willing seller when the former is not under any compulsion to buy and the latter is not under any compulsion to sell, both parties having reasonable knowledge of relevant facts.What brings hypothetical, willing buyers and sellers to the intersection point of fair market value is their respective assessments and negotiations regarding the expected cash flows, risk, and growth associated with the subject interest. Depending on the corporate governance of the specific interest, fair market value also may incorporate discounts to reflect a business interest’s lack of control or lack of marketability. 1, 2Expropriated ValueStatutory fair value is governed by state law and interpreted by state courts in which dissenting shareholders to certain corporate transactions (e.g., a merger approved by a shareholder vote) petition the court for the fair value of their shares.Most state statutes provide appraisal rights that allow shareholders to obtain payment of the FV of their shares in the event of various corporate actions, including amendments to the articles of incorporation that reduce the number shares owned to a fraction of a share if the corporation has the right or obligation to repurchase the fractional share.In 1950, the Delaware Supreme Court offered this interpretation of fair value:“The basic concept of (fair) value under the appraisal statutes is that the (dissenting) stockholder is entitled to be paid for that which had been taken from him viz. his proportionate interest in a going concern. By value of the stockholder’s proportionate interest in the corporate enterprise is meant the true intrinsic value of his stock which has been taken by merger.”In effect, the noncontrolling shareholder who is dissenting to a transaction is entitled to his or her pro rata share of value of the company as interpreted in most jurisdictions. As a result, the controlling shareholder cannot expropriate value from the minority shareholder who is being forced out. Therefore, some state statutes explicitly declare and most case law affirms the view that neither a discount for lack of control and/or an illiquidity discount should be considered in determining fair value. 3While there is no official valuation hierarchy in the Delaware Court of Chancery, based upon a review of recent cases a few observations can be made:Unaffected stock price immediately before the transaction announcement in an efficient market (with regards to both volume and information) is the best indication of valueDeal price is a reliable indicator if the analysis excludes the benefit of synergiesNo recognized valuation methods have been ruled outThe discounted cash flow method is generally one of the preferred valuation methods if unable to observe efficient transaction prices that occurred before the transactionThe observations from Delaware case law about the meaning of statutory FV are reflected in some states’ business corporation act. For instance, FV according to the Guam Business Corporation Act §281301(d) shall be determined:Immediately before the effectuation of the corporate action to which the shareholder objects excluding any appreciation or depreciation in anticipation of the corporate action objected to;Using customary and current valuation concepts and techniques generally employed for similar businesses in the context of the transaction requiring appraisal; andWithout discounting for lack of marketability or minority status except, if appropriate, for amendments to the articles pursuant to §281302 (a)(5).Shown below is a graphic detailing the different levels of value and how we at Mercer Capital think about them in relation to fair value and fair market value.Controlling interest basis refers to the value of the enterprise as a whole and may be analyzed from two perspectives:Strategic Control Value is best described as Investment Value, based on individual investment requirements and expectations. The strategic control level of value is not generally consistent with FMV, in that it considers the motivations of a specific buyer as opposed to a hypothetical buyer. In other words, the “strategic control premium” is often deemed to be outside both the fair market value and statutory fair value standards. Most bank M&A deals take place at this level of value given cost save assumptions that are common in the industry. In a statutory fair value appraisal, deal value generally may not include the benefit of synergies.Financial Control Value is most often consistent with the fair market value and statutory fair value standards because (i) the underlying premise is a going concern; (ii) it typically does not include any premiums that might be paid by a buyer with specific motivations and the ability to implement synergistic structural and financial changes; and (iii) no minority interest or marketability discounts are applied.Marketable minority interest basis refers to the value of a minority interest, lacking control, but enjoying the benefit of liquidity as if it were freely tradable in an active market. The marketable minority level of value also is an enterprise level of value that may align with the financial control value.Nonmarketable minority interest basis refers to the value of a minority interest, lacking both control and market liquidity. The standard of value for a nonmarketable minority interest valuation is usually fair market value and is seldom statutory fair value.ConclusionMercer Capital has decades of experience working with boards of directors regarding statutory fair value in the context of transactions that create appraisal rights and dissenters’ rights. While we sometimes are called to assist in such matters once a transaction has occurred, it is better to address the issue of fair value (and fairness) beforehand. Please call if we can assist your institution.1 Valuation of Noncontrolling Interests in Business Entities Electing to be Treated as S Corporations for Federal Tax Purposes, page 8, Accessed Online March 31, 2022 | https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-utl/S%20Corporation%20Valuation%20Job%20Aid%20for%20IRS%20Valuation%20Professionals.pdf2 Statutory Fair Value, Accessed Online March 25, 2022, https://mercercapital.com/content/uploads/MerceCapital-Statutory-Fair-Value.pdf.3 Tri-Continental v. Battye, 74 A 2d 71, 72 (Delaware 1950)
FreightTech Update
FreightTech Update

Automated Trucks, VC Frenzy, and the Rise of Brokerages

The COVID-19 pandemic brought economic hardship to many. The second quarter of 2020 might go down as one of the quickest economic downturns ever recorded. However, in an effort to protect the economy, the Fed created an extremely hospitable environment for venture capital, and with the glaring supply chain issues, FreightTech became a cushy landing place for investor’s money. We have written about venture capital and FreightTech before, and it has only gotten bigger since then.
First Quarter 2022 Review:  Volatility Resurfaces
First Quarter 2022 Review: Volatility Resurfaces
The first quarter of 2022 marked the most volatile period since the first quarter of 2020.The quarter began with significant deterioration in the market’s outlook for growth stocks, particularly those lacking demonstrable earning power.Then, a geopolitical crisis, building for some time, intensified with the invasion of a European country, roiling markets ranging from commodities to equities.Last, the Federal Reserve announced, as expected, a 25 basis point change in its benchmark rate and telegraphed six more rate increases in 2022, taking the Federal Funds rate to nearly 2.00% by year-end 2022.In a speech on March 21, 2022, though, Chairman Powell suggested a greater likelihood that future Fed moves may occur in 50 basis point, rather than 25 basis point, increments to combat inflation, which mirrors the position taken by Governor Bullard in dissenting to the Fed’s 25 basis point rate change at the mid-March meeting.The following tables summarize key metrics we track regarding equities, fixed income, and commodity markets leading up to the invasion of Ukraine on February 23, 2022 and thereafter.Equity IndicesIndex data per S&P Capital IQ ProBroad market indices contracted through February 23, 2022, driven by valuation concerns for growth stocksBank stocks remained stable through February 23, 2022, as valuations remained reasonable relative to historical normsSince February 23, 2022 bank stocks have experienced modest pressure, primarily among larger banks that may have some exposure to RussiaWhile markets were volatile after the Ukraine invasion, broad market averages reported a robust recovery in the week of March 18, 2022 and continued gaining into last weekTreasury RatesTreasury yields per FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTreasury rates increased during 1Q22, with a greater share of the expansion occurring prior to February 23, 2022The yield curve flattened in 1Q22Yields on 3- and 10-year Treasuries were virtually identical as of March 24, 2022, relative to a 55 bps spread as of year-end 2021Debt SpreadsCorporate Credit Spreads per FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CMBS spreads per ICE Index PlatformCorporate debt and commercial MBS option-adjusted spreads widened in 1Q22Prior to the Ukraine invasion, high yield bond spreads widened to a similar degree, regardless of rating.However, since the invasion, BB-rated issuers have outperformed B- and CCC-rated issuers1Q22 spread widening in BBB-rated corporate bonds (40 bps) is the largest since 1Q20Although commercial real estate may appear somewhat more insulated from geopolitical considerations than the corporate bond market, CMBS spreads widened to a greater degree than corporate bond spreads in 1Q22CommoditiesOil price represents West Texas Intermediate; WTI prices per FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Corn & wheat prices per BloombergCommodities experienced higher price appreciation than other asset classes in 1Q22Wheat prices, already rising prior to the invasion, leapt after it.This reflects potential production disruptions in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and transportation issues in the Black SeaOil prices dropped in the weeks after the invasion of Ukraine but still notched a 49% increase in 1Q22Our agriculturally-oriented banks still expect U.S. farmers to fare well in 2022, despite higher input prices and difficulty obtaining some supplies like fertilizerResidential MortgagesThe 30-year mortgage rate, as reported by Freddie Mac, exceeded 4.00% in the week ended March 18, 2022.This is the first time the mortgage rate has exceeded 4% since May 2019.For the week ended March 25, 2022, the 30-year mortgage rate climbed higher to 4.42%Mortgage rates widened to a greater extent than long-term Treasury rates in 1Q22UWM Holdings, the largest wholesale mortgage lender, in its March 1, 2022 earnings release projected that 1Q22 originations would decline by 24% to 40% from 4Q21 originations.Mortgage rates have increased further after it provided this estimate
How to Approach a Target and Perform Initial Due Diligence (1)
How to Approach a Target and Perform Initial Due Diligence
This is the second article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. If you wish to read the rest of the series, click here. Business is good for many middle market operators and investment capital is generally plentiful. Are you an investor whose capital is industry agnostic, or does your capital need to be targeted at add-on investments that build on a pre existing business platform? All business investors are “financial” investors - the real question is how “strategic” is their ability to leverage the assets of the target. Providing practical guidance on approaching a business target and conducting initial due diligence depends on the investor’s criterion, competencies, and execution bandwidth. In this article we assume you have identified a target or group of targets and you are attempting to learn enough about the target to determine whether to proceed with developing a meaningful indication of interest. Of course, an active seller is likely prepared for the sale process and represented by an advisor who is postured to provide the financial and operating information necessary for investors to quickly determine the suitability of a deal (i.e., a pitchbook and defined protocols for communication and information access). However, many desirable targets may not be seeking a sale because business conditions are favorable, and their businesses have been managed to provide options to the owners regarding continued independence and turn-key ownership and management succession. If the former, you, as a prospective buyer may have already pinged on the radar of the seller, and if the later, you have mined for target opportunities and are ready for the next step to accomplish an acquisition. Our focus here is to summarize some practical considerations for approaching and vetting an identified target.First ContactM&A is not easy. For every transaction that is announced a very long list of items for both the buyer and seller were satisfactorily addressed before two parties entered into a merger or purchase agreement. For the acquirers, first impressions matter a lot. There are no second chances to make a good first impression.How a target is contacted can be pivotal to achieving receptivity and obtaining a critical mass of information. In cases where market familiarity or professional collegiality already exist, it can make sense for an investor’s senior leadership to make direct contact with the target’s senior management and/or owners.In cases where the target is not familiar to the investor, then following a respectful and empathic set of protocols is key. Investors using professional advisors and/or who involve their senior decision makers are likely to be taken seriously by the target. Peer-to-peer contacts too far down the chain of command are more likely to be dismissed.Owners and senior managers are keen to prevent the rumor mill from derailing business momentum and disturbing internal calm. A mindful and considerate process of first contact and initial discussions that is highly sensitive to the discrete nature of exploratory discussions will increase the probability that initial discussions and diligence can proceed to the next phase as a relationship based on trust develops.In our experience, contacting a target through a financial advisor has an important signal function that the potential acquirer is serious and has initiated a process to prioritize and vet targets. Diligence procedures will be thorough and well organized; deal consideration and terms will be professionally scrutinized. Alternatively, some business owners and investors who initiate a process may be perceived as canvassing to see what sticks to the proverbial wall. This can inadvertently serve to inflate seller requirements and expectations assuming the initial inquiry is successful.Initial Due DiligenceOnce the initial contact is established, it is important to follow-up immediately with an actionable agenda. Actions and processes include:Non-disclosure agreement;Information request list;Clear set of communication protocols involving specified individuals;A centrally controlled and managed information gateway;Establishment time frames and target dates for investigative due diligence, IOI, LOI, pre-closing due diligence, deal documentation, and ultimately closing. Organization begets pace and that pace culminates in a go or no-go decision.Preliminary ValuationProcedurally, our buy-side clients typically request that we perform a valuation of the target using a variety of considerations including the standalone value of the target and potentially the value of the target inclusive of expected synergies and efficiencies.A properly administered valuation process facilitates an understanding of the target’s business model, its tangible attributes, its intangible value, its operating capacity, its competitive and industry correlations, and many other considerations that investors use not only for the assessment of target feasibility but as an inward-looking exercise to assess the pre-existing business platform.For first-time buy-side clients, our services may also include building leverageable templates and processes for future M&A projects. Additionally, our processes may also be critical to the buyer’s Board consents, the buyer’s financing arrangements, and other managerial and operating arrangements required to promote target integration.Concluding ThoughtsConducting target searches, establishing contact, and performing initial due diligence are critical aspects of successful buy-side outcomes. In general, there are as many (if not more) consequential considerations for buyers as there are for sellers.Some buyers covet the conquest and go it alone without buy-side advisory representation. Conversely, even seasoned investors can benefit from third-party buy-side processes. Unseasoned acquirers may find their first forays into the M&A buy-side world untenable without proper guidance and bench strength.As providers of litigation support services, we have seen deals that have gone terribly wrong as if predestined by inadequate buy-side investigation. As providers of valuation services, we have valued thousands of enterprises for compliance purposes and strategic needs. As transaction advisors, we have rendered fairness opinions, conducted buy- and sell-side engagements and advised buyers concerning a wide variety of deal structures and financings. If you plan to take a walk on the buy-side, let Mercer Capital’s 40 years of advisory excellence guide and inform you.
How to Approach a Target and Perform Initial Due Diligence
How to Approach a Target and Perform Initial Due Diligence
This is the second article in a series on buy-side considerations. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. Our focus in this article is to summarize some practical considerations for approaching and vetting an identified target.
Identifying Acquisition Targets and Assessing Strategic Fit (1)
Identifying Acquisition Targets and Assessing Strategic Fit
Many observers predict that the market is ripe for an unprecedented period of M&A activity, as the aging of the current generation of senior leadership and ownership pushes many middle-market companies to seek an outright sale or some other form of liquidity. Obviously, not all companies are in this position. For those positioned for continued ownership, an acquisition strategy could be a key component of long-term growth. For most middle-market companies, especially those that have not been acquisitive in the past, executing on a single acquisition (much less a broader acquisition strategy) can be fraught with risk. There are many elements, from finding the right targets, to pricing the deal correctly, to successfully integrating the acquired business that could derail efforts to build shareholder value through acquisition. This article is the first in a series on buy-side considerations that we will share over the next few months. In this series, we will cover buy-side topics from the perspective of middle-market companies looking to enter the acquisition market. If you wish to read the rest of the series, click here.Our first topic starts at the beginning – identifying and assessing acquisition targets.Identifying Acquisition Targets and Assessing Strategic FitWith aggregate M&A activity setting records in 2021 and continuing a strong pace in 2022, many businesses are exhibiting a thirst for growth or conversely their shareholders are eyeing an exit at favorable valuations.With labor tightness, supply chain disruptions for capital goods, and financing costs fluctuating in real time, buyers and sellers are increasingly strategic in their mindset. Inflation and interest rates represent potential headwinds, but pent-up demand and plentiful war chests are likely to fuel elevated M&A activity in the foreseeable future. More than a few baby boomers have held on to their business assets making ownership succession and liquidity significant concerns.Additionally, many middle market business assets are churned by financial investors with defined holding periods. Large corporate players and private equity buy-out groups generally have their own corporate development teams. However, small and mid-market companies, occupied with day-to-day operations, often find themselves with limited bandwidth and a lack of financial advisory resource to identify, vet, and develop a well-crafted strategic M&A rationale and then execute it.This article provides touch points and practicalities for identifying viable merger and acquisition targets and assessing strategic fit.Motivation and ObjectivesA rejuvenated appreciation for optimal capital structures and fine-tuned operations has largely debunked the oversimplified notion that bigger is always better. However, right-sizing is about achieving a proper, often larger scale at the proper time for a supportable price. A classic question in strategizing to achieve the right size is that of "buy" versus "build."Many acquisitions are as much about securing scarce or unavailable hard assets and labor resources as they are about expanding one’s market space.Whether your investment mandate is to alleviate scarcities or to achieve vertical or horizontal diversification and expansion, tuning your investment criterion and financial tolerance to motivations and objectives is key.These collective questions, among others, help address the who and the what of recognizing potential targets and assessing the pricing and structural feasibility of a business combination in whatever form that may take (outright purchase or merger in some form).Given our experiences from years of advising clients, we have learned that the most obvious or simple solution is generally best. Many buyers already know the preferable target candidates but lack the ability to assess and the capacity to engage those targets. Additionally, many well-capitalized buyers lack the financial discipline to score, rank, and sequence their target opportunities with the expertise employed by large, active corporate developers and private equity investors.Understanding the magnitude and timing of the returns resulting from your investment options is critical. Constructing financial models to study the options of now-versus-later and the interactive nature of deal pricing, terms, and financing is vital to the process. These technical and practical needs must be addressed competently to grant buyers the freedom of mind and energy to critically assess deal intangibles that often influence the overall decision to move forward with a target or not. Cultural fit, command and control for successful integration, brand and product synergies, and many other factors ultimately manifest in an investment’s total return on investment.Scoring opportunities by way of traditional corporate finance disciplines using NPV and IRR modeling as well as using various frameworks such as SWOT Analysis or Porter's Five Forces is highly recommended. However, blind ambition and soulless math may not result in the best choice of targets.One common sense and often overlooked assessment is how a seller’s motivations may have a bearing on the risk assessment of the buyer. A seller today may be alerting today’s buyer about future realities the buyer may experience. In some cases, sellers are motivated by a deficit of ownership and management succession. In other cases, a seller’s motive may be the result of industry dynamics and disruption that may one day be the concern of today’s consolidators. Get informed, get objective and be rational when assessing a target. If you cannot do that with in-house resources, get help. If you have in-house resources, have your mandates reviewed and your target analysis checked by an experienced advisor with the right balance of valuation and transaction awareness.Take a Walk in the Seller’s ShoesWe know that sellers often fear opening-up their financials and operations to certain logical strategic buyers. This may stem from generations of fierce competition or from a concern that not selling means the seller has revealed sensitive information that will compromise their competitive position or devalue the business in a future deal. Many sellers are extremely sensitive to retaining their staff and keeping faith with suppliers and customers. Buyers should understand that sellers require comfort and assurance regarding confidentiality.Being proactive with non-disclosure agreements and even better using a third party such as Mercer Capital to establish contact may facilitate a process of mutual assessment that is initially a no-go for many tentative sellers. Buyers that demonstrate empathy for the seller’s position and who employ a well-conceived process to initiate exchange are more likely to gain access to essential information.It is common for the seller’s initial market outreach to set the hurdle price for the winning buyer. That may occur as a result of the seller having reasonably skilled advisors who help establish deal expectations or through first-round indications of interest. As such, it should be no surprise for truly strategic buyers to be able to hurdle the offers of first round financial buyers or less optimal fringe buyers.Buyers should also be aware that third party deals must win against the seller’s potential ability to execute a leveraged buy-out with family members or senior managers, which may facilitate favorable tax outcomes versus the asset-based structures in open-market M&A processes. Of course, strategic buyers should be equally aware that many private equity or family-office buyers may also be strategic in their motivations and pricing capabilities based on pre existing portfolio holdings.Awareness of competing concerns for the target must be considered if you intend to win the deal. Buyers, with the help of skilled advisors, can actually help sellers address the balance of considerations that underpin a decision to sell. Having plans for human resource, communicating employee benefits and compensation structures, and laying the groundwork for a smooth integration process are part of walking the talk of a successful acquisition.Concluding ThoughtsWhether your motivations are based on synergies, efficiencies, or simply on the inertial forces of consolidation that cycle through many industries, a well-organized and disciplined process is paramount to examining and approaching the market for hopeful growth opportunities.Regardless of your past experiences and deal acumen, we recommend retaining a transaction advisory team familiar with your industry and possessing the valuation expertise to maximize transaction opportunities and communicate the merits your firm has to offer the target and all its stakeholders.Since Mercer Capital’s founding in 1982, we have worked with a broad range of public and private companies and financial institutions. As financial advisors, Mercer Capital looks to assess the strategic fit of every prospect through initial planning, rigorous industry and financial analysis, target or buyer screening, negotiations, and exhaustive due diligence so that our clients reach the right decision regardless of outcome. Our dedicated and responsive deal team stands ready to help your business manage the transaction process.
Identifying Acquisition Targets and Assessing Strategic Fit
Identifying Acquisition Targets and Assessing Strategic Fit
With aggregate M&A activity setting records in 2021 and continuing a strong pace in 2022, many businesses are exhibiting a thirst for growth or conversely their shareholders are eyeing an exit at favorable valuations. This article provides touch points and practicalities for identifying viable merger and acquisition targets and assessing strategic fit.
Acquire or Be Acquired (AOBA) 2022:  Review & Recap
Acquire or Be Acquired (AOBA) 2022: Review & Recap
After going virtual in 2021, the Omicron waved peaked just in time for the Acquire or Be Acquired (AOBA) conference to resume its normal physical presence in Phoenix, Arizona during late January.The virtual sessions in 2021 lacked their normal impact, given the inability, through face-to-face communications, to delve deeper into emerging strategies and industry trends with peers and subject matter experts.The most common sentiment expressed this year was simply the gratitude that we could gather once again, connecting with existing industry contacts and establishing new relationships.AOBA’s emphasis has evolved.When we first attended the conference, the sessions emphasized acquisitions of failed banks to such a degree that presenters struggled to avoid overlapping content.Then, the conference shifted to emerging from the Great Financial Crisis and the transition to unassisted M&A transactions.We still remember the years that distressed debt buyers roamed the halls looking for unsuspecting bankers with loans to sell.More recently, the traditional financial services industry structure—with separate, and somewhat inviolable, silos for banking, insurance, wealth management—has been fractured by new challengers from the FinTech sector.Armed with venture capital funding, a willingness to tolerate near-term losses, and a mindset not shackled by traditional operating strategies, the FinTech challengers have sought product lines prone to automation and homogeneity, like consumer checking accounts and small business lending.However, while seeking to disrupt the banking industry, FinTech companies also need the banking industry for compliance expertise, funding, access to payment rails, and the ability to conduct business across state lines.AOBA 2022 sought to unify several discordant themes.The first theme is fracturing and convergence.While FinTech companies seek to challenge the traditional banking industry, they rely on the industry and, indeed, have entered into M&A transactions to acquire banks.The second theme is threat and opportunity.Banks face challenges from FinTech companies for certain customer segments, but FinTech products and partnerships offer access to new products, new markets, and more efficient operations.For fans of price/tangible book value multiples, though, AOBA 2022 still offered plenty of perspective on recent bank M&A trends.We’ll cover four themes from AOBA 2022.1. FinTech Competitors/Partners & the Nature of CompetitionFinTech’s presence continued to increase at AOBA, both in terms of conference sponsors and mentions throughout the conference.The most popular breakout session we attended was entitled “Crypto/Digital Assets – A Threat or Opportunity for Your Bank,” although it is difficult to ascertain whether the attendance reflects mere curiosity or a leading indicator that more banks will enter the Crypto space.One common thread of FinTech-related presentations is that bankers should take a more expansive view of their competitors.Three FinTech-related companies would rank among the twenty largest U.S. banks, as measured by market capitalization, including Paypal Holdings (#4), Square (#9), and Chime (#12, based on the value implied by its last funding round).One speaker encouraged banks to adopt an “ecosystem” strategy instead of an “industry” strategy, noting that families often have 30 to 40 relationships with financial services providers, defined broadly.1Thus, banks’ strategies should not be defined by traditional boundaries but rather embrace the entire financial “ecosystem” in which a range of competitors seek to displace banks from their traditional roles.In this view, banks compete for customers from the “inside out,” while FinTech companies challenge from the “outside in.”It remains difficult to quantify the direct impact on community banks from the current crop of non-bank competitors.Nevertheless, banks’ strategic plans should evolve to reflect the growing population of well-financed non-traditional competitors, for which the pandemic has in some cases accelerated customer adoption.The last FinTech theme related to “partnerships.”This term has evolved towards a somewhat expansive definition this millennium, with seemingly any relationship (even as a customer/vendor) deemed a “partnership.”Certainly, many banks are evaluating FinTech products, with an eye on both expanding revenues and increasing efficiencies.Others are becoming more intertwined with FinTech companies, either as investors or as the banking platform used by the FinTech company itself.There is some evidence that banks more closely allied with FinTech companies are being warmly received by the market, given their potential revenue upside.When evaluating “partnerships,” we suggest deploying a risk/reward framework like banks use in evaluating other traditional banking products.The lower risk/lower reward end of the spectrum would entail limiting the “partnership” to a particular FinTech product or service, such as for opening consumer checking accounts or automating a lending process.The higher risk/higher reward part of spectrum would include equity investments or facilitating the FinTech’s business strategy using the bank’s balance sheet, compliance expertise, and access to payment rails.Like with any bank product, different banks will fall in different places along this spectrum, given their histories, management and board expertise, shareholder risk tolerance, regulatory relationships, and the like.2. Traditional Bank M&A:Tailwinds & HeadwindsMercer Capital provided its outlook for bank M&A in the December 2021 Bank Watch.Naturally, the investment bankers at AOBA are bullish on bank M&A in 2022.This optimism derives from several sources, including the pressure on revenue from a low interest rate environment and the technological investments needed to keep up with the Joneses.Several headwinds to activity exist though:Some transactions initiated prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 were placed on hold throughout 2020, but negotiations resumed in 2021.These transactions likely enhanced the reported level of deal activity in 2021, but this deal backlog now has likely cleared.With the banking industry consolidating, fewer potential buyers exist.Smaller banks or banks in more rural areas may face a dwindling number of potential acquirers.Meanwhile, the remaining acquirers may seek to focus on larger transactions in strategic markets.This could lead to a supply/demand imbalance, although non-traditional buyers—read credit unions—could fill the void.After the drama over the FDIC’s leadership, many observers are expecting a more rigorous regulatory review of merger applications, such as around competition issues or fair lending compliance.In the near term, navigating the regulatory thicket would appear most fraught for larger buyers.Another trend to watch is M&A activity involving non-traditional buyers.Mercer Capital’s Jay Wilson presented a session on credit union acquisitions of banks, focusing on the perspective credit unions take when evaluating potential acquisition targets.In a reversal of roles, FinTech companies now have entered the scene as acquirers.In February 2022, SoFi completed its acquisition of Golden Pacific Bancorp, and several other precedent transactions exist.3. Subordinated Debt:Act Now?The subordinated debt market has been quite active, with bank holding companies issuing debt typically with a ten-year term, a fixed rate for the first five years and a variable rate tied to SOFR for the second five years, and a call option in favor of the issuer after five years.Pricing tightened throughout 2021.Through early 2022, pricing of newly-issued subordinated debt has remained stable in the 3.50% range, despite rising Treasury rates.This implies that the spread between the fixed rate on the subordinated debt and five-year swap rates has tightened, falling to levels even below those observed in 2021.Subordinated debt counts as Tier 2 capital at the bank holding company level but can be injected into the bank subsidiary as Tier 1 capital.If bankers expect rising loan volume as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic, then it may behoove institutions to issue subordinated debt now and lock in a low cost source of capital.4. The Regulatory Wild CardSome attendees expect greater regulatory enforcement and rule making activity in certain areas, with the most likely suspect being fair lending.However, leadership at some regulatory agencies remains in flux, such as at the OCC where President Biden’s nominee was withdrawn in the face of Senate opposition.This would not be a constraint, though, at the CFPB, which has a Senate confirmed director who appears ready to take a more active stance on fair lending matters.Interestingly, many larger banks have moved to limit overdraft and insufficient funds charges, even absent any actual (as opposed to hinted at) regulatory changes.Tightening practices around overdrafts appears to be another risk to community banks, which may lack the revenue diversification that permits larger banks to absorb a loss of consumer banking fee revenue.ConclusionWe sense that AOBA is moving into a new era, as it did when the Great Financial Crisis passed.Attendees and sponsors are, to an ever greater extent, coming from outside the traditional banking industry.This mirrors the banking industry itself, with its widening set of non-traditional competitors targeting different customer niches.Future conferences will reveal the extent to which traditional and non-traditional competitors converge.Regardless of what happens with the intersection of banks and FinTech companies, we can only hope that we’ve attended our last virtual conference.1 See Ronald Adner, Winning the Right Game, How to Disrupt, Defend, and Deliver in a Changing World, The MIT Press, 2021.
Solvency of the Sponsor
Solvency of the Sponsor

2021 was a spectacular year for leverage finance, a once obscure area of the capital markets that has morphed into a stand-alone asset class and money machine for the banks that arrange it. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, leverage loans issued topped $800 billion with over $600 billion absorbed by institutional investors while high-yield bond issuances exceeded $460 billion. Both totals were records, though a significant amount was used to refinance existing debt.
Bank M&A 2022 | Gaining Altitude
Bank M&A 2022 | Gaining Altitude
At this time last year, bank M&A could be described as “on the runway” as economic activity accelerated following the short, but deep recession in the spring. Next year, activity should gain altitude. Most community banks face intense earnings pressure as PPP fees end, operating expenses rise with inflation, and core NIMs remain under pressure unless the Fed can hike short-term policy rates more than a couple of times. Good credit quality is supportive of activity, too.Should and will are two different verbs, however.One wildcard that will impact activity and pricing is the public market multiples of would be acquirers. Consideration for all but the smallest sellers often includes the issuance of common shares by the buyer. When bank stocks trade at high multiples, sellers obtain “high” prices though less value than when public market multiples are low and sellers receive low(er) prices though more value.If bank stock prices perform reasonably well in 2022, after a fabulous 2021 in which the NASDAQ Bank Index increased 40% through December 28, then activity probably will trend higher as more community banks look to sell. MOEs may be easier to negotiate, too. If bank stocks are weak for whatever reason, then activity probably will slow.A Recap of 2021As of December 17, 2021, there have been 206 announced bank and thrift deals compared to 117 in 2020. During the halcyon pre-COVID years, about 270 transactions were announced each year during 2017-2019.As a percent of charters, acquisition activity in 2021 accounted for about 4% of the number of banks and thrifts as of January 1.Since 1990, the range is about 2% to 4%, although during 2014 to 2019 the number of banks absorbed each year exceeded 4% and topped 5% in 2019. As of September 30, there were 4,914 bank and thrift charters compared to 9,904 as of year-end 2000 and about 18,000 charters in 1985 when a ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court paved the way for national consolidation.Pricing—as measured by the average price/tangible book value (P/TBV) multiple—improved in 2021. As always, color is required to explain the price/earnings (P/E) multiple based upon reported earnings.The national average P/TBV multiple increased to 155% from 135% in 2020, although deal activity was light in 2020. As shown in Figure 1, the average transaction multiple since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) peaked in 2018 at 174% then declined to 158% in 2019 as the Fed was forced to cut short-term policy rates three times during 3Q19 in an acknowledgment that the December and probably September 2018 hikes were ill-advised.Earnings—rather than tangible book value — drive pricing as do public market valuations of acquirers who issue shares as part of the seller consideration. Nonetheless, drawing conclusions based upon unadjusted reported earnings sometimes can be misleading.As an example, the national median P/E for banks that agreed to be acquired in 2018 approximated 25x, in part, because many banks that are taxed as C corporations wrote down deferred tax assets at year-end 2017 following the enactment of corporate tax reform. Plus, forward earnings reflected a reduction in the maximum federal tax rate to 21% from 35%.Also, the median P/E in 2021 fell to about 15x from 17x in 2019 and 2020 in part because the earnings of many sellers included substantial PPP-related income that will largely evaporate after this year.Buyers focus on the pro forma earnings multiple with all expense savings in addition to EPS accretion and the amount of time it takes to recoup dilution to tangible BVPS. Our take is that most deals entail a P/E based upon pro forma earnings with fully phased-in expense saves of 7x to 10x unless there are unusual circumstances.Public Market Multiples vs Acquisition MultiplesClick here to expand the image aboveFigure 2 compares the annual average P/TBV and P/E for banks that were acquired for $50 million to $250 million since 1997 with the SNL Small Cap Bank Index average daily multiple for each year. Among the takeaways are the following:Acquisition pricing as measured by the P/TBV multiple peaked in 1998 (when pooling-of-interest was the predominant accounting method) then bottomed in 2009 (as the GFC ended) and trended higher until 2018.Since pooling ended in 2001, the “pay-to-trade” multiple as measured by the average acquisition P/TBV multiple relative to the average index P/TBV multiple, has remained in a relatively narrow range of roughly 0.9 to 1.15 other than during 2009 and 2010.The reduction in both the public and acquisition P/TBV multiples since the GFC corresponds to the adoption of a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) by the Fed during 2008 that has been in place ever since other than 2017-2019.P/E multiples based upon LTM earnings have shown little trend with a central tendency around 20x other than 1998 (1990s peak), 2018 (tax reform implementation) and 2020-2021 (COVID distortions).Acquisition P/Es have tended to reflect a pay-to-trade multiple of 1.25 since the GFC but as noted what really matters is the P/E based upon pro forma earnings with expense saves. To the extent the pro forma earnings multiple is 7-10x, the pay-to-trade earnings multiples typically are below 1.0 to the extent buyers are trading above 10x forward earnings.Click here to expand the image aboveClick here to expand the image abovePremium Trends SubduedPublic market investors often focus on what can be referred to as icing vs the cake in the form of acquisition premiums relative to the pre-announcement prices. Investors tend to talk about acquisition premiums as an alpha generator, but long-term performance (or lack thereof) of the target is what drives shareholder returns. Sometimes the market is suprised by acquisitions with an outsized premium, but in recent years premiums often have been modest.As shown in Figure 4, the average one-day premium for transactions announced in 2021 that exceeded $100 million in which the buyer and seller were publicly traded was about 9%, a level that was comparable to the prior few years excluding 2020. For buyers, the average day one reduction in price was less than 1%, though there are exceptions when investors question the pricing (actually, the exchange ratio). For instance, First Interstate (NASDAQ: FIBK) saw its shares drop 7.4% after it announced it would acquire Great Western for about $2 billion on September 16, 2021.About Mercer CapitalM&A entails a lot of moving parts of which “price” is only one. It is especially important for would be sellers to have a level-headed assessment of the investment attributes of the acquirer’s shares to the extent merger consideration will include the buyer’s common shares. Mercer Capital has roughly 40 years of experience in assessing mergers, the investment merits of the buyer’s shares, and the like. Please call if we can help your board in 2022 assess a potential strategic transaction.
Insurance Valuation Services for Financial Sponsors
Insurance Valuation Services for Financial Sponsors
In recent years, financial sponsors such as private equity, venture capital firms, investment companies, and family offices have taken a more prominent role in funding and growing firms in the insurance industry. From insurance brokerage/distribution to underwriting to InsurTech start-ups, there are many opportunities for investment in the insurance sector and transaction activity in the space has steadily been increasing.Mercer Capital has worked with financial sponsors in the insurance industry for years and we understand both the dynamics of the industry as well as the accounting and valuation issues that are likely to be encountered.Key areas where Mercer Capital can help include:Valuations of Shares/Units for 409A / ASC 718 Compliance - If you anticipate granting equity to founders or key management at acquired companies, using rollover equity as part of a growth strategy, or issuing options or RSUs as part of your employee compensation plans, supportable and defensible valuations are critically important.Valuations for Financial Reporting – Acquisitive growth strategies will likely necessitate ASC 805 purchase price allocations, earn-out liability measurements, and goodwill impairment testing.Financial Due Diligence – We provide financial due diligence and quality of earnings reports on target companies, including analysis/trending of the pro forma P&L, potential earnings adjustments, working capital assessments, unit economics analysis, and other areas of financial analysis.Financial Opinions (Fairness and Solvency Opinions) – Certain types of transactions, related-party issues, or fiduciary concerns can lead a board to seek an independent opinion of fairness or solvency as it pertains to a transaction involving the subject company. These situations might include going-private transactions, special dividends, and leveraged recapitalizations.Portfolio Valuation for ASC 820 Compliance – We provide a range of services to assist fund managers with the preparation and/or review of periodic fair value marks. These services are cost-effective and include a series of established procedures designed to provide both internal and investor confidence in the fair value determinations. To discuss any of these services in confidence, please contact a Mercer Capital professional today.
Top Considerations for Acquirers When Evaluating a Potential Bank Acquisition
Top Considerations for Acquirers When Evaluating a Potential Bank Acquisition
With year-end approaching, we are starting our annual process of recapping 2021 and considering the outlook for 2022. In doing so, we turned our attention to the bank M&A data to see what trends were emerging. While the number of bank and thrift deals is on pace to roughly double from 2020 levels (117 deals in 2020 vs 199 deals through 11/22/21), the number of deals still remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Valuations at exit illustrate a similar trend with the median price/earnings nationally for announced deals at ~15.0x earnings and the average price/tangible multiple at ~1.54x for the YTD period through mid-November 2021. These valuation multiples implied by YTD 2021 deals are up relative to 2020, roughly in line with 2019 levels, but are still down relative to 2017 and 2018 levels.A bank acquisition could present an opportunity for growth to acquirers that are facing a challenging rate and market environment. Some recent data confirmed this as almost half of survey respondents in Bank Director’s 2022 Bank M&A Survey say their institution is likely to purchase another bank by the end of 2022 — a significant increase compared to the previous year, and more in line with the pre-pandemic environment.For those banks considering strategic options, like a sale, 2022 could also be a favorable year, should the improving trends experienced in 2021 continue. These trends include a continued increase in buyer’s interests in acquisitions, a continued expansion of the pool of buyers to include both traditional banks and non-traditional acquirers like credit unions and FinTechs, and the tax environment for sellers and their shareholders remaining favorable relative to historical levels.Against this backdrop of the potential for an active bank M&A environment in 2022, we consider the top three factors that, in our view, should be considered by bank acquirers to help make a successful bank acquisition.1. Developing a Reasonable Valuation Range for the Bank TargetDeveloping a reasonable valuation for a bank target is essential in any economic environment, but particularly in the current environment. We have noted previously that value drivers remain in flux as investors and acquirers assess how strong loan demand and the rate environment will be. In addition to those factors, evaluating earnings, earning power, multiples, and other key value drivers remain important. Bank Director’s 2022 Bank M&A Survey also noted the importance of valuation in bank acquisitions as pricing expectations of potential targets were cited as the top barrier to making a bank acquisition (with 73% of respondents citing this as a barrier).Determining an appropriate valuation for a bank requires assessing a variety of factors related to the bank (such as core earning power, growth/market potential, and risk factors). Then applying the appropriate valuation methodologies – such as a market approach that looks at comparably priced transactions and/or an income approach focused on future earnings potential and developed in a discounted cash flow or internal rate of return analysis. While deal values are often reported and compared based upon multiples of tangible book value, value to specific buyers is a function of projected cash flow estimates that they believe the bank target can produce in the future.Price and valuation can also vary from buyer to buyer as specific buyers may have differing viewpoints on the future earnings and the strategic benefits that the seller may provide. For example, 2021 has seen an emerging trend of non-traditional acquirers such as credit unions and FinTech companies entering the mix. They often have different strategic considerations/viewpoints on a potential bank transaction.2. Appropriately Consider the Strategic Fit of the Bank TargetAs someone who grew up as an avid junior and college tennis player, I have always admired the top pros and found lessons from sports to apply in my personal and business life. With fifteen grand slam titles and fifteen years as the top doubles team globally, the Bryan brothers – Bob and Mike – are often held out as the most successful doubles teams of all time and offer some lessons that we can learn from, in my view. Their team featured a unique combination of a left-handed and right-handed player, which provided variety to challenge their opponents and expand their offensive playbook. It also had many similar intangibles, such as how they approached practicing and playing since they were twins and taught by their father (Wayne) from a young age.Their success illustrates the importance of identifying both the key similarities and differences of a potential partnership to strengthen the chances for success once combined. Key questions to consider regarding strategic fit and identifying the right partner/opportunity for a bank acquisition include: Does the Target expand our geographic footprint into stronger or weaker markets? What types of customers will be acquired (retail/consumer, business, etc.) and at what cost (both initially and over time)? Is there a significant branch/market overlap that could lead to substantial cost savings? Is the seller’s business culture (particularly credit underwriting/client service approach) similar to ours? Will the acquisition diversify or enhance our loan/deposit mix? Will the acquisition provide scale to expand our business lines, balance sheet, and/or technology offerings? What potential cost savings and/or revenue enhancements does the potential acquisition provide?3. Evaluating Key Deal Metrics Implied by the Bank AcquisitionA transaction that looks favorable in terms of valuation and strategic fit may flounder if other key deal metrics are weak. Traditional deal metrics to assess bank targets include capital/book value dilution and the earnback period, earnings accretion/dilution, and an internal rate of return (IRR) analysis. Below we focus a bit more on some fundamental elements to consider when estimating the pro forma balance sheet impact and internal rate of return:Pro Forma Balance Sheet Impact and Earnback PeriodTo consider the pro forma impact of the bank target on the acquirer’s balance sheet, it is important to develop reasonable and accurate fair value estimates as these estimates will impact the pro forma balance sheet at closing as well as future earnings and capital/net worth after closing. In the initial accounting for a bank acquisition, acquired assets and liabilities are marked to their fair values. The most significant marks are typically for the loan portfolio, followed by intangible assets for depositor customer relationship (core deposit). Below are some key factors for acquirers to consider for those fair value estimates:Loan Valuation. The loan valuation process can be complex, with a variety of economic, company, or loan-specific factors impacting interest rate and credit loss assumptions. Our loan valuation process begins with due diligence discussions with the management team of the target to understand their underwriting strategy as well as specific areas of concern in the portfolio. We also typically factor in the acquirer’s loan review personnel to obtain their perspective. The actual valuation often relies upon a) monthly cash flow forecasts considering both the contractual loan terms, as well as the outlook for future interest rates; b) prepayment speeds; c) credit loss estimates based upon qualitative and quantitative assumptions; and d) appropriate discount rates. Problem credits above a certain threshold are typically evaluated on an individual basis.Core Deposit Intangible Valuation. Core deposit intangible asset values are driven by market factors (interest rates) and bank-specific factors such as customer retention, deposit base characteristics, and a bank’s expense and fee structure.Internal Rate of ReturnThe last deal metric that often gets a lot of focus from bank acquirers is the estimated internal rate of return (“IRR”) for the transaction. It is based upon the following key items: the price for the acquisition, the opportunity cost of the cash, and the forecast cash flows/valuation for the target, inclusive of any expense savings and growth/attrition over time in lines of business. This IRR estimate can then be compared to the acquirer’s historical and/or projected return on equity or net worth to assess whether the transaction offers the potential to enhance pro forma cash flow and provide a reasonable return to the acquirer.Mercer Capital Can HelpMercer Capital has significant experience providing valuation, due diligence, and advisory services to bank acquirers across each phase of a potential transaction. Our services for acquirers include providing initial valuation ranges for bank targets, performing due diligence on targets during the negotiation phase, providing fairness opinions and presentations related to the acquisition to the buyer’s management and/or board, and providing valuations for fair value estimates of loans and core deposit before or at closing.We also provide valuation and advisory services to community banks considering strategic options and can assist with developing a process to maximize valuation upon exit. Feel free to reach out to us to discuss your community bank or credit union’s unique situation and strategic objectives in confidence.
CAUTION: Railroad Crossing Ahead
CAUTION: Railroad Crossing Ahead

Minimizing Costs vs. Meeting Demands

Supply chain bottlenecks are causing companies to switch their cargo transportation from rail to truck. According to research conducted by JLL Inc, aggregate demand for goods is still 15% above its levels in the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the pandemic lockdowns began. Suppliers have drastically increased the volume of their output in response to this demand, which, along with other issues, has clogged supply chains. Challenges in retaining drivers and acquiring new trucks and trailers have exacerbated this problem. One of the results of the tangled supply chains has been the shift from rail to road transportation.
Charting the Course of the <i>Build Back Better</i> Bill
Charting the Course of the Build Back Better Bill
By this Thanksgiving, Congress hopes to pass two of the largest bills in American history, the $1 trillion infrastructure bill (which was signed into law by President Biden on November 15th) along with a $1.75 trillion Build Back Better bill. While the infrastructure bill made it through Congress with minimal tax hikes, the passing of the larger reconciliation bill may still create sweeping changes to American tax policy, specific to high-net-worth individuals.Over the past several months, numerous tax code changes have been proposed to fund the two bills, and concessions have whittled away some of the more drastic proposals that made headlines back in the Spring of 2021. In this article, we look to address what policies are still on the table, which are most likely to pass, and what the implications for their passing might be.The Unfolding of Biden’s Economic AgendaOn March 31, 2021, the Biden administration proposed The American Jobs Plan which outlined $1.7 trillion in infrastructure investment targeting a number of projects such as public drinking water, renewed electric grid, high-speed broadband, housing, educational facilities, veteran hospitals, and job training programs among various other projects. The Made in America Tax Plan was proposed simultaneously with the American Jobs Plan as a source of funding. The plan enumerated on several proposed increases to individual and corporate tax rates as well as various other reforms. Some of which have found their way into current legislative efforts. On April 28, 2021, President Biden proposed an additional spending plan, The American Families Plan, targeting “social infrastructural” works such as universal pre-school, universal two-year community college and postsecondary education (since dropped), childcare, paid leave (also has been dropped), nutrition, unemployment insurance, as well as various tax cuts to low-income workers. The Plan also outlined extensive tax reform directly targeting high income earners: setting capital gains and dividend taxes equal to taxes on wages and increasing tax rates on the top tax bracket from 37% to 39.6%. The sticker price of the American Families Plan was set at $1.8 trillion, with $1 trillion in direct government investment and the remainder in tax breaks. On May 28, 2021, the Biden Administration further elaborated on his economic agenda in the unveiling of the 2022 fiscal budget plan to Congress alongside the Treasury Department “Green Book.” On August 10, 2021, the Senate approved the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill with bi-partisan support after months of debate. The bill includes many of the hard infrastructure objectives outlined in Biden’s American Jobs Plan. On the same day, a 100-member Congressional Progressive Caucus declared that it would refuse to vote for the bill before the larger reconciliation bill was passed in the Senate, despite overwhelming popularity of the infrastructure bill in Congress and in polling. In prioritizing Biden’s “soft infrastructure proposals” as specified in the reconciliation bill, Progressives effectively tied the fate of both the infrastructure and reconciliation bill in ongoing negotiations. On August 24, 2021, the House Democrats approved a $3.5 trillion budget resolution which set in motion the reconciliation process by which Democrats could potentially sign the budget into law, requiring only a majority approval while circumventing an inevitable filibuster from Republicans in the Senate. The same measures were taken by the Republican Party with the passing of the American Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017. Support from all 50 Democratic Senators and all but a handful of House Democrats would be needed to pass the legislation as objections from Republicans are widely expected. The budget resolution has since been negotiated down to a $1.9 trillion dollar package. On September 12, 2021, the House and Ways Committee released a revised draft of the tax changes proposed as part of the budget reconciliation bill. Specific tax increases largely targeted trusts and estates and carried significant implications for gift and estate tax planning. On September 27, 2021, under pressure from both moderates and progressives, Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi originally scheduled the House vote for the infrastructure bill for September 27th. But without the passing of the budget resolution bill, and therefore the support of Progressives, Nancy Pelosi postponed the House vote to extend negotiations. In doing so, ongoing government funding was jeopardized without a fiscal 2022 budget and government debt neared the self-imposed debt ceiling. On September 30, 2021, the last day of the federal calendar, Congress narrowly avoided a government shut down by passing a temporary package funding the government through December 3, 2021 while the House suspended the debt ceiling through December 2022. The increase in the debt ceiling is widely expected to be rejected by Senate Republicans. On October 21, 2021, the New York Times reported, Arizona Senator Krysten Sinema, would refuse to vote to support any increases in corporate or individual tax rates. The opposition came as a surprise to many and left the Democratic party scrambling to secure funding for the Build Back Better Bill from other avenues. On October 28, 2021, President Biden unveiled a $1.75 trillion framework for the Build Back Better social spending bill, a draft of the legislation quickly followed. The announcement was released moments before Mr. Biden departed for Rome followed by Glasgow for the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference. On November 8, 2021, the $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed in the House with bipartisan support after months of debate among members of the Democratic party looking to pass the Build Back Better bill before sending the infrastructure bill to a vote. On November 15, 2021, the $ 1 trillion infrastructure bill was signed into law by President Biden.Proposals, Negotiations, Amendments, and More ProposalsBiden’s historically ambitious proposals made earlier in the year have since been trimmed by months of negotiations with more conservative members of the Democratic party. Most notably Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Krysten Sinema of Arizona have criticized the size of the bill, the tax hikes required for funding the bill, and the speed and process by which the party hopes to pass such landmark legislation. In efforts to gain the support of these two senators, and thereby achieve the unanimous support needed for the reconciliation, Democratic leaders have floated numerous tax proposals in recent months to fund the bill.While many of the tax change proposals outlined in the House and Ways Committee draft for the reconciliation bill were not included in the most recent framework published by the Biden Administration on October 29, 2021, many believe the policies outlined in mid-September may still be in play as negotiations continue amongst the conservative and progressive members of Congress. It is widely believed that the intent behind some of the initial funding proposals outlined by the Biden administration and later incorporated in the House and Ways Committee draft were beyond economics and were intended to combat “wealth inequality” and disparities in effective corporate tax rates.As reported in an article from CNBC, none of the three major holdouts, Joe Manchin, Krysten Sinema, or Bernie Sanders, have committed to supporting the framework as it stands. As many of the initial social spending policies have been cut, including most recently the federal paid family and medical leave proposal, uncertainty remains surrounding the scope of the bill and the funding it will require.Tax changes proposed in the House and Ways Committee draft were numerous, albeit less drastic than those considered earlier in the year. A comprehensive summary of the funding provisions can be found here. Key tax reforms specific to closely held businesses include the following:A reduction in the estate and gift tax exemption effectively reducing the exemption from $11.7 million to $6.0 million per individual.A change in the tax status of grantor trusts. Grantor trusts would be included in the grantor’s taxable estate, and transactions between grantor and a grantor trust would be subject to income tax.Discounts for lack of control and marketability would be disallowed for gifts of entities holding non-business assets such as asset holding entities.An increase in the individual income tax for the top tax bracket from 37% to 39.6%, essentially reversing tax reductions established in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, also passed via the reconciliation processAn increase in the maximum long term capital gains rate to 25% from the current rate of 20%. The effective date was set at September 13, 2021.Elimination of exemptions to the net investment income tax for active participants in the business, which applies a 3.8% tax to a taxpayer’s net investment income when adjusted gross income exceeds a certain threshold. Currently, income earned from active participants in the business is exempt.Limitations on the qualified business income deduction (QBID). The deduction would be subject to a cap once qualified business income exceeds $2.5 million for married couples filing jointly, $2.0 million for single filers, $1.3 million for married taxpayers filing separately, and $50.0 thousand for trusts and estates.Reimplementation of the graduated corporate income tax rate structure. In 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act established a flat rate of 21%. The proposal would restore the graduated rate structure: < $400 thousand : 18% $400 thousand $5 million : 21% (the current rate)$5 million : 26.5%What Made it into the Biden Framework for the Build Back Better Bill?Because of recent opposition from conservative members of Congress, many of the proposed tax reforms recommended in the House and Ways Committee draft back in September were not included in Biden’s Build Back Better framework issued October 28. Funding proposals for the Build Back Better bill issued in Biden’s most recent draft included the following:A 15% minimum tax on corporations based on 15% of adjusted financial statement (book) income rather than recognized income. The tax increase was proposed as an alternative to propositions made earlier in the year to increase the corporate tax rate to 28%.A 1% surcharge on corporate stock buybacks.A separate 15% global minimum tax on corporate profits earned abroad along with a penalty rate for foreign corporations based in non-compliant countries. The proposal comes after the U.S. led negotiations earlier in the year among G20 leaders in adopting a minimum 15% corporate tax rate along with other restrictive reforms.New surtax on multi-millionaires and billionaires.Close Medicare self-employment tax loophole.Continue limitation on excess business losses. The new surtax on multi-millionaires and billionaires is intended to replace numerous other proposals to tax high income individuals such as: a rate increase to the top tax bracket, taxing unrealized gains annually, a wealth tax, taxing unrealized capital gains at death, and ending the practice of stepped-up in basis. The surtax is set to add an additional 5% tax on income exceeding $10 million and an additional 3% tax on income exceeding $25 million. While perhaps not too different than levying additional income taxes, the surtax was agreed upon after Krysten Sinema refused to support increases to income tax rates on high earners. While the most recent draft still targets high income individuals and corporations, most of the significant tax changes have been avoided for now. Avenues for gift and estate planning and taxes related to closely held businesses were largely spared in the recent proposal. For now, it appears that there will be no changes made to the step-up in basis, reduction in estate and gift taxes, the application of marketability and control discounts, income tax rates on the top tax bracket, capital gains tax rates, or changes in the qualified business income deductions.Forward Looking ExpectationsMuch like the Infrastructure bill, which gained bipartisan support via not drastically changing the tax code, the Build Back Better bill may make it to the final yard line without incorporating the vast majority of major tax changes proposed earlier in the year or during the negotiations in recent months. The outline and proposals set forth represent the closest framework for consensus among the Democratic party, and tax proposals put forth have been forged by nearly a year of debate among party members. However, in no way is the recent draft set forth by President Biden final.Much uncertainty still remains regarding the draft’s support from the party’s more progressive and conservative members. If the recent months have taught us anything, with a bill this large, funding measures are liable to shift upon further negotiations. Regardless, many expect the bill to be put to a vote within weeks.Mercer Capital will continue to monitor any changes to the tax code and report on how they may affect our clients. In the meantime, to discuss a valuation need in confidence, please don’t hesitate to contact us.
Value Drivers in Flux
Value Drivers in Flux
Last July I gave a presentation to the third-year students attending the Consumer Bankers Association’s Executive Banking School. The presentation, which can be found here, touched on three big valuation themes for bank investors: estimate revisions, earning power and long-term growth.Although Wall Street is overly focused on the quarterly earnings process, investors care because of what quarterly results imply about earnings (or cash flow) estimates for the next year and more generally about a company’s earning power. Earning beats that are based upon fundamentals of faster revenue growth and/or positive operating leverage usually will result in rising estimates and an increase in the share price. The opposite is true, too.For U.S. banks that have largely finished reporting third quarter results, questions about all three—especially earning power—are in flux more than usual. Industry profitability has always been cyclical, but what is normal depends. Since the early 1980s, there have been fewer recessions that have resulted in long periods of low credit costs. Monetary policy has been radical since 2008. What’s normal was also distorted in 2020 and 2021 by PPP income that padded earnings but will evaporate in 2023.Most banks beat consensus EPS estimates, largely due to negligible credit costs if not negative loan loss provisions as COVID-19 related reserve builds that occurred in 2020 proved to be too much; however, there was no new news with the earnings release as it relates to credit.Investors concluded with the release of third and fourth quarter 2020 results that credit losses would not be outsized. Overlaid was confirmation from the corporate bond market as spreads on high yield bonds, CLOs and other structured products began to narrow in the second quarter of 2020 as banks were still building reserves.As of October 28, 2020, the NASDAQ Bank Index has risen 78% over the past year and 39% year-to-date.Much of that gain occurred during November (October 2020 was a strong month, too) through May as investors initially priced-in reserve releases to come; and then NIMs that might not fall as far as feared as the yield on the 10-year UST doubled to 1.75% by late March. Bank stocks underperformed the market during the summer as the 10-year UST yield fell. Since late September banks rallied again as investors began to price rate hikes by the Fed beginning in 2022 rather than 2023.No one knows for sure; the future is always uncertain. For banks, two key variables have an outsized influence on earnings other than credit costs: loan demand and rates. In other industries the variables are called volume and price. If both rise, most banks will see a pronounced increase in earnings as revenues rise and presumably operating leverage improves. Street estimates for 2022 and 2023 will rise, and investors’ view of earning power will too.We do not know what the future will be either.Loan demand and excess liquidity have been counter cyclical forces in the banking industry since banks came into being.The question is not if but how strong loan demand will be when the cycle turns. Interest rates used to be cyclical, too, until governments became so indebted that “normal” rates apparently cannot be tolerated.Nonetheless, at Mercer Capital we have decades of experience of evaluating earnings, earning power, multiples and other value drivers. Please give us a call if we can assist your institution.
Fairness Opinions - Evaluating a Buyer’s Shares from the Seller’s Perspective
Fairness Opinions - Evaluating a Buyer’s Shares from the Seller’s Perspective
Depository M&A activity in the U.S. has accelerated in 2021 from a very subdued pace in 2020 when uncertainty about the impact of COVID-19 and the policy responses to it weighed on bank stocks. At the time, investors were grappling with questions related to how high credit losses would be and how far would net interest margins decline. Since then, credit concerns have faded with only a nominal increase in losses for many banks. The margin outlook remains problematic because it appears unlikely the Fed will abandon its zero-interest rate policy (“ZIRP”) anytime soon.As of September 23, 2021, 157 bank and thrift acquisitions have been announced, which equates to 3.0% of the number of charters as of January 1. Assuming bank stocks are steady or trend higher, we expect 200 to 225 acquisitions this year, equivalent to about 4% of the industry and in-line with 3% to 5% of the industry that is acquired in a typical year. During 2020, only 117 acquisitions representing 2.2% of the industry were announced, less than half of the 272 deals (5.0%) announced in pre-covid 2019.To be clear, M&A activity follows the public market, as shown in Figure 1. When public market valuations improve, M&A activity and multiples have a propensity to increase as the valuation of the buyers’ shares trend higher. When bank stocks are depressed for whatever reason, acquisition activity usually falls, and multiples decline.Click here to expand the image aboveThe rebound in M&A activity this year did not occur in a vacuum. Year-to-date through September 23, 2021, the S&P Small Cap and Large Cap Bank Indices have risen 25% and 31% compared to 18% for the S&P 500. Over the past year, the bank indices are up 87% and 79% compared to 37% for the S&P 500.Excluding small transactions, the issuance of common shares by bank acquirers usually is the dominant form of consideration sellers receive. While buyers have some flexibility regarding the number of shares issued and the mix of stock and cash, buyers are limited in the amount of dilution in tangible book value they are willing to accept and require visibility in EPS accretion over the next several years to recapture the dilution.Because the number of shares will be relatively fixed, the value of a transaction and the multiples the seller hopes to realize is a function of the buyer’s valuation. High multiple stocks can be viewed as strong acquisition currencies for acquisitive companies because fewer shares are issued to achieve a targeted dollar value.However, high multiple stocks may represent an under-appreciated risk to sellers who receive the shares as consideration. Accepting the buyer’s stock raises a number of questions, most which fall into the genre of: what are the investment merits of the buyer’s shares? The answer may not be obvious even when the buyer’s shares are actively traded.Our experience is that some, if not most, members of a board weighing an acquisition proposal do not have the background to thoroughly evaluate the buyer’s shares. Even when financial advisors are involved, there still may not be a thorough vetting of the buyer’s shares because there is too much focus on “price” instead of, or in addition to “value.”A fairness opinion is more than a three or four page letter that opines as to the fairness from a financial point of a contemplated transaction; it should be backed by a robust analysis of all of the relevant factors considered in rendering the opinion, including an evaluation of the shares to be issued to the selling company’s shareholders. The intent is not to express an opinion about where the shares may trade in the future, but rather to evaluate the investment merits of the shares before and after a transaction is consummated.Key questions to ask about the buyer’s shares include the following:Liquidity of the Shares - What is the capacity to sell the shares issued in the merger? SEC registration and NASADQ and NYSE listings do not guarantee that large blocks can be liquidated efficiently. OTC traded shares should be scrutinized, especially if the acquirer is not an SEC registrant. Generally, the higher the institutional ownership, the better the liquidity. Also, liquidity may improve with an acquisition if the number of shares outstanding and shareholders increase sufficiently.Profitability and Revenue Trends - The analysis should consider the buyer’s historical growth and projected growth in revenues, pretax pre-provision operating income and net income as well as various profitability ratios before and after consideration of credit costs. The quality of earnings and a comparison of core vs. reported earnings over a multi-year period should be evaluated. This is particularly important because many banks’ earnings in 2020 and 2021 have been supported by mortgage banking and PPP fees.Pro Forma Impact - The analysis should consider the impact of a proposed transaction on the pro forma balance sheet, income statement and capital ratios in addition to dilution or accretion in earnings per share and tangible book value per share both from the seller’s and buyer’s perspective.Tangible BVPS Earn-Back - As noted, the projected earn-back period in tangible book value per share is an important consideration for the buyer. In the aftermath of the GFC, an acceptable earn back period was on the order of three to five years; today, two to three years may be the required earn-back period absent other compelling factors. Earn-back periods that are viewed as too long by market participants is one reason buyers’ shares can be heavily sold when a deal is announced that otherwise may be compelling.Dividends - In a yield starved world, dividend paying stocks have greater attraction than in past years. Sellers should not be overly swayed by the pick-up in dividends from swapping into the buyer’s shares; however, multiple studies have demonstrated that a sizable portion of an investor’s return comes from dividends over long periods of time. Sellers should examine the sustainability of current dividends and the prospect for increases (or decreases). Also, if the dividend yield is notably above the peer average, the seller should ask why? Is it payout related, or are the shares depressed?Capital and the Parent Capital Stack - Sellers should have a full understanding of the buyer’s pro-forma regulatory capital ratios both at the bank-level and on a consolidated basis (for large bank holding companies). Separately, parent company capital stacks often are overlooked because of the emphasis placed on capital ratios and the combined bank-parent financial statements. Sellers should have a complete understanding of a parent company’s capital structure and the amount of bank earnings that must be paid to the parent company for debt service and shareholder dividends.Loan Portfolio Concentrations - Sellers should understand concentrations in the buyer’s loan portfolio, outsized hold positions, and a review the source of historical and expected losses.Ability to Raise Cash to Close -What is the source of funds for the buyer to fund the cash portion of consideration? If the buyer has to go to market to issue equity and/or debt, what is the contingency plan if unfavorable market conditions preclude floating an issue?Consensus Analyst Estimates - If the buyer is publicly traded and has analyst coverage, consideration should be given to Street expectations vs. what the diligence process determines. If Street expectations are too high, then the shares may be vulnerable once investors reassess their earnings and growth expectations.Valuation - Like profitability, valuation of the buyer’s shares should be judged relative to its history and a peer group presently and relative to a peer group through time to examine how investors’ views of the shares may have evolved through market and profit cycles.Share Performance - Sellers should understand the source of the buyer’s shares performance over several multi-year holding periods. For example, if the shares have significantly outperformed an index over a given holding period, is it because earnings growth accelerated? Or, is it because the shares were depressed at the beginning of the measurement period? Likewise, underperformance may signal disappointing earnings, or it may reflect a starting point valuation that was unusually high.Strategic Position - Assuming an acquisition is material for the buyer, directors of the selling board should consider the strategic position of the buyer, asking such questions about the attractiveness of the pro forma company to other acquirers?Contingent Liabilities - Contingent liabilities are a standard item on the due diligence punch list for a buyer. Sellers should evaluate contingent liabilities too.The list does not encompass every question that should be asked as part of the fairness analysis, but it does illustrate that a liquid market for a buyer’s shares does not necessarily answer questions about value, growth potential and risk profile. The professionals at Mercer Capital have extensive experience in valuing and evaluating the shares (and debt) of financial and non-financial service companies garnered from over three decades of business. Give us a call to discuss your needs in confidence.
Three Considerations Before You Sell Your Business
Three Considerations Before You Sell Your Business
After spending years, if not decades, building your business through hard work, determination, and a little luck, what happens when you are ready to monetize your efforts by selling part or all of your business? Exiting the business you built from the ground up is often a bittersweet experience. Many business owners focus their efforts on growing their business and push planning for their eventual exit aside until it can’t be ignored any longer.  However, long before your eventual exit, you should begin planning for the day you will leave the business you built.We suggest you consider these three things.1. Have a Reasonable Expectation of ValueMany business owners have difficulty taking an objective view of the value of their company. In many cases, it becomes a highly emotional issue, which is certainly understandable considering that many business owners have spent most of their adult lives operating and growing their companies. Nevertheless, the development of reasonable pricing expectations is a vital starting point on the road to a successful transaction.The development of pricing expectations for an external sale should consider how a potential acquirer would analyze your company. In developing offers, potential acquirers can (and do) use various methods to develop a reasonable purchase price. An acquirer will utilize historical performance data, along with expectations for the future, to develop a level of cash flow or earnings that is considered sustainable going forward. In most cases, this analysis will focus on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) or some other pre-interest cash flow. A multiple is applied to this sustainable cash flow to provide an indication of value for the company. Multiples are developed based on an assessment of the underlying risk and growth factors of the subject company.Valuations and financial analysis for transactions encompass a refined and scenario-specific framework. The valuation process should enhance a buyer’s understanding of the cash flows and corresponding returns that result from purchasing or investing in a firm. For sellers or prospective sellers, valuations and exit scenarios can be modeled to assist in the decision to sell now or later and to assess the adequacy of deal consideration. Setting expectations and/or defining deal limitations are critical to good transaction discipline.2. Consider the Tax Implications When analyzing the net proceeds from a transaction, you must consider the potential tax implications.  From simple concepts such as ordinary income vs. capital gains and asset sales vs. stock sales, to more nuanced concepts such as depreciation recapture and purchase price allocation, there are almost unlimited issues that can come up related to the taxation of transaction proceeds.  The structure of your own corporate entity (C Corporation vs. tax-pass through entity) may have a material impact on the level of taxes owed from a potential transaction.We recommend consulting with your outside accountant (or hiring a tax attorney) early in the process of investigating a transaction.  Only a tax specialist can provide the detailed advice that is needed regarding the tax implications of different transaction structures.  There could be strategies that can be implemented well in advance of a transaction to better position your business or business interest for an eventual transaction.3. Have a Real Reason to Sell Your BusinessStrategy is often discussed as something belonging exclusively to buyers in a transaction.  Not true.Sellers need a strategy as well: what’s in it for you?  Sellers often feel like all they are getting is an accelerated payout of what they would have earned anyway while giving up their ownership.  In many cases, that’s exactly right!  Your Company, and the cash flow that creates value, transfers from seller to buyer when the ink dries on the purchase agreement.  Sellers give up something equally valuable in exchange for purchase consideration – that’s how it works.As a consequence, sellers need a real reason – a non-financial strategic reason – to sell.  Maybe you are selling because you want or need to retire.  Maybe you are selling because you want to consolidate with a larger organization, or need to bring in a financial partner to diversify your own net worth and provide ownership transition to the next generation.  Whatever the case, you need a real reason to sell other than trading future compensation for a check.  The financial trade won’t be enough to sustain you through the twists and turns of a transaction.The process of selling a business is typically one of the most important, and potentially complex, events in an individual’s life.  Important decisions such as this are best made after a thorough consideration of the entire situation.  Early planning can often be the difference between an efficient, controlled sales process and a rushed, chaotic process.Mercer Capital provides transaction advisory services to a broad range of public and private companies and financial institutions.  We have assisted hundreds of companies with planning and executing potential transactions since Mercer Capital was founded in 1982.  Rather than pushing solely for the execution of any transaction, Mercer Capital positions itself as an advisor, encouraging the right decision to be made by its clients.Our dedicated and responsive team is available to advise you through a transaction process, from initial planning and investigation through eventual execution.  To discuss your situation in confidence, give us a call.
Valuations for Gift & Estate Tax Planning
Valuations for Gift & Estate Tax Planning
Managing Complicated Multi-Tiered Entity Valuation EngagementsWhen equity markets fell in early 2020 due to the onset of the COVID-19 global pandemic, many business owners and tax planners contemplated whether it was an opportune time to engage in significant ownership transfers.Although equity markets have recovered to all-time highs, a confluence of three factors may make 2021 an ideal time for estate planning transactions for owners of private companies:Depressed Valuations. Valuations for many privately held businesses remain somewhat depressed due to significant supply chain challenges and hiring difficulties.Low Interest Rates.Applicable federal rates (AFRs) are at historically low levels, allowing business owners to make leveraged estate planning strategies more efficient.Political Risk.The Biden administration’s proposal to lower the gift and estate tax exemption andincrease the capital gains tax rate may prompt some individuals and businesses to take advantage of currently favorable tax conditions before any adverse changes are made.Mercer Capital has been performing valuations for complicated tax engagements since its inception in 1982.For many high net worth individuals and family offices, complex ownership structures have evolved over time, typically involving multi-tiered entity organizations and businesses with complicated ownership structures and governance.In this article, we describe the processes that lead to credible and timely valuation reports.These processes contribute to smoother engagements and better outcomes for clients.Defining the EngagementDefining the valuation project is an important step in every engagement process, but when multiple or tiered entities are involved, it becomes critical.It is insufficient to define a complicated engagement by referring only to the top tier entity in a multi-tiered organizational structure.The engagement scope should clearly identify all the direct and indirect ownership interests that will need to be valued.This allows the appraiser to plan the underlying due diligence and analytical framework to design the deliverable work product.For example, will the appraiser need to perform a separate appraisal at each level of a tiered structure?Or, can certain entities or underlying assets be valued using a consolidated analytical framework?Planning well on the front end of an engagement leads to more straightforward analyses that are easier to defend.Collecting the Necessary InformationDuring the initial discussion of the engagement, the appraiser will usually request certain descriptive and financial information (such as governing documents, recent audits, compilations, and/or tax returns) to determine the scope of analysis needed to render a credible appraisal for the master, top-tier entity and the underlying entities and assets.Upon being retained, one of the first things an appraiser will do is to prepare a more comprehensive information request list designed to solicit all the documentation necessary to render a valuation opinion.Full and complete disclosure of all requested information, as well as other information believed pertinent to the appraisal, will aid the appraiser in preventing double-counting or otherwise missing assets all together.Information Needed for Complex Multi-Tiered Entity ValuationRequested information for complex multi-tiered entity valuations typically falls into three broad categories:Legal documentation. The legal structure and inter-relationships in complex assignments are essential to deriving reliable valuation conclusions.In addition to the operating agreements, it is important to have current shareholder/member lists.A graphical organization chart is often a very helpful supplement to the legal documents and helps ensure that everyone really is “on the same page” regarding the objectives of the valuation assignment.Financial statements. A careful review of the historical financial statements for each entity in the overall structure provides essential context for the cash flow projections, growth outlook, and risk assessment that are the basic building blocks for any valuation assignment. Depending on ownership characteristics and business attributes, it may be appropriate to combine financial statements for multiple entities to promote efficiency in project execution.Supplementary information.For operating businesses, supplementary information may include financial projections, detailed revenue and margin data (by customer, product, region or some other basis), personnel information, and/or information pertaining to the competitive environment.For asset-holding entities, supplementary data may include current appraisals of real estate or other illiquid underlying assets, brokerage statements, and the like.The ultimate efficiency of the project often hinges on timely receipt of all requested information. Disorganized information or data that requires a lot of handling or interpretation on the part of the appraiser adds to project cost, and more importantly, can make it harder to defend valuation conclusions that are later subject to scrutiny.In short, providing high quality information in response to the appraiser’s request list promotes a more predicable outcome with the IRS and with other stakeholders.The Importance of Reviewing the Draft AppraisalUpon completing research, due diligence interviews with appropriate parties, and the valuation analysis, the appraiser should provide a draft appraisal report for review.The steps discussed thus far – careful planning and timely information collection – are not substitutes for careful review of the draft appraisal report.The complexity of many multi-tiered structures increases the need for relevant parties to review the draft appraisal for completeness and factual accuracy.Engagements involving complicated entity and operational structures are not easily shoehorned into typical appraisal reporting formats and presentation. Unique entity and asset attributes may require complex valuation techniques and heighten the need for clear and concise reporting of appraisal results. Regardless of the complexity of the underlying structure and valuation techniques, the appraisal report should still be easy to read and understand.Click here to expand the checklist above
Cash-Out Transactions and SEC Amended Rule 15c2-11
Cash-Out Transactions and SEC Amended Rule 15c2-11
It may seem an odd time for some publicly traded companies to consider cash-out merger transactions because broad equity market indices are at or near record levels. Nonetheless, the changing market structure means some boards may want to consider it.Among a small subset of public companies that may are those that are traded on OTC Markets Group’s Pink Open Market (“Pink”), the lowest of three tiers behind OTCQB Venture Market and OTCQX Best Market. Pink is the successor to the “pink sheets” which was published by a quotation firm that was purchased by investors who rechristened the firm OTC Markets Group.Today, OTC Markets Group is an important operator in U.S. capital markets because it facilitates capital flows for 11,000 US and global securities that range from micro-cap and small-cap issuers across all major industries to ADRs of foreign large cap conglomerates. Many issuers are SEC registrants, too.The issue that may cause some boards of companies traded on Pink to contemplate a cash-out merger or other transaction to reduce the number of shareholders is an amendment by the SEC to Rule 15c2-11, which governs the publication of OTC quotes and was last amended in 1991. Since then, markets and the public participation in markets have increased significantly as trading costs have declined and information has become more widely disseminated. The amendment applies only to Pink listed companies because those traded on OTCQB and OTCQX already meet the new requirements.Because of a quirk in how the rule was written in conjunction with a “piggyback exception” for dealers, financial information for some Pink issuers is not publicly available. The amended rule, which goes into effect September 28, 2021, prohibits dealers from publishing quotes for companies that do not provide current information including balance sheets, income statements and retained earnings statements. OTC Markets Group requires companies to comply with the rule through posting information to the issuer’s publicly available landing page that it maintains.While the disclosure requirement presumably is not burdensome, not all companies want to disclose such information, especially to competitors. Companies that choose not to comply with amended Rule 15c2-11 will no longer be eligible for quotation. Because shareholders of these companies historically have had the option to obtain liquidity, boards may want to evaluate an offer to repurchase shares or a cash-out merger transaction that reduces the number of shareholders.1Also, some micro-cap and small-cap companies whether traded on an OTC market or a national exchange may not obtain as many advantages compared to a decade or so ago.Given the rise of passive investing in which upwards of 50% of US equities are now held in a passively managed fund, companies that are not included in a major index such as the S&P 500, Russell 1000, NASDAQ or Russell 2000 are at a disadvantage given the amount of capital that now flows into passive funds. In some instances, it may make sense for these companies to go private, too.Cash-out transactions can be particularly attractive for companies that have a high number of shareholders in which a small number of shareholders have substantial ownership. Cash-out merger transactions require significant planning with help from appropriate financial and legal advisors. The link here provides an overview of valuation and fairness issues to consider in going private and cash-out transactions for companies whether privately or publicly held.Mercer Capital is a national valuation and financial advisory firm that works with companies, financial institutions, private equity and credit sponsors, high net worth individuals, benefit plan trustees, and government agencies to value illiquid securities and to provide financial advisory services related to M&A, divestitures, capital raises, buy-backs and other significant corporate transactions.1 Cash-out merger transactions are also referred to as freeze-out mergers or squeeze-out mergers in shareholders owning fewer than a set number of shares receive cash for their shares while those holding more than the threshold amount will be continuing shareholders.
Understanding Transaction Advisory Fees
Understanding Transaction Advisory Fees
Real Expertise Is an Investment, and the Benefits in Return Should Well Exceed the Costs In the previous article, we highlighted the various benefits of hiring a financial advisor when investigating the potential sale of a business. In a transaction with an outside party, the buyer will almost always be far more experienced in “deal-making” relative to the seller, who often will be undertaking the process for the first (and likely only) time. With such an imbalance, it is important for sellers to level the playing field by securing competent legal, tax and financial expertise. A qualified sell-side advisor will help ensure an efficient process while also pushing to optimize the terms and proceeds of the transaction for the sellers. As with anything in this world, favorable transaction processes and outcomes require an investment. Fee structures for transaction advisory services can vary widely based on the type and/or size of the business, the specific transaction situation, and the varying roles and responsibilities of the advisor in the transaction process. Even with this variance, most fee structures fall within a common general framework and include two primary components: 1) Project Fees and 2) Success Fees. Project Fees Project fees are paid to advisors throughout an engagement for the various activities performed on the project. Such activities include the initial valuation assessment, development of the Confidential Information Memorandum, development of the potential buyer list, and other activities. These fees generally include an upfront “retainer” fee paid at the beginning of the engagement. Retainer fees serve to ensure that a seller is serious about considering the sale of their business. For lower middle market transactions, the upfront retainer fee is typically in the $10,000 to $20,000 range. Often times, a fixed monthly project fee will be charged throughout the term of the engagement. These fees are meant to cover some, but not all, of an advisor’s costs associated with the project. For lower middle market transactions, monthly fees are typically $5,000 to $10,000. In certain situations, the engagement will include hourly fees paid throughout the engagement for the hourly time billed by the advisor. Such hourly fees are billed in place of a fixed monthly project fee. Hourly fees are typically appropriate when the project is more advisory-oriented versus being focused on turn-key transaction execution. Hourly fees serve to emphasize the objective needs of the client by counter-balancing the incentive for an advisor to “push a deal through” that may not be in the best long-term interests of the client. An hourly fee structure typically front loads the fees paid throughout the transaction process and is paired with a reduced success fee structure at closing which brings total fees back in line with market norms. Mercer Capital has had favorable outcomes with numerous clients when fee structures are well-tailored to the facts and circumstances of the seller and the seller’s options in the marketplace. Success Fee A success fee is paid to a transaction advisor upon the successful closing of a transaction. Typically, success fees are paid as part of the disbursement of funds on the day of closing. As with project fees, success fees can be structured in a number of different ways. A simple approach is to apply a flat percentage to the aggregate purchase price to calculate the success fee. The use of a flat percentage fee seems to have increased in recent years, and makes a fair bit of sense as it allows the client to clearly understand what the fees will look like on the back-end of a transaction. Traditionally, the most used success fee structure employs a waterfall of rates and deal valuation referred to as the Lehman Formula. This formula calculates the success fee based on declining fee percentages applied to set increments (“tranches”) of the total transaction purchase price. For lower middle market transactions, the simplest Lehman approach is a 5-4-3-2-1 structure: 5% on the first million dollars, 4% on the next million, and so on down to 1% on any amount above $4 million. The Lehman Formula, which can be applied using different percentages and varying tranche amounts, pays lower percentages in fee as the purchase price gets higher. Smaller deals may include a modified rate structure (for example 6-5-4-3-2) or may alter the tranche increments from $1 million to $2 million. The Lehman Formula, in its varying forms, has been utilized to calculate transaction advisory fees for decades. While the formula may add some unnecessary complexities to the calculation (versus say a flat percentage), it has proven over time to provide reasonable fee levels from the perspective of both sell-side advisors and their clients. A success fee can also be structured on a tiered basis, with a higher percentage being paid on transaction consideration above a certain benchmark. If base-level pricing expectations on a transaction are $15 million, the success fee might be set at 2.5% of the consideration up to $15 million and 5% of the transaction consideration above this level. If the business were sold for $18 million, the fee would be 2.5% of $15 million plus 5% of $3 million. The blended fee in this case would total $525,000, a little under 3% of the total consideration. Escalating success fees are often favored by clients because they provide an incentive for advisors to push for maximized deal pricing rather than settling for an easier deal at a lower price. Typical Total Fees Transaction advisory fees, on a percentage basis, tend to be higher for smaller transactions and decline as the dollars of transaction consideration increases. Various surveys of transaction advisors are available online that suggest typical fee ranges. Consensus figures from these sources are outlined below. Based on our experience, these “typical” ranges (or at least the upper end of each range) appear to be somewhat inflated relative to what most business owners should expect in an actual transaction advisory engagement. Mercer Capital’s View on Fees At Mercer Capital, we tailor fees in every transaction engagement to fit both the transaction situation at hand and our client’s objectives and alternatives. In situations where a client has an identified buyer, we understand that our role will likely be focused on valuation and negotiation. Many sellers are unaware that price is only one aspect of the deal, and terms are another. Altering the terms of a definitive agreement can move the needle by 5%-10% and can potentially accelerate end-game liquidity by 6 to 12 months. Accordingly, we design each fee structure to recognize what we are bringing to the process, typically utilizing some combination of hourly billings and a tiered success fee structure on the portions of the deal where our services are making a difference in the total outcome. If we are assisting a client through a full auction process, it may be appropriate to utilize a more traditional Lehman Formula or a flat percentage calculation. A primary focus of our initial conversations with a potential client is to understand the situation in detail so that we can develop a fee structure that ensures that the client receives a favorable return from their investment in our services. Mercer Capital provides transaction advisory services to a broad range of public and private companies and financial institutions. We have worked on hundreds of consummated and potential transactions since Mercer Capital was founded in 1982. Mercer Capital leverages its historical valuation and investment banking experience to help clients navigate critical transactions, providing timely, accurate, and reliable results. We have significant experience advising shareholders, boards of directors, management, and other fiduciaries of middle-market public and private companies in a wide range of industries. Rather than pushing solely for the execution of any transaction, Mercer Capital positions itself as an advisor, encouraging the right decision to be made by its clients. We recommend to clients to accept the right deal or no deal at all. Our dedicated and responsive team is available to manage your transaction process. To discuss your situation in confidence, give us a call.
ATRI’s Report on Critical Issues in 2021
ATRI’s Report on Critical Issues in 2021

In October 2021, the American Transportation Research Institute released its 2021 survey of Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry. The ATRI survey was open from September 8, 2021 through October 15, 2021 and includes responses from over 2,500 stakeholders in the trucking industry in North America. Respondents include motor carrier personnel (52.4% of respondents), commercial drivers (24.1%), and other industry stakeholders (23.5%, including suppliers, trainers, and law enforcement).
The SEC Adopts New Rule 2a-5 for Valuation of Fund Portfolio Investments
The SEC Adopts New Rule 2a-5 for Valuation of Fund Portfolio Investments
In December 2020, the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) adopted a new rule 2a-5 to update the regulatory framework around valuations of investments held by a registered investment company or business development company (“fund”). Boards of directors of funds are obligated to determine fair value of investments without readily available market quotations in good faith under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“Act”).
2021 Transportation Industry Update | COVID in Review
2021 Transportation Industry Update | COVID in Review
COVID-19 has had a lasting impression on many industries throughout the world, but the U.S. trucking and transportation industry was among the first industries to feel the impact of the pandemic.Lockdowns in China (initiated in December 2019) began affecting the U.S. trucking industry in very early 2020 as Chinese imports account for nearly 40% of all shipments entering the U.S. By the beginning of March, the U.S. had already begun to see massive declines in incoming freight with an escalation of shipping cancellations. The ports of Seattle and Long Beach experienced 50-60 container shipment cancellations reflecting declines of 9% relative to the prior year.When discussing the decline of imports in the port of Seattle, Sheri Call of the Washington Trucking Association said, “That’s the kind of decline we’d normally see over the course of an entire year.” Disruption of international trade led to transportation companies reducing capacity as early as the beginning of March. Outbound rail and trucking shipments from LA dropped 25% and 20% respectively, in March 2020.Due to social distancing requirements throughout the United States, many roadside eateries and rest areas were closed in the first several months of the pandemic, which reduced truck drivers’ access to food and other necessities for long days on the road.  Trucking companies were forced to alter their transportation network, frequently carrying empty loads as a result of uneven and declining demand.  According to Reuters, “trucks hauling food and consumer products north to the United State are returning empty to Mexico where mass job losses have hit demand, leaving cash-strapped truckers to log hundreds of costly, empty miles.” Empty loads increased nearly 40% worldwide in the immediate aftermath of the lockdown.An indication of the health of U.S. trucking industry can be seen through the ratio of full north bound trips to full southbound trips at the Mexico-US border. The ratio is typically one full southbound trip to every three full northbound trips, but the ratio began to lean closer to a one to seven ratio during the pandemic with the remainder being empty or partially full. Additionally, new freight contracts have fallen 60% to 90% since the rise of COVID-19 in 2020.Increased online shopping from consumers has led to a spike in demand for last-mile delivery services. Amazon reported $75.5 billion in 2020 first-quarter sales which was a 26% increase from the first quarter of 2019. Many last-mile delivery companies like FedEx and Amazon continued to hire workers with Amazon seeing an increase in company employment of nearly 175,000 workers from March to April of 2020. Last-mile delivery carriers also eliminated signature requirements so that they can now achieve a “contactless” delivery process.The level of domestic industrial production is correlated to the demand for services within the transportation industry. The Industrial Production Index is an economic measure of all real output from manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities.Lockdowns that began in March of 2020, as a result of the pandemic, led to a sharp decline in the Industrial Production Index. The index began a rapid recovery during the summer months of 2020. At the end of the first quarter of 2020, the Industrial Production Index saw a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 16.7% while also being down 17.7% on a year-over-year basis. The index rebounded in the second quarter of 2020 with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.7%. The index continually increased over the last three quarters of 2020, but it had not reached pre-pandemic levels as of April 2021. The outlook for the trucking industry at the beginning of 2020 was promising with economists predicting that freight rates would grow 2% over the course of the year. Strong economic growth in the first two months of 2020 was halted by the outbreak of the unforeseen pandemic. The impact was dramatic – though not entirely negative for all carriers. Carriers of essential goods like groceries, cleaning supplies, and medical supplies experienced skyrocketing demand for their services while industrial, manufacturing, and other non-essential carriers are still undergoing lasting effects from the pandemic. One non-essential industry that experienced a downward turn at the onset of the pandemic was the vehicle shipping services industry. A strong economy with high disposable income and consumer confidence ramped up consumer spending for the American automobile industry in the periods leading up to the pandemic. The industry’s growth prospects were halted during 2020 due to a high unemployment rate and a drop-off in disposable income. The success of the vehicle shipping services industry is closely intertwined with new car sales and consumer confidence. The graph below shows the relationship between revenue of the vehicle shipping services industry and new car sales and consumer confidence. Overall, decreased consumer confidence in 2020 led to many Americans electing to defer vehicle upgrades, which created a major economic downturn for the vehicle shipping services industry.With many businesses closed, overall Cass Freight trucking shipments plummeted, seeing a decrease of 15.1%  and 22.7% from April 2019 to April 2020. Truck tonnage also dropped 9.3% on a from March 2020 to April 2020 while declining 8.90% from April 2019 through April 2020.The fall of the number of shipments along with overall truck tonnage caused transportation companies to lower contract and spot rates. Flatbed and reefer rates hit a five-year low in April of 2020, though they rapidly recovered and had surpassed pre-pandemic rates by the fourth quarter of 2020.  Truck tonnage has not recovered at the same rate as spot and contract pricing and had not reached pre-pandemic levels by March 2021.  These trends are reflected in the Cass Freight and Shipment Indices.  While the Shipments index has increased relative to its April 2020 level and has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, the Expenditures index increased over 27% from March 2020 through April 2020.Even though contract rates did not have as sharp of a decline in March of 2020 as spot rates, both experienced a drop-off at the onset of the pandemic. Spot rates dropped below numbers that had been seen in recent years. After the sharp decline of spot rates in March, rates for all categories began to steadily increase. Rates hit a seasonal decline at the end of December due to decreased consumer spending after the holiday season.  Rates resumed their climb during the first months of 2021.  Overall, the rising price of contract and spot rates spins a positive image for overall outlook of the trucking industry, while also encouraging new competition to enter the market.At the beginning of 2020, there were strong predictions for revenue in both the long distance and local trucking industries. Once the COVID-19 pandemic hit, revenues for both parts of the trucking industry dropped along with future revenue predictions. After a few months of lockdowns, the trucking industry began a rapid rebound as a result of businesses reopening and increased online retail. Future revenue predictions from March and April of 2021 from both the long distance and local sectors exceed predictions made in October 2020.Industrial production and consumer spending, spurred on by the substantial stimulus programs enacted by federal government, have recovered more rapidly than initially expected. This rapid recovery has seemingly reduced the expected long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the long-distance and local trucking industries.The effects of rising trucking rates and revenues coupled with optimistic outlooks for both categories can be seen in the number of long-distance and local trucking establishments. Lured in by appealing spot and contract rates, March 2021 predictions for the number of establishments in the trucking industry look to be on the rise. Naturally, there was a drop-off in the number of establishments in 2020, but the industry seems to have recovered with numerous new entries into the market in 2021. The long-distance trucking industry is projected to have more than one hundred thousand more establishments than originally forecasted in January of 2020.
Benefits of Hiring an Advisor When Selling Your Business
Benefits of Hiring an Advisor When Selling Your Business
While many business owners have a general sense of what their business may be worth and a threshold selling price in mind, going at it alone in a transaction process involves more than a notion on pricing – it involves procedural awareness, attention to detail, as well as a good measure of patience despite the desire for an immediate outcome. In most external transactions (i.e., a business owner selling to a third party rather than to family or employees) there is an acute imbalance of savvy and experience between buyers and sellers. For certain sellers who owe their business successes to personal effort, brute force, and honed skills, it’s a difficult decision and an act of faith to turn the business asset over to an advisory team. Buyers, both financial or strategic in nature, have completed many transactions while most sellers have never bought or sold a business. Given this near universal lop-sidedness in experience and resources, sellers need to assemble a team of experienced advisors to assist in navigating unfamiliar terrain. The time intensity and distractions of the process can cause the business to suffer if ownership sacrifices on operational oversight and foregoes the attention to detail that made the business an attractive acquisition target in the first place. We strongly recommend hiring a full transaction team composed of, at a bare minimum, three primary players: Transaction attorneyTax accountantFinancial (sell-side) advisor By securing a turnkey transaction team, business owners benefit from the multi-perspective expertise and overlapping skillsets of the team. The diversity and breadth of the team often facilitates proactivity and response capability for a wide variety of developments that can derail or compromise the timing, process and financial outcome of the final deal.Benefits of Hiring a Financial AdvisorThe following are a few of the many benefits of hiring a qualified sell-side advisor to assist in the transaction process.Maximize Net ProceedsThe core components and key terms of a transaction are often complicated and sometimes deceptively obscured in the legal rhetoric of an LOI, APA or SPA. Hiring a sell-side advisor with the right experience and expertise can help business owners maximize the net proceeds from the transaction. Financial intricacies and other points of negotiation, such as working capital true-ups or contingent consideration arrangements, often require careful analysis and modeling in order to foster clear decision making regarding competing and differently structured deals.A good sell-side advisor encourages objective comparative assessment of competing offers, negotiates key points, and helps acclimate sellers to certain realities of getting a deal done.Negotiate Best Possible TermsSell-side advisors have years of experience reviewing purchase agreements and will work with ownership’s legal counsel to ensure the transaction documents accurately reflect the agreed upon value and terms. These documents can often be cumbersome and need to be reviewed and crafted with the utmost attention to detail. Experienced advisors can help streamline the fine-tuning of these documents to assist the business owner(s) in negotiating favorable (or acceptable) terms of sale.At some point in most deals, a seller has to pick the fights worth fighting and concede on those terms that aren’t likely to change or have no real benefit. A good advisor should be frank and forthright with sellers, even when the recommendations or choices are not entirely satisfying. Sellers must be aware that a buyer needs a few wins and concessions to justify their investment. An informed seller, using the advice of a good seller representative, can better identify and prioritize the issues that impact the deal.Drive Transaction to ClosureSeasoned sell-side advisors have often worked on hundreds of transaction engagements. This range of experience can be of great help if and when unexpected issues arise, and unexpected issues almost always arise. Sell-side advisors will work with the rest of the transaction team to manage these issues and provide the information necessary to make critical decisions regarding proposed solutions with the end-goal of driving a transaction to closure.Confidentiality and Ownership BurdenRevealing a contemplated transaction to your employees and stakeholders can often lead to undue stress, which compounds the strain already present on ownership and management during a transaction process. With the help of a sell-side advisor, ownership and management can maintain their focus on running the business and generating profits while knowing that the transaction process is progressing in the background.Ownership can also gain peace of mind in knowing that the transaction will become “public information” at the appropriate time, which allows the business to function normally throughout the entire process. Many of the delays and sensitivities involved in the selling process, represent the potential for unexpected breaches of information to employees and other stakeholders. Owners can avoid many water cooler dilemmas by using an outside representative who collects, organizes, and disseminates information and manages exchanges between the parties.ConclusionAdmittedly, we are valuation and transaction advisory providers – go figure, that our advice is to retain us, if you desire strong representation that we believe will pay for itself. If you have a good business asset to sell, it’s likely you have been highly concentrated in your capital investments and your personal efforts to create that wealth. Selling such an asset is not only the opportunity to diversify your wealth but to outsource much of the pain and worry that accompanies the process of selling.Mercer Capital offers a seasoned bench of professionals with a diversity of experience unmatched by most pure-play brokers and M&A representatives. We combine top-shelf valuation competency with a vast array of litigation, transaction advisory and consulting experience to facilitate the best available strategic outcomes for our clients. To discuss your situation in confidence, give us a call.
How Long Will It Take to Sell My Business?
How Long Will It Take to Sell My Business?
That Depends on the Type of Transaction…Ownership transitions, whether internal among family and other shareholders or external with third parties, require effective planning and a team of qualified advisors to achieve the desired outcome. In this article, we examine some “typical” timelines involved in various types of transactions.Internal TransitionsSale to Next GenerationInternal transitions are often undertaken in accordance with provisions outlined in the Company’s existing or newly minted buy-sell agreement. A buy-sell agreement is an agreement by and between the owners of a closely owned business that defines the terms for the purchase when an owner requires liquidity. Buy-sell agreements typically specify how pricing is determined, including the timing, the standard of value used, the level of value, and the appraiser performing the valuation.As a matter of practicality, the timing for transfers using an existing buy-sell agreement is often dependent on the readiness of financing and the service level of the assisting legal and valuation advisory professionals. Experience suggests this can take as little as four to eight weeks, but often involves processes that can require three to six months to carry out.In circumstances where a newly crafted buy-sell agreement is being developed, you should expect a lengthier process of at least several months so that the attending financial, valuation, and legal frameworks are satisfactorily achieved.Mercer Capital has published numerous books on the topic of buy-sell agreements, which readers of this article should avail themselves of, or better yet, contact a Mercer Capital valuation professional to make sure you get directed to the most useful content to assist in your circumstance.Companies with an existing buy-sell agreement and those that obtain regular appraisal work, stand the best chance of achieving a timely process. Those Companies that are embarking on their first real valuation process, and that have stakeholders who require a thorough education on valuation and other topics, should allow for a deliberate and paced process.In the event of an unexpected need for ownership transfer (death and divorce to name a few), it is sound advice to retain a primary facilitator to administer to the potentially complex sets of needs that often accompany the unexpected.Employee Stock Ownership PlansThe establishment of an Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOP) is a necessarily involved process that requires a variety of analyses, one of which is an appraisal of the Company’s shares that will be held by the plan.For a Company with well-established internal processes and systems, the initial ESOP transaction typically requires four to six months. In a typical ESOP transaction, the Company will engage a number of advisors who work together to assist the Company and its shareholders in the transaction process. The typical “deal team” includes a firm that specializes in ESOP implementation, as well legal counsel, an accounting firm, a banker, and an independent trustee (and that trustee’s team of advisors as well).Most modern-day ESOPs involve complex financing arrangements including senior bankers and differing types and combinations of subordinated lenders (mezzanine lenders and seller notes). There are numerous designs to achieve an ESOP installation. In general, the Company establishes and then funds the ESOP’s purchase financing via annual contributions.ESOPs are qualified retirement plans that are subject to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act and regulated by the Department of Labor. Accordingly, ESOP design and installation are in the least, a time consuming process (plan for six months) and in some cases an arduous one that requires fortitude and an appreciation by all parties for the consequences of not getting it right up front. The intricacies and processes for a successful ESOP transaction are many.A more detailed assessment of ESOPs is provided here on Mercer Capital’s website. The following graphics depict the prototypical ESOP structure and the flow of funds.External SalesMany entrepreneurs cannot fathom why success in business may not equally apply to getting a deal done. In most external transactions, there is a significant imbalance of deal experience: today’s buyers have often completed many transactions, while sellers may have never sold a business. Accordingly, sellers need to assemble a team of experienced and trusted advisors to help them navigate unfamiliar terrain.Without exception, we recommend retaining a transaction team composed of at least three deal-savvy players: a transaction attorney, a tax accountant, and a sell-side financial advisor. If you do not already have some of these capable advisors, assembling a strong team can require time to accomplish. Since many transactions with external buyers originate as unsolicited approaches from the growing myriad of private equity and family office investors, it is advisable to maintain a posture of readiness.Up-to-date financial reporting, good general housekeeping with respect to accounts, inventory, real property maintenance, information technology, and the like are all part of a time-efficient transaction process. These aspects of readiness are the things that sellers can control in order to improve timing efficiency. As is often said in the transaction environment - time wounds all deals.Sellers doing their part on the readiness front are given license to expect an efficient process from their sell-side advisors and from buyers. We do caution that selling in today’s mid-market environment ($10-$500 million deal size) often involves facilitating potentially exhaustive buyer due diligence in the form of financial, legal, tax, regulatory and other matters not to mention potentially open-ended Quality of Earnings processes used by today’s sophisticated investors and strategic consolidators. A seasoned sell-side advisor can help economize on and facilitate these processes if not in the least comfort sellers as to the inherent complexity of the transaction process.The sell-side advisor assists ownership (or the seller’s board as the case may be) in setting reasonable value expectations, preparing the confidential information memorandum, identifying a target list of potential motivated buyers, soliciting and assessing initial indications of interest and formal bids, evaluating offers, facilitating due diligence, and negotiating key economic terms of the various contractual agreements.The typical external transaction process takes four to seven months and is done in three often overlapping and recycling phases. While every deal process involves different twists and turns on the path to consummation, the typical external transaction process takes five to seven months and is completed in the three phases depicted in the following graphics.CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE THE IMAGE ABOVECLICK HERE TO ENLARGE THE IMAGE ABOVEConclusionAs seasoned advisors participating on both front-end and post-transaction processes, we understand that every deal is unique. We have experienced the rush of rapid deal execution and the trying of patience in deals that required multiple rounds of market exposure. A proper initial Phase I process is often required to fully vet the practical timing required for an external transaction process.Mercer Capital provides transaction advisory services to a broad range of public and private companies and financial institutions. We have worked on hundreds of consummated and potential transactions since Mercer Capital was founded in 1982. We have significant experience advising shareholders, boards of directors, management, and other fiduciaries of middle-market public and private companies in a wide range of industries. Rather than pushing solely for the execution of any transaction, Mercer Capital positions itself as an advisor, encouraging the right decision to be made by its clients.Our independent advice withstands scrutiny from shareholders, bondholders, the SEC, IRS, and other interested parties to a transaction. Our dedicated and responsive team stands ready to help manage your transaction.
The Potential Buyers of Your Business
The Potential Buyers of Your Business
An Overview of the Different Types of Buyers for Closely Held, Mid-Market CompaniesWe regularly encounter business owners contemplating the dilemma of ownership transition. After years (maybe even decades) of cultivating the business through hard work, determination, and perhaps a bit of luck, many prospective sellers believe now is a sensible time to exit.Tax changes are looming, pandemic and post-pandemic winners see solutions to a myriad of operational challenges, and valuations remain favorable in most industries. However, a seller’s timing, the readiness of the business, and the readiness of the marketplace may not be aligned without careful seller preparation and real-time market awareness.Little do most sellers realize that their preparation, their tolerance for post-deal involvement, their health and ability to remain active, and their needs for liquidity will influence the breadth and priorities of their options and will influence who the potential buyers might be and how they might target the business. Proactivity (or backfilling for the lack thereof) will also influence the design and costs of the process for effective M&A representation.Under ideal circumstances, the planning process for an exit will begin well before the need for an actual ownership transfer arises. One of the first steps in planning for an eventual sale is to understand who the potential buyers might be and the different characteristics of these buyers.In this article, we discuss some exit options and summarize some of the specifics of certain types of buyers and what that could mean for transaction structure and economic outcomes.Internal Ownership TransitionWhen done carefully, an internal transition can be desirable in order to protect both the existing employees and the culture of the business. Potential buyers in an internal transition generally include the next generation of the owner’s family or key employees of the company (or a mix thereof).These transactions generally occur one of two ways: through a direct sale from the exiting owner to the next generation or through the establishment of an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP).While these transactions may not yield the pricing or turnkey liquidity that selling to an outside buyer might, they can provide comfort to exiting owners regarding their legacy and the continuing prospects of the business as an independent going concern. Sale to Next GenerationA key consideration in selling to family members or to employees is price. Equally important is the question of how the transaction is financed.Internal transactions are often achieved by share redemptions in installments and/or through a leveraged buyout process. Often, the seller will provide financing using one of many potential structures.Seller financing carries the risk of the buyer’s inability to pay, which often requires the seller to reinsert into active leadership. Many may view seller financing as acceptable, if not necessary or desirable, in order to control the terms and costs of the arrangements and to benefit from the interest payments and other terms of the financing.As noted, a seller’s liquidity requirements and the underlying fundamental borrowing capacity of the business play a big part in determining how much third party capital can be employed. Many sellers want their buyers, family or otherwise, to have real skin in the game by way of at least partial external financing.If the next generation of family members and/or employees are not well-situated to achieve a buyout as a concentrated ownership group, then the feasibility of a more formal collective buyer group may be a good alternative. Following is a brief overview of Employee Stock Ownership Plans, which can serve as an alternative to a concentrated internal transition.Establishing an Employee Stock Ownership PlanESOPs are a proven vehicle of ownership transfer. They can provide for either an incremental or a turnkey ownership transfer. They also facilitate the opportunity for legacy owners to continue contributing to the stability and success of the business while allowing employees to reap the rewards and benefits of capital ownership.Assessing the feasibility of an ESOP requires the advisory support of experienced financial and legal professionals who help ensure that best practices are implemented and that compliance awareness governs the transaction. To that end, owners contemplating an ESOP need to be keenly aware of the importance of following a well-designed process that satisfies the requirements of the Department of Labor and adheres to governing rules and regulations.As a qualified retirement plan subject to regulations set forth by ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act), ESOPs are regulated using strict guidelines for process, fairness, and administration. Accordingly, the entire life cycle of a contemplated ESOP needs to be studied in a process generally referred to as an ESOP Feasibility Study. Valuation, financing, plan design, plan administration, future repurchase obligations, and many other concerns must be assessed before venturing down the ESOP path.In function, the establishment of an ESOP includes the creation of an ESOP trust, which, using one of many possible transaction structures, becomes the ultimate owner of some or all of the stock of the sponsoring ESOP company. ESOPs are unique in being the only qualified retirement plans allowed to use debt to purchase the shares of the employer corporation.Once an ESOP is in place, the qualifying employee participants are allocated interests in the trust annually according to the Plan’s design. As employees cycle through their employment tenure, they trigger milestone events that allow for the effective sale of their accumulated ownership positions, providing a nest egg for retirement.During their tenure of employment, the employee’s account is mostly concentrated in company stock, the valuation of which determines the amount they receive when nearing and eventually reaching retirement age. The stock accumulated during active employment is converted to cash and the plan shares are either redeemed or recycled to perpetuate the ESOP.There are certain tax-related and transaction design features in an ESOP transaction that can benefit sellers in numerous different ways. Sellers in ESOP installations must understand the necessary complexities and nuances of a well-run ESOP transaction. Sellers lacking the patience and gumption for an ESOP process or those who require turnkey liquidity in their ownership exit should likely consider an alternative liquidity strategy.External SaleIn general, the ability to sell your business to an external party yields the highest proceeds. If you have succeeded in creating a sustainable business model with favorable prospects for growth, your business assets may generate interest from both strategic and financial buyers.The Strategic BuyerA strategic buyer is usually a complementary or competitive industry player within your markets or looking to enter your markets.Strategic buyers can be generally characterized as either vertical or horizontal in nature. Such buyers are interested in the natural economies of scale that result from an expanded market area (cost and operational leverage in our terminology) and/or from specific synergies that create the opportunity for market and financial accretion (think 1 + 1 = 3).There is a good chance that a potential strategic buyer for your business is someone or some group you already know. Such buyers don’t require the full ground-up familiarization process because they are already in tune with the risk and growth profiles of the business model. Accordingly, owners interested in a turnkey, walk-away sale of their business are often compelled toward a strategic buyer since strategic buyers can quickly integrate the seller’s business into their own.The moving parts of transaction consideration paid by strategic buyers can cover a broad spectrum. We see simple, nearly 100% cash deals, as well as deals that include various forms of contingent consideration and employment/non-compete agreements.Most sellers in strategic deals are not inclined to work for their buyers other than in a purely consultative role that helps deliver the full tangible and intangible value the buyer is paying for. In many cases, strategic buyers want a clean and relatively abrupt break from prior ownership in order to hasten the integration processes and cultural shift that come with a change in control.Additionally and/or alternatively, strategic deals may include highly tailored earn-outs that are designed with hurdles based on industry-specific metrics. In general, earn-outs are often designed to close gaps in the bid/ask spread that occur in the negotiation process. These features allow sellers more consideration if post-transaction performance meets or beats the defined hurdles and vice versa. Sellers must be aware of the sophisticated means by which larger strategic buyers can creatively engineer the outcomes of contingent consideration.In certain industries strategic buyers may structure consideration as part cash and part or all stock. Sellers in the financial sector are often selling equity ownership as opposed to the asset sales that dominate most non-financial sectors. In such deals, sellers who take equity in the merged entity must be cognizant of their own valuation and that of the buyer. The science of the exchange rate and the post-closing true-ups that may apply are areas in which sellers should seek skilled professional advisory guidance.The Financial BuyerFinancial buyers are primarily interested in the returns achieved from their investment activities. These returns are achieved by the conventions of 1) traditional opportunistic investment and 2) by means of sophisticated front-end and back-end financial engineering with respect to the original financing and the subsequent re-financings that often occur.Most traditional buy-out financial investors are looking to satisfy the specific investment criteria of their underlying fund investors, who have signed on for a targeted duration of investment that, by nature, requires the financial investor to achieve a secondary exit of the business within three to seven years after the original acquisition (the house flipping analogy is a clear but oversimplified one). Financial investors may have significant expertise acquiring companies in certain industries or may act as generalists willing to acquire different types of businesses across different industries.In general, there are three types of financial buyers:Private Equity Groups or other Alternative Financial InvestorsPermanent Capital ProvidersSingle/Multi-Family Offices Despite their financial expertise, financial buyers usually do not have the capacity or knowledge to assume the management of the day-to-day operations of all of their business investments. As such, the seller’s management team at the time of a sale will likely remain involved with the Company for the foreseeable future. A sale to a financial investor can be a viable solution for ownership groups in which one owner wants to cash out and completely exit the business while other owners remain involved (rollover) with the business. With respect to work force and employee stability, financial investors will ultimately seek maximum efficiency, but they often begin the process by making sure they secure the services of both frontline and managerial employees. In many cases, the desired growth of such investors can bolster the employment security of good employees while screening out those that resist change and impede progress. The value of the assembled workforce is becoming a more meaningful asset to prospective buyers in the marketplace, whether they be strategic or financial in nature. Further, larger acquirers often can present employees with a more comprehensive benefit package and enhanced upward mobility in job responsibility and compensation. All this said, financial investors will ultimately seek to optimize their returns with relentless efficiency. Lastly, as the financial buyer universe has matured over the past 20+ years, we have witnessed directly that many strategic consolidators are platform businesses with private equity sponsorship, which blurs or even eliminates the notion of a strictly strategic or financial buyer in many industries.ConclusionAn outside buyer might approach you with an offer that you were not expecting, you and your partners might decide to put the business on the market and seek offers, or you and your partners might opt for an internal sale. Whatever the case may be, most owners only get to sell their business once, so you need to be sure you have experienced, trustworthy advisors in your corner.Mercer Capital provides transaction advisory services to a broad range of public and private companies and financial institutions. We have worked on hundreds of consummated and potential transactions since Mercer Capital was founded in 1982. We have significant experience advising shareholders, boards of directors, management, and other fiduciaries of middle-market public and private companies in a wide range of industries.Rather than pushing solely for the execution of any transaction, Mercer Capital positions itself as an advisor to inform sellers about their options and to encourage market-based decision making that aligns with the personal priorities of each client.Our independent advice withstands scrutiny from shareholders, bondholders, the SEC, IRS, and other interested parties to a transaction. Our dedicated and responsive team stands ready to help you manage the transaction process.
Estate of Michael J. Jackson v. Commissioner - Key Takeaways
Estate of Michael J. Jackson v. Commissioner - Key Takeaways
It is imperative for estate planners to engage valuation analysts that perform the proper procedures and follow best practices when performing valuations for gift and estate planning purposes. It is necessary to have a well-supported valuation because these reports are scrutinized by the IRS and may end up going to court. The recent decision by the U.S. Tax Court in Estate of Michael J. Jackson v. Commissioner provides several lessons and reminders for valuation analysts, and those that engage valuation analysts, to keep in mind when performing valuations for gift and estate planning purposes. Michael Jackson, the “King of Pop,” passed away on June 25, 2009. His Estate (the “Estate”) filed its 2009 Form 706, United States Estate (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return, listing the value of Jackson’s assets. After auditing the Estate’s tax return, the Commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service (the “Commissioner”) issued a notice of deficiency that concluded that the Estate had underpaid Jackson’s estate tax by a little more than $500 million. Because the valuation of some assets were considered to be so far off, the Commissioner also levied penalties totaling nearly $200 million on the Estate. The IRS and the Estate settled the values of several assets outside of court. The case involved three contested assets of Michael Jackson’s estate: Jackson’s Image and LikenessJackson’s interest in New Horizon Trust II (“NHT II”) which held Jackson’s interest in Sony/ATV Music Publishing, LLC, a music-publishing companyJackson’s interest in New Horizon Trust III (“NHT III”) which contained Majic Music, a music-publishing catalog We discuss the key topics that the Tax Court ruled on and addressed that inform valuation analysts in the preparation of quality valuation reports.Known or KnowableIt is important that valuation analysts only rely on information that was known or knowable at the valuation date.In the decision, the Tax Court rejects the analysis of experts on several occasions for using information that was “unforeseeable at the time of Jackson’s death.”The Tax Court goes on to state that “foreseeability can’t be subject to hindsight.”It can be difficult to distinguish and depend on only the information known or knowable at the valuation date especially when a significant amount of time has passed between the current date and the valuation date.Therefore, a careful examination of all sources of information is necessary to be sure that it can be relied upon in the analysis.As can be seen from the Tax Court’s opinion, valuation analysts and experts can undermine their credibility by relying on information that was not known or knowable at the valuation date.Tax Affecting S CorporationsThe Tax Court, in this specific case, did not accept the tax affecting of S Corporations: “The Estate’s own experts used inconsistent tax rates.They failed to explain persuasively the assumption that a C corporation would be the buyer of the assets at issue.They failed to persuasively explain why many of the new pass-through entities that have arisen recently wouldn’t be suitable purchasers.And they were met with expert testimony from the Commissioner’s side that was, at least on this very particular point, persuasive in light of our precedent.This all leads us to find that tax affecting is inappropriate on the specific facts of this case.”The Tax Court did, however, leave room for the possibility of tax affecting being appropriate by stating, “we do not hold that tax affecting is never called for.”At Mercer Capital, we tax affect the earnings of S corporations and other pass-through entities.Given that this issue continues to be a point of contention, it is imperative that valuation analysts provide a thorough analysis and clear explanation for why tax affecting is appropriate for S corporations and other tax pass-through entities.Developing Projected Cash FlowsIn the valuation of NHT II, the Court found it more reasonable to use the projections of Sony/ATV in the development of a forecast used in the income approach rather than relying on historical financial performance to inform the projection.The Tax Court based its decision on the fact that “the music-publishing industry was (and has remained) in a state of considerable uncertainty created by a long series of seismic technological changes. We think that projections of future cashflow, if made by businessmen with an incentive to get it right, are more likely to reflect reasonable estimates of the short-to-medium-term effects of these wild changes in the industry that even experts, much less judges, are unlikely to intuit correctly.”This decision makes it clear that valuation analysts need to fully understand the industry in which the company operates and develop a forecast that is most reasonable given the information available as of the valuation date.In cases where analysts have access to a projection developed by management, valuation analysts should have a clear, well-reasoned rationale for not relying on the forecast should they decide not to use it in the analysis.However, valuation analysts should not blindly accept management’s forecasts as truth but should perform proper due diligence to assess the reasonability of the forecast and clearly articulate any deviations from management’s forecast.Other Topics AddressedA few other topics of note are addressed throughout the decision that can help valuation analysts provide reliable valuation analyses.On more than one occasion, the Tax Court sided with the expert that provided a compelling explanation for the use of a certain assumption rather than arbitrarily using an assumption without explanation.The Tax Court also sided with one expert simply because they provided a clear citation for their source when another expert did not.The Tax Court also called out the inconsistency of an expert in their report and testimony.These topics addressed by the Tax Court demonstrate that consistently explaining and citing the sources of assumptions and key elements of the valuation analysis help to produce a supportable valuation analysis.Finally, the expert for the Commissioner seriously damaged their credibility in the eyes of the Tax Court when the expert was caught in a couple lies during the trial.The Tax Court found that the expert “did undermine his own credibility in being so parsimonious with the truth about these things he didn’t even benefit from being untruthful about, as well as not answering questions directly throughout his testimony.This affects our fact finding throughout.”Takeaways & ConclusionThe table below presents the valuation conclusions of the Estate, Commissioner, and the Tax Court at trial. This decision has shown that it is critical for valuation analysts to present quality valuation reports that are clear, supported, and follow accepted best practices.At Mercer Capital, estate planners can be confident that we follow the proper procedures, standards, and best practices when performing our valuations for gift and estate planning.Mercer Capital has substantial experience providing valuations for gift and estate planning as well as expert witness testimony in support of our reports.Please do not hesitate to contact one of our professionals to discuss how Mercer Capital may be able to help your estate planning needs.
What Does the Step-Up in Basis Tax Proposal Mean for High Net Worth Individuals and Family Businesses?
What Does the Step-Up in Basis Tax Proposal Mean for High Net Worth Individuals and Family Businesses?
Recently, the Biden Administration announced elements of its tax agenda in the American Families Plan. The Biden Administration aims to make some significant changes to current tax law.These changes are highlighted by the following:Increasing the top capital gains tax rate to 39.6%Increasing the top federal income tax rate to 39.6%Increasing the corporate tax rate to 28% Another substantial proposal includes the elimination of the step-up in basis. The potential elimination of the step-up in basis presents an estate planning opportunity to high-networth individuals and family business owners or should at least spur them to contemplate revisiting their estate plans.What Is the Step-Up In Basis?The step-up in basis refers to the current tax environment that allows individuals to transfer appreciated assets at death to their heirs at the current market value without heirs having to pay capital gains taxes on the unrealized capital appreciation of those assets that occurred during the individual’s life. In other words, heirs currently benefit from a “step-up” in tax basis of inherited assets to the market value on the day of death, and no taxes are paid on unrealized capital appreciation of the assets.Biden Administration ProposalThe Biden Administration is proposing to eliminate this step-up in basis. This means that the heir would be responsible for the taxes on the unrealized capital appreciation of the assets being transferred as if the assets had been sold. This would result in a large tax burden on the heir especially when considering that the Biden Administration is also aiming to increase the top capital gains tax rate to 39.6%. Specifically, the proposal would end the step-up in basis for capital gains What Does the Step-Up in Basis Tax Proposal Mean for High Net Worth Individuals and Family Businesses? in excess of $1 million (or $2.5 million for couples when combined with existing real estate exemptions). So, the first $1 million of unrealized capital gains would be exempt from taxes and only the excess would be taxed. However, the proposal does state that “the reform will be designed with protections so that family-owned businesses and farms will not have to pay taxes when given to heirs who continue to run the business.” These protections and exemptions seem to provide some relief for family businesses, but the details of the protections have yet to be specified.TakeawaysThese proposals are certainly not set in stone and may change as the proposals are debated and legislature eventually makes its way through Congress. However, the Biden Administration’s current tax proposals could have a significant impact on the estate planning environment.The potential elimination of the step-up in basis is yet another reason for high-net-worth individuals and family business owners to make estate plans or revisit their current estate planning techniques. When considered alongside other Biden Administration proposals such as an increase in the capital gains tax and the fact that the increased lifetime gift and estate tax exclusion limits are set to sunset in 2025, now is a great time to have a conversation about planning. Contact a professional at Mercer Capital to discuss your specific situation in confidence.
Fairness Opinions  
Fairness Opinions  
Evaluating a Buyer’s Shares From the Seller’s PerspectiveM&A activity in North America (and globally) is rebounding in 2021 after falling to less than $2.0 trillion of deal value in 2020 for just the second time since 2015 according to PitchBook; however, deal activity has accelerated in 2021 and is expected to easily top 2020 assuming no major market disruption due to a confluence of multiple factors.Most acquirers whose shares are publicly traded have seen significant multiple expansion since September 2020;Debt financing is plentiful at record low yields;Private equity is active; and,Hundreds of SPACs have raised capital and are actively seeking acquisitions. The rally in equities, like low borrowing rates, has reduced the cost to finance acquisitions because the majority of stocks experienced multiple expansion rather than material growth in EPS. It is easier for a buyer to issue shares to finance an acquisition if the shares trade at rich valuation than issuing “cheap” shares. As of June 3, 2021, the S&P 500’s P/E based upon trailing earnings (as reported) was 44.9x compared to the long-term average since 1871 of 16x. Obviously trailing earnings were depressed by the impact of COVID-19 on 2020 earnings, but forward multiples are elevated, too. Based upon consensus estimates for 12 months ended March 31, 2022, the S&P 500 is trading for 21x earnings. High multiple stocks can be viewed as strong acquisition currencies for acquisitive companies because fewer shares have to be issued to achieve a targeted dollar value. As such, it is no surprise that the extended rally in equities has supported deal activity this year. However, high multiple stocks may represent an under-appreciated risk to sellers who receive the shares as consideration. Accepting the buyer’s stock raises a number of questions, most which fall into the genre of: what are the investment merits of the buyer’s shares? The answer may not be as obvious as it seems, even when the buyer’s shares are actively traded. Our experience is that some if not most members of a board weighing an acquisition proposal do not have the background to thoroughly evaluate the buyer’s shares. Even when financial advisors are involved there still may not be a thorough vetting of the buyer’s shares because there is too much focus on “price” instead of, or in addition to, “value.” A fairness opinion is more than a three or four page letter that opines as to the fairness from a financial point of a contemplated transaction; it should be backed by a robust analysis of all of the relevant factors considered in rendering the opinion, including an evaluation of the shares to be issued to the selling company’s shareholders. The intent is not to express an opinion about where the shares may trade in the future, but rather to evaluate the investment merits of the shares before and after a transaction is consummated. Key questions to ask about the buyer’s shares include the following:Liquidity of the Shares - What is the capacity to sell the shares issued in the merger? SEC registration and even NASADQ and NYSE listings do not guarantee that large blocks can be liquidated efficiently. Generally, the higher the institutional ownership, the better the liquidity. Also, liquidity may improve with an acquisition if the number of shares outstanding and shareholders increase sufficiently.Profitability and Revenue Trends - The analysis should consider the buyer’s historical growth and projected growth in revenues, operating earnings (usually EBITDA or EBITDA less capital expenditures) in addition to EPS. Issues to be vetted include customer concentrations, the source of growth, the source of any margin pressure and the like. The quality of earnings and a comparison of core vs. reported earnings over a multi-year period should be evaluated.Pro Forma Impact - The analysis should consider the impact of a proposed transaction on revenues, EBITDA, margins, EPS and capital structure. The per share accretion and dilution analysis of such metrics as earnings, EBITDA and dividends should consider both the buyer’s and seller’s perspectives.Dividends - In a yield starved world, dividend paying stocks have greater attraction than in past years. Sellers should not be overly swayed by the pick-up in dividends from swapping into the buyer’s shares; however, multiple studies have demonstrated that a sizable portion of an investor’s return comes from dividends over long periods of time. If the dividend yield is notably above the peer average, the seller should ask why? Is it payout related, or are the shares depressed? Worse would be if the market expected a dividend cut. These same questions should also be asked in the context of the prospects for further increases.Capital Structure - Does the acquirer operate with an appropriate capital structure given industry norms, cyclicality of the business and investment needs to sustain operations? Will the proposed acquisition result in an over-leveraged company, which in turn may lead to pressure on the buyer’s shares and/or a rating downgrade if the buyer has rated debt?Balance Sheet Flexibility - Related to the capital structure should be a detailed review of the buyer’s balance sheet that examines such areas as liquidity, access to bank credit, and the carrying value of assets such as deferred tax assets.Ability to Raise Cash to Close - What is the source of funds for the buyer to fund the cash portion of consideration? If the buyer has to go to market to issue equity and/or debt, what is the contingency plan if unfavorable market conditions preclude floating an issue?Consensus Analyst Estimates - If the buyer is publicly traded and has analyst coverage, consideration should be given to Street expectations vs. what the diligence process determines. If Street expectations are too high, then the shares may be vulnerable once investors reassess their earnings and growth expectations.Valuation - Like profitability, valuation of the buyer’s shares should be judged relative to its history and a peer group presently and relative to a peer group through time to examine how investors’ views of the shares may have evolved through market and profit cycles.Share Performance - Sellers should understand the source of the buyer’s shares performance over several multi-year holding periods. For example, if the shares have significantly outperformed an index over a given holding period, is it because earnings growth accelerated? Or, is it because the shares were depressed at the beginning of the measurement period? Likewise, underperformance may signal disappointing earnings, or it may reflect a starting point valuation that was unusually high.Strategic Position - Assuming an acquisition is material for the buyer, directors of the selling board should consider the strategic position of the buyer, asking such questions about the attractiveness of the pro forma company to other acquirers?Contingent Liabilities - Contingent liabilities are a standard item on the due diligence punch list for a buyer. Sellers should evaluate contingent liabilities too. The list does not encompass every question that should be asked as part of the fairness analysis, but it does illustrate that a liquid market for a buyer’s shares does not necessarily answer questions about value, growth potential and risk profile. We at Mercer Capital have extensive experience in valuing and evaluating the shares (and debt) of financial and non-financial service companies garnered from over three decades of business.
Not All MOEs Are Created Equal
Not All MOEs Are Created Equal
In the December 2020 BankWatch, we provided our M&A outlook for 2021 and touched on themes that we believed would drive deal activity for the year.Our view was that the need to reduce costs in the face of revenue pressure would create urgency for banks to engage in M&A and lead to increased deal activity, given that credit quality remained stable and the economy avoided a double-dip recession. Specifically, we noted that these drivers may cause mergers of equals (“MOEs”) to see more interest.Indeed, four of the largest bank deals in 2020 were structured as MOEs or quasi-MOEs (low premium transactions), and we believed the trend would only gain more traction as economic clarity emerged. Thus far in 2021, against the backdrop of economic reopening, stable asset quality, and favorable bank stock performance, deal activity in the industry has picked up, and MOEs remain a hot topic.S&P Global Market Intelligence reported 53 U.S. bank deals year-to date through April 30, compared to 43 during the same period in 2020.The pace increased notably in April as 19 deals were announced in the month, including two large MOEs.BancorpSouth (BXS) announced a merger with Cadence (CADE) on April 12, and Webster (WBS) announced a deal with Sterling Bancorp (STL) one week later on April 19.U.S. Bank MOEs by Year # of Announced DealBank MOEs are not a new concept, but they have occurred more frequently over the past several years, with the most notable being the BB&T – SunTrust combination to form Truist Financial (TFC).The BB&T-SunTrust combination has been reasonably well received, while it is perhaps early to judge some of the more recent deals.These types of transactions certainly have their merits and can appear strategically and financially compelling.However, MOEs involve a number of risks that should not be overlooked.For management teams considering an MOE, it is important to assess both the benefits and potential risks of such a deal.CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE THE CHART ABOVEBENEFITSReduce CostsPerhaps the most apparent benefit is the opportunity to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency.This is especially valuable in the current environment as revenue growth opportunities are limited.Reported estimates for cost savings in recent MOEs have been on the order of 10% to 15% of the combined expense base.These savings are often achieved by consolidating back office and administrative functions and/or right-sizing the branch network.With the increased adoption of digital banking, branch networks have become less central to banks’ business models and can be a drag on efficiency.MOEs provide management teams an opportunity to re-evaluate their banks’ physical distribution systems and reap the benefits of optimizing the branch network.CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE THE CHART ABOVEInvest in TechnologyThe savings from efficiencies and branch consolidation can be invested in upgrading the bank’s technological capabilities.Almost all recent merger press releases include some type of statement indicating management’s intent to invest in the pro forma bank’s digital capabilities.While the specifics of such investments are often not disclosed, it is clear that management teams view the ability to invest in technology as a key piece of the rationale for merging.By gaining scale, banks can dedicate the necessary resources to develop sophisticated financial technology solutions. Expand FootprintWith a challenging loan growth outlook, many banks are considering entering new markets with favorable demographic characteristics.Unlike a de novo strategy or a series of small acquisitions, an MOE provides an opportunity to quickly establish a sizeable presence in a desired market.In merging with Cadence, BancorpSouth will in a single transaction more than double its deposit base in Texas where it previously had been acquiring smaller banks, with three sub-$500 million asset bank acquisitions since 2018.As banks look to position themselves for growth, MOEs are a potentially attractive option to gain meaningful exposure to new markets.  Diversify Revenue StreamA merger offers opportunities to diversify the revenue stream by either gaining new lending expertise or entering a new fee income line of business.The more retail-focused First Citizens Bancshares will significantly diversify its lending profile when it completes its combination with the commercial-oriented CIT Group, announced in October of last year.Similarly, IberiaBank diversified its revenue stream by combining with First Horizon which has a sizeable fixed income operation.As revenue growth remains challenging, management teams should consider if a transaction might better position their bank for the current environment. RISKSWhile an MOE can offer benefits on a larger scale, it also presents risks on a larger scale.The risks detailed below largely apply to all mergers and are amplified in the case of an MOE. CultureCulture is often the arbiter between success and failure for an MOE.Each of the subsequent risks detailed in this section could be considered a derivative of culture.If two banks with conflicting management philosophies combine, the result is predictable.The 1994 (admittedly before my time) combination of Society Corporation and KeyCorp was considered a struggle for several years as Society was a centralized, commercial-lending powerhouse while KeyCorp was a decentralized, retail-focused operation.Potential merger partners need to honestly assess cultural similarities and differences and evaluate the proposed post-merger management structure before moving forward. It is also important that merging banks be on the same page regarding post-merger ambitions.If one views the merger as “fattening itself up” for a future acquirer while the other desires to remain independent, they will likely diverge in their approach to other strategic decisions.When executives or board members frequently clash, the pro forma entity will struggle. Staff RetentionThere is usually some level of employee fallout with an acquisition, but if enough key employees leave or are poached by competitors, the bank’s post-merger performance will suffer.This is an especially important consideration when acquiring a bank in a new market or with a unique lending niche.If employees with strong ties to the communities in a new market leave for a competitor, it will be difficult to gain traction in that market.Likewise, a new lending specialty or business line can fail if those with the knowledge and experience to run it do not stick around for long. Execution/IntegrationAcquiring a bank of the same or similar size requires a tremendous amount of effort.Loan and deposit systems must be consolidated, customers from the acquired bank must be onboarded to the new bank’s platforms, and branding must be updated across the franchise.If the acquirer’s management team has little experience with acquisitions, successfully integrating with a large partner may prove difficult.When considering an MOE, the acquiring bank must assess what tasks will be necessary to combine the operations of the two organizations and achieve the projected cost savings.Management teams must consider whether their organization has the expertise to do that or, if not, what external resources would be needed. CreditCredit quality issues from an acquired loan portfolio can come back to bite a bank years after the acquisition.Merger partners need to be sure they have performed thorough due diligence on each bank’s loan portfolio and are comfortable with the risk profile.While recent credit quality concerns in the industry have not materialized and greater economic clarity has emerged, would-be acquirers need not be lulled to sleep by the current credit backdrop.The past year has shown that the future is unpredictable, and that forecasts are not always correct. CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE THE CHART ABOVEAdverse Market ReactionIn recent MOEs and low premium transactions, acquirers’ shares have faced an adverse reaction from investors with declines of 5% to 7% in the days following announcement.First Citizens is an exception as its shares were up 34% five days after announcing its acquisition of CIT, which largely reflects the favorable price paid (44% of tangible book value).While it is not uncommon for buyers’ shares to decline following the announcement of an acquisition, these drops could reflect the market’s concerns around the heightened execution and integration risk of an MOE.It is early to judge whether the deals will create value in the long run or if the market’s initial reaction was justified. CONCLUSIONWe believe M&A will continue at a strong pace in the coming months as the economy continues to reopen and banks dust off previously shelved pre-Covid deals.We also expect MOEs will continue to garner more interest due to the aforementioned benefits.Management teams may be more willing to negotiate now than before on price, management roles, board composition, branding, etc.A balanced consideration of the benefits and risks of an MOE is imperative for making the optimal decision.Mercer Capital has significant experience in advising banks as buyers and sellers in transactions, including MOEs. 
Middle Market M&A Amidst a Recovering Economy
Middle Market M&A Amidst a Recovering Economy
By mid-2020, traditional brick and mortar retailers, including well-known brands such as J.C. Penny, J. Crew, and Pier One, were christening what many believed to be the first wave of post COVID-19 bankruptcies.  At the time, our view was that companies impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic might look for relief via M&A while opportunistic buyers might look to take advantage of lower valuations in the market.  While some industries have fared worse than others, the unprecedented fiscal aid pumped into the economy seems to have warded off a wave of bankruptcies in the middle and upper market, or at least prevented a surge at the scale many were predicting.  M&A deal volume recovered in the second half of 2020 after coming to a near halt in the initial months of the pandemic.  Deal volume, while increasing, does generally remain below levels seen in 2018 and 2019.  All the while, capital has flooded the market, with a good amount of it ending up parked in banks, resulting in bank deposits increasing over 20% in 2020.Data per Epic Aacer, Available online at: https://www.aacer.com/blog/january-2021-bankruptcy-filings-continue-historic-slideWhile nothing is for certain, it appears that the worst of the economic risks tied to the pandemic could be behind us.  Estimates range widely, from as early as July 2021 to as late as 2022, but the U.S. now has a path to reaching herd immunity through the administration of multiple vaccines.  As it stands in March 2021, over a quarter of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a vaccine.  The public markets have viewed the rollout favorably, and while one explanation for the market’s strong 2020 performance might be summed up by a blend of a low-risk free rate amidst asset inflation, it is undeniable that valuations in the public markets are pricing in some level of a continued post-pandemic recovery.As the public health crisis continues to improve, one would expect deal volume to increase in tandem.  Prior to the pandemic, many market observers had concluded that small to middle market M&A activity was poised for an uptick, as a generation of baby boomers was expected to retire and in turn monetize their stake of private company ownership.  That generational trend remains in-tact post COVID.  The Biden administrations’ efforts to increase the capital gains tax rate may also accelerate some M&A activity in the immediate short-term, as sellers seek to position transactions to be taxed at current tax rates.While the middle market M&A environment has not witnessed the downward shift in values that one might have expected following the economic shutdown of the early pandemic period; neither has it seen the run-up in values that was exhibited in the public markets throughout the second half of 2020 and into early 2021.  If the public markets provide a meaningful measure for general economic expectations, then how long until these higher expectations are priced into middle market M&A values?  At a minimum, the downside pandemic-related risks that were initially so prevalent appear to have diminished.  As with most things in this environment, risks are very industry specific and there are many industries that have exhibited (and will likely continue to exhibit) dramatic negative shifts in valuations.  Overall, however, transaction multiples appear to have declined only a small amount from pre-pandemic levels. As my colleague Jeff Davis concluded in a recent piece for this blog, the availability of debt financing for most family businesses in 2021 should be favorable, likely with a low cost of credit and lenient terms by historical standards.  Jeff noted some exceptions, such as hotels, retail CRE, restaurants, and tourism-related businesses, but on the whole banks are eager to invest.  Loans in the commercial banking system declined for the first time in a decade in 2020 and for only the second time in 28 years while deposits remain historically high.  In the current low-rate environment, revenue pressures are high for banks as cash and bonds yield little to nothing.  Without a competitive alternative, banks and investors flush with capital are under pressure to compete for lending opportunities to produce a return while loan demand is weak as the U.S. market rounds what many believe to be the very beginnings of a new economic cycle. For family business directors, 2021 should be an opportune time to consider making an acquisition.  General indications on valuation suggest that the private company M&A market has not been priced-up at anywhere near what has been seen in the public markets.  While this difference may be caused by a public market over-valuation issue that is “corrected” in the short-term, it suggests that there could be positive momentum in private company valuations as the economy continues to move through subsequent stages of the post-pandemic recovery.  A good M&A deal can be made even better with favorable financing, which should be available to many borrowers in the current environment. We can’t predict the future, but those who take a buyer’s view of the M&A market now might be rewarded with enhanced returns.  With pent up demand and a high availability of capital, we anticipate a rise in M&A activity over the next year with the best valuations and financing deals likely favoring the early bidders.
Mortgage Banking Lagniappe
Mortgage Banking Lagniappe
2020 was a tough year for most of us. Schools and churches closed, sports were cancelled, and many lost their jobs. There were a select few, however, that thrived during 2020. Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk saw a meteoric rise in their personal net worth over the past 12 months. Mortgage bankers are another group showered with unexpected riches last year (and apparently this year).As shown in Figure 1, long-term U.S. Treasury and mortgage rates have been in a long-term secular decline for about four decades. Last year, long-term rates fell to all-time lows because of the COVID induced recession after having declined modestly in 2019 following too much Fed tightening in 2018. The surprise was not an uptick in refinancing activity, but that it was accompanied by a strong purchase market too. Housing was and still is hot; maybe too hot. Overlaid on the record volume (the Mortgage Bankers of America estimates $3.6 trillion of mortgages were originated in 2020 compared to $2.3 trillion in 2019 and $1.7 trillion in 2017 and 2018) was historically high gain on sale (“GOS”) margins. The industry was capacity constrained after cutting staff in 2018 when rates were then rising. Private equity and other owners of mortgage companies set their eyes on the public markets after many companies attempted to sell in 2018 with mixed success at best. During the second half of 2020, Rocket Mortgage ($RKT) and Guild Mortgage ($GHLD) made an initial public offering and began trading while seven other nonbank mortgage companies have either filed for an IPO or announced plans to do so. Also, United Wholesale Mortgage ($UWMC) went public by merging with a SPAC. The inability of several (or more) mortgage companies to undergo an IPO at a price that was acceptable to the sellers has an important message. The industry was accorded a low valuation by Wall Street on presumably peak earnings even though many mortgage companies will produce an ROE that easily exceeds 30%. The assumption is that earnings will decline because rates will rise and/or more capacity will reduce GOS margins. While it is likely 2020 will represent a cyclical peak, no one knows how steep (or gentle) the descent will be and how deep the trough will be. Mortgage companies may produce 20% or better ROEs for several years. One may question the multiple to place on 2020 earnings, but book value could double in three or four years if conditions remain reasonably favorable. Community and regional banks with mortgage operations have benefitted from the mortgage boom, too. Although various bank indices were negative for the year, it could have been much worse given investor fears surrounding credit losses and permanent impairment to net interest margins given the collapse in rates. In a sense, outsized mortgage banking revenues funded reserve builds for many banks and masked revenue weakness attributable to falling NIMs. The average NIM for banks in the U.S. with assets between $300 million and $1 billion as of September 30, 2020 is shown in Figure 2. The NIM fell 45bps from 3Q19 to 3Q20 due to multiple moving pieces but primarily reflected an increase in liquid assets because deposits flooded into the banking system and because the reduction in the yield on loans and securities was greater than the reduction in the cost of funds. Unless the Fed is able (and willing) to raise short-term policy rates in the next year or two, we suspect loan yields will grind lower as lenders compete heavily for assets with a coupon (i.e., loans) because liquidity yields nothing and bonds yield very little. Deposit costs will not offset because rates are or soon will be near a floor. Fee income and expense management are more critical than ever for banks to maintain acceptable profitability. When analyzing the same group of banks (assets $300M - $1B), banks with higher GOS revenues as a percentage of total revenue tended to be more profitable. As shown in Figure 3, median profitability was ~15% greater in the trailing twelve months for banks more engaged in mortgage activity than those that were not. Selling long-term fixed-rate mortgages for most banks is a given because the duration of the asset is too long, especially when rates are low. The decision is more nuanced for 15-year mortgages with an average life of perhaps 6-7 years. With loan demand weak and banks extremely liquid, most banks will retain all ARM production and perhaps some 15-year paper as an alternative to investing in MBS because yields on originated paper are much better. As for 30-year mortgages, net production profits for 3Q20 increased above 200bps according to the MBA for the first time since the MBA began tracking the data in 2008. Originating and selling long-term fixed rate mortgages has been exceptionally profitable in 2020. Mortgage banking in the form of originations is a highly cyclical business (vs servicing); however, it is a counter-cyclical business that tends to do well when the economy is struggling and therefore core bank profitability is under pressure. We have long been observers of the mortgage banking conundrum of “what is the earnings multiple?” It is a tougher question for an independent mortgage company compared to a bank where the earnings are part of a larger organization. Even when outsized mortgage banking earnings may weigh on a bank’s overall P/E, mortgage earnings can be highly accretive to capital. In the February issue of Bank Watch, we will explore how to value a mortgage company either as a stand-alone or as a subsidiary or part of a bank to understand in more detail the true valuation impacts of mortgage revenue. Originally appeared in Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch, January 2021.
Mortgage Banking Lagniappe (Part II)
Mortgage Banking Lagniappe (Part II)
The January Bank Watch provided an overview of the mortgage industry and its importance in boosting bank earnings in the current low-rate environment. As we discussed, mortgage volume is inversely correlated to interest rates and more volatile than net interest income. In this article, we discuss key considerations in valuing a mortgage company/subsidiary, including how the public markets price them.Valuation ApproachesSimilar to typical bank valuations, there are three approaches to consider when determining the value of a mortgage company/subsidiary: the asset approach, the market approach, and the income approach. However, since the composition of both the balance sheet and income statement differ from banks, several nuances arise.Asset ApproachAsset based valuation methods include those methods that write up (or down) or otherwise adjust the various tangible and/or intangible assets of an enterprise. For a mortgage company, these assets may include mortgage servicing rights (“MSR”). The fair value of the MSR book is the net present value of servicing revenue minus related expenses, giving consideration to prepayment speeds, float, and servicing advances. MSR fair value tends to move opposite to origination volume. For example, MSR values tend to increase in periods marked by low origination activity. Other key items to consider include any non-MSR intangible assets, proprietary technology, funding, relationships with originators and referral sources, and the existence of any excess equity.Market Approach Marketmethods include a variety of methods that compare the subject with transactions involving similar investments, including publicly traded guideline companies and sales involving controlling interests in public or private guideline companies. Historically, publicly traded pure-play mortgage companies were a rare breed; however, the COVID-19 mortgage boom has produced several IPOs, and others may follow. There are many publicly traded banks that derive significant revenues from mortgage operations, especially in this low-rate environment.The basic method utilized under the market approach is the guideline public company or guideline transactions method. The most commonly used version of the guideline company method develops a price/earnings (P/E) ratio with which to capitalize net income. If the public company group is sufficiently homogeneous with respect to the companies selected and their financial performance, an average or median P/E ratio may be calculated as representative of the group. Other activity-based valuation metrics for the mortgage industry include EBITDA, revenues, or originations.Another relevant indicator includes price/tangible book value as investors tend to treat tangible book value as a proxy for the institution’s earnings capabilities. The key to this method lies in finding comparable companies with a similar revenue mix (high fee income) and profitability.When examining the public markets, there are generally two types of companies that can be useful in gathering financial and valuation data: banks emphasizing mortgage activities and non-bank mortgage companies.Group 1: Banks with Mortgage Revenue EmphasisFigure 1 details the first step in identifying a group of banks with significant mortgage operations. First, financial data from the most recently available quarter (4Q20) regarding banks with assets between $1 billion and $20 billion were identified. Once that broad group of banks is identified, it is then important to segment the group further to identify those with significant gain on loan sales as a proportion of revenue and particularly those with higher than typical mortgage revenues/originations as opposed to SBA or PPP loan originations.Group 2: Non-Bank Mortgage CompaniesNon-bank mortgage companies found favor with the public markets in 2020 as beneficiaries of the sharp reduction in mortgage rates. In 2021 investor sentiment has faltered due to the impact of rising long-term rates on consensus earning estimates. Several companies undertook IPOs, while another company went public via merging with a SPAC. This expanded the group of non-bank mortgage companies from which to derive valuation multiples and benchmarking information. Figure 2 includes total return data for non-bank mortgage companies. Notable transactions include the following: Rocket Mortgage (NYSE: RKT) raised $1.8 billion via an IPO at an approximate $36 billion valuation in August; Guild Holdings (NASDAQ: GHLD) raised ~$98 million in a November IPO; United Wholesale Mortgage (NYSE: UWM) went public in the largest SPAC deal in history (~$16 billion) that closed in 2021; and Loan Depot (NYSE: LDI) went public during February by raising $54 million. Other pending IPOs based upon public S-1 filings include Caliber Home Loans and Better.com. Amerihome Mortgage Company had filed a registration statement but apparently obtained better pricing through an acquisition by Western Alliance Bancorp (NYSE: WAL) during February that was valued at ~ $1.0 billion at announcement, or about 1.4x the company’s tangible book value. While this activity is positive for mortgage companies, the IPOs were downsized in terms of the number of shares sold with pricing below the initial target range or at the low end of the range as investors hedged how far and how fast earnings could fall in a rising rate environment. For guideline M&A transactions, the data is often limited as there may only be a handful of transactions in a given year and even fewer with reported deal values and pricing multiples. However, meaningful data can sometimes be derived from announced transactions with transparent pricing and valuation metrics. After deriving the “core” earnings estimate for the mortgage company as well as reasonable valuation multiples, other key valuation elements to consider include: any excess equity, mortgage servicing rights, unique technology solutions that differentiate the company, origination mix (refi vs. purchase; retail vs. correspondent or wholesale), geographic footprint of originations/ locations, and risk profile of the balance sheet and originations (for example, agency vs. non-agency loans). Income ApproachValuation methods under the income approach include those methods that provide for the direct capitalization of earnings estimates, as well as valuation methods calling for the forecasting of future benefits (earnings or cash flows) and then discounting those benefits to the present at an appropriate discount rate. For banks, the discounted cash flow (“DCF”) method can be a useful indication of value due to the availability and reliability of bank forecast/capital plans. However, due to the volatile and unpredictable nature of mortgage earnings, this method faces challenges when applied to a mortgage company. In certain situations, the DCF method may not be utilized due to uncertainties regarding the earnings outlook. In others, the DCF method may be applied with the subject company’s level of mortgage origination activity tied to a forecast for overall industry originations and historical gain on sale margins.Given the potentially limited comparable company data and the difficulty associated with developing a long-term forecast for a DCF analysis, the single period income capitalization method may be useful.This method involves determining an ongoing level of earnings for the company, usually by estimating an ongoing level of mortgage origination activity and a pretax margin and capitalizing it with a “cap rate”. The cap rate is a function of a perpetual earnings growth rate and a discount rate that is correlated with the entity’s risk. Whereas we would likely use recent earnings in the market approach, in the income capitalization method it makes sense to normalize earnings using a longer-term average, which considers origination and margin levels over an entire mortgage operating cycle.Mortgage earnings and margins are cyclical. Due to the volatile nature of mortgage earnings, a higher discount rate is normally used. Therefore, a mortgage company’s earnings typically receive a lower multiple than a bank’s more stable earnings.ConclusionA mortgage subsidiary can be a beneficial tool for community banks to increase earnings and diversify revenue. This strategy, while clearly beneficial now, can be utilized throughout the business cycle. As rates fall and net interest income faces pressure, gains on the sale of loans should increase (and vice versa) to create counter-cyclical revenues. As we’ve discussed, the inherently volatile income from a mortgage subsidiary is not usually treated equally to net interest income in the public markets. Although, when it comes to price/tangible book value multiples, profitability is critical whether it is driven by mortgage activity or not. There are many factors to consider in valuing a mortgage company.If you are considering this line of business to diversify your bank or desire a valuation of a mortgage operation, feel free to reach out for further discussion.Originally appeared in Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch, February 2021.
Personal Goodwill: An Illustrative Example of an Auto Dealership
Personal Goodwill: An Illustrative Example of an Auto Dealership
This article discusses important concepts of personal goodwill in divorce litigation engagements. The discussion relates directly to several divorce litigation cases involving owners of automobile dealerships. These real life examples display the depth of analysis that is critical to identifying the presence of personal goodwill and then estimating or allocating the associated value with the personal goodwill. The issues discussed here pertain specifically to considerations utilized in auto dealer valuations, but the overall concepts can be applied to most service-based industries.It is important that the appraiser understands the industry and performs a thorough analysis of all relevant industry factors. It is also important to determine how each state treats personal goodwill. Some states consider personal goodwill to be a separate asset, and some do not make a specific distinction for it and include it in the marital assets.Personal goodwill was an issue in several of our recent litigated divorce engagements. It is more prevalent in certain industries than others and varies from matter to matter. However, although there are several accepted methodologies to determine personal goodwill, there is not a textbook that discusses where it exists and where it doesn’t. Before any attempts to measure and quantify it, an important question to ask is “Does it exist?” Often with ambiguous concepts like personal goodwill, the adage “you know it when you see it” is most appropriate. In this article, we examine personal and enterprise goodwill using a specific fact pattern unique to the auto dealership industry. Beyond this illustrative example, the analyses can be applied in other industries, but must be considered carefully for the unique facts and circumstances of each matter.What Is Personal Goodwill?Personal goodwill is value stemming from an individual’s personal service to a business and is an asset that tends to be owned by the individual, not the business itself. Personal goodwill is part of the larger bucket of an intangible asset known as goodwill. The other portion of goodwill, referred to as enterprise or business goodwill, relates to the intangible asset involved and owned by the business itself.1Commercial and family law litigation cases aren’t typically governed by case law resulting from Tax Court matters and can differ by jurisdiction, but Tax Court decisions offer more insight into defining the conditions and questions that should be asked in an evaluation of personal goodwill. One seminal Tax Court case on personal goodwill is Martin Ice Cream vs. Commissioner.2 Among the Court’s discussions and questions to review were the following:Do personal relationships exist between customers/suppliers and the owner of a business?Do these relationships persist in the absence of formal contractual relationships?Does an owner’s personal reputation and/or perception in the industry provide intangible benefit to the business?Are practices of the owner innovative or distinguishable in his or her industry, such as the owner having added value to the particular industry?Another angle with which to evaluate the presence of personal goodwill, specifically to professional practices, is provided in Lopez v. Lopez.3 Lopez suggests several factors that should be considered in the valuation of professional (personal) goodwill as:The age and health of the individual;The individual’s demonstrated earning power;The individual’s reputation in the community for judgement, skill, and knowledge;The individual’s comparative professional successThe nature and duration of the professional’s practice as a sole proprietor or as a contributing member of a partnership or professional corporation.Why Is Personal Goodwill Important?Many states identify and distinguish between personal goodwill and enterprise goodwill. Further, numerous states do NOT consider the personal goodwill of a business to be a marital asset for family law cases. For example, a business could have a value of $1 million, but a certain portion of the value is attributable and allocated to personal goodwill. In this example, the value of the business would be reduced for personal goodwill for family law cases and the marital value of the business would be considered at something less than the $1 million value.How Applicable/Prevalent Is Personal Goodwill in the Auto Dealer Industry?In litigation matters, we always try to avoid the absolutes: always and never. The concept of personal goodwill is easier identified and more prevalent in service industries such as law practices, accounting firms, and smaller physician practices. Does that mean it doesn’t apply to more traditional retail and manufacturing industries? In each case, the fundamental question that should be first answered is “Is this an industry or company where personal goodwill could be present?”For the auto dealer industry, the principal product, outside of the service department, is a tangible product – new and used vehicles. In order for personal goodwill to be present in this industry, the owner/dealer principal would have to exhibit a unique set of skills that specifically translates to the heightened performance of their business.We are all familiar with regional dealerships possessing the name of the owner/dealer principal in the name of the business. However, just having the name on a business doesn’t signify the presence of personal goodwill. An examination of the customer base would be needed to justify personal goodwill. It would be more difficult to argue that customers are purchasing vehicles from a particular dealership only for the name on the door, rather than the more obvious factors of brands offered, availability of inventory, convenience, etc. An extreme example might be having a recognized celebrity as the name/face of the dealership, but even then, it would be debated how materially that affects sales and success.Auto dealers attempt to track performance and customer satisfaction through surveys, which could provide an avenue to determine this value (if, for example, factors that influenced the decision to buy listed Joe Dealer as being their primary motivation) though this is still unlikely and would be subject to debate.Another consideration of the impact of a dealer’s name on the success/value of the business would be how actively involved the owner/dealer principal is and how directly have they been involved with the customer in the selling process. Simply put, there should be higher bars to clear than just having the name in the dealership for personal goodwill to be present. In more obvious examples of personal goodwill in professional practices, the customer usually interacts directly with the owner/professional such as with the attorney or doctor in our previous examples. How often does the customer of an auto dealership come into contact or deal directly with the owner/dealer principal, or do they generally engage with the salespeople, service manager, or the general manger?Another factor that often helps identify the existence of personal goodwill is the presence of an employment agreement and/or non-compete agreement. The prevailing thought is that an owner of a business without these items would theoretically be able to exit the business and open a similar business and compete directly with the prior business. Neither of these items typically exist with an owner of an auto dealership. However, owners of auto dealerships must be approved as dealer principals by the manufacturer.The transferability of a dealer principal relationship is not guaranteed, and certainly an existing dealer principal would not be able to obtain an additional franchise to directly compete with an existing franchise location of the same manufacturer for obvious area of responsibility (AOR) constraints. So, does the fact that most dealer principals don’t have an employment or non-compete agreement signify that personal goodwill must be present? Not necessarily. Again it relates back to the central questions of whether an owner/dealer principal is directly involved in the business, has a unique set of skills that contributed to a heightened success of the business, and does that owner/dealer principal have a direct impact on attracting customers to their particular dealership that could not be replicated by another individual.ConclusionPersonal goodwill in an auto dealership, and in any industry, can become a contested item in a litigation case because it can reduce the enterprise value consideration, reduced by the amount allocated to personal goodwill. As much as the allocation, quantification, and methodology used to determine the amount of personal goodwill will come into question, several central questions should be examined and answered before simply jumping to the conclusion that personal goodwill exists. Instead of arguing whether the value of an auto dealership should be reduced by some percentage, the real debate should center around the examination of whether personal goodwill exists in the first place. The difference in reports from valuation for experts in litigation matters generally falls within the examination and support of the assumptions (that lead to differences in conclusions). If present, personal goodwill for an auto dealership, or any company in any industry for that matter, must exist beyond just having the owner’s name in the title of the business.1 In the auto dealer industry, goodwill and other intangible assets are referred to as Blue Sky value. 2 Martin Ice Cream Co. v. Commissioner, 110 T.C. 189 (1998). 3 In re Marriage of Lopez, 113 Cal. Rptr. 58 (38 Cal. App. 3d 1044 (1974).
Labor Shortage in Trucking Industry Leading to a Rise in Consumer Pricing
Labor Shortage in Trucking Industry Leading to a Rise in Consumer Pricing

A truck driver’s lifestyle is typically portrayed as being lackluster due to exhausting work hours and countless days away from home. As a result of the work environment for a driver, prospects debating entering the labor force in this career field ponder whether driving would be an enjoyable lifestyle. Due to the notion that the younger generation typically finds a career path in trucking unappealing, the demographics of this industry lean towards older males with 27% of truck drivers being over the age of 55 and the median age being 46.
Patel v. Patel
Patel v. Patel
In this case, the parties raised the matter to appeals for two issues: 1) whether the trial court erred in awarding Wife alimony in futuro of $7,500 per month, and 2) whether Wife is entitled to attorney’s fees.The parties divorced after a 13 year marriage in which the family was initially solely supported by Wife’s $40,000 annual income. However, at the time of divorce, Husband was earning approximately $850,000 per year and Wife was not employedbut was a full-time student (due to frequent moves but also a mutual decision). The trial court found that long-term alimony was appropriate given Wife’s contribution to Husband’s earning capacity, her inability to achieve his earning capacity despite her efforts at education, and the parties’ relatively high standard of living during the marriage.At the beginning of the marriage, the husband was a full-time medical student earning no income.Across the husband’s education and career, the parties moved from Georgia to Kentucky to Florida to Ohio, and finally to Jackson, Tennessee. During separation, Wife enrolled in a college to obtain a Bachelor’s Degree in Accounting and hoped to eventually enroll in a Master’s Degree program. Wife was a full-time student at the time of trial.Husband testified that he planned to move to Florida and his base pay upon moving to Florida after the divorce would be approximately $450,000. Husband admitted, however, that this figure did not account for the bonuses that Husband had historically received and had caused his income to increase substantially.Wife’s sole income at the time of the divorce amounted to approximately $2,000 per year in dividends.Each of the parties created a budget of estimated forward expenses. During proceedings, each party claimed that the other was controlling the parties’ finances, refusing to permit the other to fund basic expenses. With regard to expenses, Husband claimed as an expense $10,000 per month for savings in the event that he is sued for malpractice and his insurance does not cover the entire award, costs for his parents’ health insurance, considerable maintenance on his car, and large charitable contributions. With regard to Wife’s expenses, Husband contended that they were inflated over historical actual expenses. Husband testified that expenses incurred by Wife following the separation were for extravagant gifts to family that were not representative of the parties’ lifestyle throughout the marriage.Demonstrating the marital estate and standard of living, the parties had accumulated a level of wealth during the marriage, including two cars, several retirement accounts, and savings accounts. Husband paid off the mortgage of their Jackson, Tennessee home during the pendency of the divorce. As such, the parties had no debt at the time of the divorce and considerable assets. During the marriage, the parties also took several vacations, both in the United States and outside the country.The trial court made the following statement on the earnings capacity of each party:Husband’s gross earning capacity is currently about $850,000 per year. His net income based on his effective tax rate for 2016 would be in the range of about $550,000. Husband owes no debt, and will have significant assets from the property division. Wife’s current income is zero essentially, but when she finishes school, if she is able to obtain employment in her field, and achieve a CPA designation, her gross income should be in the range of $55,000 according to testimony. If she pursues a Master’s Degree and achieves it, her earning capacity could increase to $85,000 per year. Thus, there is a significant difference between the Husband’s and Wife’s earning capacity. Their obligations are about the same.The appellate court made the following conclusion on earnings capacity:..the evidence does not clearly and convincingly show that Wife did not significantly contribute to Husband’s career and resulting earning capacity. Rather, the evidence supports the trial court’s finding that Wife made tangible and intangible contributions to the Husband’s increased earning capacity.Considering the factors for spousal support unique to this matter, the trial court found that the alimony in futuro of $7,500 per month alimony was appropriate given: 1)Wife’s contribution to husband’s earning capacity, 2) Wife’s inability to achieve Husband’s earning capacity despite her efforts at education, and 3) the parties’ relatively high standard of living during the marriage. Discerning no reversible error, the appellate court affirmed the trial court in all respects. Also, given the considerable property awarded to Wife in the divorce, the appellate court declined to award attorney’s fees incurred on appeal in this case.A financial expert witness can significantly assist in the court’s determination of divorcing parties’ ability and need to pay in its determinations for spousal support. The analysis is a complex matter and calls for the expertise and analysis of a financial expert. Refer to our piece, “What Is a Lifestyle Analysis and Why Is it Important?” for more information about the process, analysis, and support that can be provided by a financial expert.
Seeking the Value of SEACOR
Seeking the Value of SEACOR
On December 7, 2020, publicly traded SEACOR Holdings announced that it had entered into an agreement with American Industrial Partners (AIP) to go private. The cash transaction, estimated to be worth slightly over $1 billion, is expected to close during the first quarter of 2021. Other transportation companies in AIP’s portfolio include EnTrans International, LLC (bulk and energy transportation) and Rand Logistics (bulk freight shipping).
Fresh Start Accounting Valuation Considerations: Measuring the Reorganization Value of Identifiable Intangible Assets
Fresh Start Accounting Valuation Considerations: Measuring the Reorganization Value of Identifiable Intangible Assets
Upon emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, companies are required to apply the provisions of Accounting Standards Codification 852, Reorganizations. Under this treatment, referred to as “fresh start” accounting, companies exiting Chapter 11 are required to re-state assets and liabilities at fair value, as if the company were being acquired at a price equal to the reorganization value. As a result, two principal valuation-related questions are relevant for companies in bankruptcy:Reorganization Value - As noted in ASC 852, Reorganizations, reorganization value “generally approximates the fair value of the entity before considering liabilities and approximates the amount a willing buyer would pay for the assets of the entity immediately after the restructuring.” (ASC 852-05-10) Discounted cash flow analysis is the principal technique for measuring reorganization value. In certain cases, depending on the nature of the business and availability of relevant guideline companies, a method under the market approach may also be appropriate. A reliable cash flow forecast and estimate of the appropriate cost of capital are essential inputs to measuring reorganization value.Identifiable Intangible Assets - When fresh-start accounting is required, it may be appropriate to allocate a portion of the reorganization value to specific identifiable intangible assets such as tradenames, technology, or customer relationships. We discuss valuation techniques for identifiable intangible assets in the remainder of this article.Measuring the Fair Value of Identifiable Intangible Assets When valuing identifiable intangible assets, we use valuation methods under the cost, income, and market approaches.The Cost ApproachThe cost approach seeks to measure the future benefits of ownership by quantifying the amount of money that would be required to replace the future service capability of the subject intangible asset. The assumption underlying the cost approach is that the cost to purchase or develop new property is commensurate with the economic value of the service that the property can provide during its life. The cost approach does not directly consider the economic benefits that can be achieved or the time period over which they might continue. It is an inherent assumption with this approach that economic benefits exist and are of sufficient amount and duration to justify the developmental expenditures.Methods under the cost approach are frequently used to measure the fair value of assembled workforce, proprietary software, and other technology-related assets.The Market ApproachThe market approach provides an indication of value by comparing the price at which similar property has been exchanged between willing buyers and sellers. When the market approach is used, an indication of value of a specific intangible asset can be gained from looking at the prices paid for comparable property.Since there is rarely an active market for identifiable intangible assets apart from broader business combination transactions, valuation methods under the market approach are not commonly used to value identifiable intangible assets.However, available market data, such as observed royalty rates in licensing transactions, is an important input in valuation methods under the income approach such as the relief-from-royalty method. Other market-derived data helps to inform estimates of the cost of capital and other valuation inputs, as well.The Income ApproachThe income approach focuses on the capacity of the subject intangible asset to produce future economic benefits. The underlying theory is that the value of the subject property can be measured as the present worth of the net economic benefits to be received over the life of the intangible asset.Using valuation methods under the income approach, we estimate future benefits expected to result from the subject asset and an appropriate rate at which to discount these expected benefits to the present. The most common valuation methods under the income approach are the relief from royalty method and multi-period excess earnings method, or MPEEM.The relief from royalty method seeks to measure the incremental net profitability available to the owner of the subject intangible asset by avoiding the royalty payments that would otherwise be required to enjoy the benefits of ownership of the asset. When applying the relief from royalty method requires specification of three variables: 1) The expected stream of revenue attributable to the identifiable intangible asset, 2) An appropriate royalty rate to apply to that revenue stream, and 3) An appropriate discount rate to measure the present value of the avoided royalty payments. The relief from royalty method is most commonly used to value tradename and technology assets for which market-based royalty rates may be observed.The MPEEM is a form of discounted cash flow analysis that measures the value of an intangible asset as the present value of the incremental after-tax cash flows attributable only to the subject asset. In order to isolate those cash flows, we first develop a forecast of the expected revenues and associated operating costs attributable to the asset.Next, we apply contributory asset charges to reflect the economic “rent” for use of the other assets that must be in place to generate the projected operating earnings. In other words, the MPEEM recognizes that the subject identifiable intangible asset generates operating earnings only in concert with other assets of the business.Finally, we reduce the net after-tax cash flows attributable to the subject identifiable intangible asset to present value using a risk-adjusted discount rate. The indicated value is the sum of the present values of the “excess earnings” of the expected life of the subject asset. We often apply the MPEEM to measure the fair value of customer relationship and technology intangibles. ConclusionThe valuation techniques for identifiable intangible assets are rooted in the fundamental elements of business valuation, cash flow and risk, under the cost, market, and income approaches. However, when valuing identifiable intangible assets, we use valuation methods adapted to the unique attributes of those assets.
Estate Planning When Bank Stocks Are Depressed
Estate Planning When Bank Stocks Are Depressed
Maybe not for the best of reasons, the stars have aligned for bank investors who have significant interests in banks to undertake robust estate planning this year. Bank stock valuations are depressed as a result of the recession that developed from the COVID-19 policy responses, including a return to a zero interest rate policy (“ZIRP”) that is now known as the effective lower bound (“ELB”). The result is severe compression in net interest margins (“NIMs”), while the extent of credit losses will not be known until 2021 or perhaps even 2022.As shown in Figure 1, bank stocks have produced a negative total return that ranges from -27% for the twelve months ended September 25, 2020 for the SNL Large Cap Bank Index to -36% for the SNL Mid Cap Bank Index. At the other extreme are tech stocks. The NASDAQ Composite has produced a one-year total return of 35%–a 70% spread between the two sectors.Valuations for banks are depressed and are comparable to lows observed on March 24, 2020 when market panic and forced selling by levered investors peaked and March 9, 2009 when investors feared a possible nationalization of the large banks. Price-to-tangible book value (“P/TBV”) multiples are presented in Figure 2, while price-to-earnings (“P/E”) ratios based upon the last 12-month (“LTM”) earnings are presented in Figure 3.(Note—while P/TBV multiples are little changed from March 24, 2020, P/E ratios have increased because reserve building and reduced NIMs have reduced LTM earnings).No one knows the future, but assuming reversion to the mean eventually occurs bank stocks could rally as earnings improve once credit costs decline even if NIMs remain depressed, resulting in higher earnings and multiple expansion. Relative to ten-year average multiples based upon daily observations, banks are 30-40% cheap to their post-Great Financial Crisis trading history. In effect, current gifting and other estate planning could lock in significant tax benefits assuming a Japan and Europe scenario does not develop in the U.S. where banks are “re-rated” and underperform for decades.A second reason to consider significant estate planning transactions this year is the potential change in Washington if 2021 sees a Biden Administration backstopped with a Democrat-controlled Senate and House.Vice President Biden’s proposed estate tax changes include the elimination of basis step-up, significant reductions to the unified credit (the amount of wealth that passes tax-free from estate to beneficiary) and gift tax exemption, and increasing current capital gains tax rates to ordinary income levels for high earning households.The cumulative effect of these changes is a substantial increase in high net worth clients’ estate tax liabilities if Biden’s current proposals become law.Basis step-up is a subtle but important feature of tax law.Unusual among industrialized nations, in the United States the assets in an estate pass to heirs at a tax value established at death (or at an alternate valuation date).Even though no tax is collected on the first $11.6 million per person, the tax basis for the heir is “stepped-up” to the new value established at death.Other countries handle this issue differently, and Biden favors eliminating the step-up in tax basis.Further, he prefers taxing the embedded capital gain at death.Canada, for example, does this – treating a bequest as any other transfer and assessing capital gains taxes to the estate of the decedent.Fortunately, there are several things bank shareholders can do now to minimize exposure to these potential tax law changes.Taking advantage of the current high-level of gift tax exemptions ($11.58 million per individual or $23.16 million per married couple) could save millions in taxes if Biden’s proposed lower exemption of $3.5 million per individual becomes law. Other options include the formation of trusts or asset holding entities to transfer wealth to the next generation in a tax-efficient manner.Proper estate planning can mitigate the adverse effects of higher taxes on wealth transfers, but the window to do so may be closing if we have a regime change later this year. Further, the demand (and associated cost) for estate planning services may go up significantly in November, so you need to apprise your clients of these potential changes before it’s too late.In the 1990s, the unified credit (the amount of wealth that passes tax-free from estate to beneficiary) was only $650 thousand, or $1.3 million for a married couple.The unified credit was not indexed for inflation, and the threshold for owing taxes was so low that many families we now consider “mass-affluent” engaged in sophisticated estate tax planning techniques to minimize their liability.Then in 2000, George W. Bush was elected President, and estate taxes were to be phased out.Over the past decade, the law has changed several times, but mostly to the benefit of wealthier estates.That $650 thousand exemption from estate taxes is now $11.6 million.A married couple would need a net worth of almost $25 million before owing any estate tax, such that now only a sliver of bank stock investors require heavy duty tax planning.That may all be about to change. Vice President Biden has more than gestured that he plans to increase estate taxes by lowering the unified credit, raising rates, and potentially eliminating the step-up in basis that has long been a feature of tax law in the United States.Talk is cheap. But investors take heed; now may be the time to execute rather than plan. Originally appeared in Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch, September 2020.
Four Reasons to Consider a Stock Repurchase Program
Four Reasons to Consider a Stock Repurchase Program
Bank stocks rallied in the first few weeks of November 2020 as the market’s Thanksgiving dinner came early, and it digested several issues including positive news on the COVID-19 vaccine candidates.While significant uncertainty still exists on credit conditions, COVID-19, and the economic outlook, bank valuations and earnings expectations also benefitted from the yield curve steepening as evidenced by the 10-year Treasury moving up from ~50 bps in early August to ~85 bps in mid-November. Despite the recent rise in bank stock pricing, bank stock valuations are still depressed relative to pre-COVID levels as a result of the recession that developed from the pandemic and ensuing policy responses.A primary headwind for banks is the potential compression in net interest margins (“NIMs”) following a return to a zero interest rate policy (“ZIRP”) that is now known as the effective lower bound (“ELB”).Additionally, credit risk remains heightened for the sector compared to pre-pandemic levels as the extent of credit losses resulting from the pandemic and economic slowdown will not be known until 2021 or perhaps even 2022. Amidst this backdrop, many banks and their directors are evaluating strategic options and ways to create value for shareholders.While the Federal Reserve has prohibited the largest U.S. banks from share repurchases, the current environment has prompted many community banks to announce share buyback plans. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, more than forty U.S. community banks announced buyback plans in the third quarter and the trend has continued in the fourth quarter with another 36 buyback announcements, including new plans, extensions of existing plans, and reinstatements of previously suspended plans, in October.In our view, there are four primary reasons that many community and regional banks are announcing or expanding share repurchase programs in the current environment.1) Valuations are Lower Relative to Historical LevelsSince the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the banking sector has underperformed the broader market due to concerns on credit quality and a prolonged low-interest rate environment.Despite the November rally, bank stocks are still trading at lower multiples than observed in recent years.Furthermore, many banks are finding themselves with excess liquidity in light of weaker loan demand and growing deposits. In a depressed price environment, share repurchases can be a favorable use of capital, particularly when pricing is at a discount to book value and is accretive to book value per share.As shown in the chart below, the average P/TBV multiple has declined for all of the SNL market capitalization bank indices since the beginning of 2020.The decline has been most pronounced for the Micro Cap index, with the average P/TBV multiple for banks with a total market capitalization of less than $250 million falling from 133% to 102%. 2) Favorable Tax Environment for Shareholders Seeking LiquidityCapital gains tax rates are low relative to historical levels and the potential for higher capital gains tax rates has risen under President-elect Biden. As part of his tax plan, Biden has proposed increasing the top tax rate for capital gains for the highest earners from 23.8% to 39.6% (akin to ordinary income levels), which would be the largest increase in capital gains rates in history.While the ability for Biden’s tax plan to become reality is uncertain, many community banks have an aging shareholder base with long-term capital gains and it is an issue worth watching and planning for as poor planning can leave significant tax consequences for the shareholder or his or her heirs.A share repurchase program can provide liquidity to shareholders who may be apt to take advantage of the current capital gains rates that are low by historical standards and lower than the rates proposed by President-elect Biden.3) Relatively Low Borrowing Costs and Sufficient Capital for Many Community BanksDespite the unique issues brought about by the pandemic and the uncertain economic outlook, many community banks are well capitalized and have “excess” capital at the bank level and perhaps even an unleveraged holding company.We have written previously about the idea of robust stress testing and capital planning given the economic environment but note that a recent survey indicated that most bankers believe capital levels are sufficient to weather the economic downturn.Our research also indicates that rates on subordinated debt issuances issued in September of 2020 averaged ~5% compared to ~6% average for 2018 and 2019.These lower borrowing costs and ample capital for many banks in combination with lower share prices enhance the potential internal rate of return for share repurchases when compared to other strategic alternative uses of capital.4) Enhancing Shareholder Value and Liquidity Board members and management teams face the strategic decision of allocating capital in a way that creates value for shareholders.Potential options include growing the balance sheet organically or through acquisition (perhaps a whole bank or branch), payment of dividends, or a stock repurchase program.While M&A has been a constant theme, activity has slowed during the COVID-19 pandemic and Bank Director’s 2021 Bank M&A Survey noted that only ~33% say their institution is likely to purchase a bank by the end of 2021, which was down from the prior year’s survey (at ~44%).Key challenges to M&A in the current environment include conducting due diligence and evaluating a seller’s loan portfolio in light of COVID-19 impacts and economic uncertainty. Organic loan growth expectations have also been muted for many banks in light of the economic slowdown resulting from COVID-19.With organic and acquisitive balance sheet growth appearing less attractive for many banks in the current environment, dividends and share repurchases have climbed up the strategic option list for many banks.A share repurchase program can have the added benefit of enhancing liquidity and marketability of illiquid shares, which potentially enhances the valuation of a minority interest in the bank’s stock.ConclusionIf your bank’s board does implement a share repurchase program, it is critical for the board to set the purchase price based upon a reasonable valuation of the shares.While ~5,000 banks exist, the industry is very diverse and differences exist in financial performance, risk appetite, growth trajectory, and future performance/outlook in light of the shifting landscape.Valuations should understand the common issues faced by all banks – such as the interest rate environment, credit risk, or technological trends – but also the entity-specific factors bearing on financial performance, risk, and growth that lead to the differentiation in value observed in both the public and M&A markets.At Mercer Capital, valuations are more than a mere quantitative exercise. Integrating a bank’s growth prospects and risk characteristics into a valuation analysis requires understanding the bank’s history, business plans, market opportunities, response to emerging technological issues, staff experience, and the like. For those banks considering a share repurchase program, Mercer Capital has the experience to provide an independent valuation of the stock that can serve to assist the Board in setting the purchase price for the share repurchase program. Originally appeared in Mercer Capital’s Bank Watch, November 2020.
Measuring Up: Evaluating Your Auto Dealership Against Benchmark Metrics
Measuring Up: Evaluating Your Auto Dealership Against Benchmark Metrics
In a strange year of oddities, 2020 has all of us constantly evaluating life’s basic truths. Market conditions vary drastically across all industries and even geographically within the same industry due to local government restrictions. It’s critical for auto dealers to continually analyze all aspects of their business and be ready to capitalize on industry trends. We previously discussed the use of the NADA dealership profiles as a useful tool to examine timely monthly data based on averages or dealership type. Three specific metrics in the data have reached their highest level since the data was originally published in 2012: new vehicle retail gross profit per unit, used vehicle retail gross profit per unit, and used-to-new vehicle unit ratio.Retail Gross Profit Per New VehicleThis metric considers numerous factors. The numerator is gross profit achieved on the retail sale of new vehicles and is measured by the retail selling price less the cost paid to the manufacturer for the dealership to acquire the vehicle. Industry professionals also often refer to this metric as "front-end margin" meaning front of the showroom and not including elements of fixed operations. The denominator is the total number of vehicles retailed, or new vehicles sold less fleet sales which, as we’ll discuss in a future post, is subject to different operating environments. Over time, auto dealers’ new vehicle gross margins have been compressed as a percentage of retail sales price as consumers have become more knowledgeable about manufacturer costs and sticker prices in the information age. Dealerships aim to create long-term value by placing more new vehicle units on the road in hopes of the continuing service revenue that results from miles driven. These fixed operations tend to be higher margin, which aids the overall gross margin of the dealership. Though as noted above, this is not captured in new vehicle gross margin.As of October 2020, retail gross profit per new vehicle or new vehicle gross profit per unit ("GPU") climbed to $2,355 for the average dealerships as defined by NADA. This eclipses a previous high of $2,226 achieved in 2012. The year-to-date figure represents a nearly $280/unit increase over the average figure of $2,076 from 2012 through 2019. The chart below displays the annual new vehicle gross margin from 2012 through the current year-to-date.Retail Gross Profit Per Used VehicleLike new vehicle GPU, this metric refers to the gross margin achieved on the retail sale of a used vehicle and is measured by the retail selling price less the cost paid to acquire the vehicle divided by total units retailed. Similar to the new vehicles retailed which excludes fleet sales, it should be noted that this metric refers to retail sales only and does not include used vehicles for wholesale. Like its new vehicle gross profit counterpart, this metric has also climbed to its highest point in the observed period, currently at $2,678 per unit. We have previously written about several factors driving this metric including the heightened performance of the used vehicle market in the pandemic due to production shortages and shipment delays for new vehicles as manufacturers have experienced partial shutdowns. Low supply leads to higher prices, and dealers have been able to capture their share of this margin. The year-to-date figure represents a nearly $300/unit increase over the average figure of $2,386 from 2012 through 2019. With rising profitability over lower volumes, it’s clear why this figure is reaching all-time highs. The chart below displays the annual used vehicle gross margin from 2012 through the current year-to-date.Used-to-New Vehicle Unit RatioWith near-record levels of gross profit per new and used vehicles, how has that affected the product mix of vehicles sold by dealerships? The used-to-new vehicle unit ratio measures the amount of used retail units divided by new retail units. This ratio or product mix held fairly stable from 2012 through 2018 ranging from approximately 75% - 80%. Over the last year and a half, this ratio has climbed to 84.8% at the end of 2019 and peaked at 96.3% for October 2020. Used vehicles have become more profitable and have been more available to dealers at times in 2020. This ratio has reached an almost 1:1 relationship. The figure below displays the annual used-to-new vehicle unit ratio from 2012 through the current year-to-date. There are elements of both supply and demand in this figure. As noted in the previous charts, dealers earn more gross profit per used vehicle retailed than new vehicles. That means dealers get more bang for their buck when the used-to-new ratio approaches 1:1. However, customers are historically attracted to franchised dealerships because they want a specific make or model. With the reduction in new vehicle supply, it appears dealers have effectively pivoted their customers from new vehicles to used vehicles rather than losing the sale when their preferred option isn’t in stock. Another factor is likely in play, however. While supply is shifting towards used, demand is as well. With spikes in unemployment this year and the uncertainty surrounding job security for many, consumers are less likely to be able to afford the higher sticker prices of new vehicles, substituting to used as a more reasonable alternative.Potential Impacts and ConclusionHow is your dealership measuring up to these metrics and what impact could they have on the value of your dealership? As always, comparison with industry data should be viewed with some caution as it may not pertain directly to your dealership or the economic conditions experienced in your area. Nonetheless, the levels of these three metrics reflect the auto dealer industry’s ability to adapt to the challenges of 2020.The more important question for these metrics and for the valuation of your dealership, is how sustainable are these metrics for the long-term? The historical graphical information for each suggests that these figures will revert back to previous levels at some point. A majority of our projects for litigation and corporate valuations involve evaluating the expected annual earnings of the dealership for the future. Often, we examine these various metrics and the overall profitability and performance of the dealership over a longer historical period of time than just the latest year to determine the sustainability and future expectation. Just like dealers wouldn’t want to sell their business after a down year, valuations can become too lofty if an outlier year is effectively forecasted as the new normal.For an understanding of how your dealership is performing along with an indication of what your dealership is worth, contact a professional at Mercer Capital to perform a valuation or analysis.
Fraudulent Conveyance and Solvency Opinions
Fraudulent Conveyance and Solvency Opinions
The Business Judgment Rule, an English case law doctrine followed in the U.S., Australia and Canada, provides directors with great latitude in running the affairs of a corporation, provided directors do not breach their fiduciary duties to act in good faith, loyalty and care. However, there are instances when state law prohibits certain actions, including the fraudulent transfer of assets that would leave a company insolvent.
Premise of Value: Why It Is a Critical Aspect of Business Continuity and Financial Restructuring
Premise of Value: Why It Is a Critical Aspect of Business Continuity and Financial Restructuring
The conventions for defining value may never be more important than when making decisions related to business continuity and financial restructuring.  Countless clients have demonstrated a sense of confusion regarding the various descriptors of value used in valuation settings.  More than a few valuation stakeholders have mused that the value of anything (a business or an asset as the case may be) should be an absolute numerical expression and unambiguous in meaning.  Unfortunately for those seeking simplicity in a trying time, the conditional cliché “it depends” is critical when defining value for the assessment of bankruptcy decisions and workout financing.  The elements that underpin the Premise of Value provide a convenient base for introducing some of the vocabulary used in the bankruptcy and restructuring environment.  Gaining a thorough familiarity with the Premise of Value provides a cornerstone for understanding the financial considerations employed in valuing business assets and evaluating financial options. Defining value is a science of its own and can be subject to debate based on facts and circumstances.  With respect to business enterprises and assets, as well as business ownership interests, there are numerous defining elements of value.  These elements generally include the Standard of Value, the Level of Value, and the Premise of Value.  More confusing is that real property appraisers, machinery & equipment appraisers and corporate valuation advisors may not use the same value-defining nomenclature and may have varied meanings for similar vocabulary.  When the question of business value or asset value arises, the purpose of the valuation, the venue or jurisdiction in which value is being determined and numerous other facts and circumstances have a bearing on the defining elements of value. Everyone has seen the “inventory liquidation sale” sign or the “going out of business” sign in the shop window.  For the merchant and the merchant’s capital providers, the ramifications of how assets are monetized for the purposes of optimizing returns on and of capital is a key focus of the valuation methods employed in the restructuring and bankruptcy environment.  The international glossary of business valuation terms defines the Premise of Value and its components as follows: Premise of Value - an assumption regarding the most likely set of transactional circumstances that may be applicable to the subject valuation; for example, Going Concern, liquidationGoing Concern Value - the value of a business enterprise that is expected to continue to operate into the future. The intangible elements of Going Concern Value result from factors such as having a trained work force, an operational plant, and the necessary licenses, systems, and procedures in place.Liquidation Value - the net amount that would be realized if the business is terminated and the assets are sold piecemeal. Liquidation can be either “orderly” or “forced.” Orderly Liquidation Value - liquidation value at which the asset or assets are sold over a reasonable period of time to maximize proceeds received.Forced Liquidation Value - liquidation value, at which the asset or assets are sold as quickly as possible, such as at an auction The Premise of Value is a swing consideration for distressed businesses and their lenders.  For businesses in financial distress, achieving a return on capital shifts to the priority of asset protection and capital value preservation via a deliberate plan to mitigate downside exposures.  In most situations where a business is dealing with an existential financial threat, the preference for the business is to remain a Going Concern (at least initially), whereby the business continues to operate as a re-postured version of its former self.  In the context of bankruptcies and/or restructurings, the business that remains a Going Concern is referred to as the Debtor in Possession (DIP). DIPs remain a Going Concern using the protection of Chapter 11 bankruptcy to achieve a fresh start where their financial obligations are restructured through modification and/or specialized refinancing.  Chapter 11 involves a detailed plan of reorganization, which may be administered by a trustee and is ultimately governed under the specialized legal oversight of the courts.  Reorganization under Chapter 11 is the preferred first step for most operating enterprises whose business assets are purpose?specific and for which the break-up value of the assets would be economically punitive to capital investors.  Intuitive to the Going Concern premise are valuation methods and analyses that study potential business outcomes using detailed forecasts and the corresponding potential of the resulting cash flows to service the necessary financing to achieve the outcome.  One valuation discipline among numerous possibilities is the establishment and testing of a value threshold at which the capital returns are deemed adequate to their respective providers (e.g. an IRR analysis) based on the risks incurred.  If remaining a Going Concern delivers an acceptable rate of return under a plan of reorganization, then liquidation might be avoided or forestalled. The alternative to remaining a Going Concern involves the process of liquidation.  In bankruptcy terms, a business entity files for Chapter 7 and begins the cessation of business operations and seeks a sale of assets to re-pay creditors based the creditors’ respective position in the capital stack.  The “liquidation” premise is generally a value-compromising proposition for the bankruptcy stakeholders with the economic consequences are scaled to whether the liquidation is achieved in an orderly process or a forced process. Modern, global economies and increasingly technology inspired business models have resulted in a certain amount of disruption, the consequences of which often compromise the value of purpose-specific business assets in obsoleting or excess-capacity industries (e.g. coal in the face of growing energy alternatives and concerns for climate change).  Assets that have productive capacity are typically sold in an orderly market and may achieve a value commensurate with the capital asset expenditures expectations of industry market participants.  Real property assets and operating assets that can be successfully transitioned or re-purposed are often liquidated in an orderly fashion to maximize value.  Specialized assets and/or assets with inferior productive capacity or which are positioned in unfavorable circumstances likely lack the ability to attract buyers due to the deficiencies and/or inefficiencies of relevant markets.  Accordingly, the time value of money and the demands of the most senior creditors may suggest or dictate that a forced liquidation sooner is more favorable than a deferred outcome. Most restructuring and bankruptcies involve a total rationalization of operating assets and business resources.  For large integrated businesses, it often occurs that a combination of value premises applies to differing types of tangible and intangible assets based on the go-forward strategy of the business and the availability of markets in which to monetize assets.  For example, an initial liquidation may occur with respect to certain business operations and properties to create the resources necessary to achieve debt restructuring or DIP financing.  Accordingly, advisory engagements often take into consideration a wide range of options based on the timing of asset sales and the sustainability of continuing operations.  The Premise of Value is a quiet but critical defining element for assessing the collective value proposition associated with a plan of reorganization. Many bankruptcy advisory projects necessarily involve comparing the Going Concern value to Liquidation value.  Each premise involves an inherently speculative set of underlying models and assumptions about the performance of the business and/or the timing and exit value achieved for business assets.  And, each may be developed using a variety of scenarios with differing outcomes and event timing.  Setting aside the qualitative aspects of decision making, the Premise of Value with the best outcome is typically the path of pursuit based on the necessity for an objective criterion required under the legalities of the bankruptcy process and the priority claims of creditors. A fundamental understanding of the defining elements of value is critical to distressed businesses and their creditors.  Valuation advisors are required to clearly detail the defining elements of value employed in the determination of asset values and enterprise valuations.  The Premise of Value must be comprehended in the context of other defining elements of value.  If you have a question concerning the design and valuation of varying plans of reorganization or bankruptcy strategies, please contact Mercer Capital’s Transaction Advisory Group.
Subdued M&A Activity in the First Half of 2020
Subdued M&A Activity in the First Half of 2020
U.S. M&A activity slowed sharply in the second quarter due to the economic shock resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Activity – especially involving lower-to-middle market businesses – is expected to remain muted for the duration of 2020 and throughout 2021 unless more effective therapeutics and/or vaccines are developed that facilitate a more bullish sentiment than currently prevails.Although evidence is currently obscure, M&A markets appear to reflect wider bid-ask spreads among would-be sellers and buyers. Sellers are too fixated on what their business might have transacted for in 2019 while buyers expect to pay less as a result of declining performance and higher uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of the current economic malaise.Numerous industries lack sufficiently motivated strategic buyers willing to overlook concerns for their existing businesses to say nothing of the integration of new business. On the other hand, certain financial buyers seem to have returned to the market looking to deploy capital at attractive valuations when and where acquisition financing is available at reasonable terms and pricing.Would-be sellers face a dilemma: sell now for a seemingly compromised valuation; or wait for a recovery in market appetite that is not guaranteed to occur in the foreseeable future.Sellers are also faced with weighing the potential dilution of their future transaction proceeds if political regime/legislative change threatens the currently favorable tax environment.A modest consolation in the near-term for certain sellers may extend from the forgiveness of PPP loans under the CARES Act.As an aside from the current topical focus, sellers are advised to study the requirements and documentation for PPP forgiveness under change of control transaction events.We believe that in the current environment, contingent payments (e.g., earnouts and/or clawbacks) and seller financing will be employed to a greater extent than in the past in order to bridge a widening bid ask gap in deal value.Contingent deal consideration is typically structured such that a portion of transaction consideration is contingent upon the buyer’s achievement of specified post-transaction performance thresholds.The current environment requires careful seller scrutiny of such terms.When reasonably structured and negotiated, contingent consideration results in a symmetrical risk for buyers and sellers.While the economics can vary, earnouts often provide an incremental tranche of deal value that reconciles to that debated 0.5x to perhaps 2.0x turn that comprises the typical bid-ask spread (usually EBITDA based).For the buyer, contingent consideration acts as an insurance policy to insulate against downside future performance. For the seller contingent consideration can deliver deal consideration over and above that at the closing table, thus facilitating upfront liquidity while allowing for potential upside versus a straight all-cash closing. Sellers are advised to be careful about their unwillingness to entertain contingent consideration in the current environment because doing so can be a signal to the buyer of the seller’s concerns about near-term performance (i.e., actions speak louder than words).As always, every transaction is unique, requiring careful assessment of contingent consideration for purposes of productive negotiation.In theory, sellers may have to provide more financing in the post-COVID environment in order to achieve acceptable terms and pricing. We use the qualifier “in theory” because the high yield and leverage loan markets that are an important source of acquisition financing improved sharply as the third quarter progressed with more capital being raised at tighter spreads than the second quarter.An additional concern that has slowed M&A activity is execution.Conducting due diligence during a pandemic is inherently difficult and fraught with its own complications.It is easy to imagine how due diligence would have ground to a complete halt in an era before electronic data rooms and Zoom Video meetings. Nonetheless, travel prohibitions and social distancing protocols have stymied due diligence as most buyers require site visits and face-to-face meetings in order to consummate a purchase agreement.However, issuing a non-binding LOI remains quite doable, and some buyers are eager to secure the optionally and potential exclusivity obtained by an LOI submission.M&A in most industries is pro-cyclical. Challenges notwithstanding, M&A activity should gradually improve if the economy continues to do so and as buyers and sellers adjust expectations to the current environment and business earnings “normalize” in 2021 or 2022.
Trucking Industry Explosions and Implosions
Trucking Industry Explosions and Implosions
The trucking industry has recently been shaken by a series of large accident-related litigation verdicts, also known as nuclear verdicts.The definition of what constitutes a nuclear verdict can vary; however, the most common definition is verdicts in excess of $10 million.No matter how they are defined, nuclear verdicts are causing upheaval in the trucking industry.Trucking companies have historically only had to insure drivers for $1 million each, amplifying the effect of significantly larger verdicts.
Neiman Marcus: A Restructuring Case Study
Neiman Marcus: A Restructuring Case Study
Mercer Capital is a national valuation and financial/transaction advisory firm. The Neiman Marcus Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing raises multiple valuation questions:Fraudulent conveyance (asset stripping) and solvency related to pre-filing asset distributionsLiquidation vs going concern valueValue of the company once it emerges from Chapter 11Allocation of enterprise value to secured and unsecured creditorsFresh start accounting Neiman Marcus Group, Inc. (“Neiman Marcus” or “Company”) is a Dallas, Texas-based holding company that operates four retail brands: Neiman Marcus, Bergdorf Goodman, Last Call (clearance centers), and Horchow (home furnishings). Unlike other department store chains, such as JCPenney and Macys that cater to the mass market, Neiman Marcus’s target market is the top 2% of U.S. earners. Among the notable developments over the last 15 years were two private equity transactions that burdened the Company with a significant debt load and one well-timed acquisition. The debt and acquisition figured prominently in the May 7, 2020 bankruptcy filing in which the company sought to reorganize under Chapter 11 with the backing of most creditors.Iconic Luxury Retailer to Indebted MorassHistoryThe iconic Neiman Marcus department store was established in 1907 in Dallas. Over the ensuing decades, the Company prospered as oil wealth in Texas fueled demand for luxury goods. Neiman Marcus merged with Broadway-Hale Stores (later rechristened Carter Hawley Hale Stores, Inc.) in the late 1960s. Additional stores were opened outside of Texas in Atlanta, South Florida, and other wealthy enclaves around the U.S. except for New York where Bergdorf Goodman (acquired in the 1970s) operated two stores.In 1987, Neiman Marcus along with Bergdorf Goodman was partially spun out as a public company with the remaining shares spun in 1999.In 2005, the Company was acquired via a $5 billion LBO that was engineered by Texas Pacific Group and Warburg Pincus.  Once the economy rebounded sufficiently from the Great Financial Crisis, the PE-owners reportedly sought to exit via an IPO in 2013. However, the IPO never occurred. Instead, the Company was acquired for $6 billion by Ares Management and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (“CPPIB”).In 2014 Neiman Marcus acquired MyTheresa, a German luxury e-commerce retailer with annual revenues of $130 million, for $182 million of cash consideration. During 2018, the entity that held the shares of MyTheresa (MyT Holding Co.) was transferred via a series of dividends to the Neiman Marcus holding company directly controlled by Ares and CPPIB and thereby placed the interest out of the reach of Company creditors.Neiman Marcus filed an S-1 in 2015 in anticipation of becoming a public company again; however, the registration statement was withdrawn due to weak investor demand.Although Neiman Marcus’ common shares had not been publicly traded since 2005, the Company filed with the SEC because its debt was registered. During June 2019, the Company deregistered upon an exchange of new notes and preferred equity for the registered notes. S&P described the restructuring as a selective default because debt investors received less than promised with the original securities.Review of FinancialsFigure 1 below presents a recent summary of the company’s financial performance and position one year prior to the bankruptcy filing. Of note is the extremely high debt burden that equated to 12.4x earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization (“EBITDA”) for the last twelve months (“LTM”) ended April 27, 2019. Although definitions vary by industry, federal banking regulators consider a company to be “highly levered” if debt exceeds EBITDA by 6x.Moody’s downgraded the Company’s corporate credit rating to B3 from B2 in October 2013 with the acquisition by Ares and CPPIB. Moody’s also established an initial rating of Caa2 for unsecured notes issued to partially finance the acquisition. By the time the notes were deregistered, Moody’s had reduced the corporate rating to Caa3 and the notes to Ca.Moody’s defines Caa as obligations that “are judged to be of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk,” and Ca as obligations that are “highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery in principal and interest.” Neiman Marcus has struggled with a high debt load since the first LBO in 2005, which has been magnified by the disruptive impact that online retailing has had on department stores.  EBITDA declined from $665 million in FY2015 to $400 million in the LTM period ended April 27, 2019; the EBITDA margin declined by over a third from 13.1% to 8.5%, over the same time. By April 2019, debt equated to 12.4x LTM EBITDA and covered interest expense by 1.2x. By way of reference, the debt/EBITDA and EBITDA/interest ratios for Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) for the fiscal year ended March 30, 2019, were 1.0x and 47.1x, while the respective ratios for Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS) were 1.2x and 9.9x for the fiscal year ended February 2, 2019. At the time of bankruptcy, Neiman Marcus generated about one-third of its sales (about $1.5 billion) online. MyTheresa generated approximately $500 million of this up from $238 million in 1Q17 when certain subsidiaries that held MyTheresa were designated “unrestricted subsidiaries” by the Company. While MyTheresa’s sales increased, the legacy department store business declined as the Company struggled to connect with younger affluent customers who favored online start-up boutiques and had little inclination to shop in a department store. As shown in the chart below, ecommerce sales as a portion of total retail sales have doubled over the last five years to about 12% in 2019. The move to work from home (“WFH”) and social distancing practices born of COVID-19 in early 2020 have accelerated the trend such that the pre-COVID-19 projection of e-commerce sales rising to 15% by 2020 will likely prove to be significantly conservative. Bankruptcy FilingNeiman Marcus filed on May 7, 2020 for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The COVID-19 induced shutdown of the economy was the final nail in the coffin, which forced major furloughs and the closing of its stores in accordance with various local shelter-in-place regulations.  Other recent retail bankruptcies include Lord & Taylor, Men’s Warehouse, Ann Taylor, Brooks Brothers, Lucky Brands, J. Crew with many more expected to file.The initial plan called for creditors to convert $4 billion of $5 billion of debt into equity. The plan does not provide for mass store closures or asset sales, although the Last Call clearance stores will close.As noted, the bankruptcy filing follows a restructuring in June 2019 that entailed:An exchange of all but $137 million of $960 million of 8.0% cash pay and $656 million of 8.75%/9.50% PIK Toggle unsecured notes for $1.2 billion of (i) 8.0% and 8.75% third lien Company notes and (ii) $250 million of Series A preferred equity in MyT Holding Co., a US-based entity that holds the German corporate entity that operates MyTheresa;The issuance of $550 million of new second-lien 6% cash pay/8.0% PIK notes due 2024 with a limited senior secured claim of $200 million from MyT Holding Co. and other MyT affiliates;A partial paydown of the first-lien term loan facility at par with the proceeds of the second lien notes; andAn exchange for the remaining $2.2 billion first-lien credit facility with a new facility and an extension of the maturity to October 2023. The restructuring did not (apparently) materially impact the Company’s $900 million asset-based credit facility of which $455 million was drawn as of April 2019; or the first lien $125 million debentures due in 2028. As shown in Figure 4, market participants assigned little value to the $1.2 billion of third lien notes that were trading for around 8% of par when the bankruptcy filing occurred and 6% of par in late August 2020. The binding Restructuring Support Agreement (“RSA”), dated May 7, 2020, included commitments from holders of 99% of the Company’s term loans, 100% of the second line notes, 70% of the third line notes, and 78% of the residual unsecured debentures to equitize their debt.  Also, certain creditors agreed to backstop $675 million in debtor-in-possession (“DIP”) financing and to provide $750 million of exit financing which would be used to refinance the DIP facility and provide incremental liquidity. DIP financing is often critical to maintain operations during the bankruptcy process when the company has little cash on hand. DIP financing is typically secured by the assets of the company and can rank above the payment rights of existing secured lenders. DIPs often take the form of an asset-based loan, where the amount a company borrows is based on the liquidation value of the inventory, assuring that if the company is unable to restructure, the loan can be repaid from the liquidation of the retailer’s assets.Bankruptcy Path: Chapter 7 vs. Chapter 11Federal law governs the bankruptcy process. Broadly, a company will either reorganize under Chapter 11 or liquidate under Chapter 7.A Chapter 7 filing typically is made when a business has an exceedingly large debt combined with underlying operations that have deteriorated such that a reorganized business has little value. Under Chapter 7, the company stops all operations. A U.S. bankruptcy court will appoint a trustee to oversee the liquidation of assets with the proceeds used to pay creditors after legal and administrative costs are covered. Unresolved debts are then “discharged”, and the corporate entity is dissolved.Under Chapter 11, the business continues to operate, often with the same management and board who will exert some control over the process as “debtor in possession” operators. Once a Chapter 11 filing occurs, the debtor must obtain approval from the bankruptcy court for most decisions related to asset sales, financings, and the like.Most public companies and substantive private ones such as Neiman Marcus file under Chapter 11.  If successful, the company emerges with a manageable debt load and new owners. If unsuccessful, then creditors will move to have the petition dismissed or convert to Chapter 7 to liquidate.Most Chapter 11 filings are voluntary, but sometimes creditors can force an involuntary filing. Normally, a debtor has four months after filing to propose a reorganization plan. Once the exclusivity period ends creditors can propose a competing plan.Usually, the debtor continues to operate the business; however, sometimes the bankruptcy court will appoint a trustee to oversee the business if the court finds cause to do so related to fraud, perceived mismanagement and other forms of malfeasance.The U.S. Trustee, the bankruptcy arm of the Justice Department, will appoint one or more committees to represent the interests of the creditors and stockholders in working with the company to develop a plan of reorganization. The trustee usually appoints the following:The “official committee of unsecured creditors”Other creditors committee representing a distinct class of creditors such as secured creditors or subordinated bond holders; andStockholders committee. Once an agreement is reached it must be confirmed by the court in accordance with the Bankruptcy Code before it can be implemented. Even if creditors (and sometimes stockholders) vote to reject the plan, the court can disregard the vote and confirm the plan if it believes the parties are treated fairly. Neiman Marcus pursued a “prepackaged” or “prepack” Chapter 11 in which the company obtained support of over two-thirds of its creditors to reorganize before filing. Under the plan, the Company would eliminate about $4 billion of $5.5 billion of debt. The creditors also committed a $675 million DIP facility that will be replaced with a $750 million facility once the plan is confirmed by the court.The Role of Valuation in BankruptcyValuation issues are interwound in bankruptcy proceedings, especially in Chapter 11 filings when a company seeks to reorganize. Creditors and the debtor will hire legal and financial advisors to develop a reorganization plan that maximizes value and produces a reorganized company that has a reasonable likelihood of producing sufficient cash flows to cover its obligations.There are typically three valuation considerations for companies restructuring through Chapter 11 Bankruptcy.Companies must prove that a Chapter 11 Restructuring is in the “best interest” of its stakeholders;A cash flow test must prove that post-reorganization the debtor will be able to fund obligations; and,“Fresh Start Accounting” must be adopted in which the balance sheet is restated to fair value. Sometimes as is the case with Neiman Marcus there is a fourth valuation-related issue that deals with certain transactions that may render a company insolvent. Fraudulent ConveyanceA side story to Neiman Marcus relates to the 2018 transaction in which the shares of MyTheresa were transferred in 2018 to bankruptcy-remote affiliates of PE owners Ares and CPPIB. Under U.S. bankruptcy law, transferring assets from an insolvent company is a fraudulent transaction.During 2017, Neiman Marcus publicly declared the subsidiaries that held the shares were “unrestricted subsidiaries.” Once the distribution occurred in September 2018, creditors litigated the transaction. All but one (Marble Ridge) settled in 2019 as part of the previously described debt restructuring.Since the bankruptcy filing occurred, the unsecured creditors commissioned a valuation expert to review the transaction to determine whether Neiman Marcus was solvent as of the declaration date, immediately prior to the distribution and after the distribution. As shown in Figure 5, the creditors’ expert derived a negative equity value on all dates. If the court accepted the position, then presumably Ares and CPPIB would be liable for fraudulent conveyance.At the time the distribution occurred, Neiman Marcus put forth an enterprise valuation of $7 billion and relied upon the opinion of two national law firms that it was within its rights to execute the transaction. Since filing, the PE owners have commissioned one or more valuation experts whose opinion has not been disclosed. On July 31, 2020, the committee of unsecured creditors and the Company reached a settlement related to the fraudulent conveyance claims arising from the MyTheresa transaction. Ares and CPPIB agreed to contribute 140 million MyTheresa Series B preferred shares, which represent 56% of the B class shares, to a trust for the benefit of the unsecured creditors. The Company also agreed to contribute $10 million cash to the trust. A range of value for the series B shares of $0 to $275 million was assigned in a revised disclosure statement filed with the bankruptcy court. Marble Ridge, which served on the committee, did not view the settlement as sufficient as was the case in 2019 when it did not participate in the note exchange as part of the 2018 litigation settlement. During August, it became known that Marble Ridge founder Dan Kamensky pressured investment bank Jeffrey’s not to make a bid for the shares that were to be placed in a trust because it planned to bid, too (reportedly 20 cents per share compared to 30 cents or higher by Jeffrey’s). The anti-competitive action was alleged to have cost creditors upwards of $50 million. Marble Ridge subsequently resigned from the creditors committee and announced plans to close the fund. Kamensky was arrested on September 7th and charged with securities fraud, extortion, wire fraud, extortion, and obstruction of justice, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York. Best Interest TestA best interest test must show that the reorganization value is higher than the liquidation value of the company, to ensure that the creditors in Chapter 11 receive at least as much under the restructuring plan as they would in a Chapter 7 liquidation. In the case of Neiman Marcus, the liquidation vs. reorganization valuation analysis was a formality because most unsecured creditors and the Company agreed to a prepackaged plan subject to resolution of such items as the MyTheresa shares. Nonetheless, we summarize both for illustration purposes. Liquidation AnalysisA rough calculation of Neiman Marcus’ liquidation value is included below, based on balance sheet data from April 2019 as these are the most current figures available. Substantial value in a liquidation analysis depends upon what an investor would be willing to pay for the rights to the Neiman Marcus name as well as its customer lists and proprietary IP code. The recovery ratio applied to Neiman Marcus’ inventory is higher than expected recovery ratios across the broader apparel industry since much of Neiman’s inventory is designer goods. Nonetheless, the analysis implies creditors would face a significant haircut in a Chapter 7 liquidation scenario. Reorganization (Going Concern) AnalysisThe reorganization value represents the value of the company once it has emerged as a going concern from Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Typically, the analysis will develop a range of value based upon (i) Discounted Cash Flow (“DCF”) Method; (ii) Guideline Public Company Method; and (iii) Guideline Transaction Method.Both guideline methods develop public company and M&A “comps” to derive representative multiples to apply to the subject company’s earnings and cash flow.  Market participants tend to focus on enterprise value (market value of equity and debt net of cash) in relation to EBITDA. Secondary multiples include enterprise value in relation to EBIT, EBIT less ongoing Capex, and revenues.As it relates to Neiman Marcus, we note that Lazard Freres & Co. (“Lazard”) as financial advisor focused on adjusted EBITDA for the LTM period ended February 1, 2020 and the projected 12 months ended February 1, 2022. In doing so, Lazard looked past 2020 and 2021 as excessively abnormal years due to the COVID19 induced recession. Our observation is that this treatment (for now) is largely consistent with how many market participants are treating various earning power measures in industries that were severely impacted by the downturn.A DCF analysis for Neiman Marcus that assumes the Company emerges from bankruptcy in the fall of 2020 will incorporate the impact of the adverse economy as reflected in presumably subpar operating performance in the first year or two of the projections. More generally, the DCF method involves three key inputs: the forecast of expected future cash flows, terminal value, and discount rate.Forecast of Expected Future Cash Flows: Valuation practitioners typically develop cash flow forecasts for specific periods of time, ranging anywhere from three to ten years, or as many periods as necessary until a stable cash flow stream can be realized. Key elements of the forecast include projected revenue growth, gross margins, operating costs, and working capital and capital expenditure requirements. Data from other publicly traded companies within similar lines of business can serve as good reference points for the evaluation of each element in the forecast.Terminal Value: The terminal value represents all cash flow values outside of the discrete forecast period. This value is calculated through capitalizing cash-flow at the end of the forecast period, based on expectations of long-term cash flow growth rate and discount rate. Alternatively, a terminal value can be determined through the application of projected or current market multiples.Discount Rate: The discount rate is essential in estimating the present value of forecasted cash flows. A proper discount rate is developed from assumptions about costs of equity and debt capital, and capital structure of the new entity. For costs of equity capital, a build-up method is used with long-term risk-free rate, equity premia, and other industry/company-specific factors as inputs. Cost of debt capital and new capital structure can be based on benchmark rates or comparable corporations. The discount rate should reflect the financial risks that come with the projected cash flows of the restructured entity. The sum of the present values of all forecasted cash flows indicates the enterprise value of the emerging company for a set of forecast assumptions. Reorganization value is the total sum of expected business enterprise value and proceeds from the sale or disposal of assets during the reorganization.Cash Flow TestThe second valuation hurdle Neiman Marcus will have to jump is a cash flow test. The cash flow test determines the feasibility of the reorganization plan and the solvency of future operations. Since a discounted cash flow analysis is typically used to determine reorganization value, the projected cash flows from this analysis are compared to future interest and principal payments due.Additionally, the cash flow test details the impact of cash flows on the balance sheet of the restructured entity, entailing modeling changes in the asset base and in the debt obligations of and equity interests in the company. Therefore, the DCF valuation and cash flow tests go together because the amount of debt that is converted to equity creates cash flow capacity to service the remaining debt. If the cash flow model suggests solvent operations for the foreseeable future, the reorganization plan is typically considered viable.Fresh-Start AccountingWhen emerging from bankruptcy in the case of going concern, fresh-start accounting could be required to allot a portion of the reorganization value to specific intangible assets. The fair value measurement of these assets requires the use of multi-period excess earnings method or other techniques of purchase price allocations.ConclusionNeiman Marcus plans to eliminate about $4 billion of over $5 billion of debt and $200 million of annual interest expense in a reorganization plan that was approved by U.S. bankruptcy judge David Jones in early September. The plan will transfer the bulk of ownership to the first lien creditors, including PIMCO, Davidson Kempner Capital Management and Sixth Street Partners. PIMCO will be the largest shareholder with three of seven board seats.Other creditors will receive, in effect, a few pennies to upwards of one-third of what they were owed depending in part on the value of MyTheresa Class B preferred shares that were contributed to a trust for the benefit of unsecured creditors. Also, the Company’s term loan lenders, second lien and third lien note holders waived their right to assert deficiency claims and thereby eliminated upwards of $3.3 billion of additional claims in the general unsecured claims pool (now limited to $340 to $435 million).Lazard estimated the value of the reorganized Company upon exit from bankruptcy to approximate $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion on an enterprise basis with the equity valued at $800 million to $1.3 billion.Creditors and the Company negotiated a plan that has presumably maximized (or nearly so) value to each creditor class based upon the priority of their claims. We are not privy to the analysis each class produced and how their views of the analyses, relative negotiating strength and the like drove the settlement.Ultimately, the performance of the reorganized Neiman Marcus will determine the eventual amount recovered by creditors to the extent shares are not sold immediately. Some creditors would be expected to sell the shares immediately, while others who have flexibility to hold equity interests and have a favorable view of the reorganized company’s prospects may wait to potentially realize a greater recovery.In Figure 9 we have constructed a waterfall analysis which we compare with the actual settlement. We assume a range of enterprise values based upon multiples of projected FY22 EBITDA, or $342 million, and compare the residual equity after each claimant class is settled to provide perspective on the creditors’ recovery.This waterfall implies that class 5 through 7 debt, which for our purposes here is more or less pari passu, should receive the bulk if not all of the equity given $2.4 billion of debt owed to the three classes. Because ~10% of the equity was allocated to subordinated creditors, the senior lenders may have been willing to cede some ownership in order to reach a settlement more quickly.Per the settlement, ~90% of the equity was allocated to the 2019 senior secured term loan (~$2.3 billion; 87.5%), 2013 residual senior secured loan ($13 million) and first lien debentures ($129 million; 2.8%).Recovery for the 2019 senior secured creditors was estimated in the Disclosure Statement to approximate 33% compared to about 19% for the first lien debentures.Interests in MyTheresa also impacted projected recoveries for the junior and unsecured creditors, a byproduct of the litigation to settle the fraudulent conveyance claims related to the 2018 transaction.The second lien noteholders ($606 million) would obtain (i) 1.0% equity interest; (ii) seven-year warrants to purchase up to 25% of the reorganized equity at an agreed upon strike price; (iii) participation rights in the exit loan and associated fees; and (iv) an economic interest in MyTheresa in the form of $200 million of 7.5% PIK notes.The disclosure statement indicates the recovery equates to less than 2% of what is owed to the second lien note holders, which appears to exclude whatever value is attributable to the PIK notes because 1% of the Newco equity would equate to $800 thousand to $1.3 million of value based upon a range of equity value of $800 million to $1.3 billion.1The third lien noteholders ($1.3 billion) would obtain (i) 8.5% equity interest; (ii) participation rights in the exit loan and associated fees; and (iii) a 50% economic and 49.9% voting interest in the common equity of MyTheresa.The disclosure statement indicates the recovery to be 5.6% of the claim, which also appears to exclude the value of the MyTheresa common shares if the equity interest is equal to $68 million to $110 million based upon an aggregate equity value of $800 million to $1.3 billion.The issuance of $200 million of PIK notes and transfer of 50% of the common equity interest in MyTheresa to the second and third lien noteholders appears to be a result of the 2019 debt restructuring and settlement of the 2018 litigation surrounding the 2018 transfer of MyTheresa to the parent company and out of the reach of creditors.The final wrinkle in the disputed MyTheresa saga involved an agreement reached in late July 2020 in which Ares and CPPIB agreed to allocate 140 million (56%) MyTheresa Series B preferred shares to a trust established for unsecured creditors. Neiman Marcus as debtor also agreed to contribute $10 million cash to the trust.At the time the settlement was announced in late July, the value attributed to the preferred shares was $162 million; however, the August 3 Disclosure Statement assigned a range of value of $0 to $275 million. Marble Ridge reportedly had planned to bid 20 cents per share to provide certain unsecured creditors (e.g. unpaid vendors) immediate liquidity before the fracas with Jeffrey’s occurred. Neiman Marcus emerged from Chapter 11 by September 30, 2020 in a streamlined process via the prepackaged negotiations that will leave the Company with significantly less debt in its capital structure.  As outlined in this article, valuation is an important factor in the bankruptcy process. 1 The issuance of $200 million of PIK notes and transfer of 50% of the common equity interest in MyTheresa to the second and third lien noteholders appears to be a result of the 2019 debt restructuring and settlement of the 2018 litigation surrounding the 2018 transfer of MyTheresa to the parent company and out of the reach of creditors. 2 The projected 1.4% recovery rate for the second lien notes apparently excludes the MyTheresa PIK notes, while the projected 5.6% recovery rate for the third lien notes likewise appears to exclude the 50% common equity interest in MyTheresa.
Standard of Value in Bankruptcy
Standard of Value in Bankruptcy
The determination of the appropriate “standard of value” when performing business valuations and other valuation related analyses for bankruptcy purposes is critical.  While a standard of value is often specified, it is frequently the case that the specific standard of value is not well defined in either the Bankruptcy Code, applicable state statutes, or in judicial guidance.  Further, the standard of value terminology used in valuations for bankruptcy purposes often differs from the terminology used for other (non-bankruptcy) purposes.General Standards of ValueTraditional business valuations (those for purposes other than bankruptcy) are typically performed using one of the three basic standards of value:  (1): fair market value, (2): fair value, or (3): investment value.  While some might argue that a fourth standard of value – intrinsic value – is available to business appraisers and should be included among the typical, standards of value, use of this standard of value is rarely mandated by valuation guidance, statues, or law.  Furthermore, intrinsic value (also referred to as fundamental value) is not as well defined as the other standards of value, and while mentioned in certain case law, such references rarely provide a specific definition of the standard.  As such, intrinsic value is not addressed in this article.Fair Market ValueThe most recognized and accepted standard of value in relation to business and securities valuation in the U.S. is fair market value.  Fair market value applies to nearly all federal and state income and corporate tax matters and is either the specified legal standard or guidepost of value for many other valuation purposes.  Additionally, alternative standards of value are also frequently equated to their functional equivalents under fair market value.  Although multiple definitions of fair market value exist, they are quite consistent and functionally almost identical.The definition established for fair market value in tax regulations by Treasury Regulation Section 20.2031-1(b) is as follows:The price at which the property would change hands between a willing buyer and a willing seller when the former is not under any compulsion to buy and the latter is not under any compulsion to sell, both parties having reasonable knowledge of relevant facts.A second definition of fair market value is available from the International Glossary of Business Valuation Terms as:[T]he price, expressed in terms of cash equivalents, at which property would change hands between a hypothetical willing and able buyer and a hypothetical willing and able seller, acting at arm’s length in an open and unrestricted market, when neither is under compulsion to buy or sell and when both have reasonable knowledge of the relevant facts.Yet a third definition of fair market value is provided within Section 3(18) (B) of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act wherein adequate consideration in the case of an asset for which there is no generally recognized market (e.g., stock of a closely held corporation) is defined as the fair market value of the asset as determined in good faith by the trustee or named fiduciary pursuant to the terms of the plan and in accordance with the regulations promulgated by the Secretary of Labor.  The term "fair market value" is defined in proposed section 2510.3-18(b) (2) (i) as follows:The price at which an asset would change hands between a willing buyer and a willing seller when the former is not under any compulsion to buy and the latter is not under any compulsion to sell, and both parties are able, as well as willing, to trade and are well-informed about the asset and the market for that asset.It is widely recognized that these definitions are in general agreement, particularly in regard to their common references to (i) willing buyers and sellers, (ii) lack of compulsion, and (iii) reasonable knowledge of relevant facts.  While International Glossary of Business Valuation Terms definition includes reference to (i) the hypothetical nature of the parties to the exchange, (ii) the arm’s length nature of the exchange, and (iii) an open and unrestricted market, it is widely held that these differences in the definitions are immaterial in most situations.  As such, while three commonly used definitions exist, fair market value is the most well and consistently understood of the standards of value.Fair ValueThe fair value standard of value is also commonly used by business appraisers.  Unlike fair market value, however, fair value’s different definitions are intentionally fashioned for different purposes.  Within one purpose (financial reporting), the application of fair value is quite consistent due to now well-established standards codifications issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”).  In the broader legal and financial environment, the definition and or application of fair value can vary significantly from one state to another.Within the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants’ (AICPA) Statements on Standards for Valuation Services (SSVS), fair value is described as having two commonly used, albeit distinctly different definitions.Financial ReportingFor financial reporting purposes, fair value is defined under the FASB’s Accounting Standards Codification (ASC) glossary as:the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date.This definition is further discussed in ASC 820 as the price being based upon a hypothetical transaction for the subject asset or liability at the measurement date, considered from the perspective of a market participant.  According to ASC 820, a market participant is: (i) an unrelated party, (ii) knowledgeable of the subject asset or liability, (iii) able to transact, and (iv) motivated but not compelled to transact.This standard of value and the definition for this standard of value is universally used for financial accounting purposes within the U.S.  Although quite similar to the definitions for fair market value in many respects, the definition of fair value for financial reporting purposes has distinct differences from the definitions for fair market value – particularly in the application of the market participant perspective.State Legal Matters (Non-Bankruptcy)In many states, fair value is the standard of value applicable by statute in regard to cases involving dissenting shareholder rights and is frequently used state minority oppression cases.[1]  However, in these settings there may be no single definition or understanding of the fair value standard of value.  Alternatively, or as an adjunct to ambiguous state statues, legal precedent may provide the primary guidance for defining fair value.Investment ValueInvestment value is much less commonly utilized by valuation practitioners than fair market value, or fair value.  Unlike fair market value and fair value, investment value is rarely a required standard of value.  It is most often used to support merger and acquisitions, or other business transaction related matters.While there is more than one definition of investment value, they are generally considered to be materially similar in meaning, albeit in part due to the definitions’ intentional lack of specificity.The International Glossary of Business Valuation Terms defines investment value as:[T]he value to a particular investor based on individual investment requirements and expectations.Note the intentional generalities and lack of constraints relative to the definitions of fair market value and the definition of fair value in regard to financial reporting matters.Similarly, albeit somewhat longer, in real estate terminology investment value is defined as:The specific value of an investment to a particular investor or class of investors based on individual investment requirement; distinguished from market value, which is impersonal and detached.[2]These two definitions of investment value are generally considered to be equivalent.Standards of Value in BankruptcyAs with fair value, the legal terminology describing the applicable standard of value for bankruptcy is not clearly defined in the U. S. Bankruptcy Code, or in applicable state statutes.[3]  Unlike standards of value outside of bankruptcy, standards of value within bankruptcy are numerous, lacking in clarity, and inconsistent.  Among the standards of value for bankruptcy purposes referenced in the Forensic & Valuation Services Practice Aid - Providing Bankruptcy and Reorganization Services, 2nd Edition Volume 2 — Valuation in Bankruptcy (F&VSPA) are:[4]Fair valuationReasonably equivalent valueIndubitable equivalentPresent fair salable valueFair consideration The sources for these standards of value include the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, The Uniform Fraudulent Transfer Act (UFTA), and The Uniform Fraudulent Conveyance Act (UFCA).  Guidance as to the definitions for these terms, or the application of the terms, are minimal, and often nonexistent, within the Code, the UFTA, or the UFCA.  Guidance as available within the Code, the UFTA, or the UFCA is as follows:[5]Fair ValuationBankruptcy Code — Fair ValuationSection 101(32) of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code defines insolvency as a:...financial condition such that the sum of such entity’s debt is greater than all of such property, at a fair valuation...Fair valuation in this context is generally interpreted by bankruptcy case law, albeit not specifically defined, as fair market value.[6]UFTA — Fair ValuationWithin the UFTA, Section 2(a) indicates, "A debtor is insolvent if the sum of the debtor’s debts is greater than all of the debtor’s assets, at a fair valuation."  The UFTA provides no definition of fair valuation, however, fair valuation is frequently analyzed similarly to fair market value when evaluating solvency.[7]Reasonably Equivalent ValueBankruptcy Code — Reasonably Equivalent ValueSection 548 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code explains that a fraudulent transfer has occurred if a debtor has "received less than a reasonably equivalent value in exchange for such transfer or obligation." No definition of reasonably equivalent value is provided, although the Code does define value to mean "property, or satisfaction or securing of a present or antecedent debt of the debtor, but does not include an unperformed promise to furnish support to the debtor or to a relative of the debtor."[8]The F&VSPA indicates that the courts have historically considered fair market value exchanged when evaluating reasonably equivalent value.[9]  However, the U.S. Supreme Court has noted that, reasonably equivalent value is not always evaluated against a fair market value benchmark.[10]UFTA — Reasonably Equivalent ValueWhen evaluating whether a transfer was fraudulent to present and future creditors the UFTA considers whether "a reasonably equivalent value [was] exchange[d] for the transfer or obligation."[11]  The fair market value of the assets or debt exchanged is commonly considered. However, as previously referenced in regard to the U.S. Supreme Court, reasonably equivalent value is not always evaluated against a fair market value benchmark.[12]Indubitable EquivalentBankruptcy Code — Indubitable EquivalentThe U.S. Bankruptcy Code mandates that a Chapter 11 plan must be fair and equitable to all holders of secured claims.  In circumstances where the debtor’s reorganization plan is accepted over the objections of a secured creditor, the court must ensure the plan provides that secured creditors receive the indubitable equivalent of their respective claims.[13]Fair Saleable ValueUFCA — Present Fair Saleable ValueSection 2(1) of the UFCA includes a reference to the present fair saleable value of assets in considering insolvency.  Some jurisdictions have interpreted present fair saleable value to be similar to fair market value, although other jurisdictions have taken a position whereby the present fair saleable value standard imposes a reduced marketing period.[14]Fair ConsiderationUFCA — Fair ConsiderationUFCA’s Section 3 indicates that fair consideration is given for property or an obligationWhen in exchange for such property, or obligation, as a fair equivalent therefore, and in good faith, property is conveyed or an antecedent debt is satisfied, orWhen such property or obligation is received in good faith to secure a present advance or antecedent debt in amount not disproportionately small as compared with the value of the property or obligation obtained. Therefore, fair consideration is characterized as a good faith transfer whereby the debtor receives reasonably equivalent value.[15]  The fair market values exchanged are commonly used when evaluating fair consideration in states that have adopted the UFCA, as they are under the Bankruptcy Code.[16]SummaryThere is simply no clear standard of value that can be universally relied upon in the context of bankruptcy proceedings.  Standard of value terminology, definitions, and guidance within the bankruptcy realm are significantly lacking in comparison to that available to business appraisers engaged in tax and financial reporting related matters.  In the absence of clear standard of value definitions and guidance, precedent must often be relied upon.  It is therefore crucial in bankruptcy endeavors that a business appraiser have knowledge of these standard of value considerations and work closely with experienced bankruptcy attorneys in order to apply the correct standard of value to best serve their client.[1] Valuing a Business, 5th edition (Pratt, Reilly, Schweihs), p. 45 [2] The Appraisal of Real Estate, 11th edition (Chicago Appraisal Institute, 1996), p. 638. [3] Forensic & Valuation Services Practice Aid - Providing Bankruptcy and Reorganization Services, 2nd Edition Volume 2 — Valuation in Bankruptcy [4]Ibid. [5]Ibid.[6] See Andrew Johnson Properties, Inc., CCD Dec. ¶ 65, 254 (D.C. Tenn. 1974); Briden v. Foley, 776 F.2d 379, 382 (1st Cir. 1985) [7] F&VSPA [8] F&VSPA [9] Barber v. Golden Seed Co., 129 F.3d 382, 387 (7th Cir. 1997) [10] BFP v. Resolution Trust Corp., 511 U.S. 531, 548 (1994). [11] UFTA Sections 4(a)(2) and 5(a). [12] BFP v. Resolution Trust Corp., 511 U.S. 531, 548 (1994). [13] USC 1129(b)(2)(A). [14] F&VSPA [15] HBE Leasing Corp. v. Frank, 48 F.3d 623, 633 (2d Cir. 1994). [16] F&VSPA
Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry – 2020 Edition
Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry – 2020 Edition

Every year the American Transportation Research Institute (“ATRI”) publishes its report, Critical Issues in the Trucking Industry. A key piece of this annual report is a survey of key risk factors in the industry. While some of the risks of 2020 were not anticipated at the beginning of the year, some of the industry’s largest risk factors remain major concerns.
The Importance of the Valuation Date in Divorce (1)
The Importance of the Valuation Date in Divorce
During the divorce process, a listing of assets and liabilities, often referred to as a marital balance sheet or marital estate, is established for the purpose of dividing assets between the divorcing parties. Some assets are easily valued, such as a brokerage account or retirement, which hold marketable securities with readily available prices. Other assets, such as a business or ownership interest in a business, are not as easily valued and require the expertise of a business appraiser. Upon retaining a valuation or financial expert, together with the family law attorney, it is important to understand and agree upon certain factors that set forth a baseline for the valuation. These may be state specific, such as case precedent and state statute. One of these considerations is the valuation date, which differs from state to state.Valuation Date DefinedThe valuation date represents the point in time at which the business, or business interest(s), is being valued. The majority of states have adopted the use of a current date, usually as close as possible to mediation or trial date. Other states use date of separation or the date the divorce complaint/petition was filed. See the map on page 2 for a preferred valuation date summary by state (note that the summary may be modifiable for recent updates in state precedent).Those states that use date of separation or date of complaint/ petition as the valuation date face a bit of “noise” and complexity when the divorce process becomes lengthy and/or when there are significant impacts to the economy and/or industry in which that business operates.As an example, consider the timeframe from December 31, 2019 to now, Summer 2020, and the economic reverberation of COVID-19. A valuation as of these two dates will look quite different due to changes in actual business performance as well as shifts in future expectations/outlooks for the business and its industry. However, this is not only a consideration for those states which use date of separation or date of petition. This is also an important consideration for matters which have extended over a prolonged period. It is also critical for current matters – we are all aware that much has transpired since December 31, 2019 – as that valuation date may no longer accurately reflect the overall picture of the business, necessitating a secondary valuation, or alternatively, an update to the prior valuation.Let’s take a deeper dive at understanding the importance of valuation date as it relates to the divorce process.Why Does the Valuation Date Matter?Laws differ state to state regarding valuation date and standard of value (generally fair market value or fair value). There are other nuances related to the business valuation for divorce process, such as premise of value which is often a going-concern value as opposed to a liquidation value. After the standard of value, premise of value, and the valuation date have been established, the business appraiser must then incorporate relevant known and knowable facts and circumstances at the date of valuation when determining a valuation conclusion. These facts and trends are reflected in historical financial performance, anticipated future operations, and industry/economic conditions and can fluctuate depending on the date of valuation. Using our prior example, the conditions of Summer 2020 are vastly different than year-end 2019 due to COVID-19. For many businesses, actual performance financial performance in 2020 has been materially different than what was expected for 2020 during December 2019 budgeting processes. The current environment has made the facts and circumstances in anticipated future budget(s), both short-term and long-term, even more meaningful. The income approach reflects the present value of all future cash flows. So, even if a business is performing at lower levels today, that may not necessarily be a permanent impact, particularly if rebound is anticipated. Thus, that value today may be impacted by a short-term decrease in earnings; however, an anticipated future rebound will also impact the valuation today. It must be pointed out that it would be incorrect to consider the impact of COVID-19 for a valuation date prior to approximately March 2020, as the economic impact of the pandemic was not reasonably known or knowable prior to that date. Therefore, the valuation date is meaningful and a significant consideration in any valuation process, and especially in current conditions. A state that typically requires a date of separation may consider consensus among parties to update to a more recent date as much has changed between then and now. How Have Valuations Been Affected by COVID-19?Valuations of any privately held company involve the understanding and consideration of many factors. We try to avoid absolutes in valuations such as always and never. The true answer to the question of how have valuations of privately held companies been affected by the coronavirus is “It Depends.”It depends on what industry the business operates in and how that industry has been impacted (whether negatively or positively) by COVID-19 conditions.It depends on where the subject company is geographically as we are seeing timing impacts from openings/closures differ throughout the country and globally.It depends on what markets the subject company serves. As we have seen and are continuing to see across the country, the stay-at-home restrictions have varied greatly from state to state and certain areas have been more severely affected than other. Certain industries, such as airlines, hospitality, retail, and restaurants, have been far more impacted than other industries. As a general benchmark, the overall performance of the stock market from the beginning of 2020 until now can serve as a guide. The stock market has been volatile since the March global impact from COVID-19 began to unfold. Specific indicators of each subject company, such as actual performance and the economic/industry conditions relative to their geographic footprint, also govern the impact of any potential change in valuation.Valuation Date Considerations for Lengthy ProcessesThe valuation date for purposes of business valuation for marital dissolution is an important issue, even in times without the current COVID-19 conditions. Consider matters that extend into multiple years from time of separation to time of divorce decree. Has the value of the business changed during this time? If the answer is yes, or maybe, another consideration for some clients may be related to the cost of another valuation. However, the importance of an accurate and timely valuation should far outweigh the concerns of additional expense to update a conclusion.It is important to discuss these elements with your expert as the process may depend on the length of time which has transpired since the original valuation and the facts and circumstances of the business/economy/industry. Your expert will be able to determine if an acceptable update may be simply updating prior calculations; however, if much has changed, such as expectations for the future performance of the business, the approach may involve a secondary valuation using a current date of valuation.Another consideration to keep in mind: depending on jurisdiction, state law may deem the value of the business after separation but before divorce as separate property. If this is the case, two valuation dates are necessary.Concluding ThoughtsThe litigation environment is complex and already rife with doom and gloom expectations. We have previously written about the phenomenon referred to as divorce recession in family law engagements. Understanding the valuation date of an asset valuation, such as a privately held business, for marital dissolution is an important consideration, especially for matters which have extended over a lengthy time and those that may be impacted by significant global events such as COVID-19. Speak to your valuation expert when these matters arise. The already complex process of business valuation becomes even more complex with the passing of time and also in the midst of economic uncertainty.
Stress Testing and Capital Planning for  Banks and Credit Unions During the  COVID-19 Pandemic
Stress Testing and Capital Planning for Banks and Credit Unions During the COVID-19 Pandemic
A stress test is defined as a risk management tool that consists of estimating the bank’s financial position over a time horizon – approximately two years – under different scenarios (typically a baseline, adverse, and severe scenario).The concept of stress testing for banks and credit unions is akin to the human experience of going in for a check up and running on a treadmill so your cardiologist can measure how your heart performs under stress. Similar to stress tests performed by doctors, stress tests for financial institutions can ultimately improve the health of the bank or credit union (“CU”). The benefits of stress testing for financial institutions include: Enhancing strategic/capital planningImproving risk managementEnhancing the value and earning power of the bank or credit unionAs many public companies in other industries have pulled earnings guidance due to the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook amid the coronavirus pandemic, community banks and CUs do not have that luxury.Key stakeholders, boards, and regulators will desire a better understanding of the ability of the bank or CU to withstand the severe economic shock of the pandemic. Fortunately, stress testing has been a part of the banking lexicon since the last global financial crisis began in 2008. We can leverage many lessons learned from the last decade or so of this annual exercise.Conducting a Stress Test It can be easy to get overwhelmed when faced with scenario and capital planning amidst the backdrop of a global pandemic with a virus whose path and duration is ultimately uncertain.However, it is important to stay grounded in established stress testing steps and techniques. Below we discuss the four primary steps that we take to help clients conduct a stress test in light of the current economic environment.Step 1: Determine the Economic Scenarios to ConsiderIt is important to determine the appropriate stress event to consider.Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve’s original 2020 scenarios published in 1Q2020 seem less relevant today since they forecast peak unemployment at 10%, versus the recent peak national unemployment rate of 14.7% (April 2020).However, the Federal Reserve supplemented the original scenario with a sensitivity analysis for the 2020 stress testing round related to coronavirus scenarios in late 2Q20, which provides helpful insights. The Federal Reserve’s sensitivity analysis had three alternative downside scenarios: A rapid V-shaped recovery that regains much of the output and employment lost by year-end 2020A slower, more U-shaped recovery in which only a small share of lost output and employment is regained in 2020A W-shaped double dip recession with a short-lived recovery followed by a severe drop in late 2020 due to a second wave of COVIDSome of the key macroeconomic variables in these scenarios are found in Table 1.In our view, these scenarios provide community banks and credit unions with economic scenarios from which to begin a sound stress testing and capital planning framework.Step 2: Segment the Loan Portfolio and Estimate Loan Portfolio Stress LossesWhile determining potential loan losses due to the uncertainty from a pandemic can be particularly daunting, we can take clues from the Federal Reserve’s release of results in late 2Q20 from some of the largest banks.While the specific loss rates for specific banks weren’t disclosed, the Fed’s U, V, and W sensitivity analysis noted that aggregate loss rates were higher than both the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) and the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (“SCAP”) assumptions from the prior downturn. We note that many community banks and CUs may feel that their portfolios in aggregate will weather the COVID storm better than their larger counterparts (data provided in Table 2).We have previously notedthat community bank loan portfolios are more diverse now than during the prior downturn and cumulative charge-offs were lower for community banks as a whole than the larger banks during the GFC.For example, cumulative charge-offs for community banks over a longer distressed time period during the GFC (four years, or sixteen quarters, from June 2008 - June 2012) were 5.1%, implying an annual charge-off rate during a stressed period of 1.28% (which is ~42% of what larger banks experienced during the GFC).However, we also note that this community bank loss history is likely understated by the survivorship bias arising from community banks that failed during the GFC.Each community bank or CU’s loan portfolio is unique, and it will be important for community banks and CUs to document the composition of their portfolio and segment the portfolio appropriately. Segmentation of the loan portfolio will be particularly important.The Fed noted that certain sectors will behave differently during the COVID downturn. The leisure, hospitality, tourism, retail, and food sectors are likely to have higher credit risk during the pandemic. Proper loan segmentation should include segmentation for higher risk industry sectors during the current pandemic as well as COVID-modified/restructured loans.Once the portfolio is segmented, loss history over an extended period and a full business cycle (likely 10-12 years of history) will be important to assess. While the current pandemic is a different event, this historical loss experience can be leveraged to provide insights into future prospects and underwriting strength during a downturn and relative to peer loss experience. In certain situations, it may also be relevant to consider the correlation between those historical losses and certain economic factors such as the unemployment rate in the institution’s market areas. For example, a regression analysis can determine which variables were most significant statistically in driving historical losses during prior downturns and help determine which variables may be most relevant in the current pandemic. For those variables deemed statistically significant, the regression analysis can also provide a forecasting tool to estimate and/or test the reasonableness of future loss rates based on assumed changes in those variables that may be above and beyond historical experience. Lastly, higher risk loan portfolio segments (such as those in more economically exposed sectors) and larger loans that were modified during the pandemic may need to be supplemented by some “bottom-up” analysis of certain loans to determine how these credits may fare in the different economic scenarios previously described.To the extent losses can be modeled for each individual loan, these losses can be used to estimate losses for those particular loans and also leveraged to support assumptions for other loan portfolio segments.Step 3: Estimate the Impact of Stress on EarningsStep 3 expands the focus beyond just the loan portfolio and potential credit losses from the pandemic modeled in Step 2 and focuses on the institution’s “core” earning power and sensitivity of that over the economic scenarios modeled in Step 1. When assessing “core” earning power, it is important to consider the potential impact of the economic scenarios on the interest rate outlook and net interest margins (“NIM”). While the outlook is uncertain, Federal Reserve rate cuts have already started to crimp margins. Beyond the headwinds brought about by the pandemic, it is also important to consider any potential tailwinds in certain countercyclical areas like mortgage banking, PPP loan income, and/or efficiency brought about by greater adoption of digital technology and cost savings from branch closures.Ultimately, the earnings model over the stressed period relies on key assumptions that need to be researched, explained, and supported related to NIM, earning assets, non-interest income, expenses/efficiency, and provision expense in light of the credit losses modeled in Step 2.Step 4: Estimate the Impact of Stress on CapitalStep 4 combines all the work done in Steps 1, 2, and 3 and ultimately models capital levels and ratios over the entirety of the forecast periods (which is normally nine quarters) in the different economic scenarios. Capital at the end of the forecast period is ultimately a function of capital and reserve levels immediately prior to the stressed period plus earnings or losses generated over the stressed period (inclusive of credit losses and provisions estimated).When assessing capital ratios during the pandemic period, it is important to also consider the impact of any strategic decisions that may help to alleviate stress on capital during this period, such as raising sub-debt, eliminating distributions or share repurchases, and slowing balance sheet growth.For perspective, the results released from the Federal Reserve suggested that under the V, U, and W shaped alternative downside scenarios, the aggregate CET1 capital ratios were 9.5%, 8.1%, and 7.7%, respectively.What Should Your Bank or Credit Union Do with the Results?What your bank or credit union should do with the results depends on the institution’s specific situation.For example, assume that your stress test reveals a lower exposure to certain economically exposed sectors during the pandemic and some countercyclical strengths such as mortgage banking/asset management/ PPP revenues.This helps your bank or CU maintain relatively strong and healthy performance over the stressed period in terms of capital, asset quality, and earnings performance. This performance could allow for and support a strategic/capital plan involving the continuation of dividends and/or share repurchases, accessing capital and/or sub-debt for growth opportunities, and proactively looking at ways to grow market share both organically and through potential acquisitions during and after the pandemic-induced downturn.For those banks and CUs that include M&A in the strategic/capital plan over the next two years, improved stress testing capabilities at your institution should assist with stress testing the target’s loan portfolio during the due diligence process. Alternatively, consider a bank that is in a relatively weaker position.In this case, the results may provide key insight that leads to quantifying the potential capital shortfall, if any, relative to either regulatory minimums or internal targets.After estimating the shortfall, management can develop an action plan, which could entail seeking additional common equity,accessing sub-debt, selling branches or higher-risk loan portfolios to shrink the balance sheet, or considering potential merger partners.Integrating the stress test results with identifiable action plans to remediate any capital shortfall can demonstrate that the bank’s existing capital, including any capital enhancement actions taken, is adequate in stressed economic scenarios. How Mercer Capital Can Help A well-reasoned and documented stress test can provide regulators, directors, and management the comfort of knowing that capital levels are adequate, at a minimum, to withstand the pandemic and maintain the dividend.A stress test can also support other strategies to enhance shareholder value, such as a share buyback plan, higher dividends, a strategic acquisition, or other actions to take advantage of the disruption caused by the pandemic.The results of the stress test should also enhance your bank or credit union’s decision-making process and be incorporated into strategic planning and the management of credit risk, interest rate risk, and capital.Having successfully completed thousands of engagements for financial institutions over the last 35 years, Mercer Capital has the experience to solve complex financial issues impacting community banks and credit unions during the ups and downs of economic cycles. Mercer Capital can help scale and improve your institution’s stress testing in a variety of ways. We can provide advice and support for assumptions within your bank or credit union’s pre-existing stress test. We can also develop a unique, custom stress test that incorporates your institution’s desired level of complexity and adequately captures the unique risks you face. Regardless of the approach, the desired outcome is a stress test and capital plan that can be used by managers, directors, and regulators to monitor capital adequacy, manage risk, enhance the bank’s performance, and improve strategic decisions. For more information on Mercer Capital’s Stress Testing and Capital Planning solutions, contact Jay Wilson at wilsonj@mercercapital.com. Originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, July 2020.
A “Grievous” Valuation Error: Tax Court Protects Boundaries of Fair Market Value in Grieve Decision
A “Grievous” Valuation Error: Tax Court Protects Boundaries of Fair Market Value in Grieve Decision
All fair market determinations involve assumptions regarding how buyers and sellers would behave in a transaction involving the subject asset. In a recent Tax Court case, the IRS appraiser applied a novel valuation rationale predicated on transactions that would occur involving assets other than the subject interests being valued. In its ruling, the Court concluded that this approach transgressed the boundaries of what may be assumed in a valuation.BackgroundAt issue in Grieve was the fair market value of non-voting Class B interests in two family LLCs.The first, Rabbit, owned a portfolio of marketable securities having a net asset value of approximately $9 million.The second, Angus, owned a portfolio of cash, private equity investments, and promissory notes having a net asset value of approximately $32 million. Both Rabbit and Angus were capitalized with Class A voting and Class B non-voting interests. The Class A voting interests comprised 0.2% of the total economic interest in each entity. The Class A voting interests were owned by the taxpayer’s daughter, who exercised control over the investments and operations of the entities.Valuation Conclusion – TaxpayerThe taxpayer measured the fair market value of the Class B non-voting interests using commonly accepted methods for family LLCs. The net asset value of each LLC was deemed to represent the value on a controlling interest basis.Since the subject Class B non-voting interests did not possess control over either entity, the net asset value was reduced by a minority interest discount. The taxpayer estimated the magnitude of the minority interest discount with reference to studies of minority shares in closed end funds.Unlike the minority shares in closed end funds, there was no active market for the Class B non-voting interests in Rabbit and Angus. As a result, the taxpayer applied a marketability discount to the marketable minority indication of value. The taxpayer estimated the marketability discount with reference to restricted stock studies. The combined valuation discount applied to the Class B nonvoting interests was on the order of 35% for both Rabbit and Angus, as shown in Exhibit 1. Valuation Conclusion – IRSThe IRS adopted a novel approach for determining the fair market value of the Class B non-voting interests.Noting the disparity in economic interests between the Class A voting (0.2%) and Class B non-voting interests (99.8%), the IRS concluded that a hypothetical willing seller of the Class B non-voting interest would sell the subject interest only after having first acquired the Class A voting interest. Having done so, the owner of the class B non-voting interest could then sell both the Class A voting and Class B nonvoting interests in a single transaction, presumably for net asset value.If the dollar amount paid of the premium paid for the Class A voting interest is less than the aggregate valuation discount applicable to the Class B non-voting interest, the hypothesized series of transactions would yield more net proceeds than simply selling the Class B non-voting interest by itself. The sequence of transactions assumed in the IRS determination of fair market value is summarized in Exhibit 2.Tax Court ConclusionIt is certainly true that – if the Class A voting interests could, in fact, be acquired at the proposed prices – the sequence of transactions assumed by the IRS yield greater net proceeds for the owner of the subject Class B non-voting interests than a direct sale of those interests. However, is the assumed sequence of transactions proposed by the IRS consistent with fair market value?The Tax Court concluded that the IRS valuation over-stepped the bounds of fair market value. The crux of the Court’s reasoning is summarized in a single sentence from the opinion: “We are looking at the value of the Class B Units on the date of the gifts and not the value of the class B units on the basis of subsequent events that, while within the realm of possibilities, are not reasonably probable, nor the value of the class A units.” Citing a 1934 Supreme Court decision (Olson), the Tax Court notes that “[e]lements affecting the value that depend upon events within the realm of possibility should not be considered if the events are not shown to be reasonably probable.” In view of the fact that (1) the owner of the Class A voting interests expressly denied any willingness to sell the units, (2) the speculative nature of the assumed premiums associated with purchase of those interests, and (3) the absence of any peer review or caselaw support for the IRS valuation methodology, the Tax Court concluded that the sequence of transactions proposed by the IRS were not reasonably probable. As a result, the Tax Court rejected the IRS valuations.The Grieve decision is a positive outcome for taxpayers. In addition to affirming the propriety of traditional valuation approaches for minority interests in family LLCs, the decision clarified the boundaries of fair market value, rejecting a novel valuation approach that assumes specific attributes of the subject interest of the valuation that do not, in fact, exist. As the Court concluded, fair market value is determined by considering the motivations of willing buyers and sellers of the subject asset, and not the willing buyers and sellers of other assets.Originally appeared in Value Matters™, Issue No. 3, 2020
Valuation Considerations in Bankruptcy Proceedings
Valuation Considerations in Bankruptcy Proceedings

An Overview for Oil & Gas Companies

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has caused a severe public health crisis and an unprecedented level of economic disruption.  While some economic activity is beginning to come back, predictions for longer-term negative economic impacts have also become more prevalent.  The initial thoughts of a quick V-shaped economic recovery have been replaced with a more nuanced consideration of how this situation will impact businesses within different industries and geographic areas over the next several years.  In some of the most hard-hit industries, we are already seeing what is expected to be a prolonged surge in corporate restructurings and bankruptcy filings.While some oil & gas industry bankruptcies have already occurred, expectations for many more to come are widely held.In the first half of 2020, the U.S. oil and gas industry suffered what was arguably its worst six-month period ever.  The combined impact of the Saudi/Russian price war and the drop in energy demand due to the onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented.  Brent crude prices that had begun the year near $67 per barrel had dropped to $50 per barrel by early March before plummeting to $19 per barrel by the end of the quarter when the Saudi/Russia spat was in full force, but while the impact of the pandemic was still materializing.  Since the start of the pandemic, liquid fuel consumption has dropped by 15% with production levels falling 10%.  Drilling activity has been even harder hit with rig counts (active rotary rigs) now at a mere 30% of early first quarter levels.  Despite oil prices having partially recovered, oilfield activity remains anemic with the OFS industry having shed nearly 90,000 jobs through May.  While in a few areas oil and gas can be produced profitably at mid-year 2020 prices (WTI at 38.31 and Henry Hub at $1.63), most areas cannot.  Thus, while some oil & gas industry bankruptcies have already occurred, expectations for many more to come are widely held.For oil & gas companies, the decision to file for bankruptcy does not necessarily signal the demise of the business.  If executed properly, Chapter 11 reorganization affords a financially distressed or insolvent company an opportunity to restructure its liabilities and emerge from the proceedings as a viable going concern.  Along with a bankruptcy filing (more typically before and/or in preparation for the filing), the company usually undertakes a strategic review of its operations, including opportunities to shed assets or even lines of business.  During the reorganization proceeding, stakeholders, including creditors and equity holders, negotiate and litigate to establish economic interests in the emerging entity.  The Chapter 11 reorganization process concludes when the bankruptcy court confirms a reorganization plan that both specifies a reorganization value and reflects the agreed upon strategic direction and capital structure of the emerging entity.In addition to fulfilling technical requirements of the bankruptcy code and providing adequate disclosure, two characteristics of a reorganization plan are germane from a valuation perspective:11. The plan should demonstrate that the economic outcomes for any consenting stakeholders are superior under Chapter 11 proceeding compared to a Chapter 7 proceeding, which provides for more direct relief through a liquidation of the business. This is generally referred to as the “best interests test.”2. The plan should demonstrate that, upon confirmation by the bankruptcy court, it will not likely result in liquidation or further reorganization of the business. This is generally referred to as the “cash flow test.”Finally, upon emerging from bankruptcy, companies are required to apply “fresh start” accounting, under which all assets of the company, including identifiable intangible assets, are recorded on the balance sheet at fair value.Best Interests TestWithin this context of a best interests test, valuation specialists can provide useful financial advice to:Establish the value of the business under a Chapter 7 liquidation premise.Measure the reorganization value of a business, which, absent liquidation, represents the economic “pie” from which stakeholder claims can be satisfied. A plan confirmed by a bankruptcy court should establish a reorganization value that exceeds the value of the company under a liquidation premise.A Floor Value: Liquidation ValueIf a company can no longer pay its debts and does not restructure, it will undergo Chapter 7 liquidation.  The law generally mandates that Chapter 11 restructuring only be approved if it provides a company’s creditors with their highest level of expected repayment.  The Chapter 11 restructuring plan must be in the best interest of the creditors (relative to Chapter 7 liquidation) in order for it to be approved.  Given this understanding of the law, the first valuation step in successful Chapter 11 restructuring is assessing the alternative, liquidation value. This value will be a threshold that any reorganization plan must outperform in order to be accepted by the court.The value in liquidating a business is unfortunately not as simple as finding the fair market value, or even a book value for all the assets.  The liquidation premise generally contemplates a sale of the company’s assets within a short period.  Any valuation must account for the fact that inadequate time to place the assets in the open market means that the price obtained is usually lower than the fair market value.  Everyone has seen the “inventory liquidation sale” sign or the “going out of business” sign in the shop window.  Experience tells us that the underlying “marketing period” assumptions made in a liquidation analysis can have a material impact on the valuation conclusion.Liquidation value can occur under three sub-sets: assemblage of assets, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation.From a technical perspective, liquidation value can occur under three sub-sets: assemblage of assets, orderly liquidation, and forced liquidation.  As implied, these are asset-based approaches to valuation that differ in their assumptions surrounding the marketing period and manner in which the assets are disposed.  There are no strict guidelines in the bankruptcy process related to these three sub-sets; bankruptcy courts generally determine the applicable premise of value on a case by case basis.  The determination (and support) of the appropriate premise can be an important component of the best interests test.In general, the discount from fair market value implied by the price obtainable under a liquidation premise is related to the liquidity of an asset.  Accordingly, valuation analysts often segregate the assets of the petitioner company into several categories based upon the ease of disposal.  Liquidation value is estimated for each category by referencing available discount benchmarks.  For example, no haircut would typically be applied to cash and equivalents, while less liquid assets (such as accounts receivable or inventory) would likely incur potentially significant discounts.  For some assets categories, the appropriate level of discount can be estimated by analyzing the prices commanded in the sale of comparable assets under a similarly distressed sale scenario.  Within the oil & gas industry, the operating assets come in many varieties, from oil & gas reserves, industry-specific well-site equipment and midstream assets, and less industry-specific equipment utilized by oilfield service providers.Reorganization ValueOnce an accurate liquidation value is established, the next step is determining whether the company can be reorganized in a way that provides more value to a company’s stakeholders than discounted asset sales.ASC 852 defines reorganization value as:2The value attributable to the reconstituted entity, as well as the expected net realizable value of those assets that will be disposed of before reconstitution occurs. This value is viewed as the value of the entity before considering liabilities and approximates the amount a willing buyer would pay for the assets of the entity immediately after restructuring.Typically, the “value attributable to the reconstituted entity” (i.e., the new enterprise value for the restructured business) is the largest element of the total reorganization value.  Unlike a liquidation, this enterprise value falls under what valuation professionals call a “going concern” value premise.  This means that the business is valued based on the return that would be generated by the future operations of the emerging, restructured entity and not what one would be paid for selling individual assets.  The intangible elements of going concern value result from factors such as having a trained workforce, a loyal customer base, an operational plant, and the necessary licenses, systems, and procedures in place.  To measure enterprise value in this way, reorganization plans primarily use a type of income approach, the discounted cash flow (DCF) method.  The DCF method estimates the net present value of future cash flows that the emerging entity is expected to generate.  Implementing the discounted cash flow methodology requires three basic elements:1. Forecast of Expected Future Cash Flows. Guidance from management can be critical in developing a supportable cash flow forecast. Generally, valuation specialists develop cash flow forecasts for discrete periods that may range from three to ten years, or in the case of upstream companies, the economic life of the company’s reserves. Conceptually, one would forecast discrete cash flows for as many periods as necessary until a stabilized cash flow stream can be anticipated.  Due to the opportunity to make broad strategic changes as part of the reorganization process, cash flows from the emerging entity must be projected for the period when the company expects to execute its restructuring and transition plans.  Major drivers of the cash flow forecast include projected revenue, gross margins, operating costs and capital expenditure requirements.  The historical experience of the petitioner company, as well as information from publicly traded companies operating in similar lines of business, can provide reference points to evaluate each element of the cash flow forecast.2. Terminal Value. The terminal value captures the value of all cash flows after the discrete forecast period. Terminal value is determined by using assumptions about long-term cash flow growth rate and the discount rate to capitalize cash flow at the end of the forecast period.  This means that the model takes the cash flow value for the last discrete year, and then grows it at a constant rate for perpetuity.  In some cases, the terminal value may be estimated by applying current or projected market multiples to the projected results in the last discrete year. An average EV/EBITDA of comparable companies, for instance, might be used to find a likely market value of the business at that date.  For upstream oil & gas companies, a terminal value is typically not utilized given the finite nature of the underlying resource.  Instead, the discrete cash flows are projected for the entire economic life of the reserves.3. Discount Rate. The discount rate is used to estimate the present value of the forecasted cash flows. Valuation analysts develop a suitable discount rate using assumptions about the costs of equity and debt capital, and the capital structure of the emerging entity.  Costs of equity capital are usually estimated by utilizing a build-up method that uses the long-term risk-free rate, equity risk premia, and other industry or company-specific factors as inputs.  The cost of debt capital and the likely capital structure may be based on benchmark rates on similar issues and the structures of comparable companies.  Overall, the discount rate should reasonably reflect the operational and market risks associated with the expected cash flows of the emerging entity.The sum of the present values of all the forecasted cash flows, including discrete period cash flows and the terminal value (if appropriate), provides an indication of the business enterprise value of the emerging entity for a specific set of forecast assumptions.  The reorganization value is the sum of that expected business enterprise value of the emerging entity and proceeds from any sale or other disposal of assets during the reorganization. Since the DCF-determined part of this value relies on so many forecast assumptions, different stakeholders may independently develop distinct estimates of the reorganization value to facilitate negotiations or litigation.  The eventual confirmed reorganization plan, however, reflects the terms agreed upon by the consenting stakeholders and specifies either a range of reorganization values or a single point estimate.In conjunction with the reorganization plan, the courts also approve the amounts of allowed claims or interests for the stakeholders in the restructuring entity.  From the perspective of the stakeholders, the reorganization value represents all of the resources available to meet the post-petition liabilities (liabilities from continued operations during restructuring) and allowed claims and interests called for in the confirmed reorganization plan.  If this agreed upon reorganization value exceeds the value to the stakeholders of the liquidation, then there is only one more valuation hurdle to be cleared: a cash flow test.  This is an examination of whether the restructuring creates a company that will be viable for the long term—that is not likely to be back in bankruptcy court in a few years.Cash Flow TestFor a company that passes the best interest test, this second requirement represents the last valuation hurdle to successfully emerging from Chapter 11 restructuring. Within the context of a cash flow test, valuation specialists can demonstrate the viability of the emerging entity’s proposed capital structure, including debt amounts and terms given the stream of cash flows that can be reasonably expected from the business.  The cash flow test essentially represents a test of the company’s current and projected future financial solvency.The cash flow test essentially represents a test of the company’s current and projected future financial solvency.Even if a company shows that the restructuring plan will benefit stakeholders relative to liquidation, the court will still reject the plan if it is likely to lead to liquidation or further restructuring in the foreseeable future.  To satisfy the court, a cash flow test is used to analyze whether the restructured company would generate enough cash to consistently pay its debts.  This cash flow test can be broken into three parts.The first step in conducting the cash flow test is to identify the cash flows that the restructured company will generate.  These cash flows are available to service all the obligations of the emerging entity.  A stream of cash flows is developed using the DCF method in order to determine the reorganization value.  Thus, in practice, establishing the appropriate stream of cash flows for the cash flow test is often a straightforward matter of using these projected cash flows in the new model.Once the fundamental cash flow projections are incorporated, analysts then model the negotiated or litigated terms attributable to the creditors of the emerging entity.  This involves projecting interest and principal payments to the creditors, including any amounts due to providers of short term, working capital facilities.  These are the payments for each period that the cash flow generated up to that point must be able to cover in order for the company to avoid another bankruptcy.The cash flows of the company will not be used only to pay debts, and so the third and final step in the cash flow test is documenting the impact of the net cash flows on the entire balance sheet of the emerging entity.  This entails modeling changes in the company’s asset base as portions of the expected cash flows are invested in working capital and capital equipment, and modeling changes in the debt obligations of and equity interests in the company as the remaining cash flows are disbursed to the capital providers.A reorganization plan is generally considered viable if such a detailed cash flow model indicates solvent operations for the foreseeable future.  The answer, however, is typically not so simple as assessing a single cash flow forecast.  It is a rare occurrence when management’s base case forecast does not pass the cash flow test.  The underpinnings of the entire reorganization plan are based on this forecast, so it is almost certain that the cash flow projections have been produced with an eye toward meeting this requirement.  Viability is proven not only by passing the cash flow test on a base case scenario, but also maintaining financial viability under some set of reasonable projections in which the company (or industry, or general economy) underperforms the base level of expectations.  This “stress-testing” of the company’s financial projection is a critical component of a meaningful cash flow test.“Fresh Start” AccountingCompanies emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy are required to re-state their balance sheets to conform to the reorganization value and plan.On the left side of the balance sheet, emerging companies need to allocate the reorganization value to the various tangible and identifiable intangible assets the post-bankruptcy company owns. To the extent the reorganization value exceeds the sum of the fair value of individual identifiable assets, the balance is recorded as goodwill.On the right side of the balance sheet, the claims of creditors are re-stated to conform to the terms of the reorganization plan. Implementing “fresh start” accounting requires valuation expertise to develop reasonably accurate fair value measurements. ConclusionAlthough the Chapter 11 process can seem burdensome, a rigorous assessment of cash flows, and a company’s capital structure can help the company as it develops a plan for years of future success.  We hope that this explanation of the key valuation-related steps of a Chapter 11 restructuring helps managers realize this potential.However, we also understand that executives of oil & gas companies going through a Chapter 11 restructuring process need to juggle an extraordinary set of additional responsibilities—evaluating alternate strategies, implementing new and difficult business plans, and negotiating with various stakeholders.  Given executives’ multitude of other responsibilities, they often decide that it is best to seek help from outside, third party specialists. Valuation specialists can relieve some of the burden from executives by developing the valuation and financial analysis necessary to satisfy the requirements for a reorganization plan to be confirmed by a bankruptcy court.  Specialists can also provide useful advice and perspective during the negotiation of the reorganization plan to help the company emerge with the best chance of success.With years of experience in both oil & gas and in advising companies through the bankruptcy process, Mercer Capital’s professionals are well-positioned to help in both of these roles.  For a confidential conversation about your company’s current financial position and how we might assist in your bankruptcy-related analyses, please contact a Mercer Capital professional.1 Accounting Standards Codification Topic 852, Reorganizations (“ASC 852”). ASC 852-05-8.2 ASC 852-10-20.
Does Your Bank Need an Interim Impairment Test Due to the Economic Impact of COVID-19?
Does Your Bank Need an Interim Impairment Test Due to the Economic Impact of COVID-19?
Analysts and pundits are debating whether the economic recovery will be shaped like a U, V, W, swoosh, or check mark and how long it may take to fully recover. To find clues, many are following the lead of the healthcare professionals and looking to Asia for economic and market data since these economies experienced the earliest hits and recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic.Taking a similar approach led me to take a closer look at the Japanese megabanks for clues about how U.S. banks may navigate the COVID-19 crisis. In Japan, the banking industry is grappling with similar issues as U.S. banks, including the need to further cut costs; expanding branch closures; enhancing digital efforts; bracing for a tough year as bankruptcies rise; and looking for acquisitions in faster growing markets.Another similarity is impairment charges. Two of the three Japanese megabanks recently reported impairment charges. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) reported a ¥343 billion impairment charge related to two Indonesian and Thai lenders that MUFG owned controlling interests in and whose share price had dropped ~50% since acquisition. Mizuho Financial Group incurred a ¥39 billion impairment charge.In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, there have not been many goodwill impairment charges recognized by U.S. banks. A handful of banks including PacWest (NASDAQ-PACW) and Great Western Bancorp (NYSE-GWB) announced impairment charges with the release of 1Q20 results. Both announced dividend reductions, too.Absent a rebound in bank stocks, more goodwill impairment charges likely will be recognized this year. Bank stocks remain depressed relative to year-end pricing levels despite some improvements in May and early June. For perspective, the S&P 500 Index was down ~5% from year-end 2019 through May 31, 2020 compared to a decline of ~32% for the SNL Small Cap Bank Index and ~34% for the SNL Bank Index.This sharper decline for banks reflects concerns around net interest margin compression, future credit losses, and loan growth potential. The declines in the public markets mirrored similar declines in M&A activity and several bank transactions that had previously been announced were terminated before closing with COVID-19 impacts often cited as a key factor.Price discovery from the public markets tends to be a leading indicator that impairment charges and/or more robust impairment testing is warranted. The declines in the markets led to multiple compression for most public banks and the majority have been priced at discounts to book value since late March. At May 31, 2020, ~77% of publicly traded community banks (i.e., having assets below $5B) were trading at a discount to their book value with a median of ~83%. Within the cohort of banks trading below book value at May 31, 2020, ~74% were trading below tangible book value.Do I Need an Impairment Test?Goodwill impairment testing is typically performed annually. But the unprecedented events precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic now raise questions whether an interim goodwill impairment test is warranted.The accounting guidance in ASC 350 prescribes that interim goodwill impairment tests may be necessary in the case of certain “triggering” events. For public companies, perhaps the most easily observable triggering event is a decline in stock price, but other factors may constitute a triggering event. Further, these factors apply to both public and private companies, even those private companies that have previously elected to amortize goodwill under ASU 2017-04.For interim goodwill impairment tests, ASC 350 notes that management should assess relevant events and circumstances that might make it more likely than not that an impairment condition exists. The guidance provides several examples, several of which are relevant for the bank industry including the following:Industry and market considerations such as a deterioration in the environment in which an entity operates or an increased competitive environmentDeclines in market-dependent multiples or metrics (consider in both absolute terms and relative to peers)Overall financial performance such as negative or declining cash flows or a decline in actual or planned revenue or earnings compared with actual and projected results of relevant prior periodsChanges in the carrying amount of assets at the reporting unit including the expectation of selling or disposing certain assetsIf applicable, a sustained decrease in share price (considered both in absolute terms and relative to peers) The guidance notes that an entity should also consider positive and mitigating events and circumstances that may affect its conclusion. If a recent impairment test has been performed, the headroom between the recent fair value measurement and carrying amount could also be a factor to consider.How Does an Impairment Test Work?Once an entity determines that an interim impairment test is appropriate, a quantitative “Step 1” impairment test is required. Under Step 1, the entity must measure the fair value of the relevant reporting units (or the entire company if the business is defined as a single reporting unit). The fair value of a reporting unit refers to “the price that would be received to sell the unit as a whole in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date.”For companies that have already adopted ASU 2017-04, the legacy “Step 2” analysis has been eliminated, and the impairment charge is calculated as simply the difference between fair value and carrying amount.ASC 820 provides a framework for measuring fair value which recognizes the three traditional valuation approaches: the income approach, the market approach, and the cost approach. As with most valuation assignments, judgment is required to determine which approach or approaches are most appropriate given the facts and circumstances. In our experience, the income and market approaches are most used in goodwill impairment testing. However, the market approach is somewhat limited in the current environment given the lack of transaction activity in the banking sector post-COVID-19.In the current environment, we offer the following thoughts on some areas that are likely to draw additional scrutiny from auditors and regulators.Are the financial projections used in a discounted cash flow analysis reflective of recent market conditions? What are the model’s sensitivities to changes in key inputs?Given developments in the market, do measures of risk (discount rates) need to be updated?If market multiples from comparable companies are used to support the valuation, are those multiples still applicable and meaningful in the current environment?If precedent M&A transactions are used to support the valuation, are those multiples still relevant in the current environment?If the subject company is public, how does its current market capitalization compare to the indicated fair value of the entity (or sum of the reporting units)? What is the implied control premium and is it reasonable in light of current market conditions? At a minimum, we anticipate that additional analyses and support will be necessary to address these questions. The documentation from an impairment test at December 31, 2019 might provide a starting point, but the reality is that the economic and market landscape has changed significantly in the first half of 2020.Concluding ThoughtsWhile not all industries have been impacted in the same way from the COVID-19 pandemic and economic shutdown, the banking industry will not escape unscathed given the depressed valuations observed in the public markets. For public and private banks, it can be difficult to ignore the sustained and significant drop in publicly traded bank stock prices and the implications that this might have on fair value and the potential for goodwill impairment.At Mercer Capital, we have experience in implementing both the qualitative and quantitative aspects of interim goodwill impairment testing. To discuss the implications and timing of triggering events, please contact a professional in Mercer Capital’s Financial Institutions Group.Originally published in Bank Watch, June 2020.Request for ProposalMercer Capital is pleased to prepare a proposal for impairment testing services for your bank or bank holding company. Follow the link below to complete a submission.Bank Impairment Testing Proposal Request »
Top Three Valuation Considerations for Credit Unions When Contemplating a Bank Acquisition
Top Three Valuation Considerations for Credit Unions When Contemplating a Bank Acquisition
After five or six years of strong bank M&A activity, 2020 slowed drastically following the onset of COVID-19.Eventually, we expect M&A activity will rebound once buyers have more confidence in the economy and the COVID-19 medical outlook. In that case, there will be greater certainty around seller’s earnings outlook and credit quality, particularly for those loan segments more exposed in the post-COVID-19 economic environment. The factors that drive consolidation such as buyers’ needs to obtain scale, improve profitability, and support growth will remain as will seller desires to exit due to shareholder needs for liquidity and management succession among others. Credit Unions as Bank AcquirersOne emerging trend prior to the bank M&A slowdown in March 2020 was credit unions (“CUs”) acquiring small community banks.Since January 1, 2015, there have been 36 acquisitions of banks by CUs of which 15 were announced in 2019. In addition to the factors favoring consolidation noted above, credit unions can benefit from diversifying their loan portfolio away from a heavy reliance on consumers and into new geographic markets.In addition to diversification benefits, bank acquisitions can also enhance the growth profile of the acquiring CU. From the first quarter of 2015 through the second quarter of 2019, CU bank buyers grew their membership by ~23% compared to ~15% for other CUs according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.A positive for community bank sellers is that CUs pay cash and often acquire small community banks located in small communities or even rural areas, that do not interest most large community and regional bank acquirers.Valuation Issues to Consider When a Credit Union Acquires a Commercial BankThere are, of course, unique valuation issues to consider when a credit union buys (or is bidding for) a commercial bank.Transaction Form and Consideration. Transactions are often structured as an asset purchase whereby the CU pays cash consideration to acquire the assets and assume the liabilities of the underlying bank.Taxes (CU Perspective). CUs do not pay corporate income taxes, and this precludes them from acquiring certain tax-related assets and liabilities on the bank’s balance sheet, such as a deferred tax asset.Taxes (Bank Perspective). If a holding company owns a bank that is sold to a CU, then any gain will likely be subject to taxation prior to the holding company satisfying any liabilities and paying a liquidating distribution to shareholders.Expense Synergies. CUs often extract less cost savings than a bank buyer because bank acquisitions are often viewed as part of their membership growth strategy whereby the transaction expands their geographic/membership footprint and there will be no or fewer branch closures.Capital Considerations. CUs must maintain a net worth ratio of at least 7.0% to be deemed “well capitalized” by regulators. The net worth ratio is akin to a bank’s leverage ratio and the pro-forma impact from the acquisition on the net worth ratio should be estimated as the increase in assets from the acquisition can reduce the post-close net worth ratio of the CU. Some CUs may be able to issue sub debt and count it as capital but CUs often rely primarily upon retained earnings to increase capital.Other. CU acquisitions can often take longer to close than traditional bank acquisitions and, thus, an interim forecast of earnings/distributions may need to be considered for both the bank and CU to better estimate the pro forma balance sheet at closing.Valuation Considerations for Credit Unions When Contemplating Acquiring a BankBased upon our experience of working as the financial advisor to credit unions that are contemplating an acquisition of a bank, we see three broad factors CUs should consider.Developing a Reasonable Valuation Range for the Bank TargetDeveloping a reasonable valuation for a bank target is important in any economic environment but particularly so in the post-COVID-19 environment.Generally, the guideline M&A comparable transactions and discounted cash flow (“DCF”) valuation methods are relied upon.In the pre-COVID-19 environment, transaction data was more readily available so that one could tailor one or more M&A comp groups that closely reflected the target’s geographic location, asset size, financial performance, and the like.Until sufficient M&A activity resumes, timely and relevant market data is limited.Even when M&A activity resumes, inferences from historical data for CU deals should be made with caution because it is a small sample set of ~35 pre-COVID-19 deals where only 75% of announced deals since 2015 included pricing data with a wide P/TBV range of ~0.5x to ~1.7x (with a median of ~1.3x).While deal values are often reported and compared based upon multiples of tangible book value, CU acquirers are like most bank acquirers in which value is a function of projected cash flow estimates that they believe the bank target can produce in the future once merged with their CU. A key question to consider is: What factors drive the cash flow forecast and ultimately value?No two valuations or cash flow estimates are alike and determining the value for a bank or its branches requires evaluating both qualitative and quantitative factors bearing on the target bank’s current performance, outlook, growth potential, and risk attributes. The primary factors driving value in our experience include considering both qualitative and quantitative factors. In a post-COVID-19 valuation, a CU may have a high degree of confidence in expense savings, but less so in other aspects of the forecast—especially related to growth potential, credit losses, and the net interest margin (“NIM”). Developing Accurate Fair Value Estimates of the Loan Portfolio and Core Deposit Intangible It is important for CUs to develop reasonable and accurate fair value estimates as these estimates will impact the pro forma net worth of the CU at closing as well as their future earnings and net worth.In the initial accounting for a bank acquisition by a CU, acquired assets and liabilities are marked to their fair values, with the most significant marks typically for the loan portfolio followed by depositor customer relationship (core deposit) intangible assets. Loan Valuation.The loan valuation process can be complex before factoring in the COVID-19 effect on interest rates and credit loss assumptions.Our loan valuation process begins with due diligence discussions with management of the target to understand their underwriting strategy as well as specific areas of concern in the portfolio.We also typically factor in the CU acquirer’s loan review personnel to obtain their perspective.The actual valuation often relies upon a) monthly cash flow forecasts considering both the contractual loan terms, as well as the outlook for future interest rates; b) prepayment speeds; c) credit loss estimates based upon qualitative and quantitative assumptions; and d) appropriate discount rates.Problem credits above a certain threshold are typically evaluated on an individual basis.Core Deposit Intangible Valuation.Core deposit intangible asset values are driven by both market factors (interest rates) and bank-specific factors such as customer retention, deposit base characteristics, and a bank’s expense and fee structure.We also assess market data regarding the costs of alternative funding sources, the forward rate curves, and the sensitivity of the acquired deposit base to changes in market interest rates.Simultaneously, we analyze the cost of the acquired deposits relative to the market environment, looking at current interest rates paid on the deposits as well as other expenses required to service the accounts and fee income that may be generated by the accounts.We analyze historical retention characteristics of the acquired deposits and the outlook for future account retention to develop a detailed forecast of the future cost of the acquired deposits relative to an alternative cost of funds.Evaluating Key Deal Metrics to Model Strength or Weakness of TransactionOnce a valuation range is determined and the pro forma balance sheet is prepared, the CU can then begin to model certain deal metrics to assess the strength and weaknesses of the transaction.Many of the traditional metrics that banks utilize when assessing bank targets are also commonplace for CUs to evaluate and consider, including net worth (or book value) dilution and the earnback period, earnings accretion/dilution, and an IRR analysis. These and other measures usually are meaningfully impacted by the opportunity cost of cash allocated to the purchase and retention estimates for accounts and lines of business that may have an uncertain future as part of a CU.One deal metric that often gets a lot of focus from CUs is the estimated internal rate of return (“IRR”) for the transaction based upon the following key items: the cash price for the acquisitions, the opportunity cost of the cash, and the forecast cash flows/valuation for the target inclusive of any expense savings and growth/attrition over time in lines of business.This IRR estimate can then be compared to the CU’s historical and/or projected return on equity or net worth to assess whether the transaction offers the potential to enhance pro forma cash flow and provide a reasonable return to the CU and its members.In our experience, an IRR estimate 200-500 basis points (2-5%) above the CUs historical return on equity (net worth) implies an attractive acquisition candidate. ConclusionMercer Capital has significant experience providing valuation, due diligence, and advisory services to credit unions and community banks across each phase of a potential transaction.Our services for CUs include providing initial valuation ranges to CUs for bank targets, performing due diligence on targets during the negotiation phase, providing fairness opinions and presentations related to the acquisition to the CU’s management and/or Board, and providing valuations for fair value estimates of loans and core deposit prior to or at closing. We also provide valuation and advisory services to community banks considering strategic options and can assist with developing a process to maximize valuation upon exit by including a credit union in the transaction process.Feel free to reach out to us to discuss your community bank or credit union’s unique situation in confidence. Originally published in Bank Watch, May 2020.
Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, and Credit Risk Management
Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, and Credit Risk Management
In the March 2020 Bank Watch, we provided our first impressions of the “reshaping landscape” created by the COVID-19 pandemic and its unfolding economic consequences.This month, we expand upon the potential asset quality implications of the current environment. One word that aptly describes the credit risk environment is inchoate, which is defined as “imperfectly formed or formulated” or “undeveloped.”We can satiate our analytical curiosity daily by observing trends in positive COVID-19 cases, but credit quality concerns created by the pandemic and its economic shocks lurk, barely perceptible in March 31, 2020 asset quality metrics such as delinquencies or criticized loans.However, the pandemic’s effect on bank stock prices has been quite perceptible, with publicly-traded bank stocks underperforming broad-market benchmarks due to concerns arising from both asset quality issues and an indefinite low interest rate environment.Bridging this gap between market perceptions and current asset quality metrics is the focus of this article.At the outset, we should recognize the limitations on our oracular abilities.Forward-looking credit quality estimates now involve too many variables than can comfortably fit within an Excel spreadsheet—case rates, future waves of positive diagnoses, treatment and vaccine development, and governmental responses.The duration of the downturn, however, likely will have the most significant implications for banks’ credit quality.We neither wish to overstate our forecasting capacity nor exaggerate the ultimate loss exposure.We recognize that transactions are occurring in the debt capital markets involving issuers highly exposed to the pandemic’s effects on travel and consumption—airlines, cruise operators, hotel companies, and automobile manufacturers.Investors in these offerings exhibit an ability to peer beyond the next one or two quarters or perhaps have faith that the Fed may purchase the issue too.To assess the nascent credit risk, our loan portfolio analyses augment traditional asset quality metrics with the following:Experience gleaned from the 2008 and 2009 Great Financial CrisisCollateral and industry concentrations in banks’ loan portfolios“The World Breaks Everyone and Afterward Many Are Strong in the Broken Places”A Farewell to Arms (1929) by Ernest Hemingway, which provides the preceding quotation, speaks to a longing for normality as the protagonist escapes the front lines of World War I.While perhaps a metaphor for our time, the quotation—with apologies to Hemingway—also fits the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis (“the world breaks everyone”) and uncertainties regarding banks’ preparedness for the current crisis (will the industry prove “strong in the [formerly] broken places”?).To simulate credit losses in an environment marked by a rapid increase in unemployment and an abrupt drop in GDP, analysts are using the Great Financial Crisis as a reference point.Is this reasonable?Guardedly, yes; in part because no preferable alternatives exist.But how may the current crisis develop differently, though, in terms of future loan losses?Table 1 presents aggregate loan balances for community banks at June 30, 2002 and June 30, 2007, the finalperiod prior to the Great Financial Crisis’ onset.One evident trend during this five year period is the grossly unbalanced growth in construction and development lending, which led to outsized losses in subsequent years.Have similar imbalances emerged more recently?We can observe in Table 2 that loans have not increased as quickly over the past five years as over the period leading up to the Global Financial Crisis (67% for the most recent five year period, versus 90% for the historical period).Further, the growth rates between the various loan categories remained relatively consistent, unlike in the 2002 to 2007 period.The needle looking to pop the proverbial bubble has no obvious target.Using the same data set, we also calculated in Table 3 the cumulative loss rates realized between June 30, 2008 and June 30, 2012 relative to loans existing at June 30, 2008.This analysis indicates that banks realized cumulative charge-offs of 5.1% of June 30, 2008 loans, although this calculation may be understated by the survivorship bias created by failed banks.The misplaced optimism regarding construction loans resulted in losses that significantly exceeded other real estate loan categories.Consumer loan losses are exaggerated by certain niche consumer lenders targeting a lower credit score clientele.Are these historical loss rates applicable to the current environment?Table 4 compares charge-off rates for banks in Uniform Bank Performance Report peer group 4 (banks with assets between $1 and $3 billion).Loss rates entering the Great Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic are remarkably similar.We would not expect the disparity in loss rates between construction and development lending versus other real estate loan categories to arise again (or at least to the same degree).Community banks generally eschew consumer lending; thus, consumer loan losses likely will not comprise a substantial share of charge-offs for most community banks.For consumer lending, the credit union industry likely will experience greater fall-out if unemployment rates reach the teens. Regarding community banks, we have greater concern regarding the following:Commercial and industrial lending. Whether due to business opportunities or regulatory pressure to lessen commercial real estate concentrations, we have observed shifts in portfolios in favor of C&I lending and are uncertain regarding the maintenance of underwriting standards.Some evidence also exists that C&I loan losses were increasing prior to the crisis, although the impact appeared episodic. Commercial real estate. While we can claim no originality, our analyses currently emphasize borrower and collateral types to identify sectors more exposed to COVID-19 countermeasures.We recognize, though, that this can obscure important distinctions.For example, hotels reliant on conference attendance likely are more exposed than properties serving interstate highway stopovers.Further, we expect that the pandemic will alter behavior, or accelerate trends already underway, in ways that affect CRE borrowers, whether that is businesses normalizing Zoom calls instead of in-person meetings or consumers shifting permanently from in-store to on-line shopping.In the Great Financial Crisis, banks located in more rural areas often outperformed, from a credit standpoint, their metropolitan peers, especially if they avoided purchasing out-of-market loan participations.This often reflected a tailwind from the agricultural sector.It would not be surprising if this occurs again.Agriculture has struggled for several years, weeding out weaker, overleveraged borrowers. Additionally, to the extent that the inherent geographic dispersion of more rural areas limits the spread of the coronavirus, along with less dependence on the hospitality and tourism sectors, rural banks may again experience better credit performance.“They fancied themselves free, and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.”The Plague (1947) by Albert Camus describes an epidemic sweeping an Algerian city but often is read as an allegorical tale regarding the French resistance in World War II.Sales of The Plague reportedly have tripled in Italy since the COVID-19 pandemic began, while its English publisher is rushing a reprint as quarantined readers seek perspective from Camus’ account of a village quarantined due to the ravaging bubonic plague.As Camus observed for his Algerian city, we also suspect that banks will not be free of asset quality concerns so long as COVID-19 persists.Another source of perspective regarding the credit quality outlook comes from the rating agencies and SEC filings by publicly-traded banks:Moody’s predicts that the default rate for speculative grade corporate bonds will reach 14.4% by the end of March 2021, up from 4.7% for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2020.This represents a level only slightly below the 14.7% peak reaching during the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis.1Fitch projects defaults on institutional term loans to reach $80 billion in 2020 (5% to 6% of such loans), exceeding the $78 billion record set in 2009.2Borrowers representing 17% of the commercial mortgage-backed security universe have contacted servicers regarding payment relief.Loans secured by hotel, retail, and multifamily properties represent approximately 75% of inquiries.Fitch also questions whether 90-day payment deferrals are sufficient.3Delinquent loans in commercial mortgage backed securities are projected to reach between 8.25% and 8.75% of the universe by September 30, 2020, approaching the peak of 9.0% reported in July 2011.4The delinquency rate was 1.3% as of March 2020.Fitch identified the most vulnerable sectors as hotel, retail, student housing, and single tenant properties secured by non-creditworthy tenants.Among these sectors, Fitch estimates that hotel and retail delinquencies will reach approximately 30% and 20%, respectively, relative to 1.4% and 3.5% as of March 2020.The prior recessionary peaks were 21.3% and 7.7% for hotel and retail loans, respectively.For multifamily properties, Fitch projects that bad debt expense from tenant nonpayment will exceed 10%.However, Fitch notes that its delinquency estimates do not consider forbearances.Fitch estimates that hotel loans with a pre-pandemic debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of less than 2.75x on an interest-only basis are at risk of default.Guarantor support may limit the ultimate default rate, though.Retail and multifamily loans with a pre-pandemic DSCR of less than 1.75x and 1.20x, respectively, on an interest-only basis are at risk of default.Fitch did not apply any specific coronavirus stresses to office or industrial properties.5Among banks releasing industry exposures, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) reported the largest hotel concentration at 8.5% of total loans.Data provider STR reported a 79% year-over-year decline in revenue per available room for the week ended April 18, 2020, reflecting a 64% decline in occupancy (to 23%).6First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) reported the largest retail concentration among banks reporting such granular detail at 16% of total loans.Numerous other banks reported concentrations between 10% and 15% of total loans.7Banks tend to be senior lenders in borrowers’ capital structure; thus, the rating agency data has somewhat limited applicability.Shadow lenders like business development companies and private credit lenders likely are more exposed than banks.Nevertheless, the data indicate that the rating agencies are expecting default and delinquency rates similar to the Great Financial Crisis.As for Camus’ narrator, the ultimate duration of the pandemic will determine when normality resumes.Lingering credit issues may persist, though, until well after the threat from COVID-19 recedes.ConclusionCommunity banks rightfully pride themselves as the lenders to America’s small business sector.These small businesses, though, often are more exposed to COVID-19 countermeasures and possess smaller buffers to absorb unexpected deterioration in business conditions relative to larger companies.Permanent changes in how businesses conduct operations and consumers behave will occur as new habits congeal.This leaves the community bank sector at risk.However, other factors support the industry’s ability to survive the turmoil:Extensive governmental responses such as the PPP loan program provide a lifeline to small businesses until conditions begin to recover.The industry enters this phase of the credit cycle with fewer apparent imbalances than prior to the Great Financial Crisis.A greater focus since the Great Financial Crisis on portfolio diversification and cash flow metrics proves that lessoned were learned.The smaller, more rural markets in which many community banks operate may prove more resilient, at least in the short term, than larger markets.Permissiveness from regulators regarding payment modifications will allow banks to respond sensitively to borrower distress.Nonetheless, credit losses tend to be episodic for the industry, occurring between long stretches of low credit losses.The immediate issue remains how high this cycle’s losses go before returning to the normality that ensues in Hemingway and Camus’ work after war and pestilence.1 Emmanuel Louis Bacani, “US Speculative-Grade Default Rate to Jump Toward Financial Crisis Peak – Moody’s,” S&P Global Market Intelligence, April 24, 20202 Fitch Ratings, U.S. LF/CLO Weekly, April 24, 2020.3 Fitch Ratings, North American CMBS Market Trends, April 24, 2020.4 Fitch Ratings, U.S. CMBS Delinquencies Projected to Approach Great Recession Peak Due to Coronavirus, April 9, 2020.5 Fitch Ratings, Update on Response on Coronavirus Related Reviews for North American CMBS, April 13, 2020.6 Jake Mooney and Robert Clark, “US Banks Detail Exposure to Reeling Hotel Industry in Q1 Filings,” S&P Global Market Intelligence, April 24, 20207 Tom Yeatts and Robert Clark, “First Financial, Pinnacle Rank Among Banks with Most Retail Exposure,” S&P Global Market Intelligence, April 27, 2020 Originally published in Bank Watch, April 2020.
A Reshaping Landscape
A Reshaping Landscape
March 2020 probably will prove to be among the most dramatic months for financial markets in US history.Likewise, the fallout for banks may take a year or so to fully appreciate.Nonetheless, in this issue of BankWatch, we offer our initial thoughts as it relates to the industry.Market Performance U.S. equity markets have entered a bear market, the definition of which is a drop of at least 20%.As of March 27, 2020, the S&P 500 had declined 21% year-to-date and the Russell 2000 was down 32%.Not surprisingly banks have fared worse with the SNL Large Cap Bank Index falling 39% given the implications for credit because of the government’s mandated shutdown of broad swaths of the economy due to COVID-19.Bear markets vary in length and depend upon the severity of the economic downturn, the value of assets before the downturn started, and policy responses among other factors.The 2001 recession, which was shallow, started in March and ended in November according to government statisticians; however, the bear market for equities as measured by the S&P 500 was brutal (-49%) that ran from March 2000 to November 2002. Banks trended modestly higher during 2000-2002 because they entered the downturn cheap to their late 1990s valuations and because real estate values did not fall. The Great Financial Crisis (“GFC1”) that ran from August 2007, when the Bear Stearns hedge funds failed, through year-end 2009 entailed a bear market that saw a 57% reduction in the S&P 500 between October 2007 and the bottom on March 9, 2009.Economists tell us the recession occurred from year-end 2007 throughJune 30, 2009.Unlike 2000-2002, banks were a disaster for investors because credit losses were high, and many had to raise equity at low prices to survive.We do not know how much further bank stocks may fall if at all from late March in what we are taking liberty to define as GFC2.Figure 1 provides perspective on how banks—here defined as SNL’s Small Cap US Bank Index—performed in the two-year period ended March 9, 2009, and March 27, 2020. During GFC1 the bank index fell almost 70% to when the bear market ended. (March 9 was near the date when FASB eased mark-to-market rules and the Obama Administration signaled it would not nationalize the banks.)By contrast the bank index traded sideways between March 2018 and early 2020 before plummeting about 40% at the lowest point in March as investors rushed for the exits as economic activity crashed. Massive intervention in the markets by the Fed has arrested the decline in financial assets for now, but in doing so the important market function of price discovery and therefore capital allocation has been distorted. Revaluation of BanksRelative to history banks are cheap, but that does not mean they cannot get cheaper.Alternatively, valuation multiples may rise because EPS and TBVPS fall more than share prices fall or even trade sideways or higher from here.Presumably GFC2 will be like GFC1 and most bear markets in which prices fall in anticipation of earnings that will decline later as the market discounts fundamentals that are expected to prevail 6-18 months in the future.As of late March, bank stocks were cheap to long-term average multiples with small cap banks trading for 9.4x trailing 12-month earnings and 105% of TBV compared to 7.9x and 122% for the large cap bank index.Dividend yields around 4% are enticing, too, but the downturn could be sufficiently severe to force widescale dividend cuts.We do not know and will not know until the future arrives. Interestingly, small cap banks as of March 27 were trading below the March 9, 2009, bottom at 105% of TBV vs. 118% nine years ago.Net Interest Margins—Lower for LongerPerhaps one of the more depressing expectations for banks is not that credit losses will increase but the Fed promise that short-term rates will remain anchored near zero for the foreseeable future.As shown in Figure 3, the market expects 30/90 day LIBOR to fall from current distressed levels in excess of 1.0% to around 0.3% within a few months and remain anchored there for a couple of years.Those who follow the forward curves know that forward rate expectations can change quickly.Nonetheless, the market today expects LIBOR benchmark rates (and SOFR) to fall toward the Fed Funds target range.Our expectation is that NIMs may fall below the last cycle low of ~3.5% recorded in 1H09 because asset yields are much lower today than in 2008 when the GFC1 was gathering steam.Likewise, deposit rates can be cut somewhat but they, too, are much lower now than was the case in 2008.By way of comparison the NIM for banks with $1 billion to $10 billion of assets in 4Q06 was 3.74% according to the FDIC.By 1H09 the NIM for the group had declined to less than 3.4%.As of 4Q19 the NIM was 3.67%.Credit—Regulatory Forbearance PossibleWe do not know how high credit costs will go.According to the FDIC, losses approximated 2% of loans in 2009 for banks with $1 billion to $10 billion of assets and 3% for banks with $10 billion to $250 billion of assets.Losses were especially high in C&D portfolios because residential mortgage was the epicenter of the last downturn.This time more asset classes look to be at risk because a deflationary shock has been unleashed on the global economy. The hardest hit sectors within most bank loan portfolios will be hotels and restaurants as part of the travel and leisure industry that has been impacted the most by COVID-19.Among a subset of banks in the Southwest, Dakotas and Appalachia potentially will be sizable losses in energy-related credits as oil and gas are at the epicenter of this deflationary shock. Retail CRE will see more problem assets, too, as the shutdown accelerates the shift to digital commerce. An unknown element is how shifts in consumer and business behaviors may impact credit losses.One surprise from the last recession was the move by consumers to pay auto and credit card loans while defaulting on mortgages in order to commute to work and maintain access to revolving credit.Previously consumers would default on other borrowings to save the home. The behavior was an admission by many consumers that they overpaid for houses and were willing to return to renting. In this downturn maybe consumers will let auto loans go because the average auto loan is much larger and has a longer duration than a decade ago, and ride sharing lessens the need for a car.Businesses may decide that much less office space is needed as employees become more adept at working remotely.In short, it is easy to construct a scenario in which credit losses are higher than those experienced during 2008-2010, but it is too early to know for certain.One interesting market data point arguing perhaps not is high yield bonds.The option-adjusted spread (“OAS”) on the ICE BofA High Yield Index peaked on March 23 at 1087bps versus 1988bps in November 2008.If credit losses are notably higher than what was experienced in 2008 then an informal form of regulatory forbearance may be allowed in which losses are slowly recognized to protect capital.Past precedence includes the Lesser Developed Country (“LDC”) crisis of the early and mid-1980s in which money center banks took 5-6 years to write-off large exposures to LDCs as a result of a collapse in oil and commodity prices.Capital and DividendsAs shown in Figure 5, US banks are much better capitalized today than at year-end 2006 immediately before GFC1 began.Ironically, the severely adverse scenario in the DFAST-mandated stress tests will be tested given the magnitude of the economic shut-down.All 18 large-cap banks that were subjected to the Fed’s 2019 test passed with leverage ratios bottoming over an eight-quarter period in the vicinity of 6-7%.Results can be found at the following link http://mer.cr/2JswW1d.A secondary issue is the outlook for common and preferred dividends.We expect first quarter and perhaps second quarter dividends to be paid; however, beginning in the third quarter dividend reductions and omissions are possible if not probable once a better estimate of losses is developed.Aside from written agreements with regulators that preclude payments we assume sub debt coupon payments will continue to be made because a missed coupon payment is an event of default unlike trust preferred securities that provided issuers 20 quarters to miss a payment without tripping a default.M&A—Down but Eventual UpturnFinally, M&A will become more imperative among commercial banks as NIMs go much lower.Executives of Truist Financial Corporation likely are relieved that the respective boards of directors of SunTrust and BB&T had the courage to combine to extract significant cost savings on what will be a lower run-rate of revenues than originally envisioned.As for investors and M&A participants, the challenge as always will be first to think about earning power rather than next year’s estimate and what is a reasonable valuation in terms of earning power.That, of course, is easier said than done when markets are rapidly repricing for a new order. Originally published in Bank Watch, March 2020.
Always Cash Flow and Earning Power
Always Cash Flow and Earning Power
We recognize what matters today for many funds is helping portfolio companies survive a sharp drop in revenues rather than discerning how much first quarter marks may fall from the last valuation.Scooter rental firm Lime reportedly is trying to raise capital at a valuation that is 80% below its last raise. Dilution and a valuation mark-down may be a bitter pill for existing investors, but for many money losing enterprises with dwindling cash such as Lime, it is unavoidable if the firm is to survive.
Tennessee Case Review
Tennessee Case Review
Tarver v. TarverAppeal from the Circuit Court for Shelby County January 16, 2019This divorce involved issues of property division and alimony, among others. Husband worked for his father’s railroad construction business (the “Company”) since turning 18 years old and eventually was named Vice President, a position which he held for the duration of the marriage. Wife was employed in the health insurance industry, however, stopped employment in 2009 and did not work outside of the home over the remainder of the marriage. Wife filed a complaint for divorce in January 2014, and the trial court entered an amended final divorce decree in July 2017.A key issue in the appeal involved Husband’s salary and payments received from the Company. For background, in 2006, Husband’s Grandfather purchased several unimproved parcels of land for a new business location. Grandfather titled these properties in his name and Husband’s name as joint tenants with rights of survivorship. In 2010, the Company began operating the new location from this property and began paying rent to Husband and Grandfather. Husband received a salary from the Company in addition to the rent payment income. The Company also covered several personal expenses for Husband and his family such as property taxes on the marital residence, uncovered medical expenses, family dining expenses, groceries, clothing, furniture, and travel expenses. After the divorce complaint was filed, Grandfather reduced annual rent payment from the Company to Husband from $180,000 per year to $2,400 per year. Grandfather also stopped paying for Husband’s health insurance policy and other expenses.During the trial, Wife retained a forensic accountant and economist to calculate Husband’s income for purposes of alimony and child support. Wife’s expert calculated Husband’s total annual income as either $285,993 or $216,958, dependent upon if rent was received at historical levels or a reduced rate based on fair market rental value. In the trial court determination, Husband’s income was set at $188,488 per year based on the fair market rental value calculated by Husband’s appraiser and value of personal expenses covered by the Company as calculated by Wife’s expert witness. The trial court ordered Husband to pay $1,332 in monthly child support and the children’s private school tuition. Wife was awarded alimony in futuro of $1,500 per month until the parties’ twins graduate from high school at which time the alimony would increase to $2,832 per month for ten additional years. As for the business interest valuation, the court was unable to conclusively determine whether Husband had any ownership interest in the Company. There was (potential) evidence that suggested a 10% ownership interest in the Company, but the weight of the evidence suggested that he did not in fact own any interest in the business.On appeal, Husband raised the issue of whether the trial court erred in determining Husband’s income for purposes of alimony and child support and in setting the amount of alimony, among other issues. According to the opinion, Husband did not present any analysis of the statutory factors to be considered when awarding alimony or include any discussion of the types of alimony. He did not provide any indication of what he thought an appropriate amount for his income would be. Husband rather argues that the trial court erred in “imputing to him the rental and other forms of income.” In its determination of Husband’s income and ability to pay, the trial court found it appropriate to consider Husband’s base salary of $78,500 in addition to the fair rental value of the property and the amount of personal expenses the Company paid for Husband. The Court notes that this is reasonable given that Husband received a salary of over $250,000 in the three years prior to the divorce. Ultimately, the Court found no error in the trial court’s determination of Husband’s monthly income.As shown in this case, the testimony of an expert witness can significantly assist in the court’s determination of need and ability to pay, as well as historical earnings and “true income” in its decisions regarding spousal support. An experienced forensic accountant can provide a detailed analysis of income that accounts for all relevant sources of income.Click here for the opinion.
AICPA Issues New Forensic Services Standard Effective January 1, 2020
AICPA Issues New Forensic Services Standard Effective January 1, 2020
Statements on Standards for Forensic Services (“SSFS No. 1”) are issued by the AICPA’s Forensic and Valuation Services Executive Committee. SSFS No. 1 provides guidance and establishes enforceable standards for members performing certain forensic and valuation services, specifically, for litigation and investigation engagements. These engagements are defined by SSFS No. 1 as follows:Litigation. An actual or potential legal or regulatory proceeding before a trier of fact or a regulatory body as an expert witness, consultant, neutral, mediator, or arbitrator in connection with the resolution of disputes between parties. The term litigation as used herein is not limited to formal litigation but is inclusive of disputes and all forms of alternative dispute resolution.Investigation. A matter conducted in response to specific concerns of wrongdoing in which the member is engaged to perform procedures to collect, analyze, evaluate, or interpret certain evidential matter to assist the stakeholders (for example, client, board of directors, independent auditor, or regulator) in reaching a conclusion on the merits of the concerns Prior to the issuance of these standards, litigation and investigation engagements were covered by the AICPA Statement on Standards for Consulting Services No. 1 and the AICPA Code of Professional Conduct. As the need for forensic services has grown and evolved, SSFS No. 1 serves to protect the public interest and increase the level of consistency across the profession. The issuance of SSFS No. 1 reflects a consolidation of relevant forensic services standards into one single standard. These forensic standards are effective for engagements accepted on or after January 1, 2020. Ensure that your hired expert, if applicable, is aware of these new requirements and is aware of the applicable standards for the engagement. To download the Statement on Standards for Forensic Services click here. Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, Volume 3, No. 1, 2020.
Why Involve a Financial Expert in Divorce Mediations
Why Involve a Financial Expert in Divorce Mediations
Most family law cases settle at mediation or prior to trial. For example, Tennessee requires that parties must attempt to settle their cases at mediation prior to granting a trial date. Considering both of these facts, when should a family law attorney involve a financial expert in divorce mediations? Most family law cases that require the use of a financial expert share some combination of the following: a high-dollar marital estate, complex financial issues present, business valuation(s) performed, and/or the need for tracing/classification of certain types of marital and separate assets. Of the family law cases that settle at mediation, most include motivated parties with experienced attorneys that have entered the mediation process properly organized and prepared to negotiate the various financial and parental aspects of the case.How a Financial Expert Can Assist a Family Law Attorney and Client at MediationDepending on numerous factors, attorneys require attendance of their financial expert for either the full mediation or for a particular session of the mediation. In addition, sometimes financial advisors are required to be available by telephone should issues arise. While having your financial advisor involved in the mediation in this way can be costly, a talented financial expert provides benefits to the client and the overall process to aid in its success. This author has participated in divorce mediations as a financial expert many times over the years and, as a result, has identified five ways a financial expert can be helpful to a family law attorney and client during mediations.Communicates Complex Financial Theory in an Understandable WayYour financial expert may have performed a business valuation that resulted in a report or some communication of value conclusions. An experienced financial expert that can communicate those conclusions and other complex financial issues in a clear and understandable manner to the client and the mediator is a priceless asset for your team. Because of this, often during mediation, that expert’s role evolves from a valuation vendor to a trusted advisor. The mediation process can be lengthy and includes significant down time where the attorney, client, and financial expert sit around the table together. It is during this time that the financial expert truly becomes a trusted advisor to the client and their attorney by providing data and expertise to assist in the decision-making process.Defends the Business ValuationIf a case involves a business valuation, there is usually contention around the value of the business. Often, valuation experts from each side are present at mediation and have the opportunity to speak to each other regarding their assumptions and disagreements on conclusions. A good financial expert helps quantify and elaborate on the key issues or differences in the valuations to the mediator to help bridge the gap in negotiations.Helps with Asset DivisionProperty division is one of the crucial issues that must be solved for a mediation to be successful. Property division is often thought of as a puzzle, putting pieces together based on value, transferability, and the motivations/desires of each party to own certain assets. While the attorneys have compiled the marital estate, a competent financial expert assists with real-time decision-making and changing variables through the use of a dynamic model of the marital estate. The flexibility of a dynamic model allows for shifting assets/liabilities from one party’s column to the other or calculating an equalization payment due to the illiquidity and lack of transferability of certain items.Provides Insight into Alimony CalculationsWhile financial experts don’t generally determine actual alimony amounts, they can assist clients and attorneys in understanding the amount, structure, and time value of the proposed alternatives. Often clients look for clarity in the amount either from the viewpoint of the payor (Can I afford to pay this monthly amount?) or from the viewpoint of the payee (Can I survive on this monthly amount?). Some structures of alimony also include accelerated amounts or prepayments of the entire amount. A financial expert aids in the decision-making by providing time value of money calculations to assist in the psychology of those financial decisions.Performs Separate/Marital or Retirement CalculationsFinancial experts often assist attorneys by performing tracing analyses and calculations to determine and/or quantify the separate and marital portion of certain assets. Assets often subject to dispute are retirement accounts that were owned prior to marriage. Some states, like Tennessee, recognize not only the balance of such accounts at the date of marriage, but also the appreciation of that amount during the marriage as separate assets. Financial experts are often asked to perform and explain these calculations at mediation to protect the integrity of the separate portion of those assets.ConclusionWhile the costs of mediation may be high, they pale in comparison to the costs of going to trial. Some states, including Tennessee, already require that cases attempt mediation, so why not head into mediation organized, prepared, and ready to do business? Consider involving a financial expert directly or indirectly to assist in that process and chances of settlement will certainly increase.
Early Impact of Coronavirus on the Trucking Industry
Early Impact of Coronavirus on the Trucking Industry

(Through March 31, 2020)

The trucking industry has hit several major speed bumps during the last several years. The required implementation of electronic logging devices (“ELDs”), changes to Hours-of-Service, and continuing driver shortages met with falling demand in 2019. The uncertainty introduced by the U.S.-China trade war resulted in lower demand. As of March 2020, COVID-19 is looking to be a significantly larger speed bump than the others.
Community Bank Valuation (Part 5): Valuing Controlling Interests
Community Bank Valuation (Part 5): Valuing Controlling Interests
To close our series on community bank valuation, we focus on concepts that arise when evaluating a controlling interest in another bank, such as arises in an acquisition scenario.  While the methodologies we described with respect to the valuation of minority interests in banks have some applicability, the M&A marketplace has developed a host of other techniques to evaluate the price to be paid, or received, in a bank acquisition.In the Valuing Minority Interests segment of this series, we discussed that valuation is a function of three variables:  a financial metric, risk, and growth.  From a buyer’s standpoint, the ultimate goal of a transaction, of course, is to enhance shareholder value, which would occur if the target entity can, on balance, enhance (or at least not detract from) the buyer’s financial metrics, risk, and growth.  This can be achieved in several ways:The direct earnings contribution of the target, or the accretion to the buyer’s earnings per share if the consideration consists of the buyer’s stock. In a bank M&A scenario, this accretion often derives from cost savings resulting from eliminating duplicative branches, back office functions, and the like.An acquisition can provide diversification benefits, such as different types of loans, additional geographic markets, or new funding sources. If these characteristics of the target reduce any concentrations held by the buyer, the acquirer’s overall risk may lessen.  However, numerous buyers have regretted entering lines of business or new markets via acquisition with which the buyer’s management team lacked the requisite familiarity.Accessing new markets or lines or business lines through acquisition gives the buyer more “looks” at new customers and transactions. For many banks, moving the needle on asset size or growth means looking outwardly beyond its existing markets or products, and the needle moves faster with an acquisition strategy versus a de novo market expansion strategy. These benefits are not without risks, though.  Some of the more significant acquisition risks include:Credit surprises. One or two unexpected losses usually do not affect the underlying rationale for a transaction, although it may create some uncomfortable conversations with investors regarding the buyer’s due diligence process.  A more significant risk is that the buyer’s risk tolerance differs from the seller’s approach, leading to a potentially significant disruption to future revenues as risk appetites are synchronized.  However, credit surprises often cannot be detached from the prevailing economic environment.  In a post mortem, many transactions closed in the 2006 time frame look ill-advised given the subsequent financial crisis.  Ultimately, factors outside the buyer’s control may have the most impact on post-transaction credit surprises.Cultural incompatibility. While sometimes difficult to detect from the outside, differences small and large between the cultures of the buyer and target can jeopardize the anticipated post-merger benefits.  More often than not, this is manifest in personnel issues.  Mergers are like chum in the water to competitors; buyers can expect competitors to look for any opening to attract personnel from the target bank.Similarities to Valuations of Minority InterestsThe previous installment of this series introduced the comparable company and discounted cash flow methods to bank valuations.  Both of these methods remain relevant in assessing a controlling interest in a bank, meaning an interest of sufficient size to dictate the direction of the bank.  Most often, controlling interest valuations arise in the context of an acquisition.Comparable Transactions MethodIn a controlling interest valuation, the comparable company method can be used.  However, the resulting values often would be adjusted by a “control premium”, which is measured by reference to the value of historical M&A transactions relative to a publicly-traded seller’s pre-deal announcement stock price.  This approach has the advantage of synchronizing the controlling interest valuation to current market conditions, which can be a drawback of the comparable transactions approach.More often, though, the comparable company method morphs into the comparable transactions method in an M&A setting.  Comparable M&A transactions can be identified by reference to geography, asset size, performance, time period, and the like.  Ideally, the transactions would be announced close in proximity to the date of the analysis; however, narrowly defining the financial or geographic criteria may mean accepting transactions announced over a longer time period.  The computation of pricing multiples, such as price/earnings or price/tangible book value, is facilitated by the widespread data availability regarding targets and the straightforward deal structures that usually allow analysts to identify the consideration paid to the sellers.  That is, contingent consideration, like earn-outs, is rare.  However, deal values are not always publicly reported for transactions involving privately-held institutions.While the comparable transactions approach is intuitive – by measuring what another buyer paid for another entity in an industry with thousands of relatively homogeneous participants – the most significant limitation of the comparable transactions method is created by market volatility.  Buyers’ ability to pay is correlated with their stock prices, and most bank M&A transactions include a stock component.  Deals struck at a certain price when bank stocks traded at 16x earnings would not occur at that same price if bank stocks trade at 12x earnings without crushing dilution to the buyer.  Thus, prices observed in bank M&A transactions need to be viewed in light of the market environment existing at the time of the transaction announcement data relative to the valuation date.Discounted Cash Flow MethodWe introduced the discounted cash flow method as a forward-looking approach to valuation reliant upon a projection of future performance.  In an M&A scenario, buyers usually start with the target’s stand-alone forecast, unaffected by the merger.  Acquirers then add layers to the forecast reflecting the impact of the transaction, such as:Expense savings. In a mature industry, realization of cost savings typically is a significant contributor to the transaction economics, with buyers often announcing cost savings equal to 30% to 40% of the target’s operating expenses.  These are derived primarily from eliminating duplicative branches, back office functions, and the like.  As the expense savings estimates increase, there often is a rising risk of customer attrition, with cuts going beyond the back office into activities more noticeable to customers, like branch hours or staffing. While buyers may expect a certain level of expense savings, it is not clear that buyers “credit” the seller with all of the expense savings the buyer takes the risk of achieving.  That is, the risk of achieving the expense savings effectively is split between the buyer and seller, with the favorability of the split in one direction or the other dictated by the negotiating power of the buyer and seller.Revenue enhancements. Buyers may expect some revenue enhancements to occur from the transaction, such as if the buyer has a more expansive product suite than the target or a higher legal lending limit.  However, buyers often loathe to include these in transaction modeling, and revenue enhancements are seldom reported as a driver of the EPS accretion expected from a transaction.Accounting adjustments. While fair value marks on assets acquired and liabilities assumed should not drive the economics of a transaction, they can affect the near-term earnings generated by the pro forma entity.  Therefore, buyers usually are keenly aware of the accounting implications of a transaction. One advantage of a discounted cash flow approach is that it allows the buyer to evaluate, for a given price, the level of earnings contribution needed from the target to justify that price.  While if you torture the numbers long enough they will confess to anything, as a statistics professor of mine was fond of saying, buyers should not lose sight of the reality of implementing the modeled business strategies.Additional ConsiderationsWhile the comparable transactions and discounted cash flow models crossover – no pun intended with another valuation approach we describe below – from a minority interest valuation environment, several valuation techniques are unique to M&A scenarios.Tangible Book Value Earn-BackAfter the financial crisis, investors became focused on the tangible book value per share earn-back period, sometimes to the point of seemingly ignoring other valuation metrics.  There are several ways to compute this, but the most common is the “crossover” method.  This requires two forecasts:The buyer’s tangible book value per share, absent the acquisitionThe buyer’s pro forma tangible book value per share with the target The analyst then calculates the number of periods between (a) the current date and (b) the date in the future when pro forma tangible book value per share exceeds stand-alone tangible book value per share.  Ultimately, the earn-back period is driven by factors like:The price/earnings or price/tangible book value multiples of the buyer’s stock relative to the multiples implied by the transaction valueThe extent of the merger cost synergies The tangible book value earn-back method also exacts a penalty for deal-related charges, as a higher level of deal charges extends the earn-back period.  From an income statement standpoint these charges often are treated as non-recurring and, in a sense, neutral to value.  However, these charges represent a real use of capital, which the TBV earn-back approach explicitly captures. Investors often look favorably upon transactions with earn-back periods of fewer than three years, while deals with earn-back periods exceeding five years often face a chilly reception in the market.  The earn-back period often is the real governor of deal pricing in the marketplace, which investors often like because it overcomes some limitations posed by EPS accretion analyses.Earnings per Share AccretionAs for the tangible book value per share earn-back period analysis, an EPS accretion analysis requires that the buyer forecast its EPS with and without the acquired entity.  EPS accretion simply is the change in EPS resulting from the transaction.  The attraction of this analysis lies in the correlation between EPS and value.  For a buyer trading at 12x earnings, a deal that is $0.10 accretive to EPS should enhance shareholder value by $1.20 per share, holding other factors constant.But how much accretion is appropriate?  Should a deal be 1% accretive to be a “good” deal, or 10% accretive?  It is difficult to answer this question in isolation.  This is especially true for a deal comprised largely of cash, where the buyer is forgoing the use of its capital for shareholder dividends or share repurchases in favor of an M&A transaction.  Recent deal announcements often indicate EPS accretion in the mid to high single digits with fully phased-in expense savings.Contribution AnalysisA contribution analysis is most useful in transactions involving primarily stock consideration.  It compares the buyer and seller’s ownership of the pro forma company with their relative contribution of earnings, loans, deposits, tangible equity, etc.  In a merger of equals transaction, where the two merger parties are roughly similar in size, this type of analysis is important in setting the final ownership percentages of the two banks.ConclusionA valuation of a controlling interest may take many forms; fortunately, the strengths of certain valuation methods described here offset the weaknesses of others (and vice versa).  Value ultimately is a range concept, meaning that there seldom is a single value at which a deal fails to make economic sense.  There are good deals, reasonable deals, and dumb deals.  Evaluating a number of valuation indications puts a buyer in the best position to slot a transaction into one of these three categories and to negotiate a deal that accomplishes its objective of enhancing financial performance, controlling risk, and developing new growth opportunities.  It is crucial to remember, though, that deals are tougher to execute in reality than in a spreadsheet.This concludes our multi-part series examining the analysis and valuation of financial institutions.  While approximately 5,000 banks exist, the industry is not monolithic.  Instead, significant differences exist in financial performance, risk appetite, and growth trajectory.  No valuation is complete without understanding the common issues faced by all banks – such as the interest rate environment or technological trends – but also the entity-specific factors bearing on financial performance, risk, and growth that lead to the differentiation in value observed in both the public and M&A markets.
2020 Fair Value Update and Outlook
2020 Fair Value Update and Outlook
A new year brings new opportunities and challenges in the world of fair value accounting. The Wall Street Journal’s recent coverage of the potential changes coming to goodwill impairment testing and the increased scrutiny around private equity portfolio company valuations signals that fair value issues continue to be top of mind for investors, companies, and regulators. Here are four key areas worth watching in 2020.Goodwill Impairment TestingThe FASB convened a roundtable in late 2019 to hear comments from registrants, investors, and the practitioner community about whether to continue the current system of annual goodwill impairment tests or shift to an amortization model over a set period of time. The responses have been mixed thus far, with some advocating instead for a trigger-based approach, perhaps over an initial period of time following an acquisition. The FASB has indicated that it will continue to discuss the comments during 2020 and no timeline for any changes has been set.Read our latest thoughts on technical issues surrounding goodwill impairment testing. >>Click HerePortfolio ValuationThe AICPA issued final guidance in 2019 for the valuation of portfolio company investments held by venture capital and private equity funds and other investment companies. The new accounting and valuation guidance lays out best practices for preparers, independent auditors, and valuation specialists, and we anticipate that firms and their stakeholders will increasingly expect that their fair value measurements will be done in compliance with the guide.Read more about some of the new concepts. >>Click HereSign up for our portfolio valuation newsletter. >>Click HereBusiness CombinationsAnother robust year for M&A transactions in 2019 meant an increased need for purchase price allocations and contingent consideration valuations. What may have been overlooked is that The Appraisal Foundation has now issued final guidance on the valuation of contingent consideration (earn-outs). One message from the new guidance: scenario-based methods are now being discouraged in favor of more complex, alternative approaches.Find out more in our recent whitepaper. >>Click HereEquity-Based CompensationThe increased scrutiny on PE/VC portfolio company investments inevitably spills over into the realm of valuing private company shares for equity-based compensation purposes. Indeed, the AICPA is in the process of drafting an update to its 2013 accounting and valuation guide on the topic. Another trend we’ve noticed is the increasing prevalence of equity grants with market condition vesting (such as performance of the issuer’s stock relative to a benchmark index) and issuances of incentive units / profit interests. These frequently require specialized fair value measurements.Read our latest whitepaper on equity-based compensation here. >>Click HereMercer Capital provides a full range of fair value measurement services and opinions that satisfy the scrutiny of auditors, the SEC, and other regulatory bodies. We have broad experience with fair value issues related to public and private companies, financial institutions, private equity firms, start-ups, and other closely held businesses. We also offer corporate finance consulting, financial due diligence, and quality of earnings analyses. National audit firms regularly refer financial reporting valuation assignments to Mercer Capital.
Jones v. Commissioner
Jones v. Commissioner
Estate of Aaron U. Jones v. Commissioner, T.C. Memo 2019-101 (August 19, 2019)EXECUTIVE SUMMARYIn May 2009, Aaron U. Jones made gifts to his three daughters, as well as to trusts for their benefit, of interests (voting and non-voting) from two family owned companies, Seneca Jones Timber Co. (SJTC), an S corporation, and Seneca Sawmill Co. (SSC), a limited partnership. These gifts were reported on his gift tax return with a total value of approximately $21 million. The IRS asserted a gift tax deficiency of approximately $45 million on a valuation of approximately $120 million. The Tax Court ruled that value was approximately $24 million, agreeing with the taxpayer’s appraiser.In this case, the Tax Court again concluded that “tax-affecting” earnings of an S corporation was appropriate in determining value under the income method (see also Mercer Capital’s review of the Kress decision). However, there are several other issues of interest in this case which we discuss further in this article.BACKGROUNDSSC was established in 1954 in Oregon as a lumber manufacturer.SSC operated two saw mills – its dimension and stud mill – delivering high quality products that were technologically advanced, allowing SSC to demand a higher price for its products than its competitors.Early in its history, SSC acquired most of its lumber from Federal timberlands.As environmental regulations increased, SSC’s access to Federal timberlands became at risk.Mr. Jones began purchasing timberland in the late 1980s and early 1990s when he became convinced that SSC could no longer rely on timber from Federal lands.SJTC was formed as an Oregon limited partnership in 1992 by the contribution of those timberlands purchased by Mr. Jones.SJTC’s timberlands were intended to be SSC’s inventory.Further, both SSC and SJTC maintained similar ownership groups, with SSC serving as the 10% general partner of SJTC.As of the date of valuation, SJTC held approximately 1.45 million board feet of timber over 165,000 acres in western Oregon, most of which was acquired in those initial purchases between 1989 and 1992.In 2008, approximately 89% of SJTC’s harvested logs were sold directly or indirectly to SSC and SJTC charged SSC the highest price that SSC paid for logs on the open market.GIFT TAX VALUATION In May 2009, Mr. Jones formed seven family trusts and made gifts to those trusts of SSC voting and nonvoting stock. He also made gifts to his three daughters of SJTC limited partner interests. Mr. Jones filed a timely gift tax return reporting values based upon appraisals prepared by Columbia Financial Advisors as shown in Figure 1 on the next page (Petitioner’s Value). The IRS notice of deficiency asserted values much higher.A petition was filed in the Tax Court by Mr. Jones in November 2013. Mr. Jones died in September 2014 and was replaced in the Tax Court proceeding by his estate and personal representatives. His estate then engaged another appraiser, Robert Reilly of Willamette Management Associates. Mr. Reilly was noted by the Court to have “performed approximately 100 business valuations of sawmills and timber product companies.”The original appraiser for the IRS was not noted in the case decision. At trial, the IRS’ valuation expert was Phillip Schwab who, per the Court, has “performed several privately held business valuations.” Additionally, the IRS was noted as having “previously reviewed and completed several business valuations, including several sawmills.”Their conclusions are presented in Figure 2.SUMMARY OF THE COURT’S DECISIONUltimately, the Court sided with Mr. Reilly’s conclusions of values for SSC and SJTC, along with his reported discount for lack of marketability (DLOM).The only distinction the Court made with Mr. Reilly’s DLOM was to correct a typo wherein the Appendix in Mr. Reilly’s report referred to a 30% DLOM, when in actuality, he had applied a 35% DLOM.A summary of the Court’s conclusions are shown in Figure 3.Item 1:SJTC’s Valuation Treatment as an Asset Holding Company or an Operating CompanyThe most critical issue surrounding the large difference in the valuation conclusions of SJTC for both experts centered on the valuation approach.The Court noted that “when valuing an operating company that sells products or services to the public, the company’s income receives the most weight.”Contrarily, the Court noted “when valuing a holding or investment company, which receives most of its income from holding debt securities, or other property, the value of the company’s assets will receive the most weight.”A question in this matter: is SJTC an Asset Holding Company or is it an Operating Company? Petitioners’ experts concluded that SJTC was an operating company and relied on an income approach utilizing projections from management. Conversely, one respondent’s experts concluded that SJTC is a natural resource holding company and relied on the asset approach utilizing real estate appraisal on the underlying timberlands.One of the critical factors the Court relied upon in determining its conclusion of the nature of SJTC’s operations centered on the Company’s operating philosophy.SJTC relied on a practice called “sustained yield harvesting” which didn’t harvest trees until they were 50 to 55 years old.As such, SJTC limited the harvest to the growth of its tree farms, even if selling the land or harvesting all of the trees would be the most profitable in the short-term.As discussed earlier, Mr. Jones began purchasing the timberlands and formed SJTC to supply the lumber to SSC for its long-term operations.The other argument the Court considered when determining how to treat SJTC was the limited partner units in question.Specifically, the subject blocks of limited partner units could not force the sale or liquidation of the underlying timberlands.Recall, SSC maintained the 10% general partner or controlling interest in SJTC and its focus remained on SSC’s continued operations as a sawmill company dependent on SJTC for supplying the majority of its lumber.Based on these factors, the Court concluded that SSC and SJTC “were so closely aligned and interdependent” that SJTC had to be valued based on its ongoing relationship with SSC, and thus, an income-based approach is more appropriate to value SJTC than a net asset value method.With this distinction, SJTC was more comparable to an operating company and less comparable to a traditional Timber Investment Management Organization (TIMO), Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), or other holding or investment company.Item 2:Reliance of Revised Management Projections in Valuation of SJTC and Impact of Economic ConditionsBoth of Petitioner’s experts relied on management projections in the underlying assumptions of their discounted cash flow (DCF) analyses to value SJTC.The original appraisal utilized management projections that were included in the prior annual report.For trial, Mr. Reilly utilized revised projections from April 2009 in his DCF analysis.Respondent challenged the use of the revised projections, despite the fact that their own second expert, Mr. Schwab, also used the revised projections in his guideline publicly traded company method.He chose to average the revised projections with those from the most recent annual report.The Court specifically noted the economic conditions at the date of valuation, highlighting the volatility during the recession years.As such, the Court determined the revised projections were the most current as of the date of valuation and included management’s opinion on the climate of their market and operations.The impact of the current economic conditions is also referenced by the Court in another key takeaway that we will discuss later.Item 3: Tax-Affecting Earnings in the Valuations of SJTCMr. Reilly computed after-tax earnings based on a 38% combined proxy for federal and state taxes. He further computed the benefit of the dividend tax avoided by the partners of SJTC, by estimating a 22% premium based on a study of S Corporation acquisitions. Respondent argued that since SJTC is a partnership, the partners would not be liable for tax at the entity level and there is no evidence that SJTC would become a C corporation. Therefore, respondent argued that the entity level tax rate should be zero.The Court concluded that Mr. Reilly’s tax-affecting “may not be exact, but is more complete and convincing than respondent’s zero tax rate.”  The Court also noted that the contention from respondent on this tax-affecting issue seems to be more of a “fight between lawyers” as the criticism appeared more in trial briefs than in expert reports. In fact, respondent’s expert, Mr. Schwab, argued that tax-affecting was improper because SJTC is a natural resources holding company and therefore its “rate of return is closer to the property rates of return” rather than challenging the lack of an actual entity level tax.Item 4:Market Approach for SJTCThe Court and respondent’s expert agreed with Mr. Reilly’s market approach for the valuation of SJTC.With little to no disagreement, the key takeaway here is on Mr. Reilly’s analysis.The Court detailed the analysis by mentioning that Mr. Reilly selected six guideline companies.The Court also cited the analysis and reasoning behind Mr. Reilly’s selection of pricing multiples slightly above the minimum indications of the guideline companies. Specifically, Mr. Reilly noted that SJTC’s revenue and profitability for the most recent twelve months before the valuation date were below those of the guideline companies.Thus, he accounted for these differences in financial fundamentals in his selection of the guideline pricing multiples. Item 5:Intercompany Debt between SJTC and SSCRespondent argued that Mr. Reilly erred by excluding the receivable held by SSC and the corresponding liability of SJTC. Further, respondent contended that Mr. Reilly’s treatment of SSC’s receivable from SJTC as an operating asset, rather than a non-operating asset, reduced the value of SSC under his income approach since a non-operating asset was not added to that value.On this issue, the Court weaved in earlier themes regarding the symbiotic relationship of the two companies and also the present economic conditions on the date of valuation to make its conclusion.The Court agreed with Mr. Reilly that the intercompany debt could be removed as a clearing account based on the idea that both companies operate as “simply two pockets of the same pair of pants.”The Court rejected respondent’s theories that this treatment of intercompany debt was only to avoid a negative asset valuation of SJTC and to reduce the value of SSC by not including the receivable as a non-operating asset.The Court referenced the relationship of the two companies and how the joint credit agreements of the two companies were secured by SJTC’s timberlands. The Court recognized that SSC could not have obtained separate third-party loans without the assistance of SJTC’s underlying timberlands as collateral. A further detail of the two companies’ relationship was revealed earlier in this decision. 2009 economic conditions also included subprime mortgage lending crises, particularly in the housing market. Around this time, SSC was anticipating a shift in the market from green lumber to dry lumber. Dry lumber production required SSC to build dry kilns and a boiler in a larger renewable energy plant project. Because of economic conditions, SSC was not able to obtain the construction loans to finance the renewable energy plant for itself or with another planned related entity. Instead, SSC was forced to borrow against the timberlands of SJTC.Ultimately, the Court viewed the two companies (SSC and SJTC) as a single business enterprise and concluded that Mr. Reilly’s treatment of the intercompany debt captured their relationship.Item 6:Valuation of SSC – Treatment of General Partner Interest in SJTCRespondent’s criticisms of Mr. Reilly consisted of three items:The treatment of Intercompany debt between the two companiesTax-affecting earningsThe treatment of SSC’s general partner interest. The Court handled the intercompany debt and tax-affecting treatment consistently with SJTC’s valuationMr. Reilly captured the value of SSC’s general partner interest in SJTC by projecting a portion of the expected partnership income in his projections. Specifically, Mr. Reilly projected $350,000 annually for SSC’s general partner interest based on an analysis of the 5-year and 10-year historical distributions from SJTC.Respondent claimed that this approach undervalued SSC’s general partner interest by not considering its control over SJTC and treating it as a non-operating asset to be valued by the net asset value method.The Court concluded that SSC’s general partner interest in SJTC is an operating asset again citing the single business enterprise relationship between the two companies.Further, the value of SSC’s general partner interest is best estimated by the expected distributions that it would expect to receive.Item 7:Buy-Sell Agreement ItemsAlthough not directly discussed and cited in any of the Court’s factors that we have discussed so far, the decision did highlight certain elements from SSC’s and SJTC’s buy-sell agreements as we noted.Both buy-sell agreements contained language that prohibited the sale of the entity or transfers within the units/shares that would jeopardize the current tax status of the Companies as an S Corporation (SSC) and Limited Partnership (SJTC), respectively.Both agreements called for discounts for lack of control, lack of marketability, and lack of voting rights of an assignee (where applicable) to be considered. Finally, both agreements stated that the valuations of the entities should consider the anticipated cash distributions allocable to the units/shares.CONCLUSIONSWhile the Court’s decision to allow the tax-affecting of earnings (like in the Kress case) in the valuations of SSC and SJTC will dominate the headlines, there are additional takeaways from the case that impact the valuations.Of note, the disparity in experience of the appraisers involved, consideration of the current economic conditions, and the purpose and nature of the business relationship of the two companies seemed to influence the Court’s conclusions.Finally, the distinction and eventual valuation treatment of SJTC as an operating company rather than a holding company was of particular interest to us.
Do Win/Loss Records Affect Major League Baseball Revenues and Attendance?
Do Win/Loss Records Affect Major League Baseball Revenues and Attendance?
Many people believe that the win/loss ratio doesn’t have much effect on revenues and attendance.  They believe the local team has loyal fans who will attend games despite their performance.   We investigate that assumption in this article focusing on Major League Baseball (MLB) by sampling a top tier, middle tier, and lowest tier team.We analyze average season attendance of the league over the last five years and then track the three-team sample’s attendance and on-field performance.We have selected three teams to review their attendance vs. winning percentage, along with their playoff and World Series performance.  Our sample consists of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Texas Rangers and the Miami Marlins.As a reference point, average season attendance for the MLB reached a peak in recent years at 2.5 million in 2007 for the American League and 2.8 million for the National League.  The MLB averages dropped in the subsequent years and were finally steady around 2.3 million for the A.L. and 2.5 million for the N.L. during the next ten years. League attendance average declined, however, by 140,000 to 2,161,376 in 2018 and 2,039,521 in 2019.Los Angeles DodgersThe Dodgers attendance in 2007 was 3.9 million and stayed above 3.4 million for three years.  This figure dropped to 2.9 million in 2011 yet returned to 3.7 million by 2013.  Recently, season attendance has slowly climbed to approximately 4 million in 2019, marking an all-time team high.This growth was greatly influenced by the Dodgers being in the World Series in 2017 and 2018, which helped push 2019 to a record high attendance.  (See Table 1 for details)Texas RangersThe Texas Rangers have experienced a different attendance history.  They peaked in 2012 at 3.5 million after playing in the World Series in 2011 and the playoffs in 2012.  The team didn’t make the playoffs in 2013 and 2014 and attendance dropped to 3.2 million and 2.7 million, respectively.  The win/loss record dropped significantly from about 59% in 2011 to 41% in 2014.Attendance followed the same trend by dropping 450,000 to 2.7 million in 2014.  Even when the team made the playoffs in 2015, attendance fell to 2.5 million as a result of their poor record in 2014. The team’s 2015 win/loss ratio was near 59% and they made the playoffs, but not the World Series. In the following year, attendance increased to 2.7 million.  The win/loss ratio dropped below 50% in 2017 to 2019 and they missed the playoffs each year.  As a result, attendance dropped steadily to 2.1 million in 2019, a decrease of over 1.3 million people, or 38% from their peak in 2012.  (SeeTable 2 for details)Miami MarlinsThe Miami Marlins clearly represent the bottom tier of the MLB in many categories.  They built a brand-new state of the art ballpark in 2012 and attendance averaged about 1.7 million from 2014 to 2017.  In the fall of 2017, the Derek Jeter group bought the team.  and the new owners quickly traded notable high-priced players to other teams, including the NY Yankees, in order to reduce their losses.  The new ownership group was hoping to stabilize attendance near the 1.7 million mark, but instead dropped to 811,000 in both 2018 and 2019;  367,000 less than the next worst attendance in MLB, which was Tampa Bay, and about 500,000 less than the third worst team, the Baltimore Orioles.   (SeeTable 3 for details)ConclusionWithout attempting to do a statistical analysis, what does the data mean?  Yes, the quality of the players counts – especially if the win/loss record corresponds, however, winning percentage also impacts the ability to get into the playoffs and ultimately the World Series. It is clear from our experience and from the three-team sample that win/loss ratios have a major effect on MLB home stadium attendance.
Quality Of Earnings Study: The “Combine” to Help Harvest Top FinTech Acquisition Targets
Quality Of Earnings Study: The “Combine” to Help Harvest Top FinTech Acquisition Targets
As we find ourselves at the end of the decade, many pundits are considering what sector will be most heavily influenced by the disruptive impact of technology in the 2020s. Financial services and the potential impact of FinTech is often top of mind in those discussions. As I consider the potential impact of FinTech in the coming decade, I am reminded of the Mark Twain quote that “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”A historical example of technological progress that comes to mind for me is the combine, a machine designed to efficiently harvest a variety of grain crops. The combine derived its name from being able to combine a number of steps in the harvesting process. Combines were one of the most economically important innovations as they saved a tremendous amount of time and significantly reduced the amount of the population that was engaged in agriculture while still allowing a growing population to be fed adequately. For perspective, the impact on American society from the combine’s invention was tremendous as roughly half of the U.S. population was involved in agriculture in the 1850s and today that number stands at less than 1%.As I ponder the parallels between the combine’s historical impact and FinTech’s potential, I consider that our now service based economy is dependent upon financial services, and FinTech offers the potential to radically change the landscape. From my perspective, the coming “combine” for financial services will be not from one source or solution, but from a wide range of FinTech companies and traditional financial institutions that are enhancing efficiency and lowering costs across a wide range of financial services (payments, lending, deposit gathering, wealth management, and insurance). While this can be viewed as a negative by some traditional incumbents in the space, it may be a saving grace as we start the decade with the lingering effects of a prolonged historically low and difficult interest rate environment, and many traditional players are still laden with their margin dependent revenue streams and higher cost, inefficient legacy systems. Similar to the farmers adopting higher tech planting and harvesting methods through innovations like the combine, traditional incumbents like bankers, RIAs, and insurance companies will have to determine how to selectively build, partner, or acquire FinTech talent and companies to enhance their profitability and efficiency. Private equity and venture capital investors will also continue to be attracted to the FinTech sector given its potential.As the years in the 2020s march on, FinTech acquirers and traditional incumbents face a daunting task to evaluate the FinTech sector. Reports vary but generally indicate that over 10,000 FinTechs have sprouted up across the globe in the last decade and separating the highly valued, high potential business models (i.e, the wheat) from the lower valued, low potential ones (i.e., the chaff) will be challenging. Factor in the complicated nature of the regulatory/compliance overlay and investors, acquirers, and traditional incumbents face the daunting task of analyzing the FinTech sector and the companies within it.As a solution to this potential problem, the efficient operations and historical lessons learned in the agricultural sector from the combine may again provide insights for buyers of FinTech companies to learn from. For example, the major professional sports leagues in the U.S. all have events called combines where they put prospective players through drills and tests to more accurately assess their potential. In these situations, the team is ultimately the buyer or investor and the player is the seller. Pro scouts are most interested in trying to project how that player might perform in the future for their team. While a player may have strong statistics in college, this may not translate to their future performance at the next level so it’s important to dig deeper and analyze more thoroughly. For the casual fan and the players themselves, it can be frustrating to see a productive college player go undrafted while less productive players go highly drafted because of their stronger performance at the combine.While not quite as highly covered by the fans and media, a similar due diligence and analysis process should take place when acquirers examine a FinTech acquisition target. This due diligence process can be particularly important in a sector like FinTech where the historical financial statements may provide little insight into future growth and earnings potential for the underlying company. One way that acquirers are able to better assess potential targets is through a process similar to a sports combine called a quality of earnings study (QoE). In this article, we give a general overview of what a QoE is as well as some important factors to consider.What is a Quality of Earnings Study? A QoE study typically focuses on the economic earning power of the target. A QoE combines a number of due diligence processes and findings into a single document that can be vitally helpful to a potential acquirer in order to assess the key elements of a target’s valuation: core earning power, growth potential, and risk factors. Ongoing earning power is a key component of valuation as it represents an estimate of sustainable earnings and a base from which long term growth can be expected. This estimate of earning power typically considers trying to assess the quality of the company’s historical and projected future earnings. In addition to assessing the quality of the earnings, buyers should also consider the relative riskiness of those earnings as well as potential pro-forma synergies that the target may bring in an acquisition.Analysis performed in a QoE study can include the following:Profitability Procedures. Investigating historical performance for impact on prospective cash flows. EBITDA analysis can include certain types of adjustments such as: (1) Management compensation add-back; (2) Non-recurring items; (3) Pro-forma adjustments/synergiesCustomer Analysis. Investigating revenue relationships and agreements to understand the impact on prospective cash flows. Procedures include: (1) Identifying significant customer relationships; (2) Gross margin analysis; and (3) Lifing analysisBusiness and Pricing Analysis. Investigating the target entities positioning in the market and understanding the competitive advantages from a product and operations perspective. This involves: (1) Interviews with key members of management; (2) Financial analysis and benchmarking; (3) Industry analysis; (4) Fair market value assessments; and (5) Structuring These areas are broad and may include a wide array of sub-areas to investigate as part of the QoE study. Sub-areas can include:Workforce / employee analysisA/R and A/P analysisIntangible asset analysisA/R aging and inventory analysisLocation analysisBilling and collection policiesSegment analysisProof of cash and revenue analysisMargin and expense analysisCapital structure analysisWorking capital analysis For high growth technology companies where the analysis and valuation is highly dependent upon forecast projections, it may also be necessary to analyze other specific areas such as:The unit economics of the target. For example, a buyer may want a more detailed estimate or analysis of the some of the target’s key performance indicators such as cost of acquiring customers (CAC), lifetime value of new customers (LTV), churn rates, magic number, and annual recurring revenue/profit.A commercial analysis that examines the competitive environment, go-to-market strategy, and existing customers perception for the company and its products. This article discusses a number of considerations that buyers may want to assess when performing due diligence on a potential FinTech target. While the ultimate goal is to derive a sound analysis of the target’s earning power and potential, there can be a number of different avenues to focus on, and the QoE study should be customized and tailored to the buyer’s specific concerns as well as the target’s unique situations. It is also paramount for the buyer’s team to keep the due diligence process focused, efficient, and pertinent to their concerns. For sellers, a primary benefit of a QoE can be to help them illustrate their future potential and garner more interest from potential acquirers. Mercer Capital’s focused approach to traditional quality of earnings analysis generates insights that matter to potential buyers and sellers. Leveraging our valuation and advisory experience, our quality of earnings analyses identify and focus on the cash flow, growth, and risk factors that impact value. Collaborating with clients, our senior staff identifies the most important areas for analysis, allowing us to provide cost-effective support and deliver qualified, objective, and supportable findings. Our goal is to understand the drivers of historical performance, unit economics of the target, and the key risk and growth factors supporting future expectations. Our methods and experience provide our clients with a fresh and independent perspective on the quality, stability, and predictability of future cash flows. Our methodologies and procedures are standard practices executed by some of the most experienced analysts in the FinTech industry. Our desire is to provide clients with timely and actionable information to assist in capital budgeting decisions. Combined with our industry expertise, risk assessment, and balanced return focus, our due diligence and deal advisory services are uniquely positioned to provide focused and valued information on potential targets. Originally published in Mercer Capital's Value Focus: FinTech Industry Newsletter,  Year-End 2019.
2020 Outlook: Good Fundamentals, Moderate Valuations but Limited EPS Growth
2020 Outlook: Good Fundamentals, Moderate Valuations but Limited EPS Growth
Bank fundamentals, which are discussed in more detail below, did not change a lot between 2018 and 2019; however, bank stock prices and the broader market posted strong gains as shown in Table 1 following a short but intense bear market that bottomed on Christmas Eve 2018. Our expectation is that 2020 will not see much change in fundamentals either, while bank stocks will require multiples to expand to produce meaningful gains given our outlook for flattish earnings.Fed Drives the Market ReboundThe primary culprit for the 4Q18 plunge and subsequent 2019 rebound in equity prices was the Fed, which has a propensity to hike until something breaks according to a long standing market saw. A year-ago the Fed had implemented its ninth hike in short-term policy rates that it controls despite the vocal protests of the President and, more importantly, the credit markets as reflected in widening credit spreads and falling yields on Treasury bonds and forward LIBOR rates.One can debate how much weight the Fed places on equity markets, but it has always appeared to us that they pay close attention to credit market conditions. When the high yield bond and leverage loan markets shutdown in December 2018, the Fed was forced to pivot in January and back away from rate hikes after forecasting several for 2019 just a few months earlier. Eventually, the Fed was forced to reduce short rates three times and resume expansion of its balance sheet in the fourth quarter after halting the reduction (“quantitative tightening”) in mid-year.Markets lead fundamentals. Among industry groups bank stocks are “early cyclicals,” meaning they turn down before the broader economy does and tend to turn up before other sectors when recessions bottom. One take from the price action in banks is that the economy in 2020 will be good enough that credit costs will not rise dramatically. Otherwise, banks would not have staged as strong a rebound as occurred.Likewise, somewhat tighter spreads on B- and BB-rated high yield bonds relative to U.S. Treasuries (option adjusted spread, “OAS”) since the Fed eased is another data point that credit in 2020 will not see material weakening. The stable-to-tighter spreads in the high yield market today can be contrasted with 2007 when OAS began to widen sharply even after the Fed began to cut rates and the U.S. Treasury curve steepened as measured by the spread between the yield on the two-year and 10-year notes.Bank FundamentalsBank fundamentals are in good shape even though industry net income for the first three quarters of 2019 increased nominally to $181 billion from $178 billion in the comparable period in 2018. On a quarterly basis, third quarter earnings of $57 billion were below the prior ($63 billion) and year ago ($62 billion) quarters. Not surprisingly, earnings pressure emerged during the year as what had been expanding NIMs during 2017 and 2018 began to contract due the emergence of a flat-to-inverted yield curve, a reduction in 30/90-day LIBOR which serves as a base rate for many loans, and continuation of a highly competitive market for deposits. Also, loan growth slowed in 2019—especially for larger institutions.As shown in Table 2, core metrics such as asset quality and capital are in good shape, while profitability remains high. Our outlook for 2020 is for profitability to ease slightly due to incrementally higher credit costs and a lower full year NIM although stabilization seems likely during 2H20. Nonetheless, ROCE in the vicinity of 10- 11% and ROTCE of 13-14% for large community and regional banks seems a reasonable expectation.EPS growth will be lacking, however. Wall Street consensus EPS estimates project essentially no change for large community and regional banks, while super regional banks are projected to be slightly higher at 3%. Money center banks (BAC, C, GS, JPM, MS, and WFC) reflect about 6% EPS growth, which seems high to us even though the largest banks tend to be more active in repurchasing shares relative to smaller institutions where excess capital is allocated to acquisitions, too.The Fed—Presumably on HoldIn the December 2018 issue of Bank Watch we opined it was hard to envision the Fed continuing to raise short-term rates even though the Fed forecasted further hikes. We further cited the potential for rate cuts. Our reason for saying so was derived from the market rather than economists because intermediate- and long-term rates had decidedly broken an uptrend and were heading lower.As the calendar turns to 2020, the Fed has indicated no changes are likely for the time being. The market reflects a modest probability that one more cut will be forthcoming, but to do so in an election year probably would require long rates to fall enough to meaningfully invert the Treasury curve unlike the nominal inversion which occurred in mid-2019.As it relates to bank fundamentals, the impact on NIMs will depend upon individual bank balance sheet compositions. Broadly, however, a scenario of no rate hikes implies NIMs should stabilize in 2H20 as higher cost CDs and wholesale borrowings rollover at lower rates. Also, if the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet (presently it is doing so through only purchasing T-bills through support of the repo market) then assets may remain well bid. All else equal, stable to rising prices in the capital markets usually are supportive of credit quality within the banking system.Bank Valuations—Rebound from Year-End 2018 “Bargains”A synopsis of bank valuations is presented in Table 3 in which current valuations for the market cap indices are compared to year-end 2018 and year-end 2017 as well as multi-year medians based upon daily observations over the past 20 years. The table illustrates the important concept of reversion to the mean. Valuations were above average as of year-end 2017 due to policy changes that occurred with the November 2016 national elections that culminated with the enactment of corporate tax reform in late 2017. One year later valuations were “cheap” as a result of the then bear market that reflected concerns the Fed would hike the U.S. into a recession. Despite the rebound in prices and valuation multiples during 2019, bank stocks enter 2020 with moderate valuations provided the market (and us) have not miscalculated and earnings are poised to fall sharply. Money center and super-regional banks are trading for median multiples of about 10x and 11x consensus 2020 earnings. Regional and large community banks, which include many acquisitive banks, trade for respective median multiples of 12x and 13x. An important point is that valuation is not a catalyst to move a stock; rather, valuation provides a margin of safety (or lack thereof) and thereby can provide additional return over-time as a catalyst such as upward (or downward) earnings revisions can cause a multiple to expand or contract. Looking back to last year one might surmise the rebound in valuations reflects the market’s view that the Fed avoided hiking the U.S. into recession. Bank M&A—2020 Potentially a Great yearM&A activity has been robust with bank and thrift acquisitions since 2014 exceeding 4% of the industry charters at the beginning of each year. It appears once the final tally is made, upwards of 275 institutions will have been acquired in 2019, which would represent almost 5% of the industry. With only a handful of new charters granted since the financial crisis the industry is shrinking fast. As of Sept. 30, there were 5,256 U.S. banks and thrifts, down from about 18,000 in 1985.While activity was steady at a high level in 2019, the most notable development was market support for four merger-of-equals (“MOE”) in which the transaction value exceeded $1.0 billion. The largest transaction closed Dec. 9 when BB&T Corp. and SunTrust merged to form Truist Financial Corp. Others announced this year include tie-ups between TCF Financial Corp./Chemical Financial Corp., First Horizon National Corp./IBERIABANK Corp., and Texas Capital Bancshares Inc./Independent Bank Group Inc. Although not often pursued, we believe MOEs are a logical transaction that if well executed provide significant benefits to community bank shareholders.The national average price/tangible book multiple eased to 157% from 173% in 2018, while the median price/earnings (trailing 12 months as reported) declined to 16.8x from 25.4x (~21x adjusted for the impact of corporate tax reform). The reduction was not surprising given low public market valuations that existed at the beginning of 2019 because acquisition multiples track public market multiples with a lag.We see 2020 shaping up as a potentially great year for bank M&A. The backdrop is an M&A trifecta: buyer and seller earnings will likely be flattish primarily due to sluggish loan growth and lower NIMs; asset quality is stable; and stock prices are higher, meaning buyers can offer better prices (but less value) to would-be sellers. Also, the capital markets remain wide open for banks to issue subordinated debt and preferred equity at very low rates to fund cash consideration not covered by existing excess capital.Summing it UpThis year appears to be the opposite of late 2018 in which a strong market for bank stocks is predicting continuation of solid fundamentals and possibly better than expected earnings. Nonetheless, an environment in which earnings growth is expected to be modest at best likely will result in limited gains in bank stocks given the rebound in valuations that occurred in 2019.Originally published in Bank Watch, December 2019.
Lessons from Recent Engagements
Lessons from Recent Engagements
In our family law practice, we serve as valuation and financial forensic expert witnesses. There is typically another valuation expert on “the other side.” In several recent engagements, the following topics, posed as questions here, were raised as points of contention. We present them here to help the reader, whether you are a family law attorney or a party to a divorce, understand certain valuation-related issues that may be raised in your matter.Should Your Expert Witness Be a Valuation or Industry Expert?The financial and business valuation portion of a litigation is often referred to as a “battle of the experts” because you have at least two valuation experts, one for the plaintiff and one for the defendant. Hopefully your valuation expert has both valuation expertise and industry expertise. While industry expertise is not necessary in every engagement, it can be helpful in understanding the subtleties of the business in question.Does the Appraisal Discuss Local Economic Conditions and Competition Adequately?Most businesses are dependent on the climate of the national economy as well as the local economy. For businesses who have a national client base, the health of the national economy trumps any local or regional economy. However, many of the businesses we value in divorce engagements are more affected by changes in their local and regional economy. It’s important for a business appraiser to understand the difference and to be able to understand the effects of the local/regional economy on the subject business. There is also a fine balance between understanding and acknowledging the impact of that local economy without overstating it. Often some of the risks of the local economy are already reflected in the historical operating results of the business.If There Are Governing Corporate Documents, What Do They Say About Value, and Should They Be Relied Upon?Many of the corporate entities involved in litigation have sophisticated governance documents that include Operating Agreements, Buy-Sell Agreements, and the like. These documents often contain provisions to value the stock or entity through the use of a formula or process. Whether or not these agreements are to be relied upon in whole or in part in a litigated matter is not always clear. In litigated matters, focus will be placed on whether the value concluded from a governance document represents fair market value, fair value, or some other standard of value.Two common questions that arise concerning these agreements are:Has an indication of value ever been concluded using the governance document in the history of the business (in other words, has the business been valued using the methodology set out in the document)?Have there been any transactions, buy-ins, or redemptions utilizing the values concluded in a governance document? These are important questions to consider when determining the appropriate weight to place on a value indication from a governance document. In divorce matters, the out-spouse is often not bound by the value indicated by the governance document since they were not a signatory to that particular agreement. It is always important to discuss this issue with your attorney.Have There Been Prior Internal Transactions of Company Stock and at What Price?Similar to governance documents, internal transactions are a possible valuation data point. A good appraiser will always ask if there have been prior transactions of company stock and, if so, how many have occurred, when did they occur, and at what terms did they occur? There is no magic number, but as with most statistics, more transactions closer to the date of valuation can often be considered as better indicators of value than fewer transactions further from the date of valuation.An important consideration in internal transactions is the motivation of the buyer and seller. If there have been multiple internal transactions, appraisers have to determine the appropriateness of which transactions to possibly include and which to possibly exclude in their determination of value. Without an understanding of the motivation of the parties and of the specific facts of the transactions, it becomes trickier to include some, but exclude others. The more logical conclusion would be to include all of the transactions or exclude all of the transactions with a stated explanation.What Do the Owner’s Personal Financial Statements Say and Are They Important?Most business owners have to submit personal financial statements as part of any guarantee on financing. The personal financial statement includes a listing of all of the assets and liabilities of the business, typically including some value assigned to the value of the business. In divorce matters, these documents are important as yet another valuation data point.One view of the value placed on a business in an owner’s personal financial statement is that no formal valuation process was used to determine that number; so, at best, it’s a thumb in the air, blind estimate of value. The opposing view is the individual submitting the personal financial statement is attesting to the accuracy and reliability of the financial figures contained in document under penalty of perjury. Further, some would say that the value assigned to the business has merit because the business owner is the most informed person regarding the business, its future growth opportunities, competition, and the impact of economic and industry factors on the business.For an appraiser, it’s not a good situation to be surprised by the existence of these documents. A good business appraiser will always ask for them. The business value indicated in a personal financial statement should be viewed in light of value indications under other methodologies and sources of information. At a minimum, personal financial statements may require the expert to ask more questions or use other factors, such as the national and local economy, to explain any difference in values over time.Do You Understand Normalizing Adjustments and Why They Are Important?Normalizing adjustments are adjustments made for any unusual or non-recurring items that do not reflect normal business operations. During the due diligence interview with management, an appraiser should ask if the business has non-recurring or discretionary expenses and are personal expenses of the owner being paid by the business? Comparing the business to industry profitability data can help the appraiser understand the degree to which the business may be underperforming.An example of how normalizing adjustments work is helpful. If a business has historically reported 2% EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and the industry data suggests 5%, the financial expert must analyze why there is a difference between these two data points and determine if there are normalizing adjustments to be applied. Let’s use some numbers to illustrate this point. For a business with revenue of $25 million, historical profitability at 2% would suggest EBITDA of $500,000. At 5%, expected EBITDA would be $1,250,000, or an increase of $750,000. In this case, the financial expert should analyze the financial statements and the business to determine if normalization adjustments are appropriate which, when made, will reflect a more realistic figure of the expected profitability of the business without non-recurring or personal owner expenses.ConclusionThere are many other issues a valuation expert faces in divorce matters; however, the issues presented here were top of mind for us because they were present in recent engagements. Valuation can be complex. Serving as an expert witness can be challenging as well. However, having an expert with valuation expertise and experience is an advantageous combination in divorce matters. In future articles, we’ll discuss other issues of importance to hopefully help you become a more knowledgeable user of valuation services. In the meantime, if you have a valuation or financial forensics issue, feel free to contact us to discuss it in confidence.Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, Third Quarter 2019.
Community Bank Valuation (Part 4): Valuing Minority Interests
Community Bank Valuation (Part 4): Valuing Minority Interests
In the June 2019 BankWatch we began a multi-part series exploring the valuation of community banks. The first segment introduced key valuation drivers: various financial metrics, growth, and risk. The second and third editions described the analysis of bank and bank holding company financial data with an emphasis on gleaning insights that affect the valuation drivers. We now conclude our series by assembling these pieces into the final product, a valuation of a specific bank.While it would streamline the valuation process, there is no single value for a bank that is applicable to every conceivable scenario giving rise to the need for a valuation. Instead, valuation is context dependent. This edition of the series focuses on the valuation of minority interests in banks, which do not provide the ability to dictate control over the bank’s operations. The next edition focuses on valuation considerations applicable to controlling interests in banks that arise in acquisition scenarios.Valuation ApproachesValuation specialists identify three broad valuation approaches within which several valuation methods exist:The Asset Approach develops a value for a bank’s common equity based on the difference between its assets and liabilities, both adjusted to market value. This approach is less common in practice, given analysts’ focus on banks’ earnings capacity and market pricing data. In theory, a rigorous application of the asset approach would require determining the value of the bank’s intangible assets, such as its customer relationships, which introduces considerable complexity.The Market Approach provides indications of value by reference to actual transactions involving securities issued by comparable institutions. The obvious advantage of this approach is the coherence between the goal of the valuation itself (the derivation of market value) and the data used (market transactions). The disadvantage, though, is that perfectly comparable market data seldom exists. While we will not cover the topic in this article, transactions in the subject bank’s common stock, which often occur for privately held banks due to their frequently widespread ownership and stature in the community, may serve as another indication of value under the market approach.The Income Approach includes several methods that convert a cash flow stream (such as earnings or dividends) into a value. Two broad subsets of the income approach exist – single period capitalization methods and discounted cash flow methods. For bankers, a single period capitalization is analogous to a net operating income capitalization in a real estate appraisal; it requires an earnings metric and a capitalization multiple. Alternatively, bank valuations often use projection-based methodologies that convert a future stream of benefits into a value. The strengths and weaknesses of a projection-based methodology derive from a commonality – it requires a forecast of future performance. While creating such a forecast is consistent with the forward-looking nature of investor returns, predicting the future is, as they say, difficult. The following discussion focuses on the valuation methodologies used most commonly for banks, the comparable company method and the discounted cash flow method.Comparable Company MethodBank analysts are awash in data, both regarding banks’ financial performance but also market data regarding publicly traded banks’ valuation. Table 1 presents a breakdown by trading market of the number of listed banks in November 2019. To narrow this surfeit of comparable company data, analysts often screen the publicly traded bank universe based on characteristics such as the following: Size, such as total assets or market capitalizationProfitability, such as return on assets or return on equityLocationAsset qualityRevenue mix, such as the proportion of revenue from loan sales or asset management feesBalance sheet composition, such as the proportion of loans or dependence on wholesale fundingTrading market or volume Even after applying screens similar to the preceding, it remains doubtful that the publicly traded banks will exactly mirror the subject bank’s characteristics. This is especially true when valuing smaller community banks, as a relatively limited number of publicly traded banks exist with assets of less than $500 million that trade in more liquid markets. Ultimately, the analyst must determine an appropriate valuation multiple based on the subject bank’s perceived growth opportunities and risk attributes relative to the public companies. For example, analysts can compare the subject bank’s historical and projected EPS growth rates against the public companies’ EPS growth rates, with a materially lower growth outlook for the subject bank suggesting a lower pricing multiple. Part 1 of this community bank valuation series described various valuation metrics applicable to banks, most prominently earnings and tangible book value. It is important to reiterate that while bankers and analysts often reference price/tangible book value multiples, the earning power of the institution drives its value. Chart 1 illustrates this point, showing that price/tangible book value multiples rise along with the core return on tangible common equity. This chart includes banks traded on the NASDAQ, NYSE, or NYSEAM with assets between $1 and $10 billion. Since banking is a more mature industry, bank price/earnings multiples tend to vary within a relatively tight range. Chart 2 provides some perspective on historical price/earnings and price/tangible book value multiples, which includes banks traded on the NASDAQ, NYSE, or NYSEAM with assets between $1 and $10 billion and a return on core tangible common equity between 5% and 15%. Trading multiples in the first several years of the analysis may be distorted by recessionary conditions, while the multiples reported for 2016 and 2017 were exaggerated by optimism regarding the potential, at that time, for tax and regulatory reform. The diminished multiples at yearend 2018 and September 30, 2019 reflect a challenging interest rate environment, marked by a flat to inverted yield curve, and the possibility for rising credit losses in a cooling economy. Discounted Cash Flow MethodThe discounted cash flow (DCF) method relies upon three primary inputs:A projection of cash flows distributable to investors over a finite time period » A terminal, or residual, value representing the value of all cash flows occurring after the end of the finite forecast periodA discount rate to convert the discrete cash flows and terminal value to present value1. Cash FlowFirst, a few suggestions regarding projections:For a financial institution, projecting an income statement without a balance sheet usually is inadvisable, as this obscures important linkages between the two financial statements. For example, the bank’s projected net interest income growth may require a level of loan growth not permitted by the bank’s capital resources.Including a roll-forward of the loan loss reserve illustrates key asset quality metrics, such as the ratios of loan charge-offs to loans and loan loss reserves to loans. The level of charge-offs should be assessed against the bank’s historical performance and the economic outlook.Key financial metrics, both for the balance sheet and income statement, should be assessed against the bank’s historical performance and peer banks.While projections can be prepared on a consolidated basis, we prefer developing separate projections for the bank and its holding company. This makes explicit the relationships between the two entities, such as the holding company’s reliance on the bank for cash flow. For leveraged holding companies, a sources and uses of funds schedule is useful. In preparing a DCF analysis for a bank, the most meaningful cash flow measure is distributable tangible equity. The analyst sets a threshold ratio of tangible common equity/tangible assets or another regulatory capital ratio based on management’s expectations, regulatory requirements, and/or peer and publicly traded comparable company levels. Equity generated by the bank above this target level is assumed to be distributed to the holding company. After determining the holding company’s expenses and debt service requirements, the remaining amount represents shareholder cash flow, which then is captured in the DCF valuation analysis.2. Discount RateFor a financial institution, the discount rate represents the entity’s cost of equity. Outside the financial services industry, analysts most commonly employ a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) as the discount rate, which blends the cost of the company’s debt and equity funding. However, banks are unique in that most of their funding comes from deposits, and the cost of deposits does not rise along with the entity’s risk of financial distress (because of FDIC insurance). Therefore, a significant theoretical underpinning for using a WACC – that the cost of debt increases along with the entity’s risk of default – is undermined for a bank. Analytical consistency is created in a DCF analysis by matching a cash flow to equity investors (i.e., dividends) with a cost of equity.A bank’s cost of equity can be estimated based on the historical excess returns generated by equity investments over Treasury rates, as adjusted by a “beta” metric that captures the volatility of bank stocks relative to the broader market. Analysts may also consider entity-specific risk factors – such as a concentration in a limited geographic market, elevated credit quality concerns, and the like – that serve to distinguish the risk faced by investors in the subject institution relative to the norm for publicly traded banks from which cost of equity data is derived.3. Terminal ValueThe terminal value is a function of a financial metric at the end of the forecast period, such as net income or tangible book value, and an appropriate valuation multiple. Two techniques exist to determine a terminal value multiple. First, the Gordon Growth Model develops an earnings multiple using (a) the discount rate and (b) a long-term, sustainable growth rate. Second, as illustrated in Chart 2, bank pricing multiples tend to vary within a relatively tight range, and a historical average trading multiple can inform the terminal value multiple selection.Correlating the AnalysisIn most analyses, the values derived using the market and income approaches will differ. Given a range, an analyst must consider the strengths and weaknesses of each indicated value to arrive at a final concluded value. For example, earnings based indications of value derived using the market approach may be more relevant in “normal” times, as the values are consistent with investors’ orientation towards earnings as the ultimate source of returns (either dividends or capital appreciation). However, in more distressed times when earnings are depressed, indications of value using book value assume more relevance. If a bank has completed a recent acquisition or is in the midst of a strategic overhaul, then the discounted cash flow method may deserve greater emphasis. We prefer to assign quantitative weights to each indication of value, which provide transparency into the process by which value is determined.Relative Value AnalysisThe analysis is not complete, however, when a correlated value is obtained. It is crucial to compare the valuation multiples implied by the concluded value, such as the effective price/earnings and price/tangible book value multiples, against those reported by publicly traded banks. Any divergences should be explainable. For example, if the bank operates in a market with constrained growth prospects, then a lower than average price/earnings multiple may be appropriate. A higher return on equity for a subject bank, relative to the comparable companies, often results in a higher price/tangible book value multiple. As another reference point, the effective pricing multiples may be benchmarked against bank merger and acquisition pricing to ensure that an appropriate relationship exists between the subject minority interest value and a possible merger value.ConclusionThere are many valuation issues that remain untouched by this article in the interest of brevity, such as the valuation treatment of S corporations and the discount for lack of marketability applicable to minority interests in banks with no active trading market. Instead, this article addresses issues commonly faced in valuing minority interests in any community bank. A well-reasoned valuation of a community bank requires understanding the valuation conventions applicable to banks, such as pricing multiples commonly employed or the appropriate source of cash flow in a DCF analysis, but within a risk and growth framework that underlies the valuation of all equity instruments. Relating these valuation parameters to a comprehensive analysis of a bank’s financial performance, risk factors, and strategic outlook results in a rigorous and convincing determination of value. In the next edition, we will move beyond the valuation of minority interests in banks, focusing on specific valuation nuances that arise when engaging in a valuation for merger purposes.Originally published in Bank Watch, November 2019.
Valuation Issues in Auto Dealer Litigation
Valuation Issues in Auto Dealer Litigation
In our family law and commercial litigation practice, we often serve as expert witnesses in auto dealership valuation disputes. We hope you never find yourself a party to a legal dispute; however, we offer the following words of wisdom based upon our experience working in these valuation-related disputes. The following topics, posed as questions, have been points of contention or common issues that have arisen in recent disputes. We present them here so that if you are ever party to a dispute, you will be a more informed user of valuation and expert witness services.Should Your Expert Witness be a Valuation or Industry Expert?Oftentimes, the financial and business valuation portion of a litigation is referred to as a “battle of the experts” because you have at least two valuation experts, one for the plaintiff and one for the defendant.In the auto dealer world, you are hopefully combining valuation expertise with a highly-specialized industry.It is critical to engage an expert who is both a valuation expert and an industry expert – one who holds valuation credentials and has deep valuation knowledge and also understands and employs accepted industry-specific valuation techniques.Look with caution upon valuation experts with minimal industry experience who utilize general valuation methodologies often reserved for other industries (for example, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)or multiples of Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation (EBITDA)) with no discussion of Blue Sky multiples.Does the Appraisal Discuss Local Economic Conditions and Competition Adequately?The auto industry, like most industries, is dependent on the climate of the national economy.Additionally, auto dealers can be dependent or affected by conditions that are unique to their local economy.The type of franchise relative to the local demographics can also have a direct impact on the success/profitability of a particular auto dealer.For example, a luxury or high-line franchise in a smaller or poorer market would not be expected to fare as well as one in a market that has a larger and wealthier demographic.In those areas that are dependent on a local economy/industry, an understanding of that economy/industry becomes just as important as an understanding of the overall auto dealer industry and national economy.Common examples are local markets that are home to a military base, oil & gas markets in Western Texas or natural gas in Pennsylvania, or fishing industries in coastal areas. There’s also a fine balance between understanding and acknowledging the impact of that local economy without overstating it.Often some of the risks of the local economy are already reflected in the historical operating results of the dealership.If There Are Governing Corporate Documents, What Do They Say About Value, and Should They Be Relied Upon?Many of the corporate entities involved in litigation have sophisticated governance documents that include Operating Agreements, Buy-Sell Agreements, and the like. These documents often contain provisions to value the stock or entity through the use of a formula or process.Whether or not these agreements are to be relied upon in whole or in part in a litigated matter is not always clear. In litigated matters, focus will be placed on whether the value concluded from a governance document represents fair market value, fair value, or some other standard of value.However, the formulas contained in these agreements are not always specific to the industry and may not include accepted valuation methodology for auto dealers.Two common questions that arise concerning these agreements are 1) has an indication of value ever been concluded using the governance document in the dealership’s history (in other words, has the dealership been valued using the methodology set out in the document)?; and 2) have there been any transactions, buy-ins or redemptions utilizing the values concluded in a governance document?These are important questions to consider when determining the appropriate weight to place on a value indication from a governance document.Some litigation matters (such as divorce) state that the non-business party to the litigation is not bound by the value indicated by the governance document since they were not a signed party to that particular agreement. It is always important to discuss this issue with your attorney.Have There Been Prior Internal Transactions of Company Stock and at What Price?Similar to governance documents, another possible data point(s) in valuing an auto dealership are internal transactions. A good appraiser will always ask if there have been prior transactions of company stock and, if so, how many have occurred, when did they occur, and at what terms did they occur? There is no magic number, but as with most statistics, more transactions closer to the date of valuation can often be considered as better indicators of value than fewer transactions further from the date of valuation.An important consideration in internal transactions is the motivation of the buyer and seller. If there have been multiple internal transactions, appraisers have to determine the appropriateness of which transactions to possibly include and which to possibly exclude in their determination of value. Without an understanding of the motivation of the parties and of the specific facts of the transactions, it becomes trickier to include some, but exclude others.The more logical conclusion would be to include all of the transactions or exclude all of the transactions with a stated explanation.What Do the Owner’s Personal Financial Statements Say and Are They Important?Most owners of an auto dealership have to submit personal financial statements as part of the guarantee on the floor plan and other financing.The personal financial statement includes a listing of all of the dealer’s assets and liabilities, typically including some value assigned to the value of the dealership. In litigated matters, these documents are important as another data point to valuation.One view of the value placed on a dealership in an owner’s personal financial statement is that no formal valuation process was used to determine that number; so, at best, it’s a thumb in the air, blind estimate of value.The opposing view is the individual submitting the personal financial statement is attesting to the accuracy and reliability of the financial figures contained in document under penalty of perjury.Further, some would say that the value assigned to the dealership has merit because the business owner is the most informed person regarding the business, its future growth opportunities, competition, and the impact of economic and industry factors on the business.For an appraiser, it’s not a good situation to be surprised by the existence of these documents. A good business appraiser will always ask for them.The dealership value indicated in a personal financial statement should be viewed in light of value indications under other methodologies and sources of information.At a minimum, personal financial statements may require the expert to ask more questions or use other factors, such as the national and local economy, to explain any difference in values over time.Does the Appraiser Understand the Industry and How to Use Comparable Industry Profitability Data?The auto dealer industry is highly specialized and unique and should not be compared to general retail or manufacturing industries.As such, any sole comparison to general industry profitability data should be avoided.If your appraiser solely uses the Annual Statement Studies provided by the Risk Management Association (RMA) as a source of comparison for the balance sheet and income statement of your dealership to the industry, this is problematic.RMA’s studies are organized by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Typical new and used retail auto dealers would fall under NAICS #441110 or #441120. This general data does not distinguish between different franchises.Is there better or more specialized data available? Yes, the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) publishes monthly Dealership Financial Profiles broken down by Average Dealerships, which would be comparable to RMA data.However, NADA drills down further, segmenting the industry into the four following categories: Domestic Dealerships, Import Dealerships, Luxury Dealerships and Mass Market Dealerships.While no single comparison is perfect, an appraiser should know to consult more specific industry profitability data when available.Do You Understand Actual Profitability vs. Expected Profitability and Why It’s Important?Either through an income or Blue Sky approach, auto dealers are typically valued based upon expected profitability rather than the actual profitability of the business.The difference between actual and expected profitability generally consists of normalization adjustments. Normalization adjustments are adjustments made for any unusual or non-recurring items that do not reflect normal business operations. During the due diligence interview with management, an appraiser should ask does the dealership have non-recurring or discretionary expenses and are personal expenses of the owner being paid by the business? Comparing the dealership to industry profitability data as discussed earlier can help the appraiser understand the degree to which the dealership may be underperforming.An example of how normalizing adjustments work is helpful. If a dealership has historically reported 2% earnings before taxes (EBT) and the NADA data suggests 5%, the financial expert must analyze why there is a difference between these two data points and determine if there are normalizing adjustments to be applied. Let’s use some numbers to illustrate this point.For a dealership with revenue of $25 million, historical profitability at 2% would suggest EBT of $500,000.At 5%, expected EBT would be $1,250,000, or an increase of $750,000. In this case, the financial expert should analyze the financial statements and the dealership to determine if normalization adjustments are appropriate which, when made, will reflect a more realistic figure of the expected profitability of the dealership without non-recurring or personal owner expenses. This is important because, hypothetically, a new owner could optimize the business and eliminate some of these expenses; therefore, even dealerships with a history of negative or lower earnings can receive higher Blue Sky multiples because a buyer believes they can improve the performance of the dealership. However, as noted earlier, the dealership may be affected by the local economy and other issues that cannot be fixed so the lower historical EBT may be justified.For more information on normalizing adjustments, see our article Automobile Dealership Valuation 101.ConclusionThe valuation of automobile dealerships can be complex. A deep understanding of the industry along with valuation expertise is the optimal combination for general valuation needs and certainly for valuation-related disputes. If you have a valuation issue, feel free to contact us to discuss it in confidence. Originally published in the Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry Newsletter, Mid-Year 2019.
Tariff Time
Tariff Time

Will they? Or won’t they? The imposition of tariffs and the broadness of their application has been a hot topic. Uncertainty over when they would come into effect, which countries would be subject to them, and which products or goods would be exempt, has contributed to market swings. As the health of the transportation and logistics industry is closely tied to the overall health of the economy, the impact of tariffs could be large.
Five Trends to Watch in the Medical Device Industry
Five Trends to Watch in the Medical Device Industry
The medical device manufacturing industry produces equipment designed to diagnose and treat patients within global healthcare systems. Medical devices range from simple tongue depressors and bandages, to complex programmable pacemakers and sophisticated imaging systems. Major product categories include surgical implants and instruments, medical supplies, electro-medical equipment, in-vitro diagnostic equipment and reagents, irradiation apparatuses, and dental goods.The following outlines five structural factors and trends that influence demand and supply of medical devices and related procedures.1. DemographicsThe aging population, driven by declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, represents a major demand driver for medical devices. The U.S. elderly population (persons aged 65 and above) totaled 49 million in 2016 (15% of the population). The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the elderly will roughly double by 2060 to 95 million, representing 23% of the total population. The elderly account for nearly one third of total healthcare consumption. Personal healthcare spending for the population segment was $19,000 per person in 2014, five times the spending per child ($3,700) and almost triple the spending per working-age person ($7,200). According to United Nations projections, the global elderly population will rise from approximately 607 million (8.2% of world population) in 2015 to 1.8 billion (17.8% of world population) in 2060. Europe’s elderly are projected to reach approximately 29% of the population by 2060, making it the world’s oldest region. While Latin America and Asia are currently relatively young, these regions are expected to undergo drastic transformations over the next several decades, with the elderly population expected to expand from less than 8% in 2015 to more than 21% of the total population by 2060. 2. Healthcare Spending and the Legislative Landscape in the U.S.Demographic shifts underlie the expected growth in total U.S. healthcare expenditure from $3.5 trillion in 2017 to $6.0 trillion in 2027, an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. While this projected average annual growth rate is more modest than that of 7.0% observed from 1990 through 2007, it is more rapid than the observed rate of 4.3% between 2008 and 2017. Projected growth in annual spending for Medicare (7.9%) is expected to contribute substantially to the increase in national health expenditure over the coming decade. Healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP is expected to expand from 17.9% in 2017 to 19.4% by 2027.Since inception, Medicare has accounted for an increasing proportion of total U.S. healthcare expenditures. Medicare currently provides healthcare benefits for an estimated 60 million elderly and disabled people, constituting approximately 15% of the federal budget in 2018. Medicare represents the largest portion of total healthcare costs, constituting 20% of total health spending in 2017. Medicare also accounts for 25% of hospital spending, 30% of retail prescription drugs sales, and 23% of physician services. Owing to the growing influence of Medicare in aggregate healthcare consumption, legislative developments can have a potentially outsized effect on the demand and pricing for medical products and services. Net mandatory benefit outlays (gross outlays less offsetting receipts) to Medicare totaled $591 billion in 2017, and are expected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2028. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“ACA”) of 2010 incorporated changes that are expected to constrain annual growth in Medicare spending over the next several decades, including reductions in Medicare payments to plans and providers, increased revenues, and new delivery system reforms that aim to improve efficiency and quality of patient care and reduce costs. On a per person basis, Medicare spending is projected to grow at 4.6% annually between 2017 and 2027, compared to 1.5% average annualized growth realized between 2010 and 2017, and 7.3% during the 2000s. As part of ACA legislation, a 2.3% excise tax was imposed on certain medical devices for sales by manufacturers, producers, or importers. The tax had become effective on December 31, 2012, but met resistance from industry participants and policy makers. In late 2015, Congress passed legislation promulgating a two-year moratorium on the tax beginning January 2016. In January 2018, the moratorium suspending the medical device excise tax was extended through 2019.3. Third-Party Coverage and ReimbursementThe primary customers of medical device companies are physicians (and/or product approval committees at their hospitals), who select the appropriate equipment for consumers (patients). In most developed economies, the consumers themselves are one (or more) step removed from interactions with manufacturers, and therefore pricing of medical devices. Device manufacturers ultimately receive payments from insurers, who usually reimburse healthcare providers for routine procedures (rather than for specific components like the devices used). Accordingly, medical device purchasing decisions tend to be largely disconnected from price.Third-party payors (both private and government programs) are keen to reevaluate their payment policies to constrain rising healthcare costs. Several elements of the ACA are expected to limit reimbursement growth for hospitals, which form the largest market for medical devices. Lower reimbursement growth will likely persuade hospitals to scrutinize medical purchases by adopting i) higher standards to evaluate the benefits of new procedures and devices, and ii) a more disciplined price bargaining stance. The transition of the healthcare delivery paradigm from fee-for-service (FFS) to value models is expected to lead to fewer hospital admissions and procedures, given the focus on cost-cutting and efficiency. In 2015, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced goals to have 85% and 90% of all Medicare payments tied to quality or value by 2016 and 2018, respectively, and 30% and 50% of total Medicare payments tied to alternative payment models (APM) by the end of 2016 and 2018, respectively. A report issued by the Health Care Payment Learning & Action Network (LAN), a public-private partnership launched in March 2015 by HHS, found that 34% of payments were tied to APMs, a 5% increase from 2016 to 2017. Some expressed concern that the shift toward value-based care would encounter difficulties with the current administration. In November 2017, the CMS partially canceled bundled payment programs for certain joint replacement and cardiac rehabilitation procedures. However, indications are that the CMS supports value-based care and wants pilot programs to accelerate. Ultimately, lower reimbursement rates and reduced procedure volume will likely limit pricing gains for medical devices and equipment. The medical device industry faces similar reimbursement issues globally, as the EU and other jurisdictions face increasing healthcare costs, as well. A number of countries have instituted price ceilings on certain medical procedures, which could deflate the reimbursement rates of third-party payors, forcing down product prices. Industry participants are required to report manufacturing costs and medical device reimbursement rates are set potentially below those figures in certain major markets like Germany, France, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, China, and Brazil. Whether third-party payors consider certain devices medically reasonable or necessary for operations presents a hurdle that device makers and manufacturers must overcome in bringing their devices to market.4. Competitive Factors and Regulatory RegimeHistorically, much of the growth for medical technology companies has been predicated on continual product innovations that make devices easier for doctors to use and improve health outcomes for the patients. Successful product development usually requires significant R&D outlays and a measure of luck. However, viable new devices can elevate average selling prices, market penetration, and market share.Government regulations curb competition in two ways to foster an environment where firms may realize an acceptable level of returns on their R&D investments. First, firms that are first to the market with a new product can benefit from patents and intellectual property protection giving them a competitive advantage for a finite period. Second, regulations govern medical device design and development, preclinical and clinical testing, premarket clearance or approval, registration and listing, manufacturing, labeling, storage, advertising and promotions, sales and distribution, export and import, and post market surveillance.Regulatory Overview in the U.S.In the U.S., the FDA generally oversees the implementation of the second set of regulations. Some relatively simple devices deemed to pose low risk are exempt from the FDA’s clearance requirement and can be marketed in the U.S. without prior authorization. For the remaining devices, commercial distribution requires marketing authorization from the FDA, which comes in primarily two flavors.The premarket notification (“510(k) clearance”) process requires the manufacturer to demonstrate that a device is “substantially equivalent” to an existing device (“predicate device”) that is legally marketed in the U.S. The 510(k) clearance process may occasionally require clinical data, and generally takes between 90 days and one year for completion. In November 2018, the FDA announced plans to change elements of the 510(k) clearance process. Specifically, the FDA plan includes measures to encourage device manufacturers to use predicate devices that have been on the market for no more than 1o years. The FDA also announced in its statements plans to finalize guidance establishing an alternative 510(k) pathway in early 2019. This alternative pathway would allow manufacturers of certain “well-understood device types” to demonstrate substantial equivalence through objective safety and performance criteria.The premarket approval (“PMA”) process is more stringent, time-consuming and expensive. A PMA application must be supported by valid scientific evidence, which typically entails collection of extensive technical, preclinical, clinical and manufacturing data. Once the PMA is submitted and found to be complete, the FDA begins an in-depth review, which is required by statute to take no longer than 180 days. However, the process typically takes significantly longer, and may require several years to complete. Pursuant to the Medical Device User Fee Modernization Act (MDUFA), the FDA collects user fees for the review of devices for marketing clearance or approval. The current iteration of the Medical Device User Fee Act (MDUFA IV) came into effect in October 2017. Under MDUFA IV, the FDA is authorized to collect almost $1 billion in user fees, an increase of more than $320 million over MDUFA III, between 2017 and 2022.Regulatory Overview Outside the U.S.The European Union (EU), along with countries such as Japan, Canada, and Australia all operate strict regulatory regimes similar to that of the FDA, and international consensus is moving towards more stringent regulations. Stricter regulations for new devices may slow release dates and may negatively affect companies within the industry.Medical device manufacturers face a single regulatory body across the EU. In order for a medical device to be allowed on the market, it must meet the requirements set by the EU Medical Devices Directive. Devices must receive a Conformité Européenne (CE) Mark certificate before they are allowed to be sold in that market. This CE marking verifies that a device meets all regulatory requirements, including EU safety standards. A set of different directives apply to different types of devices, potentially increasing the complexity and cost of compliance.5. Emerging Global MarketsEmerging economies are claiming a growing share of global healthcare consumption, including medical devices and related procedures, owing to relative economic prosperity, growing medical awareness, and increasing (and increasingly aging) populations. As global health expenditure continues to increase, sales to countries outside the U.S. represent a potential avenue for growth for domestic medical device companies. According to the World Bank, all regions (except Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia) have seen an increase in healthcare spending as a percentage of total output over the last two decades. Global medical devices sales are estimated to increase 6.4% annually from 2016 to 2020, reaching nearly $440 billion according to the International Trade Administration. While the Americas are projected to remain the world’s largest medical device market, the Asia/Pacific and Western Europe markets are expected to expand at a quicker pace over the next several years. SummaryDemographic shifts underlie the long-term market opportunity for medical device manufacturers. While efforts to control costs on the part of the government insurer in the U.S. may limit future pricing growth for incumbent products, a growing global market provides domestic device manufacturers with an opportunity to broaden and diversify their geographic revenue base. Developing new products and procedures is risky and usually more resource intensive compared to some other growth sectors of the economy. However, barriers to entry in the form of existing regulations provide a measure of relief from competition, especially for newly developed products.
Community Bank Valuation (Part 3): Important Relationships Between a Bank and Its Holding Company
Community Bank Valuation (Part 3): Important Relationships Between a Bank and Its Holding Company
The August 2019 BankWatch described key considerations in analyzing the financial statements of banks. However, we did not address one crucial set of relationships – those between a bank holding company (“BHC”) and its subsidiary depository institution.Most banks are owned by bank holding companies. While investors often state that they own an interest in a bank, this may not be legally precise. Usually, they own a share of stock in a bank holding company, which in turn owns a controlling interest in a subsidiary bank’s common stock. Where a bank holding company exists, this entity’s common stock generally is the subject of valuation analyses.Part 3 of the Community Bank Valuation series explores important relationships between banks and their holding companies, focusing particularly on cash flow and leverage.The Holding Company’s Balance SheetCompared to a bank’s balance sheet, a holding company’s balance sheet has fewer moving parts. The “left side” of its balance sheet, or its assets, usually is rather boring. The more intriguing analytical question, though, is how the bank holding company finances its investment in the bank. The following table presents a balance sheet for a BHC controlling 100% of the common stock of a bank with $500 million of total assets. Usually, the holding company’s assets consist virtually entirely of its investment in its subsidiary bank or banks, which equals the bank’s total equity. The investment in the bank is carried at equity, meaning that it increases by the bank’s net income and decreases by dividends paid from the bank to the holding company, among other transactions. Other material assets may include: Cash. BHCs with cash obligations paid at the holding company, such as interest payments or compensation, often will maintain a cash buffer to cover several months of operating expenses. In some cases, BHCs will maintain a larger cash position to react opportunistically if the bank subsidiary needs a capital injection for its growth or to repurchase BHC shares.Other Assets. Non-bank assets typically are relatively modest and consist of investments in other entities (such as an insurance agency), intangible assets related to acquisitions that were not “pushed down” to the subsidiary, or facilities. In periods marked by higher levels of nonperforming assets, BHCs may hold problem assets, which is one strategy to reduce the bank’s classified asset/ capital ratio. Interestingly, BHCs can borrow from banks – just not their bank subsidiary – and other capital providers. If the funds are downstreamed into the bank, the borrowings can be transformed from an instrument not includible in the BHC’s regulatory capital into Tier 1 capital at the bank. In order of seniority these funding sources include:Bank Stock Loans. These loans are collateralized by the subsidiary bank’s stock and typically are obtained from another bank. As a secured borrowing, these loans generally have a lower cost than other alternatives. However, in the event of a default, the lender can foreclose on their collateral (i.e., the bank stock).Subordinated Debt. After passage of the Dodd-Frank Act and the Basel III capital regulations, subordinated debt became a more prominent funding source, usually for organic growth or acquisitions. Various regulatory requirements govern subordinated debt offerings, but most community bank placements provide for a ten year term with the interest rate fixed for five years. The securities may be considered Tier 2 capital for the holding company.Trust Preferred Securities (“TruPS”). TruPS were created in the 1990s to combine the Tier 1 capital treatment of preferred stock with the tax deductibility of debt. Rightly or wrongly, this instrument was viewed negatively by some regulators after the financial crisis, and the Basel III regulations effectively nullified new issuances. Many BHCs still hold grandfathered TruPS, though, which often do not mature until the 2030s. TruPS generally have interest rates that float with LIBOR, are subordinated to all other BHC obligations, and provide the issuer the right to defer payments for up to five years without triggering a default. TruPS count as Tier 1 capital for BHCs with under $15 billion in assets that are considered to be “large” BHCs that fie Y-9LP and Y-9C call reports with the Federal Reserve. A BHC’s equity usually consists almost entirely of common stock, which generally must be the principal form of capitalization under BHC regulations. However, BHCs can issue preferred stock, and regulations view most favorably non-cumulative, perpetual preferred stock.Analytical ConsiderationsWhy do holding companies exist? First, they provide an efficient way to raise funds that can be injected as capital into the bank, thereby accommodating its organic growth. Second, they can facilitate acquisitions. Third, BHCs can more efficiently conduct shareholder transactions, such as repurchases.By using leverage, a BHC can enhance the bank’s stand-alone return on equity (or exacerbate the ROE pressure arising from adverse financial scenarios). As indicated in Table 2, BHC leverage magnifies the subsidiary bank’s 12.0% ROE to 12.9% after considering the cost of the BHC’s debt. As for a non-financial company, too much leverage can mean that the beneficial effect to shareholders of a higher ROE is swamped by the additional risk of financial distress. Various metrics exist to measure the holding company’s leverage, but one is the “double leverage” ratio, which is calculated as the investment in the bank subsidiary divided by the BHC’s equity. As indicated in Table 1 on page one, the BHC’s ratio is 113%, which is consistent with the median reported by all smaller BHCs at June 30, 2019 (112%, excluding some BHCs for which the BHC’s equity exceeds the bank investment). Cash FlowUnfortunately, BHC regulatory filings and audited financial statements do not provide a sources and uses of funds schedule, although some cash flow data is provided. Nevertheless, understanding the BHC’s obligations, and the cash required to service those obligations, is essential.Sources of funds consist principally of the following:Dividends from the bank subsidiary. The depth of this source of cash flow should be evaluated in light of the bank’s profitability, capital levels, and growth opportunities.Debt issuancesCommon stock salesIntercompany payments. For example, the bank may reimburse the holding company for certain expenses paid by the BHC. Additionally, banks and BHCs often have tax-sharing arrangements. If the holding company incurs expenses, then it may realize an offsetting tax benefit. Uses of funds include the following:Debt serviceShareholder dividendsShare repurchasesOperating expenses. Expenses such as compensation, directors’ fees, and certain insurance premiums may be recorded by the holding company Analysts should compare a bank’s ability to pay dividends, given its profitability level and need to retain earnings to fund its growth, against the BHC’s various claims on cash. Mismatches can sometimes arise due to changes in the bank’s performance or operating strategy. For example, consider a BHC that historically has paid high dividends to shareholders. If its subsidiary bank adopts a new strategic plan focused on organic growth, then the bank will need to retain earnings rather than pay dividends to the BHC and, ultimately, BHC shareholders. Additional borrowings could fund a short-term gap, but this is not a long-term solution to a BHC cash flow mismatch. Two other special circumstances arise when analyzing BHC cash flow:Acquisitions. Prior to entering into a transaction, the BHC’s plan for funding any cash consideration should evaluate the availability and desirability of dividends from the bank, debt offerings, and stock sales. Further, the cash acquired from the target BHC may provide another source of transaction funding.S Corporations. Shareholders in an S corporation rely on the BHC for distributions to offset their pass-through tax liability, while the BHC in turn relies on the bank for dividends to fund those tax payments. There are no special capital rules at the bank level that provide flexibility regarding the payment of dividends to offset BHC shareholders’ tax liability when other restrictions on dividends may exist. That is, C corporation and S corporation banks face the same capital regulations. Boards of S corporations may desire to operate, at the margin, with a greater capital buffer to avoid a situation where the shareholders have taxable income but the BHC is unable to make distributions.CapitalCapital requirements for BHCs vary based upon their asset size. Under current regulations, BHCs with assets below $3.0 billion are subject to the Federal Reserve’s Small Bank Holding Company Policy Statement. This regulation does not establish any specific minimum capital ratios for small BHCs; however, a debt/ equity ratio limitation exists for debt arising from acquisitions. Therefore, small BHCs have significant flexibility in managing their capital structure, although the Federal Reserve theoretically remains a check on their creativity.Large BHCs are subject to the Basel III regulations, which involve capital ratios calculated based on Tier 1 and total capital. Tier 1 capital generally is limited to common equity, non-cumulative perpetual preferred stock, and grandfathered TruPS. In addition to the allowance for loan losses, Tier 2 capital may include subordinated debt. Large BHC management can balance these capital sources to minimize the BHC’s weighted average cost of capital, maintain flexibility for unexpected events or opportunities, and ensure compliance with regulatory expectations.ConclusionWhile the subsidiary bank receives most of the analytical attention, the holding company on a standalone (or parent company) basis should not be overlooked. This is particularly true if the holding company has significant obligations to service debt or pay other expenses. By understanding the linkages between the bank and holding company, analysts can better assess a BHC’s potential future returns to shareholders and risk factors posed by the BHC that could jeopardize those returns.Originally published in Bank Watch, September 2019.
Context is Important When Considering Transaction Data Relevance
Context is Important When Considering Transaction Data Relevance
A Look at WeWork’s Failed IPOIn last quarter’s issue of Portfolio Valuation we raised the issue as to whether public market investors are more critical (or discerning) in establishing value than private equity investors.The evidence this year largely is, yes—at least for companies where there is skepticism as to whether meaningful profitability can be achieved. Lyft, SmileDirectClub and Uber are examples of unicorns that saw share prices marked sharply lower after the IPO (Lyft, SDC) or during the roadshow (Uber); and The We Company’s planned IPO never occurred due to pushback by investors. At the other extreme is Beyond Meat, which as of early October had risen about six-fold from its May IPO.The We Company’s (formerly “WeWork” and will be refered to in this article as WeWork) valuation journey is interesting (maybe even fascinating).WeWork, which was founded in 2010, is a real estate company that signs long-term leases for pricey real estate that it refurbishes then releases the space short-term. The company describes itself somewhat differently as a “community company committed to maximum global impact.” The S-1 disclosed not only massive losses, but also significant corporate governance issues.Year-to-date revenues through June 30, 2019 doubled to $1.5 billion from the comparable period in 2018, but the operating loss also doubled to $1.4 billion.EBITDA for the six months was negative $511 million, while capex totaled $1.3 billion. That is a big hole to fill every six months before factoring in rapid growth to be financed.Cash as of June 30 totaled $2.5 billion, while the capital structure entails a lot of debt and negative equity. From a valuation perspective, WeWork is problematic because operating cash flows are deep in the red with little prospect of turning positive anytime soon. Nonetheless, the increase in value private equity investors placed on the company was astounding. The company pierced the unicorn threshold in early 2014 when affiliates of JPMorgan invested $150 million in the fourth funding at a post-raise $1.5 billion valuation. T. Rowe Price and Goldman Sachs invested $434 million in late 2014, which resulted in a post raise valuation of $10 billion. The 7th and 8th funding rounds are where the valuation really gets interesting.In August 2017 SoftBank Vision Fund invested $3.1 billion, which implied a valuation of $21 billion.SoftBank Group Corp., which sponsors the Vision Fund, invested $4.0 billion in January 2019 at an implied valuation of $47 billion. When the underwriters were forced to pull the plug on the IPO the targeted post-raise valuation reportedly was $10 billion to $15 billion—a value the company apparently was willing to accept because it needs the cash.We do not know exactly how private equity investors valued the company.Presumably discounted cash flow (DCF), guideline public company and guideline transaction methods were used, perhaps overlaid with a Monte Carlo simulation.The valuation history raises an important question: how was a stupendous valuation achieved in the private markets by a cash incinerator such as WeWork? A similar question could be asked about many high-profile PE-backed investments.The short answer is that Softbank thinks the valuation increased significantly even though the company’s fundamentals argue otherwise. Prospective investors such as the public ones who were offered WeWork shares in an IPO could prepare their own DCF forecast to value the company.They also could examine past transactions in the company for relevant valuation information. Likewise, they could examine capital transactions in similar companies.Both sets of data fall under the guideline transaction method. A transaction in a privately held company infers a meaningful data point about value to investors, but there are a couple of caveats.One is an assumption that both parties are fully-informed and neither is forced to transact.Great values were realized by those willing to buy during the 2008 meltdown because there were so many forced sellers that ran the gamut from levered credit investors forced to dump bonds to the likes of Wachovia Corporation and National City Corporation. The price data was legitimate, but many sellers faced margin calls and had to dump assets into an illiquid market.Is the valuation data relevant if “normal” market conditions prevail?The second issue relates to private equity valuation generally, but especially those where start-up losses and ongoing capital requirements can be huge.The valuation issue relates to using transaction data from investments in other money losing enterprises.Is it always valid to apply multiples paid by investors in a funding round of a money-losing business to value another money-losing business? The valuation data may be factual, but it may be nonsense when weighed against the business’ operating and financial performance.One can question Softbank’s motives.Did Softbank need a higher valuation to offset losses in other parts of the portfolio in order to maintain investor and lender confidence? Was a higher valuation necessary to support upcoming capital raises? We do not know, but prospective public investors were dismissive of Softbank’s valuations and they appear to be dismissive of the prior two raises given how low the price talk had fallen by the time the IPO was pulled. We at Mercer Capital respect markets and the pricing information that is conveyed.The prices at which assets transact in private and public markets are critical observations; however, so too are a subject company’s underlying fundamentals, especially the ability to produce positive operating cash flow and a return on capital that at least approximates the cost of capital provided.Mercer Capital can assist with the valuation of your portfolio companies.We value hundreds of debt and equity securities of privately held companies every year and have been doing so for nearly four decades.Please call if we can assist in the valuation of your portfolio companies.Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Portfolio Valuation Newsletter:Third Quarter 2019
Does the Public Market Believe in Unicorns?
Does the Public Market Believe in Unicorns?
The IPO market is hot thanks to the intersection of investor enthusiasm and a new crop of venture capital-backed, and in some instances traditional private equity-backed, firms that have gone public. Unicorns (pre-IPO valuation of $1 billion or more) in particular have caught investors’ attention. There is nothing new about a hot IPO cycle in the U.S. IPO activity waxes and wanes with markets. The last massive wave occurred in 1999 when a mania swept through markets as then internet and other technology-focused companies captured investors’ imaginations.1999 vs. 2019Why has 2019 become the year of the unicorn IPO? It could be a matter of timing and monetary policy. After a nearly ten-year bull market, private equity is monetizing while the IPO window remains open after it more or less closed in the fourth quarter of 2018. Also, easy money policies the past decade arguably have incented investors to shower capital on growth-focused tech companies. With the Fed likely to begin cutting rates again in 2019, capital flows may intensify again.Nonetheless, the current IPO wave is different from 1999 and other peaks on three related counts. One is the length of time most venture-backed companies have remained private before going public. The other is the staggering amount of losses incurred even on an “adjusted” basis before going public. The link between the two differences has been the willingness of deep-pocketed investors, such as SoftBank, to fund losses through multiple capital raises. The link gives rise to the third difference: staggeringly large private market valuations for some.Looking at how several of the big name public offerings have fared this year, we can’t help but wonder:Do current losses matter to public market investors?Did the private market overvalue these unicorns?What does all of this mean for other unicorns planning to go public in 2019?The short answers are: perhaps, probably, and hurry.Sentiment Toward Recent UnicornsPublic investors seemingly have been more discerning about losses than private investors who pushed valuations higher for many companies with successive funding rounds. Price performance in the post-IPO market has been uneven as would be expected, but it points to less tolerance among public market investors to the extent big money losers such as Lyft and Uber have much lower valuations today than expected when their IPO roadshows were launched. Blue Apron is a poster child for a disaster post-IPO stock, but it is not alone.Lyft and Uber point to the more critical view public investors have taken of each company’s business model as it relates to future earnings. Lyft priced near the high end of the range targeted initially by lead underwriter JPMorgan and then saw strong first day performance; however, it now trades about 15% below the IPO price.Uber has traded down modestly from the IPO price, but lead underwriter Morgan Stanley had to sharply reduce the IPO price from when the roadshow started with price talk of a $90 billion to $100 billion post-raise valuation compared to about $73 billion presently.Uber and Lyft posted the highest revenue growth over the prior three years, but also the largest losses. The losses didn’t prohibit the companies from going public, but the uncertainty of a future path to profitability has led to disappointing performance relative to the hype that has surrounded the companies. Perhaps investors see a better outlook for Slack Technologies, which went public via a direct listing on the NYSE in mid-June. Although the company is not yet profitable, the shares rose nearly 50% on the first day of trading as either investors see a path to profitability or too few shares were floated. On the other hand, both Tradeweb and Zoom among a number of newly minted tech companies have performed well since their respective IPOs. Both were profitable in the year prior to the IPO, which is more in line with the kind of pre-offering financials that public investors are used to seeing. The market has rewarded the two companies accordingly. The next big name to test investors’ willingness to fund sizable losses is The We Company. The company confidentially filed for an IPO at the end of 2018 and is expected to begin a roadshow soon. The We Company may be the ultimate unicorn to test the market. It is minting losses. Only through the company’s defined term “community adjusted” EBITDA, which is akin to a twice-adjusted EBITDA, does the company post positive EBITDA. Also, the company has a huge $45 billion valuation based upon its last fundraising round; yet, its business model may be suspect in that it entails acquiring expensive real estate that generally is leased under short-term arrangements. Presumably, in a recession, lease rates would plummet as vacancies soar.Some have raised legitimate questions about valuation processes employed by private equity and VC firms and whether private market valuations are too high. Others have noted investors can, in effect, mark-up the value of prior investments by investing in follow-on capital raises for a given company at a higher valuation. ConclusionWe do not mean to disparage anyone with the issues raised in this article. We respect markets and the pricing information that is conveyed. The prices at which assets transact in private and public markets are critical observations; however, so too are a subject company’s underlying fundamentals, especially the ability to produce positive operating cash flow and a return on capital that at least approximates the cost of capital provided.At Mercer Capital we have been valuing private equity and private credit securities for nearly four decades and have deep experience in most industries. If we can help you establish the value of securities held in your fund or offer a second opinion, please call. We would be glad to assist. Stock Performance Since IPO (Pricing as of 6/20/19)Three Year Financial PerformancePrivate vs. Public Valuation (Pricing as of 6/20/19)Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Portfolio Valuation Newsletter: Second Quarter 2019
Valuation Assumptions Influence Valuation Conclusions: How to Understand the Reasonableness of Individual Assumptions and Conclusions
Valuation Assumptions Influence Valuation Conclusions: How to Understand the Reasonableness of Individual Assumptions and Conclusions
In contested divorces where one or both spouses own a business or a business interest with significant value, it is common for one or both parties to retain a business appraiser to value the marital business interest(s). It is not unusual for the valuation conclusions of the two appraisers to differ significantly, with one significantly lower/higher than the other.What is a client, attorney, or judge to think when significantly different valuation conclusions are present? The answer to the reasonableness of one or both conclusions lies in the reasonableness of the appraisers’ assumptions. However, valuation is more than “proving” that each and every assumption is reasonable. Valuation also involves proving the overall reasonableness of an appraiser’s conclusion.A short example will illustrate this point and then we can address the issue of individual assumptions. In the following example, we see three potential discount rates and resulting price/earnings (“P/E”) multiples. Let’s assume that for the subject company in this example, there is significant market evidence suggesting that similar companies trade at a P/E in the neighborhood of 10x earnings.In the figure below, we look at the assumptions used by appraisers to “build” discount rates. We show differing assumptions regarding four of the components, and none of the differing assumptions seems to be too far from the others. So, we vary what are called the equity risk premium (“ERP”), the beta statistic, which is a measure of riskiness, the small stock premium (“SSP”), and company-specific risk.The left column (showing the low discount rate of 9.6% and a high P/E multiple of 15.2x) would yield the highest valuation conclusion. The right column (showing the high discount rateof 16.6% and the low P/E of 7.4x) would yield a substantially lower conclusion. That range is substantial and results in widely differing conclusions.However, as stated earlier, market evidence suggests that companies like our example are worth in the range of a 10x earnings. In our example, the assumptions leading to a P/E in the range of 10x are found in the middle column.In either case, appraisers might have made a seemingly convincing argument that each of their assumptions were reasonable and, therefore, that their conclusions were reasonable. However, the proof is in the pudding. Neither the low nor the high examples yield reasonable conclusions when viewed in light of available market evidence.So, as we discuss how to understand the reasonableness of individual valuation assumptions in divorce-related business appraisals, know also that the valuation conclusions must themselves be proven to be reasonable. That’s why we place a “test of reasonableness” in every Mercer Capital valuation report that reaches a valuation conclusion.Now, we turn to individual assumptions.Growth RatesGrowth rates can impact a valuation in several ways. First, growth rates can explain historical or future changes in revenues, earnings, profitability, etc. A long-term growth rate is also a key assumption in determining a discount rate and resulting capitalization rate.Growth rates, as a measure of historical or future change in performance, should be explained by the events that have occurred or are expected to occur. In other words, an appraiser should be able to explain the specific events that led to a certain growth rate, both in historical financial statements and also in forecasts. Companies experiencing large growth rates from one year to the next should be able to explain the trends that led to the large changes, whether it is new customers, new products being offered, loss of a competitor, an early-stage company ramping up, or other pertinent factors. Large growth rates for an extended period of time should always be questioned by the appraiser as to their sustainability at those heightened levels.A long-term growth rate is an assumption utilized by all appraisers in a capitalization rate. The long-term growth rate should estimate the annual, sustainable growth that the company expects to achieve. Typically, this assumption is based on a long-term inflation factor plus/minus a few percentage points. Be mindful of any very small, negative, or large long-term growth rate assumptions. If confronted with one, what are the specific reasons for those extreme assumptions?AnnualizationIn the course of a business valuation, appraisers normally examine the financial performance of a company for a historical period of around five years, if available. Since business valuations are point-in-time estimates, the date of valuation may not always coincide with a company’s annual reporting period.Most companies have financial software with the capability to produce a trailing twelve month (“TTM”) financial statement. A TTM financial statement allows an appraiser to examine a fullyear business cycle and is not as influenced by seasonality or cyclicality of operations and performance during partial fiscal years. The balance sheet may still reflect some seasonality or cyclicality. Note if the appraiser annualizes a short portion of a fiscal year to estimate an annual result. This practice could result in inflating or deflating expected results if there is significant seasonality or cyclicality present. At the very least, the annualized results should be compared with historical and expected future results in terms of implied margins and growth.ForecastsDepending on the industry or where the company is in its business life cycle, a forecast may be used in the valuation and the discounted cash flow method (“DCF”) may be used.Most forecasts are provided to appraisers by company management. While appraisers do not audit financial information provided by companies, including forecasts, the results should not be blindly accepted without verification against the company’s and its industry’s performance.During the due diligence process, appraisers should ask management if they prepare multiple versions of forecasts. They should also ask for prior years’ forecasts in order to assess how successful management has been in estimations as compared to actual financial results. Be mindful of appraisers that compile the forecasts themselves and make sure there is some discussion of the underlying assumptions.Divorce Recession“Divorce recession” is a term to describe a phenomenon that sometimes occurs when a business owner portrays doom and gloom in their industry and for current and future financial performance of the company. As with other assumptions, an appraiser should not blindly accept this outlook.An appraiser should compare the performance of the company against its historical trends, future outlook, and the condition of the industry and economy, among other factors. Be cautious of an appraisal where the current year or ongoing expectations are substantially lower, or higher for that matter, than historical performance without a tangible explanation as to why.Industry ConditionsMost formal business valuations should include a narrative describing the current and expected future conditions of the subject company’s industry. An important discussion is how those factors specifically affect the company. There could be reasons why the company’s market is experiencing things differently than the national industry. Industry conditions can provide qualitative reasons why and how the quantitative numbers for the company are changing. Look carefully at business valuations that do not discuss industry conditions or those where the industry conditions are contrary to the company’s trends.Valuation Techniques Specific to the Subject Company’s IndustryCertain industries have specific valuation methodologies and techniques that are used in addition to general valuation methodologies. Several of these industries include auto dealers, banks, healthcare and medical practices, hotels, and holding companies. It may be difficult for a layperson reviewing a business valuation to know whether the methods employed are general or industry-specific techniques. An attorney or business owner should ask the appraiser how much experience they have performing valuations in a particular industry. Also inquire if there are industry-specific valuation techniques used and how those affect the valuation conclusion.Risk FactorsRisk factors are all of the qualitative and quantitative factors that affect the expected future performance of a company. Simply put, a business valuation combines the expected financial performance of the subject company (earnings and growth) and its risk factors. Risk factors show up as part of the discount rate utilized in the business valuation.Like growth rates, there is no textbook that lists the appropriate risk factors for a particular industry or company. However, there is a reasonable range for this assumption.Be careful of appraisals that have an extreme figure for risk factors. Make sure there is a clear explanation for the heightened risk.MultiplesAnother typical component of a business valuation is the comparison and use of market multiples while utilizing the market approach. Multiples can explain value through revenues, profits, or a variety of performance measures. One critique of market multiples is the applicability of the comparable companies used to determine the multiples. Are those companies truly comparable to the subject company?Also, how reliable is the underlying comparable company data? Is it dated? How much information on the comparable companies or transactions can be extracted from the source? This critique can be fairly subjective to the layperson.Another critique could be the range of multiples examined and how they are applied to the subject company. As we have discussed, take note of an appraisal that applies the extreme bottom or top end of the range of multiples, or perhaps even a multiple not in the range. Be prepared to discuss the multiple selected and how the subject company compares to the comparable companies selected.Time Periods ConsideredEarlier we stated that a typical appraisal provides the prior five years of the company’s financial performance, if available. Be cautious of appraisals that use a small sample size, e.g. the latest year’s results, as an estimate of the subject company’s ongoing earnings potential without explanation. The number of years examined should be discussed and an explanation as to why certain years were considered or not considered should be offered.Some industries have multi-year cycles (further evidence of the importance of a discussion of industry conditions and consideration of recognized industry-specific techniques in the appraisal).The examination of one year or a few years (instead of five years) can result in a much higher or lower valuation conclusion. If this is the case, it should be explained.ConclusionBusiness valuation is a technical analysis of methodologies used to arrive at a conclusion of value for a subject company. It can be difficult for a client, attorney, or judge to understand the impact of certain individual assumptions and whether or not those assumptions are reasonable. In addition to a review of individual assumptions, the valuation conclusion should be reasonable.If the divorce case warrants, hire an appraiser to perform a business valuation. If the case or budget does not allow for a formal valuation, it may be helpful to hire an appraiser to review another appraiser’s business valuation at a minimum to help determine if the assumptions and conclusions are reasonable.Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, Second Quarter 2019.
Community Bank Valuation (Part 2): Key Considerations in Analyzing the Financial Statements of a Bank
Community Bank Valuation (Part 2): Key Considerations in Analyzing the Financial Statements of a Bank
The June BankWatch featured the first part of a series describing key considerations in the valuation of banks and bank holding companies. While that installment provided a general overview of key concepts, this month we pivot to the analysis of bank financial statements and performance.1 Unlike many privately held, less regulated companies, banks produce reams of financial reports covering every minutia of their operations. For analytical personality types, it’s a dream.The approach taken to analyze a bank’s performance, though, must recognize depositories’ unique nature, relative to non-financial companies. Differences between banks and non-financial companies include:Close interactions between the balance sheet and income statement. Banking revenues are connected tightly to the balance sheet, unlike for nonfinancial companies. In fact, you often can estimate a bank’s net income or the growth therein solely by reviewing several years of balance sheets. Banks have an “inventory” of assets that earn interest, referred to as “earning assets,” which drive most of their revenues. Earning assets include loans, securities (usually highly-rated bonds like Treasuries or municipal securities), and short-term liquid assets. Changes in the volume of assets and the mix of these assets, such as the relative proportions of lower yielding securities and higher yielding loans, significantly influence revenues.The value of liabilities. For non-financial companies, acquisition motivations seldom revolve around obtaining the target entity’s liabilities. The effective management of working capital and debt certainly influences shareholder value for non-financial companies, but few attempt to stockpile low-cost liabilities absent other business objectives. Banks, though, periodically buy and sell branches and their related deposits. The prices (or “premiums”) paid in these transactions reveal that bank deposits, the predominate funding source for banks, have discrete value. That is, banks actually pay for the right to assume another bank’s liabilities.Why do banks seek to acquire deposits? First, all earning assets must be funded; otherwise, the balance sheet would fail to balance. Ergo, more deposits allow for more earning assets. Second, retail deposits tend to cost less than other alternative sources of funds. Banks have access to wholesale funding sources, such as brokered deposits and Federal Home Loan Bank advances, but these generally have higher interest rates than retail deposits. Third, retail deposits are stable, due to the relationship existing between the bank and customer. This provides assurance to bank managers, investors, and regulators that a disruption to a wholesale funding source will not trigger a liquidity shortfall. Fourth, deposits provide a vehicle to generate noninterest income, such as service charges or interchange. The strength of a bank’s deposit portfolio, such as the proportion of noninterest-bearing deposits, therefore influences its overall profitability and franchise value.Capital Adequacy. In addition to board and shareholder preferences, nonfinancial companies often have debt covenants that constrain leverage. Banks, though, have an entire multi-pronged regulatory structure governing their allowable leverage. Shareholders’ equity and regulatory capital are not the same; however, the computation of regulatory capital begins with shareholders’ equity. Two types of capital metrics exist – leverage metrics and risk-based metrics. The leverage metric simply divides a measure of regulatory capital by the bank’s total assets, while risk-based metrics adjust the bank’s assets for their relative risk. For example, some government agency securities have a risk weight equal to 20% of their balance, while many loans receive a risk weight equal to 100% of their balance.Capital adequacy requirements have several influences on banks. Most importantly, failing to meet minimum capital ratios leads to severe repercussions, such as limitations on dividends and stricter regulatory oversight, and is (as you may imagine) deleterious to shareholder value. More subtly, capital requirements influence asset pricing decisions and balance sheet structure. That is, if two assets have the same interest rate but different risk weights, the value maximizing bank would seek to hold the asset with the lower risk weight. Stated differently, if a bank targets a specific return on equity, then the bank can accept a lower interest rate on an asset with a smaller risk weight and still achieve its overall return on equity objectives.Regulatory structure. In exchange for receiving a bank charter and deposit insurance, all facets of a bank’s operations are tightly regulated to protect the integrity of the banking system and, ultimately, the FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund that covers depositors of failed banks. Banks are rated under the CAMELS system, which contains categories for Capital, Asset Quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. Separately, banks receive ratings on information technology and trust activities. While a bank’s CAMELS score is confidential, these six categories provide a useful analytical framework for both regulators and investors.Understanding the Balance SheetWe now cover several components of a bank’s balance sheet.Short-Term Liquid Assets and SecuritiesBanks are, by their nature, engaged in liquidity transformation, whereby funds that can be withdrawn on demand (deposits) are converted into illiquid assets (loans). Several alternatives exist to mitigate the risk associated with this liquidity transformation, but one universal approach is maintaining a portfolio of on-balance sheet liquid assets. Additionally, banks maintain securities as a source of earning assets, particularly when loan demand is relatively limited.Liquid assets generally consist of highly-rated securities issued by the U.S. Treasury, various governmental agencies, and state and local governments, as well as various types of mortgage-backed securities. Relative to loans, banks trade off some yield for the liquidity and credit quality of securities. Key analytical considerations include:Portfolio Size. While there certainly are exceptions, most high performing banks seek to limit the size of the securities portfolio; that is, they emphasize the liquidity features of the securities portfolio, while generating earnings primarily from the loan portfolio.Portfolio Composition. The portfolio mix affects yield and risk. For example, mortgage-backed securities may provide higher yields than Treasuries, but more uncertainty exists as to the timing of cash flows. Also, the credit risk associated with any non-governmental securities, such as corporate bonds, should be identified.Portfolio “Duration.” Duration measures the impact of different interest rate environments on the value of securities; it may also be viewed as a measure of the life of the securities. One way to enhance yield often is to purchase securities with longer durations; however, this increases exposure to adverse price movements if interest rates increase.LoansA typical bank generates most of its revenue from interest income generated by the loan portfolio; further, the lending function presents significant risk in the event borrowers fail to perform under the contractual loan terms. While loans are more lucrative than securities from a yield standpoint, the cost of originating and servicing a loan portfolio – such as lender compensation – can be significant. Key analytical considerations include:Portfolio Composition. Bank financial statements include several loan portfolio categories, based on the collateral or purpose of each loan. Investors should consider changes in the portfolio over time and compare the portfolio mix to peer averages. Significant growth in a portfolio segment raises risk management questions, and regulatory guidance provides thresholds for certain types of real estate lending. Departures from peer averages may provide a sense of the subject bank’s credit risk, as well as the portfolio’s yield. Analysts may also wish to evaluate whether any concentrations exist, such as to certain industry niches or customer segments.Portfolio Duration. Banks compete with other banks (and non-banks in some cases) on interest rate, loan structure, and underwriting requirements. Most banks will say they do not compete on underwriting requirements, such as offering higher loan/value ratios, which leaves rate and structure. To attract borrowers, banks may offer more favorable loan structures, such as longer-term fixed rate loans. Viewed in isolation, this exposes banks to greater interest rate risk; however, this loan structure may be entirely justified in light of the interest rate risk of the entire balance sheet.Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses (“ALLL”)Banks maintain reserves against loans that have defaulted or may default in the future. While a new regime for determining the ALLL will be implemented beginning for some banks in 2020, the size of the ALLL under current and future accounting standards generally varies between banks based on (a) portfolio size, (b) portfolio composition, as certain loan types inherently possess greater risk of credit loss, (c) the level of problem or impaired loans, and (d) management’s judgment as to an appropriate ALLL level. Calculating the ALLL necessarily includes some qualitative inputs, such as regarding the outlook for the economy and business conditions, and reasonable bankers can disagree about an appropriate ALLL level. Key analytical considerations regarding the ALLL and overall asset quality include:ALLL Metrics. The ALLL – as a percentage of total loans, nonperforming loans, or loan charge-offs – can be benchmarked against the bank’s historical levels and peer averages. One shortcoming of the traditional ALLL methodology, which may or may not be remediated by the new ALLL methodology, is that reserves tend to be procyclical, meaning that reserves tend to decline leading into a recession (thereby enhancing earnings) but must be augmented during periods of economic stress when banks have less financial capacity to bolster reserves.Charge-Off Metrics. The ALLL decreases by charge-offs on defaulted loans, while recoveries on previously defaulted loans serve to increase the ALLL. One of the most important financial ratios compares loan charge-offs, net of recoveries, to total loans. Deviations from the bank’s historical performance should be investigated. For example, are the losses concentrated in one type of lending or widespread across the portfolio? Is the change due to general economic conditions or idiosyncratic factors unique to the bank’s portfolio? Is a new lending product performing as expected?Charge-off ratios also provide insight into the amount of credit risk accepted by a bank, relative to its peer group. However, credit losses should not be viewed in isolation – yields matter as well. It is safe to assume, though, that higher than peer charge-offs, coupled with lower than peer loan yields, is a poor combination. While banks strive to avoid credit losses, a lengthy period marked by virtually nil credit losses could suggest that the bank’s underwriting is too restrictive, sacrificing earnings for pristine credit quality.Loan Loss Provision. The loan loss provision increases the ALLL. A provision generally is necessary to offset periodic loan charge-offs, cover loan portfolio growth, and address risk migration as loans enter and exit impaired or nonperforming status.DepositsAs for loans, bank financial statements distinguish several deposit types, such as demand deposits and CDs. It is useful to decompose deposits further into retail (local customers) and wholesale (institutional) deposits. Key analytical considerations include:Portfolio Size. Deposit market share tends to shift relatively slowly; therefore, quickly raising substantial retail deposits is a difficult proposition. Banks with more rapid loan growth face this challenge acutely. Often these banks rely more significantly on rate sensitive deposits, such as CDs, or more costly wholesale funds. Therefore, analysts should consider the interaction between loan growth objectives and the availability and pricing of incremental deposits.Composition. Investors generally prefer a high ratio of demand deposits, because these accounts usually possess the lowest interest rates, the lowest attrition rates and interest rate sensitivity, and the highest noninterest income. Of course, these accounts also are the most expensive to gather and service, requiring significant investments in branch facilities and personnel. With that said, other successful models exist. Some banks minimize operating costs, but offer higher interest rates to depositors.Rate. Banks generally obtain rate surveys of their local market area, which provide insight into competitive conditions and the bank’s relative position. Also, it is useful to benchmark the bank’s cost of deposits against its peer group. Deposit portfolio composition plays a part in disparities between the subject bank and the peer group, as do regional differences in deposit competition.Shareholders’ Equity and Regulatory CapitalHistorical changes in equity cannot be understood without an equity roll-forward showing changes due to retained earnings, share sales and redemptions, dividends, and other factors. In our opinion, it is crucial to analyze the bank’s current equity position by reference to management’s business plan, as this will reveal amounts available for use proactively to generate shareholder returns (such as dividends, share repurchases, or acquisitions). Alternatively, the analysis may reveal the necessity of either augmenting equity through a stock offering or curtailing growth objectives.The computation of regulatory capital metrics can be obtained from a bank’s regulatory filings. Relative to shareholders’ equity, regulatory capital calculations: (a) exclude most intangible assets and certain deferred tax assets, and (b) include certain types of preferred stock and debt, as well as the ALLL, up to certain limits.Understanding the Income StatementThere are six primary components of the bank’s income statement:Net interest income, or the difference between the income generated by earning assets and the cost of funding.Noninterest income, which includes revenue from other services provided by the bank such as debit cards, trust accounts, or loans intended for sale in the secondary market. The sum of net interest income and noninterest income represents the bank’s total revenues.Noninterest expenses, which principally include employee compensation, occupancy costs, data processing fees, and the like. Income after noninterest expenses commonly is referred to by investors, but not by accountants, as “pre-tax, pre-provision operating income” (or “PPOI”).Loan loss provisionSecurity gains and lossesTaxesNet Interest IncomeThe previous analysis of the balance sheet foreshadowed this net interest income discussion with one important omission – the external interest rate environment. While banks attempt to mitigate the effect on performance of uncontrollable factors like market interest rates, some influence is unavoidable. For example, steeper yield curves generally are more accommodative to net interest income, while banks struggle with flat or inverted yield curves.Another critical financial metric is the net interest margin (“NIM”), measured as the yield on all earning assets minus the cost of funding those assets (or net interest income divided by earning assets). The NIM and net interest income are influenced by the following:The earning asset mix (higher yielding loans, versus lower yielding securities)Asset duration (longer duration earning assets usually receive higher yields)Credit risk (accepting more credit risk should enhance asset yields and NIM)Liability composition (retail versus wholesale deposits, or demand deposits versus CDs)Liability duration (longer duration liabilities usually have higher interest rates)Noninterest IncomeThe sensitivity of net interest income to uncontrollable forces – i.e., market interest rates – makes noninterest income attractive to bankers and investors. Banks generate noninterest income from a panoply of sources, including:Fees on deposit accounts, such as service charges, overdraft income, and debit card interchangeGains on the sale of loans, such as residential mortgage loans or government guaranteed small business loansTrust and wealth management incomeInsurance commissions on policies soldBank owned life insurance where the bank holds policies on employees Some sources of revenue can be even more sensitive to the interest rate environment than net interest income, such as income from residential mortgage originations. Yet other sources have their own linkages to uncontrollable market factors, such as revenues from wealth management activities tied to the market value of account assets. Expanding noninterest income is a holy grail in the banking industry, given limited capital requirements, revenue diversification benefits, and its ability to mitigate interest rate risk while avoiding credit risk. However, many banks’ fee income dreams have foundered on the rocks of reality for several reasons. First, achieving scale is difficult. Second, cross-sales of fee income products to banking customers are challenging. Third, significant cultural differences exist between, say, wealth management and banking operations. A fulsome financial analysis considers the opportunities, challenges, and risks presented by noninterest income.Noninterest ExpensesIn a mature business like banking, expense control always remains a priority.Personnel expenses. Personnel expenses account for 50-60% of total expenses. Significant changes in personnel expenses generally are tied to expansion initiatives, such as adding branches or hiring a lending team from a competitor. Regulatory filings include each bank’s full-time equivalent employees, permitting productivity comparisons between banks.Occupancy expenses. With the shift to digital delivery of banking services, occupancy expenses have remained relatively stable for many community banks, while larger banks have closed branches. Nevertheless, banks often conclude that entering a new market requires a beachhead in the form of a physical branch location.Other expenses. Regulatory filings lump remaining expenses into an “other” category, although audited financial statements usually provide greater detail. More significant contributors to the “other” category include data processing and information technology spending, marketing costs, and regulatory assessments.Loan Loss ProvisionWe covered this income statement component previously with respect to the ALLL.Income TaxesBanks generally report effective tax rates (or actual income tax expense divided by pre-tax income) below their marginal tax rates. This primarily reflects banks’ tax-exempt investments, such as municipal bonds; bank-owned life insurance income; and vehicles that provide for tax credits, like New Market Tax Credits. It is important to note that state tax regimes may differ for banks and non-banks. For example, some states assess taxes on deposits or equity, rather than income, and such taxes are not reported as income tax expense.Return DecompositionAs the preceding discussion suggests, many levers exist to achieve shareholder returns. One bank can operate with lean expenses, but pay higher deposit interest rates (diminishing its NIM) and deemphasize noninterest income. Another bank may pursue a true retail banking model with low cost deposits and higher fee income, offset by the attendant operating costs. There is not necessarily a single correct strategy. Different market niches have divergent needs, and management teams have varying areas of expertise. However, we still can compare the returns on equity (or net income divided by shareholders’ equity) generated by different banks to assess their relative performance.The figure below presents one way to decompose a bank’s return on equity relative to its peer group. This bank generates a higher return on equity than its peer group due to (a) a higher net interest margin, (b) a slightly lower loan loss provision, and (c) higher leverage (shown as the “equity multiplier” in the table).Income Statement MetricsThe figure below cites several common income statement metrics used by investors, as well as their strengths and shortcomings.Sources of InformationBanks file quarterly Call Reports, which are the launching pad for our templated financial analyses. Depending on asset size, bank holding companies file consolidated financial statements with the Federal Reserve. All bank holding companies, small and large, file parent company only financial statements, although the frequency differs. Other potentially relevant sources of information include:Audited financial statements and internal financial dataBoard packets, which often are sufficiently extensive to cover our information requirementsBudgets, projections, and capital plansAsset quality reports, such as criticized loan listings, delinquency reports, concentration analyses, documentation regarding ALLL adequacy, and special asset reports for problem loansInterest rate risk scenario analyses and inventories of the securities portfolioFederal Reserve form FR Y-6 provides the composition of the holding company’s board of directors and significant shareholders’ ownershipConclusionA rigorous examination of the bank’s financial performance, both relative to its history and a relevant peer group and with due consideration of appropriate risk factors, provides a solid foundation for a valuation analysis. As we observed in June’s BankWatch, value is dependent upon a given bank’s growth opportunities and risk factors, both of which can be revealed using the techniques described in this article.1 Given the variety of business models employed by banks, this article is inherently general. Some factors described herein will be more or less relevant (or even not relevant) to a specific bank, while it is quite possible that, for the sake of brevity, we altogether avoided mention of other factors relevant to a specific bank. Readers should therefore conduct their own analysis of a specific bank, taking into account its specific characteristics.Originally published in Bank Watch, August 2019.
Key Valuation Considerations for FinTech Purchase Price Allocations
Key Valuation Considerations for FinTech Purchase Price Allocations
FinTech M&A continues to be top of mind for the sector as larger players seek to grow and expand while founders and early investors look to monetize their investments.This theme was evident in several larger deals already announced in 2019 including Global Payments/Total System Services (TSYS), Fidelity National Information Services, Inc./Worldpay, Inc., and Fiserv, Inc./First Data Corporation.One important aspect of FinTech M&A is the purchase price allocation and the valuation estimates for goodwill and intangible assets as many FinTech companies have minimal physical assets and a high proportion of the purchase price is accounted for via goodwill and intangible assets.The majority of value creation for the acquirer and their shareholders will come from their investment in and future utilization of the intangibles of the FinTech target.To illustrate this point, consider that the median amount of goodwill and intangible assets was ~98% of the transaction price for FinTech transactions announced in 2018.Since such a large proportion of the transaction price paid for FinTech companies typically gets carried in the form of goodwill or intangibles on the acquirer’s balance sheet, the acquirer’s future earnings, tax expenses, and capitalization will often be impacted significantly from the depreciation and amortization expenses.When preparing valuation estimates for a purchase price allocation for a FinTech company, one key step for acquirers is identifying the intangible assets that will need to be valued.In our experience, the identifiable intangible assets for FinTech acquisitions often include the tradename, technology (both developed and in-development), noncompete agreements, and customer relationships.Additionally, there may be a need to consider the value of an earn-out arrangement if a portion of transaction consideration is contingent on future performance as this may need to be recorded as a contingent liability.Since the customer relationship intangible is often one of the more significant intangible assets to be recorded in FinTech acquisitions (both in $ amounts and as a % of the purchase price), we discuss how to value FinTech customer relationships in greater detail in the remainder of the article.Valuing Customer-Related AssetsFirms devote significant human and financial resources in developing, maintaining and upgrading customer relationships. In some instances, customer contracts give rise to identifiable intangible assets. More broadly, however, customer-related intangible assets consist of the information gleaned from repeat transactions, with or without underlying contracts. Firms can and do lease, sell, buy or otherwise trade such information, which are generally organized as customer lists.Since FinTech has some relatively varied niches including payments, digital lending, WealthTech, or InsurTech, the valuation of FinTech customer relationships can vary depending on the type of company and the niche that it operates in.While we do not delve into the key attributes to consider for each FinTech niche, we provide one illustration from the Payments niche.In the Payments industry, one key aspect to understand when evaluating customer relationships is where the company is in the payment loop and whether the company operates in a B2B (business-to-business) or B2C (business-to-consumer) model.This will drive who the customer is and the economics related to valuing the cash flows from the customer relationships.For example, merchant acquirers typically have contracts with the merchants themselves and the valuable customer relationship lies with the merchant and the dollar volume of transactions processed by the merchant over time, whereas the valuable relationship with other payments companies such as a prepaid or gift card company may lie with the end-user or consumer and their spending/card usage habits over time.Valuation ApproachesValuation involves three approaches: 1) the cost approach, 2) the market approach, and 3) the income approach. Customer relationships are typically valued based upon an income approach (i.e., a discounted cash flow method) where the cash flows that the customer relationships are expected to generate in the future are forecast and then discounted to the present at a market rate of return.Cost ApproachValuation under the cost approach requires estimation of the cost to replace the subject asset, as well as opportunity costs in the form of cash flows foregone as the replacement is sought or recreated. The cost approach may not be feasible when replacement or recreation periods are long. Therefore, the cost approach is used infrequently in valuing customer-related assets.Market ApproachUse of the market approach in valuing customer-related assets is generally untenable for FinTech companies because transactional data on sufficiently comparable assets are not likely to be available.Income ApproachUnder the income approach, customer-related assets are valued most commonly using the income approach. One method within the income approach that is often used to value FinTech customer relationships is the Multi-Period Excess Earnings Method (MPEEM).MPEEM involves the estimation of the cash flow stream attributable to a particular asset. The cash flow stream is discounted to the present to obtain an indication of fair value. The most common starting point in estimating future cash flows is the prospective financial information prepared by (or in close consultation with) the management of the subject business.The key valuation inputs are often estimates of the economic benefit of the customer relationship (i.e., the cash flow stream attributable to the relationships), customer attrition rate, and the discount rate.Three key attributes that are important when using these inputs to valuing customer relationships include:Repeat Patronage. The expectation of repeat patronage creates value for customer-related intangible assets. Contractual customer relationships formally codify the expectation of future transactions. Even in the absence of contracts, firms look to build on past interactions with customers to sell products and services in the future. Two aspects of repeat patronage are important in evaluating customer relationships. First, not all customer contact leads to an expectation of repeat patronage. The quality of interaction with walk-up retail customers, for instance, is generally considered inadequate to reliably lead to expectations of recurring business. Second, even in the presence of adequate information, not all expected repeat business may be attributable to customer-related intangible assets. Some firms operate in monopolistic or near-monopolistic industries where repeat patronage is directly attributable to a dearth of acceptable alternatives available to customers. In other cases, it may be more appropriate to attribute recurring business to the strength of the trade names, software platform, or brands.Attrition. Customer-related intangible assets create value over a finite period. Without efforts geared towards continual reinforcement, customer lists dwindle over time due to customer mortality, the ravages of competition, or the emergence of alternate products and services. The mechanics of present value mathematics further erode the economic benefits of sales to current customers in the distant future. Customer relationships are wasting assets whose economic value attrite with the passage of time.Other Assets.Customer-related intangible assets depend on the existence of other assets to provide value to the firm. Most assets, including fixed assets and intellectual property, are essential in creating products or providing services. The act of selling these products and services enable firms to develop relationships and collect information from customers. In turn, the value of these relationships depends on the firms’ ability to sell additional products and services in the future. Consequently, for firms to extract value from customer-related assets, a number of other assets need to be in place.ConclusionMercer Capital has experience providing valuation and advisory services to FinTech companies and their acquirers.We have valued customer-related and other intangible assets to the satisfaction of clients and their auditors within the FinTech industry across a multitude of niches (payments, wealth management, insurance, lending, and software).Most recently, we completed a purchase price allocation for a private equity firm that acquired a FinTech company in the Payments niche.Please contact us to explore how we can help you. Originally published in the Value Focus: FinTech Industry Newsletter, Mid Year 2019.
Bank M&A 2019 Mid-Year Update
Bank M&A 2019 Mid-Year Update
Through late July, M&A activity in 2019 is on pace to match the annual deal volume achieved in the last few years. Since 2014, approximately 4%-5% of banks have been absorbed each year via M&A. According to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, there were 136 announced transactions in the year-to-date period, which equates to 2.5% of the 5,406 FDIC-insured institutions that existed as of year-end 2018.In the first seven months of the year, aggregate deal volume reached $41.3 billion, which surpasses the $30.5 billion in announced deals in all of 2018 as shown in Figure 1. The increase primarily reflects the $28 billion BB&T-SunTrust merger that was announced on February 7 and represents the largest deal since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. While deal value is up, multiples are down relative to 2018 with the average P/TBV multiple declining from 174% to 161% and the median P/E multiple declining from 25.3x to 17.1x as shown in Figure 2, although the price/earnings multiples from the 2018 period may be distorted by the effects of tax reform. The tables below provide a more detailed look at deal activity and the change in multiples in 2019 relative to 2018. For banks with assets less than $500 million, P/TBV multiples declined approximately 5%. While deal volume in the $500 million to $1 billion size group somewhat limits the meaningfulness of comparisons, it’s interesting to note that the median P/TBV multiple increased for this group relative to 2018 while the median buyer size increased from $3.1 billion in assets to $6.8 billion. As shown in Figure 3 below, the landscape of buyers has shifted somewhat in favor of bigger banks over the last decade. Deal activity among the smallest group (buyers with assets less than $500 million) peaked in 2015 with 95 announced deals. In 2018, this group announced 56 acquisitions. In contrast, buyers with total assets between $10 billion-$50 billion announced a 10-year high, 28 deals in 2018 and are on pace to reach a similar level in 2019. In May 2018, the SIFI threshold was increased to $250 billion, providing immediate relief to banks with assets between $50 billion and $100 billion. For those with assets between $100 billion and $250 billion, regulatory relief will phase in after 18 months. This change is expected to encourage additional M&A activity among bigger players. The theme of the story hasn’t changed; consolidation of the banking industry continues at a pace on par with the historical average. Target banks with less than $500 million in assets continue to comprise 75%-85% of total deal volume, but the composition of the buyer universe does seem to be shifting. In addition to the move towards larger buyers, another trend that appears to be gaining speed is the acquisition of commercial banks by credit unions. In 2015, three of such transactions were announced. In 2018, nine deals by credit unions were announced, and an additional ten have been announced through late July of this year. As to be expected, pricing trends over the last few years have also further cemented the value of a stable and low-cost customer base. As shown in Figure 4 below, as interest rates increased from the end of 2015 through 2018, pricing diverged in favor of banks with the highest percentage of noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits. Mercer Capital has been providing transaction advisory and valuation services for over 30 years. To discuss a transaction or valuation issue in confidence, please contact us. Originally published in Bank Watch, July 2019.
Community Bank Valuation (Part 1): Financial Performance, Risk, and Growth
Community Bank Valuation (Part 1): Financial Performance, Risk, and Growth
This article begins a series focused on the two issues most central to our work at Mercer Capital: What drives value for a depository institution and how are these drivers distilled into a value for a given depository institution?We leave the more technical valuation discussion for subsequent articles. At its core, though, value is a function of a specified financial metric or metrics, growth, and risk.Financial MetricsMany industries have a valuation benchmark used by industry participants, although this metric does not necessarily cohere with benchmarks used by investors. In the banking industry, “book value” fills this role. In fact, there are several potential measures of book value, including:Stated shareholders’ equity, as indicated in the institution’s financial statementsTangible book value, which deducts purchase accounting intangible assets from stated shareholders’ equityTier 1 common equity, which is a regulatory capital measure that is less commonly used as a valuation metric The most commonly used book value metric is tangible book value (or TBV). Like most industry benchmarks, simplicity and commonality are reasons industry participants embrace TBV as a valuation metric. Strengths of TBV as a valuation metric include:It is reported frequently and comparable from institution to institution.TBV is subject to less pronounced volatility than net income; thus, valuation multiples computed using TBV may be less prone to exaggeration when, for example, earnings are temporarily depressed. TBV can be used to capture the mean reversion tendencies of return on equity (ROE). For example, consider an institution with an ROE exceeding its peer group. Over time, as competitors understand and replicate its business model, these excess returns may diminish. An analyst could use TBV multiples to model potential mean reversion in ROE, which is more difficult to capture using a current period price/earnings multiple. While TBV has its place, investors focus primarily on an institution’s earnings and the growth therein. This earnings orientation occurs because investors are forward looking, and TBV inherently is a backward-looking measure representing the sum of an institution’s common stock issuances, net income, dividends, and share redemptions since its inception. In addition to being forward-looking, investors also appreciate that earnings ultimately are the source of returns to shareholders. With earnings, the institution can do any of (or a combination of) the following:1Reinvest (i.e., retain earnings), with the goal of generating higher future earningsPay dividends to shareholdersRepurchase stock, which supports the per share value by reducing the outstanding sharesAcquire other companies. Because goodwill and intangible assets are deducted when computing regulatory capital, earnings offset the TBV dilution created in these transactions More bluntly, investors like growing earnings and cash returns (dividends or share repurchases), which are difficult to provide without a sustainable base of strong earnings. Investors will tolerate some near-term drag on earnings from expansion or risk mitigation strategies, but their patience is not limitless. In many industries, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) or a similar metric is the preferred earnings measure. However, banks derive most of their revenues from interest spreads, and EBITDA is an inappropriate metric. Instead, bank investors focus on net income and earnings per share. When credit quality is distressed, investors may consider earnings metrics calculated before the loan loss provision, such as pre-tax, pre-provision operating income (PPOI). While earnings-based analyses generally should have valuation primacy in our opinion, TBV multiples nevertheless serves as an important test of reasonableness for a valuation analysis. It would be foolhardy to develop a valuation for a depository institution without calculating the TBV multiple implied by the concluded value. Analysts should be able to reconcile implied TBV multiples to public market or M&A market benchmarks and explain any significant discrepancies. Occasionally, analysts cite balance sheet-based metrics beyond TBV, some of which have more analytical relevance than others. The most useful is a multiple of “core” deposits, a definition of deposits that excludes larger deposits and deposits obtained from wholesale funding markets. Core deposits are time consuming and costly to gather; thus, a multiple of core deposits aligns a bank’s value with its most attractive funding source. A less useful multiple is value as a percentage of total assets, the use of which would implicitly encourage management to stockpile assets without regard to their incremental profitability.GrowthInvestors like growth and accelerating growth even more. Without demonstrating the mathematics, higher expected growth rates produce higher valuation multiples. Further, price/earnings multiples expand at an increasing rate as growth rates increase, as indicated in the following chart. The opposite is true, too, as slowing growth reduces the price/earnings. Banks report innumerable metrics to directors and investors, but what are the most relevant growth indicia to investors? Usually, investors focus on growth in the following: Balance sheet components like loans and deposits, which ultimately drive revenue growthAsset quality and capital adequacyPre-tax, pre-provision operating income, which smooths earnings fluctuations caused by periodic volatility in provisions for loan lossesNet income per shareDividends per shareTangible book value per share Valuation is inherently forward-looking, and historical growth rates are useful mostly as potential predictors of future growth. Further, most investors understand that there is some tradeoff between earnings today and investing for higher earnings in the future. While some near-term pressure on earnings from an expansion strategy is acceptable, strategic investments should not continually be used to explain below average profitability. After all, a bank’s competitors likely are reinvesting as well for the future. How does growth affect value? As a thought experiment, consider a bank with no expected growth in earnings and a 100% dividend payout ratio. Should this bank’s common equity value increase? In this admittedly extreme scenario, the answer is no. This bank’s common equity resembles a preferred stock investment, with a shareholder’s return generated by dividends. That is, for value to grow, one (or preferably more) of the preceding factors must increase. Should a bank prioritize growth in earnings per share, dividends per share, or another metric? The answer likely depends on the bank’s shareholder base. In public markets, investors tend to be more focused on earnings per share growth. If an investor desires income, he or she can sell shares in the public market. For privately-held banks, though, investors often are keenly aware of dividend payments and emphasize the income potential of the investment. Of course, sustaining higher dividend payments requires earnings growth. Growth creates a virtuous cycle – retained earnings lead to higher future net income, allowing for future higher dividends or additional reinvestment, and so the cycle continues. One important caveat exists, though. This virtuous cycle presumes that the retained earnings from a given year are invested in new opportunities yielding the same return on equity as the existing operations. If reinvestment occurs in lower ROE opportunities – such as liquid assets supported by excess capital beyond the level needed to operate the bank safely – then growth in value may be diminished. This discussion of growth segues into the third key valuation factor, risk.RiskMore than most industries, risk management is an overarching responsibility of management and the board of directors and a crucial element to long-term shareholder returns. Banks encounter the following forms of risk:Credit risk, or the risk that the bank’s investments in loans and other assets may not be repaid in full or on a timely basisLiquidity risk, or the risk that arises from transforming liabilities that are due on demand (deposits) into illiquid assets (loans)Interest rate risk, or the risk attributable to assets and liabilities with mismatched pricing structures or durationsOperational risk, such as from malevolent actors like computer hackers While growth rates are observable from reported financial metrics, the risk assumed to achieve that growth often is more difficult to discern – at least in the near-term. Risk can accumulate, layer upon layer, for years until a triggering event happens, such as an economic downturn. Risk also is asymmetric in the sense that a strategy creating incremental risk, such as a new lending product, can be implemented quickly, but exiting the problems resulting from that strategy may take years. From a valuation standpoint, investors seek the highest return for the least risk. Given two banks with identical growth prospects, investors would assign a higher price/earnings multiple to the bank with the lower risk profile. Indicia of risk include:The launch of new products or business lines » Expansion into new geographic marketsHigher than average loan yields coupled with lower than average loan losses None of the preceding factors necessarily imply higher risk vis-à-vis other banks; the key is risk management, not risk avoidance. However, if an investor believes risk is rising for any reason, then that expectation can manifest in our three pronged valuation framework as follows:Financial Metric. The investor may view a bank’s current earnings as unsustainable once the risk associated with a business strategy becomes evident, leading to reduced expectations of future profitability.Growth. An investor may assess that a bank’s growth rates are exaggerated by accepting too much risk in pursuing growth. In this event, earnings growth expectations would be tempered as the bank realigns its growth, risk, and return objectives.Risk. Valuation multiples are inversely related to risk. By increasing the investor’s required return, the investor increases his or her margin of safety in the event of unfavorable financial developments. An old adage is that risk can be quantified and uncertainty cannot. This observation explains why stock prices and pricing multiples can be particularly volatile for banks in periods of economic uncertainty or distress. If investors cannot quantify a bank’s downside exposure, which often is more attributable to general economic anxieties than the quality of the bank’s financial disclosures, then they tend to react by taking a pessimistic stance. As a result, risk premiums can widen dramatically, leading to lower multiples.ConclusionThis article provides an overview of the three key factors underlying bank stock valuations – financial performance, risk, and growth. While these three factors are universal to valuations, we caution that the examples, guidance, and observations in this article may not apply to every depository institution.At Mercer Capital, valuations of clients’ securities are more than a mere quantitative exercise. Integrating a bank’s growth prospects and risk characteristics into a valuation analysis requires understanding the bank’s history, business plans, market opportunities, response to emerging technological issues, staff experience, and the like. These important influences on a valuation analysis cannot be gleaned solely from reviewing a bank’s Call Report. Future editions of this series will describe both the quantitative and qualitative considerations we use to arrive at sound, well-reasoned, and well-supported valuations.1 In theory, a bank could accomplish the preceding without earnings, but eventually that well (i.e., the bank’s TBV) will run dryOriginally published in Bank Watch, June 2019.
2019 AAML/BVR National Divorce Conference Recap
2019 AAML/BVR National Divorce Conference Recap
On May 8-10, 2019, Chris Mercer, Scott Womack, and I attended the 2019 AAML/BVR National Divorce Conference in Las Vegas. This was the first biannual National Divorce Conference on cutting edge tax, valuation, and financial issues co-sponsored by the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers and Business Valuation Resources, LLC.In attendance were family law attorneys, general practice attorneys, CPAs, business valuators, and other financial professionals. Total attendance was approximately 300 individuals, split about 50/50 between attorneys and financial professionals. Sessions covered topics including updates on standards of value, cryptocurrencies and their impact on divorce, tax law changes and their impact on family law, and how to best present your case to the courtroom, among others.We have chosen four sessions that we thought would be of interest to this newsletter’s audience.Blockchain/Crypto: Dividing Digital AssetsEdward L. Kainen, Senior Managing Partner of Kainen Law Group, PLLC & Richard West, Principal & Shareholder of West Family Law Group In “Blockchain/Crypto: Dividing Digital Assets,” Ed Kainen and Richard West provided a brief history of money– from the development of various forms of currencies and eventually to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In addition to providing a comprehensive glossary of essential terminology, the speakers also covered how Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are transacted and explained the mechanics of Bitcoin technology upon which cryptocurrencies rely. A history of Bitcoin, as well as the benefits, determinants and consequences associated with the use of these cryptocurrencies was addressed. The session also covered how all of the foregoing impacts divorce and family law litigation, both issues of valuation and essentials of discovery, as well as the potential for malpractice pitfalls and how to avoid them.How to Present Complex Finance to Judges: K.I.S.S.Z. Christopher Mercer, FASA, CFA, ABAR, Founder and CEO of Mercer Capital In “How to Present Complex Finance to Judges: K.I.S.S.,” Chris Mercer addressed the question of how to K.I.S.S. (keep it simple, stupid) in a litigation setting, as the K.I.S.S. principle is one of the key ideas of effective communication. Mr. Mercer drew on over 30 years of experience in presenting complex valuation and damages issues to judges and juries while sharing the techniques and templates necessary to communicate one’s position and the opponent’s position in such a way that judges can understand key information and why it is important.How to Rig a Valuation in a Marital DisputeJames R. Hitchner, CPA, ABV, CFF, ASA, Managing Director of Financial Valuation Advisors In this session, Jim Hitcher posed the question: Have you ever read a business valuation report where you knew the valuation was rigged to obtain a higher or lower value? During his session, he provided tricks of the trade to identify how some valuation analysts can manipulate the process in order to please their client and/or win at all costs. Mr. Hitchner also provided tips on how to attack biases including three areas with the most frequent biases such as multiples, growth factors, and the specific company risk premium/risk factor.Splitting Compensation Equity Awards & Options – Splitting Up is Hard to DoPeter L. Gladstone, Principal & Shareholder of Gladstone and Weissman & Robert A. Stone, CPA, CFF, ABV, Principal at Kaufman Rossin  In this session, Peter Gladstone and Robert Stone provided background on equity awards and options as the increase of startups precipitated by the tech boom of the 1990s has led to increasing popularity of stock options, restricted stock units (“RSUs”), and similar types of equity-based compensation. These forms of executive compensation have become common in both privately held and publically traded companies. Designed to both reward and retain talented employees, these benefits can be difficult to understand and value, particularly at a random moment that, while relevant to one’s divorce, might seem arbitrary in the context of a business. Just as the value of closely held businesses presents challenging issues over which business valuation experts often disagree, equity-based compensation plans and their values (or future income stream) represent ground for a divergence of opinions among forensic accountants supporting counsel on behalf of their divorce clients. During the session, the speakers examined the various characteristics of stock options, RSUs, both vested and unvested; their tax implications; and the challenges typically encountered in valuing and equitably distributing these valuable and highly guarded assets of a marital estate. All the sessions were well-received, and we recommend these presentations and their authors’ publications to anyone interested. We’re looking forward to next year’s event and hope to see you there. Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, Second Quarter 2019.
8 Things to Know About Section 409A
8 Things to Know About Section 409A
1. What is Section 409A?Section 409A is a provision of the Internal Revenue Code that applies to all companies offering nonqualified deferred compensation plans to employees. Generally speaking, a deferred compensation plan is an arrangement whereby an employee (“service provider” in 409A parlance) receives compensation in a later tax year than that in which the compensation was earned. “Nonqualified” plans exclude 401(k) and other “qualified” plans.What is interesting from a valuation perspective is that stock options and stock appreciation rights (SARs), two common forms of incentive compensation for private companies, are potentially within the scope of Section 409A. The IRS is concerned that stock options and SARs issued “in the money” are really just a form of deferred compensation, representing a shifting of current compensation to a future taxable year. So, in order to avoid being subject to 409A, employers (“service recipients”) need to demonstrate that all stock options and SARs are issued “at the money” (i.e., with the strike price equal to the fair market value of the underlying shares at the grant date). Stock options and SARs issued “out of the money” do not raise any particular problems with regard to Section 409A.2. What are the consequences of Section 409A?Stock options and SARs that fall under Section 409A create problems for both service recipients and service providers. Service recipients are responsible for normal withholding and reporting obligations with respect to amounts includible in the service provider’s gross income under Section 409A. Amounts includible in the service provider’s gross income are also subject to interest on prior underpayments and an additional income tax equal to 20% of the compensation required to be included in gross income. For the holder of a stock option, this can be particularly onerous as, absent exercise of the option and sale of the underlying stock, there has been no cash received with which to pay the taxes and interest.These consequences make it critical that stock options and SARs qualify for the exemption under 409A available when the fair market value of the underlying stock does not exceed the strike price of the stock option or SAR at the grant date.3. What constitutes “reasonable application of a reasonable valuation method”?For public companies, it is easy to determine the fair market value of the underlying stock on the grant date. For private companies, fair market value cannot be simply looked up on Bloomberg. Accordingly, for such companies, the IRS regulations provide that “fair market value may be determined through the reasonable application of a reasonable valuation method.” In an attempt to clarify this clarification, the regulations proceed to state that if a method is applied reasonably and consistently, such valuations will be presumed to represent fair market value, unless shown to be grossly unreasonable. Consistency in application is assessed by reference to the valuation methods used to determine fair market value for other forms of equity-based compensation. An independent appraisal will be presumed reasonable if “the appraisal satisfies the requirements of the Code with respect to the valuation of stock held in an employee stock ownership plan.”A reasonable valuation method is to consider the following factors:The value of tangible and intangible assetsThe present value of future cash flowsThe market value of comparable businesses (both public and private)Other relevant factors such as control premiums or discounts for lack of marketabilityWhether the valuation method is used consistently for other corporate purposesIn other words, a reasonable valuation considers the cost, income, and market approaches, and considers the specific control and liquidity characteristics of the subject interest. For start-up companies, the valuation would also consider the company’s most recent financing round and the rights and preferences of any securities issued. The IRS is also concerned that the valuation of common stock for purposes of Section 409A be consistent with valuations performed for other purposes.4. How is fair market value defined?Fair market value is not specifically defined in Section 409A of the Code or the associated regulations. Accordingly, we look to IRS Revenue Ruling 59-60, which defines fair market value as “the price at which the property would change hands between a willing buyer and a willing seller when the former is not under any compulsion to buy and the latter is not under any compulsion to sell, both parties having reasonable knowledge of relevant facts.”5. Does fair market value incorporate a discount for lack of marketability?Among the general valuation factors to be considered under a reasonable valuation method are “control premiums or discounts for lack of marketability.” In other words, if the underlying stock is illiquid, the stock should presumably be valued on a non-marketable minority interest basis.This is not without potential confusion, however. In an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP), stock issued to participants is generally covered by a put right with respect to either the Company or the ESOP. Accordingly, valuation specialists often apply marketability discounts on the order of 0% to 10% to ESOP shares. Shares issued pursuant to a stock option plan may not have similar put rights attached, and therefore may warrant a larger marketability discount. In such cases, a company that has an annual ESOP appraisal may not have an appropriate indication of fair market value for purposes of Section 409A.6. Are formula prices reliable measures of fair market value?In addition to independent appraisals, formula prices may, under certain circumstances, be presumed to represent fair market value. Specifically, the formula cannot be unique to the subject stock option or SAR, but must be used for all transactions in which the issuing company buys or sells stock.7. What are the rules for start-ups?For purposes of Section 409A compliance, start-ups are defined as companies that have been in business for less than ten years, do not have publicly traded equity securities, and for which no change of control event or public offering is reasonably anticipated to occur in the next twelve months. For start-up companies, a valuation will be presumed reasonable if “made reasonably and in good faith and evidenced by a written report that takes into account the relevant factors prescribed for valuations generally under these regulations.” Further, such a valuation must be performed by someone with “significant knowledge and experience or training in performing similar valuations.”This presumption, while presented as a separate alternative, strikes us a substantively and practically similar to the independent appraisal presumption described previously. Some commentators have suggested that the valuation of a start-up company may be performed by an employee or board member of the issuing company. We suspect that it is the rare employee or board member that is actually qualified to render the described valuation. The bottom line is that Section 409A applies to both start-ups and mature companies.8. Who is qualified to determine fair market value?The safe harbor presumptions of Section 409A apply only when the valuation is based upon an independent appraisal, and it is likely that a valuation prepared by an employee or board member would raise questions of independence and objectivity.The regulations also clarify that the experience of the individual performing the valuation generally means at least five years of relevant experience in business valuation or appraisal, financial accounting, investment banking, private equity, secured lending, or other comparable experience in the line of business or industry in which the service recipient operates.In our reading of the rules, this means that the appraisal should be prepared by an individual or firm that has a thorough educational background in finance and valuation, has accrued significant professional experience preparing independent appraisals, and has received formal recognition of his or her expertise in the form of one or more professional credentials (ASA, ABV, CBA, or CFA). The valuation professionals at Mercer Capital have the depth of knowledge and breadth of experience necessary to help you navigate the potentially perilous path of Section 409A. Originally published in the Financial Reporting Update: Equity Compensation, June 2019.
Shelf Life of an Equity Compensation Valuation
Shelf Life of an Equity Compensation Valuation
Clients frequently want to know, “How long is an equity compensation valuation good for?” We get it. You want to provide employees, contractors, and other service providers who are compensated through company stock with current information about their interests, but the time and cost required to get a valuation must also be considered.Due to the natural business changes every company goes through, accounting and legal professionals often recommend updates at least annually if no significant change or financing has occurred.However, unique company or market characteristics often necessitate more frequent updates. Here are some of the factors to consider when determining the need for a valuation update:Significant changes in the company’s financial situationShift in overall strategyAchievement of business milestonesChanges in market or industry conditionsGain or loss of major customer accountsAdditional fundingIssuance of new equity compensationPotential for an upcoming IPOChanges in expectation as to the timing of an exit eventEven for companies that have fairly steady operations, the effects of small business changes accumulate over time. Companies that deal with major changes relatively infrequently may be suited to regular summary updates to supplement full comprehensive reports as a way to maximize the cost-benefit analysis of equity compensation valuation. Originally published in the Financial Reporting Update: Equity Compensation, June 2019.
Simple vs. Complex  Capital Structures
Simple vs. Complex Capital Structures
Executives expend a great deal of effort to determine the optimal way to finance the operations of their businesses.  This may involve bringing on outside investors, employing bank debt, or financing through cash flow. Once the money has hit the bank, they may wonder, what effect does the capitalization of my company have on the value of its equity?A company with a simple capital structure typically has been financed through the issuance of one class of stock (usually common stock).  Companies with complex capital structures, on the other hand, may include other instruments: multiple classes of stock, forms of convertible debt, options, and warrants.  This is frequent in startup or venture-backed companies that receive financing through multiple channels or fundraising rounds and private equity sources.With various types of stock on the cap table, it is important to note that all stock classes are not the same.  Each class holds certain rights, preferences, and priorities of return that can confer a portion of enterprise value to the shares besides their pro rata allocation.  These often come in two categories: economic rights and control rights.  Economic rights bestow financial benefits while control rights grant benefits related to operations and decision making.Economic rights:Liquidation preferenceDividendsMandatory redemption rightsConversion rightsParticipation rightsAnti-dilution rightsRegistration rightsControl rights:Voting rightsProtective provisionsVeto rightsBoard composition rightsDrag-along rightsRight to participate in future rounds (pro-rata rights)First refusal rightsTag-along rightsManagement rightsInformation rights The value of a certain class of stock is affected both by the rights and preferences it holds as well as those held by the other share classes on the cap table.  The presence of multiple preferred classes also brings up the issue of seniority as certain class privileges may be overruled by those of a more senior share class. Complex capital structures require complex valuation models that can integrate and prioritize the special treatments of individual share classes in multi-class cap tables.  As such, models such as the PWERM or OPM are better-suited for these types of circumstances. Originally published in the Financial Reporting Update: Equity Compensation, June 2019.
Calibrating or Reconciling Valuation Models to Transactions in a Company’s Equity
Calibrating or Reconciling Valuation Models to Transactions in a Company’s Equity
When an exit event is not imminent, the appropriate models to measure the fair value of a company with a complex capital stack are the Probability Weighted Expected Return Method (PWERM), the Option Pricing Method (OPM), or some combination of the two.  While the choice of the model(s) is often dictated by facts and circumstances – for example, the company’s stage of development, visibility into exit avenues, etc. – using either the PWERM or the OPM requires a number of key assumptions that may be difficult to source or support for pre-public, often pre-profitable, companies.  In this context, primary or secondary transactions involving the company’s equity instruments, which may or may not be identical to common shares, can be useful in measuring fair value or evaluating overall reasonableness of valuation conclusions.For companies granting equity-based compensation, transactions are likely to take the form of either issuances of preferred shares as part of fundraising rounds or secondary transactions of equity instruments (preferred or common shares, as part of a fundraising round or on a standalone basis).  Fundraising rounds usually do not provide pricing indications for common shares (or options on common) directly.  However, a backsolve exercise that calibrates the PWERM and/or the OPM to the price of the new-issue preferred shares can provide value indications for the entire enterprise and common shares.  While standalone secondary transactions may involve common shares, facts and circumstances around those transactions may determine the usefulness of related pricing information for any calibration or reconciliation exercise.  Calibration, when viable, provides not only comfort around the overall soundness of valuation models and assumptions, but also a platform on which future value measurements can be based.This article presents a brief discussion on evaluating observed or prospective transactions.  Not all transactions are created equal – a fair value analysis should consider the facts and circumstances around the transactions to assess whether (and the degree to which) they are useful and relevant, or not.1Fair ValueASC 718 Compensation-Stock Compensation defines fair value as “the amount at which an asset (or liability) could be bought (or incurred) or sold (or settled) in a current transaction between willing parties, that is, other than in a forced or liquidation sale.”  ASC 820 Fair Value Measurement defines fair value as “the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date.”  While some of the finer nuances may differ slightly, both definitions make reference to the concepts of i) willing and informed buyers and sellers, and ii) orderly transactions.Notably, ASC 820 includes the directive that “valuation techniques used to measure fair value shall maximize the use of relevant observable inputsÉand minimize the use of unobservable inputs.”  We take this to mean that pricing information from transactions should be used in the measurement (valuation) process as long as they are relevant from a fair value perspective.Willing and Informed PartiesA fundraising round involving new investors, assuming the company is not in financial distress, tends to involve negotiations between sophisticated buyers (investors) and informed sellers (issuing companies).  As such, these transactions are relevant in measuring the fair value of equity instruments, including those granted as compensation.When a fundraising round does not involve new investors, the parties to the transaction are not necessarily independent of each other.  However, such a round may still be relevant from a fair value perspective if pricing resulted from robust negotiations or was otherwise reflective of market pricing.Secondary Transactions – Orderly Transactions?As they give rise to observable inputs, secondary transactions can be relevant in the measurement process if the pricing information is reflective of fair value.  Pricing from transactions in an active market for an identical equity instrument would generally reflect fair value.  In other cases, orderly transactions Ð those that have received adequate exposure to the appropriate market, allowed sufficient marketing activities, and were not forced or distressed Ð can give rise to transaction prices that are reconcilable with fair value.  Orderly secondary transactions that are relatively larger and those that involve equity instruments similar to the subject interests are more relevant.Strategic ElementsSome fundraising rounds involve strategic investors who may receive economic benefits beyond just the ownership interest in the company.  The strategic benefits could be codified in explicit contracts like a licensing arrangement.  Consideration paid for equity interests acquired in such transactions may exceed the price a market participant (with no strategic interests) would consider reasonable.  However, even as the pricing indication from such a transaction may not be directly relevant, it can be a useful reference or benchmark in measuring fair value.  For example, it may be possible to estimate the excess economic benefits accruing to the strategic investors.  Any fair value indication obtained separately could then be compared and reconciled to the price from the strategic fundraising rounds.In other instances, strategic rounds may result in the company and investors sharing equally in the excess economic benefits.  The transaction price could then be reflective of fair value, and a backsolve analysis to calibrate to the transaction price would be viable.More Complex StructuresA tranched preferred investment may segment the purchase of equity interests into multiple installments.  Pricing for such a round is usually set before the transaction and is identical across the installments, but future cash infusions may be contingent on specified milestones.  Value of a company usually increases upon achieving technical, regulatory, or financial milestones.  Even when future installments are not contingent on specified milestones, value may increase over time as the company makes progress on its business plan.  Pricing set before the first installment tends to reflect a premium to the value of the company at the initial transaction date as it likely includes some expectation of potential economic upside from future installments.  On the other hand, the same price may reflect a discount from the value of the company at future installment dates as the investments are (only) made once the economic upside is realized.  Accordingly, a reconciliation to pricing information from these fundraising rounds may require separate estimates of the expectation of future upside (for the initial transaction date) and future values implied by the initial terms of the transaction (for later installment dates).Some fundraising rounds involve purchases of a mix of equity instruments across the capital stack (i.e. different vintages of preferred and/or common) for the same or similar stated price per share.  Usually, common shares involved in mixed purchases represent secondary transactions.  From a fair value perspective, the transaction could be relevant in the aggregate and provide a basis to discern prices for each class of equity involved (considering the differences in rights and preferences among the classes).  In other instances, either the company or the investor may have entered into a transaction for additional strategic benefits beyond just the economics reflected in the share prices.  Depending on whether the buyer or the seller expects the additional strategic benefits, reported pricing may exceed the fair value of common shares or understate the value of the preferred shares.  In yet other instances, mixed purchases at the same or similar prices may indicate a high likelihood of an initial public offering (IPO) in the near future.  Typically, preferred shares convert into common at IPO and only one class of share exists subsequently.Timing of Transactions and Other EventsPerhaps obviously, for both secondary and primary transactions, more proximate pricing indications are generally more directly useful for fair value measurement.  Older, orderly transactions involving willing and informed parties would have been reflective of fair value at the time they occurred.  If a more recent pricing observation is not available, current value indications could still be reconciled with the older transactions by considering changes at the company (and general market conditions) since the transaction date.Planned future fundraising rounds could also provide useful information.  In addition to the factors already addressed, a fair value analysis at the measurement date would need to consider the risk around the closing of the transaction.Besides the usual transactions, other events that occur subsequent to the measurement date could still have a bearing on fair value.  Future events that were known or knowable to market participants at the valuation date should be considered in measuring fair value.  Events that were not known or knowable, but were still quite significant, may require separate disclosures.Special Case – IPOsAn example of a special event on the horizon is an impending IPO.  An IPO is usually a complex process that is executed over a relatively long period.  At various points during the process, the company’s board or management, or the underwriter (investment banker) may project or estimate the IPO price.  These estimates may change frequently or significantly until the actual IPO price is finalized.  Even the actual IPO price may be subject to specific supply and demand conditions in the market at or near the date of final pricing.  Subsequent trading often occurs at prices that vary (sometimes drastically) from the IPO price.  For these reasons, estimates or actual IPO prices are unlikely to be reflective of fair value for pre-IPO companies.Setting aside the uncertainties and idiosyncrasies around the process, an IPO provides ready liquidity for investors and access to public capital markets for the company.  The act of going public ameliorates the risks associated with the lack of marketability of investments in a company.  Easier access to public markets generally lowers the cost of capital, which would engender higher enterprise values.  Accordingly, fair value of a minority equity interest prior to an IPO is generally perceived to be meaningfully different from (estimates of) the IPO price.ConclusionIncorporating information from observed or prospective transactions can help calibrate the PWERM or the OPM (or other valuation methods), along with the underlying assumptions.  However, a valuation analysis should evaluate the transactions to assess whether they are relevant.  Even when they are not directly relevant, transactions can help gauge the reasonableness of valuation conclusions.Valuation specialists are fond of thinking their craft involves a blend of technique and judgment.  The specific mechanics of models and methods, and related computations, represent the technical aspect.  There is certainly some judgment involved in developing or selecting the assumptions that feed into the models.  Judgment plays a bigger role, perhaps, in weaving together the models, assumptions, valuation conclusions, and other facts and circumstances, including transactions, into a coherent and compelling narrative.Contact Mercer Capital with your valuation needs. We combine technical knowledge and judgment developed over decades of practice to serve our clients.1   The discussion presented in this article is a summary of our reading of the relevant sections in the following:Valuation of Privately-Held-Company Equity Securities Issued as Compensation, AICPA Accounting & Valuation Guide, 2013Valuation of Portfolio Company Investments of Venture Capital and Private Equity Funds and Other Investment Companies, Working Draft of AICPA Accounting & Valuation Guide, 2018 Originally published in the Financial Reporting Update: Equity Compensation, June 2019.
Valuation Methods for Private Company Equity-Based Compensation
Valuation Methods for Private Company Equity-Based Compensation
Equity-based compensation has been a key part of compensation plans for years.  When the equity compensation involves a publicly traded company, the current value of the stock is known and so the valuation of share-based payments is relatively straightforward.  However, for private companies, the valuation of the enterprise and associated share-based compensation can be quite complex.The AICPA Accounting & Valuation Guide, Valuation of Privately-Held-Company Equity Securities Issued as Compensation, describes four criteria that should be considered when selecting a method for valuing equity securities:Going Concern.  The method should align with the going-concern status of the company, including expectations about future events and the timing of cash flows.  For example, if acquisition of the company is imminent, then expectations regarding the future of the enterprise as a going concern are not particularly relevant.Common Share Value.  The method should assign some value to the common shares, unless the company is in liquidation with no expected distributions to common shareholders.Independent Replication.  It is important that the results of the method used by a valuation specialist can be independently replicated or approximated using the same underlying data and assumptions.  When completing the valuation, proprietary practices and models should not be the primary method of determining value.Complexity and Stage of Development.  The complexity of the method selected should be appropriate to the company’s stage of development. In other words, a simpler valuation method (like an OPM) with fewer underlying assumptions may be more appropriate for an early-stage entity with few employees than a highly complex method (like a PWERM). With these considerations in mind, let’s take a closer look at the four most common methods used to value private company equity securities.Current Value Method (CVM)The Current Value Method estimates the total equity value of the company on a controlling basis (assuming an immediate sale) and subtracts the value of the preferred classes based on their liquidation preferences or conversion values.  The residual is then allocated to common shareholders. Because the CVM is concerned only with the value of the company on the valuation date, assumptions about future exit events and their timing are not needed. The advantage of this method is that it is easy to implement and does not require a significant number of assumptions or complex modeling.However, because the CVM is not forward looking and does not consider the option-like payoffs of the share classes, its use is generally limited to two circumstances. First, the CVM could be employed when a liquidity event is imminent (such as a dissolution or an acquisition). The second situation might be when an early-stage company has made no material progress on its business plan, has had no significant common equity value created above the liquidation preference of the preferred shares, and for which no reasonable basis exists to estimate the amount or timing of when such value might be created in the future.Generally speaking, once a company has raised an arm’s-length financing round (such as venture capital financing), the CVM is no longer an appropriate method.Probability-Weighted Expected Return Method (PWERM)The Probability-Weighted Expected Return Method is a multi-step process in which value is estimated based on the probability-weighted present value of various future outcomes.  First, the valuation specialist works with management to determine the range of potential future outcomes for the company, such as IPO, sale, dissolution, or continued operation until a later exit date.  Next, future equity value under each scenario is estimated and allocated to each share class.  Each outcome and its related share values are then weighted based on the probability of the outcome occurring.  The value for each share class is discounted back to the valuation date using an appropriate discount rate and divided by the number of shares outstanding in the respective class.The primary benefit of the PWERM is its ability to directly consider the various terms of shareholder agreements, rights of each class, and the timing when those rights will be exercised. The method allows the valuation specialist to make specific assumptions about the range, timing, and outcomes from specific future events, such as higher or lower values for a strategic sale versus an IPO.  The PWERM is most appropriate to use when the period of time between the valuation date and a potential liquidity event is expected to be short.Of course, the PWERM also has limitations.  PWERM models can be difficult to implement because they require detailed assumptions about future exit events and cash flows.  Such assumptions may be difficult to support objectively. Further, because it considers only a specific set of outcomes (rather than a full distribution of possible outcomes), the PWERM may not be appropriate for valuing option-like payoffs like profit interests or warrants. In certain cases, analysts may also need to consider interim cash flows or the impact of future rounds of financing.Option Pricing Model (OPM)The Option Pricing Model treats each class of shares as call options on the total equity value of the company, with exercise prices based on the liquidation preferences of the preferred stock. Under this method, common shares would have material value only to the extent that residual equity value remains after satisfaction of the preferred stock’s liquidation preference at the time of a liquidity event. The OPM typically uses the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model to price the various call options.In contrast to the PWERM, the OPM begins with the current total equity value of the company and estimates the future distribution of outcomes using a lognormal distribution around that current value. This means that two of the critical inputs to the OPM are the current value of the firm and a volatility assumption. Current value of the firm might be estimated with a discounted cash flow method or market methods (for later-stage firms) or inferred from a recent financing transaction using the backsolve method (for early-stage firms). The volatility assumption is usually based upon the observed volatilities of comparable public companies, with potential adjustment for the subject entity’s financial leverage.The OPM is most appropriate for situations in which specific future liquidity events are difficult to forecast.  It can accommodate various terms of stockholder agreements that affect the distributions to each class of equity upon a liquidity event, such as conversion ratios, cash allocations, and dividend policy. Further, the OPM considers these factors as of the future liquidity date, rather than as of the valuation date.The primary limitations of the OPM are its assumption that future outcomes can be modeled using a lognormal distribution and its reliance on (and sensitivity to) key assumptions like assumed volatility. The OPM also does not explicitly allow for dilution caused by additional financings or the issuance of options or warrants.  The OPM can only consider a single liquidity event. As such, the method does not readily accommodate the right or ability of preferred shareholders to early-exercise (which would limit the upside for common shareholders). The potential for early-exercise might be better captured with a lattice or simulation model.  For an in-depth discussion on the OPM, see our whitepaper A Layperson’s Guide to the Option Pricing Model at mer.cr/2azLnB.Hybrid MethodThe Hybrid Method is a combination of the PWERM and the OPM.  It uses probability-weighted scenarios, but with an OPM to allocate value in one or more of the scenarios.The Hybrid Method might be employed when a company has visibility regarding a particular exit path (such as a strategic sale) but uncertainties remain if that scenario falls through. In this case, a PWERM might be used to estimate the value of the shares under the strategic sale scenario, along with a probability assumption that the sale goes through. For the scenario in which the transaction does not happen, an OPM would be used to estimate the value of the shares assuming a more uncertain liquidity event at some point in the future.The primary advantage of the Hybrid Method is that it allows for consideration of discrete future liquidity scenarios while also capturing the option-like payoffs of the various share classes. However, this method typically requires a large number of assumptions and can be difficult to implement in practice.ConclusionThe methods for valuing private company equity-based compensation range from simplistic (like the CVM) to complex (like the Hybrid Method). In addition to the factors discussed above, the facts and circumstances of a particular company’s stage of development and capital structure can influence the complexity of the valuation method selected. In certain instances, a recent financing round or secondary sale of stock becomes a datapoint that needs to be reconciled to the current valuation analysis and may even prove to be indicative of the value for a particular security in the capital stack (see “Calibrating or Reconciling Valuation Models to Transactions in a Company’s Equity” on page 6). At Mercer Capital, we recommend a conversation early in the process between company management, the company’s auditors, and the valuation specialist to discuss these issues and select an appropriate methodology. Originally published in the Financial Reporting Update: Equity Compensation, June 2019.
Measuring Up: Sorting Through the Puzzle of Dealership Metrics and Performance Statistics
Measuring Up: Sorting Through the Puzzle of Dealership Metrics and Performance Statistics
This article explains dealership metrics and performance statistics–what they mean, how to evaluate them, and where a particular store stacks up. As always, performance measures are relative.
Net Interest Margin Trends and Expectations
Net Interest Margin Trends and Expectations
Since Bank Watch’s last review of net interest margin (“NIM”) trends in July 2016, the Federal Open Market Committee has raised the federal funds rate eight times after what was then the first rate hike (December 2015) since mid2006. With the past two years of rate hikes and current pause in Fed actions, it’s a good vantage point to look at the effect of interest rate movements on the NIM of small and large community banks (defined as banks with $100 million to $1 billion of assets and $1 billion to $10 billion of assets). As shown in Figure 1, NIMs crashed in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, primarily because asset yields fell much quicker than banks could reprice term deposits. NIMs subsequently rebounded as the asset refinancing wave subsided while banks were able to lower deposit rates. A several year period then occurred in which asset yields grinded lower at a time when deposit rates could not be reduced. This period was particularly tough for commercial banks with a high level of non-interest bearing deposits. Since rate hikes started, the NIM for both small and large community banks have increased about 20bps through year-end 2018 before experiencing some pressure in early 2019. The nine hikes by the Fed to a target funds rate of 2.25% to 2.50% amounts to a 225bps increase. At first pass, the expansion in the NIMs is less than might be expected; however, there are always a number of factors in bank balance sheets that will impact the NIM, including: Loan Floors. Many Libor- and prime-based commercial loans had floors that required 100-150bps of hikes before the floors were “out-of-the-money.”Competition. Intense competition for loans in an environment in which bonds yielded very little resulted in pressure in the margin over a base rate as bank and non-bank lenders accepted lower margins in order to make loans.Asset Mix. Community banks located in rural and semi-rural areas tend to have low loan-to-deposit ratios and, therefore, have not benefited as much as peers located in and around MSAs that are “loaned-up.” Nonetheless, net loans as a percentage of assets among community banks increased by an average of 15bps each quarter since year-end 2016 while bond portfolios declined.Loan Mix. Community banks tend to have somewhat more of their loan portfolios allocated to residential mortgages and CRE than regional banks. As a result, it will take much longer for these mostly fixed-rate assets to reprice than Libor-based C&I portfolios.Deposit COF. In recent quarters the marginal cost of funds (“COF”) has become expensive as depositors who came to accept being paid essentially nothing for their money began to demand more competitive rates once the Fed Funds rate approached 2%.Deposit Mix. In addition to depositors demanding higher rates, a mix shift from non-interest bearing and very low-yielding transaction accounts into higher paying money markets and time deposits has pushed the COF higher, too, in recent quarters.Fed to Cut Rates?Recent incremental pressure on NIMs notwithstanding, community banks’ balance sheets were poised to take advantage of rising rates the past several years. The outperformance of bank stocks beginning in November 2016 reflected several factors, including an economic and regulatory backdrop that would allow the Fed to raise rates further and faster, and thereby support NIM expansion.The underperformance of bank stocks since last fall reflects investor concern that this tailwind is ending in addition to more general concerns about what a possible economic slowdown implies for credit costs. Telltale signs include the inversion of the Treasury yield curve and yields on the two-year and five-year Treasuries that, as of the date of the drafting of this article, are below the low-end of the Fed Funds target range. Also, the spot and forward curves for 30-day Libor imply the Fed will cut the Funds target rate and other short-term policy rates one or two times by early 2020 (or stated differently, the December rate hike was a mistake). The Federal Funds rate, the predominant influence on short-term interest rates, has remained unchanged since year-end 2018 at a target range of 2.25%–2.50% due to concerns about lower inflation figures and what they may forewarn about future economic growth as reflected in falling U.S. Treasury yields. The FOMC reiterated its wait-and-see approach on May 1. However, the sand appears to be shifting beneath the Fed’s feet. The Wall Street Journal’s most recent Economic Forecasting Survey revealed an increasing belief that the Fed’s next move will be to cut rates. 51% of respondents said that a rate cut would be the next move, up from 44% in April. 25.5% replied that the next rate raise would occur in 2020 or later. Fed officials have maintained their stance that a rate move in either direction will not occur soon. The Importance of Deposits and Next StepsAs deposit costs initially lagged, but more recently moved with short-term interest rate hikes, the composition of a bank’s deposit base and funding structure has become increasingly important. As shown in Figure 4, the percentage of banks experiencing a rising cost of interest bearing deposits has steadily increased. Total funding costs have nearly doubled since year-end 2016 as depositors have reoriented funds toward accounts offering higher rates. Banks searching for funding either must engage in intense deposit competition or tap into higher-cost sources such as wholesale funding. Going forward community banks may face a modest reduction in NIMs because the yield curve is flat and the cost of incremental funding is expensive. Some community banks will choose to slow loan growth in order to protect margins; others will accept a lower margin. The predicament demonstrates yet again why deposit franchises are a key consideration for acquirers as banks with low cost deposit franchises and excess liquidity are particularly attractive in the current market. Originally published in Bank Watch, May 2019.
The Last Mile
The Last Mile

Most marathon runners will tell you that the last leg of the race is the hardest. In the same vein, the final leg of freight delivery is often the most complicated. This final leg – the delivery of a package from the warehouse or fulfillment center to the customer’s address – is known as the “last mile,” though the actual distance can vary.
The Importance of Fairness Opinions in Transactions
The Importance of Fairness Opinions in Transactions
It has been 34 years since the Delaware Supreme Court ruled in the landmark case Smith v. Van Gorkom, (Trans Union), (488 A. 2d Del. 1985) and thereby made the issuance of fairness opinions de rigueur in M&A and other significant corporate transactions. The backstory of Trans Union is the board approved an LBO that was engineered by the CEO without hiring a financial advisor to vet a transaction that was presented to them without any supporting materials.Why would the board approve a transaction without extensive review? Perhaps there were multiple reasons, but bad advice and price probably were driving factors.  An attorney told the board they could be sued if they did not approve a transaction that provided a hefty premium ($55 per share vs a trading range in the high $30s).Although the Delaware Supreme Court found that the board acted in good faith, they had been grossly negligent in approving the offer. The Court expanded the concept of the Business Judgment Rule to include the duty of care in addition to the duties to act in good faith and loyalty.  The Trans Union board did not make an informed decision even though the takeover price was attractive. The process by which a board goes about reaching a decision can be just as important as the decision itself.Directors are generally shielded from challenges to corporate actions the board approves under the Business Judgement Rule provided there is not a breach of one of the three duties; however, once any of the three duties is breached the burden of proof shifts from the plaintiffs to the directors.  In Trans Union the Court suggested had the board obtained a fairness opinion it would have been protected from liability for breach of the duty of care.The suggestion was consequential.  Fairness opinions are now issued in significant corporate transactions for virtually all public companies and many private companies and banks with minority shareholders that are considering a take-over, material acquisition, or other significant transaction.When to Get a Fairness OpinionAlthough not as widely practiced, there has been a growing trend for fairness opinions to be issued by independent financial advisors who are hired to solely evaluate the transaction as opposed to the banker who is paid a success fee in addition to receiving a fee for issuing a fairness opinion.While the following is not a complete list, consideration should be given to obtaining a fairness opinion if one or more of these situations are present:There is only one offer for the bank and competing bids have not been solicitedCompeting bids have been received that are different in price and structure (e.g., cash vs stock)The shares to be received from the acquiring bank are not publicly traded and, therefore, the value ascribed to the shares is open to interpretationInsiders negotiated the transaction or are proposing to acquire the bankShareholders face dilution from additional capital that will be provided by insidersVarying offers are made to different classes of shareholdersThere is concern that the shareholders fully understand that considerable efforts were expended to assure fairness to all partiesWhat’s Included (and What’s Not) in a Fairness Opinion A fairness opinion involves a review of a transaction from a financial point of view that considers value (as a range concept) and the process the board followed. The financial advisor must look at pricing, terms, and consideration received in the context of the market for similar banks. The advisor then opines that the consideration to be received (sell-side) or paid (buy-side) is fair from a financial point of view of shareholders (particularly minority shareholders) provided the analysis leads to such a conclusion. The fairness opinion is a short document, typically a letter.  The supporting work behind the fairness opinion letter is substantial, however, and is presented in a separate fairness memorandum or equivalent document. A well-developed fairness opinion will be based upon the following considerations that are expounded upon in an analysis that accompanies the opinion:A review of the proposed transaction, including terms and price and the process the board followed to reach an agreementThe subject company’s capital table/structureFinancial performance and factors impacting earningsManagement’s current year budget and multi-year forecastValuation analysis that considers multiple methods that provide the basis to develop a range of value to compare with the proposed transaction priceThe investment characteristics of the shares to be received (or issued), including the pro-forma impact on the buyer’s capital structure, regulatory capital ratios, earnings capacity, accretion/dilution to EPS, TBVPS, DPSAddress the source of funds for the buyer and any risk funding may not be available It is important to note what a fairness opinion does not prescribe, including:What the highest obtainable price may beThe advisability of the action the board is taking versus an alternativeWhere a company’s shares may trade in the futureHow shareholders should vote a proxyThe reasonableness of compensation that may be paid to executives as a result of the transaction Due diligence work is crucial to the development of the fairness opinion because there is no bright line test that consideration to be received or paid is fair or not.  Mercer Capital has nearly four decades of experience in assessing bank (and non-bank) transactions and the issuance of fairness opinions.  Please call if we can assist your board. Originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, April 2019
<em>Kress v. U.S.</em> Denies S Corporation Premium and Accepts Tax-Affecting
Kress v. U.S. Denies S Corporation Premium and Accepts Tax-Affecting
The issue of a premium for an S corporation at the enterprise level has been tried in a tax case, and the conclusion is none.In Kress v. United States (James F. Kress and Julie Ann Kress v. U.S., Case No. 16-C-795, U.S. District Court, E.D. Wisconsin, March 25, 2019), the Kresses filed suit in Federal District Court (Eastern District of Wisconsin) for a refund after paying taxes on gifts of minority positions in a family-owned company.  The original appraiser tax-affected the earnings of the S corporation in appraisals filed as of December 31, 2006, 2007, and 2008.  The court concluded that fair market value was as filed with the exception of a very modest decrease in the original appraiser’s discounts for lack of marketability (DLOMs).Background on GBPThe company was GBP (Green Bay Packaging Inc.), a family-owned S corporation with headquarters in Green Bay, Wisconsin.  The company experienced substantial growth after its founding in 1933 by George Kress.  A current description of the company, consistent with information in the Kress decision, follows.Green Bay Packaging Inc. is a privately owned, diversified paper and packaging manufacturer. Founded in 1933, this Green Bay WI based company has over 3,400 employees and 32 manufacturing locations, operating in 15 states that serve the corrugated container, folding carton, and coated label markets.Little actual financial data is provided in the decision, but GBP is a large, family-owned business.  Facts provided include:Although GBP has the size to be a public company, it has remained a family-owned business as envisioned by its founder.About 90% of the shares are held by members of the Kress family (a Kress descendant is the current CEO), with the remaining 10% owned by employees and directors.The company paid annual dividends (distributions) ranging from $15.6 million to $74.5 million per year between 1990 and 2009. While historical profitability information is not available, the distribution history suggests that the company has been profitable.Net sales increased during the period 2002 to 2008.Hoovers provides the following (current) information, along with a sales estimate of $1.3 billion:Green Bay Packaging is the other Green Bay packers’ enterprise. The diversified yet integrated paperboard packaging manufacturer operates through 30 locations. In addition to corrugated containers, the company makes pressure-sensitive label stock, folding cartons, recycled container board, white and kraft linerboards, and lumber products. Its Fiber Resources division in Arkansas manages more than 210,000 acres of company-owned timberland and produces lumber, woodchips, recycled paper, and wood fuel. Green Bay Packaging also offers fiber procurement, wastepaper brokerage, and paper-slitting services. (emphasis added)The court’s decision states that the company’s balance sheet is strong. The company apparently owns some 210 thousand acres of timberland, which would be a substantial asset. GBP also has certain considerable non-operating assets including:Hanging Valley Investments (assets ranging from $65 – $77 million in the 2006 to 2008 time frame)Group life insurance policies with cash surrender values ranging from $142 million to $158 million during this relevant period and $86 million to $111 million net of corresponding liabilitiesTwo private aircraft, which on average, were used about 50% for Kress family use and about 50% for business travel GBP was a substantial company at the time of the gifts in 2006, 2007, and 2008. We have no information regarding what portion of the company the gifts represented, or how many shares were outstanding, so we cannot extrapolate from the minority values to an implied equity value.The Gifts and the IRS ResponsePlaintiffs James F. Kress and Julie Ann Kress gifted minority shares of GBP to their children and grandchildren at year-end 2006, 2007, and 2008. They each filed gift tax returns for tax years 2007, 2008 and 2009 basing the fair market value of the gifted shares on appraisals prepared in the ordinary course of business for the company and its shareholders. Based on these appraisals, plaintiffs each paid $1.2 million in taxes on the gifted shares, for a combined total tax of $2.4 million. We will examine the appraised values below.The IRS challenged the gifting valuations in late 2010. Nearly four years later, in August 2014, the IRS sent Statutory Notices of Deficiency to the plaintiffs based on per share values about double those of the original appraisals (see below). Plaintiffs paid (in addition to taxes already paid) a total of $2.2 million in gift tax deficiencies and accrued interest in December 2014. It is nice to have liquidity.Plaintiffs then filed amended gift tax returns for the relevant years seeking a refund for the additional taxes and interest. With no response from the IRS, Plaintiffs initiated the lawsuit in Federal District Court to recover the gift tax and interest they were assessed. A trial on the matter was held on August 3-4, 2017.The AppraisersThe first appraiser was John Emory of Emory & Co. LLC (since 1999) and formerly of Robert W. Baird & Co. I first met John in 1987 at an American Society of Appraisers conference in St. Thomas. He is a very experienced appraiser, and was the originator of the first pre-IPO studies. Emory had prepared annual valuation reports for GBP since 1999, and his appraisals were used by the plaintiffs for their gifts in 2006, 2007, and 2008.The Emory appraisals had been prepared in the ordinary course of business for many years. They were relied upon both by shareholders like the plaintiffs as well as the company itself.The next “appraiser” was the Internal Revenue Service, where someone apparently provided the numbers that were used in establishing the statutory deficiency amounts. The court’s decision provides no name.The third appraiser was Francis X. Burns of Global Economics Group. He was retained by the IRS to provide its independent appraisal at trial. As will be seen, while his conclusions were a good deal higher than those of Emory (and Czaplinski below), they were substantially lower than the conclusions of the unknown IRS appraiser. The IRS went into court already giving up a substantial portion of their collected gift taxes and interest.The fourth appraiser was hired by the plaintiffs, apparently to shore up an IRS criticism of the Emory appraisals. Nancy Czaplinski from Duff & Phelps also provided an expert report and testimony at trial. Emory’s report had been criticized because he employed only the market approach and did not use an income approach method directly. Czaplinski used both methods. It is not clear from the decision, but it is likely that Czaplinski was not informed regarding the conclusions in the Emory reports prior to her providing her conclusions to counsel for plaintiffs.While the court did not agree with all aspects of the work of any of the appraisers, the appraisers were treated with respect in the opinion based on my review. That was refreshing.The Court’s ApproachThe court named all the appraisers, and began with an analysis of the Burns appraisals (for the IRS). In the end, after a thoughtful review, the court did not rely on the Burns appraisals in reaching its conclusion.After reviewing the essential elements of the Burns appraisals, the court provided a similar analysis of the Emory appraisals. The court was impressed with Emory’s appraisals, and appeared to be influenced by the fact that the appraisals were done in the ordinary course of business for GBP and its shareholders. The court surely noticed that the IRS must have accepted the appraisals in the past since Emory had been providing these appraisals for many years. Other Kress family members had undoubtedly engaged in gifting transactions in prior years.The court then reviewed the Czaplinski appraisal. While the court was light on criticisms of the Czaplinski appraisals, it preferred the methodologies and approaches in the Emory appraisals.Interestingly, the entire analysis in the decision was conducted on a per share basis, so there was virtually no information about the actual size or performance or market capitalization of GBP in the opinion. We deal with the cards that are dealt.Summary of the Court’s DiscussionAs I read the court’s decision, there were ten items that were important in all three appraisals, and an additional item that was important in the December 31, 2008 appraisal. Readers will remember the Great Recession of 2008. It was important to the court that the appraisers consider the impact of the recession on the outlook for 2009 and beyond in their appraisals for the December 31, 2008 date.In the interest of time and space, we will focus on the appraisals as of December 31, 2008 in the following discussion. The summaries of the other appraisals are provided without comment at the end of this article. The December 31, 2008 summary follows. We deal with the eleven items that were discussed or implied in the subsections below.There are six columns above. The first provides the issue summary statements. The next four columns show the court’s reporting regarding the eleven items found in the 2008 appraisal based on its review of the reports of the appraisers. Note that there is no detail whatsoever for the rationale underlying the IRS conclusion for the Statements of Deficiency. The final column provides the court’s conclusion. To the extent that items need to be discussed together, we will do so.Items 1 and 2: The Market Approach and the Income ApproachAll the appraisers employed the market approach in the appraisals as of December 31, 2008 (and at the other dates). They looked at the same basic pool of potential guideline companies but used different companies and a different number of companies in their respective appraisals.The court was concerned that the use of only two comparable companies in the Burns report was inadequate to capture the dynamics of valuation. In fact, Burns used the same two guideline companies for all three appraisals, and the court felt that this selective use did not capture the impact of the 2008 recession on valuation (Item 7). He weighed the market approach at 60% and the income approach at 40% in all three appraisals.Czaplinski used four comparable companies in her 2008 appraisal and weighted the market approach 14% (same in her other appraisals). Her income approach was weighted at 86%.Emory used six guideline companies in the 2008 appraisal. While he used the market approach only, the court was impressed that “he incorporated concepts of the income approach into his overall analysis.” This comment was apparently addressing the IRS criticism that the Emory appraisals did not employ the income approach.Items 3 and 4: The S-Corp Premium/TreatmentThe case gets interesting at this point, and many readers and commentators will talk about its implications.At the enterprise level, both Burns and Emory tax-affected GBP’s S corporation earnings as if it were a C corporation. This is notable for at least two reasons:Emory’s appraisals were prepared a decade or so ago. That was the treatment advocated by many appraisers at the time (and still), including me.  See Chapter 10 in Business Valuation: An Integrated Theory, Second Edition, (Peabody Publishing, 2007) and the first edition published in 2004. The economic effect of treatment in the Emory appraisals was that there was no differential in value for GBP because of its S corporation status.The Burns appraisals also tax-affected GBP’s earnings as if it were a C corporation. This is significant because the IRS’ position in recent years has been that pass-through entity earnings (like S corporations) should not be tax-affected because they do not pay corporate level of taxes. Never mind that they do distribute sufficient earnings to their holders so they can pay their pass-through taxes. There was, therefore, no differential in GBP’s value because of tax-affecting. The Czaplinski report avoided the S corp valuation differential issue by using pre-tax multiples (without tax-affecting, of course). Since the Czaplinski report used pre-tax multiples, there was no differential in value because of the company’s S corporation status. The Burns report, however, did apply an S corporation premium to its capitalized earnings value of GBP. The decision reports neither the model used in the Burns report nor the amount of the premium.  Let me speculate. The premium was likely based on the SEAM Model (see page 35 of linked material), published by Dan Van Vleet, who was also at Duff & Phelps at the time (like Czaplinski). I speculate this because it is the best known model of its kind. If my speculation is correct, based on tax rates at the time and my understanding of the SEAM Model, it was likely in the range of 15% – 18% of equity value (100%), or a pretty hefty premium in the valuation. Nevertheless, Burns testified to the use of a specific S corporation premium at trial. Again, if my speculation is correct, the facts that Czaplinski and Van Vleet were both from Duff & Phelps and that Czaplinki did not employ the SEAM Model likely provided for some colorful cross-examination for Czaplinki. If so, she seems to have survived well based on the court’s review. The court accepted the tax-affected treatment of earnings of both Burns and Emory, and noted that Czaplinski’s treatment had dealt with the issue satisfactorily. The court did not accept the S corporation premium in the Burns report. What do these conclusions regarding tax-affecting and no S corporation premium mean to appraisers and taxpayers?The court accepted tax-affecting of S corporation income on an as-if C corporation basis in appraising 100% of the equity of an S corporation. This is good news for those who have long believed that an S corporation, at the level of the enterprise, is worth no more than an otherwise identical C corporation. It should pour water on the IRS flame of arguing that there should be no tax-affecting “because pass-through entities do not pay corporate level taxes.”The court did not accept the specific S corporation premium advanced by Burns. This is a second recognition that there is no value differential between S and C corporations that are otherwise identical. After all, the election of S corporation status is a virtually costless event. The fact that the court considered testimony regarding an S corporation premium model and did not agree with its use is a very significant aspect of this case.Kressv. U.S. will be quoted by many attorneys and appraisers as standing for the appropriateness of tax-affecting of pass-through entities and for the elimination of a specific premium in value for S corporation status.Item 5: Non-Operating AssetsThe treatment of non-operating assets by the appraisers is less than clear from the decision. What we know is the following regarding the substantial non-operating assets in the appraisals:The Burns report treated the non-operating assets at “almost full value.”  This treatment was disregarded by the court.The Emory report did not provide for separate treatment of non-operating assets, noting that it considered them in the book value of the business.  Since book value was not provided or weighted in the Emory report (or any of the others), it would appear that the court was satisfied that the non-operating assets had little value, since minority shareholders could not gain access to their value until the company was sold. That could be a long time given the desire of the Kress family to maintain family control over the company.The Czaplinski report provided for some discounting of the non-operating assets in the marketable minority valuation, and then allowed for further discounting through the marketability discount. Details of her treatment were not provided in the opinion. Since the court sided primarily with the overall thrust of the Emory report, we see little guidance for future appraisals in the treatment of non-operating assets in this decision.Item 6: Management InterviewsThe court noted that Burns had not visited with management, but had attended a deposition of GBP’s CFO. The court was impressed that Emory had interviewed management in the course of developing his appraisals, and had done so at the time, asking them about the outlook for the future each year. It is not clear from the decision whether Czaplinski interviewed management.Item 7: Consideration of the 2008 Recession (in the December 31, 2008 Appraisal)The Burns report was criticized for employing a mechanical methodology that, over the three years in question, did not account for changes in the markets (and values) brought about by the Great Recession of 2008. Specifically, it did not consider the future impact in the year-end 2008 appraisal of the recession’s impact on expectations and value at that date.Both the Emory and Czaplinski reports were noted as having employed methods that considered this landmark event and its potential impact on GBP’s value.Item 8: Impact of Family Transfer Restrictions on ValueThe court’s opinion in Kress provided more than four pages of discussion on the question of whether the Family Transfer Restriction in GBP’s Bylaws should have been considered in the determination of the discount for lack of marketability. This is a Section 2703(a) issue. Ultimately, the court found that the plaintiffs had not met their burden of proof to show that the restrictions were not a device to diminish the value of transferred assets, failing to pass one of the three prongs of the established test on this issue.Neither the Burns report nor the Czaplinski report considered family restrictions in their determinations of marketability discounts. The Emory report considered family restrictions in a “small amount” in its overall marketability discount determination.In spite of the lengthy treatment, the court found that the issue was not a big one. In the final analysis, the court deducted three percentage points from the marketability discounts in the Emory reports as its conclusions for these discounts.Item 9: Marketable Minority Value per ShareWith this background, we can look at the various value indications before and after marketability discounts. First, we look at the actual or implied marketable minority values of the appraisers. For the December 31, 2008 appraisals, the Emory report concluded a marketable minority value of $30.00 per share. Czaplinski concluded that the marketable minority value was similar, at $31.33 per share. The Burns report’s marketable minority value was 50% higher than Emory’s conclusion, at $45.10 per share.The Court concluded that marketable minority value was $30.00 per share, as found in the Emory Report.  That was an affirmation of the work done by John Emory more than a decade ago at the time the gifts were made.Item 10: Marketability DiscountsThe Emory report concluded that the marketability discount should be 28% for the December 31, 2008 appraisal (where previously, it had been 30%). The discount in the Czaplinski report was 20%. The marketability discount in the Burns report (for the IRS) was 11.2%.There were general comments regarding the type of evidence that was relied upon by the appraisers (restricted stock studies and pre-IPO studies that were not named, consideration of the costs of an initial public offering, etc.). Apparently, none of the appraisers used quantitative methods in developing their marketability discounts. The court criticized the cost of going public analysis in the Burns report because of the low likelihood of GBP going public.Based on the issue regarding family transfer restrictions, the court adjusted the marketability discounts in each of Emory’s three appraisals by 3% – a small amount.  Emory concluded a 28% marketability discount for 2008. The court’s conclusion was 25%.Item 11: Conclusions of Fair Market Value per ShareAt this point, we can look at the entire picture from the figure above. We replicate a part of the chart to make observation a bit easier. It is now possible to see the range of values in Kress. The plaintiffs filed their original gift tax returns based on a fair market value of $21.60 per share for the appraisal rendered December 31, 2008 (Emory). The IRS argued, years later (2014), for a value of $50.85 per share – a huge differential. The plaintiffs paid the implied extra taxes and interest and filed in Federal District Court for a refund. The expert retained by the IRS, Francis Burns, was apparently not comfortable with the original figure advanced by the IRS of $50.85 per share. The Burns report concluded that the 2008 valuation should be $40.05 per share, or more than 21% lower. Plaintiffs went into court knowing that they would receive a substantial refund based on that difference. Plaintiffs retained Nancy Czaplinski of Duff & Phelps to provide a second opinion in support of the opinions of Emory. Her year-end 2008 conclusion of $25.06 per share, although higher than the Emory conclusion of $21.60 per share, was substantially lower than the Burns conclusion of $40.05 per share. The court went through the analysis as outlined, noting the treatment of the experts on the items above. In the final analysis, the court adopted the conclusions of John Emory with the sole exception that it lowered the marketability discount from 28% to 25% (and a corresponding 3% in the prior two appraisals). The court’s concluded fair market value was $22.50 per share, only 4.2% higher than Emory’s conclusion of $21.60 per share. Based on this review of Kress, it is clear that Emory's appraisals were considered as credible and timely rendered. Kress marks a virtually complete valuation victory for the taxpayer. It also marks a threshold in the exhausting controversy over tax-affecting tax pass-through entities and applying artificial S corporation premiums when appraising S corporations (or other pass-through entities). Kress will be an important reference for all gift and estate tax appraisals that are in the current pipeline where the IRS is arguing for no tax affecting of S corporation earnings and for a premium in the valuation of S corporations relative to otherwise identical C corporations. When all is said and done, a great deal more will be written about Kress than we have shared here, and it will be discussed at conferences of attorneys, accountants and business appraisers. Some will want to focus on the family attribution aspect of the case, but, as the court made clear, this is a small issue in the broad scheme of things. Summary of Other Appraisal DatesFor information, below is a summary of the appraisals as of December 31, 2006 and December 31, 2007.
Collaborative Divorce: An Alternative to Reduce Tension and Cost
Collaborative Divorce: An Alternative to Reduce Tension and Cost
In traditional divorces, each spouse engages a lawyer who fights hard to “win.” Their weapons can include bringing in their own financial professional to value financial assets. Naturally the neutrality of those valuations may be suspect in the other party’s eyes, even if the valuator follows all proper procedures. In collaborative divorce, each spouse still hires a lawyer, but the goal is to reach a settlement that satisfies each party. Neutral consultants, such as financial and mental health professionals, are also frequently involved. The model is “troubleshoot and problem-solve” rather than “fight and win.”How Collaborative Divorce WorksThe collaboration is carried out through a series of meetings in which the couples and their attorneys negotiate over issues such as property division, alimony, child support and custody. The meetings are quarterbacked by the mental health professional, who prioritizes the goals for each session, monitors the emotional climate, and keeps things on track. The attorneys each are responsible to look out for the interests of their clients, but rather than using the law to win, they are more focused on making sure their clients understand the legal issues involved and how a court might view them. The role of the financial professional, who is paid by both parties, is to provide an objective assessment of the financial issues involved. If one of the spouses has a business, the financial neutral provides an arm’s-length valuation and can also serve to educate the other spouse about the business, if needed. After several meetings, the financial neutral produces a marital balance sheet, laying out the couple’s financial landscape.Advantages of Collaborative DivorceWhile collaborative divorce is not for everyone, in the right settings it can have these advantages:A Quicker ResolutionDivorces litigated through the court system can often take a year or more to reach a conclusion. The collaborative process can move faster because there is no waiting for motions to be filed and hearings to be held.Lower ExpenseAttorneys likely will have fewer billable hours since there is less engagement with the courts. There is only one financial consultant rather than two. In addition, because litigated cases tend to take more time, there may be a need for revised valuations as economic conditions change while the divorce makes its way through the process.Less AcrimonyWhile there certainly can be tension between the two spouses during the collaborative process, the temperature tends to be lower when the working model is problem-solving rather than fighting. The addition of a mental health professional to the team also can serve to defuse tensions, and the neutrality of the financial professional can serve to reduce distrust.More ControlWhen divorce cases reach the courtroom, subjective judgments by the judge can come into play. While Tennessee law spells out guidelines for judges in divorces, they still have latitude.More PrivacyDivorce settlements litigated through the courts become public record. Settlements that result from the collaborative process do not. This can be of particular importance when one or both spouses are high-profile.ConclusionCollaborative divorce is not for everyone. Sometimes distrust between the parties has become so intense that litigation is the only way out. However, many divorcing spouses have found that a collaborative process can reduce tensions and cost and provide a result satisfactory to both parties. Attorneys can benefit from numerous services provided by financial professionals in litigated and collaborative divorce matters. At Mercer Capital, we have two professionals who are trained in the Collaborative Practice and provide assistance to attorneys in collaborative and litigated divorce matters. Please contact us if we can be of assistance to you and your clients.Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, First Quarter 2019.
What Is a Lifestyle Analysis and Why Is it Important?
What Is a Lifestyle Analysis and Why Is it Important?
A lifestyle analysis is an analysis of each party’s sources of income and expenses. It is used in the divorce process to demonstrate the standard of living during the marriage and to determine the living expenses and spending habits of each spouse. It is typically a more in-depth analysis than the financial affidavits required in the divorce process and is prepared by a forensic accountant. The details in the analysis serve as verification of net worth and income, and expense statements submitted by both spouses can help a judge determine the equitable distribution of marital assets as well as alimony needs.The lifestyle analysis pulls together all considerations and provides a visual of income and expenses over the remaining life expectancy. Through illustration of the aggregate sources of income(s) and expenses over time, one can discern what funds are actually required (and if these funds are available) to maintain standard of living, i.e., to fund expenses. The exercise then yields relative analyses (percentage comparisons and trend analyses), and ultimately, an illustration of net worth at a point in time, as well as net worth accumulation over time.Factors Considered for Spousal SupportIn Tennessee, the Decree for support of spouse is under § 36-5-121(i). Careful consideration must be given to the factors listed in the statute when determining historical lifestyle (standard of living) as well as reasonable need into the future. Twelve factors assist in determining whether the granting of an order for payment of support and maintenance to a party is appropriate, as well as determining the nature, amount, length of term, and manner of payment. Refer to § 36-5-121(i) for the full listing.Although each of the factors must be considered when relevant to the parties’ circumstances, the first factor, “the relative earning capacity, obligations, needs, and financial resources of each party, including income from pension, profit sharing or retirement plans and all other sources,” has presented the two most important components: the disadvantaged spouse’s need and the obligor spouse’s ability to pay.Hence arises the “pay & need analysis,” also known as the “lifestyle analysis.”Sources of Financial Information Used in the AnalysisThe following documentation provides financial information used in the analysis and is typically requested during the discovery process.Tax returnsBrokerage accountsRetirement, pension accountsBank, debit card, credit card statementsPersonal financial statementsLoan applicationsInsurance policies (cash surrender value)Mortgage statementsTrusts, willsDeeds to home, vehicles, motorboats, etc.Annuity, stock certificates, deposit boxBusiness valuationsAppraisals of tangible items (artwork, collectibles, etc), among othersThe Process: Building a Lifestyle AnalysisThere are many moving pieces in constructing the lifestyle analysis, and the components can be quite different from case to case. During the preliminary stages, the financial expert/ forensic accountant will obtain pertinent documents from the aforementioned documentation in order to create the marital balance sheet (and potential separate property) and assess historical and current earnings and expenses/spending habits. Additionally, the expert may also assist in building a budget based on historical expenses. The expert will review retirement plans and annual contributions, brokerage accounts, cash & savings accounts, their respective average rates of return as well as varying tax obligations. The risk tolerance of the individuals can even be considered in relation to future rates of return. For example, a person with ample disposable cash may be willing to invest in riskier ventures where the return may be higher, than a person who chooses to invest conservatively due to limited disposable cash.The investigative process may even lead the parties to establish the “true income” of a spouse who is suspecting of perpetrating fraud and determine any possible hidden assets or dissipation of marital assets.Ultimately, the lifestyle analysis illustrates the sources of income, tax obligations, and disposable cash before and after expected expenses. This tool is valuable because it leads to further analyses such as relative analyses of gross earnings comparisons and after-tax disposable cash comparisons, among others. The analysis allows comparison on relative terms not just dollar amounts.Another valuable result of the lifestyle analysis is the ability to assess the parties’ net worth at multiple points in time. The net worth accumulation analysis illustrates the differences of the division of net worth at the date of divorce, and the division of net worth at the date of death. Additionally, it illustrates the net worth accumulation between those two points in time. This process may highlight what appears to be reasonable at a point in time, may or may not be reasonable when extracted over time. When used as trial demonstratives, the illustration can assist the trier of facts in determining the disadvantaged spouse’s need and the obligor spouse’s ability to pay.For a fact pattern and step-by-step illustration, refer to my Lifestyle / Pay & Need Analysis presentation from the 2018 AICPA Forensic & Business Valuation Conference.ConclusionIn financial situations that may be scrutinized by regulators, courts, tax collectors, and a myriad of other lurking adversaries, the financial, economic, and accounting experience and skills of a financial expert are invaluable. The details in the lifestyle analysis can help determine the equitable distribution of marital assets as well as alimony needs.Because no two cases are alike, all components of the analysis must be carefully assessed. Complexities that may need further consideration include, but are not limited to:Earnings capacity: need for a vocational expert?Differences in retirement plans (such as tax structure & penalties): qualified vs non-qualified, Roth vs Traditional, pensions, etc.Investment risk profiles: risky vs risk averse (hence, annual returns may differ)Alimony requested: duration, dollar amount, typeBusiness ownership: valuations, personal vs. enterprise goodwill, active vs. passive appreciation (i.e., marital vs. separate)Deferred compensation:Stock options and restricted stock (both vested and unvested) • Election 83(b): timing of tax on restricted stockShort-term and long-term incentive plans (bonuses), among others A competent financial expert will be able to define and quantify the financial aspects of a case and effectively communicate the conclusion. For more information or to discuss your matter, please don’t hesitate to contact us. Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, First Quarter 2019.
Takeaways from AOBA 2019: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”
Takeaways from AOBA 2019: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”
I ventured into the Arizona desert again this year to Bank Director’s Acquire or Be Acquired Conference (“AOBA”) in Phoenix in late January. This year I was struck by the dichotomous outlook for the banking sector that reminded me of Dicken’s famous line: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”The Best of TimesThe weather was lovely. Phoenix/Scottsdale is the place to be in late January, and this year did not disappoint with sunny weather and a high of around 70 each day. At the same time, much of the country was feeling the effects of a severe polar vortex that caused temperatures to plunge well below zero in the Upper Midwest and Great Plains. Many of the attendees from that area were forced to stay a day or two longer due to airline cancellations.The operating environment for banks reflected a similar analogous dichotomy. Take the market for example. Most banks produced very good earnings in 2018, and many produced record earnings due to a good economy, the reduction in corporate tax rates, and margin relief as the Fed raised short-term interest rates four times further distancing itself from the zero interest rate policy (“ZIRP”) implemented in late 2008.The Worst of TimesNonetheless, bank stocks, along with most industry sectors, were crushed in the fourth quarter. The SNL Small Cap US and Large Cap US Bank Indices declined 16% and 17% respectively. Several AOBA sessions opined that valuations based on price-to-forward earnings multiples were at “financial crisis” levels as investors debated how much the economy could slow in 2019 and 2020 and thereby produce much lower earnings than Wall Street’s consensus estimates.Within the industry the best of times vs. worst of times (or not as good of times) theme extended to size. Unlike past eras when small (to a point) was viewed as an advantage relative to large banks, the consensus has flipped. Large banks today are seen as having a net advantage in creating operating leverage, technology spending, better mobile products for the all-important millennials, and greater success in driving deposit growth.Additionally, one presenter noted that larger publicly traded banks that are acquisitive have been able to acquire smaller targets at lower price/tangible book multiples than the multiple at which the shares issued for the target trade in the public market and thereby incur no or minimal dilution to tangible BVPS.TechnologyThe most thought provoking sessions dealt with the intensifying impact of technology. Technology is not a new subject matter for AOBA, but the increasingly larger crowds that attended technology-focused sessions demonstrated this issue is on the minds of many bankers and directors. While technology is a tool to be used to deliver banking services, I think the unasked question most were thinking was: “What are implications of technology on the value of my bank?”Several sessions noted big banks that once hemorrhaged market share are proving to be adept at deposit gathering in larger metro markets while community banks still perform relatively well in second-tier and small markets. Technology is helping drive this trend, especially among millennials who do not care much about brick-and-mortar but demand top-notch digital access. The efficiency and technology gap between large and small banks is widening according to the data, while both small and large banks are battling new FinTech entrants as well as each other.Not all technology-related discussions were negative, however. Digital payment network Zelle (owned indirectly by Bank of America, BB&T, Capital One, JPMorgan Chase, PNC, US Bank, and Wells Fargo) has grown rapidly since it launched in 2017. Payment volume in dollar terms now exceeds millennial-favorite Venmo, which is owned by PayPal. Also, JPMorgan Chase rolled-out a new online brokerage offering that offers free trades for clients in an effort to add new brokerage and banking clients while also protecting its existing customer franchise.Steps to Create ValueIn addition to the best of times/worst of times theme, I picked up several ideas about what actions banks large and small can take to create value.Create a Digital/FinTech Roadmap for Your BankThere was a standing room only crowd for the day one FinXTech session: “The Next Wave of Innovation.” This stood in stark contrast to the first AOBA conference I attended which was during the financial crisis. Technology was hardly mentioned then and most sessions focused on failed bank acquisitions. Clearly, this year’s crowd proved that technology is top of mind for many bankers even if the roadmap is hazy. A key takeaway is that a digital technology roadmap must be weaved into the strategic plan so that an institution will be positioned to take advantage of the opportunity that technology creates to enhance customer service and lower costs. Further, emerging trends suggest that technology may help in assessing credit risk beyond credit scores. To assist banks in creating a FinTech roadmap, Bank Director recently unveiled a new project called FinXTech Connect that provides a tool bankers can use to consider and analyze potential FinTech partners.Become a “Triple Threat” BankDuring our (Mercer Capital) session, Andy Gibbs and I argued for becoming a “triple threat” bank, noting that banks with higher fee income, superior efficiency ratios, and greater technology spending were being rewarded in the public market with better valuations all else equal (see table below). While we do not advocate for heavy tech spending as a means to an ill-defined objective, the evidence points to a superior valuation when technology is used to drive higher levels of fee income and greater operating leverage. For more information, view our slide deck.Plan for the Good and Bad Times, Especially for the Bad TimesWhile there was a lot of discussion about an eventual slowdown in the economy and an inflection in the credit cycle, several sessions highlighted that a downturn will represent the best opportunity for those who are well prepared to grow. The key takeaway is to have a plan for both the good and the bad economic times to seize opportunity. Technology can play a role in a downturn by helping add customers at very low incremental costs.Best Practices around Traditional M&AOn the M&A front, two M&A nuggets from attorneys stood out as well as a note about MOEs (mergers of equals):Sullivan & Cromwell’s Rodgin Cohen suggested that buyers should determine what the counterparty wants and structure the transaction to achieve the counterparty’s objectives. Also, buyers need to “ride the circuit” to meet with potential acquisition candidates well before a decision to sell is made, while sellers need to know what they want to achieve before launching a sales process.Howard & Howard’s Michael Bell, a leading attorney to credit unions, had an interesting session where he noted commercial bankers should actively court credit unions as potential acquirers in a marketing process because credit unions’ lower operating cost structures and tax-exempt status can produce a better cash price for the seller.A few sessions discussed the potential for MOEs to create value for both banks’ shareholders through creating scale and by combining banks with different areas of strength. In addition, MOEs create an opportunity to upgrade technology while addressing costly legacy systems, including extensive branch networks. All three themes were addressed in two large MOEs announced in 2019 by TCF/Chemical and BB&T/SunTrust.ConclusionWe will likely be back at AOBA next year and hope to see you there. In the meantime, if you have questions or wish to discuss a valuation or transaction need in confidence, don’t hesitate to contact us.
Tax Law Changes Affecting Family Law: 2019 Changes and Recap of 2018 Changes
Tax Law Changes Affecting Family Law: 2019 Changes and Recap of 2018 Changes
2019 ChangesBy now, many are familiar with the changes from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), however, specific changes related to family law and alimony deductibility went into effect in 2019.Alimony Payments. Effective January 1, 2019, alimony payments are no longer deductible to the payer spouse, and are no longer taxed to the recipient spouse. This applies to divorces finalized, by settlement agreement or court order, on or after January 1, 2019. Under the prior law, alimony was deductible to the payer, reducing income and basis for taxes, and taxed to the recipient, increasing income and basis for taxes. The change is permanent and will not sunset, like some of the TCJA amendments.Income from Trusts. Also, under the prior law, income of a (alimony) trust paid to the ex-spouse was taxable to the recipient and not to the grantor. The TCJA eliminated that rule.Existing Agreements and Modification Requests. Existing alimony or marital dissolution agreements, as well as any modification requests, are grandfathered to pre-January 1, 2019 rules as per existing agreements, unless both parties mutually consent and specifically opt to implement new rules. Alimony modification requests made January 1, 2019 and after will require recognition of the changes of the tax law.Recap of 2018 ChangesWe discussed many of these in a prior newsletter. The changes are as follows.Personal Exemptions. Under the new tax law, personal exemptions are eliminated. Previously, personal exemptions were often used during divorce settlement negotiations with the parties splitting these deductions and sometimes one spouse compensating the other spouse to “purchase” the use of this exemption.529 Plans. The new tax law expands the use of 529 plans to include secondary education and other uses, whereas it was previously only available for college and higher education. Often, 529 plan accounts exist in a marital estate and become a topic discussed during settlement negotiations for how/when they will be used.Business Valuation. TCJA reduced corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%. The valuation of C corporations could be higher simply due to the mechanics of income approaches to value a business, all other factors held equal.Child Tax Credit. The TCJA increased the credit to $2,000 and the income phase-out increased to $200,000 ($400,000 for joint filers).Other Deductions. TCJA repealed legal and accounting fees related to taxable alimony, divorce-related tax planning, and related analysis. The TCJA suspends the miscellaneous deductions through Dec. 31, 2025. This also applies to professional fees related to splitting of Individual Retirement Accounts or ERISA plans (e.g., QDRO fees). For more information, see this helpful reference. Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, First Quarter 2019.
The Rise of FreightTech
The Rise of FreightTech
To the lay person, transportation may seem like the farthest end of the spectrum from the technology industry – telephone orders and paper shipment tracking. But those in the know understand just how tech-enabled the industry has become. Advancements in machine learning, artificial intelligence, and predictive technology could have the power to disrupt the way goods are transported, stored, and tracked. And investors are clearly willing to take bets on that.
Labor Shortage in Trucking Sector
Labor Shortage in Trucking Sector
The trucking industry is wedged between a rock and a hard place when it comes to driver recruitment. Trucking companies are simultaneously exploring self-driving technology, while still convincing new entrants to the labor market that commercial driving is a career choice that will pay off. Punctuating the less-than-glamorous work and lifestyle conditions of the occupation, those entering the labor force realize that the career path could be upended in the near-term by the economic cycle and disrupted in the long term by the impending evolution of autonomous transportation. With several companies (like Tesla) beginning deployment of self-driving trucks, and numerous others deep in development of the technology, young workers may fear choosing a vocation that trucking companies are actively planning to automate.
How to Value an InsurTech Company
How to Value an InsurTech Company
FinTech companies are the emerging and hyped sector of the financial services industry. Looking at FinTech’s recent activity, people can see that many of these companies begin as start-ups and a few exciting years later, are able to raise millions of dollars in hopes of becoming the next “unicorn” – an industry term describing a tech company valued at a billion dollars or more. While this business trajectory may seem simple and attractive, FinTech companies usually have a highly complex structure made up of many investors of different origins, including venture, corporate, and/or private equity, all with different preferences and capital structures.Valuing a FinTech company can be very complicated and difficult, but carries important significance for employees, investors, and stakeholders for the company. While all FinTech companies have large differences, including what niche (payments, solutions, technologies, etc.) they operate in or what stage of development the company is in, understanding the value of a FinTech company is critically important. More specifically, within the FinTech industry, an exciting niche termed InsurTech is emerging and threatening to change the traditional state of the insurance industry.InsurTech NicheInsurTech is a fast growing niche that operates in a massive global insurance industry with premium revenues of about $5 trillion annually. InsurTech is the term applied to many companies that are using technology to disrupt the traditional insurance industry landscape. InsurTech has high growth prospects and the potential for InsurTech to innovate and disrupt remains large. Funding for InsurTech companies in recent years has spiked, especially for early-stage companies. Incumbents in the insurance industry have been slow to adopt disruptive, high-growth InsurTech, partly because insurance is so massive and has been around for such a long time. Additionally, many traditional insurance companies can benefit from InsurTech solutions that serve to enhance customer satisfaction and improve the efficiency of operations by leveraging technology and enhancing the delivery of certain insurance offerings and solutions through digital channels.Technology and innovation have disrupted many other long-established industries, such as the impact of medical technology in the healthcare industry. Insurance players, who maintain legacy systems believe that established customer connections will reduce the threat of InsurTech. However, this may not be the best strategy because insurance is often purchased begrudgingly. The historically strained relationship between customers and carriers is a rather vulnerable point along the insurance value chain. InsurTech companies can offer innovative technology that creates more touchpoints for customers and reduces many customer pain points.Market ConsiderationsUnderstanding how well a given InsurTech company is doing within this FinTech niche is one of the most important factors in determining its value. Market dynamics such as market size, potential market available, and growth prospects are important to understand. A valuation will consider absolute market value, existing competitors, and existing incumbents. The regulatory environment is another important consideration when valuing an InsurTech company. Financial services, such as banks and insurance companies, are heavily regulated, so understanding the rules and regulations is necessary for developing an accurate valuation.Like other FinTech niches, certain solutions within InsurTech are relatively new and have the potential to disrupt the entire insurance industry. Since many industry incumbents have been slow to adopt this new technology, the range of this innovation has yet to be fully felt and rules/regulations have yet to change. While regulatory stability may seem favorable now, concrete rules and regulations are complex and can be hard to predict as regulators react to rising InsurTech involvement. Understanding these complexities is important to valuing InsurTech companies, as these regulations could help or hinder an InsurTech’s growth potential.Company ConsiderationsWhen valuing a startup, quantitative information (financial and operating history) is limited; therefore, qualitative information can be extremely important in determining a company’s value. The quality and experience of the management team can be important. Knowledge of the insurance industry including understanding customer preferences, technology integration, the competitive and regulatory environments can enhance an InsurTech’s company value.An InsurTech company’s ownership of intellectual property and other intangible assets, like strategic partnerships, all else equal, should be considered and could increase a company’s value, assuming they are in place and well documented. When in place and demonstrated, intangibles are an important qualitative consideration.The stage of development of a FinTech company can also impact its value. Companies typically set milestones and track their own progress, and meeting these milestones might affect their valuation. Milestones usually include initial round financing, proof of concept, regulatory approval, obtaining a significant partner, and more.Milestones are important to set and track as the more milestones a startup meets, the less uncertainty exists and the more value is created. For example, an InsurTech company with established technology, increased customer touchpoints, and the potential to increase revenues will be more valuable to a potential acquirer than a newer startup. In addition, meeting later stage milestones often provide greater value than meeting early stage milestones. When the valuation considers future funding rounds and the potential dilution from additional capital raises, a staged financing model is often prepared and the valuation will vary at different stages as shown below.Valuation ApproachesAs InsurTech companies enhance business operations and reduce costs, valuations for these companies will become more important. There are three common approaches to determining business value: asset approach, income approach, and market approach. Each valuation approach is typically considered and then weighted accordingly to provide an indicated value or a range of value for the company, and ultimately, the specific interest or share class of the company.The Asset ApproachThe asset approach determines the value of a business by examining the cost that would be incurred by the relevant party to reassemble the company’s assets and liabilities. This approach is generally inappropriate for technology startups as they are generally not capital intensive businesses until the company has completed funding rounds. However, it can be instructive to consider the potential costs and time that the company has undertaken in order to develop proprietary technology and other intangibles.The Market ApproachThe market approach determines the value of a company by utilizing valuation metrics from transactions in comparable companies or historical transactions in the company. Consideration of valuation metrics can provide meaningful indications for startups that have completed multiple funding rounds, but can be complicated by different preferences and rights with different share classes.Regardless of complications, share prices can provide helpful valuation anchors to test the valuation range. Market data of publicly traded companies and acquisitions can be helpful in determining key valuation inputs for InsurTech companies. For early-stage companies, market metrics can provide valuable insight into potential valuations and financial performance once the InsurTech company matures. For already mature enterprises, recent financial performance can be compiled to serve as a valuable benchmarking tool.Investors can discern how the market might value an InsurTech company based on pricing information from comparable InsurTech companies or recent acquisitions of comparable InsurTech companies.The Income ApproachThe income approach can also provide a meaningful indication of value for a FinTech company. This relies on considerations for the business’ expected cash flows, risk, and growth prospects.The most common income approach method is the discount cash flow (DCF) method, which determines value based upon the present value of the expected cash flows for the enterprise. The DCF method projects the expected profitability of a company over a discrete period and prices the profitability using an expected rate of return, or a discount rate. The combination of present values of forecasted cash flows provides the indication of value for a specific set of assumptions.For startup InsurTech companies, cash flow forecasts are often characterized by a period of operating losses, capital needs, and expected payoffs as profitability improves or some exit event, like an acquisition, occurs. Additionally, investors and analysts often consider multiple scenarios for early-stage companies both in terms of cash flows and exit outcomes (IPO, sale to a strategic or financial buyer, etc.), which can lead to the use of a probability weighted expected return model (PWERM) for valuation.Putting it TogetherGiven their complexity, multiple valuation approaches and methods are often considered to provide lenses through which to assess value of InsurTech and FinTech companies and generate tests of reasonableness against which different indications of value can be evaluated.It is important to note that these different methods are not expected to align perfectly. Value indicators from the market approach can be rather volatile and investors often think longer-term. More enduring indicators from value can often come from income approaches, such as DCF models.Valuation of an InsurTech company can be vital to measure realistic growth, to plan progression, and to secure employee and investor interest. Given the complexities in valuing private FinTech and InsurTech companies and the ability for the market/regulatory environment to shift quickly, it is important to have a valuation expert who can adequately assess the value of the company and understand the prevalent market trends.
Credit Quality at a Crossroads
Credit Quality at a Crossroads
Last week, the Mercer Capital Bank Group headed south for a scenic trip through the fields of the Mississippi Delta, including the town of Clarksdale located about 90 miles from Memphis. Clarksdale’s musical heritage runs deep with such performers as Sam Cooke, John Lee Hooker, Son House, and Ike Turner born there, while Tennessee Williams spent much of his childhood there. Explaining the Delta’s prolific artistic output, Eudora Welty, a Mississippi writer, noted the landscape stretching to the horizon and the juxtaposition of societal elements – all these forces churning like the Mississippi river nearby.Despite its gritty roots, Clarksdale now is experiencing its own hipster renaissance. It may not be Brooklyn, but the Bank Group noticed signs for last weekend’s Clarksdale Film Festival. Visitors can stay at a refurbished cotton gin, enjoying their Sweet Magnolia Gelato made from locally sourced ingredients. Presumably, craft cocktails are available as well, this being the Delta.Beyond these recent additions to the tourist landscape, though, one attraction put Clarksdale on the map – the Crossroads. At the intersection of Highways 49 and 61, the bluesman Robert Johnson (who lived from 1911 to 1938), as the story goes, met the Devil at midnight who tuned his guitar and played a few songs. In exchange for his soul, Johnson realized his dream of blues mastery.The point of this article is not that Lucifer lurked behind the revaluation of asset prices in the fourth quarter of 2018. Instead, the market gyrations laid bare the dichotomy between bank expectations regarding asset quality and the market’s view of mounting credit risk that was overlaid by a need to meet margin calls among some investors. Indeed, credit quality faces its own crossroads.Highway 49Along Hwy. 49 lies the town of Tutwiler, about 15 miles from Clarksdale. There, in 1903, the bandleader W.C. Handy heard a man playing slide guitar with a knife, singing “Goin’ where the Southern cross’ the Dog.” Handy adapted the song, which references the juncture of two railroads, thereby making it one of the first blues recordings.From Call Report data, which includes 3,644 banks with total assets between $100 million and $5 billion, signs of credit quality deterioration remain virtually undetectable.Loan growth continued apace in 2018, maintaining the community banking industry’s recent 10% annual growth rate (Figure 1, which shows the trailing twelve month change in loans). Notably, commercial real estate loan growth decelerated in 2018. Although this presumably pleases the regulatory agencies, competition from non-banks (e.g., insurance companies) and budding risks surrounding certain sectors (e.g., retail) likely explain the slowdown.In absolute terms, nonperforming loans (nonaccrual loans plus loans more than 90 days past-due) declined in each year between 2014 and 2017 (Figure 2). As of September 30, 2018, however, NPLs increased by 4% over December 31, 2017, led by farmland NPLs (up 37%, or $258 million), agricultural production NPLs (up 32%, or $90 million), and commercial and industrial NPLs (up 8%, or $149 million). Given loan growth, though, the ratio of NPLs to loans continued to decline, falling slightly from 0.81% to 0.79% between December 31, 2017 and September 30, 2018.Annualized charge-offs for the year-to-date period ended September 30, 2018 also compare favorably to the comparable prior year period, foreshadowing a possible post-recession low in the net charge-off ratio for fiscal 2018 (Figure 3). As they are wont to do, regulatory agencies noted some concerns regarding asset quality. However, consistent with our research into the community banking industry’s asset quality trends, the OCC also observed that “credit quality remains strong when measured by traditional performance metrics.”1 Despite its view of building credit risk, the OCC rated 95% of banks’ underwriting practices as satisfactory or strong in 2018, virtually unchanged from the 2017 level.2 Economic growth, corporate profits, and employment trends also support a sanguine view of credit quality. While also observing weaker underwriting – for example, covenant concessions – rating agencies predict better credit performance among leveraged loans and commercial mortgage backed securities in 2019. For 2019, Fitch Ratings projects a 1.5% leveraged loan default rate, down from 1.75% in 2018. Further, commercial mortgage-backed security delinquencies, which declined by 103 basis points to 2.19% between year-end 2017 and 2018, are expected to range between 1.75% and 2.00% in 2019. The Amazonification of the retail sector, which led to retail bankruptcies and defaults on loans secured by regional malls, contributed to higher delinquency and default rates in 2018 but may subside in 2019. The view from Hwy. 49, before reaching the Crossroads, looks favorable from the banking industry’s standpoint. Highway 61In the words of the writer David Cohn, the Mississippi Delta begins in the lobby of the Peabody Hotel (in Memphis) and ends on Catfish Row in Vicksburg, Mississippi.3 While his observation alludes to the economic as well as the geographic extremes of the Delta region, Highway 61 is the Delta’s spine connecting Cohn’s poles.One of the more concerning statistics is the level of corporate debt. Though household debt trended down following the Great Recession (see Figure 4), nonfinancial business debt has reached near record levels as a percentage of GDP.4 According to Morgan Stanley, BBB-rated corporate debt surged by 227% since 2009 to $2.5 trillion. This leaves approximately one-half of the investment grade corporate bond universe on the cusp of a high-yield rating. Moody’s migration data suggests that BBB-rated bonds have an 18% chance of being downgraded to non-investment grade within five years, which may overwhelm the high-yield bond market.5 Regulatory agencies also observed looser underwriting. For new leveraged loans, the Federal Reserve noted that the share of highly leveraged large corporate loans – defined as more than 6x EBITDA – exceeds previous peak levels in 2007 and 2014, while issuers also are calculating EBITDA more liberally by making aggressive adjustments to reported EBITDA.6 From the OCC’s perspective, competitive pressures from banks and non-banks, along with plentiful investor liquidity, have led to weaker underwriting particularly among C&I and leveraged loans. According to the OCC, community banks are not immune. An example of weaker underwriting cited by the OCC is “general commercial loans, predominately in community banks” for which it compiles a list of shortcomings: “price concessions, inadequate credit analysis or loan-level stress testing, relaxed loan controls, noncompliance with internal credit policies, and weak risk assessments.”7 Despite unemployment rates below 4% and some evidence of rising wages, consumer loan delinquency rates have risen in 2018 (Figure 5). Some lenders, such as Discover, already have begun reducing exposure to heated sectors like unsecured personal loans. Fears of a downturn crystallized in the fourth quarter of 2018 with the Federal Reserve’s December rate increase, trade friction with China, and signs of economic slowdowns in countries such as Germany. Option-adjusted spreads on corporate debt, after remaining quiescent through 2017 and most of 2018, widened suddenly, approaching levels last observed in 2016 when oil prices collapsed (Figure 6). According to Guggenheim, the fourth quarter spread widening implies a 3.2% high yield corporate debt default rate, up from 1.8% for 2018.8 The perspective gleaned from Hwy. 61 is not necessarily alarming, but it does suggest that, directionally, risk is rising. The CrossroadsCredit lies at a crossroads, consistent with a late cycle economic environment. Reported credit metrics are not improving significantly, nor are they worsening; conditions suggest continued low charge-offs and loan loss provisions in the nearterm. However, the market sniffs rising risks in various corners of the economy, most notably in corporate debt. Howlin’ Wolf sang, “Well I’m gonna get up in the morning // Hit the Highway 49.” Where are banks headed? Macroeconomic conditions ultimately will be determinative, but banks should avoid complacency in this environment marked by conflicting signals and aggressive competition. The poorest loans, in retrospect, often are originated in times such as these.End Notes1 OCC Semiannual Risk Perspective, Fall 2018, p. 1.2 OCC Semiannual Risk Perspective, Fall 2018, p. 22.3 Cohn, David, Where I Was Born and Raised, 1948.4 Federal Reserve, Financial Stability Report, November 2018, p. 18.5 Guggenheim Investments, Fixed Income Outlook, Fourth Quarter 2018, pp. 1 and 8.6 Federal Reserve, Financial Stability Report, November 2018, p. 20.7 OCC Semiannual Risk Perspective, Fall 2018, pp. 11 and 24.8 Guggenheim Investments, High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook, January 2019.
2019 Outlook: Gasping for Air Replaces 2018’s Rainbow Chasing
2019 Outlook: Gasping for Air Replaces 2018’s Rainbow Chasing
What a difference a year makes. A year ago corporate tax reform had been enacted that lowered the top marginal tax rate to 21% from 35%. Banks were viewed as one of the primary beneficiaries through a reduction in tax rates and a pick-up in economic growth. Now investors are questioning whether bank stocks and other credit investments are canaries in the U.S. economic coalmine.As 2018 draws to a close, bank fundamentals are very good; however, bank stock prices have tanked. SNL Financial’s small-, mid-, and large-cap bank indices have fallen by more than 20% since August 31, which meets the threshold definition of a bear market (i.e., down 20% vs. 10% for a correction). Markets, of course, lead fundamentals, and corporate credit markets lead equity markets. Among industry groups, bank stocks are “early cyclicals”, meaning they turn down before the broader economy does and tend to turn up before other sectors when recessions bottom. Large cap banks peaked in February while the balance of the industry peaked in the third quarter after having a fabulous run that dates to the national elections on November 8, 2016. The downturn in bank stock prices corresponds with weakening home sales, widening credit spreads in the leverage loan and high yield bond markets, a ~40% reduction in oil prices, and a nearly inverted Treasury yield curve. To state the obvious: markets—but not fundamentals so far—are signaling 2019 (and maybe 2020) will be a more challenging year than was assumed a few months ago in which the economy slows and credit costs rise. The key question for 2019 then is: how much and is a slowdown fully priced into stocks? Our next issue of Bank Watch will entail a deep dive into credit, but for this issue, we observe that a global unwind of leverage is underway as the Fed extracts liquidity from the system. Bond buying (QE) and ultra-low rates helped drive asset prices higher. The reverse is proving true, too. Bank FundamentalsBank fundamentals are in good-to-great shape. During the third quarter all FDI-Cinsured institutions reported aggregate net income of $62 billion, up 29.3% from 3Q17. Excluding the impact of lower taxes, 3Q18 pro forma net income would have been about $55 billion, up 13.9% from 3Q17. The data is more nuanced once the industry is segregated by asset size, however.As shown in Figure 3, ROA and ROE have nearly rebounded to the last pre-crisis year of 2006. Importantly, capital has increased significantly and, thereby, provides an additional buffer whenever the next downturn develops. As it relates to 2019, bank fundamentals are not expected to change much other than credit costs are expected to increase from a very low level in which current loss rates in all loan categories are below long-term averages. Wall Street consensus EPS estimates project mid-single digit EPS growth for the largest banks, primarily as a result of share repurchases and a slightly higher full year NIM, while regional and community bank consensus estimates reflect upper single digit EPS growth from the same factors and somewhat better loan growth. However, credit and equity markets imply the consensus is too high given the sharp widening in credit spreads and drop in bank stock prices the past several months. Although markets lead fundamentals, market signals about magnitude are less clear. Given continuing growth in the U.S. economy that on balance will be helped by lower oil prices, it seems reasonable that an increase in credit costs the market is forecasting will be modest, and as a result, bank profitability will not be meaningfully crimped in 2019. The Fed: 2019 Rate Hikes Seem UnlikelyWhenever the Fed embarks on an extended rate hiking campaign, the saying goes the Fed hikes until something breaks. The market is signaling that the December rate hike—the ninth in the current cycle—that pushed the Fed Funds target from 2.25% to 2.50% when the yield on the 10-year UST bond was ~2.8% may be one of those moments. What’s unusual about the current tightening cycle is it represents an attempt by the Fed (but not the BOJ, ECB or SNB) to extract itself from radical monetary policies in which the Fed is raising short-term rates and shrinking its balance sheet at the same time. Given the flat yield curve, it is hard to see how the Fed will hike the Fed Funds another couple of times as planned for 2019, unless the Fed wants to invert the yield curve or unless intermediate- and long-term rates reverse and trend higher. Presumably the $50 billion a month pace in the reduction of its US Treasury and Agency MBS portfolio will continue. Alternatively, perhaps the Fed will bow to the market and not raise rates in 2019 and slow or even halt the reduction in its balance sheet to stabilize markets. As it relates to bank fundamentals, the impact on net interest margins will depend upon individual bank balance sheet compositions. Broadly, however, a scenario of no rate hikes implies less pressure to raise deposit rates, and rising wholesale borrowing rates should stabilize. The result, therefore, should be a little bit better NIMs than a slight reduction if the Fed continues to hike given that deposit rate betas for many institutions are well over 50% now. More important for banks if the Fed pauses vs continues to hike would be the impact on asset values (higher all else equal) and, therefore, credit costs. Bank Valuations: Support but Never a Stand-Alone CatalystA synopsis of bank valuations is presented in Figure 4 in which current valuations for the market cap indices are compared to the approximate market top around August 31, November 8, 2016 when the national election occurred, and multi-year medians based upon daily observations. An important point is that valuation is not a catalyst to move a stock; rather, valuation provides a margin of safety (or lack thereof) and thereby can provide additional return over time as a catalyst such as upward (or downward) earnings revisions can cause a multiple to expand or contract.Bank stocks—particularly mid-cap and large-cap banks—enter 2019 relatively inexpensive to history. The stocks are cheap relative to 2019 consensus earnings with large cap banks trading around 8x and small cap banks at 10x; however, the market’s message is that the estimates are too high. It is hard to envision that estimates are dramatically too high as proved to be the case in 2008 unless the economy is poised to roll-over hard, which seems unlikely. Assuming no recession or a shallow recession, then, the modest valuations may result in bank stocks having a good year even if fundamentals weaken and analysts cut estimates because the limited downside in earnings had been adequately priced into the stocks by late December.Bank M&A: Slowing Activity for 2019 LikelyOutwardly, 2018 has been another good year for bank M&A even though activity slowed in the fourth quarter. There were few notable deals other than Fifth Third’s pending acquisition of Chicago-based MB Financial valued at $4.8 billion at announcement and Synovus Financial’s pending acquisition of Boca Raton-based FCB Financial Holding valued for $2.8 billion at announcement. Even before bank stocks rolled over the shares of both Fifth Third and Synovus severely underperformed peers as investors questioned the exchange ratios, cost saving assumptions, credit risk (especially at FCB), and whether the buyers could keep the franchises intact as key personnel defected elsewhere.The national average price/tangible book multiple expanded to 173% from 166% in 2017 and about 140% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 before the sector was revalued in the wake of the national election. The median P/E of 25x was within the five-year range of 21x to 28x.The total number of bank and thrift transactions through December 24 totaled 261, which equated to 4.4% of the commercial bank and thrift charters as of year-end 2017. During 2014–2018, the number of acquisitions exceeded 4% each year except for 2016 when activity at the beginning of the year was hampered by weak stock prices as a result of a slowing economy that was marked by a collapse in oil prices and sharply wider credit spreads. Weak bank stock prices crimp the ability to negotiate deals because most sellers are focused on absolute price rather than relative value when taking the buyer’s shares as consideration; and, buyers usually are unwilling to increase the number of shares being offered given a limitation on minimum acceptable EPS accretion and maximum acceptable TBVPS dilution. A notable late year exception occurred when Cadence Bancorporation opted to increase the number of shares it will issue to State Bancorp by 9.6% because the double trigger in the merger agreement signed during May when Cadence’s share price was much higher came into play. Although there is no change in the driver of consolidation such as succession issues, shareholder liquidity needs, and economies of scale, a slowdown in M&A activity in 2019 is likely because bank stocks will enter the year depressed. Deals that entail some amount of common share consideration will be tough to structure unless sellers will be willing to take less, which most will not do with operating fundamentals in good shape for now. All cash deals will be impacted less, but all cash deals are more prevalent among very small institutions in which pricing usually occurs at a discount to those that entail some proportion of common shares. Summing It UpThe market is shouting fundamentals will weaken in 2019 after a long period of gradual improvement following the Great Financial Crisis, which most likely will be reflected in sluggish loan growth and modestly higher credit costs; however, bank stocks may surprise to the upside as they did to the downside in 2018 provided a) there is no recession or a shallow one; and, b) the Fed relents and does not hike further and potentially slows the run-off of its excess bonds (and liability reserves). For clients of Mercer Capital who obtain year-end valuations, rising stock prices since the presidential election may be reversed partially, given the compression in market price/earnings and price/tangible book value multiples that occurred in 2018.
Adjusted Earnings and Earning Power as the Base of the Valuation Pyramid
Adjusted Earnings and Earning Power as the Base of the Valuation Pyramid
The extensive use of core versus reported earnings by public companies has been a widespread phenomenon for at least 25 years. During the past decade, the practice also has become widespread among companies (and their bankers who market deals) that are issuing debt in the leverage loan and high yield markets.The practice is controversial. The SEC periodically will crack down on companies it thinks are pushing the envelope. Bank regulators have raised the issue of questionable adjustments to borrowers’ EBITDA for widely syndicated leverage loans.Investors are aware of the issue, too, but have not demanded the practice to stop. In mid-2017, I attended a conference on private credit. One session dealt exclusively with adjusted EBITDA. One panelist offered that adjustments in the range of 5-10% of reported EBITDA were okay, but the consensus was the adjustments were out of control. Covenant Review reported that as of mid-2017 the average leverage for middle market LBOs over the prior two years was 5.5x based upon the target’s adjusted EBITDA compared to reported EBITDA of ~7x. The issue is no better, and perhaps worse, in 2018 judging from market sentiment.If investors are solely relying upon company defined adjusted EBITDA, then they may be vacating their fiduciary duties when investing capital. That said, an analysis of core versus reported earnings is a critical element of any valuation or credit assessment of a non-early stage company with an established financial history.Table 1 below provides a sample overview of the template we use at Mercer Capital. The process is not intended to create an alternate reality; rather, it is designed to shed light on core trends about where the company has been and where it may be headed.AdjustmentsAdjustments typically consist of items that are non-recurring, unusual, and infrequent. They also may entail elements for a change in business operations, such as the addition of a new product or the discontinuation of a division. This is where judgment is particularly important because we have noticed a trend among some investors to credit businesses with future earnings for initiatives such as stepped-up hiring of revenue producers in which a favorable outcome is highly uncertain.Minority vs. ControlAdjustments considered should take into account whether the valuation is on a minority interest or controlling interest basis. An adjustment for an unusual litigation expense will not be impacted by the level-of-value; however, other potential adjustments—particularly synergies a buyer could reasonably be expected to realize would only apply in a control valuation.Core Trends vs. PeersThe development of the adjusted earnings analysis should allow one to identify the source of revenue growth and the trend in margins through a business cycle. The process also will facilitate comparisons with peers both historically and currently to thereby make further qualitative judgments about how the business is performing.Out Year Budget vs. Adjusted HistoryThe adjusted earnings history should create a bridge to next year’s budget, and the budget a bridge to multi-year projections. The basic question should be addressed: Does the historical trend in adjusted earnings lead one to conclude that the budget and multi-year projections are reasonable with the underlying premise that the adjustments applied are reasonable?Core Earnings vs. Ongoing Earning PowerCore earnings differ from earning power. Core earnings represent earnings after adjustments are made for non-recurring items and the like in a particular year. Earning power represents a base earning measure that is representative through the firm’s (or industry’s) business cycle and, therefore, requires examination of adjusted earnings ideally over an entire business cycle. If the company has grown such that adjusted earnings several years ago are less relevant, then earning power can be derived from the product of a representative revenue measure such as the latest 12 months or even the budget and an average EBITDA margin over the business cycle.Platform Companies/Roll-UpsCompanies that are executing a roll-up strategy can be particularly nettlesome from a valuation perspective because there typically is a string of acquisitions that require multiple adjustments for transaction related expenses and the expected earnings contribution of the targets. The math of adding and subtracting is straightforward, but what is usually lacking is seasoning in which a several year period without acquisitions can be observed in order to discern if past acquisitions have been accretive to earnings. Public market investors struggle with this phenomenon, too, but often the high growth profile of roll-ups will trump questions about earning power and what is an appropriate multiple until growth slows.Income and Market-Based Valuation ApproachesIn addition to providing insight into how a business is performing, the adjusted earnings statement will “feed” multiple valuation methods. These include the Discounted Cash Flow and Single Period Earning Power Capitalization Methods that fall under the Income Approach, and the Guideline (Public) Company and Guideline (M&A) Transaction Methods that constitute Market Approaches.It may be obvious, but we believe an analysis of adjusted (and reported) earnings statements for a subject company over a multi-year period is a critical, if not the critical element, in valuing securities that are held in private equity and credit portfolios. Mercer Capital has nearly 40 years of experience in which tens of thousands of adjusted earnings statements have been created. Please call if we can help you value investments held in your portfolio.Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Portfolio Valuation Newsletter: Fourth Quarter 2018
Value Drivers of a Store Valuation
Value Drivers of a Store Valuation
Auto dealers, like most business owners, are constantly wondering about the value of their business. Dealers can actually influence the value of their store by understanding the value drivers of a store valuation and addressing them on a consistent basis. So what are some of the value drivers of a store valuation?
Six Different Ways to Look at a Dealership
Six Different Ways to Look at a Dealership
So, how does a dealer evaluate their dealership? And how can advisers or formal business valuations assist dealers examining their dealership? There are at least six ways and they are important, regardless of the size.
6 Ways to Look at a Business
6 Ways to Look at a Business
Along the road to building the value of a business it is necessary, and indeed, appropriate, to examine the business in a variety of ways. Each provides unique perspective and insight into how a business owner is proceeding along the path to grow the value of the business and if/when it may be ready to sell. Most business owners realize the obvious events that may require a formal valuation: potential sale/acquisition, shareholder dispute, death of a shareholder, gift/estate tax transfer of ownership, etc. A formal business valuation can also be very useful to a business owner when examining internal operations.So, how does a business owner evaluate their business? And how can advisers or formal business valuations assist owners examining their businesses? There are at least six ways and they are important, regardless of the size of the business. All six of these should be contemplated within a formal business valuation.At a Point in Time. The balance sheet and the current period (month or quarter) provide one reference point. If that is the only reference point, however, one never has any real perspective on what is happening to the business.Relative to Itself over Time. Businesses exhibit trends in performance that can only be discerned and understood if examined over a period of time, often years.Relative to Peer Groups. Many industries have associations or consulting groups that publish industry statistics. These statistics provide a basis for comparing performance relative to companies like the subject company.Relative to Budget or Plan. Every company of any size should have a budget for the current year. The act of creating a budget forces management to make commitments about expected performance in light of a company’s position at the beginning of a year and its outlook in the context of its local economy, industry and/or the national economy. Setting a budget creates a commitment to achieve, which is critical to achievement. Most financial performance packages compare actual to budget for the current year.Relative to your Unique Potential. Every company has prospects for “potential performance” if things go right and if management performs. If a company has grown at 5% per year in sales and earnings for the last five years, that sounds good on its face. But what if the industry niche has been growing at 10% during that period?Relative to Regulatory Expectations or Requirements. Increasingly, companies in many industries are subject to regulations that impact the way business can be done or its profitability. Why is it important to evaluate a company in these ways? Together, these six ways of examining a company provide a unique way for business owners and key managers to continuously reassess and adjust their performance to achieve optimal results. A formal business valuation can communicate the company’s current position in many of these areas. Successive, frequent business valuations allow business owners and key managers the opportunity to measure and track the performance and value of the company over time against stated goals and objectives. Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, Third Quarter 2018
How to Determine Whether an Asset and Its Appreciation is Marital or Separate Property
How to Determine Whether an Asset and Its Appreciation is Marital or Separate Property
Under Tennessee law, marital property is subject to property division and separate property is excluded from property division in a divorce. The underlying factor in this distinction is whether the increase in value between the date of marriage and the date of divorce resulted from efforts by a spouse, known as active appreciation, or from external (economic, market, industry) forces, known as passive appreciation. While these concepts seem simple, the classifications are only part of the story.Classification of Marital and Separate PropertyTennessee Code 36-4-121 defines marital property as “all real and personal property, both tangible and intangible, acquired by either or both spouses during the course of the marriage up to the date of the final divorce hearing.”The same code section defines separate property as “all real and personal property owned by a spouse before marriage, property acquired in exchange for property acquired prior to marriage, property acquired by a spouse at any time by gift, bequest, devise or descent, etc.”Can a Marital Asset Ever Become Separate or Can a Separate Asset Ever Become Martial?Let’s examine this question in the context of a business or business interest as an example. If a couple or spouse starts a business or acquires a business interest during the marriage, then it would be classified as marital. Any appreciation or increase in value of the business or business interest would also be classified and remain a marital asset.Conversely, if a spouse starts a business or business interest prior to the date of marriage or acquires it by gift, bequest, devise or descent, then initially that business or business interest would be classified as a separate asset. What happens to that business or business interest if the value changes during the marriage? The increased value or appreciation of a business or business interest could be classified as marital or separate. How is this possible?If both spouses contribute to the preservation and appreciation of a separate property business or business interest and the contribution is “real” and “significant,” then the appreciation (increase in value) of the business or business interest would be determined to be a marital asset and subject to division. This is known as active appreciation.If, on the other hand, both spouses do not contribute to the appreciation in value, there is no appreciation in value, or the appreciation is attributable to passive forces, such as inflation, then the separate property business or business interest would remain separate.The following steps assist the financial analyst during the process: Is the business, or business interests, marital or separate? a. Compare the formation or inheritance date(s) to date of marriage.If the answer to (1) concludes pre-marital, separate property, value the business as of the date of marriage as a starting point. Then, value the business as of the date of divorce (or as close to as possible).If the value has increased from the date of marriage to the date of divorce, a determination of active (marital) versus passive (separate) shall commence.What Must Be DemonstratedTennessee code states that the substantial contribution of the non-business spouse “may include, but not be limited to, the direct or indirect contribution of the spouse as a homemaker, wage earner, parent or financial manager, together with such other factors as the court having jurisdiction thereof may determine.”A non-business owner spouse must be able to demonstrate two things in order for appreciation of a separate property business or business interest to become a marital asset: substantial contribution of both spouses contributing to the appreciation,and actual appreciation in the value of the business or business interest during the marriage. Most often, a valuation of the business or business interest at the date of marriage and also the date of filing would be required among other things to try and support this claim.This article has used a business or business interest to illustrate the concepts of martial vs. separate assets and also the appreciation in value. It should be noted that there could be potentially other considerations for these same issues with other assets, such as investment properties or passive assets (401Ks, etc.).ConclusionA financial expert, specifically one with expertise in business valuation, is vital in the determination of active appreciation (separate) versus passive appreciation (marital).The professionals of Mercer Capital can assist in the process. For more information or discuss an engagement in confidence, please contact us.Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, Third Quarter 2018
Views from the Road: What Do Community Banks, FinTech, and Buffalo Have in Common?
Views from the Road: What Do Community Banks, FinTech, and Buffalo Have in Common?
In the last few weeks, I presented at two events geared towards helping community banks achieve better performance: the Moss Adams Community Banking Conference in Huntington Beach, California and the FI FinTech Unconference in Fredericksburg, Texas. The FI FinTech Unconference had a recurring visual theme of the buffalo, which struck me as an insightful image for a FinTech conference.Much of the discussions at both conferences focused on the ability of community banks to adapt, survive, and thrive rather than thin out like the once massive North American buffalo herd. Both events had several presentations and discussions around FinTech and the need for community banks to evolve to meet customer expectations for improved digital interactions. Beyond thinking that I will miss the great views and weather I had for both trips, I came away with a few questions bankers should consider.How Can Community Banks Compete with Larger Banks?Larger banks are taking market share from smaller banks and have been gathering assets and deposits at a faster pace than community banks (defined as banks with less than $10 billion of assets) the last few decades. For example, banks with assets greater than $10 billion controlled around 85% of assets in mid-2018 compared to 50% in 1994. This is a significant trend illustrating how much market share community banks have ceded. Further, larger banks are producing higher ROEs, largely driven by higher levels of non-interest income (~0.90% of assets vs ~0.55%) and better operating leverage as measured by the efficiency ratio (~59% vs ~66%). The larger banks may widen their lead, too, given vast sums that are being spent on digital enhancements and other technology ventures to improve the client experience.Can FinTech Serve as a Value Enhancer and Help Community Banks Close the Performance Gap with Larger Banks?Most community banks are producing an ROE below 10%—an inadequate return for shareholders despite low credit costs. As a result, the critical role that a community bank fills as a lender to small business and agriculture is at risk if the board and/or shareholders decide to sell due to inadequate returns. Confronting this challenge requires the right team executing the right strategy to produce competitive returns for shareholders. FinTech solutions, rather than geographic expansion through branching and acquisitions, may be an option if FinTech products and processes can address areas where a bank falls short (e.g., wealth management).Can Community Banks Hold Ground and Even Win the Fight for Retail Deposits?Many community bank cost structures are wed to physical branches while customers— especially younger ones—are increasingly interacting with institutions first digitally and secondarily via a physical location. This transition is occurring at a time when core deposits are increasing in value to the industry as interest rates rise. In response, several larger banks, such as Citizens Financial, have increased their emphasis on digital delivery to drive incremental deposit growth. Additionally, as funding costs increase, some FinTech companies are being forced to consider partnerships with banks. Thus far, the digital banking push and the formal partnering of FinTech companies and banks are incremental in nature rather than reflective of a wholesale change in business models. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see whether community banks can adapt and effectively use technology and FinTech partnerships to compete and win retail deposit relationships in a meaningful way.How Can Community Banks Develop a FinTech Framework?Against this backdrop, I see four primary steps to developing a FinTech framework:Identify attractive FinTech niches such as deposits, payments, digital lending, wealth management, insurance, or efficiency (i.e., tech initiatives designed to reduce costs)Identify attractive FinTech companies in those nichesDevelop a business case for different strategies (estimate the Internal Rates of Returns and IRRs)Compare the different strategies and execute the optimal strategyWhat Are Some Immediate Steps that Banks Can Take Regarding FinTech?The things that banks can do right now to explore FinTech opportunities are:Get educated. There are an increasing number of events for community bankers incorporating FinTech into their agenda and we have a number of resources on the topic as wellBegin or continue to integrate FinTech into your strategic planDetermine what your customers want/need/expect in terms of digital offeringsSeek out FinTech partners that provide solutions and begin due diligence discussionsHow Mercer Capital Can HelpMercer Capital can help your bank craft a comprehensive value creation strategy that properly aligns your business, financial, and investor strategies. Given the growing importance of FinTech solutions to the banking sector, a sound value creation strategy needs to incorporate FinTech.We provide board/management retreats to educate you about the opportunities and challenges of FinTech for your institution. We can:Help your bank identify which FinTech niches may be most appropriate for your bank given your existing market opportunitiesHelp your bank identify which FinTech companies may offer the greatest potential as partners for your bankHelp provide assistance with valuations should your bank elect to consider investments or acquisitions of FinTech companiesWe are happy to help. Contact us at 901.685.2120 to discuss your needs. Originally published in Bank Watch, October 2018.
Accounting Standards  Update 2016-01: Impairment Considerations for  Equity Investments
Accounting Standards Update 2016-01: Impairment Considerations for Equity Investments
ASU 2016-01 shook up financial reporting at the beginning of the year, as companies scrambled to determine compliance with the new requirements for reporting equity investments.The rise of corporate venture capital over recent years largely flew under the accounting radar until this update took effect, creating significant volatility for many corporate investors in their reported earnings as they were required to recognize the gains and losses from investments previously held at cost.Now that the initial shock has worn off, CFOs may be able to rest a little easier, but they shouldn’t forget about the requirements under ASU 2016-01 entirely.Even if the company elected the measurement alternative that allows for the investment to be reported at cost, don’t forget about the requirement for impairment testing that goes along with it. Some companies may choose to perform the initial Step Zero analysis internally before engaging a valuation firm to navigate the rest of the process, while others turn over the entire process to a valuation professional.“An entity may elect to measure an equity security without a readily determinable fair value [and that does not qualify for the practical expedient]…at its cost minus impairment, if any, plus or minus changes resulting from observable price changes in orderly transactions for the identical or a similar investment of the same issuer.” ASU 2016-01 Paragraph 321-10-35-2 Originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Financial Reporting Update: Goodwill Impairment
Tax Reform and Impairment Testing
Tax Reform and Impairment Testing
Earlier this year, we considered the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (“TCJA”) on purchase price allocations.In this article, we turn our focus to the impact of the TCJA on goodwill impairment testing.Changes to the tax code will affect both the qualitative assessment (often referred to as Step Zero) and quantitative impairment test.Qualitative AssessmentCompanies preparing a qualitative assessment are required to assess “relevant events and circumstances” to evaluate whether it is more likely than not that goodwill is impaired.ASC 350 includes a list of eight such potential events and circumstances.Quantitative AssessmentThe same features which, on balance, have made it more likely that reporting units will garner a favorable qualitative assessment also contribute to the fair value of reporting units under the quantitative assessment.Reduction in income tax rate.All else equal, a reduction in the applicable federal income tax rate from 35% to 21% increases after-tax cash flows and contributes to higher fair values for reporting units.Bonus depreciation provisions.The tax bill allows certain capital expenditures to be deducted immediately for purposes of calculating taxable income.While the aggregate amount of depreciation deductions is unaffected, the acceleration of the timing of tax benefits can have a marginally positive effect on the fair value of some reporting units.Interest deduction limitations.One potentially negative effect of the tax bill on reporting unit fair values is the limitation on the amount of interest expense that is deductible for tax purposes.For some highly-leveraged businesses, the interest deduction limitation can increase the weighted average cost of capital.We expect the interest deduction limitations to adversely affect only a small minority of companies.Increase in after-tax cost of debt.When calculating the cost of debt as a component of the cost of capital, analysts multiply the pre-tax cost of debt by one minus the corporate tax rate.The new lower tax rate will, therefore, cause the after-tax cost of debt to increase by a small increment.All else equal, an increase to the weighted average cost of capital has a negative impact on the fair value of a reporting unit.On balance, we expect the negative effect from higher costs of capital to be smaller than the positive cash flow effect from lower tax rates.ConclusionThe Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is a material factor to be considered in both qualitative and quantitative assessments of goodwill impairment in 2018.While the provisions are not uniformly favorable to higher valuations, the balance of factors suggests that goodwill impairments will be less likely in the coming impairment cycle.To discuss how the new tax regime affects your company’s goodwill impairment more specifically, please give one of our professionals a call. Originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Financial Reporting Update: Goodwill Impairment
Financial Reporting  Fallacy: The Whole May Appear Healthier Than the Parts
Financial Reporting Fallacy: The Whole May Appear Healthier Than the Parts
A logical fallacy occurs when one makes an error in reasoning.Causal fallacies occur when a conclusion about a cause is reached without enough evidence to do so.The cum hoc (“with this”) fallacy is committed when a causal relationship is assumed because two events occur together.When it comes to financial reporting, an example of this fallacy would be assuming that goodwill cannot be impaired unless the company’s shares are trading below book value.This is a tempting fallacy–especially as the U.S. economy is continuing a long expansion, companies are posting solid earnings, and valuations are reaching new highs.The S&P 500 increased 19% in 2017 and the Nasdaq was up 28%.In these market conditions, goodwill impairment probably does not seem like a pressing concern.After all, goodwill is considered impaired only when fair value drops below carrying value, right?While this is true, accounting standards require that goodwill be tested for impairment at the reporting unit level.Impairment relates to a reporting unit’s ability to generate cash flows.This means that a company’s goodwill can be impaired at the reporting unit level, even as its stock trades above book value.This was the case for multinational conglomerate General Electric last year.GE had a tumultuous 2017 as the company’s CEO and CFO departed, the dividend was cut, and a corporate restructuring was announced.The salient event for the purposes of this article is a $947 million impairment loss recorded in its Power Conversion Unit during the third quarter of 2017.This unit is what became of GE’s 2011 $3.2 billion acquisition of Converteam, an electrical engineering company.According to the company’s 2017 annual report, the causes for this impairment included downturns in marine and oil and gas markets, pricing and cost pressures, and increased competition.GE’s stock felt the turmoil, falling 42% in 2017.Shares traded at $17.25 at their lowest point, implying a market capitalization of $150.5 billion.But even at this point, GE’s stock was not trading below book value ($64.3 billion at the end of 2017).GE’s market value exceeded book value of equity by $86.2 billion.So while impairment and market value/share price are related, it is not safe to assume that there is no impairment if the stock trades above book value.Another notable example is CVS Health.The company made headlines with one of the largest mergers of the year when it announced the acquisition of insurer Aetna, Inc. for $69 billion in December 2017.A smaller, less widely reported transaction transpired in November when the company announced the sale of its RxCrossroads reporting unit to McKesson Corp. for $735 million.This unit was part of CVS’s 2015 acquisition of nursing home pharmacy Omnicare, Inc. and provided reimbursement assistance and sales operation support, among other services.In the second quarter of 2017, CVS recognized a $135 million impairmentcharge related to this reporting unit.As with GE, CVS never traded below book value.CVS stock declined approximately 8% in 2017 and hit a low of $66.45 on November 6.The market capitalization at this point was approximately $67.7 billion.The book value of CVS equity was $34.9 billion at September 30, 2017 and $37.7 billion at year-end.The above examples expose the fallacious idea that a company can avoid impairment charges simply because its stock trades above book value.That is not to say that there is no relationship between the two; an impairment charge can certainly signal the market and affect share price, or a decline in share price may foreshadow an impending impairment charge.Because goodwill must be tested for impairment at the reporting unit level, impairment may occur even when the company’s market cap exceeds book value. Originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Financial Reporting Update: Goodwill Impairment
Automobile Dealership Valuation 101
Automobile Dealership Valuation 101
Valuation of a business can be a complex process requiring certified business valuation and/or forensic accounting professionals.
Venture Capitalists in the Family
Venture Capitalists in the Family
Many family offices are built from the success of once fledgling businesses that many would now know as household names. Successor generations seek to maintain and build that wealth through prudent investments in equities, fixed income, and private equity investments in mature companies. In recent years, however, family offices have started taking notes from their entrepreneurial beginnings and are investing more in early-stage ventures. Though more often seen as LPs in traditional venture capital funds, family offices are also increasingly taking on the role of direct—and sometimes lead—venture investors.An analysis from Crunchbase News shows the progression of family office venture investment over the last few years. While this is a small sample, it helps demonstrate the growing trend. Crunchbase also notes several prominent family venture-backed exits including Twilio, Okta, Bitly, and Workday.We have previously analyzed the rise of corporate venture capital and its effect on the funding landscape. So what does the increase in family office investors mean for venture capital? Here are a few of the characteristics that make venture investments from family offices unique.InvolvementDespite an industry focus on the new wealth being built in the technology hubs of the U.S., abundant sources of potential investment lay in family offices all over the country. Family office investors are likely to source deals through their personal networks and professional ties with local business activity. Family offices typically take an active interest in each portfolio company and, therefore, may be likely to invest their capital in local ventures in order to better stay up-to-date with company developments. In order to maintain this involvement, a board seat may also be one of the requirements when a family office joins the cap table.MotivationWhether they hold a share of the original family company or a subsequent business investment, family offices often have a stake in mature industry players. Because of previous work within the space or an inside vantage point from an ownership position, family offices can often lend industry insight. They may also possess a unique perspective for identifying startups that could disrupt, or partner with, the incumbents in the industry. Family office investors typically enter with strategic motivations for investing, not just the lure of large returns.Time HorizonThe primary focus of family offices is to preserve and grow capital for multiple generations. Family offices are, therefore, usually able to adopt a very long-term view of their overall portfolio. However, it should not be mistaken that family offices are willing to have their capital tied up forever. Like any other investment firm, family offices develop objectives and exit expectations for their various investments.As family offices join the landscape of non-traditional investors in venture capital, startups may find that they have more options when it comes to funding. We expect to continue to see an increase in the diversity of funding sources, with cap tables boasting a combination of traditional, corporate, and family investors.Originally published in Portfolio Valuation: Private Equity & Venture Capital Marks & Trends, Third Quarter 2018.
Beach Reading: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking – Qualified Business Income Deduction
Beach Reading: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking – Qualified Business Income Deduction
Struggling to find a page-turning read for that late summer beach escape?May we recommend the 184 pages of blissful decadence that comprise the Internal Revenue Service’s August 2018 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR) regarding the Qualified Business Income (QBI) deduction under the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA).Like a tightly wound murder mystery, the regulations weave a complex web.Tax code sections take the place of characters, the regulation’s intricacies unspooling as the narrative continues, relationships between Tax Code sections becoming (somewhat) clearer as the story (i.e., the regulation) progresses.As the NPR continues its inexorable march, certain storylines (i.e., planning opportunities) are forestalled, yet the NPR creates a glimmer of other opportunities.1The Abridged Version of the NPR in One SentenceBank shareholders are eligible for the 20% Qualified Business Income deduction.2 Intrigued?If so, the story continues.PrologueBefore examining the NPR, several tax-related trends are evident in 2018 regulatory filings.Effective tax rates are fallingMore banks are converting from S corporations to C corporationsSecurities portfolio allocations are evolvingDespite the attention it receives, tax reform is not solely responsible for improving bank profitability in 2018.Table 1 illustrates that pre-tax return on tangible common equity (ROATCE) has expanded in 2018, consistent with widening net interest margins for many banks and constrained credit costs.Effective tax rates declined from approximately 30% in the first half of 2017 to 21% in the comparable 2018 period, allowing banks to leverage the 50 to 100 basis point pre-tax ROATCE expansion into 150 to 200 basis points of after-tax ROATCE expansion.Table 2 indicates conversion activity from C corporation to S corporation status.Following tax reform, conversions increased significantly, as 53 banks changed their tax status in the first six months of 2018 versus nine in the prior year period.Nevertheless, this represents only a sliver of the approximately 2,000 banks taxed as S corporations.Several large S corporation banks elected to be taxed as C corporations in 2018; as a result, banks collectively holding $44 billion of assets converted in 2018, relative to only $5 billion in the prior year period.After passage of tax reform, some observers speculated that more conversion activity from S corporation to C corporation status would occur in states with relatively high personal tax rates, due to the $10 thousand limitation on the deductibility of state and local taxes.However, this trend is not yet apparent in conversion activity, as the states experiencing the most conversion activity include jurisdictions with both higher and lower personal tax rates.While more banks converted from S corporations to C corporations in 2018, relatively few did the reverse.As indicated in Table 3, nine banks converted from a C corporation to an S corporation in the first half of 2018, relative to 14 such conversions in the first half of 2017.Third, tax reform may influence banks’ investment portfolio positioning.While portfolio allocations reflect many factors, Chart 1 suggests that tax reform has affected investment strategies.Municipal securities remained relatively stable throughout 2017 at 28% of total securities; however, the proportion of municipal securities dropped to 26.9% at March 31, 2018 and 26.5% at June 30, 2018.This trend is consistent with our experience, where banks are not liquidating municipal securities due to tax reform but, at the margin, may prefer taxable alternatives for new purchases.RefresherInternal Revenue Code Section 199A provides a 20% deduction against the income reported by owners of sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S corporations.If only tax code provisions could be described in one sentence, though.The deduction may be taken against income generated by a Qualified Trade or Business (QTB).A QTB, in turn, is any business, other than a Specified Service Trade or Business (SSTB).In addition, certain W-2 income and asset limitations exist that may limit the 20% deduction.Lastly, individuals with income below certain levels may escape the SSTB and W-2 income/asset limitations; therefore, these owners would receive the 20% deduction whereas owners with higher incomes would not.The NPR provides guidance regarding, among other items, the definitions of QTBs and SSTBs.Other IssuesWhile banks definitely are eligible for the 20% Qualified Business Income deduction, several other items covered by the NPR may be of interest to bankers.Qualified Trade or Business DefinitionAn entity must be a Qualified Trade or Business to receive the 20% QBI deduction.From the TCJA, however, it was unclear if a QTB must be a “Section 162 trade or business.”While the Internal Revenue Code and regulations contain various definitions of a “business,” Section 162 contains a relatively restrictive definition.Unfortunately for taxpayers, the NPR adopts the Section 162 definition.While Section 162 has existed for many years, the regulations and case law interpreting the provision remain somewhat vague.One significant concern is that certain real estate entities will not be deemed Section 162 trades or businesses, therefore becoming ineligible for the 20% QBI deduction.For example, entities holding properties subject to triple net leases may face difficulties meeting the Section 162 requirements.From a credit standpoint, banks should be aware that tax savings expected by owners of certain real estate entities may not materialize.The TCJA’s Definition of an SSTBEntities providing professional services generally are deemed SSTBs.The business reality, though, is that some companies provide both a tangible product (like a widget) and services that would meet the definition of an SSTB (such as educational services regarding widgets).Will a company offering some consulting services, no matter how small a share of revenues, be deemed an SSTB?Under the TCJA, it was unclear.The NPR creates a de minimis exception for companies with small amounts of service revenues, although the thresholds appear relatively low to us.The TCJA also includes a “catch-all” provision deeming as SSTBs any businesses for which the reputation or skill of its owners or employees is a principal asset.This broad provision potentially captures a large swath of small businesses; for example, the reputation of a restaurant’s chef may result in the restaurant being deemed an SSTB.This result appears inconsistent with the TCJA’s statutory intent, and the NPR significantly limits the scope of the catch-all provision.The “Crack and Pack” StrategyCommentators noted that the TCJA created a tax planning opportunity for businesses deemed SSTBs.For example, consider a law firm that owns a building in which it operates.The law firm is an SSTB and its partners ineligible for the 20% deduction.The partners could transfer the building to a new real estate holding company, which is not deemed an SSTB.Therefore, the law firm partners have shifted income – via rent payments from the law firm to the real estate holding entity – from the SSTB (the law firm) to an entity qualifying for the QBI deduction (the real estate entity).Alas, the IRS cracked down on the “crack and pack” strategy.The NPR provides that income from a commonly-controlled entity that provides services to an SSTB is ineligible for the 20% deduction.However, the NPR may not entirely foreclose on all planning strategies.While the NPR limits the QBI deduction for commonly-controlled entities, commonality is deemed to exist if the businesses share 50% or more ownership.Therefore, the law firm may transfer its building to an entity owned equally by the law firm partners, an accounting firm’s partners, and a physician group.Since common control does not exist (i.e., neither the attorneys nor the accountants nor the physicians control more than 50% of the real estate firm’s ownership), the owners of the various services firms would be eligible for the 20% deduction on the real estate entity’s earnings.To bankers, business reorganizations triggered by the deduction limitations applicable to SSTBs may trigger lending requirements.ConclusionLike a good novel, the NPR’s “plot” is not fully resolved – some questions remain unanswered and multiple interpretations of other provisions are possible.Perhaps a sequel to the NPR is in order.Originally published in Bank Watch, August 2018.1As for literary criticism, Mercer Capital does not render tax or legal advice, and readers should consult with appropriate professionals regarding the application of Section 199A to any specific circumstances. 2 To expound upon our arbitrary one sentence limitation, it was relatively clear in the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act that bank shareholders are eligible for the 20% Qualified Business Income deduction, but the August 2018 NPR confirms this eligibility.
Trends to Watch in 2018
Trends to Watch in 2018
There are approximately 76 million members of the Baby Boomers in the U.S. – roughly 25% of the total population. Over of 60% of all businesses are owned by Baby Boomers, totaling nearly 4 million companies. Baby Boomers began turning 65 in 2011, and will do so at a rate of 10,000 people per month for another 12 years or so.
M&A Update: Good Gets Better
M&A Update: Good Gets Better
After a slow start, M&A activity among U.S. commercial banks and thrifts picked up to the point where 2018 should look like recent years. Historically, approximately 2% to 4% of the industry is absorbed each year via M&A. Since 2014, the pace has been at or slightly above 4% as a well performing economy, readily available financing, rising stock prices for bank acquirers, and strong asset quality and earnings of would be sellers have supported activity.There were 140 announced transactions according to S&P Global Market Intelligence through early July, which equates to 2.4% of 5,913 FDIC-insured institutions that existed as of year-end 2017. The average assets per transaction based upon YTD activity was $656 million, which is below the 28 year average of $1.1 billion. Pricing has trended higher as measured by the average price/tangible book value (P/TBV) multiple, which increased to 172% in 2018 from 164% in 2017 and about 140% in 2014-2016 before the sector was revalued after the national election on November 8, 2016. The median P/E based upon trailing 12 month earnings increased to 26x in 2018 from 23x in 2017 and 21x in 2016; however, the 2018 P/E based upon trailing 12 month earnings does not reflect a full year impact of the reduction in the top marginal federal tax rate to 21% from 35% that occurred on January 1. The adjusted P/E assuming the lower tax rate was in effect for 2017, too, is around 20-22x. Lower tax rates notwithstanding, it appears that buyers are still paying roughly 9-13x pro forma earnings assuming all expense savings are fully realized, a level of pricing that we believe has existed for many years excluding periods when industry fundamentals are stressed. For example, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) estimates the $4.6 billion consideration to be paid to MB Financial (MBFI) shareholders equates to 16.4x consensus 2019 earnings and 9.6x assuming all expense savings realized in 2019 (which will not be the case due to the phase-in lag). Cash Deals vs. Mix/Stock DealsDig deeper and, of course, there is more to the pricing story. The reduction in tax rates has had a material impact on profitability. Depending upon the index bank stocks rose 25-30% in the three months after the national election on November 8, 2016, on the expectation of what has mostly played out: a reduction in corporate tax rates, less regulation, higher short rates and faster economic growth. The improvement in public market multiples has supported expansion of M&A multiples when the majority of the consideration consists of the buyer’s common shares. As shown in Table 1, the median P/TBV and P/E ratios for transactions announced in the 20 months since the election were 173% and 23.0x compared to 147% and 20.3x for the 20 months ended November 8, 2016. Multiple expansion is even more pronounced when only 2018 deals are considered because the YTD median P/TBV and P/E multiples are 193% and 25.4x. Not surprisingly (to us), the median multiples for cash deals did not rise as much, increasing to 141% after the election compared to the 20 month pre-election median of 123%. Cash did not inflate in value over this period like public market bank stock valuations; hence, the only meaningful factor that drove the limited improvement in cash acquisition multiples was the increase in ROE. In addition, cash activity slowed post-election because buyers and sellers waited to see if would be sellers’ earning power would increase from a reduction in corporate tax rates, which was not confirmed until late 2017. Transactions in which the primary form of consideration consisted of the buyer’s common shares did not have to wait for the tax issue to be resolved because buyer and seller both faced the issue. Small Deals, Larger Deals, and Perhaps Big DealsM&A is largely a story of the consolidation of the small banks by large community and small regional banks. Two decades ago the theme was the same, but overlaid was the formation of the nationwide and multi-region franchises through mega-mergers such as NCNB/Bank of America and Wells Fargo/Norwest.Since the financial crisis, activity has mostly been confined to small deals with deal values a fraction of the pre-crisis and especially pre-2000 amounts. Annualized year-to-date deal value is $33 billion, which compares to approximately $26 billion annually during 2015-2017. By comparison, the value of announced transactions in 1997 and 1998 were many multiples greater at $97 billion and $289 billion, respectively.During the past five years, there only have been 10 deals that exceeded $2 billion of consideration and 22 deals in which the consideration exceeded $1 billion. As shown in Table 2, the two largest transactions involved Canadian banks, while three involved the large Ohio-based banks. Change may be afoot, however. Fifth Third’s $4.6 billion pending acquisition of MB Financial is its first bank acquisition since 2008, and it was announced a couple of days before President Trump signed into law the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act. Among other things, the financial deregulation law moved the SIFI asset threshold from $50 billion to $100 billion and provided significant relief for institutions such as Fifth Third that fall within the $100 billion to $250 billion asset bucket. Notably, during the past five years only CIT Group crossed the prior $50 billion SIFI threshold via acquisition, and apparently did so at the urging of regulators who wanted CIT to shore up its deposit funding. We look for more activity among mid-sized regional banks that are near or over $50 billion of assets; however, deal activity among the very largest banks is off the table given the $250 billion asset threshold for the global SIFI designation and the 10% nationwide deposit market share cap if pierced via acquisition. The potential fly in the ointment to the robust bank M&A environment is the flattening yield curve and the attendant underperformance of bank stocks this year. If bank stocks lag and valuations compress further, then it may be difficult for buyers to meet inflated seller expectations that rarely take into account downward moves in buyers’ share prices. How We Can HelpThe adage banks are sold rather than bought is largely true, meaning most banks transact when the sellers are ready to do so. Sometimes that occurs after years of planning; sometimes it occurs unexpectedly when another institution makes a casual inquiry.Mercer Capital has over three decades of experience as a financial advisor helping institutions navigate the process as buyer and seller. Even if your board has no interest in selling (or buying) we would be happy to present an overview to your board about the lay of the land as it relates to the public market, M&A market and what actions your board might consider to enhance value. Please call if we can be of assistance.Originally published in Bank Watch, July 2018.
Changing Tides on Lack of Marketability in Tennessee Courts
Changing Tides on Lack of Marketability in Tennessee Courts
For years, cases such as Bertuca1 and Barnes2 governed the landscape on the issue of marketability in the valuation of marital assets in Tennessee family law cases. Specifically, Bertuca involved a company called Capital Foods which held several McDonald’s franchise locations. In the decision, Bertuca did not allow for a discount to be taken for the lack of marketability for a nonpublicly traded company and offered the following reasoning:“...no indication…has any intention to sell…thus, the value of the business is not affected by the lack of marketability and discounting the value for nonmarketability in such a situation would be improper.”While Barnes involved a dental practice, the Court offered a similar explanation for excluding a discount for lack of marketability:“...inappropriate because no sale was ordered and there [was] no indication in the record that the Husband ha[d] any intention of selling his minority stock.”Both cases focused on the lack of an actual/imminent sale rather than the lack of marketability of these two underlying companies when compared to a publicly traded equivalent. The cases also left business valuation appraisers in a quandary, since this treatment of the lack of marketability didn’t seem to match the fair market value standard. The fair market value standard, discussed in Revenue Ruling 59-60, discusses the relevance of a willing buyer and a willing seller and also allows for potential discounts for lack of control and lack of marketability, where applicable.So what has changed now? In April 2017, House Bill 348 was passed by the Tennessee legislature. This Bill amends the Tennessee Code Annotated Title 36, Chapter 4 (TCA 36-4-121), relating to the equitable division of marital property. Specifically, this Bill allows for “considerations for a lack of marketability discount, a lack of control discount, and a control premium if any should be relevant and supported by the evidence for such assets” “without regard to whether the sale of the asset is reasonably foreseeable.”Effective July 2017, discounts for lack of marketability can now be considered in the valuation of assets in family law disputes. As with the valuation itself, it’s important to hire an accredited/credentialed business valuation appraiser to assist in the determination, documentation and support of any discounts for lack of control and marketability, along with any applicable premiums.End Note1 Bertuca v. Bertuca, No. M2006-00852-COA-R3-CV, 2007 WL 3379668 (Tenn Ct. App. Nov. 14, 2007).2 Barnes v. Barnes, No. M2012-02085-COA-R3-CV (Direct Appeal from the Chancery Court for Bedford County No. 27833, April 10, 2014). Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, Second Quarter 2018
Valuation of a Business for Divorce: Overview of Valuation Approaches, Normalizing Adjustments, and Potential Need for Forensics Services (1)
Valuation of a Business for Divorce: Overview of Valuation Approaches, Normalizing Adjustments, and Potential Need for Forensics Services
Valuation of a business can be a complex process requiring certified business valuation and forensic accounting professionals. Valuations of a closely held business in the context of a divorce are typically multifaceted and may require forensic investigative scrutiny for irregularities in the financials that may insinuate dissipation of business/marital property. Business valuations are a vital element of the marital dissolution process as the value of a business, or interests in a business, impact the marital balance sheet and the subsequent allocation/distribution of marital assets.Valuation ApproachesTo begin, the financial expert will request certain information and interview management of the Company. Information requested typically includes:Financial statements (usually the last five years)Tax returns (usually the last five years)Budgets or forecasted financials statementsBuy-sell agreementInformation on recent transactionsPotential non-recurring and/or unusual expensesQualitative information such as business history and overview, product mix, supplier and customer data, and competitive environment The financial expert must assess the reliability of the documentation and decide if the documents appear thorough and accurate to ultimately rely on them for his/her analysis. The three approaches to value a business are the Asset-Based Approach, the Income Approach, and the Market Approach.The Asset-Based ApproachThe asset-based approach is a general way of determining a value indication of a business, business ownership interest, or security using one or more methods based on the value of the assets net of liabilities. Asset-based valuation methods include those methods that seek to write up (or down) or otherwise adjust the various tangible and intangible assets of an enterprise.The Income ApproachThe income approach is a general way of determining a value indication of a business, business ownership interest, security or intangible asset using one or more methods that convert anticipated economic benefits into a present single amount.The income approach can be applied in several different ways. Valuation methods under the income approach include those methods that provide for the direct capitalization of earnings estimates, as well as valuation methods calling for the forecasting of future benefits (earnings or cash flows) and then discounting those benefits to the present at an appropriate discount rate. The income approach allows for the consideration of characteristics specific to the subject business, such as its level of risk and its growth prospects relative to the market.The Market ApproachThe market approach is a general way of determining a value indication of a business, business ownership interest, security or intangible asset by using one or more methods that compare the subject to similar businesses, business ownership interests, securities or intangible assets that have been sold.Market methods include a variety of methods that compare the subject with transactions involving similar investments, including publicly traded guideline companies and sales involving controlling interests in public or private guideline companies. Consideration of prior transactions in interests of a valuation subject is also a method under the market approach.Synthesis of Valuation ApproachesA proper valuation will factor, to varying degrees, the indications of value developed utilizing the three approaches outlined. A valuation, however, is much more than the calculations that result in the final answer. It is the underlying analysis of a business and its unique characteristics that provide relevance and credibility to these calculations.The Levels (Premise) of ValueDoes it make a difference in value per share if you own 10% or 75% of a business? You bet it does. A 10% interest is a minority interest and does not enjoy the prerogatives of control. How does this affect value per share? The minority owners bear witness to a process over which they may have no control or discretion. In effect, they often play the role of silent partners; therefore, the fair market value per share of a minority owner is likely worth less per share than the shares of a 75% owner.Likewise, a minority owner of a private business likely does not have a ready market in which to sell their interest. Minority ownership in a publicly traded company enjoys near instantaneous liquidity such as trading stock on organized and regulated exchanges. The unique uncertainties related to the timing and favorability of converting a private, minority ownership interest to cash gives rise to a valuation discount (lack of marketability discount) which further distances the minority owner’s per share value from that of a controlling owner’s value per share.The following chart provides perspective of the various levels of value. In most cases a valuation is developed at one level of value and then a discount or premium is applied to convert to another level. These discounts are known as discounts for lack of control and lack of marketability. Knowing when to apply such adjustments and quantifying the size of these adjustments is no simple matter, requiring the need for a credentialed business valuation professional.Importance of Normalizing AdjustmentsNormalizing adjustments adjust the income statement of a private company to show the financial results from normal operations of the business and reveal a “public equivalent” income stream. Keep in mind the levels of value in business valuation, discussed above. In creating a public equivalent for a private company, another name given to the marketable minority level of value is “as if freely traded,” which emphasizes that earnings are being normalized to where they would be as if the company were public, hence supporting the need to carefully consider and apply, when necessary, normalizing adjustments. There are two categories of adjustments.Non-Recurring, Unusual ItemsThese adjustments eliminate one-time gains or losses, unusual items, non-recurring business elements, expenses of non-operating assets, and the like. Examples include, but are not limited to:One-time legal settlement. The income (or loss) from a non-recurring legal settlement would be eliminated and earnings would be reduced (or increased) by that amount.Gain from sale of asset. If an asset that is no longer contributing to the normal operations of a business is sold, that gain would be eliminated and earnings reduced.Life insurance proceeds. If life insurance proceeds were paid out, the proceeds would be eliminated as they do not recur, and thus, earnings are reduced.Restructuring costs. Sometimes companies must restructure operations or certain departments, the costs are one-time or rare, and once eliminated, earnings would increase by that amount.Discretionary ItemsThese adjustments relate to discretionary expenses paid to or on behalf of owners of private businesses. Examples include the normalization of owner/officer compensation to comparable market rates, as well as elimination of certain discretionary expenses, such as expenses for non-business purpose items (lavish automobiles, boats, planes, etc.) that would not exist in a publicly traded company.For more, refer to our article “Normalizing Adjustments to the Income Statements” and Chris Mercer’s blog. The Need for Forensic ServicesThe process of valuing a business is complicated and the financial expert, during the course of his/her analysis, must consider various levels of value, normalization adjustments, as well as methods of valuation to most appropriately conclude on the business.Valuations of a closely held business in the context of a contentious divorce can be especially multifaceted and may require additional forensic investigative scrutiny for any irregularities in the financials that may insinuate dissipation of business/marital property in anticipation of the divorce and valuation. Examples may include, but are not limited to: Owner Compensation. Owners may reduce earnings in anticipation of divorce to appear to have lower earnings capacity. Owners or executives with ownership interest may have made arrangements within the business to receive a post-divorce pay-out. A financial expert, through review of historical financial statements and tax returns, as well as an analysis of the lifestyle of the family, may gather support of the true earnings.Rent expense. Owners of a company may also own the land and/or building to which the business’ rent expense is paid, otherwise referred to as a related party. If the rent has increased in anticipation of the divorce, the related party may be taking on pre-paid rent or higher than market rent rates to reduce income. A financial expert may review historical expenses and assess the reasonableness of the rent expense.Discretionary expenses. Owners may use business funds to pay for personal, non-business related expenses such as vacations, lavish cars, boats, meals & entertainment, among others. A financial expert can review historical transactions to assess if such items are non-business related and if normalization adjustments are necessary for valuation purposes. It is important to consider these types of situations if only one spouse is involved with the operations and management of the company, otherwise referred to as the “in-spouse.” That spouse may, or may not, have been altering the financial position of the business in anticipation of divorce and a potential independent business valuation. The services of a financial expert can be vital to you and your client in such matters, as the accuracy of the valuation may impact the equitable distribution of the marital assets.ConclusionIf suspicions do not necessitate forensic services, perhaps only a business valuation scope is necessary. Furthermore, if the business or an interest was recently bought or sold, if it was recently appraised, or if its value is in a financial statement or a loan application, that information may go a long way in establishing the value of the business (if both parties feel that this value is a fair representation). However, since a business valuation report and expert witness are admissible in court as evidence and since the value of a business or interest impacts the marital balance sheet and the subsequent asset distribution, it may be exceedingly beneficial to hire a professional for evidentiary support.Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, Second Quarter 2018
AICPA Publishes Guide for FV Marks
AICPA Publishes Guide for FV Marks
On May 15, the AICPA’s Financial Reporting Executive Committee released a working draft of the AICPA Accounting and Valuation Guide Valuation of Portfolio Company Investments of Venture Capital and Private Equity Funds and Other Investment Companies. The document provides guidance and illustrations for preparers of financial statements, independent auditors, and valuation specialists regarding the accounting for and valuation of portfolio company investments of venture capital and private equity funds and other investment companies.The comment period ends August 15, 2018.
Takeaways from FinXTech 2018: The Rise of Bank and FinTech Partnerships
Takeaways from FinXTech 2018: The Rise of Bank and FinTech Partnerships
I recently attended FinXTech, an industry event where the hosts at Bank Director bring together FinTech founders and bank directors and executives for productive conversations about the road ahead as partners (and competitors).Those discussions occurred against a backdrop in which FinTech, as a concept to enhance the customer experience and to drive operating efficiencies, is widely accepted by bank management, shareholders, and regulators. How “FinTech” is implemented varies depending upon resources. As shown in the Table 1, there has been no surge of M&A in which banks buy FinTech companies. Only nine of 276 transactions announced since year-end 2016 entailed a bank or bank holding company acquirer. KeyCorp, which has been one of the nine active FinTech acquirers, announced in June 2018 that it would acquire digital lending technology for small businesses built by Chicago based FinTech company Bolstr. At best, activity can be described as episodic as it relates to bank acquisitions, which appears to be designed to supplement internal development.The very largest banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. are spending billions of dollars annually to upgrade technology—a level of spending that even super regional banks cannot match. In contrast, community and regional banks have been left scratching their heads about how to address FinTech-related issues when money is a constraining factor.During the FinXTech 2018, the focus shifted from the potential disruption of a bank’s franchise by FinTech to the potential to partner with FinTech companies, which stood out to me as a marked change from prior years.Both banks and FinTech companies realize that they need each other to some degree. For banks, FinTech offers the potential to leverage innovation and new technologies to meet customer expectations, enhance efficiency, and compete more effectively against the biggest banks. For FinTech companies, the benefits from bank partnerships can include the potential to leverage the bank’s customer relationships to scale more quickly, access to funding, and regulatory/compliance expertise. Several examples of successful partnerships between banks and FinTech companies were highlighted at the FinXTech event. (You can read more about some of them here.)The FinTech/Bank partnership theme also was evident in GreenSky’s recent IPO, a FinTech company based in Atlanta. GreenSky arranges loans primarily for home improvement projects. Bank partners pay GreenSky to generate and service the loans while the bank funds and holds the loans on their balance sheet. As more partnerships emerge, it will be interesting to see if FinTech impacts the valuation of banks that effectively leverage technology to achieve strategic objectives such as growing low-cost core deposits, opening new lending venues, and improving efficiency. One would think the answer will be “yes” if the impact can be measured and is meaningful.Another trend to look for will be whether smaller banks become more active as investors in FinTech companies. For the most part, investments by community and regional banks in FinTech companies remains sporadic at best even though FinTech companies raised nearly $16 billion of equity capital between year-end 2016 and June 2018 in both private and public offerings. An interesting transaction we observed was a $16 million Series A financing by Greenlight Financial Technology, Inc., a creator of smart debit cards, in which the investors included SunTrust Bank, Amazon Alexa Fund, and $619 million asset NBKC Bank, among others.FinXTech 2018 included several sessions related to due diligence for FinTech partnerships; however, with limited M&A and investing activity by banks there was little discussion about valuation issues, which can be challenging for FinTech companies and differs markedly from methods employed to value a bank.Not surprisingly, we have lots of thoughts on the subject.With the emerging partnership theme from FinXTech 2018 in mind, view our complimentary webinar “How to Value an Early-Stage FinTech Company.” Additionally, if you have questions, reach out to one of our professionals to discuss your needs in confidence.Originally published in Bank Watch, June 2018.
Tax Reform and  Purchase Price Allocations
Tax Reform and Purchase Price Allocations
On December 22, 2017, President Trump signed The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which resulted in sweeping changes to the U.S. tax code.The Act decreased the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, in addition to modifying specific provisions around interest, depreciation, carrybacks, and repatriation taxes.The change in tax rate will have the biggest impact on purchase accounting.Cash Flows and ReturnsWhen we evaluate prospective financial information, a lower tax rate will result in higher after-tax earnings.The value of the tax shield created by depreciation and deductions will be influenced by both the lower corporate tax rate (which reduces the tax shield’s value) and accelerated depreciation of qualifying capital equipment purchases (which increases the tax shield’s value).In most cases, a lower tax rate will increase cash flows, increasing the internal rate of return on acquisitions for a given purchase price.On the other hand, if lower tax rates drive higher purchase prices, internal rates of return may be unchanged.In terms of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), the lower tax rate actually increases the after-tax cost of debt.Keeping other inputs constant, this modestly increases WACCs.Relief from RoyaltyUnder the relief from royalty method, after-tax royalties avoided increase as the tax rate falls.However, the tax amortization benefit (TAB) component of the intangible value also declines as a result of the lower tax rate, which serves to partially offset the increase in after-tax cash flows.Scenario AnalysisIn a scenario analysis used to value a noncompete agreement, a lower tax rate will again decrease the tax amortization benefit.Since both scenarios under the with and without approach will reflect the same tax rate, the impact of the new lower rate will be muted.As a result, the fair value of noncompete agreements may well be somewhat lower under the new tax rate.Cost ApproachThe cost approach, which is often used to value assets such as the assembled workforce or some technologies, the impact depends on whether a pre-tax or after-tax measurement basis is used.If fair value is measured on a pre-tax basis, the fair value of such assets is unaffected.If measured on an after-tax basis, costs avoided net of tax will be higher under lower tax rates, although this gain will be offset somewhat by the decrease in the TAB. Multi-Period Excess Earnings Method The impact of the tax rate on assets valued under the Multi-Period Excess Earnings Method (MPEEM) is more ambiguous since two key elements will be affected – the contributory asset charges and the tax rate used to derive after-tax cash flows.On the cash flow side of things, the lower tax rate will result in higher cash flow but a lower TAB.As far as contributory assets are concerned:Relief from royalty asset charges will increase under a lower tax rateWith and without scenario analysis with level payments charges will potentially decrease due to the lower base valueCost approach asset charges may increase or decrease depending on the net effect of taxes and TAB calculationsGoodwill The net impact of a lower tax rate on goodwill will vary by transaction.If the lower tax rate results in a higher transaction price, the aggregate increase in fair value will likely result in a larger allocation to goodwill.If, instead, the lower tax rate increases the projected IRR on a transaction, the impact on residual goodwill is harder to predict and will depend on the composition of the assets acquired.The changes to corporate taxes under the new bill are wide-ranging.In addition to the effect of lower rates discussed in this article, fair value specialists need to be alert to how other specific provisions of the bill may influence individual companies.Impact of Tax Rate Decrease on Valuation MethodCash Flows/Returns Higher after-tax cash flows/impact on returns depends on transaction priceTax Amortization Benefits DecreaseRelief from Royalty Method Increase (potential offset by decrease in TAB)Cost Approach (pre-tax) No ChangeCost Approach (post-tax) Increase (potential offset by decrease in TAB)With and Without Scenario Potentially lower (potential offset by decrease in TAB)MPEEM May Increase or Decrease (depends on magnitude of other changes)
What You Need to Know about Measuring the Fair Value of Contingent Consideration
What You Need to Know about Measuring the Fair Value of Contingent Consideration
The stakes for a business combination are high. Each party must negotiate a price and deal terms that promote its own interests but accommodate the counterparty’s expectations. Reaching an agreement can be a lengthy process and may require incorporating special provisions to help close the deal. Contingent consideration is a common example of such a provision.Measuring the fair value of contingent consideration (commonly referred to as an “earnout”) for financial reporting is a complex process – based on a number of variable inputs, unique risk profiles, and potentially complicated payoff structures.Valuation professionals must be well versed in the concepts of fair value, probability, and risk.Here’s what you need to know about what goes into that fair value measurement before it lands on your desk.How Does an Earnout Differ from Other Purchase Price Adjustments?While both purchase price adjustments and earnouts can affect the total consideration paid in a transaction, they differ substantially in terms of criteria and realization.Common purchase price adjustments include adjustments for working capital, client consents, and indebtedness.Purchase price adjustments, which are based on financial statement information, are observable and knowable at the closing date of the transaction, while earnouts are not.Earnouts, on the other hand, are payments based on performance that occurs subsequent to the measurement date. Although the eventual earnout payment cannot be known at the closing date, valuation specialists have developed techniques to enhance the reliability of fair value measurements.What Criteria Must Be Established in a Fair Value Measurement?The Purchase Agreement establishes the basic criteria, structure, and time frame for the earnout.Based on these characteristics, the valuation professional must determine several inputs for his or her modeling.Earnout Metric The Purchase Agreement will define one or more performance metrics for the earnout.A common example is EBITDA for the twelve-month period following the acquisition.The future outcome(s) of the relevant metrics are used to determine the future payout.For purposes of fair value measurement, valuation specialists may reference management projections, analyst expectations, and industry forecasts to model the expected payoff.VolatilitySince the actual value of the earnout metric cannot be known with certainty at the measurement date, the expected value is paired with an estimate of expected volatility. While there are several ways to estimate expected volatility, the estimate should be reasonable in the context of the volatility observed for similar companies, the subject company’s fundamentals, and the characteristics of the specific metric.Discount RateThe appropriate discount rate may be estimated through a bottom-up approach, where beta is built up using earnout-related factors, or through a top-down approach, which starts with the beta implied by the equity discount rate for the company overall.In the top-down approach, the valuation professional adjusts the company level beta up or downward for differences in risk between the metric and the company’s equity. The type of risk associated with the metric will affect the model that should be used to value the earnout.The two broad categories of risk are:Diversifiable. Diversifiable or “unsystematic” risk is specific to the subject company and can be reduced through diversification. For example, the risk associated with occurrence of a nonfinancial milestone such as patent approval is considered diversifiable.Non-Diversifiable. Non-diversifiable or “systematic” risk is related to the risk inherent in the market. For example, the risk associated with achieving a financial target such as revenue growth is considered non-diversifiable.Payoff StructureThe structure of the earnout reflects the provisions established in the Purchase Agreement.Questions that a valuation specialist may ask include:Is the underlying metric risk diversifiable (unsystematic) or not (systematic)?Is the payoff structure linear or non-linear?If multiple periods are involved, are the periods dependent on, or independent of, the other periods?The answers to these questions can help the valuation professional determine the structure of the payoff and whether a scenario based model or option pricing model is best suited to the fair value measurement of the earnout liability.TermThe term over which the metric is measured is established in the Purchase Agreement.The earnout may be determined after one period or over a multi-period time frame. Payments may be made throughout the earnout period, at the end of the earnout period, or at a later date. Additional time to payment may increase counterparty risk, or the risk that the Buyer will default on the earnout payment due.Credit Risk of the BuyerEarnouts typically represent a subordinate, unsecured liability for the Buyer.Thus, risk should be considered for the Buyer’s ability to meet the earnout obligation, commonly called counterparty credit risk or default risk. A valuation professional will look for any mitigating factors that could reduce or eliminate this risk, including:Guarantee by a bank or third partyEscrow account for full or partial funding of the earnoutEarnout structured as a note to increase its security rankingWhat Methods Are Used to Measure Fair Value?The two primary methods used to measure fair value are the scenario based method and the option pricing method. Selection of the method and model most appropriate for a given situation will depend on to the structure and risk profile of the subject earnout.Scenario Based MethodUnder the scenario based method, valuation specialists apply probability weights to the relevant metrics, and then discount the corresponding payouts at an appropriate rate. This method is most appropriate when the underlying metric for the earnout has a linear payoff structure or the underlying risk is diversifiable. Models within this method can effectively conform to any distribution assumption. This method is intuitive and is likely to mimic how the parties to the transaction thought about the earnout. However, these models can be perceived as unreliable since the inputs are qualitative in nature.Option Pricing MethodWhen applying the option pricing method, valuation specialists use models such as Black-Scholes to measure the fair value of a portfolio of financial instruments that replicate the potential payouts of the earnout structure. This method is best suited for earnouts with nonlinear payoff structures and metrics with non-diversifiable risk. A significant benefit to the method is that the use of historical data to estimate volatility, correlation, and the discount rate creates consistency among input assumptions. However, the complexity of the mathematics associated with the models is not well understood by those without financial expertise, rendering them much less intuitive.Understanding the DifferencesA simple example of an earnout that could be modeled with the scenario based method is as follows: a payment of 30% of the next fiscal year EBITDA. The payoff in this model is linear since it has a constant relationship with the relevant metric, meaning that a payout is due whether EBITDA is $1 million or $100 million (Example 1 below).In contrast, an earnout with a threshold or cap is better suited to an option pricing method. For example, a payment of 30% of the next fiscal year EBITDA only if EBITDA meets or exceeds $50 million. The payoff is the same as the linear scenario after EBITDA reaches the threshold; however, the payoff is $0 for any value of EBITDA below that.The second example can be modeled as a portfolio of options, where the threshold value of the metric ($50 million) acts as an effective strike price.What Guidance Exists Regarding Fair Value Measurement of Contingent Consideration?The measurement of contingent consideration has historically been a matter of considerable diversity in practice.While some common practices have generally been followed, new guidance clarifies best practices.A working group formed by The Appraisal Foundation issued a first exposure draft of new guidance regarding the measurement of contingent considerations in February 2017.This guidance details the methods described above and best practices for their application. The exposure draft endorses the risk-neutral valuation framework as the preferred basis for fair value measurements.A risk-neutral framework makes risk adjustments to the earnout metric to account for the unsystematic risk inherent in the metric. The guidance is expected to promote the consistency and reliability of fair value measurements.What Are the Implications of Fair Value on Financial Statements?Earnouts can act as a way to “bridge the gap” between what the Buyer wants to pay and what the Seller wants to receive. They can provide downside protection for the Buyer and upside potential for the Seller. These benefits contribute to the common use of earnout provisions in business combinations. However, the financial reporting consequences of an earnout may be counterintuitive once the transaction has closed and the Buyer becomes the owner of the acquired company.Subsequent to this point, if the relevant metric exceeds initial expectations, the Buyer will report a loss on its income statement associated with remeasuring the contingent liability at its new, higher value. In effect, if business goes well, the Buyer will report a loss. In contrast, if business goes poorly, the Buyer will report a gain upon remeasurement of the contingent liability at its new, lower fair value. Sophisticated deal makers understand the short-term implications for the Buyer’s financial statements but remain focused on the long-term goal.ConclusionThe uncertainty associated with contingent consideration means that the fair value of the earnout will rarely equal the amount that is actually paid out at the future payment date. While valuation professionals do not know what the future holds, they do have tools and techniques to reliably measure the fair value of the earnout liability as of the date of the transaction. While the nuances encountered in fair value measurement of earnouts can extend well beyond the scope of this article, we hope it provided some insight into what goes into the numbers before they reach your company’s accounting department.The inclusion of an earnout in a transaction negotiation can serve various purposes.Bridge the differences in Buyer and Seller expectationsServe as a form of alternative financing and defer a portion of the purchase priceProvide incentive for management to help the company meet post-transaction targetsShift and allocate risk between the various parties involvedThe motivation behind an earnout can influence management’s choice of earnout structure in order to achieve the intended purposes.Definition of Fair Value (ASC 820)“The price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date.”Objective of Fair Value Measurement (ASC 820)“To estimate the price at which an orderly transaction would take place between market participants under the market conditions that exist at the measurement date.”
Potential for Platooning
Potential for Platooning
Would you follow another truck at less than 50 feet if it could create marginal improvements in fuel efficiency? Under normal circumstances, that would be dangerously reckless. However, platooning technology might make this realistic – and safe – option for truck drivers in the near future.
Is There a Ticking Time Bomb Lurking in Your Family Business?
Is There a Ticking Time Bomb Lurking in Your Family Business?
When we talk with family business owners, most confess a vague recollection of having signed a buy-sell agreement, but only a few can give a clear and concise overview of their agreement’s key terms. Yet no other governing document has such potentially profound implications for the business and for the family. My colleague of nearly twenty years, Chris Mercer, literally wrote the book(s) when it comes to buy-sell agreements. Chris and I recently sat down to talk about buy-sell agreements in the context of family businesses. Travis: Chris, to start off, what is the purpose of a buy-sell agreement? Why should a family business have one? Chris: A buy-sell agreement ensures that the owners of a business will have as fellow-owners only those individuals who are acceptable to the group. A buy-sell agreement formalizes agreements in the present – while everyone is alive and well – regarding how future transactions will occur, with respect to both pricing and terms, when the agreement is “triggered.” Every business with two or more owners should have a buy-sell agreement, and that includes family businesses. What I can tell you, after many years of working with companies and their buy-sell agreements, is that once an agreement is triggered, e.g., by the death, disability or departure of a shareholder, the interests of the departed and remaining shareholders diverge. When interests diverge, an agreement is virtually impossible even, or especially, within families. So, a well-crafted buy-sell agreement establishes an agreement in advance, so the family can avoid problems and conflict in the future. Travis: The title of your first book on buy-sell agreements described them as either reasonable resolutions or ticking time bombs. How could a buy-sell agreement become a ticking time bomb for a family business? Chris: Sure – here’s a quick example. Some agreements specify a fixed price for shares that the shareholders have all agreed to. The price is binding until updated to a new agreed-upon price. The idea sounds good in principle, but in reality, the owners almost never agree on an updated price. Years later, after a substantial increase in a company’s value renders the agreed-upon price stale, a trigger event occurs. The ticking time bomb explodes on the departing shareholder who receives an inadequate price for their shares. A second explosion occurs with the ensuing litigation to try to “fix” the problem. Needless to say, I do not recommend the use of fixed-price valuation mechanisms in buy-sell agreements. Travis: Buy-sell agreements often define a formula for determining value when triggered. Can a “formula price” provide for a reasonable resolution? Chris: Travis, I’ve said many times that some owners and advisers search for the perfect formula like the Knights Templar sought the Holy Grail. The perfect formula does not exist. Given changes in the company over time, evolving industry conditions, emerging competition, and changes in the availability of financing, no formula will remain reasonable over time. It is simply not possible to anticipate all the factors an experienced business appraiser would consider at a future date. All this assumes that the formula is understandable. Some formulas in buy-sell agreements are written so obtusely that reasonable people reach (potentially quite) different results. As you might suspect, I do not recommend the use of formula pricing mechanisms in buy-sell agreements. Travis: Other agreements provide for an appraisal process upon a trigger event. What are benefits or pitfalls of such appraisal processes? Chris: The most common appraisal process found in buy-sell agreements calls for the use of two or three appraisers to determine the price to be paid if and when a trigger event occurs.   One of the biggest problems out of the gate is that no one knows what the price of their shares will be until the end of a lengthy and potentially disastrous appraisal process. Let me explain. Assume that the shareholders have agreed on an appraisal process to determine price upon a trigger event. The Company retains one appraiser and the selling shareholder retains a second. Far too often, the language describing the type of value for the appraisers to determine is vague and inconsistent. The selling shareholder’s appraiser interprets value as an undiscounted strategic value, say $100 per share. The company’s appraiser interprets the same language as calling for significant minority interest and marketability discounts and concludes a value of, say, $40 per share. The agreement calls for the two appraisers to agree on a third appraiser who is supposed to resolve the issue. How? The two positions are not reconcilable. Litigation, unhappiness, wasted time and expense follow as the time bomb, which has been in place for years, explodes on all the parties. Travis: So if fixed price, formula price, and appraisal process agreements all have serious drawbacks, what kind of pricing mechanism do you recommend for most family businesses? Chris: Based on my experiences over many years, I have concluded that the best pricing mechanism for most family businesses is what I call a Single Appraiser, Select Now and Value Now valuation process. The parties agree on a single appraiser (I’d recommend Mercer Capital, of course!). The selected appraiser provides a valuation now, at the time of selection, based on the language in the buy-sell agreement. This ensures that any confusion is eliminated at the time of signing or revision. The appraisal sets the price for the buy-sell agreement until the next (preferably annual) appraisal. With this kind of process, virtually all of the problems we’ve discussed are eliminated, or reduced substantially. All the shareholders know what the current value is at any time. Importantly, they all know the process that will occur with every subsequent appraisal. The certainty provided by this Single Appraiser, Select Now and Value Now process far outweighs the uncertainty inherent in other processes at a reasonable cost. At Mercer Capital, we provide annual appraisals of over 100 companies for buy-sell agreements and other purposes. Travis: Finally, what is your best piece of advice for family business owners when it comes to buy-sell agreements? Chris: The best advice I have for family business owners is to be sure that there is an agreement regarding their buy-sell agreements. Many companies have had agreements in place for many years, often decades, without any changes or revisions. No one knows what will happen if they are triggered. Agreement regarding a buy-sell agreement should be the result of review by all shareholders, corporate counsel, and, I recommend, a qualified business appraiser. The appraiser should review agreements from business and valuation perspectives to be sure that the valuation mechanism will work when it is triggered. Discussions are not always easy, since shareholders from different generations and different branches of the family tree have differing objectives and viewpoints. Yet if all parties can agree now, the family can avoid unnecessary strife and litigation in the future. So the best advice I have is to “Just Do It!” ConclusionYour family’s buy-sell agreement won’t matter until it does. As families prepare for their next business meeting, leaders should carefully consider putting a review of the buy-sell agreement on the agenda.
Benefits of a Financial Expert in Family Law: Why & When to Hire
Benefits of a Financial Expert in Family Law: Why & When to Hire
Most family law attorneys do not have a background in finance or accounting, yet are often confronted with complex financial issues in divorce matters. The services of an experienced financial expert can be vital to you and your client in such matters.In vetting financial experts, look for those who specialize in business valuation and forensic accounting. However, don’t pigeon-hole your expert. If your matter doesn’t require a business valuation or the tracing of dissipated assets, a financial expert can still be of great help to you in each phase of the process: discovery, deposition, and trial.Beyond valuation, tracing, and testifying, below is a list of services a skilled financial expert provides to help you uncover and understand financial issues:Determine financial documentation requests for subpoenaExamine submitted financial documentsEvaluate the accuracy of previously mentioned documentsAssess whether further support is necessaryAssemble relevant informationQuantify the financial elements of a caseIdentify and classify marital and nonmarital assets and liabilitiesAssist with interrogatory draftingSupport deposition questionnaire draftingAttend depositions for real-time financial support In financial situations that may be scrutinized by regulators, courts, tax collectors, and a myriad of other lurking adversaries, the financial, economic, and accounting experience and skills of a financial expert are invaluable. To receive the highest benefit of financial expert services, hire the financial expert with ample time to assist with the various stages of the case and provide the expert access to pertinent documentation and information. A competent financial expert will be able to define and quantify the financial aspects of a case and effectively communicate the conclusion. For more information or to discuss your matter with us, please don’t hesitate to contact us. Originally published in Mercer Capital’s Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, First Quarter 2018
The Important Role of Personal Financial Statements in Divorce
The Important Role of Personal Financial Statements in Divorce
High dollar, contested divorce litigation engagements often involve complex financial issues. In turn, those financial issues usually include business valuations and voluminous amounts of documents and financial information. How does an attorney or business appraiser determine what is crucial to the case and what is secondary information? One such piece of financial information that varies wildly in its interpretation and importance to the case is a personal financial statement.What Is a Personal Financial Statement?Depending on the jurisdiction, most family law attorneys are familiar with documents often referred to as Sworn Financial Affidavits, Asset/Liability Statements, Marital Balance Sheet or Divorce Financial Statements that are included with the filing of the divorce case.A personal financial statement is a similar document that is typically submitted to a bank or lending institution for the purpose of securing financing by representing an individual or couple’s financial position or net worth. In other words, it’s an asset and liability statement with estimates of value for each item akin to a balance sheet. Therefore, the couple’s or individual’s net worth is the sum of all assets, less the market value of all liabilities. For most liquid assets, such as cash/bank accounts, and investment/retirement accounts, the values can easily be obtained from the most recent account statement. Market value estimates for other assets, such as residential and personal real estate, can be obtained from recent appraisals, recent purchases, property tax assessments, and/or realtor websites. If the individual or couple owns a business, there generally is an estimate of value assigned to that asset. Since a business represents a non-liquid asset, the source of that value estimate can vary widely.Below, is a common example of a personal financial statement: Generally, the following items are excluded from a personal financial statement: Leased/Rented Items: These assets are excluded since they are not actually owned by the couple or individual. However, if the couple owns a piece of property that is rented to someone else, it would be included as an asset. Further, some personal financial statements include a summary of all forms of income and expenses, often expressed in the form of monthly or yearly amounts, if the personal financial statement is used to obtain credit or to show the couple’s or individual’s overall financial position in addition to their net worth. Personal Property: Refers to items such as furniture and household goods. Generally, the value of these items is not readily known and they are generally not considered for credit as they are unable to easily be sold. If there is any personal property with significant value, such as jewelry, cars, antiques or collectibles, their value might be included with an appraisal as the source of value. Family law attorneys will note that values for personal property are also generally not listed on divorce filings. Opinions on value can widely vary and often the true value to an individual may be rooted more in sentimental reasons than actual value. Unfortunately, the allocation of value to these items or the selection as to who ends up with each item can be one of the last and most challenging aspects to settling a case. Why Is a Personal Financial Statement Important?Family law attorneys, financial experts and business appraisers should ask for personal financial statements as part of their discovery or information request process. If one exists, how important is this document and how much weight should be given to it? Here’s where there are different views of the same document.One view of a personal financial statement is that no formal valuation process was used for business assets; so at best, it’s a thumb in the air, estimate of value of the business. Did the business owner complete the form without consulting any external data or did the business owner recently conduct a business valuation on the business or consult with a business appraiser? Chances are the spectrum of possibilities is generally closer to the former than the latter, but it might bear to ask questions regarding the circumstances of the personal financial statement.Another view is that the individual or couple submitting the personal financial statement is attesting to the accuracy and reliability of the financial figures contained in that document under penalty of perjury. Further, some would say the business owner is the most informed person regarding his/her business, its future growth opportunities, competition, and the impact of economic and industry factors on the business.With such considerations, how do family law attorneys and business appraisers use personal financial statements? Dismiss them and throw them out? Use them as a gold standard and forego a formal business valuation? As usual, the two adages “it depends” and the “truth lies somewhere in the middle” are both probably accurate in this situation. Personal financial statements can be helpful in some cases or they can lack third party independent analysis as to the value of the business assets in other cases.Do You Like Surprises?Attorneys and business appraisers do not want to be surprised by not knowing about information or documents that exist. Therefore, ask for personal financial statements. They should then be used as another data point along with the other indications of value that a business appraiser is considering, such as an asset value, income value, market value, recent transactions within the Company’s stock, etc.As with recent transactions within the Company’s stock or other market indications of value such as prior company transactions or contemplated sales/mergers, consideration should be given to the following factors: First, what is the timing of submission for the personal financial statement or data point to either the date of filing or date of trial. In other words, a recently submitted personal financial statement or data point is more relevant than one from five or ten years prior. Second, what was the context, relevance and motivation involved in the event? Why was the personal financial statement submitted or did the event represent an arm’s length transaction between two unrelated parties, as opposed to family members. Finally, do the values submitted in the personal financial statement or other data points caused by events represent elements of fair market value or do they reflect strategic value. A recent issue of Family Law Valuation and Forensic insights, covers the definitions of some of these standards of value in the overall context of understanding and defining the assignment.If the value indicated for the business by the personal financial statement falls within a reasonable range of the estimates from the other methodologies, it could probably be given more weight. Be cautious if the value indicated for the business by the personal financial statement is materially higher or lower than a reasonable range indicated by the other methodologies. In which case, it may require the business appraiser to ask more questions regarding the thought process behind the estimate in the personal financial statement or why conditions might have changed drastically from the submission to current day.ConclusionBottom line, ask for personal financial statements, review them, but consider them along with other factors and methodologies before concluding on a value for the business. These documents can be helpful in the divorce process, but don’t let them become the smoking gun by not asking for them or by not being aware that they exist.
Observations of New Tax Reform Law on Personal Goodwill in Family Law Cases
Observations of New Tax Reform Law on Personal Goodwill in Family Law Cases
Most professionals have seen countless reports of the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) on national news and been bombarded with requests to discuss the impact and various changes in the new law.  For the family law community, obvious takeaways are the change in the deductibility, or lack thereof, in alimony payments after 2018, elimination of personal exemptions, and expanded use of 529 plans to include secondary and lower-level education expenses.  Can a provision in the TCJA actually provide some insight into the presence of personal goodwill?Personal Goodwill Under Tennessee LawUnder Tennessee case law, personal goodwill is not a divisible marital asset.  As discussed in the seminal case Koch, the Court reiterates the findings and definition of personal goodwill provided by the Wisconsin Court of Appeals in Holbrook.  Holbrook describes personal goodwill as follows:“The concept of professional goodwill evanesces when one attempts to distinguish it from future earning capacity. Although a professional business's good reputation, which is essentially what its goodwill consists of, is certainly a thing of value, we do not believe that it bestows on those who have an ownership interest in the business, an actual, separate property interest. The reputation of a law firm or some other professional business is valuable to its individual owners to the extent that it assures continued substantial earnings in the future. It cannot be separately sold or pledged by the individual owners. The goodwill or reputation of such a business accrues to the benefit of the owners only through increased salary.”Section 199A of the TCJA and Personal GoodwillSo, what does personal goodwill have to do with the TCJA?  Upon closer examination of the provision for a Section 199A deduction, some individual’s trusts and estates could be eligible for a 20% deduction on certain pass-through income.  However, there are special limitations that apply to “specified service businesses.”  According to the TCJA, “specified service businesses” are defined as follows:A specified service trade or business means any trade or business involving the performance of services in the fields of health, law, accounting, actuarial sciences, performing arts, consulting, athletics, financial services, brokerage services, or any trade or business where the principal asset of such trade or business is the reputation or skill of one or more of its employees or owners, or which involves the performance of services that consist of investing and investment management trading, or dealing in securities, partnership interests, or commodities.Sound familiar?  Both the Holbrook and “Specified Service Businesses” definitions have some common elements including reputation and skill of the employee.  Under the TCJA, can tax returns now be used to assist attorneys and business appraisers to determine if the presence of personal goodwill exists?  In other words, if an individual fails to qualify for a Section 199A deduction because of the “specified service businesses” limitation, does that illustrate that personal goodwill is present?We think the Section 199A provision and a person’s deductibility or exclusion of this deduction can provide another data point for attorneys and appraisers in determining whether personal goodwill is present.  As with any thorough analysis of personal vs. enterprise goodwill, other important factors to consider are:Size of business and number of owners/practitionersPresence/lack of covenants not to competeDependence on owner(s) for selling feature with Company’s productsPresence/lack of ancillary incomeConclusionThe 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act may assist attorneys and appraisers in determining if personal goodwill is present via the Section 199A deduction.As we’ve pointed out, this deduction/exclusion is just one of several data points that should be considered. It should also be noted, that determining whether personal goodwill is present or not is only the first step to an analysis. If personal goodwill is present, the second step is to determine or assign value to the personal goodwill. In other words, a company’s value could be comprised of both enterprise and personal goodwill. A qualified business appraiser is necessary to make this determination and to provide an allocation of the goodwill.Originally published in Mercer Capital's Tennessee Family Law Newsletter, First Quarter 2018
Management Succession in Family Businesses
Management Succession in Family Businesses
Next Man (or Woman) Up?Perhaps no group is as proficient at the art of clichéd answers as football coaches. When confronted with the season-ending injury of a star player, the coach will inevitably stare stoically into the camera and solemnly declare “Next man up.” Whether the coach truly believes that the replacement player will be adequate, the cliché is intended to convey the idea that the coach has created such a “culture of success” that the “Process” (two of the newer clichés) that the team’s performance will be unaffected.From the perspective of family business, “Next Man or Woman Up” is one approach that the board of directors can take to management succession. Perhaps for some family businesses, management succession is as simple as pulling the next available candidate from the management depth chart. But we suspect that approach falls short for most family businesses. The combination of business growth, generational dynamics, and intra-family relationships that make family businesses unique precludes one-size-fits-all solutions to management succession. The primary questions associated with management succession are (1) Who will be the next leader of the business? and (2) How will the transition occur?First Question: Who?In our experience, many succession struggles are rooted in a failure to distinguish between being a good family member, a good employee, and a good business leader. The combination of native ability, education, character, social IQ, technical skills, and strategic savvy necessary to run a large business successfully is rare. The often-unspoken assumption that, since Dick has been a good son, or Jane a good daughter, that he or she is entitled to run the business when his or her turn comes up is unfair to the shareholders and employees of the business, not to mention Dick or Jane. While there are abundant examples of capable and energetic second, third or later generation family members that are great business leaders, it is a mistake to think that management of the business should simply be a matter of inheritance.The second common myth is that since Bill and Suzie have demonstrated themselves to be great employees (in whatever functional area) that they will, therefore, be great leaders. Being good at one’s job does not guarantee success as the leader of a family business. Further, as companies grow, new challenges may require a different set of leadership skills than were required in the prior generation. The skills and personality traits that made Uncle Phil the ideal leader of the business twenty-five years ago may be different from what Cousin Carlton needs to possess for success in the same role today.If the family has successfully distinguished family membership from family business management, it may be easier for the board to cast a wider net to find the best candidate to assume leadership of the business. Having an “outside” CEO does not mean the company has ceased to be a family business any more than hiring the first non-family employee on the shop floor did. Rather, it simply means that the directors have fulfilled their responsibilities to shareholders, employees and the community by seeking the right candidate for the job. Family members are by no means ruled out from consideration, but directors must acknowledge that the requisite skills may not reside in the family. And that’s okay. Having “professional” management may actually help family cohesion – and therefore business sustainability.In many cases, the combination of outside perspective and family loyalty that make a successful leader can be found among the family’s in-laws. Such “married-ins” are often sufficiently removed from family dynamics that they can see business issues for what they are, uncolored by what may be decades’ worth of emotional baggage. At the same time, their membership in the family may give a head-start in aligning economic incentives. In other words, “married-ins” will likely have plenty of skin in the game.Second Question: How?In the long run, management succession is inevitable: the proportion of managers that are eventually replaced is 100%. In the short run, however, there are generally three circumstances giving rise to management succession.1.     Planned Retirement: When the senior executive is approaching a natural retirement age, the directors should identify potential candidates to replace the retiring leader. With a multi-year planning horizon, the board can give due consideration to family candidates, develop mentoring opportunities for those candidates, and evaluate the performance of those candidates in areas of increasing responsibility. If it becomes apparent that no family candidates represent the right fit for the job, the board can extend the search to include existing non-family employees and non-employees.The appropriate retirement age for family business executives is a vexing issue. There simply is no one-size-fits-all for when a successful family business leader should step away. In our practice, we have seen examples of departures that – in hindsight – were premature, because the designated replacement was not yet ready to assume leadership. Perhaps more commonly, we see examples of businesses that plateau and stagnate because an aging senior executive refuses to move out of the corner office.2.     Performance-Driven Transition: We wrote in a previous post about the unique challenges associated with management accountability in family businesses. If the directors determine an existing senior executive is not generating acceptable results, it may be appropriate to seek a replacement. Family dynamics can make this an extremely difficult decision, and the prospect that such a decision may be in the best interest of the principal stakeholders (family shareholders, employees, local community, customers, suppliers, etc.) is one good reason to include qualified independent non-family members on the board. The independent directors can provide an objective assessment of managerial performance uncolored by internal family dynamics. If a performance-driven transition is necessary, the ultimate replacement should not be selected hastily; the long-run health of the business may be better served by a deliberate selection process, during which an experienced executive can manage the company on an interim basis.3.     Unexpected Vacancy: Finally, management succession may be forced upon the company because of an untimely illness, death, or other unforeseen circumstances. No business is immune to such circumstances, which underscores the need for directors to proactively think about management succession, even when the current leader is successful and expected to have a lengthy remaining tenure. When tragedy strikes, selecting the next leader should still be considered a measure-twice, cut-once project, with the long-term health of the organization taking precedence over the short-term desire to fill the position.As noted in the Harvard Business Review, recent research by Stephanie Querbach, Miriam Bird, and Nadine Kammerlander offers some interesting insights into best practices for management succession in family businesses. After studying over 500 management successions, they concluded the likelihood that successor-managers would be able to implement needed changes and improve the long-term sustainability of the family business was linked to three strategies: (1) limiting the power of the outgoing CEO subsequent to his or her retirement, (2) crafting a formal agreement regarding the how and when of power transfer, and (3) selecting a non-family successor. Of course, these observations reflect probabilities – they’re not absolute prescriptions for how every succession should occur. But they do provide a somewhat counter-intuitive perspective on the topic that family businesses would do well to consider.In the end, every management succession plan will be as unique as the family business it is designed for. But one constant for all family businesses is that now is the time to begin thinking and planning. “Next Man Up” may work in football, but your family business deserves better than that.
Fairness When the  Price May Not Feel “Right”
Fairness When the Price May Not Feel “Right”
Viewed from the prism of “fairness” in which a transaction is judged to be fair to shareholders from a financial point of view, many transactions are reasonable; some are very fair; and some are marginally fair. Transactions that are so lopsided in favor of one party should not occur absent a breach of corporate duties by directors (i.e., loyalty, care and good faith), bad advice, or other extenuating circumstances. Obtaining competent financial advice is one way a board exercises its duty of care in order to make an informed decision about a significant corporate transaction.The primary arbiter of fairness is the value of the consideration to be received or paid relative to indications of value derived from various valuation methodologies. However, the process followed by the board leading up to the transaction and other considerations, such as potential conflicts, are also important in the context of “entire” fairness.A tough fairness call can occur when a transaction price appears to be low relative to expectations based upon precedent transactions, recent trading history, management prognostications about a bright future, and/or when the value of the consideration to be received is subject to debate. The pending acquisition of commercial finance lender NewStar Financial, Inc. (“NewStar”; Nasdaq-NEWS) is an example where the acquisition price outwardly seems to be low, at least until other factors are considered.NewStar ExampleOn October 16, 2017, NewStar entered into a merger agreement with First Eagle Holdings, Inc. (“First Eagle”) and an asset purchase agreement with GSO Diamond Portfolio Holdco LLC (“GSO”). Under the merger agreement, NewStar will be acquired by First Eagle for (a) $11.44 per share cash; and (b) non-transferable contingent value rights (“CVR”) that are estimated to be worth about $1.00 per share if the transaction closes before year-end and $0.84 per share if the transaction closes in 2018. The CVR reflects the tax benefit associated with the sale of certain loans and investments at a discount to GSO for $2.37 billion.Also of note, the investment management affiliate of First Eagle is majority owned by an entity that is, in turn, partially owned by Corsair Capital LLC, which is the largest shareholder in NewStar with a 10.3% interest.Acquisition PriceAs shown in Figure 1, the acquisition price including all of the CVR equates to 83% of tangible book value (“TBV”), while the market premium is nominal. Although not relevant to the adequacy of the proposed pricing, NewStar went public in late 2006 at $17.00 per share then traded to around $20 per share in early 2007 before sliding to just about $1.00 per share in March 2009. “Feel” is a very subjective term; nonetheless the P/TBV multiple that is well below 100%, when combined with the nominal market premium, feels light. NewStar is not a troubled lender. Non-performing assets the past few years have been in the vicinity of 3% of loans, while net charge-offs have approximated 1% other than 2015 when losses were negligible. Further, the implied haircut applied to the loans and investments that will be acquired by GSO is modest.Transaction MultiplesWhile the P/TBV multiple for the transaction is modest, the P/E multiple is not at 26.5x (the latest twelve month (“LTM”) earnings) and 18.4x (the consensus 2018 estimate). The P/E could be described as full if NewStar were an average performing commercial bank and very full if it was a typical commercial finance company in which low teen P/Es are not unreasonable.What the P/TBV multiple versus the P/E multiple indirectly states is that NewStar has a low ROE, which has been less than 5% in recent years. The culprit is a highly competitive market for leveraged loans, a high cost of funds absent cheap bank deposit funding and perhaps excess capital. Nonetheless, management’s projections incorporated into the recently filed proxy statement project net income and ROE will double from $20 million/3% in the LTM period ended September 30 to $41 million/6% in 2020.In spite of a doubling of projected net income, the present value (assuming NewStar is worth 18.4x earnings in 2020 discounted to September 30 at a discount rate of 13%) is about $507 million, or about the same as the current transaction value to shareholders. Earnings forecasts are inherently uncertain, but one takeaway is that the P/TBV multiple does not appear so light in the context of the earnings forecast.Additional perspective on the transaction multiples is provided in Figure 2 in which NewStar’s P/TBV multiple based upon its public market price consistently has been below 100% the last several years while the P/E has been around 20x or higher due to weak earnings.Performance and TimingAs for the lack of premium there outwardly did not appear to be wide-spread expectation that a transaction was imminent (as was thought possible in 2013 when Bloomberg reported the company was shopping itself). There were no recent media reports; however, the shares fell by 17% between May 2–May 19 following a weak first quarter earnings report. The shares subsequently rebounded 19% between June 6–June 14. Both the down and then up moves were not accompanied by heavy volume. Trading during most of this time frame fell below the approximate 100 thousand daily average shares.Measured from June 14–October 17, the day after the announcement, NewStar’s shares rose about 10% compared to 8% for the SNL Specialty Finance Index. Measured from May 19, when the shares bottomed following the weak first quarter results the shares rose 34% compared to 12% for the index through October 17. The market premium relative to recent trading was negligible, but it is conceivable some premium was built into the shares for the possibility of a transaction given the sharp rebound during mid-June when negotiations were occurring.Other Support for the TransactionFurther support for the transaction can be found in the exhaustive process that led to the agreements as presented in the proxy statement. The proxy confirmed the Bloomberg story that the board moved to market the company in 2013. Although its investment bankers contacted 60 potential buyers, only two preliminary indications of value were received, in part because U.S. banking regulators tightened guidelines in 2013 related to leverage lending by commercial banks. The two indications were later withdrawn.During 2016 discussions were held with GSO regarding a going-private transaction, in addition to meetings with over 20 other parties to solicit their interest in a transaction. By the spring of 2017, consideration of a going-private transaction was terminated. Discussions then developed with First Eagle/GSO, Party A and Party B that eventually led to the announced transaction. Given the experience of trying to sell NewStar in 2013 and go private in 2016, the board elected not to broaden the marketing, calculating the most likely bidders would be alternative asset managers (vs. banks with a low cost of funding).Fairness considerations about the process were further strengthened through a “go-shop” provision in the merger agreement that provided for a 30-day “go-shop” period in which alternative offers could be solicited. If a superior offer emerged and the agreements with First Eagle and GSO were terminated a modest termination fee of $10 million (~2.5%) would be owed. Conversely, if NewStar terminates because GSO cannot close, then a $25 million termination fee will be owed to NewStar.The go-shop provision was activated, but to no avail. More than 50 parties were contacted and seven other unsolicited inquiries were received. NewStar entered into confidentiality agreements with 22 of the parties, but no acquisition proposals were received.Financial AdvisorsOther elements of the agreements that are notable for a fairness opinion include the use of two financial advisors, financing, and director Thornburgh, who was recused from the deliberations given his association with 10% shareholder Corsair, which holds, with Blackstone, a majority interest in First Eagle. Financing was not a condition to close on the part of the buyers because GSO secured $2.7 billion of debt and equity capital to finance the asset purchase. First Eagle will use excess funds from the asset purchase and existing available cash to fund the cash consideration to be paid at closing to NewStar shareholders. While two financial advisors cannot make an unfair deal fair, the use of two here perhaps gave the board additional insight that was needed given the four-year effort to sell, take the company private, or affect some other corporate action to increase value.The Lesson from the NewStar ExampleWhile the transaction price for NewStar seems low, there are other factors at play that bear consideration. When reviewing a transaction to determine if it is fair from a financial viewpoint, a financial advisor has to look at the entire transaction in context. Some shareholders will, of course, focus on one or two metrics to support a view that is counter to the board’s decision.ConclusionEvery transaction has its own nuances and raison d’etre whether the price “feels right” or not. Mercer Capital has significant experience helping boards sort through valuation, process and other issues to determine what is fair (or not) to shareholders from a financial point of view. Please call if we can help your board make an informed decision.Originally published in Mercer Capitals Portfolio Valuation: Private Equity Marks Newsletter: Fourth Quarter 2017
2018 Trends to Watch in the Banking Industry: Acquire or Be Acquired Conference Recap
2018 Trends to Watch in the Banking Industry: Acquire or Be Acquired Conference Recap
For those readers unable to escape the cold to attend Bank Director’s Acquire or Be Acquired (AOBA) conference in Scottsdale, AZ, we reflect on the major themes: bank M&A and scarcity, tax reform and valuation, and FinTech. For those unfamiliar with the three-day event, over 1,000 bankers, directors, and advisors gather to discuss pertinent industry issues.Bank M&A and ScarcityThere are fewer than 5,500 banks today, which is roughly half from only 10 years ago when we first attended AOBA. This scarcity was top-of-mind for several panelists who noted variations on the same theme: Scarcity matters to both buyers and sellers as the number of banks dwindles at a rate of 3-4% per annum.Unlike the 1990s and even the pre-crisis years when a seller could expect multiple offers, banks that sell today often have just one or two legitimate suitors. In our view, this means that sellers need to think more strategically about their valuation today and prospectively if their most logical suitor(s) is acquired. Even if the logical acquirer is unlikely to be acquired, board planning for some institutions should consider the potential to strike a (cash) deal with a credit union. For buyers, scarcity may translate into less desirable banks in targeted markets. If so, scarcity may mean greater emphasis on expansion through lift-outs from other banks, or even a push into non-traditional bank acquisitions/investments such as wealth management that could serve as a nucleus around which traditional banking services are bolted. One key question to watch: Will scarcity impact the pace of consolidation and the valuation of transactions? The short answer is seemingly “yes,” but rising acquisition valuations over the past couple of years correspond to the rising value of acquirers’ publicly traded shares.Tax Reform and ValuationThe banking sector was revalued higher in the public markets following the November 2016 elections, reflecting four attributes that would favor banks: regulatory reform, tax reform, faster GDP growth, and therefore, higher interest rates. While the impact (thus far) of regulatory reform and higher interest rates is limited, passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is a highly tangible benefit for banks and customers. With the stroke of a pen, ROE for many banks will rise to or above the institution’s cost of capital, returning to pre-financial crisis levels. However, tax reform is not a cure for strategic issues such as whether FinTech may radically disrupt the “core” in the deposit relationship between customers and their banks.One panelist summed up the debate by noting that management teams who achieve a 10-15% increase in earnings and ROE in 2018 from tax reform are not geniuses; rather, they are around to cash the check. The real winners, as it relates to tax reform, will be banks that leverage the enhanced cash flows to make optimal capital budgeting and strategic decisions. Bankers will have to allocate the additional earnings before some of it is competed away among investments in staff, technology and/or higher dividends, share repurchases and acquisitions. Perhaps in the ideal world, the incremental capital to be created would be used to support faster loan growth, but few at the conference indicated their institution had seen an increase in loan growth as a result of tax reform.A related theme that emerged in several sessions was the dichotomy in valuations between the “haves” and “have-nots” along key metrics such as size, profitability, core deposits, location, management team, and operating strategy/niche. This divergence could widen further following tax reform as the “haves” effectively take their higher cash flows and reinvest/deploy them more profitably than the “have-nots.” Ultimately, these strategic decisions and the trajectory of the bank’s performance will drive whether tax reform leads to sustainably higher bank valuations, likely varying case-by-case. For those interested, we discuss implications of tax reform for banks in greater detail here.FinTechWhile FinTech wasn’t even on the agenda when we first made the trip to Scottsdale for AOBA in the mid-2000s, it was all over this year’s schedule. One panelist humorously compared bankers’ reactions to FinTech with the “Seven Stages of Grief” noting that bankers seemed to have finally progressed beyond the early-stages of anger and denial toward the latter-stage of acceptance. Bankers are considering practical solutions to incorporate FinTech into their strategic plans. Sessions included panel discussions on the nuts and bolts of structuring FinTech partnerships and creating value through leveraging FinTech to enhance profitability. (For those interested in FinTech, learn more about our book on the topic.) Niches of FinTech that garnered particular attention included digital lending, payments (both consumer and business), blockchain, and artificial intelligence. AI in particular was top-of-mind, and one panel noted it as an area of FinTech offering strong potential for banks in the next few years.We look forward to discussing these three themes with clients in 2018 and monitoring how they evolve within the banking industry over the next few years. As always, Mercer Capital is available to discuss these trends as they relate to your bank – feel free to call or email.Originally published in Bank Watch, February 2018.
Diversification and the Family Business
Diversification and the Family Business
The following is an installment in our series “What Keeps Family Business Owners Awake at Night” Consider the following perspectives on diversification and risk:“Diversification is an established tenet of conservative investment.” – Legendary value investor Benjamin Graham“Diversification may preserve wealth, but concentration builds wealth.” – Legendary value investor Warren BuffettThe appropriate role of diversification in multi-generation family businesses is not always obvious. One of the most surprising attributes of many successful multi-generation family businesses is just how little the current business activities resemble those of 20, 30, or 40 years ago. In some cases, this is the product of natural evolution in the company’s target market or responses to changes in customer demand; in other cases, however, the changes represent deliberate attempts to diversify away from the legacy business.What is Diversification?Diversification is simply investing in multiple assets as a means of reducing risk. If one asset in the portfolio takes a big hit, it is likely that some other segment of the portfolio will perform well at the same time, thereby blunting the negative impact on the overall portfolio. The essence of diversification is (lack of) correlation, or co-movement in returns. Investing in multiple assets yields diversification benefits only if the assets behave differently. If the correlation between the assets is high, the diversification benefits will be negligible, while adding assets with low correlations results in a greater level of risk reduction.To illustrate, consider a family business deciding which of the following three investments to make: There is no unambiguously correct choice for which investment to make. While the capacity expansion project offers the highest expected return, the close correlation of the returns to the existing business indicates that the project will not reduce the risk – or variability of returns – of the company. At the other extreme, the warehouse acquisition has the lowest expected return, but because the returns on the warehouse are essentially uncorrelated to the existing business, the warehouse acquisition reduces the overall risk profile of the business. The correct choice, in this case, should be made with respect to the risk tolerances of the shareholders and how the investments fit the strategy of the business.Diversification to Whom?Business education is no less susceptible to the lure of fads and groupthink than any roving pack of middle schoolers. When I was being indoctrinated in the mid-90s, the catchphrase of the moment was “core competency.” If you stared at any organization long enough – or so the theory seemed to go – you were likely to find that it truly excelled at only a few things. Success was assured by focusing exclusively on these “core competencies” and outsourcing anything and everything else to someone who had a – you guessed it – “core competency” in those activities. Conglomerates were out and spin-offs were in. With every organization executing on only their core competencies, world peace and harmony would ensue. Or something like that.I don’t know what the status of “core competency” is in business schools today, but it does raise an interesting question for family businesses: whose perspective is most important in thinking about diversification? If the relevant perspective is that of the family business itself, the investment and distribution decisions will be made with a view to managing the absolute risk of the family business. If instead the relevant perspective is that of the shareholders, investment and distribution decisions are properly made with a view to how the family business contributes to the risk of the shareholders’ total wealth (family business plus other assets). Modern finance theory suggests that for public companies, the shareholder perspective should be what is relevant. Shareholders construct portfolios, and presumably the core competency of risk management resides with them. Corporate managers should therefore not attempt to diversify, because shareholders can do so more efficiently and inexpensively. In other words, corporate managers should stick to their core competencies and not worry about diversification.That’s all well and good for public companies, but for family businesses, the most critical underlying assumptions – ready liquidity and absolute shareholder freedom in constructing one’s portfolio – simply does not hold. Family business shares are illiquid and often constitute a large proportion of the shareholders’ total wealth. Further, as families mature, shareholder perspectives will inevitably diverge.For example, consider two cousins: Sam has devoted his career to managing a non-profit clinic for the underprivileged, and Dave has enjoyed an illustrious career with a white-shoe law firm. Both are 50 years old and both own 5% of the family business. Sam’s 5% ownership interest accounts for a significantly larger proportion of his total wealth than does Dave’s corresponding 5% ownership interest. As a result, they are likely to have very different perspectives on the role and value of diversification for the family business. Sam will be much more concerned with the absolute risk of the business, whereas Dave will be more interested in how the business contributes to the risk of his overall portfolio.We wrote in a previous post about the four basic “meanings” that a family business can have. What the business “means” to the family has significant implications for not only distribution and reinvestment policy, but also the role of diversification in the business. So how should family businesses think about diversification? When evaluating potential uses of capital, family business managers and directors should consider not just the expected return, but also the degree to which that return is correlated to the existing operations of the business. Depending on what the business “means” to the family, the potential for diversification benefits may take priority over absolute return. There are no right or wrong answers when it comes to risk tolerance, but there are tradeoffs that need to be acknowledged and communicated plainly. Family shareholders deserve to know not just the “what” but also the “why” for significant investment decisions.
Electronic Logging Devices
Electronic Logging Devices
Gone are the days of paper logbooks, because the future is here for truckers in the form of Electronic Logging Devices, or ELDs. But what are they, what do they do, and what will they be replacing?
Dividend Policy and the Meaning of Life (Or, At Least, Your Business)
Dividend Policy and the Meaning of Life (Or, At Least, Your Business)
The following is an installment in our series “What Keeps Family Business Owners Awake at Night” Our multi-generation family business clients ask us about dividend policy more often than any other topic. This should not be unexpected, since returns to family business shareholders come in only two forms: current income from distributions and capital appreciation. For many shareholders, capital appreciation is what makes them wealthy, but current income is what makes them feel wealthy. In other words, distributions are the most transparent expression of what the family business means to the family economically. Knowing what the business “means” to the family is essential for promoting positive shareholder engagement, family harmony, and sustainability. The business may “mean” different things to the family at different times (or, to different members of the family at the same time). In our experience, there are four broad “meanings” that a family business can have. These “meanings” are not mutually exclusive, but one will usually predominate at a given time. As discussed below, the “meaning” of the business has implications for the role of distributions.Meaning #1 - The family business is an economic growth engine for future generations. For some families, the business is perceived as a vehicle for increasing per capita family wealth over time. For these families, distributions are likely to take a backseat to reinvestment in the business needed to fuel the growth required to keep pace with the biological growth of the family.Meaning #2 - The family business is a store of value for the family. For other families, the business is perceived as a means of capital preservation. Amid the volatility of public equity markets, the family business serves as ballast for the family’s overall wealth. Distributions are generally modest for these families, with earnings retained, in part, to mitigate potential swings in value.Meaning #3 - The family business is a source of wealth accumulation. Alternatively, the business may be perceived as a mechanism for accumulating family wealth outside the business. In these cases, individual family members are expected to use distributions from the business to accumulate wealth through investments in marketable securities, real estate, or other operating businesses. Distributions are emphasized for these families, along with the (potentially unspoken) expectation that distributions will be used by the recipients to diversify away from, and limit dependence on, the family business.Meaning #4 - The family business is a source of lifestyle. Finally, the business may be perceived as maintaining the family’s lifestyle. Distributions are not expected to fund a life of idle leisure, but are relied upon by family shareholders to supplement income from careers and other sources for home and auto purchases, education expenses, weddings, travel, philanthropy, etc. These businesses typically have moderate reinvestment needs, and predictability of the dividend stream is often more important to shareholders than real (i.e., net of inflation) growth in the dividend. Continuation of the dividend is the primary measure the family uses to evaluate management’s performance. From a textbook perspective, distributions are treated as a residual: once attractive reinvestment opportunities have been exhausted, the remaining cash flow should be distributed to the shareholders. However, at a practical level, the different potential “meanings” assigned to the business by the family will, to some degree, circumscribe the distribution policy alternatives available to the directors. For example, eliminating distributions in favor of increased reinvestment is not a practical alternative for family businesses in the third or fourth categories above, regardless of how abundant attractive investment opportunities may be. The following table illustrates the relationship between “meaning” and distribution policy: The textbook perspective on distribution policy is valid, but can be adhered to only within the context of the “meaning” assigned to the family business. In contrast to public companies or those owned by private equity funds, “meaning” will generally trump dispassionate analysis of available investment opportunities. If family business leaders conclude that the “meaning” assigned to the business by the family does not align with the optimal distribution policy, the priority should be given to changing what the business “means” to the family. Once the change in “meaning” has been embraced by the family, the change in distribution policy will more naturally follow. A distribution policy describes how the family business determines distributions on a year-to-year basis. A consistent distribution policy helps family shareholders understand, predict, and evaluate distribution decisions made by the board of directors. Potential family business distribution policies can be arrayed on a spectrum that ranges from maximum shareholder certainty to maximum board discretion. Family shareholders should know what the company’s current distribution policy is. As evident from the preceding table, knowing the distribution policy does not necessarily mean that one will know the dividend for that year. However, a consistently-communicated and understandable distribution policy contributes greatly to developing positive shareholder engagement. So what should your family business’s distribution policy be? Answering that question requires looking inward and outward. Looking inward, what does the business “mean” to the family? Looking outward, are attractive investment opportunities abundant or scarce? Once the inward and outward perspectives are properly aligned, the distribution policy that is appropriate to the company can be determined by the board and communicated to shareholders. Through our family business advisory services practice, we work with successful families facing issues like these every day. Give us a call to discuss your needs in confidence.
Making Shareholder Communication a Family Business Priority
Making Shareholder Communication a Family Business Priority
The following is an installment in our series “What Keeps Family Business Owners Awake at Night” Communication determines the success of any relationship, and the relationships among shareholders of multi-generation family businesses are no exception.  In the early years of a family business, communication is generally informal (and continual), since the dining room often doubles as the board room.  As the business and family grow, the shareholder relationships become more complicated, and formal communication becomes more important. For a multi-generation family business, communication is not optional.  A failure to communicate is a communication failure.  When communication is lacking, the default assumption of shareholders – especially those not actively involved in the business – will be that management is hiding something.  Suspicion breeds discontent; prolonged discontent solidifies into rancor and, in some cases, litigation. In light of the dire consequences of poor communication, how can family business leaders develop effective and sustainable communication programs?  We suggest that public companies can provide a great template for multi-generation family businesses.  It is perhaps ironic that public companies – to whom their shareholder bases are largely anonymous – are typically more diligent in their shareholder communications than family businesses, whose shareholders are literally flesh and blood.  While public companies’ shareholder communications are legally mandated, forward-thinking public companies view the required shareholder communications not as regulatory requirements to be met, but as opportunities to tell their story in a compelling way. There are probably only a handful of family businesses for which shareholder communication needs to be as frequent and detailed as that required by the SEC.  The structure and discipline of SEC reporting is what needs to be emulated.  For family businesses, the goal is to communicate, not inundate.  At some point, too much information can simply turn into noise.  Family business leaders should tailor a shareholder communication program along the following dimensions:Frequency. Public companies communicate results quarterly.  Depending on the nature of the business and the desires of the shareholder base, less frequent communication may be appropriate for a family business.  The frequency of communication should correspond to the natural intervals over which (1) genuinely “new” information about the company’s results, competitive environment, and strategy is available, and (2) shareholders perceive that the most recent communication has become “stale”.  As a result, there is no one-size-fits-all frequency; what is most important is the discipline of a schedule.Level of detail. Public company reports are quite detailed.  Family business leaders should assess what level of detail is appropriate for shareholder communications.  If the goal is to communicate, the appropriate level of detail should be defined with reference to that which is necessary to tell the company’s story.  The detail needs to be presented to shareholders with sufficient supporting context regarding the company’s historical performance and conditions in the relevant industries and economy.  A dashboard approach that focuses on key metrics, as illustrated below, can be an effective tool for focusing attention on the measures that matter.Format/Access. The advent of accessible webcast and data room technology makes it much easier for family businesses to distribute sensitive financial information securely.  Use of such platforms also provides valuable feedback regarding what is working and what is not (since use of the platform by shareholders can be monitored).  Some families may have existing newsletters that provide a natural and existing touchpoint for communicating financial results.Emphasis. The goal of shareholder communication should be to help promote positive shareholder engagement.  To that end, the emphasis of the communication should not be simply the bare reporting of historical results, but should emphasize what the results mean for the business in terms of strategy and outlook for the future.  It is probably not possible to re-tell the company’s story too many times.  Shareholders that are not actively involved in the business will be able to internalize the company’s strategy only after repeated exposure.  What may seem like the annoying repetitions of a broken record to management will for shareholders be the re-exposure necessary to “own” the company’s story. Shareholder communication is an investment, but one that in our experience has an attractive return.  To get the most out of the investment, family business leaders must provide the necessary training and education to shareholders so that they will be able confidently to assess and interpret the information communicated.  With that foundation in place, a structured communication program can go a long way to ensuring that family shareholders are positively engaged with the business. Through our family business advisory services practice, we work with successful families facing issues like these every day. Give us a call to discuss your needs in confidence.
It’s Tax Time: Implications of Tax Reform for Banks
It’s Tax Time: Implications of Tax Reform for Banks
A Memphis establishment long has used the slogan, “It’s Tax Time (… Baby),” in their low budget television advertising. After listening to early fourth quarter earnings calls, banks – and especially their investors – appear to be embracing this slogan as well. Four investment theses undergirded the revaluation of bank stocks after the 2016 presidential election: regulatory reform, higher interest rates, faster economic growth, and tax reform. One year later, regulatory reform is stymied in Congress, and legislative efforts appear likely to yield limited benefits. Short-term rates have risen, but the benefit for many banks has been squashed by a flatter yield curve and competition for deposits. Economic growth has not yet translated into rising loan demand.Fortunately for bank stock valuations, the tax reform plank materialized in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (the “Act”).1 The Act has sweeping implications for banks, influencing more than their effective tax rates. This article explores these lesser known ramifications of the Act.2C Corporations & The ActIn 2017, the total effective tax rate on C corporation earnings – at the corporate level and, assuming a 100% dividend payout ratio, at the shareholder level – was 50.5%. Under the Act, this rate will decline to 39.8%, reflecting the new 21% corporate rate and no change in individual taxes on dividends. For a hypothetical bank currently facing the highest corporate tax rate, the Act will cause a 40% reduction in tax expense, a 22% increase in after-tax earnings, and a 269bp enhancement to return on equity (Table 1). The benefit reduces, however, for banks with lower effective tax rates resulting from, among other items, tax-exempt interest income. Continuing the example in Table 1, which assumed a 35% effective tax rate, Table 2 illustrates the effect on banks with 30%, 25%, and 20% effective tax rates. Since investors in bank stocks value after-tax earnings, not surprisingly banks with the highest effective 2016 tax rates experienced the greatest share price appreciation in 2017. Table 3 analyzes share price changes for publicly-traded banks with assets between $1 and $10 billion. ImplicationsThe preceding tax examples distill a nuanced subject into one number, namely an effective tax rate. The implications of the Act for banks, though, spread far beyond mathematical tax calculations. We classify the broader implications of the Act into the following categories:“Allocation” of Tax SavingsLendingMiscellaneousImplication #1: “Allocation” of Tax SavingsWe know for certain that the tax savings resulting from the Act will be allocated among three stakeholder groups – customers, employees, and shareholders.3 The allocation between these groups remains unknown, though.CustomersJamie Dimon had a succinct explication of the effect of the Act on customers:And just on the tax side, so these people understand, generally, yes, if you reduce the tax rates, all things being equal, to 20% or something, eventually, that increased return will be competed away.4The logic is straightforward. The after-tax return on lending and deposit-taking now has increased; higher after-tax returns attract competition; the new competitors then eliminate the higher after-tax returns. Rinse and repeat. One assumption underlying Mr. Dimon’s statement, though, is that prospective after-tax returns will exceed banks’ theoretical cost of capital. If not, loan and deposit pricing may not budge, relative to the former tax rate regime. Supporting the expectation that customers will benefit from the Act is the level of capital in the banking industry searching for lending opportunities.Renasant Corporation has noted already potential pressure on its net interest margin.Not sure [net interest margin expansion is] going to hold. We’ll need a quarter or 2 to see what competitive reaction is to say that we’ll have margin expansion. But we do think that margin at a minimum will be flat and would be variable upon competitive pressures around what’s down with the tax increase.5EmployeesAn early winner of tax reform was employees of numerous banks, who received one-time bonuses, higher compensation, and upgraded benefits packages. With falling unemployment rates, economists will debate whether employers would have made such compensation adjustments absent the Act. Nevertheless, the public nature of these announcements, with local newspapers often covering such promises, will create pressure on other banks to follow suit.Generally, bank compensation adjustments have emphasized entry level positions. An open question is whether such benefits will spread to more highly compensated positions, thereby placing more pressure on bank earnings. For example, consider a relationship manager who in 2017 netted the bank $100 thousand after considering the employee’s compensation and the cost of funding, servicing, and provisioning her portfolio. Assuming that customers do not capture the benefit, the officer’s portfolio suddenly generates after-tax net income of $122 thousand. The loan officer could well expect to capture a share of this benefit, or take her services to a competitor more amenable to splitting the benefit of tax reform.ShareholdersMr. Market clearly views shareholders as the biggest winner of tax reform, and we have no reason to doubt this – at least in the short-run. Worth watching is the form this capital return to shareholders takes. With bank stocks trading at healthy P/Es, even adjusted for tax reform, banks may hesitate to be significant buyers of their own stock. Instead, some public banks have suggested higher dividends are in the offing. Meanwhile, Signature Bank (New York), which has not paid dividends historically, indicated it may initiate a dividend in 2018. In the two days after the CEO’s announcement, Signature’s stock price climbed 8%.Table 4 compiles announced expenditures by certain banks on employees, philanthropy, and capital investments. Click to view Table 4.Some public market analysts have “allocated” 60% to 80% of the tax savings to shareholders, with the remainder flowing to other stakeholders. Time will tell, but banks will face pressure from numerous constituencies to share the benefits.Implication #2: LendingThe Act potentially affects loan volume with future possible effects on credit quality.VolumeLooked at most favorably, higher economic growth resulting from the Act, as well as accelerated capital expenditures due to the Act’s depreciation provisions, may provide a tailwind to loan growth. However, some headwinds exist too. Businesses may use their tax savings to pay down debt or fund investments with internal resources. The Act eliminates the deductibility of interest on home equity loans and lines of credit, potentially impairing their attractiveness to consumers. Last, the Act disqualifies non-real estate assets from obtaining favorable like-kind exchange treatment, potentially affecting some types of equipment finance.QualityWhile we do not expect the Act to cause any immediate negative effects on credit quality, certain provisions “reallocate” a business’ cash flow between the Treasury and other stakeholders (e.g., creditors) in certain circumstances:Net Operating Loss (“NOL”) Limitations. Tax policy existing prior to the Act allowed businesses to carry back net operating losses two years, which provided an element of countercyclicality in periods of economic stress. The Act eliminates the carryback provision. Further, businesses can apply only 80% of future NOLs to reduce future taxable earnings, down from 100% in 2017, thereby potentially pressuring a business’ cash flow as it recovers from losses. As a result, less cash flow may be available to service debt.Interest Deductibility Limitations. The Act caps the interest a business may deduct to 30% of EBITDA (through 2021) and EBIT (thereafter) for entities with revenue exceeding $25 million.6 Assuming a 5% interest rate, a business’ debt must exceed 6x EBITDA before triggering this provision. Several issues arise from this new limitation. First, community banks may have clients that manage their expenses to achieve a specified tax result, which could face disallowed interest payments. Second, in a stressed economic scenario, cash flow may be diverted to cover taxes on nondeductible interest payments, rather than to service bank debt.Real Estate Entities. The Act appears to provide relatively favorable treatment of real estate managers and investors. However, banks should be aware that the intersection of (a) the interest deductibility limitations and (b) the Act’s depreciation provisions may affect borrower cash flow. Entities engaged in a “real property trade or business” may opt out of the 30% interest deductibility limitation. However, such entities (a) must depreciate their assets over a longer period and (b) cannot claim 100% bonus depreciation for improvements to the interior of a commercial property. Banks should also prepare for reorganizations among business borrowers currently taxed as pass-through entities, especially in certain service businesses not qualifying for the 20% deduction described subsequently. From a tax planning standpoint, it may be advisable for some business clients to reorganize with certain activities conducted under a C corporation and others under a pass-through structure.Implication #3: Miscellaneous ConsiderationsAdditional considerations include:Effect on Tangible Book ValueTable 5 presents, for publicly traded banks with assets between $1 billion and $5 billion, their net deferred tax asset or liability positions as a percentage of tangible common equity. Table 5 also presents the number of banks reporting net DTAs or DTLs. From a valuation standpoint, we do not expect DTA write-downs to cause significant consternation among investors. If Citigroup’s $22 billion DTA revaluation did not scare investors, we doubt other banks will experience a significant negative reaction. In Citigroup’s case, the impairment has the salutary effect of boosting its future ROE, as Citigroup’s regulatory capital excluded a large portion of the DTAs anyway. Regulatory Capital7The Basel III capital regulations limit the inclusion of DTAs related to temporary differences in regulatory capital, but DTAs that could be realized through using NOL carrybacks are not subject to exclusion from regulatory capital. As noted previously, though, the Act eliminates NOL carrybacks. Therefore, certain banks may face disallowances (or greater disallowances) of portions of their DTAs when computing common equity Tier 1 regulatory capital.8Business InvestmentsAn emerging issue facing community banks is their relevance among technology savvy consumers and businesses. Via its “bonus” depreciation provisions, the Act provides tax-advantaged options for banks to address technological weaknesses. For qualifying assets – generally, assets other than real estate and, under the Act, even used assets – are eligible for 100% bonus depreciation through 2022. The bonus depreciation phases out to 0% for assets placed in service after 2026.9Mergers & AcquisitionsOur understanding is that the Act will not materially change the existing motivations for structuring a transaction as non-taxable or taxable. With banks accumulating capital at a faster pace given a reduced tax rate, it will be interesting to observe whether cash increases as a proportion of the overall consideration mix offered to sellers.Permanence of Tax ReformOne parting thought concerns the longevity of the recent tax reforms. The Act passed via reconciliation with no bipartisan support, unlike the Tax Reform Act of 1986. As exhibited recently by the CFPB, the regulatory winds can shift suddenly. Like the CFPB, is tax reform built on a foundation of sand?S Corporations & The ActAt the risk of exhausting our readership, we will detour briefly through the Act’s provisions affecting S corporations (§199A). While the Act’s authors purportedly intended to simplify the Code, the smattering of “lesser of the greater of” tests throughout §199A suggests that this goal went unfulfilled.Briefly, the Act provides that shareholders of S corporations can deduct 20% of their pro rata share of the entity’s Qualified Business Income (“QBI”), assuming that the entity is a Qualified Trade or Business (“QTB”) but not a Specified Service Trade or Business (“SSTB”).10 That is, shareholders of QTBs that are not SSTBs can deduct 20% of their pro rata share of the entity’s QBI.11 Simple.The 20% QBI deduction causes an S corporation’s prospective tax rate to fall to 33.4%, versus the 44.6% total rate applicable in 2017, thereby remaining below the comparable total C corporation tax rate (Table 6). S corporations should review closely the impact of the Act on their tax structure. The 2013 increase in the top marginal personal rate to 39.6% and the imposition of the Net Investment Income Tax on passive shareholders previously diminished the benefit of S corporation status. The Act implements a $10 thousand limit on the deductibility of state and local taxes, which may further diminish the remaining benefit of S corporation status. While we understand this limitation will not affect the deductibility of taxes paid by the S corporation itself (such as real estate taxes on its properties), it may reduce shareholders’ ability to deduct state-level taxes paid by a shareholder on his or her pro rata share of the S corporation’s earnings. S corporations also should evaluate their projected shareholder distributions, as S corporations distributing only sufficient amounts to cover shareholders’ tax liability may see fewer benefits from maintaining an S corporation election.12ConclusionFor banks, the provisions of the Act intertwine throughout their activities. Calculating the effect of a lower tax rate on a bank’s corporate tax liability represents a math exercise; predicting its effect on other constituencies is fraught with uncertainty.13 We look forward to discussing with clients how the far reaching provisions of the Act will affect their banks, clients, and the economy at large. It will be Tax Time for quite some time. As always, Mercer Capital is available to discuss the valuation implications of the Act.This article originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, January 2018.End NotesLest we be accused of imprecision, the Act’s formal name is “An act to provide for reconciliation pursuant to titles II and V of the concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2018.”Before proceeding, we include the de rigueur disclaimer for articles describing the Act that Mercer Capital does not provide tax advice and banks should consult with appropriate tax experts.We recognize that some of the tax savings may be invested in capital expenditures or community relations, but these expenditures ultimately are intended to benefit one of the three stakeholder groups identified previously.Transcript of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s Fourth Quarter 2016 earnings call.Transcript of Renasant Corporation’s Fourth Quarter 2017 earnings call.Floor plan financing is exempt from this provision.See also Federal Reserve, Supervisory & Regulatory Letter 18-2, January 18, 2018.Generally, DTAs are includible in regulatory capital up to a fixed percentage of common equity Tier 1 capital.In addition, §179 allows entities to expense the cost of certain assets.The §179 limit increases from $500 thousand in 2017 to $1 million in 2018.The Act also expands the definition of assets subject to §179 to include all leasehold improvements and certain building improvements.We recognize that the risk of exploding heads is acute with reference to §199A.Therefore, we avoided discussion of the limits on the 20% deduction relating to W-2 and other compensation, “qualified” property, and overall taxable income, as well as the various income thresholds that exist.Suffice to say, §199A is considerably more complex than we have described.It does not appear that banks are SSTBs (and, thus, banks are eligible for the 20% deduction), although the explanation is mind numbing.An SSTB is defined in §199A by reference to §1202(e)(3)(A) but not §1202(e)(3)(B).Existing §1202 provides an exclusion from gain on sale to holders of “qualified small business stock.”However, §1202(e)(3)(A) and §1202(e)(3)(B) disqualify certain businesses from using the QSB stock exclusion.Banks are specifically disqualified from the QSB stock sale exclusion under §1202(e)(3)(B).Since §199A’s definition of an SSTB does not specifically cite the businesses listed in §1202(e)(3)(B), such as banks, §199A has been interpreted to provide that banks are not SSTBs.Interested in more SSTB arcana?Architects and engineers are excluded specifically from the list of businesses ineligible for the 20% deduction, apparently speaking to the lobbying prowess of their trade groups (or their ability to build tangible things).We are not aware that the Act limits the increase in an S corporation shareholder’s tax basis arising from earnings not distributed to shareholders.However, the tax basis advantage of S corporation status typically is secondary to the immediate effect of an S corporation election on a shareholder’s current tax liability.To be fair, we should limit the “math exercise” comment to C corporations; the S corporation provisions in §199A undeniably are abstruse.
Tax Time Implications Tax Reform Banks
It’s Tax Time: Implications of Tax Reform for Banks
Fortunately for bank stock valuations, the tax reform plank materialized in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (the “Act”). The Act has sweeping implications for banks, influencing more than their effective tax rates. This article explores these lesser known ramifications of the Act.
How to Promote Positive Shareholder Engagement
How to Promote Positive Shareholder Engagement
The following is an installment in our series “What Keeps Family Business Owners Awake at Night” Based on discussions with family business leaders from across the country at the most recent Transitions conference, we wrote an article addressing themes among attendees, and we continue the discussion in this article. One challenge noted by leaders of multi-generation family businesses was how to promote positive shareholder engagement.Why is Shareholder Engagement Important for Family Businesses?As family businesses mature into the third and subsequent generations, it becomes less and less likely that extended family members will be both shareholders and active participants in the business. As families grow numerically, they tend to become more geographically dispersed. Lack of professional involvement in the business, combined with geographic separation, can result in family shareholders feeling disconnected and becoming disengaged from the family business. A successful multi-generation family business can promote healthy family cohesion, but when shareholders are not positively engaged, the business can quickly turn into a source of stress and family strife.Some families choose to eliminate the existence of disengaged shareholders by limiting share ownership to those members that are actively involved in the business. While this may be an appropriate solution for some families, it can have the unintended consequence of creating distinct classes of economic haves and have-nots within the family. When that occurs, the business quickly ceases to be a center of family unity.For most businesses, there simply is no necessary link between share ownership and active involvement in the company. If public companies can function well with non-employee owners, surely it is possible for family businesses to do so as well. But to do so, family businesses will need to be diligent to promote positive shareholder engagement.What are the Marks of an Engaged Shareholder?It might be tempting to label non-employee shareholders as “passive”, but we suspect that term does not do justice to the ideal relationship between the company and such shareholders. “Actively non-controlling” hits closer to the mark but doesn’t exactly trip off the tongue. If “passive” is not the ideal, the following characteristics can be used to identify positively engaged shareholders.An appreciation of what the business means to the family. Engaged shareholders know the history of the family business in its broad outline. Few things promote a sense of community like a shared story. A successful family business provides a narrative legacy that few families possess. Engaged shareholders embrace, extend, and re-tell the story of the family business.A willingness to participate. Full-time employment is not the only avenue for participating in the family business. Engaged shareholders understand their responsibility to be active participants in the groups that are appropriate to their skills, life stage, and interests, which may include serving as a director, sitting on an owners’ council, or participating in a family council.A willingness to listen. Positively-engaged non-employee shareholders recognize that there are issues affecting the family business, the industry, and the company’s customers and suppliers of which they are unaware. As a result, they are willing to listen to management, regardless of whether management consists primarily of non-family professionals or their second cousins.A willingness to develop informed opinions. A willingness to listen does not mean passive acceptance of everything management is communicating. A competent and confident management team recognizes that non-employee shareholders have expertise, experiences, and insights that members of management lack. Engaged shareholders acknowledge their responsibility to develop and share informed opinions, not just gut reactions or prejudices.A willingness to consider perspectives of other shareholder groups. Engaged shareholders do not seek the benefit of their own branch of the family tree to the detriment of the others. Multi-generation family businesses inevitably have distinct shareholder “clienteles” with unique sets of risk tolerances and return preferences. Privileging the perspective of a single shareholder clientele is a sure way to promote discord.A commitment to deal fairly. Fairness needs to run in both directions: non-employee shareholders should not be penalized for not working in the business, and shareholders that do work in the business need to be fully and fairly compensated for their efforts. Fairness also extends to distribution and redemption policy, both of which can be used to this disadvantage of one group within the family. Engaged shareholders are committed to fair dealing in transactions with the business and within the family.How to Develop an Engaged Shareholder Base?The family business leaders we spoke with at the conference were eager to share and learn best practices around promoting shareholder engagement. The “how” of shareholder engagement is closely related to the characteristics of engaged shareholders noted above.Develop mechanisms for appropriate involvement. Not everyone can have a seat at the board, but family and owner’s councils can be great ways to broaden opportunities and prepare family members for greater involvement.Emphasize the privilege/responsibility of being a shareholder. This will look different for every family, but a visible commitment to charitable contributions and service opportunities can be a powerful signal to the family that being a shareholder involves a stewardship that transcends simply receiving dividends.Basic financial education. Family members will have many different talents, interests, and competencies. Offering rudimentary financial education (i.e., how to read a financial statement, and understanding how distribution policy influences reinvestment) can empower the healthcare professionals, educators, and engineers in the family to develop and communicate informed opinions on family business matters.Actively solicit shareholder feedback. While it is true that the squeaky wheel gets the grease, it is often the un-squeaky wheels that have the most valuable insight. Periodic shareholder surveys can be an effective tool for promoting positive shareholder engagement.Demonstrate a commitment to fair dealing. Shareholders who are also managers in the business need to be wary of the tendency to pursue empire-building activities at the expense of providing appropriate returns on the shares in the family business. Most of the intra-family shareholder disputes we have seen (and we have witnessed too many) are ultimately traceable to shareholders that over time became disengaged from the business. Family business leaders who focus on positive shareholder engagement today can prevent a lot of grief tomorrow. Through our family business advisory services practice, we work with successful families facing issues like these every day. Give us a call to discuss your needs in confidence.
What Keeps Family Business Owners Awake at Night?
What Keeps Family Business Owners Awake at Night?
We recently attended the Transitions West conference hosted by Family Business Magazine. The event brought together representatives from nearly 100 family businesses of all sizes. Through the educational sessions and informal conversations during breaks, we came away with a better appreciation of the joys, stresses, privileges, and responsibilities which come with stewarding a multi-generation family business.While every family is unique, a few common themes and/or concerns stood out among the attendees we met:Shareholder engagement: How many of your second cousins do you know? As families grow into the fourth and fifth generations, common ownership of a successful business can serve as the glue that holds the family together. However, as the proportion of non-employee family shareholders increases, maintaining productive shareholder engagement grows more challenging.Communication: Effective communication is a critical for any relationship. Multi-generation family businesses are complex relationship webs. Identifying best practices for communicating effectively with family shareholders was a common objective for conference attendees.Distribution policy: Hands down, the most frequent topic of conversation was establishing a distribution policy that balances the lifestyle needs and aspirations of family shareholders with the needs of the business.Investing for growth: The flip-side of distribution policy is how to invest for growth. Can the family business keep up with the biological growth of the family? Is that a desirable goal? Regardless of the selected goal, family business leaders are concerned about identifying and executing investments to support the growth of the family business.Diversification: A striking number of the family businesses represented at the conference had diversified rather far afield from the legacy business of the founding generation. What are the marks of effective diversification for a family business?Management accountability: Evaluating managerial performance is never easy; adding kinship ties to the mix only makes things dicier. The family business leaders we spoke with were eager to develop and implement effective management accountability structures.Management succession: Whether it comes simply through age or as a result of poor performance, management succession is somewhere on the horizon for every family business. By our unofficial count, most of the family businesses in attendance were still led by a family member (often enough by so-called “married-ins”). A meaningful minority, however, had professional (i.e., non-family) management teams.Next Gen development: Rising generations are naturally more diffuse than prior generations, with regard to geography, interests, skill sets, and desires. Family leaders were interested in identifying appropriate pathways for next generation leaders to engage, learn, and grow in their contribution to, and impact upon, the family business.Generational transfer/estate planning: Attendees were keenly interested in tax-efficient techniques for transferring ownership of the family business to succeeding generations. While certainly important, there may be unanticipated pitfalls if estate and other taxes are the only factors considered when transferring wealth.Evaluating acquisition offers: There’s a definite selection bias at a family business conference: attendees are necessarily shareholders of family businesses that have not been sold. Even if the family does not plan to sell, credible acquisition offers at what appear to be attractive financial terms need to be assessed. Family business representatives were interested in learning how best to evaluate and respond to such offers.Share redemption/liquidity programs: There are many reasons family members may want to sell shares: desire for diversification, major life changes (such as divorce), funding for estate tax payments, starting a new business, or funding other major expenditures. What is the best way to provide liquidity to family shareholders on fair terms without sparking a run on the bank? Through our family business advisory services practice, we work with successful families facing issues like these every day. Give us a call to discuss your needs in confidence.
The Importance of Size, Profitability, and Asset Quality in Valuation
The Importance of Size, Profitability, and Asset Quality in Valuation
The question for most financial institutions is not if a valuation is necessary, but when it will be required. Valuation issues that may arise include merger and acquisition activity, an employee stock ownership plan, capital planning, litigation, or financial planning, among others. Thus, an understanding of some of drivers impacting your bank’s value is an important component in preparing for these eventualities.Data Analysis & Quantitative Factors Affecting Your Bank’s ValueDetermining the value of your bank is more complicated than simply taking a financial metric from one of your many financial reports and multiplying it by the relevant market multiple. However, examination of current and long term public pricing trends can shed some light on how certain quantitative factors may affect the value of your bank.To analyze trends, we focus our discussion on P/TBV ratios since this is one of the most commonly cited metrics for bankers. While all banks can be affected by overall macroeconomic trends like inflation rates, employment rates, the regulatory environment, and the like, we explore relative value in light of three factors we consider in all appraisals – size, profitability, and asset quality.SizeSize differentials generally encompass a range of underlying considerations regarding financial and market diversity. A larger asset base generally implies a broader economic reach and oftentimes a more diverse revenue stream which can help to mitigate harmful effects of unforeseen events that may adversely affect a certain geographic market or industry. Furthermore, larger banks tend to have access to more metropolitan markets which have better growth prospects relative to more rural markets. Figures 1 and 2 on the next page illustrate that, to a point, larger size typically plays a role in value, as measured by price / tangible book value multiples. The sweet spot for asset size seems to be between $5 and $10 billion in total assets. Banks in this category traded at the highest P/TBV multiple as of September 30, 2017 and have generally outperformed all other asset size groups over the long term.ProfitabilityTo examine how profitability affects the value of your bank, we compare median P/TBV multiples for four groups of banks segmented by return on average tangible equity (Figures 3 and 4 on the prior page). A bank’s return on equity can be measured as the product of the asset base’s profitability (or return on assets) and balance sheet leverage. Balancing these two inputs in order to maximize returns to shareholders is one goal of bank management. A bank’s return on equity measures how productively the bank invests its capital, and as one would expect, the banks with the highest returns on equity trade at the highest P/TBV multiple.Asset QualityInferior asset quality increases risk relative to companies with more stable asset quality and may limit future growth potential, both of which may negatively impact returns to shareholders. In addition, it makes sense that a bank with high levels of non-performing assets might trade below book value. Book value of the loans (or other non-performing assets) may not reflect the true market value of the assets given the potential for greater losses than those accounted for in the loan loss reserve and the negative impact on earning potential. Figure 5 illustrates how pricing is affected by higher levels of non-performing assets. As shown in Figure 6, P/TBV multiples plummeted at the start of the economic recession and have yet to recover to pre-crisis levels.ConclusionSize, profitability, and asset quality are factors to consider in your bank’s valuation. From an investor’s perspective, your bank’s worth is based on its potential for future shareholder returns. This, in turn, requires evaluating qualitative and quantitative factors bearing on the bank’s current performance, growth potential, and risk attributes.Mercer Capital offers comprehensive valuation services. Contact us to discuss your valuation needs in confidence.This article originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, November 2017.
ASU 2016-01: Recognition and Measurement  of Financial Assets and Liabilities
ASU 2016-01: Recognition and Measurement of Financial Assets and Liabilities
It’s Not CECL, But It Could Affect YouComplying with the revised disclosure requirements of ASU 2016-01 may necessitate that banks adopt new methodologies to determine the fair value of the bank’s loan portfolio. In listening to presenters at the recent AICPA National Conference on Banks & Savings Institutions, we gathered that some banks are taking their first fitful steps toward implementing the pending accounting rule governing credit impairment. Bankers should not lose sight, however, of another FASB pronouncement that becomes effective, for most banks, in the first quarter of 2018. Accounting Standards Update No. 2016-01 addresses the recognition and measurement of financial assets and liabilities.History of ASU 2016-01A long and winding history preceded the issuance of ASU 2016-01. In 2010, the FASB drafted a predecessor to ASU 2016-01, which required that financial statement issuers carry most financial instruments at fair value. As a result, assets and liabilities presently reported by banks at amortized cost, such as loans, would be marked periodically to fair value. This proposal was almost universally scorned, satisfying neither financial statement issuers nor investors. The FASB followed with a revised exposure draft in 2013, which maintained amortized cost as the measurement methodology for many financial instruments. Stakeholders objected, however, to a new framework in the 2013 exposure draft that linked the measurement method (fair value or amortized cost) to the nature of the investment and the issuer’s anticipated exit strategy. The FASB agreed with these concerns, eliminating this framework from the final rule on cost/benefit grounds.The final pronouncement issued in January 2016 generally maintains existing GAAP for debt instruments, including loans and debt securities. However, the standard modifies current GAAP for equity investments, generally requiring issuers to carry such investments at fair value. Restricted equity securities commonly held by banks, such as stock in the Federal Reserve or Federal Home Loan Bank, are excluded from the scope of ASU 2016-01; therefore, no change in accounting for these investments will occur. Excluding these restricted investments, community banks typically do not hold equity securities, and we do not discuss the accounting for equity investments in this article. Interested readers may wish to review a previous Mercer Capital article summarizing certain changes that ASU 2016-01 makes to equity investment accounting.Entry vs. Exit PricingWhile ASU 2016-01 maintains current accounting for debt instruments, it does contain several revisions to the fair value disclosures presented in financial statement footnotes. Originally issued via SFAS 107, these requirements were codified in ASC Topic 825, Financial Instruments. Although ASU 2016-01 makes several changes to the qualitative and quantitative disclosures that are beyond the scope of this article, the most significant revisions are as follows:“Public Business Entities” must report the fair value of financial instruments using an “exit” price concept, rather than an “entry” price notion.1Non-Public Business Entities are no longer required to present the fair value of financial instruments measured at amortized cost, such as loans, in their footnote disclosures. Current GAAP is ambiguous regarding whether the fair value of financial instruments measured at amortized cost should embrace an “entry” or “exit” price notion. According to the FASB, this has led to inconsistent disclosures between issuers holding otherwise similar financial instruments. Certain sections of ASC Topic 825, which carried over from SFAS 107, could be construed as permitting an “entry price” measurement. For example, existing GAAP provides an illustrative footnote disclosure describing an entity’s fair value estimate for loans receivable:The fair value of other types of loans is estimated by discounting the future cash flows using the current rates at which similar loans would be made to borrowers with similar credit ratings and for the same remaining maturities. [ASC 825-10-55-3, which is superseded by ASU 2016-01]By referencing “current rates” on “similar loans,” the guidance implicitly suggests an “entry” price notion, which represents the price paid to acquire an asset. Instead, ASC Topic 820, Fair Value Measurement, which was issued subsequent to SFAS 107, clearly defines fair value as an exit price; that is, the price that would be received upon selling an asset.Limitations of ALCO ModelsIn our experience, banks often use fair value estimates derived from their asset/liability management models in completing the fair value footnote disclosures for loan portfolios. Reliance on ALCO models suffers from several weaknesses when viewed from the perspective of achieving an exit price measurement:The discount rates applied in the ALCO model to the loan portfolio’s projected cash flows utilize current issuance rates on comparable loans. In certain market environments, the entry price for a loan portfolio developed using this methodology may not differ materially from its exit value. However, this approach becomes problematic when economic or financial market conditions suddenly change or the bank ceases underwriting certain loan types.The treatment of credit losses is not directly observable. Instead, the ALCO model implicitly assumes that the discount rates applied to the portfolio’s projected cash flow capture the inherent credit risk. However, this process does not necessarily correlate the fair value measurement to underlying credit risk. For example, a bank’s automobile loans underwritten in 2015 may be underperforming expectations at origination and also performing poorly compared with 2016 and 2017 originations. The fair value measurement should not apply the same discount rate to each vintage, given the disparate credit performance.Compliance GuidanceComplying with the revised disclosure requirements of ASU 2016-01, therefore, may necessitate that banks adopt new methodologies to determine the fair value of the bank’s loan portfolio. Mercer Capital has significant experience in determining the fair value of loan portfolios from which we offer the following guidance:ASC 820 emphasizes the use of valuation inputs derived from market transactions, but such transactions seldom occur among loan portfolios similar in nature to those held by community banks. If available, market data should take precedence.Absent market transactions, banks will rely on a discounted cash flow analysis to determine an exit price. To a limited extent, this is consistent with current ALCO modeling, but achieving an exit price requires additional considerations. While valuation should be tailored to each portfolio’s characteristics, certain common elements are embedded in Mercer Capital’s determinations of a loan portfolio’s exit value:Contractual cash flows. Consistent with current ALCO forecasting models, contractual cash flow estimates should be projected using a loan’s balance, interest rate, repricing characteristics, maturity, and borrower payment amounts.Loan Segmentation. To create homogeneous groups of loans for valuation purposes, the portfolio should be segmented based on criteria such as loan type and credit risk. Credit risk, as measured by metrics such as delinquency status or loan grade, can be manifest in the fair value analysis either through the credit loss forecast or the discount rate derivation.Prepayments. The contractual cash flows should be adjusted for potential prepayments, based on market estimates, as available, or the bank’s recent experience.Credit Losses. If not considered in the discount rate derivation, the projected cash flows should be adjusted for potential defaulted loans. In a fair value measurement this is a dynamic, forward-looking concept. It also is consistent with the notion in the Current Expected Credit Loss model—which underlies the recent FASB pronouncement regarding credit losses—that credit losses should be measured over the life of the loan.Discount Rate. The discount rate should be viewed from the perspective of a market participant, given current financial conditions and the nature of the cash flow forecast. Mercer Capital often triangulates between different discount rate approaches, depending on the strength of available data. For example, we may consider (a) a weighted average cost of funding the loan, (b) market yields on traded instruments bearing similar risk, or (c) recent offering rates in the market for similar credit exposures. Mercer Capital has developed fair value estimates for a wide variety of loan portfolios, on an exit price basis, ranging in size from under $100 million to over $1 billion, covering numerous lending niches, and possessing insignificant to severe asset quality deterioration. We have the resources, expertise, and experience to assist banks in complying with the new requirements in ASU 2016-01. This article originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, September 2017.End Note1 The definition of a “public business entity” is broader than the term may suggest. A registrant with the SEC is clearly a PBE, but the definition also includes issuers with securities “traded, listed, or quoted on an exchange or an over-the-counter market” (emphasis added). A number of banks “trade” on an over-the-counter market and therefore would appear to be deemed PBEs, even if they are not an SEC registrant. The following entities are also deemed PBEs:Entities filing Securities Act compliant financial reports with a banking regulator, rather than the SEC.Entities subject to law or regulation requiring such institutions to make publicly available GAAP financial statements, if there are no contractual restrictions on transfer of its securities.
What Kind of Value is Statutory Fair Value?: Kentucky Supreme Court Provides Guidance
What Kind of Value is Statutory Fair Value?: Kentucky Supreme Court Provides Guidance
In 2012, Chris Mercer, CEO, wrote about a recent appellate level case in Kentucky addressing the question of statutory fair value in Kentucky. Given several recent conversations with Kentucky clients, a revisit of that case is appropriate.For further information about statutory fair value, see this e-book by Chris Mercer.In the case, Shawnee Telecom Resources, Inc. v. Kathy Brown, the Kentucky Supreme Court provides a number of interesting insights into the evolution of statutory fair value in the various states, and, in this matter, in Kentucky.A Bit of Kentucky HistoryKentucky has had an interesting history regarding statutory fair value.  For many years, the leading case on the issue was a Court of Appeals decision in Ford v. Courier-Journal Job Printing Co., 639 S.W.2d 553 (Ky App. 1982).  This case allowed the application of a 25% marketability discount, and was the reigning precedent for nearly thirty years.The Ford case was overruled by another Court of Appeals decision in Brooks v. Brooks Furniture Mfgrs., Inc. 325 S.W.3d 904 (Ky. App. 2010).  The Court of Appeals explicitly overruled Ford with respect to the application of the marketability discount.  However, the Court of Appeals also rejected the use of the net asset value method.  Enter the Kentucky Supreme Court:The case before us presents squarely the broad issue of "fair value" and the more specific issues of the continuing viability of a marketability discount in a dissenters' rights appraisal action and the appropriateness of valuing closely held corporate stock under the net asset method.  Having thoroughly considered the statute [Subtitle 13 of the Kentucky Business Corporation act, Kentucky Revised Statutes (KRS) Chapter 271B] and its underlying purpose, we conclude that "fair value" is the shareholder's proportionate interest in the value of the company as a whole and as a going concern.  Any valuation method generally recognized in the business appraisal field, including the net asset and the capitalization of earnings methods employed in this case can be appropriate in valuing a given business....[emphasis added]Fair Value Is Enterprise ValueWhat is fascinating about this case is that the Kentucky Supreme Court seems not only to have understood the concepts underlying what we in the business appraisal profession call the levels of value, but also reflected that understanding in clearly written prose.  The levels of value charts are shown below: The traditional, three-level chart is shown on the left.  The chart that is generally recognized by most writers in the field now is the four-level chart on the right.  The levels at (or) above that of the marketable minority level are referred to as enterprise or entity levels of value.  Values at the enterprise levels are developed based on the expected cash flows, risks and expected growth of the enterprises, or as noted above, "the value of the company as a whole and as a going concern." The level below that of marketable minority is the nonmarketable minority level of value.  This is the shareholder level of value.  Value at this level is based on the expected cash flows, risks and expected growth pertaining to a particular shareholder's interest in the business.  Intuitively, most people recognize that the value of an illiquid minority interest in a business is most often worth less than that interest's proportionate share of enterprise value. The Kentucky Supreme Court understands the distinction, as is clear in the following: As for applying a marketability discount when valuing the dissenter's shares, we join the majority of jurisdictions which, as a matter of law, reject this shareholder-level discount because it is premised on fair market value principles which overlook the primary purpose of the dissenters' appraisal right -- the right to receive the value of their stock in the company as a going concern, not its value in a hypothetical sale to a corporate outsider.  However, generally recognized entity-level discounts, where justified by the evidence are appropriate because these are factors that affect the intrinsic value of the corporate entity as a whole. [emphasis added]Fair Value Is Not Shareholder Level ValueThis language regarding entity level valuation is consistent with the recent case I wrote about from the South Dakota Supreme Court.  The post was titled Statutory Fair Value (South Dakota): Customer Risk Consideration is not a Valuation Discount.  The point of that case was that it is inappropriate to lump entity-level adjustments into so-called valuation discounts like the minority interest discount or the marketability discount.The Kentucky Supreme Court reviewed a good bit of history pertaining to statutory fair value.  In so doing, a number of important points were made to clarify the meaning of fair value in Kentucky.Because an award of anything less than a fully proportionate share would have the effect of transferring a portion of the minority interest to the majority, and because it is the company being valued and not the minority shares themselves as a commodity, shareholder level discounts for lack of control or lack of marketability have also been widely disallowed. Fair value should be determined using the customary valuation concepts and techniques generally employed in the relevant securities and financial markets for similar businesses in the context of the transaction giving rise to appraisal (quoting Principles of Corporate Governance: Analysis and Recommendations § 7.22(a) (ALI 1994)) ...[W]e find a broad consensus among courts, commentators, and the drafters of the Model Act that "fair value" in this context is best understood, not as a hypothetical price at which the dissenting shareholder might sell his or her particular shares, but rather as the dissenter's proportionate interest in the company as a going concern. Because a hypothetical market price for the dissenter's particular shares as a commodity is thus not the value being sought, market adjustments to arrive at such a price, such as discounts for lack of control or lack of marketability, are inappropriate.An Amicus Brief was filed by the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce that suggested that dissenting shareholders might obtain a windfall in an appraisal proceeding if the typical valuation discounts were not applied.  The logic was that there would be a likelihood that the minority shareholder purchased his or her shares at a discounted level and that if they were bought out at undiscounted levels, there could be a windfall to them.  This logic was dismissed by the court.  Dissenters are not voluntary participants in transactions, and therefore need to be protected.The court also found that the net asset value method, appropriately considered in the value of an enterprise, was an appropriate valuation method.Entity-Level Discounts Are AppropriateThe Kentucky Supreme Court was specific that entity-level discounts, where supported by the evidence, are acceptable.  Shawnee argued that, if a marketability discount was not allowable at the shareholder level, one should be available at the entity level.  The court was wary of this argument, stating:We agree [that a marketability discount at the entity level could be applicable] but with the strong caveat, that any entity level discount must be based on particular facts and authority germane to the specific company being valued, i.e., there can be no automatic 15-25% discount of the whole entity's value simply because it is closely held and not publicly traded.The court listed a number of "recognized entity-level discounts" that could be appropriate in specific circumstances, including a key manager discount, a limited customer [see the South Dakota Supreme Court's analysis of this one] or supplier base discount, a built-in capital gains discount, a "portfolio" discount, a small size discount or a privately held company discount.The court referred to Shannon Pratt's book, Business Valuation Discounts and Premiums when discussing this list of discounts.Immediately following this list of entity-level discounts, the court emphasized the distinction between entity-level and shareholder-level discounts, which I quote because of the importance of the discussion:As noted above, the distinction between entity-level and shareholder-level discounts is recognized in the business valuation literature, Shannon P. Pratt, Business Valuation Discounts and Premiums, p. 3 (2001) [linked above], and was referred to in Cavalier, where the Court observed that shareholder-level discounts, such as those for lack of control and lack of marketability, tend to defeat the protective purpose of the appraisal remedy by transferring a portion of the dissenter's interest in the company to the majority.  Entity-level discounts, on the other hand, take into account those factors, such as a company's reliance on a key manager, that affect the value of the company as a whole..."Cavalier authorized corporate level discounting as a means of establishing the intrinsic value of the enterprise."  Where such entity-level adjustments are proper, they should be incorporated into the valuation technique employed, and the appraiser should be able to cite the relevant facts and authority for making the adjustment. (emphasis added)The Court then discussed the Delaware Chancery Court's rejection of "the sort of marketability discount that the court applied."  Borruso v. Communications Telesystems International, 753 A.2d 451 (Del. Ch. 1999).  While holding that an appraiser might properly support a discount based on privately held companies selling at lower multiples than publicly traded companies, the court found that there was insufficient evidence to support the discount applied.  The court cited, among other things, my article "Should Marketability Discounts Be Applied to Controlling Interests in Companies?" in the June 1994 edition of Business Valuation Review [subscription required.  Email me if you'd like a copy].As if to hammer the point home, the Court stated:On remand, Shawnee is free to present evidence tending to show that its going concern value is lessened by such factors as its small size and its private nature, but otherwise it is not entitled to a discount based simply on the generally perceived lack of marketability of closely held corporate shares.ConclusionThe conclusion of Shawnee is instructive:In sum, we agree with the Court of Appeals that Ford [applying a marketability discount] has outlived its usefulness and does not provide a suitable interpretation of the appraisal remedy currently available under KRS Subchapter 271B.13.  under that subchapter, a properly dissenting shareholder is entitled to the "fair value" of his or her shares, which is the shareholder's proportionate interest in the value of the company as a whole as a going concern.  Going concern value is to be determined in accord with the concepts and techniques generally recognized and employed in the business and financial community.  Although the parties may, and indeed are encouraged to, offer estimates of value derived by more than one technique, the trial court is not obliged to assign a weight to or to average the various estimates, but may combine or choose among them as it believes appropriate given the evidence.  If the particular technique allows for them, adequately supported entity-level adjustments may be appropriate to reflect aspects of the company bearing positively or negatively on its value.  Once the entire company has been valued as a going concern, however, by applying an appraisal technique that passes judicial muster, the dissenting shareholder's interest may not be discounted to reflect either a lack of control or a lack of marketability....A careful reading of this case indicates that the Kentucky Supreme Court warns courts (and appraisers) that shareholder-level discounts disguised as entity-level adjustments are not appropriate.In terms of the levels of value chart above, fair value in Kentucky could be interpreted to be the functional equivalent of fair market value at the entity-, or enterprise level.  What is not clear, however, is whether the Kentucky Supreme Court would embrace valuation in dissenters' rights matters at the strategic control level.  The case addressed protections afforded by the Kentucky statute to dissenting, generally minority, shareholders. There was no discussion of taking into account any potential synergies that might occur in a strategic or synergistic sale of the business.Perhaps, the answer lies in the language used in a conclusory statement noted above:... we conclude that "fair value" is the shareholder's proportionate interest in the value of the Company as a whole and as a going concern.If a company is valued "as a whole" and as a "going concern," it may be difficult to argue that the implied combination with another entity in a strategic valuation is appropriate.The Court is clear that there can be no downward bias from entity-level valuation to the shareholder level of valuation in Shawnee.  However, the issue of any upward bias in statutory fair value determinations was not addressed in the case.Originally published on ChrisMercer.net | October 19, 2017
Video: Corporate Finance Basics for Directors and Shareholders
Video: Corporate Finance Basics for Directors and Shareholders
Below is the transcript of the above video, Corporate Finance Basics for Directors and Shareholders. In this video, Travis W. Harms, CFA, CPA/ABV, senior vice president of Mercer Capital, offers a short, yet thorough, overview of corporate finance fundamentals for closely held and family business directors and shareholders. Hi, my name is Travis Harms, and I lead Mercer Capital’s Family Business Advisory practice. I welcome and thank you for taking a few minutes to listen to our discussion, “Corporate Finance Basics for Directors and Shareholders.” Corporate finance does not need to be a mystery. In this short presentation, I will give you the tools and vocabulary to help you think about some of the most important long-term decisions facing your company. To do this, we review the foundational concepts of finance, identify the three key questions of corporate finance, and then leverage those three questions to help think strategically about the future of your company. Let’s start with the fundamentals of finance: return and risk. Return measures the reward for making an investment.  Investment returns come in two different forms: the first, distribution yield, is a measure of the annual distributions generated by an investment. The second, capital appreciation, measures the change in the value of an investment over time.  Total return is the sum of these two components. This is important because two investments may generate the same total return, although in very different forms.  Some investments, like bonds, emphasize current income, while others, like venture capital, are all about capital appreciation.  Many investments promise a mix of current income and future upside. The most basic law of corporate finance is that return follows risk. The above chart compares the expected return required by investors and the risk of different investments.  Since investment markets are generally efficient, higher returns are available only by accepting greater risk. But what is risk? Simply put, risk is the fact that future investment outcomes are unknown.  The wider the distribution of potential outcomes, the greater the risk. While both investments represented above are risky, the dispersion of outcomes for the investment on the right is wider than that on the left, so the investment on the right is riskier.  Because it is riskier, it will have a higher expected return.  Now, whether that higher return actually materializes is unknown when the investment is made – that’s what makes it risky. For a particular company, the expected return is referred to as the company’s cost of capital.  From a corporate finance perspective, the company stands between investors (who are potential providers of capital) and investment projects (which are potential uses of the capital provided by investors).  The cost of capital is the price paid to attract capital from investors to fund investment projects. When evaluating potential investment projects, corporate managers use the cost of capital as the hurdle rate to measure the attractiveness of the project. Next, we will move on to the three essential questions of corporate finance. Corporate managers and directors should always be thinking about three fundamental corporate finance questions: First, what is the most efficient mix of capital? This the capital structure question – what is the mix of debt and equity capital that minimizes the company’s overall cost of capital?Second, what projects merit investment? This is the capital budgeting question – how does the company identify investment projects that will deliver returns in excess of the hurdle rate?And third, what mix of returns do shareholders desire? This is the distribution policy question – what is the appropriate mix of current income and future upside for the company’s investors? Let’s start with the first question: what is the most efficient mix of capital? You can think of the company’s assets as a portfolio of individual capital projects – that is the left side of the balance sheet.  The right side of the balance sheet tells us how the company has paid for those investments.  The only two funding options are debt and equity.  Because debt holders are promised a contractual return and have a priority claim on the assets and cash flows of the company, debt is less expensive than equity, which has only a residual claim on the company. You can think of the company’s assets as a portfolio of individual capital projects – that is the left side of the balance sheet.  The right side of the balance sheet tells us how the company has paid for those investments.  The only two funding options are debt and equity.  Because debt holders are promised a contractual return and have a priority claim on the assets and cash flows of the company, debt is less expensive than equity, which has only a residual claim on the company. If debt is cheaper than equity, you might assume that a company could reduce its cost of capital by simply issuing more and more debt.  That is not the case, however.  As the company uses more debt, the risk of both the debt and the equity increase.  And, as we said earlier, greater risk will cause both debt and equity investors to demand higher returns. Eventually, because the cost of both components is increasing, the overall blended (or weighted average) cost of capital increases with increasing reliance on debt.  The goal of capital structure analysis is to identify the optimal capital structure, or the mix of debt and equity that minimizes the company’s cost of capital. Now let’s move on to the second question: what investment projects should the company devote capital to?  At the strategic level, management’s job is to survey the landscape of potential investment projects, choosing those that are strategically compelling and financially favorable. From a financial perspective, a potential investment project is attractive if the return from the expected cash flows meets or exceeds the hurdle rate, which is the cost of capital. The appropriate pace of investment for a company is therefore related to the availability of attractive investment projects. If attractive investment projects are abundant, the company should reinvest earnings into new projects, and, if yet more attractive projects are available, borrow money and/or issue new equity to fund the investment.  If attractive investment projects are scarce, however, the company should return capital to investors through debt repayment, distribution of earnings, or share repurchase.  We can now begin to see how the three questions are related to one another.  Capital structure decisions are always made relative to the need for investment capital. This inter-relationship is illustrated above within the context of the two components of total return we discussed earlier.  Distribution yield provides a current return to shareholders from cash flow not reinvested in the business, while the cumulative impact of reinvested cash flows is manifest in the capital appreciation component of total return. This leads us to the final corporate finance question, which relates to distribution policy: what mix of returns do shareholders desire? While the operating performance of the business ultimately determines total return, the board can tailor the components of that return to fit shareholder preferences better. We’ve primarily been looking through the rearview mirror to assess what the company has done in the past; now it’s time to look through the windshield and think prospectively about capital structure, capital budgeting, and distribution policy going forward. First, capital structure.  In the long-run, the optimal capital structure will balance the cost of funds, flexibility, availability, and the risk preferences of the shareholders.  Now, that last factor – shareholder preferences – should not be overlooked.  Family businesses should not be managed for some abstract textbook shareholder, but rather for the actual family members that own the business. For example, while an under-leveraged capital structure reduces potential return on equity, it also reduces the risk of bankruptcy.  Some shareholders may view this tradeoff favorably even if it can be demonstrated to be “sub-optimal” from a textbook standpoint. Second, capital budgeting.  The attractiveness of investment opportunities should be evaluated with reference to future – and not past – returns.  Beyond the threshold question of whether such opportunities are in fact available, managers and directors should also consider financial and management constraints under which the company is operating and the desire of shareholders for diversification. Since family business shareholders lack ready liquidity for their shares, they may have a greater desire to diversify their investment holdings away from the family business.  In other words, they may favor foregoing some otherwise attractive investment opportunities in order to increase distributions that would help shareholders diversify. Third, distribution policy.  The appropriate form and amount of distributions should reflect shareholder preferences within the context of capital budgeting and capital structure decisions.  Perhaps most importantly, a clearly communicated distribution policy enhances predictability for shareholders, and shareholders like predictability. Family business shareholders should know which of the four basic options describes their company’s distribution policy. Finally, to recap, each of the three questions relates to one another. The company’s capital structure influences the cost of capital, which serves as the hurdle rate in capital budgeting decisions.  The availability of attractive investment projects, in turn, determines whether earnings should be retained or distributed.  Lastly, distribution policy affects, and is affected by, the cost and availability of marginal financing sources. For a deeper dive into some of the topics we talked about, we have several whitepapers and other resources that you can download from our website. The good news is that you do not have to have an advanced degree in finance to be an informed director or shareholder.  With the concepts from this presentation, you can make relevant and meaningful contributions to your company’s strategic financial decisions.  In fact, we suspect that a roomful of finance “experts” can actually be an obstacle to the sort of multi-disciplinary, collaborative decision-making that promotes the long-term health and sustainability of the company.  Our family business advisory practice gives directors and shareholders a vocabulary and conceptual framework for thinking about and making strategic corporate finance decisions. Again, my name is Travis Harms and I thank you for listening. If you’d like to continue the discussion further or have any questions about how we may help you, please give us a call. Travis W. Harms, CFA, CPA/ABV(901) 322-9760harmst@mercercapital.com
Emerging Community Bank M&A Trends in 2017
Emerging Community Bank M&A Trends in 2017
As summer came to an end, the U.S. was treated with a historic event as the first total solar eclipse crossed the country since 1918. The timing of the event had social media and news outlets buzzing in a traditionally sleepy news month. For many, the event exceeded all expectations; for others, it was a dud that didn’t live up to the hype. My personal experience was a bit of both. The minutes of darkened skies were definitely memorable, but things returned to normal quickly as the sun shone brightly only minutes after.Traditional M&A TrendsCommunity bank M&A trends also seem mixed. Rising regulatory burdens, weak margins from a historically low interest rate environment and heightened competition have crimped ROEs for years. Many pundits have predicted a rapid wave of consolidation and the demise of community banks in the years since the financial crisis. However, the pace of consolidation the last few years is consistent with the past three decades in which roughly 3-4% of the industry’s banks are absorbed through M&A yearly. The result is many fewer banks—5,787 at June 30 compared to about 15,000 in the mid-1980s when meaningful industry consolidation got underway.Somewhat surprisingly, the spike in bank stock prices following the November 2016 national elections did not cause M&A to accelerate. As would be expected, acquisition multiples increased in 2017 because publicly traded acquirers could “pay-up” with appreciated shares. As seen in the table on the next page, the median P/E and P/TBV multiples and the median core deposit premium increased for the latest twelve months (LTM) ended July 31, 2017 compared to the year ago LTM period. The ability of buyers—at least the publicly traded ones—to more easily meet sellers’ price expectations seemingly would lead more banks to sell. However, that has not happened as the pace of consolidation declined slightly to 132 transactions in the most recent LTM period compared to 140 in the year ago LTM time frame.FinTech’s Impact on M&AAnother emerging M&A trend is the presence of non-traditional bank acquirers, which include private investor groups, non-bank specialty lenders, and credit unions. While a FinTech company has not yet announced an acquisition of a U.S. bank this year, several FinTechs have announced they are applying for a bank charter (SoFi, VaroMoney), and in the U.K., Tandem has agreed to acquire Harrods Bank.So far, FinTech acquisitions of banks have been limited to a few acquisitions by online brokers and Green Dot Corporation’s acquisition of a bank in 2011. While FinTech companies have yet to emerge as active buyers, there have been some predictions that could change if regulatory hurdles can be navigated. Some FinTech companies are well-funded or have access to additional funding that could be tapped for a bank acquisition. In addition, an overlay of enhancing financial inclusion for the under-banked could mean bank transactions may not be as far-fetched as some may think.Beyond serving as potential acquirers, FinTech continues to emerge as an important piece of the community banking puzzle of how to engage customers through digital channels as the costly branch banking model sees usage decline year-after-year. Many FinTechs are eager to partner with banks to scale their operations for greater profitability, thereby better positioning themselves for a successful exit down the road.Consistent with this trend, we have also seen some acquirers (and analysts) comment on FinTech as a benefit of a transaction, as opposed to (or at least in addition to) the historical focus on geographic location, credit quality, asset size, and profitability. We will be watching to see if FinTech initiatives, whether internally developed or acquired, become a bigger driving force in bank M&A. If so, acquisitions of FinTech companies by traditional banks may increase (as discussed more fully in this article).As these trends grow in importance, buyers and sellers will have to grapple with unique valuation and transaction issues that require each to fully understand the value of the seller and the buyer, assuming a portion of the consideration consists of the buyer’s shares. Whether that buyer includes a traditional bank whose stock is private or a non-bank buyer, such as a specialty lender or FinTech company, we have significant valuation and transaction expertise to help your bank understand the deal landscape and the strategic options available to it.If we can be of assistance, give us a call to discuss your needs in confidence.This article originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, August 2017. 
Fairness Opinions Do Not Address Regrets
Fairness Opinions Do Not Address Regrets
Sometimes deals can go horribly wrong between the signing of a merger agreement and closing. Buyers can fail to obtain financing that seemed assured; sellers can see their financial position materially deteriorate; and a host of other “bad” things can occur. Most of these lapses will be covered in the merger agreement through reps and warranties, conditions to close, and if necessary, the nuclear trigger that can be pushed if negotiations do not produce a resolution: the material adverse event clause (MAEC). And MAEC = litigation.Bank of America’s (BAC) 2008 acquisition of Countrywide Financial Corporation will probably be remembered as one of the worst transactions in U.S. history, given the losses and massive fines that were attributed to Countrywide. BAC management regretted the follow-on acquisition of Merrill Lynch so much that the government held CEO Ken Lewis’ feet to the fire when he threatened to trigger MAEC in late 2008 when large swaths of Merrill’s assets were subjected to draconian losses. BAC shareholders bore the losses and were diluted via vast amounts of common equity that were subsequently raised at very low prices.Another less well-known situation from the early crisis years is the acquisition of Charlotte-based Frist Charter Corporation (FCTR) by Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB). The transaction was announced on August 16, 2007 and consummated on June 6, 2008. The deal called for FITB to pay $1.1 billion for FCTR, consisting 30% of cash and 70% FITB shares with the exchange ratio to be set based upon the five day closing price for FITB the day before the effective date. At the time of the announcement FITB expected to issue ~20 million common shares; however, 45 million shares were issued because FITB shares fell from the high $30s immediately before the merger agreement was signed to the high teens when it was consummated. (The shares would fall to a closing low of $1.03 per share on February 20, 2009; the shares closed at $25.93 per share on July 14, 2017.) The additional shares were material because FITB then had about 535 million shares outstanding. Eagerness to get a deal in the Carolinas may have caused FITB and its advisors to agree to a fixed price / floating exchange ratio structure without any downside protection.A more recent example of a deal that may entail both buyer and seller regrets is Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce’s (CIBC) now closed acquisition of Chicago-based Private Bancorp Inc. (PVTB). A more detailed account of the history of the transaction can be found here. The gist of the transaction is that PVTB entered into an agreement to be acquired by CIBC on June 29, 2016 for 0.3657 CIBC shares that trade in Toronto (C$) and New York (US$), and $18.80 per share of cash. At announcement the transaction was valued at $3.7 billion, or $46.20 per share. As U.S. bank stocks rapidly appreciated after the November 8 national elections, institutional investors began to express dismay because Canadian stocks did not advance. In early December, proxy firms recommended shareholders vote against the deal. A mid-December shareholder vote was then postponed.CIBC subsequently upped the consideration two times. On March 31, 2017, it proposed to acquire PVTB for 0.4176 CIBC shares and $24.20 per share of cash. On May 4, CIBC further increased the cash consideration by $3.00 to $27.20 per share because its shares had trended lower since March as concerns intensified about the health of Canada’s housing market. On May 12, shareholders representing 66% of PVTB’s shares approved the acquisition. Figure 1 highlights the trouble with the deal from PVTB shareholders’ perspective. While the original deal entailed a modest premium, the performance of CIBC’s shares and the sizable cash consideration resulted in little change in the deal value based upon the original terms. On March 30 the deal equivalent price for PVTB was $50.10 per share, while the market price was $59.00 per share. The following day when PVTB upped the consideration the offer was valued at $60.11 per share; however, the revised offer would have been worth nearly $69 per share had CIBC’s shares tracked the SNL U.S. Bank Index since the agreement was announced on June 29. On May 11 immediately before the shareholder vote the additional $3.00 per share of cash offset the reduction in CIBC’s share price such that transaction was worth ~$60 per share, while the “yes-but” value was over $71 per share had CIBC’s shares tracked the U.S. index since late June. Fairness opinions do not cover regret, but there are some interesting issues raised when evaluating fairness from a financial point of view of both PVTB and CIBC shareholders. (Note: Goldman Sachs & Co. and Sandler O’Neill & Partners provided fairness opinions to PVTB as of June 29 and March 30. The registration statement does not disclose if J.P. Morgan Securities provided a fairness opinion as the lead financial advisor to CIBC. The value of the transaction on March 30 when the offer was upped the second time was $4.9 billion compared to CIBC’s then market cap of US$34 billion.)Fairness is a Relative ConceptSome transactions are not fair, some are reasonable, and others are very fair. The qualitative aspect of fairness is not expressed in the opinion itself, but the financial advisor conveys his or her view to management and a board that is considering a significant transaction. When the PVTB deal was announced on June 29, it equated to $46.35 per share, which represented premiums of 29% and 14% to the prior day close and 20-day average closing price. The price/tangible book value multiple was 220%, while the P/E based upon the then 2016 consensus estimate was 18.4x. As the world existed prior to November 8, the multiples appeared reasonable but not spectacular.Fairness Does not Consider 20-20 Hindsight VisionFairness opinions are qualified based upon prevailing economic conditions; forecasts provided by management and the like and are issued as of a specific date. The opinion is not explicitly forward looking, while merger agreements today rarely require an affirmation of the initial opinion immediately prior to closing as a condition to close. That is understandable in the context that the parties cut a deal that was deemed fair to shareholders from a financial point of view when signed. In the case of PVTB, the future operating environment (allegedly) changed with the outcome of the national election. Banks were seen as the industry that would benefit from a combination of lower corporate tax rates, less regulation, faster economic growth, and higher rates as part of the “reflation trade.” A reasonable deal became not so reasonable if not regrettable when the post November 8 narrative excluded Canadian banks. Time will tell if PVTB’s earning power really will improve, or whether the move in bank stocks was purely speculative.Subtle Issues Sometimes MatterAlthough not a major factor in the underperformance of CIBC’s shares vis-à-vis U.S. banks, the Canadian dollar weakened from about C$1.30 when the merger was announced on June 29 to C$1.33 in early December when the shareholder meeting was postponed. When shareholders voted to approve the deal on May 12 the Canadian dollar had eased further to C$1.37. The weakness occurred after the merger agreement was signed and the initial fairness opinions were delivered on June 29. Sometimes seemingly small financial issues can matter in the broad fairness mosaic, but only with the clarity of hindsight.Waiting for a Better Deal is not a Fairness ConsiderationAlthough a board will consider the business case for a transaction and strategic alternatives, a fairness opinion does not address these issues. The original registration statement noted that Private was not formally shopped. The deal was negotiated with CIBC exclusively, which twice upped its initial offer before the merger agreement was signed in June. It was noted that the likely potential acquirers of PVTB were unable to transact for various reasons. The turn of events raises an interesting look-back question: should the board have waited for a better competitive situation to develop? We will never know; however, the board is given the benefit of the doubt because it made an informed decision given what was then known.The Market Established a Fair PriceInstitutional shareholders had implicitly rejected what became an unfair deal by early December when PVTB’s shares traded well above the deal price. The market combined with the “no” recommendation of three proxy firms forced PVTB to delay the special meeting. The increase in the consideration in late March pushed the deal price to a slight premium to PVTB’s market price. CIBC increased the cash consideration an additional $3.00 per share in early May to offset a decline in CIBC’s shares that had occurred since the consideration was increased in March. The market had in effect established its view of a fair price. While CIBC could have declined to up its offer yet again, it chose to offset the decline.Relative Fairness from CIBC’s Perspective FluctuatedWhat appeared to be a reasonable deal from CIBC’s perspective in June became exceptionally fair by early December, if the market is correct that the earning power of U.S. commercial banks will materially improve as a result of the November 8 election. CIBC’s financial advisors can easily change assumptions in Excel spreadsheets to justify a higher price based upon better future earnings than originally projected, but would doing so be “fair” to CIBC shareholders whether expressed euphemistically or formally in a written opinion? So far the evidence of higher earning power is indirect via the market placing a higher multiple on current bank earnings in expectation of much better earnings that will not be observable until 2018 or 2019. That as a stand-alone proposition is an interesting valuation attribute to consider as part of a fairness analysis both from PVTB’s and CIBC’s perspective.ConclusionHindsight is easy; predicting the future is a fool’s errand. Fairness opinions do not opine where securities will trade in the future. Some PVTB shareholders may have regrets that CIBC was not a U.S. commercial bank whose shares would have out-performed CIBC’s after November 8. CIBC shareholders may regret the PVTB acquisition even though U.S. expansion has been a top priority. The key, as always in any M&A transaction, will be execution over the next several years rather than the PowerPoint presentation. Higher rates, a faster growing U.S. economy and the like will help, too, if they occur.We at Mercer Capital cannot predict the future, but we have over three decades of experience in helping boards assess transactions as financial advisors. Sometimes paths and fairness from a financial point of view seem clear; other times they do not. Please call if we can assist your company in evaluating a transaction.This article originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, July 2017.
Creating Value at Your Community Bank Through Developing a FinTech Framework
Creating Value at Your Community Bank Through Developing a FinTech Framework
This discussion is adapted from Section III of the new book Creating Strategic Value Through Financial Technology byJay D. Wilson, Jr., CFA, ASA, CBA. I enjoyed some interesting discussions between bankers, FinTech executives, and consultants at the FinXTech event in NYC in late April.  One dominant theme at the event was a growing desire of both banks and FinTech companies to find ways to work together.  Whether through partnerships or potential investments and acquisitions, both banks and FinTech companies are coming to the conclusion that they need each other.  Banks control the majority of customer relationships, have a stark funding advantage and know how to navigate the maze of regulations, while FinTechs represent a means to achieve low-cost scaling of new and traditional bank services.  So one key question emerging from these discussions is: Who will survive and thrive in the digital age?  As one recent Tearsheet article that I was quoted in asked: Should fintech startups buy banks?  Or as another article discussed: Will banks be able to compete against an army of Fintech startups?Build, Partner, or AcquireBanks face a conundrum of whether they should build their own FinTech applications, partner, or acquire.  FinTech companies face similar questions, though the questions are viewed through the prism of customer acquisition rather than applications.  Non-control investments of FinTech companies by banks represent a hybrid strategy.  Regulatory hurdles limit the ability of FinTech companies to make anything more than a modest investment in banks absent bypassing voting common stock for non-voting common and/or convertible preferred.While these strategic decisions will vary from company to company, the stakes are incredibly high for all.  We can help both sides navigate the decision process.As I noted in my recently published book, community banks collectively remain the largest lenders to both small business and agricultural businesses, and individually, they are often the lifeblood for economic development within their local communities.  Yet the number of community banks declines each year through M&A, while some risk loosened deposit relationships as children who no longer reside in a community where the bank is located inherit the financial assets of deceased parents.  FinTech can loosen those bonds further, or it can be used to strengthen relationships while providing a means to deliver services at a lower cost.Where to StartIn my view, it is increasingly important for bankers to develop a FinTech framework and be able to adequately assess potential returns from FinTech partnerships.  Similar to other business endeavors, the difference between success and failure in the FinTech realm is often not found in the ideas themselves, but rather, in the execution.Banks face a conundrum of whether they should build their own FinTech applications, partner, or acquire.While a bank’s FinTech framework may evolve over time, it will be important to provide a strategic roadmap for the bank to optimize chances of success.  Within this framework, there are a number of important steps:Determining which FinTech niche to pursue;Identifying potential FinTech companies/partners;Developing a business case for those potential partners and their solutions; andExecuting the chosen strategy. For a number of banks, the use of FinTech and other enhanced digital offerings represents a potential investment that uses capital but may be deemed to have more attractive returns than other traditional bank growth strategies. Community banks typically underperform their larger brethren (as measured by ROE and ROA) because fee income is lower and expenses are higher as measured by efficiency ratios.  Both areas can be enhanced through deployment of a number of FinTech offerings/solutions.The Importance of a Detailed IRR AnalysisThe decision process for whether to build, partner, or acquire requires the bank to establish a rate of return threshold, which arguably may be higher than the institution’s base cost of capital given the risk that can be associated with FinTech investments. The range of returns for each strategy (build, partner, or acquire) for a targeted niche (such as payments or wealth management) provides a framework to help answer the question how to proceed just as is the case with the question of how to deploy capital for organic growth, acquisitions, and shareholder distributions.  The same applies for FinTech companies, though often the decision is in the context of whether to accept dilutive equity capital.A detailed analysis, including an IRR analysis, helps a bank determine the financial impact of each strategic decision and informs the optimal course.While each option presents a unique set of considerations and execution issues/risks, a detailed analysis, including an IRR analysis, helps a bank determine the financial impact of each strategic decision and informs the optimal course. A detailed analysis also allows the bank to compare its FinTech strategy to the bank’s more traditional growth strategies, strategic plan, and cost of capital.  See the table to the right for an example of a traditional community bank compared to a bank who has partnered with a FinTech company.Questions Regarding PartneringBeyond the strategic decisions and return analyses, some additional questions remain for community banks that consider FinTech partners, including:Is the bank comfortable with the FinTech company’s risk profile?What will the regulatory reaction be?Who will maintain the primary relationship with the customer?Is the FinTech partnership consistent with the bank’s long-term strategic plan (a key topic noted in the OCC’s whitepaper on supporting innovation)?Questions Regarding AcquiringShould the community bank ultimately decide to invest in a FinTech partner a number of other key questions emerge, such as:What is the valuation of the FinTech company?How should the investment be structured?What preferences or terms should be included in the shares purchased from the FinTech company?Should the bank obtain board seats or some control over the direction of the FinTech Company’s operations?How Mercer Capital Can HelpTo help both banks and FinTech companies execute their optimal strategies and create maximum value for their shareholders, we have a number of solutions here at Mercer Capital.  We have a book that provides greater detail on the history and outlook for the FinTech industry, as well as containing targeted information to help bankers answer some of the key questions discussed here.Mercer Capital has a long history of working with banks.  We are aware of the challenges facing community banks.  With ROEs for the majority below 10% and their cost of capital, it has become increasingly difficult for many banks to deliver adequate returns to shareholders even though credit costs today, are low.  Being both a great company that delivers benefits to your local community, as well as one that delivers strong returns to shareholders is a difficult challenge. Confronting the challenge requires a solid mix of the right strategy as well as the right team to execute that strategy.No one understands community banks and FinTech as well as Mercer Capital.Mercer Capital can help your bank craft a comprehensive value creation strategy that properly aligns your business, financial, and investor strategy. Given the growing importance of FinTech solutions to the banking sector, a sound value creation strategy needs to incorporate FinTech into it and Mercer Capital can help.We provide board/management retreats to educate you about the opportunities and challenges of FinTech for your institution.We can identify which FinTech niches may be most appropriate for your bank given your existing market opportunities.We can identify which FinTech companies may offer the greatest potential as partners for your bank.We can provide assistance with valuations should your bank elect to consider investments or acquisitions of FinTech companies. No one understands community banks and FinTech as well as Mercer Capital. We are happy to help. Contact me to discuss your needs. This article first appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, June 2017.
5 Reasons to Conduct a Shareholder Survey
5 Reasons to Conduct a Shareholder Survey
Of all the well-worn clichés that should be retired, “maximizing shareholder value” is surely toward the top of the list.  Since private companies don’t have constant public market feedback, attempts to “maximize” shareholder “value” are destined to end in frustration.  While private company managers are not able to gauge instantaneous market reaction to their performance, they do know who their shareholders are.  Wouldn’t it be better to make corporate decisions based on the characteristics and preferences of actual flesh-and-blood shareholders than the assumed preferences of generic shareholders that exist only in textbooks?  If so, there is no substitute for simply asking.  Here’s a quick list of five good reasons for conducting a survey of your shareholders.A survey will help you learn about your shareholders. A well-crafted shareholder survey will go beyond mere demographic data (age and family relationships) to uncover what deeper characteristics owners share and what characteristics distinguish owners from one another.  We recently completed a survey for a multi-generation family company, and not surprisingly, one of the findings was that the shareholder base included a number of distinct “clienteles” or groups of shareholders with common needs and risk preferences.  What was surprising was that the clienteles were not defined by age or family tree branch, but rather by the degree to which (a) the shareholder’s household income was concentrated in distributions from company stock, and (b) the shareholder’s personal wealth was concentrated in company stock.  The boundary lines for the resulting clienteles did not fall where management naturally assumed.A survey will help you gauge shareholder preferences. The results from a shareholder survey will help directors and managers move away from abstract objectives (like “maximizing shareholder value”) toward concrete objectives that actually take into account shareholder preferences.  For example, what are shareholder preferences for near-term liquidity, current distributions, and capital appreciation?  Identifying these preferences will enable directors and shareholders to craft a coherent strategy that addresses actual shareholder needs.  Conducting a survey does not mean that the board is off-loading its fiduciary responsibility to make these decisions to the shareholders: a survey is not a vote.  Rather, it is a systematic means for the board to solicit shareholder preferences as an essential component of deliberating over these decisions.A survey will help educate the shareholders about the strategic decisions facing the company. While a survey provides information about the shareholders to the company, it also inevitably provides information about the company to shareholders.  In our experience, the survey is most effective if preceded by a brief education session that reviews the types of questions that will be asked in the survey.  Shareholders do not need finance degrees to be able to understand the three basic decisions that every company faces: (1) how should we finance operations and growth investments (capital structure), (2) what investments should we be making (capital budgeting), and (3) what form should shareholder returns take (distribution policy).  Educated shareholders can provide valuable input to directors and managers, and will prove to be more engaged in management’s long-term strategy.A survey will help establish a roadmap for communicating operating results to shareholders. Public companies are required by law to communicate operating results to the markets on a timely basis, and many public companies invest significant resources in the investor relations function because they recognize that it is critical that the markets understand not just the bare “what happened” of financial reporting, but the “why” of strategy.  Oddly, for most private companies, there is no roadmap for communicating results, and investor relations is either ignored or consists of reluctantly answering potentially-loaded questions from disgruntled owners (who may, frankly, enjoy being a nuisance).  A shareholder survey can be a great jumping-off point for a more structured process for proactively communicating operating results to shareholders.  An informed shareholder base that understands not only “what happened” but also “why” is more likely to take the long-view in evaluating performance.A survey gives a voice to the “un-squeaky” wheels. A shareholder’s input should not be proportionate to the volume with which the input is given.  While the squeaky wheel often gets the grease, it is prudent for directors and managers to solicit the feedback regarding the needs and preferences of quieter shareholders.  Asking for input from all shareholders through a systematic survey process helps ensure that the directors and managers are receiving a balanced picture of the shareholder base.  A confidential survey administered by an independent third party can increase the likelihood of receiving frank (and therefore valuable) responses. An engaged and informed shareholder base is essential for the long-term health and success of any private company, and a periodic shareholder survey is a great tool for achieving that result.  To discuss how a shareholder survey or ongoing investor relations program might benefit your company, give one of our senior professionals a call.
Strategic Benefits of  Stress Testing
Strategic Benefits of Stress Testing
“Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do.”– Warren Buffett, Berkshire 2017 Annual Shareholder Letter While the potential regulatory benefits are notable, stress testing should be viewed as more than just a regulatory check-the-box exercise. The process of stress testing can help bankers find silver (or gold in Warren’s case) linings during the next downturn.What Stress Testing Can Do For Your BankAs we have noted before, a bank stress test can be seen as analogous to stress tests performed by cardiologists to determine the health of a patient’s heart. Bank stress tests provide a variety of benefits that could serve to ultimately improve the health of the bank and avoid fatal consequences. Strategic benefits of a robust stress test are not confined merely to the results and structure of the test. A robust stress test can help bank management make better decisions in order to enhance performance during downturns. A bank that has a sound understanding of its potential risks in different market environments can improve its decision making, manage risk appropriately, and have a plan of action ready for when economic winds shift from tailwinds to headwinds.By improving risk management and capital planning through more robust stress testing, management can enhance performance of the bank, improve valuation, and provide better returns to shareholders. For example, a stronger bank may determine that it has sufficient capital to withstand extremely stressed scenarios and thus can have a game plan for taking market share and pursuing acquisitions or buybacks during dips in the economic, valuation, and credit cycle. Alternatively, a weaker bank may determine that considering a sale or capital raise during a peak in the cycle is the optimal path forward. If the weaker bank elects to raise capital, a stress test will help to assess how much capital may be needed to survive and thrive during a severe economic environment. Beyond the strategic benefits, estimating loan losses embedded within a sound stress test can also provide a bank with a head start on the pending shift in loan loss reserve accounting from the current “incurred loss” model to the more forward-looking approach proposed in FASB’s CECL (Current Expected Credit Loss) model.Top Down Stress TestingIn order to have a better understanding of the stress testing process, consider a hypothetical “top-down” portfolio-level stress test. While not prescriptive in regards to the particular stress testing methods, OCC Supervisory Guidance noted, “For most community banks, a simple, stressed loss-rate analysis based on call report categories may provide an acceptable foundation to determine if additional analysis is necessary.” The basic steps of a top-down stress test include determining the appropriate economic scenarios, segmenting the loan portfolio and estimating losses, estimating the impact of stress on earnings, and estimating the stress on capital.While the first step of determining a stressed scenario to consider varies depending upon a variety of factors, one way to determine your bank’s stressed economic scenario could be to consider the supervisory scenarios announced by the Federal Reserve in February 2017. While the more global economic conditions detailed in the supervisory scenarios may not be applicable to community banks, certain detail related to domestic variables within the scenarios could be useful when determining the economic scenarios to model at your bank. The domestic variables include six measures of real economic activity and inflation, six measures of interest rates, and four measures of asset prices.The 2017 severely adverse scenario includes a severe global recession, accompanied by heightened corporate financial stress (real GDP contraction, rising unemployment, and declining asset values). Some have characterized the 2017 “severe” scenario as less severe than the 2016 scenario (given a relatively higher disposable income growth forecast and a lack of negative short-term yields, which were included in the 2016 economic scenarios). However, CRE prices were forecast to decline more in the 2017 scenario, and those banks more focused on CRE or corporate lending may find the 2017 scenarios more negatively impact their capital and earnings forecasts.For community banks facing more unique risks that are under greater regulatory scrutiny, such as those with significant concentrations in commercial real estate lending or a business model concentrated in particular niche segments, a top-down stress test can serve as a starting point to build their stress testing process. The current environment may be an opportune time for these banks to plan ahead.While credit concerns in recent quarters have been minimal and provisions and non-performing asset levels have trended lower for the banking sector as a whole, certain loan segments have shown some signs that the credit pendulum may have reached its apex and reversed course by swinging back in the other direction. REITs were net sellers of property in 2016 for the first time since 2009, and a rising rate environment could pressure capitalization rates higher and underlying commercial real estate asset values lower. Furthermore, banks with longer duration fixed rate loans could face a combination of margin pressure and credit quality concerns as rates rise.ConclusionRegulatory guidance suggests a wide range of effective stress testing methods depending on the bank’s complexity and portfolio risk–ranging from “top-down” to “bottom-up” stress testing. The guidance also notes that stress testing can be applied at various levels of the organization including transactional level stress testing, portfolio level stress testing, enterprise-wide level stress testing, and reverse stress testing.We acknowledge that community bank stress testing can be a complex exercise as it requires the bank to essentially perform the role of both doctor and patient. For example, the bank must administer the test, determine and analyze the outputs of its performance, and provide support for key assumptions/results. There is also a variety of potential stress testing methods and economic scenarios for a bank to consider when setting up their test. In addition, the qualitative, written support for the test and its results is often as important as the results themselves. For all of these reasons, it is important that bank management begin building their stress testing expertise sooner rather than later.In order to assist community bankers with this complex and often time-consuming exercise, we offer several solutions, including preparing custom stress tests or reviewing ones prepared by banks internally, to make the process as efficient and valuable for the bank as possible.To discuss your stress testing needs in confidence, please do not hesitate to contact us. For more information about stress testing, click here.This article originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, March 2017.
2016 and 2017: Buy the Rumor and Sell the News?
2016 and 2017: Buy the Rumor and Sell the News?
Last year was a volatile year for credit and equity markets that saw price moves that more typically play out over a couple of years. The year began with a broad-based sell-off in risk assets that got underway in late 2015 due to concerns about the impact of the then Fed intention to raise short-term rates up to four times, widening credit spreads, and a collapse in oil prices. Credit (i.e., leverage loans and high yield debt) and equities rebounded in March and through the second quarter after market participants concluded that media headlines about potentially sub $20 oil were ridiculous and that the Fed probably would not raise rates four times; or, stated differently—the U.S. economy was not headed for recession. Markets staged the second strong rally of the year immediately following the national elections on November 8th with the surprise election of Donald Trump as the next POTUS, and Republicans holding Congress.Not surprisingly, the heavily regulated financial sector outperformed the broader market, with bank stocks (as represented by the SNL U.S. Bank Index) gaining 23% versus 5% for the S&P from November 8th through the end of the year. Most of the return for the bank index was realized after the election given the full year total return of 26%. Banks in the $1 to $5 billion and $5 to $10 billion groups led the way in 2016 with total returns on the order of 44% for the year.The magnitude of the rally in bank stocks was notable because the U.S. economy was not emerging from recession – when bank earnings are near a cyclical trough, poised to turn sharply higher as credit costs fall and loan demand improves. Last year was a great year for most bank stock investors. Bank returns averaged around 40% in 2016, with 30% of the U.S. banks analyzed (traded on the NASDAQ, NYSE, or NYSE Market exchanges for the full year) realizing total returns greater than 50%. The returns reflected three factors: earnings growth, dividends (or share repurchases that were accretive to EPS), and multiple expansion. As shown in Figure 4, the median P/E for publicly-traded banks expanded about 30% to 20.6x trailing 12-month earnings at year-end from 15.9x at year-end 2015. Likewise, the median P/TBV multiple expanded to 181% from 140%. While bank stocks closed the year at the highest P/E level seen this century, P/TBV multiples remain below the pre-crisis peak given lower ROEs (ROTCEs), which in turn are attributable to higher capital and lower NIMs. Figure 5 summarizes profitability by asset size. Banks with assets between $5 and $10 billion were the most profitable on an ROA basis and realized the highest total returns for the year. This group stands to benefit the most from regulatory reform if the Dodd-Frank $10 billion threshold (and $50 billion for SIFIs) is raised. In the most optimistic scenario, the market appears to be discounting that banks’ profitability will materially improve with lower tax rates, higher rates, and less regulation. The corollary to this is that the stocks are not as expensive as they appear because forward earnings will be higher provided credit costs remain modest. Based upon our review, most analysts have incorporated lower tax rates into their 2018 estimates, which accounts for much more modest P/Es based upon 2018 consensus estimates compared to 2017 consensus estimates. 2016 M&A TrendsOn the surface, 2016 M&A activity eased modestly from 2014 and 2015 levels based upon fewer transactions announced; however, when measured relative to the number of banks and thrifts at the beginning of the year, 2016 was consistent with the long-running trend of 2-4% of institutions being acquired each year. The 246 announced transactions represented 3.8% of the 6,122 chartered institutions at the beginning of the year compared to 4.5% for 2014 and 4.2% for 2015. As for pricing, median multiples softened a little bit, but we do not read much into that. Last year, the median P/TBV multiple for transactions in which deal pricing was disclosed eased to 136% compared to 142% in 2015; the median P/E based upon trailing 12 month earnings as reported declined to 21.2x versus 24.4x in 2015. Elevated public market multiples since the national election have set the stage for higher M&A multiples in 2017 as publicly-traded buyers can “pay” a higher price with elevated share prices (Figure 8). The impact of this was seen among some larger transactions announced after the national election compared to when LOIs were announced earlier in the Fall. Activity may not necessarily pick-up with higher nominal prices, however, if would be sellers decide to wait for higher earnings as a result of anticipated increases in rates and lower taxes and regulations. In effect, some may wait for even better values or decide not to sell because ROEs improve sufficiently to justify remaining independent. Time will tell. Figure 9 shows the change in deal multiples from announcement to closing and compares the change between deals announced and closed pre-election to those closed post-election. With the run-up in pricing, P/E and P/TBV multiples increased 12% and 9% from announcement to close compared to 4% and a decline of 1% pre-election. 2017 OutlookNo one knows what the future holds, although one can assess probabilities. An old market saw states “buy the rumor; sell the news” which means stocks move before the expected news comes to pass. As of the date of the drafting of this note (February 7), bank stocks are roughly flat in 2017. The stocks have priced in the likelihood of some roll-back in Dodd-Frank, higher short-term and long-term rates, lower tax rates, and a generally more favorable economic backdrop that supports loan growth and asset quality. The magnitude of these likely – but not preordained – outcomes and the timing are unknown. Following a big rally in 2016, returns for bank stocks may be muted in 2017 even if events in Washington and the Fed prove to be favorable for banks.That said, higher stock prices and investor demand for reasonable yielding sub-debt from quality issuers implies the M&A market for banks should be solid. The one caveat is that there are fewer banks, so a healthy M&A market for banks could still entail fewer transactions than were recorded in 2016.Mercer Capital is a national business valuation and financial advisory firm. Financial Institutions are the cornerstone of our practice. To discuss a valuation or transaction issue in confidence, feel free to contact us.This article originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, February 2017.
EBITDA Single-Period Income Capitalization for Business Valuation
EBITDA Single-Period Income Capitalization for Business Valuation
[Fall 2016] This article begins with a discussion of EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The focus on the EBITDA of private companies is almost ubiquitous among business appraisers, business owners, and other market participants. The article then addresses the relationship between depreciation (and amortization) and EBIT, or earnings before interest and taxes, as one measure of relative capital intensity. This relationship, which is termed the EBITDA Depreciation Factor, is then used to convert debt-free pretax (i.e., EBIT) multiples into corresponding multiples of EBITDA. The article presents analysis that illustrates why, in valuation terms (i.e., expected risk, growth, and capital intensity), the so-called pervasive rules of thumb suggesting that many companies are worth 4.03to 6.03EBITDA, plus or minus, exhibit such stickiness. The article suggests a technique based on the adjusted capital asset pricing model whereby business appraisers and market participants can independently develop EBITDA multiples under the income approach to valuation. Finally, the article presents private and public company market evidence regarding the EBITDA Depreciation Factor, which should facilitate further investigation and analysis.[Reprinted from the American Society of AppraisersBusiness Valuation Review, Volume 35, Issue 3, Fall 2016]Download the article in pdf format here.
Are Robo-Advisors on Any  Banker’s Wish List?
Are Robo-Advisors on Any Banker’s Wish List?
Christmas appears to have come early for some bankers and their investors with the SNL Bank index up over 30% from the November 8, 2016 election to mid-December. While optimism abounds, one inconvenient truth remains for the time being: ROEs for the banking industry as a whole remain below pre-financial crisis levels despite credit costs that are below most historical standards. The factors challenging ROEs for the sector are numerous but include: compressed net interest margins from a historically low rate environment, enhanced competition from non-banks, a challenging regulatory and compliance environment, and evolving consumer preferences regarding the delivery of financial services.These factors are particularly acute for most community banks that depend heavily on spread income and do not have the scale to absorb expense pressures as easily as their larger brethren. Further, many community banks are at a crossroad because their ROE consistently has fallen below the cost of capital, which in turn is forcing boards to consider strategic options like outright sales or potentially risky acquisition strategies to obtain scale.In an ideal world, community banks could easily add fee businesses that are capital-light, such as wealth management and trust operations, to boost returns. By pairing traditional banking services with other financial services like wealth management, banks can obtain more touch points for customer relationships, enhance revenue, and potentially improve the bank’s valuation. While we have previously spoken about the potential benefits to community banks of acquiring or building out a traditional wealth management operation, we have not addressed emerging FinTech companies, like robo-advisors, that are focused on the wealth management space.While there has been a race to partner and/or acquire robo-advisors by many of the larger asset managers and banks, there have also been some interesting partnerships with community banks. One such partnership struck is among Cambridge Savings Bank, a $3.5 billion bank located near Boston, and SigFig, a robo-advisor founded in 2007. While SigFig has relationships with UBS and Wells Fargo, its partnership with Cambridge Savings is notable because the two built a service called “ConnectInvest.“ When announced in the spring of 2016, the partnership was described as the “first automated investment service integrated and bundled directly into a retail bank’s product offerings in the U.S.” ConnectInvest, which is available to Cambridge’s customers digitally (mobile and website), “allows customers to easily open, fund, and manage an automated investment account tailored to their goals.” Cambridge’s customers are interested in the offering and have started using it. The goal is get up to 10% of its customer base using ConnectInvest.With this example in mind, the remainder of this article offers an overview of the robo-advisory space for our community bank readers so that they may gain a better understanding of the key players and their service offerings and assess whether their bank could benefit from leveraging opportunities in this area.An Overview of Robo-AdvisorsRobo-advisors were noted by the CFA Institute as the FinTech innovation most likely to have the greatest impact on the financial services industry in the short-term (one year) and medium-term (five years). Robo-advisory has gained traction in the past several years as a niche within the FinTech industry by offering online wealth management tools powered by sophisticated algorithms that can help investors manage their portfolios at very low costs and with minimal need for human contact or advice. Technological advances that make the business model possible, coupled with a loss of consumer trust in the wealth management industry in the wake of the financial crisis, have created a favorable environment for robo-advisory startups to disrupt financial advisories, RIAs, and wealth managers. This growth is forcing traditional incumbents to confront the new entrants by adding the service via acquisition or partnership rather than dismiss it as a passing fad.Robo-advisors have been successful for a number of reasons, though like many digital products low-cost, convenience, and transparency are common attributes.Low Cost. Automated, algorithm-driven decision-making greatly lowers the cost of financial advice and portfolio management.Accessible. As a result of the lowered cost of financial advice, advanced investment strategies are more accessible to a wider customer base.Personalized Strategies. Sophisticated algorithms and computer systems create personalized investment strategies that are highly tailored to the specific needs of individual investors.Transparent. Through online platforms and mobile apps, clients are able to view information about their portfolios and enjoy visibility in regard to the way their money is being managed.Convenient. Portfolio information and management becomes available on-demand through online platforms and mobile apps. Consistent with the rise in consumer demand for robo-advisory, investor interest has grown steadily. While robo-advisory has not drawn the levels of investment seen in other niches (such as online lending platforms), venture capital funding of robo-advisories has skyrocketed from almost non-existent levels ten years ago to hundreds of millions of dollars invested annually the last few years. 2016 saw several notable rounds of investment into not only some of the industry’s largest and most mature players (including rounds of $100 million for Betterment and $75 million for Personal Capital), but also for innovative startups just getting off the ground (such as SigFig and Vestmark). The table below provides an overview of the fee schedules, assets under management and account opening minimums for several of the larger robo-advisors. The robo-advisors are separated into three tiers. Tier I consists of early robo-advisory firms who have positioned themselves at the top of the industry. Tier II consists of more recent robo-advisory startups that are experiencing rapid growth and are ripe for partnership. Tier III consists of robo-advisory services of traditional players who have decided to build and run their own technology in-house. As shown, account opening sizes and fee schedules are lower than many traditional wealth management firms. The strategic challenge for a number of the FinTech startups in Tiers I and II is generating enough AUM and scale to produce revenue sufficient to maintain the significantly lower fee schedules. This can be challenging since the cost to acquire a new customer can be significant and each of these startups has required significant venture capital funding to develop. For example, each of these companies has raised over $100 million of venture capital funding since inception. Key Potential Effects of Robo-AdvisoryWe see five potential effects of robo-advisors entering the financial services landscape.Fee pressure. Robo-advisors may be a niche area for the time being, but the emergence and success of a technology-driven solution that challenges an age-old business (wealth management) epitomizes what has long been associated with internet (and digital) delivery of services: faster, better, and cheaper.The Democratization of Wealth Management. As a result of the low costs of robo-advisory services, new investors have been able to gain access to sophisticated investment strategies that, in the past, have only been available to high net worth, accredited investors.Holistic Financial Life Management. As more people have access to financial advice through robo-advisors, traditional financial advisors are being forced to move away from return-driven goals for clients and pivot towards offering a more complete picture of a client’s financial well-being as clients save for milestones such as retirement, a child’s education, and a new house. This phenomenon has increased the differentiation pressure on traditional financial advisors and RIAs, as robo-advisors can offer a holistic snapshot in a manner that is comprehensive and easy to understandDrivers of the Changing Role of the Traditional Financial Advisor. The potential shift away from return-driven goals could leave the role of the traditional financial advisor in limbo. This raises the question of what traditional wealth managers will look like going forward. One potential answer is traditional financial advisors will tackle more complex issues, such as tax and estate planning, and leave the more programmed decision-making to robo-advisors.Build, Buy, Partner, or Wait and See. As the role of the financial advisor changes, traditional incumbents like community banks are faced with determining what they want their relationship with robo-advisory to look like. In short, incumbents are left with four options: build their own robo-advisory in-house, buy a startup and adopt its technology, create a strategic partnership with a startup, or stay in a holding pattern in regard to robo-advisory and continue business as usual. Robo-advisory is an exciting development for wealth managers and offers opportunities potentially for bankers to expand or develop their offerings in this area. Similar to any other growth strategy, the goal will ultimately be for the bank to enhance profitability and shareholder value by adding desired customer services. For those bankers who may want to add a robo-advisor to their wish list, the key question of whether to build, buy, or partner is a challenging one. We will be speaking at the annual Acquire or Be Acquired (AOBA) conference in January on the topic of how to develop a framework to better assess this question. Additionally, for those who may go the investment route via a minority investment or outright acquisition, we offer some perspective on how to value and structure investments in FinTech companies like robo-advisors. Given the vast array of FinTech companies emerging in different areas of financial services, it will be important for bankers to develop a framework for both assessing potential opportunities and focusing in on those that provide the greatest potential to enhance profitability and shareholder value. We will post our slide deck from our AOBA session and make it accessible to BankWatch readers in the first quarter of 2017, so stay tuned. Additionally, we have a new book coming in the spring of 2017 – Creating Strategic Value Through Financial Technology. In this book, we illustrate the potential benefits of FinTech to banks, both large and small, so that they can gain a better understanding of FinTech and how it can create value for their shareholders and enhance the health and profitability of their institutions. As always, please do not hesitate to contact us if we can help in any way. This article originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Bank Watch, January 2017. 
Use the Interim Time Between Now and the Future Sale of a Business to Wisely Prepare
Use the Interim Time Between Now and the Future Sale of a Business to Wisely Prepare
Is business ownership a binary thing? Do we either own our businesses or not? The binary notion leads business owners to think either in terms of either the status quo or of an eventual sale of the business.The truth is that between the two bookends of status quo and an eventual third-party sale are many possibilities for creating shareholder liquidity and diversification and facilitating both ownership and management transitions. We call this time "interim time." The literal translation of “interim” from the original Latin means, “the time between.” Interim time, then, is the time between now, or the current status quo of a business, and an ultimate sale of that business. Let’s look at the bookends:Status Quo. First, let’s talk about the either. The status quo may be an excellent strategy. If sales and earnings are rising, existing owners can benefit from the growth and expected appreciation in value and maintain control of the business. However, the status quo, in many instances, does not provide liquidity and diversification opportunities for owners and places all execution risk on them. A decision to maintain the status quo for your business may not do much to advance necessary ownership and management transitions, as well. A decision to maintain the status quo should be based on conscious decision making and not on procrastination. And the status quo has an insidious side to it – unless you and the other owners do something, you will stay in the status quo for a long, long time; therefore, you have to question the status quo on an ongoing basis.Ultimate Third-Party Sale. Now, let’s talk about the or. If your business is continuing in a status quo mode, chances are you are not preparing it for an eventual sale. After all, it will happen someday, but not in the foreseeable future. Chances are also that you and the other owners may not be preparing yourselves for an eventual sale. And if you are maintaining a status quo status, you may not be able to influence the timing of an eventual sale. The ideal time to sell a business is when the markets are hot, when financing is readily available, when your business is tracking upward and has a good outlook, and when the owners are ready. In reality, what you can hope to achieve in a sale of your business is the best pricing available in the market at the time of the sale. If you remain in the status quo, you may not get to choose the timing of the eventual sale.If it seems like we are painting an eventual third party sale as an unfavorable outcome, we are not. It can result in an unfavorable outcome, however, if your business is not ready for sale at the given time and if you and your other owners are not ready, personally, for that eventual sale.What to Do in the Interim TimeManaging illiquid, private wealth in private businesses is far more than running the businesses themselves. We all have to manage our businesses. Managing the wealth in our businesses requires a much more active role for business owners and often a different level of attention on the business itself.The status quo and an eventual third-party sale are, indeed, bookends. Consider the table. If we are managing the wealth in our closely held and family businesses, we will be focused on creating liquidity opportunities over time and on achieving reasonable returns from our companies on a risk-adjusted basis. We will be using our companies as vehicles to generate liquid wealth and diversification opportunities over time. The table shows the bookends of status quo and third-party sale options. In between are a number of options that owners of successful private companies can use to manage the wealth tied up in them and to create ongoing opportunities for liquidity and diversification. At the far right, after the sale of a business, its owners must, in many cases, be prepared for the rest of their lives. So it is important to run a business in such a way that its owners develop liquidity and diversification to create options for the rest of their lives. The table is certainly not all inclusive, but it does include some easily implementable options like establishing a dividend/distribution policy or making occasional share repurchases as owners need some liquidity or, for example, when an owner leaves the company. This purchase might be pursuant to the terms of a buy-sell agreement. If your company has significant excess assets, it is probably a good idea to clean up your balance sheet and declare a special dividend. And it may be appropriate to have one or more key managers acquire small stakes in the company to facilitate alignment and future management transitions. I call these options “easily implementable,” but they won’t happen unless someone does something. The next category of options in the table above are termed “significant and realistic minority options.” They include relatively small leveraged dividend recapitalizations or share repurchases. The options also might include the creation of a 30% or less ESOP in appropriate circumstances. These transactions certainly won’t happen without someone doing something. They will likely require the assistance of outside expertise, and there will be certain transaction costs. Transaction costs should be considered in the context of investments. The third category after the status quo is called “control level options.” For some successful private companies, it may be appropriate to engage in substantial transactions to create liquidity opportunities and to retain ownership in expected future growth and appreciation. Options here include: Leveraged share repurchasesLeveraged dividend recapitalizationsEmployee Stock Ownership Plans The final category is the bookend of third-party sale transactions. It should now be clear that there are options other than selling a business today, or simply maintaining the status quo, for managing the illiquid wealth in your private company.Benefits of Focusing on Interim TimeThe shareholder benefits of employing one or more of the above strategies over time include the following:Acceleration of cash returns, liquidity opportunities, and opportunities for diversification and creating liquidity independent of your companyAbility for your owners to diversify their portfoliosOptimization of your company’s capital structure with reasonable leverageEnhanced return on equity with reasonable leverageEnhanced earnings per share for some optionsPlanned changes in ownership structure with shareholder redemptions, with remaining owners achieving pickups in their relative ownership of the companyEnhanced performance and reduced business risk with focus on the business Employing one or more of the above The One Percent Solution strategies is tantamount to using modern investment theory concepts and basic corporate finance tools in the management of illiquid private company wealth. For more information or to discuss a valuation and transaction issue in confidence, please do not hesitate to contact us.
5 Trends to Watch in the Medical Device Industry in 2016
5 Trends to Watch in the Medical Device Industry in 2016
Medical Device OverviewThe medical device manufacturing industry produces equipment designed to diagnose and treat patients within global healthcare systems. Medical devices range from simple tongue depressors and bandages, to complex programmable pacemakers and sophisticated imaging systems. Major product categories include surgical implants and instruments, medical supplies, electro-medical equipment, in-vitro diagnostic equipment and reagents, irradiation apparatuses, and dental goods.The following outlines five structural factors and trends that influence demand and supply of medical devices and related procedures.1. DemographicsThe aging population, driven by declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, represents a major demand driver for medical devices. The U.S. elderly population (persons 65 and above) totaled 48 million   in 2015 (15% of the population). The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the elderly will roughly double by 2060 to 98 million, representing 24% of the total U.S. population.The elderly account for nearly one third of total healthcare consumption. Personal healthcare spendingfor the 65 and above population segment was $19,000 per person in 2012, five times the spending per child ($3,600) and almost triple the spending per working-age person ($6,600).According to United Nations projections, the global elderly population will rise from 608 million (8.3% of world population) in 2015 to 1.8 billion (18.1% of world population) in 2060. Europe’s elderly are projected to reach 28% of the population by 2060, making it the world’s oldest region. While Latin America and Asia are currently relatively young, these regions are expected to experience drastic transformations over the next several decades, with the over 65 population segments expected to expand from 8% in 2015 to more than 23% of the total population by 2060.2. Healthcare Spending and the Legislative Landscape in the U.S.Demographic shifts underlie the expected growth in total U.S. healthcare expenditure from $3.2 trillion in 2015 to $5.6 trillion in 2025. Healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP is also expected to expand from 17% in 2015 to over 20% by 2025.Since inception, Medicare has accounted for an increasing proportion of total U.S. healthcare expenditures. Medicare currently provides healthcare benefits for an estimated 57 million elderly and disabled Americans, constituting approximately 15% of the federal budget in 2015. Medicare represents the largest portion of total healthcare costs, constituting 20% of total health spending in 2014. Medicare also accounts for 26% of hospital spending, 29% of retail prescription drugs sales, and 23% of physician services. Owing to the growing influence of Medicare in aggregate healthcare consumption, legislative developments can have a potentially outsized effect on the demand and pricing for medical products and services. Netoutlays to the four parts of Medicare totaled $540 billion in 2015, and spending is expected to reach $709 billion by 2020. Between 2000 and 2010, growth in Medicare spending per capita was comparable or lower than private health insurance spending. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“ACA”) of 2010 incorporated changes that are expected   to constrain annual growth in Medicare spending over the next several decades by curtailing increases in Medicare payments to healthcare providers, and establishing several new policies and programs designed to reduce costs. On a per person basis, Medicare spending is projected to grow at 4.3% annually from 2015 and 2025, compared to 5.7% average annualized growth realized from 2000 to 2014. As part of ACA legislation, a 2.3% excise tax was imposed on certain medical devices for sales by manufacturers, producers, or importers. The 2.3% levy was expected to net nearly $30 billion over a decade into the early 2020s. The tax became effective on December 31, 2012, but met resistance from industry participants and policy makers. In July of 2015, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to repeal the medical device tax. In late 2015, Congress passed legislation promulgatinga two-year moratorium on the tax beginning January 2016. 3. Third-Party Coverage and ReimbursementThe primary customers of medical device companies are physicians (and/or product approval committees at their hospitals), who select the appropriate equipment for consumers (the patients). In most developed economies, the consumers themselves are one (or more) step removed from interactions with manufacturers, and therefore pricing of medical devices. Device manufacturers typically receive payments from insurers, who usually reimburse healthcare providers for routine procedures (rather than for specific components like the devices used). Accordingly, medical device purchasing decisions tend to be largely disconnected from price.Third-party payors (both private and government programs) are keen to reevaluate their payment policies to constrain rising healthcare costs. Several elements of the ACA are expected to limit reimbursement growth for hospitals, which form the largest market for medical devices. Lower reimbursement growth will likely persuade hospitals to scrutinize medical purchases by adopting i) higher standards to evaluate the benefits of new procedures and devices, and ii) a more disciplined price bargaining stance. The transition of the healthcare delivery paradigm from fee-for-service (FFS) to value models is expected to lead to fewer hospital admissions and procedures, given the focus on cost-cutting and efficiency. In 2015, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced goals to have 85% and 90% of all Medicare payments tied to quality or value by 2016 and 2018, respectively, and 30% and 50% of total Medicare payments tied to alternative payment models by the end of 2016 and 2018, respectively. In March 2016, the HHS estimated 30% of Medicare payments were tied to alternative, value-based models, nearly one yearahead of schedule. Ultimately, lower reimbursement rates and reduced procedure volume will likely limit pricing gains for medical devices and equipment. The medical device industry faces similar reimbursement issues globally. A number of countries have instituted price ceilings on certain medical procedures, which could deflate the reimbursement rates of third-party payors, forcing down industry product prices. Whether third-party payors consider certain devices medically reasonable or necessary for operations presents a hurdle that device makers and manufacturers must overcome in bringing their devices to market. 4. Competitive Factors and Regulatory RegimeHistorically, much of the growth for medical technology companies has been predicated on continual product innovations that make devices easier for doctors to use and improve health outcomes for the patients. Successful product development usually requires significant R&D outlays and a measure of luck. However, viable new devices can elevate average selling prices, market penetration, and market share.Government regulations curb competition in two ways to foster an environment where firms may realize an acceptable level of returns on their R&D investments. First, firms that are first to the market with a new product can benefit from patents and intellectual property protection giving them a competitive advantage for a finite period. Second, regulations govern medical device design and development, preclinical and clinical testing, premarket clearance or approval, registration and listing, manufacturing, labeling, storage, advertising and promotions, sales and distribution, export and import, and post market surveillance.Regulatory Overview in the U.S.In the U.S., the FDA generally oversees the implementation of the second set of regulations. Some relatively simple devices deemed to pose low risk are exempt from the FDA’s clearance requirement and can be marketed in the U.S. without prior authorization. For the remaining devices, commercial distribution requires marketing authorization from the FDA, which comes in primarily two flavors.The premarket notification (“510(k) clearance”) process requires the manufacturer to demonstrate that a device is “substantially equivalent” to an existing device that is legally marketed in the U.S. The 510(k) clearance process may occasionally require clinical data, and generally takes between 90 days and one year for completion.The premarket approval (“PMA”) process is more stringent, time-consuming and expensive. A PMA application must be supported by valid scientific evidence, which typically entails collection of extensive technical, preclinical, clinical and manufacturing data. Once the PMA is submitted and found to be complete, the FDA begins an in-depth re- view, which is required by statute to take no longer than 180 days. However, the process typically takes significantly longer, and may require several years to complete. Pursuant to the Medical Device User Fee Modernization Act (MDUFA), the FDA collects user fees for the review of devices for marketing clearance or approval, as well as establishment registration. The current iteration of the act, MDUFA III, was enacted in 2012 and expected to collect approximately $400 million in user fees over five years. The FDA and the medical device industry have reached a broad agreement on the outlines of the next iteration. The FDA is expected to collect nearly $1 billion in user fees over five years pursuant to MDUFA IV, which would go into effect in in October 2017. Regulatory Overview Outside the U.S.The European Union (EU), along with countries such as Japan, Canada, and Australia all operate strict regulatory regimes similar to that of the U.S. FDA, and international consensus is moving towards more stringent regulations. Stricter regulations for new devices may slow release dates and may negatively affect companies within the industry.Medical device manufacturers face a single regulatory body across the EU, the Company’s second largest end market behind the U.S. In order for a medical device to be allowed on the market, it must meet the requirements set by the EU Medical Devices Directive. Devices must receive a Conformité Européenne (CE) Mark certificate before they are allowed to be sold on the market. This CE marking verifies that a device meets all regulatory requirements for the EU, and that they meet EU safety standards. A set of different directives apply to different types of devices, and the device must be compliant with the directive that purviews it.5. Emerging Global MarketsEmerging economies are claiming a growing share of global healthcare consumption, including medical devices and related procedures, owing to relative economic prosperity, growing medical awareness, and increasing (and increasingly aging) populations. As global health expenditure continues to increase, sales to countries outside the U.S. represent a potential avenue for growth for domestic medical device companies. According to the World Bank, all regions (except Sub-Saharan Africa) have seen an increase in healthcare spending as a percentage of total output over the last two decades. Global medical devices sales are estimated to increase 6.4% annually from 2016 to 2020, reaching nearly $440 billion according to the International Trade Administration. While the Americas are projected to remain the world’s largest medical device market, the Asia and Pacific and Western Europe markets are expected to expand at a quicker pace over the next several years. SummaryDemographic shifts underlie the long-term market opportunity for medical device manufacturers. While efforts to control costs on the part of the government insurer in the U.S. may limit future pricing growth for incumbent products, a growing global market provides domestic device manufacturers with an opportunity to broaden and diversify their geographic revenue base. Developing new products and procedures is risky and usually more resource intensive compared to some other growth sectors of the economy. However, barriers to entry in the form of existing regulations provide a measure of relief from competition, especially for newly developed products.
Characteristics of a Good Buy-Sell Agreement
Characteristics of a Good Buy-Sell Agreement
The creation of buy-sell agreements involves a certain amount of future-thinking. The parties must think about what could, might, or will happen and write an agreement that will work for all sides in the event an agreement is triggered at some unknown time in the future. This article addresses the important characteristics of buy-sell agreements that are important for business owners and for attorneys advising them.What Do Buy-Sell Agreements Do?Buy-sell agreements are entered into between corporations and their shareholders to protect companies against disruptive, harmful, or nonproductive owners (including divorced spouses, competitors, disgruntled former employees and the like). They also provide protections for shareholders who may, for any number of reasons, depart the company. The estates of deceased owners need protection, as do shareholders who have been terminated, with or without cause.It is important that buy-sell agreements be entered into while the interests of the parties (the corporation and the shareholders) are aligned, or at least not sufficiently misaligned, that they cannot discuss the business and valuation aspects of their buy-sell agreements. To the extent possible, attorneys should encourage parties to enter into buy-sell agreements or to review their agreements and update them if they are out of date or circumstances have changed.What is known for certain is that once a trigger event has occurred, the interests of the parties (i.e., the buyer(s) and the seller(s)) diverge and agreement over the pricing and terms of necessary transactions can become difficult or impossible to achieve.Characteristics of a Good Buy-Sell AgreementFrom valuation and other business perspectives, buy-sell agreements generally incorporate several important aspects defining their operation. The list of characteristics of successful buy-sell agreements below is taken from my book, Buy-Sell Agreements for Closely Held and Family Business Owners.Require agreement at a point in time (before trigger events or other dissension) among shareholders of a company and/or between shareholders and the company. It may seem obvious, but if there is no agreement between the shareholders and the company, then there is no buy-sell agreement. Such agreements must be evidenced by a writing of the agreement and by the signatures of all parties who will be subject to the agreement. Agreement is not always easy to obtain. Shareholders have different backgrounds, financial positions, personal outlooks, and involvement with a business, so agreement is not automatic. However, it is important that attorneys continue to work with clients to encourage agreement and that business owners remain committed to reaching agreement and signing their buy-sell agreements.The point in time at which agreement is reached is the date of the signing of each particular buy-sell agreement.Relate to transactions that may or will occur at future points in time between the shareholders, or between the shareholders and the corporation.When the shareholders of a new venture come together to discuss a buy-sell agreement, it is foreseeable that many things can happen that will trigger the operation of a buy-sell agreement. Owners may quit, one may be fired, another may retire, one could die, still another could become divorced, and another could become bankrupt — to name a few.The owners can discuss these future potential trigger events and which ones they want to include specifically in their buy-sell agreements. It is important that all owners think seriously about these issues because, at the time a buy-sell agreement is being drafted, no one knows what might happen to him or to her or to any of the other owners. In other words, no one knows who will be a buyer and who will be a seller.When the owners of an existing enterprise come together to review their buy-sell agreement, they may know that some of the above-mentioned events have already happened in the lives of their fellow owners. They will know if the buy-sell agreement operated satisfactorily, or was triggered at all.For all owners of all enterprises, discussions about buy-sell agreements reflect a form of future thinking, which is sometimes (perhaps always) difficult. As Yogi Berra famously said: “The future’s hard to predict. It hasn’t happened yet.”Choices have to be made regarding buy-sell agreements. Ignoring the importance of these documents because it is difficult to future think about them is one choice. Based on over thirty years of working with businesses and business owners, ignoring the issue is not a good choice.Define the conditions that will cause the buy-sell provisions to be triggered. Most often, business owners think of death as the most likely trigger event for buy-sell agreements. It is actually the least frequent trigger event for most companies.Trigger events have to be defined specifically. Death is fairly obvious. However, firings can be with or without cause, and agreements may need to specify what happens in each circumstance. The parties to an agreement must future think a bit to anticipate what could happen and document the agreement appropriately. If this sounds like work, it is.Determine the price at which the identified future transactions will occur (as in price per share, per unit, or per member interest). Because of the diverging interests of parties following trigger events, this is one of the hardest parts of establishing effective buy-sell agreements. This is why many appraisers and other advisers to closely held businesses recommend appraisal with a pre-determined appraiser as a generally preferable pricing mechanism for substantial business enterprises.There are buy-sell agreements with fixed prices. Unfortunately, these agreements are seldom updated and are ticking time bombs. For a poster child example of what can happen with fixed price agreements, read here.Other buy-sell agreements contain formula pricing provisions. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen a formula yet that can reasonably value any company over time with changing conditions at the company, within its industry and markets, in the local, regional or national economies, and in all market conditions and interest rate environments.Then, there are what we call valuation process agreements, which provide for a valuation process to determine the price. Many agreements have an embedded multiple appraiser process which will not be exercised until the occurrence of a trigger event. These agreements, too, are fraught with potential pitfalls.We assert that the best pricing mechanism for most buy-sell agreements of successful closely held and family businesses is a single appraiser process where the appraiser is selected by the parties at the outset and provides an appraisal to determine an agreement’s initial pricing. The appraiser is then asked to provide reappraisals each year (or every other year at most) to reset the price for the buy-sell agreement.Determine the terms under which the price will be paid.Many buy-sell agreements call for the price determined under their terms to be paid by the issuance of a promissory note by the company. Quite often, the price determined by appraisal will be the fair market value of the interest. However, many notes defined in buy-sell agreements are not worth par, or their face amounts, so recipients end up getting less than fair market value for their interests.A promissory note might be worth less than par if it has a below market interest rate for notes of comparable risk. Often, there is no security for promissory notes issued in connection with buy-sell agreements, and no protection against future financings that are subordinated, leaving the promissory note less protected.Provide for funding so the contemplated transactions can occur on terms and conditions satisfactory to selling owners and the corporation (or other purchasing owners). This element is important and often overlooked.Life insurance is often considered as a funding mechanism for buy-sell agreements. One big problem is that the only time that life insurance is received is when an insured owner dies. However, death is the least likely trigger event for most companies. Firings, retirings, divorcings, disabilities, and other things happen with far greater frequency.Funding may come from a promissory note as discussed above. It can also come from outside financing if the company is able to obtain such financing. Sinking funds have their own issues, because a selling shareholder was present while any sinking fund was accumulated, and would likely desire to share in its value.Satisfy the business requirements of the parties. While buy-sell agreements have much in common, each business situation is different, and unique parties are involved. In the end, legal counsel must draft buy-sell agreements to address the business issues that are important to the parties. Clearly, establishing and agreeing on the key business issues and having them reflected in the agreement can be difficult. If the owners do not reach agreement on key business issues, no attorney can draft a reasonable document for the parties.All of the potential trigger events discussed above are business issues (and personal issues) for business owners. Other business issues could include the maintenance of relative ownership between groups of shareholders, the admission of additional shareholders, and other issues that may or not relate directly to potential future trigger events. Some family businesses add clauses in the event of a shareholder’s divorce to preclude the shares from being granted to a divorcing spouse who is not of direct lineal descent of the family.Provide support for estate tax planning for the shareholders, whether in family companies or in non-family situations.One client of many years has a buy-sell agreement and the family has engaged in significant gift and estate tax planning. Several years ago, the gift tax returns of the owners of a client company were audited. Agreement could not be reached with the Internal Revenue Service, and the matter proceeded on a path towards Tax Court. One of the key issues in dispute was whether the buy-sell agreement met the requirements of IRS Code Section 2703 (b). After much discussion and preparation for trial, agreement was reached that the buy-sell agreement withstood the exceptions (subparagraph (b)) to the general rule of Code Section 2703:(b) Exceptions Subsection (a) shall not apply to any option, agreement, right, or restriction which meets each of the following requirements: (1) It is a bona fide business arrangement. (2) It is not a device to transfer such property to members of the decedent’s family for less than full and adequate consideration in money or money’s worth. (3) Its terms are comparable to similar arrangements entered into by persons in an arms’ length transaction.As part of the preparations for trial, I was asked to render a supplemental report on behalf of Mercer Capital to assist the court in analyzing the relevant shareholder agreements from business and valuation perspectives. Fortunately, the case settled on the eve of trial with agreement that the relevant agreement satisfied the requirements, and with settlement at the conclusions of fair market value issued by Mercer Capital for the relevant years. The issues raised by the relationship of buy-sell agreements and estate planning are important.Satisfy legal requirements relating to the operation of the agreements. Buy-sell agreements must be drafted such that they are legally binding on the parties to them. In addition, agreements must be drafted to comply with laws and/or regulations that may be applicable to their operation. Business owners must rely on legal counsel regarding such matters.Business owners must agree on the business and valuation issues relevant to their buy-sell agreements. However, those agreements must be memorialized by competent legal counsel, who should be involved in the discussions to begin with, together with estate planning counsel, other financial advisers and a qualified business appraiser.ConclusionBuy-sell agreements are business and legal documents that are created in the context of business, valuation and legal requirements. We need to engage in future thinking in order that our agreements will withstand not only the tests of time, but also potential challenges from the Internal Revenue Service.
An Investor’s View of Major League Sports Franchises: Outsized Returns or a Risky Play?
An Investor’s View of Major League Sports Franchises: Outsized Returns or a Risky Play?
This following article was originally published by The Texas Lawbook.  It has been often discussed, particularly in recent years, that the value of privately held professional sports franchises is a newsworthy item. Analysts, investors, and fans alike have an interest in observing team owners buy and sell teams and watch the prices at which they trade. However, are team owners doing as well as some may portray? How about their investments as compared to their investing peers in the stock markets. We attempt to answer these questions based on some known data sources and return analytics over time. The answers are interesting but not entirely clear. There are two components to an investor’s rate of return: (i) interim returns in the form of cash flows or dividends, and (ii) price appreciation. Many commentators and writers have noted that some major league sports franchises have incurred operating losses in past years. For example, at one point it appeared that the MLB franchises on average had operating losses as players’ salaries increased faster than revenues. This was a big factor underlying the NFL and NHL lockouts in 2011 and 2012. There is a silver lining, however, and that appears to be the price appreciation realized from the increased values of these major league franchises. We traced over time the estimated appreciation (by league) of the values of sports teams, according to Forbes magazine. We also tracked the returns over the same time frames of several familiar equity market indices. The table below summarizes our findings. We tracked this data going all the way back to 1991.  We then sorted the returns over different decades – the 1990s, the 2000s, and our current decade.  We aggregated it for the 25 total years of data.1 We observe that equity markets outperformed league appreciation in the 1990s, but the leagues caught up in the 2000s and 2010s.  The biggest reason for the significant increase in the 2000s and the 2010s (among others) is television contracts – specifically, increases in national TV contracts for the NFL and NBA and regional and local contracts for MLB and NHL (and to a lesser degree the NBA as well). Consider a few examples: The NFL had its national TV contract increase dramatically in the last several renewals, most significantly, the most recent one.  The 2014 season was the first year of the NFL’s nine-year deal with Fox, CBS, and NBC.  The networks will pay about $3.1 billion in rights fees every season or 63% more than the previous TV deal.The NBA, which signed a nine-year deal with ESPN and Turner Broadcasting and other networks, had total fees worth $24 billion in 2014.  This skyrocketed to $3.6 billion a year, up from about $930 million in the contracts reached in 2007.  In addition, NBA teams have benefited from increased local TV rights that have usually doubled or even tripled in annual rights fees in the last 5 years.For MLB and NHL teams, the majority of the TV revenue comes from local TV contracts. These contracts have also appreciated substantially in the last five years increasing 3 to 5 times in comparison to the contracts signed 5 to 7 years ago. This increased TV revenue has been the primary driver of the very strong price appreciation in the 2000s and particularly in last five years (2011-2016). In the last five years (2011-2016), the MLB team values have increased on average 19.8% compounded according to Forbes.  The NBA Forbes value estimates increased by 27.6% for the same period.  The NFL increased 17.4% and the NHL 21.3%.  This short 5-year period has seen the highest percentage increase in the last 25 years.  The compounded increases are 10% to 13% for the four major sports leagues over a 25-year period (1991-2016). In comparison, the DOW increased 7.4% compounded, the NASDQ 10.1% the S&P 500 7.0% and the Russell 2000 8.2%. Therefore, solely from an appreciation point of view, an investment in a major league sports franchise appears to have been a very good return in the last 25 years, especially in the last five years.  Of course, these returns vary by team and nothing is guaranteed.  It is also notable that some teams have incurred operating losses that will offset a significant amount of the total return.  This can impact investments in the form of debt or even capital calls from investors.  This gets even more complicated when considering the value of minority interests in teams whereby the ability to monetize their returns is more uncertain.  In fact, minority interests typically trade (however infrequently) at lower value levels than what the pro-rata value of a franchise would otherwise be worth.  Therefore, appreciation returns that appear positive can come with drawbacks as well.  Critical analysis is important to investors to help them determine if their returns are worth the risks. Mercer Capital has arguably the most expertise in sports valuation and related stadium advisory in the country. For more information, contact one of our professionals.End Note1 We would note that Forbes does not have access to many team financials as teams are closely held (with the notable exception of the Green Bay Packers).Forbes relies on limited data and educated estimates of actual revenues and profits in order to make their estimated values.This is a limiting factor to properly value a single franchise at a single point in time.That said, as part of Forbes’ analysis they have interview access to a number of team owners to test the reasonableness of their valuations and key assumptions.In addition, their estimated values are adjusted year-to-year to account for actual sale prices of teams that sell.This is helpful when observing estimated aggregate values over a long period of time.
Three Reasons to Consider a Valuation of Your FinTech Company
Three Reasons to Consider a Valuation of Your FinTech Company
“Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.”– Oscar Wilde, The Picture of Dorian Gray The above quote seems especially apt in the FinTech industry because the implied values of high-profile, private FinTech companies are often mistakenly reported by the media based on the share price paid by investors in a recently completed funding round. The problem with applying the pricing of the most recent raise to all shares is that the media rarely knows about investor preferences attributable to each funding. As a result, the value of the company is most likely overstated. Capital structures and shareholder preferences matter. Pari passu is not a given although it is often implicitly implied in media reports. Consider the following example. Investors in a late-stage funding invest $100 million in return for 100,000 convertible preferred shares that represent 10% of the company’s post-raise fully diluted shares. The investors also get certain economic, control rights and other preferences with their preferred shares that earlier investors did not obtain. The headline notes that a new FinTech Unicorn has arrived because the implied value is $1 billion based upon the $100 million investment for the 10% interest; however, this simple calculation typically will overstate the Company’s value because the majority of the shares do not have the same rights and preferences as those purchased in the most recent financing round. Valuing companies with limited if any operating history that involves a new technology is inherently difficult. The challenge increases when the subject has a complex capital structure. Nevertheless, valuations—whether reasonable or unreasonable—have very real economic consequences for investors, employees and other stakeholders, especially when new capital is injected into the equation. We are biased, but we believe private FinTech companies will be well served over the long-run to obtain periodic valuations from independent third parties. Reasons to do so include the following.1. To Measure Value Creation Over TimeOne of the best performance scorecard metrics to measure is value creation over extended time periods. For public companies, it is a simple process. Measure a company’s total return (percentage change in share price plus the return from reinvested dividends) and compare it to other benchmark measures such as the broader market, industry, and/or peers. For example, a publicly traded payments company whose shareholders have achieved a one-year total return of 10.0% can note on their scorecard that their performance has outpaced the returns from the S&P 500 and Mercer Capital’s FinTech Payments Index, which rose 4.0% and 4.6%, respectively, in the twelve months ended June 30, 2016.For private companies, annual or more frequent valuations have to be obtained to create a realistic scorecard. Rules-of-thumb exist in every industry, but they are at best approximations and often haphazard guesses that do not take into account the key value drivers of earning power (or cash flow generation), growth, and risk. Some privately held financial services companies like banks may be able to proxy value creation without annual valuations by tracking growth in book value, ROE, and dividend payments, but even for homogenous entities such as banks these metrics say nothing about an institution’s risk profile. FinTech companies with little homogeneity among business models are poorly suited to measure value based upon rules-of-thumbs that are applied to revenues or even EBITDA. Every company is unique, and markets in which companies are valued are not static.Also, there may be a tendency to overlook balance sheets beyond cash because FinTech balance sheets typically do not “drive” earning power as intangible assets, such as customer databases, intellectual property, patents, and the like, are not recorded unless there has been an acquisition. While understandable, ignoring the balance sheet can be a mistake because sometimes there are aspects to it that will impact value.Additionally, dividends (the other element of shareholder return) and dividend paying capacity should be an important value consideration, even though FinTech companies often do not or cannot pay dividends in order to reinvest internally generated capital to fund future growth. Another benefit of the valuation process might be insight that suggests the board should shift to distributions from reinvestment because incremental returns are too low to justify.It is advisable for private FinTech companies to measure value creation by having annual or more frequent valuations performed by an outside third-party. For example, consider Table 1 for Private FinTech Company that tracks returns to shareholders based upon changes in the appraised value of the shares and dividends paid over a three-year period. While the hypothetical 45% total return outwardly appears attractive, there is no context. Comparisons with publicly traded FinTech companies, broad industry indexes and realized returns following an acquisition for public and private companies will provide further relevance to the scorecard (Chart 1).2. For Planning PurposesProjections for an early-stage FinTech company are a given. In theory so too are rising valuations as important milestones, such as targeted market penetration, users, revenues, and EBITDA, are met. Unless the company does not require significant capital and/or internal capital generation is sufficient, the projections should incorporate additional capital raises and expected dilution based upon implicit valuations. On a go forward basis periodic valuations can be overlaid with the initial and any refreshed forecasts to measure how the company is progressing in terms of value creation relative to plan and to alternatives (e.g., a strategy pivot to a collaborative partnership from disruptor). The key is to measure and compare in order to have a contextual perspective to facilitate decision making.3. For Employee Ownership PlansFinTech companies usually attract talent by offering stock ownership so that employees share in the upside should the company’s valuation improve over time. Plus, stock-based compensation lessens a company’s cash needs all else equal. Complex capital structures with private equity investors that have preferences vis-a-vie employees create another potential valuation wrinkle. Returns to the two groups usually will differ. Well documented, periodic valuations are critical. There have been examples where employees have lost money by paying taxes based upon valuations higher than the company realized in a sale. While downside exposure to a company’s faltering performance and/or market conditions is the risk that comes with the potential upside of equity ownership, it is important to have a formalized valuation process to demonstrate compliance with tax and financial reporting regulations. Certainly, scrutiny from auditors, the SEC, and/or the IRS are likely at some point, but very real tax issues also can result from poorly structured or administered equity compensation plans for employees.ConclusionIf you are interested in discussing the valuation needs for your FinTech company, please contact us. Depending upon how it is defined FinTech is a relatively new industry “vertical.” Mercer Capital has been providing valuation and transaction advisory services to a wide swath of financial services companies for over 30 years that runs the gamut from banks to FinTech. Financials are our largest practice vertical. We have a deep bench and would be delighted to assist.This article originally appeared in the Second Quarter 2016 issue of Mercer Capital's Value Focus: FinTech newsletter.Learn More
Does Fair Market Value (and its Associated  Discounts) Avoid the Intent of 2704 and Thus  “Undervalue” Certain Types of Transferred Interests?
Does Fair Market Value (and its Associated Discounts) Avoid the Intent of 2704 and Thus “Undervalue” Certain Types of Transferred Interests?
[August 2016] The IRS released its long expected proposed regulations in regards to Section 2704 on August 2. The substance of this proposal, according to the IRS, is to regulate treatment of entities for estate and gift tax purposes. According to the summary the proposal is:“…concerning the valuation of interests in corporations and partnerships for estate, gift, and generation-skipping transfer (GST) tax purposes. Specifically, these proposed regulations concern the treatment of certain lapsing rights and restrictions on liquidation in determining the value of the transferred interests. These proposed regulations affect certain transferors of interests in corporations and partnerships and are necessary to prevent the undervaluation of such transferred interests.”Before we delve any deeper on this article, let’s clarify a few things up front:We are appraisers, not lawyers and we are neither qualified nor particularly interested in dissecting the proposal from a legal perspective. Our friends in the legal community can address that.This is a proposal that, as of the writing of this article, is not in effect, could change, or might never go into effect. (Nonetheless we aim to comment from a valuation perspective as if it does). With that said – what we hope to do in this post is to (i) give readers some context about the impetus of these proposed Section 2704 changes, (ii) share what these proposed changes are, and (iii) share what this might mean from a valuation standpoint.Background of the ProposalAccording to the IRS, treatment by taxpayers in regards to certain rights and transfers, as well as rulings of the Tax Court in regards to these rights and transfers have allowed taxpayers to avoid application of Section 2704. Representative of this sentiment, Page 6 of the proposal puts it this way when referencing Section 2704(b):“The Treasury Department and the IRS have determined that the current regulations have been rendered substantially ineffective in implementing the purpose and intent of the statute by changes in state laws and by other subsequent developments.”The areas that the IRS cites as no longer ineffective fall into three primary areas:2704(a). Specifically the area covering so-called “Deathbed Transfers” – whereby liquidation rights lapse upon death. The IRS cites Estate of Harrison v. Commissioner as an example of this. The IRS claims that such transfers generally have minimal economic effects, but result in a transfer tax value that is based on less than the value of the interest.2704(b). Inter-family transfers and specifically restrictions on liquidation for family interest transfers. Reasons for this include that courts have concluded that Section 2704 applies to restrictions on the ability to liquidate an entire entity, and not on the ability to liquidate a transferred interest in that entity. Also the IRS says state laws and utilization of “assignees” have allowed taxpayers avoid 2704.2704(b). Granting of insubstantial interests to non-family members (such as a charity or employee) to avoid application of the statute. The IRS says this needs to be changed, because, in reality, such non-family interests generally do not constrain a family’s ability to remove a restriction on an individual interest.Proposed Changes and AmendmentsIn light of this perceived avoidance and ineffectiveness of certain provisions in 2704, the IRS has proposed a number of new regulations including:Change the definition of a “controlled entity” to be viewed through the lens of an entire family including lineal descendants as opposed to individual(s).Amend the regulations to address what constitutes control of an LLC or other entity that is not a corporation, partnership, or limited partnership.Amend the regulations to limit the use of eliminating or lapsing rights (voting or liquidation rights) and limit the exception to transfers occurring three (3) years or more before death.Ignore transfer restrictions for minority interests and thus assume that they would be marketable, regardless of governing documents and/or state laws.Ignore the presence of non-family members with less than 10% of the overall equity value.Valuation ImpactThe IRS is not proposing changing the definition of fair market value. However, when applying fair market value under the constructs as contemplated in the proposed 2704 changes, there would be a smaller (or perhaps no) value delineation for minority interests as compared to enterprise value of an entity. According to the IRS’s position, this would prevent taxpayers from “undervaluing” transferred interests among family members. This, of course, runs in stark contrast to the marketplace, of which fair market value is supposed to be a reflection. The marketplace’s long track record on this is abundantly clear - it differentiates for minority interests as compared to the value of entire enterprises. Thus the proposed regulations essentially circumvent the levels of value for family members as defined in a “controlled entity.”If the proposal is adopted as contemplated, there will be a powerful incentive for families with businesses and investment holding entities to initiate or complete transfers before these regulations take effect (which is thought to be December 2016). If Mercer Capital can be of any assistance in light of this development, please contact us.
Fairness Considerations for Mergers of Equals
Fairness Considerations for Mergers of Equals
When asked about his view of a tie years before the NCAA instituted the playoff format in the 1990s, Coach Bear Bryant famously described the outcome as “kissing your sister.” If he were a portfolio manager holding a position in a company that entered into a merger of equals (MOE), his response might be the same. Wall Street generally does not like MOEs unless the benefits are utterly obvious and/or one or both parties had no other path to create shareholder value. In some instances, MOEs may be an intermediate step to a larger transaction that unlocks value. National Commerce Financial Corporation CEO Tom Garrott once told me that part of his rationale for entering into a $1.6 billion MOE with CCB Financial Corp. in 2000 that resulted in CCB owning 47% of the company was because bankers told him he needed a bigger retail footprint to elicit top dollar in a sale. It worked. National Commerce agreed to be acquired by SunTrust Banks, Inc. in 2004 in a deal that was valued at $7 billion.Kissing Your Sister?MOEs, like acquisitions, typically look good in a PowerPoint presentation, but can be tough to execute. Busts from the past include Daimler-Benz/Chrysler Corporation and AOL/Time Warner. Among banks the 1994 combination of Cleveland-based Society Corporation and Albany-based KeyCorp was considered to be a struggle for several years, while the 1995 combination of North Carolina-based Southern National Corp. and BB&T Financial Corporation was deemed a success.The arbiter between success and failure for MOEs typically is culture, unless the combination was just a triumph of investment banking and hubris, as was the case with AOL/Time Warner. The post-merger KeyCorp struggled because Society was a centralized, commercial-lending powerhouse compared to the decentralized, retail-focused KeyCorp. Elements of both executive management teams stuck around. Southern National, which took the BB&T name, paid the then legacy BB&T management to go away. At the time there was outrage expressed among investors at the amount, but CEO John Allison noted it was necessary to ensure success with one management team in charge. Likewise, National Commerce’s Garrott as Executive Chairman retained the exclusive option to oust CCB’s Ernie Roessler, who became CEO of the combined company, at the cost of $10 million if he chose to do so. Garrett exercised the option and cut the check in mid-2003 three years after the MOE was consummated.Fairness Opinions for MOEsMOEs represent a different proposition for the financial advisor in terms of rendering advice to the Board. An MOE is not the same transaction as advising a would-be seller about how a take-out price will compare to other transactions or the company’s potential value based upon management’s projections. The same applies to advising a buyer regarding the pricing of a target. In an MOE (or quasi-MOE) both parties give up 40-50% ownership for future benefits with typically little premium if one or both are publicly traded. Plus there are the social issues to navigate.While much of an advisor’s role will be focused on providing analysis and advice to the Board leading up to a meaningful corporate decision, the fairness opinion issued by the advisor (and/or second advisor) has a narrow scope. Among other things a fairness opinion does not opine:The course of action the Board should take;The contemplated transaction represents the highest obtainable value;Where a security will trade in the future; andHow shareholders should vote. What is opined is the fairness of the transaction from a financial point of view of the company’s shareholders as of a specific date and subject to certain assumptions. If the opinion is a sell-side opinion, the advisor will opine as to the fairness of the consideration received. The buy-side opinion will opine as to the fairness of the consideration paid. A fairness opinion for each respective party to an MOE will opine as to the fairness of the exchange ratio because MOEs largely entail stock-for-stock structures. Explaining the benefits of an MOE and why ultimately the transaction is deemed to be fair in the absence of a market premium can be challenging. The pending MOE among Talmer Bancorp Inc. (45%) and Chemical Financial Corp. (55%) is an example. When the merger was announced on January 26, the implied value for Talmer was $15.64 per share based upon the exchange ratio for Chemical shares (plus a small amount of cash). Talmer’s shares closed on January 25, 2016 at $16.00 per share. During the call to discuss the transaction, one analyst described the deal as a “take under” while a large institutional investor said he was “incredibly disappointed” and accused the Board of not upholding its fiduciary duty. The shares dropped 5% on the day of the announcement to close at $15.19 per share. Was the transaction unfair and did the Board breach its fiduciary duties (care, loyalty and good faith) as the institutional shareholder claimed? It appears not. The S-4 notes Talmer had exploratory discussions with other institutions, including one that was “substantially larger”; yet none were willing to move forward. As a result an MOE with Chemical was crafted, which includes projected EPS accretion of 19% for Talmer, 8% for Chemical, and a 100%+ increase in the cash dividend to Talmer shareholders. Although the fairness opinions did not opine where Chemical’s shares will trade in the future, the bankers’ analyses noted sizable upside if the company achieves various peer-level P/Es. (As of mid-July 2016, Talmer’s shares were trading around $20 per share.) Fairness is not defined legally. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines “fair” as “just, equitable and agreeing with what is thought to be right or acceptable.” Fairness when judging a corporate transaction is a range concept. Some transactions are not fair, some are in the range—reasonable, and others are very fair. The concept of “fairness” is especially well-suited for MOEs. MOEs represent a combination of two companies in which both shareholders will benefit from expense savings, revenue synergies and sometimes qualitative attributes. Value is an element of the fairness analysis, but the relative analysis takes on more importance based upon a comparison of contributions of revenues, earnings, capital and the like compared to pro forma ownership.Investment Merits to ConsiderA key question to ask as part of the fairness analysis: are shareholders better off or at least no worse for exchanging their shares for shares in the new company and accepting the execution risks? In order to answer the question, the investment merits of the pro forma company have to be weighed relative to each partner’s attributes.Profitability and Revenue Trends. The analysis should consider each party’s historical and projected revenues, margins, operating earnings, dividends and other financial metrics. Issues to be vetted include customer concentrations, the source of growth, the source of any margin pressure and the like. The quality of earnings and a comparison of core vs. reported earnings over a multi-year period should be evaluated.Expense Savings. How much and when are the savings expected to be realized. Do the savings come disproportionately from one party? Are the execution risks high? How does the present value of the after-tax expense savings compare to the pre-merger value of the two companies on a combined basis?Pro Forma Projected Performance. How do the pro forma projections compare with each party’s stand-alone projections? Does one party sacrifice growth or margins by partnering with a slower growing and/or lower margin company?Per Share Accretion. Both parties of an MOE face ownership dilution. What is obtained in return in terms of accretion (or dilution) in EBITDA per share (for non-banks), tangible BVPS, EPS, dividends and the like?Distribution Capacity. One of the benefits of a more profitable company should be (all else equal) the capacity to return a greater percentage of earnings (or cash flow) to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.Capital Structure. Does the pro forma company operate with an appropriate capital structure given industry norms, cyclicality of the business and investment needs to sustain operations? Is there an issue if one party to an MOE is less levered and the other is highly levered?Balance Sheet Flexibility. Related to the capital structure should be a detailed review of the pro forma company’s balance sheet that examines such areas as liquidity, funding sources, and the carrying value of assets such as deferred tax assets.Consensus Analyst Estimates. This can be a big consideration in terms of Street reaction to an MOE for public companies. If pro forma EPS estimates for both parties comfortably exceed Street estimates, then the chances for a favorable reaction to an MOE announcement improve. If accretion is deemed to be marginal for the risk assumed or the projections are not viewed as credible, then reaction may be negative.Valuation. The valuation of the combined company based upon pro forma per share metrics should be compared with each company’s current and historical valuations and a relevant peer group. Also, while no opinion is expressed about where the pro forma company’s shares will trade in the future, the historical valuation metrics provide a context to analyze a range of shareholder returns if earning targets are met under various valuation scenarios. This is particularly useful when comparing the analysis with each company on a stand-alone basis.Share Performance. Both parties should understand the source of their shares and the other party’s share performance over multi-year holding periods. For example, if the shares have significantly outperformed an index over a given holding period, is it because earnings growth accelerated? Or, is it because the shares were depressed at the beginning of the measurement period? Likewise, underperformance may signal disappointing earnings, or it may reflect a starting point valuation that was unusually high.Liquidity of the Shares. How much is liquidity expected to improve because of the MOE? What is the capacity to sell shares issued in the merger? SEC registration and even NASADQ and NYSE listings do not guarantee that large blocks can be liquidated efficiently.Strategic Position. Does the pro forma company have greater strategic value as an acquisition candidate (or an acquirer) than the merger partners individually?ConclusionThe list does not encompass every question that should be asked as part of the fairness analysis for an MOE, but it points to the importance of vetting the combined company’s investment attributes as part of addressing what shareholders stand to gain relative to what is relinquished. We at Mercer Capital have over 30 years of experience helping companies and financial institutions assess significant transactions, including MOEs. Do not hesitate to contact us to discuss a transaction or valuation issue in confidence.
Analyzing Financial Projections as Part of the ESOP Fiduciary Process | Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees
Analyzing Financial Projections as Part of the ESOP Fiduciary Process | Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees
This article first appeared as a whitepaper in a series of reports titled Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees. To view or download the original report as a PDF, click here. This publication provides general insight about emerging issues and topics discussed in recent forums and events sponsored by the ESOP Association (“EA”), The National Center for Employee Ownership (“NCEO”) and elsewhere. Much of the current discussion is related to general valuation discipline, but none are new to a longstanding agenda within the ESOP community. Heightened Department of Labor (“DOL”) attention and the recent settlement agreement concerning the Sierra Aluminum case are driving renewed discussion of numerous critical topics within the ESOP fiduciary domain. All guidance, perspective and other information contained in this publication is provided for information purposes only. The issues and treatments highlighted in this publication do not produce the same response from all ESOP professionals and valuation practitioners. Certain treatments and perspectives contained herein lack consensus in the valuation profession and may be addressed or treated using alternative rationales. This publication is not held out as being the position of or recommended treatment endorsed by the EA or the NCEO. The purpose of this publication is to alert and inform ESOP stakeholders and fiduciaries regarding the rising standards of practice and prudence in the valuation of ESOP owned entities.IntroductionIn recent years there has been increasing concern among ESOP sponsors and professional advisors (trustees, TPAs, business appraisers, legal counsel) regarding the scrutiny of the DOL, the Employee Benefits Security Administration (“EBSA”), and the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”). These entities (and agencies thereof) are tasked with ensuring that ESOPs comply with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (“ERISA”) as well as with various provisions of the federal income tax code concerning qualified retirement plans (including ESOPs). Citing concerns for poor quality and inconsistency in business appraisals, the DOL has sought in recent years to expand the meaning of “fiduciary” under ERISA to include business appraisers. In the most recent forums of exchange and deriving from various court actions, there are numerous areas of concern that DOL/EBSA appear to have regarding ESOP valuations. These areas of focus include but are not limited to:Valuation Issues Receiving Recent Attention and ScrutinyThe use of financial projections in ESOP valuationThe prevalence and manifestation of conflicts of interest concerning pre- and post-transaction advisory servicesThe use and application of control premiums in ESOP valuationThe valuation of and implications stemming from seller financing used in a great many transactions now coming under reviewThe poor quality of ESOP valuation reports and the attending inconsistencies between narrative explanations and methodological execution; and, The lack of or inconsistent consideration of ESOP repurchase obligation and how it interacts with ESOP valuationThese topics have received heightened attention from numerous committees of the ESOP Association including the Advisory Committees on Valuation, Administration, Fiduciary Issues, Finance, and Legislative & Regulatory. This paper will focus on the use of financial projections in ESOP valuations. While all of the cited issues are of importance, the use (or misuse) of financial projections is often the most direct cause of over- or under-valuation in ESOPs. Other Mercer Capital publications provide insight regarding control premiums, the market approach, and other important ESOP valuation topics.Projections Used In ESOP Valuations: Assessing Growth Rate Assumptions In ValuationBusiness appraisers who practice valuation using one or more credentials in the field are required to adhere to their respective practice standards (ASA, AICPA, NACVA, CFAI). Additionally, there are overarching standards and guidance that generally dictate to and govern the valuation profession and the general considerations and content of a business valuation. The Appraisal Standards Board of The Appraisal Foundation promulgates the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (“USPAP”) and the IRS issued Revenue Ruling 59-60 (“RR59-60”) more than 50 years ago.Collectively, these standards and protocols provide a basic outline for procedural disciplines, analytical methodologies, and reporting conventions. Specificity on the disciplines and procedures for vetting a financial projection (and growth rates in general) are generally lacking in the body of valuation standards, but that does not exempt appraisers and trustees from the core principle that a valuation must collectively (and in its constituent parts) constitute informed judgment, reasonableness and common sense.Traditional financial and economic comparative analysis suggest vetting a projection by way of studying it from numerous perspectives:How do the projections compare to the historical and prevailing financial performance of the subject enterprise being valued (“relative to itself over time”)?How do the forecasted results compare to the past and expected performance of peers, competitors, the industry, and the marketplace in general (“relative to others over time”)?How do the projections reflect the specific outlook and capacity of the subject enterprise (“relative to its specific opportunity”)?The answers to these questions provide the appraiser a foundation upon which to construct the other required modeling elements in the valuation. An appraiser may elect to disregard projections in the valuation process in situations where forecasted outcomes are deemed beyond the organic and/or funded capacities, competence, and/or opportunity of the subject enterprise. An appraiser may elect to consider justifiable risk and/or probability assessments, among other adjustments, that serve to hedge the projections and their respective influence on the conclusions of the valuation report. Regarding valuation and the general concern for rendering valuations that heighten an ESOP trustee’s anxiety for a sustainable ESOP benefit over time, many appraisers elect to capture only proven performance capacity, avoiding the counting of eggs with questionable fertility. If today’s projection proves excessive in the light of future days (when the DOL/EBSA comes calling), the concern for a prohibited transaction rises and poses significant risk and potentially fatal consequences for the plan and the parties involved.Discrete Projections versus Implied ProjectionsA complete, formal appraisal opinion requires the consideration of three core valuation approaches. These approaches are the Cost, Income, and Market Approaches. Generally speaking, valuations of business enterprises using the Income or Market Approaches contain either an explicit projection in the methodology or capture an underlying implicit projection embedded in (or implied by) a singular perpetual growth rate assumption or in a singular capitalization metric. Appraisers and reviewers that fail to recognize this are simply blind to the basic financial mechanics of income capitalization. Accordingly, the concern for projections, in the view of this practitioner, extends beyond the discrete modeling of cash flow to the broader domain of growth in general. For the sake of further discussion, assume the following comments relate specifically and only to the Income Approach and its underlying methods.Discounted Cash Flow Method versus Single-Period CapitalizationThe size and sophistication of the subject enterprise often dictates whether or not an appraiser will enjoy the benefit of management-prepared projections. Projections are often crafted for purposes of promoting operational and marketing outcomes, or for satisfying the reporting requirements that many companies have with their lenders, shareholders, suppliers and other stakeholders. In cases where the subject enterprise is small and its performance subject to unpredictable patterns, appraisers commonly employ a single period capitalization of cash flow or earnings. In lieu of a series of discrete cash flows projected over the typical five-year future time horizon, the appraiser simply employs a measure of current or average performance and applies a single-period capitalization rate (or capitalization multiple as the case may be) in order to convert a base measure of cash flow directly into an indication of value. Seeking not to speculate on a finite sequence of future growth rates, many appraisers employ a rule-of-thumb mentality by correlating cash flow growth to a macroeconomic, inflationary, or industry-motivated rate, often ranging from 3% to 5%. In many instances this could be appropriate; in others it could reflect surprisingly little attention regarding the most basic long-term market externalities and/or internal opportunities of the subject company.The veil of a single-period capitalization approach does not relieve the appraiser from examining the various combinations of growth that could reasonably apply to the base measure of cash flow assumed in an appraisal. Many appraisers are of the mind that in the absence of management-prepared projections, no discrete projection can be developed and thus no Discounted Cash Flow Method can be employed. In lieu of fleshing out the dynamics of operational cash flow, the required capital investments, working capital needs, or the cash flow benefits deriving therefrom, the appraiser simply defaults to the time-honored single period capitalization of cash flow and calls it a day. The binary position that an appraiser cannot prepare cash flow projections lacks credibility and in some cases is simply flawed thinking. Furthermore, any appraiser that applies a perpetual growth rate assumption to develop a capitalization rate is, in fact, asserting a projection over some projection horizon. This is the simple and inescapable mathematical construct that is the Gordon Growth Rate Model. With all due respect and concern about projections - appraisers, trustees and regulators must recognize the inherent projection represented by a perpetual growth rate assumption in a single-period capitalization method. In essence, there is no income approach without either an explicit or implicit projection of future cash flows.Performing Due Diligence On Company Issued ProjectionsImagine you are a trustee tasked with reviewing an ESOP valuation prepared by the plan’s “financial advisor.” Business appraisers in their role as the trustee’s financial advisor issue opinions of value they believe to be supported by the facts and circumstances, but ultimately the appraisal of the plan assets is the trustee’s responsibility. How can the stakeholders and fiduciaries of an ESOP gain understanding and comfort in projections prepared by the Company and employed by the appraiser?The foundation begins with the general process of examining historic and prospective growth. Company projections must make sense to gain inclusion in the valuation of an ESOPowned company. A disconnect or sudden shift (whether in magnitude, trend or directionality) in expected performance is a red flag that requires specific explanation. Absent a sound rationale for a significant change in the pattern of future performance, projections that seem too good (or too bad) to be true must be reconciled with management and potentially disregarded in the appraisal process.Not all projections are created equally. Some are prepared for budgetary purposes and are constrained to a single year of outlook. Projections may be prepared for many reasons including the study of operational capacity, financial feasibility concerning capital investments, debt servicing and lender requirements, sales force management, incentive compensation, and many other reasons. Projections may be the product of a bottom-up process (originating in the operational ranks of the business) or may originate as a top-down exercise (descending from the C suite).Business appraisers cannot be indiscriminate in their employment of forward-looking financial information. Understanding the goals, intentions, motivations, and possible shortcomings of a budget or projection is vital to assessing the viability of a direct or supporting role for the projections in the valuation modeling. The nature and maturity of the business are also significant to understanding and troubleshooting a projection. For the sake of further commentary we will assume that most ESOP companies are relatively mature and not subject to the intricacies and uncertainties of valuing a start-up business (albeit, even mature business can experience significant swings in business activity).Projection Due Diligence InquiriesWho prepared the projections?What is the functional use or purpose of the projection?How experienced is the Company in preparing projections?When were the projections prepared?Do the projections incorporate increased (new) business, and if so, in what manner is the new business being generated?Do the projections reflect the discontinuation of specific segments of the revenue stream?Are the financial projections reconciled to or generated from a meaningful expression of unit volume and pricing?Does the company operate as the exclusive or concentrated agent for certain suppliers and/or customers?How does the company’s current projection reconcile to past projections?How closely does the company’s most recent actual performance compare to the prior year’s projection?Does the projection depict a transition in industry or economic cycles that may justify near-term abrupt shifts in expected outcomes?How comprehensive are the projections and the supporting documentation?What are some typical warning signs that a projection may be too aggressive or pessimistic?Who prepared the projections?A bottom-up process whereby front-line managers project their respective business results, which are then combined to create a consolidated projection, is often the most informative projection. Motivation mindset can be important as many projections are designed to “under-promise” results. Conversely, some projections are deliberately overstated to impart a mission of growth or goal-oriented outcomes. Projections that emanate and evolve through multiple levels of an organization are typically subject to more checks and balances than projections that originate in the vacuum of a single executive’s office. Conversely, such a process can also depict an organizational mob mentality that could distort reasonable expectations.A CFO’s budget may vary significantly from the sales projection of a sales manager or the projections of a senior executive. In some cases, an appraiser may review projections prepared for a lender that vary from a strategic plan projection. Often the differences can be reconciled. Projections prepared for external stakeholders such as lenders and as communicated to shareholders and possibly endorsed by a board of directors are likely to be the most relevant and appropriate for the valuation.If numerous projections exist, the trustee and appraiser are best advised to inquire about the outlook that best reflects a consensus of the most likely outcome as opposed to aspirational projections that are tied to new and/or speculative changes in the business model. In a recent engagement, a client was deploying significant capital to extend core competencies into adjacent markets. Rather than the hockey stick of growth most typical of such projections, this client’s net cash flows were relatively neutral in the foreseeable future because they included significant capital and working capital investment, which effectively paid for increased business volume. The premise behind their strategy was simply one of being larger and more diverse under the assumption that size and diversity facilitated a less risky business proposition and a broader range of potential long-term outcomes for the business.What is the functional use or purpose of the projection?Functional use is often linked to who prepares the projection. Be wary of projections that may intentionally (or as a byproduct of purpose) under or over shoot actual expected forecast results. In many cases a bottom-up projection process receives the review of senior management before becoming a functional element of business planning and accountability.How experienced is the Company in preparing projections?Are past projections reconciled to actual results with adequate explanation for variances? Firms with consistent and organized processes often produce more informative projections. Granted, a company may consistently under or over perform their projection. The quality of a projection may be better measured by its consistency over time than by its ultimate accuracy in a given year. One clue to the experience and care taken in the projection process is the model underlying the projection itself. For example, was the forecast model developed using numerous discrete modeling assumptions (such as year-to-year growth, and year-to-year margin) or from more global assumptions that are carried across all years in the projections? While modeling complexity can serve to obscure and is not automatically a sign of a well-developed projection, the inability of a projection model to be adapted quickly to alternative scenarios and assumptions may be a sign that the model was not studied for its sensitivity and reasonableness. A projection that appears to be “living” and easily modified could be a sign that the company actually uses the projection and modifies it in real time to assess variance and to modify assumptions as business conditions evolve and change. Appraisers and trustees should empower themselves with the ability to study the sensitivity and outcomes of a projection. Projections that lack detailed growth and margin details (year-to-year and CAG) should be replicated and/or reverse engineered in some fashion to facilitate basic stress testing and/or sensitivity analysis before the appraiser simply accepts the projections.When were the projections prepared?In general, valuation standards call for the consideration of all known or reasonably knowable information (financial, operational, strategically or otherwise) as of the effective date of the appraisal, which for most ESOPs is the end of the plan year. As a matter of practicality, financial statements (audits and tax returns) are not prepared for many months subsequent to the plan year end. Likewise, projections are often compiled in the first few months of the following year and may be influenced by the momentum of activity after the valuation date.Appraisers typically cite financial information delivered after the valuation date to be known or knowable and projections, while potentially exposed to a hint of subsequent influence, are often integrated without much question regarding their timeliness to the valuation date. In many cases, clients struggle to get information to us in order for their 5500s to be filed in a timely fashion (typically July 31st). In most cases we find that projections prepared after the end of the plan year are perfectly fine to employ. We inquire with management if there are aspects of the projection that were influenced by subsequent events and if so, with what degree of certainty could the subsequent event or activity have been expected at the valuation date. In some situations it may be advisable or reasonable to alter a projection’s initial year due to subsequent influences; typically the more distant years of a projection follow a pattern of knowable expectation unless there has been a material subsequent event that alters the global posture of the business. If a material subsequent event occurs that is not factored into the projections, then as a matter of common sense, the appraiser may elect not to perform a DCF, or better yet, may request that the projections be modified to take the event into financial consideration so that a DCF can be more accurately informed regarding changes in business posture.Do the projections incorporate increased (new) business, and if so, in what manner is the new business being generated?If a projection reflects a pattern of significant change in business activity, it is vital to consider whether new business represents an extension or replication of past expansions. If the company has proven the ability to expand and absorb new business (territory, staffing, productive capacity, etc.) then a projection depicting such an increase is likely reasonable, but should be gauged by past similar experiences whenever possible. And, any business expansion must be reflected in the investment and working capital charges applied to develop net cash flows. We refer to this as “buying the growth” – remember there is no free lunch.Projections with significant topline and profit growth must reflect adequate investment. This investment may take the form of the organic investment in the existing business lines or strategically by way of acquisition. If the projections include a speculative expansion into new revenue areas, the appraiser should properly assess the likelihood of successfully achieving the projection. Business extensions into logical adjacencies which leverage pre-existing supply and customer relationships may be more believable than the widget company whose projections include entry into the healthcare industry.In cases where projections include speculative ventures, the appraiser has numerous potential treatments that can temper speculative (high-risk) contributions, essentially replicating the framework applied in the valuation and capital raising processes for start-ups or early-stage companies. In some cases the appraiser may request the projection be revised to eliminate contributions from new growth projects that lack adequate investment or are simply too speculative to consider until they become observable in the reported financial results of the business. In some rare cases, not only is the projection hard to believe, but concerns are compounded by the risky and foolish deployment of capital. Betting the farm on the next reinvention of the wheel is not the making of a sustainable ESOP company.Perhaps it’s a dirty little secret in the hard-to-value world of closely held equity, but valuations using the standard of fair market value (as called for under DOL guidance) are inherently lagging in nature and typically less volatile than is the stock market or the public peers to which a company may be benchmarked. This is generally a function of regression to the mean captured in virtually every conservatively constructed projection and DCF model. The terminal value of a DCF is effectively a deferred single period capitalization using the Gordon Growth Model and often comprises 50% or more of the total value indicated under the method. Near-term performance swings (whether favorable or not) get smoothed out in the math of the terminal value calculation. As depicted in the appended growth scenarios and projection modifications, the regression of future performance to a targeted benchmark can have a similar influence on valuation as the old-guard habit of using historical averages in a single period capitalization method. The primary valuation differences between such a DCF and single period capitalization stem from the specific cash flows during the discrete projection period (years one through five).Do the projections reflect the discontinuation of specific segments of the revenue stream?A sound reason for employing a DCF model is to capture the pro forma performance of a business based on its going-forward revenue base. Most mid to large sized businesses, particularly mature ESOP companies, experience contraction and rationalization of business lines and markets over time. In many cases, the valuation might reasonably improve based on the discontinuation of unprofitable operations and the recapturing of poorly deployed capital. However, care must be taken to understand how all P&L accounts from revenue down to profit are affected by changes in facilities, products, services, staffing, etc. Projections that pretend unsupportable improvement by way of the deletion of a relatively small portion of the business lines are inclined to excessive optimism and may suggest the belief in bigger issues that management deems too daunting to fix. Regarding profitability, so-called “addition through subtraction” is similar to the concern public market investors have with public companies that cut expense merely to manufacture earnings in the near term.As the maxim goes, you can’t cut your way to success in the business world.Are the financial projections reconciled to or generated from a meaningful expression of unit volume and pricing?Financial projections that lack an operational perspective can be difficult to assess. Not all business are margin based, many are spread based – meaning that profits are more of a function of a nominal spread over cost as opposed to some percentage of sales. This is particularly true of service businesses, financial services entities, and commodity driven operations. Accordingly, neither past nor future performance can be properly understood without some idea of how much stuff is getting sold and at what price. In many cases, the required comfort level of a projection simply cannot be reached without it. Breaking revenue into primary volume and price components, as well as further into its departmental or categorical groupings, allows appraisers and trustees a better understanding of the projection and its relation to past performance and market expectations. Revenue per full-time equivalent employee, units produced per labor hour and many other performance metrics are helpful in teasing out reality from a potentially fictional projection.Does the company operate as the exclusive or concentrated agent for certain suppliers and/or customers?Our comments here exclude the consideration of risk associated with high levels of concentration on the rain-making parts of a business – such considerations are often tackled in the appraiser’s assessment of the cost of capital by way of firm-specific risk.Many dealerships, distributors, parts manufacturers, fabricators and service companies owe their existence to market demand created by their suppliers and customers. Many companies service the needs of customers and suppliers by effectively outsourcing some aspect of their respective industry model to an external provider. For example, a producer of value-added materials may use an external company to provide sales and logistical support to get product to its end users (i.e. classic bulk breaking, repacking and transportation). Regardless of which leg of the multi-leg industry the subject business may represent, the assessment of projected growth should include a consideration of what is happening to suppliers and customers (the other legs of a common stool). This same path of inquiry serves the dual purpose of understanding the risk side of the valuation equation. If these multiple legs of consideration don’t reconcile, the projection could prove too unstable for use in the valuation.How does the company’s current projection reconcile to past projections? How closely does the company’s most recent actual performance compare to the prior year’s projection?Studying projection variance can be a highly useful tool in communicating about value and in assessing the correlation between expectations and actual results. Let’s face it - we all like it when people do what they say they are going to do. But the first thing we know about any projection today is that it will be wrong tomorrow. Variances need to be explained and reconciled against the continuing willingness of the appraiser (and the trustee) to employ projections moving forward. Providing financial feedback to management and the trustee during the process of due diligence and in the form of a valuation can help refine the projection process over time. Just as we reserve the right to improve how we do things in the valuation world, so too must our clients have the leeway to refine and improve their processes.Valuation is a forward looking (ex-ante) discipline. History can be highly instructive regarding how projections are scrutinized in real time. Projections that under-promise and over-deliver tend to undervalue companies in real time. Conversely, projections that over-promise and under-deliver can lead to an over-statement of value. In the case of the later occurrence, most appraisers operate under the axiom of “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.” Ultimately, attempts at value engineering via optimistic projections need to be balanced with an equal measure of devil’s advocacy from both appraiser and trustee. Ultimately, a DCF model views the impact of any projection through a risk-adjusted lens. The process of hedging a projection generally begins with an observation of historical variances in projected performance and actual results over time, with the primary emphasis place on most recent periods. Projections that appear to overshoot are often hedged either through risk assessment, probability factoring, or a more exotic multi-outcome analysis.Does the projection depict a transition in industry or economic cycles that may justify near-term abrupt shifts in expected outcomes?In recent decades the concept of the traditional five-year business cycle lost favor in some circles. Thought evolution evolved to encompass a lengthier cycle of ten years, mitigated volatility (not so high and not so low as in the past), higher fundamental causation (such as globalization) versus the classical cyclical drivers (such as swings in productivity), continuing evolution of the information sector, disruptive technologies, and since the early 2000s, the persistence of and sensitivity to geopolitical and terrorist events. Then along came the debt crisis followed by the great recession. Lessons of business cycles past have now garnered renewed attention and distant economic history seemed more relevant despite the modernization, globalization and regulation of the economy.Presently, we are witness to a reasonably stable economy that is slowly being weaned from years of fiscal and monetary life support and subsidization. For us business appraisers, we are beginning to lock in on the new norms of our clients’ businesses. For the last many years, our clients were reticent to speculate on a projection (“no visibility”). Many clients recall with anger and humility the great glory projected from atop the last peak cycle in 2006. Almost a decade later, many have finally re-achieved their former glory. Many others can only look up from the corporate grave. From this point forward we can only assume that some version of the business cycle is still with us. Many are now disposed to the concept of a prolonged period of relatively modest and unevenly distributed economic performance, similar to the patterns demonstrated by Japan and characterized as “secular stagnation.” The academicians can argue about how to brand it; valuations professionals and ESOP Trustees are faced with how to consider it in our valuations.Speaking from personal experience, there is a greater appreciation for industry cycles as opposed to macroeconomic cycles. Given such, we see companies vacillate between boom and bust based on numerous underlying elements and drivers that are not purely correlated to the overall economy. Recall the classic business cycle (peak / contraction / trough / expansion / peak). Appraisers and trustees must be attentive and weary of projections that cannot be supported by reasonable facts and circumstances. Some may wonder - when are projections unrealistic? The truthful answer often includes the echo: “not sure, but I know it when I see it.”Companies emerging from the trough of a business/industry cycle may have unusually robust projections. High growth during a period of recovery does not constitute grounds for the dismissal of the projection. Likewise, declining growth from a peak level of performance is not necessarily overly pessimistic. As discussed in the growth scenarios studied in the appended examples, regression to a mean level of future expectation can be achieved in varying ways. The concern for appraisers and trustees alike is the comfort and common sense of near-term expectations relative to recent performance and the level of steady-state performance assumed in the terminal value modeling of the DCF. Ex-post and ex-ante trend analysis, as well as benchmarking to relevant indices from both public and private sectors is vital to establishing the context of a specific projection.On the weight of evidence and common sense, if a projection is highly contrary to external expectations and lacks symmetry with the proven capabilities of the company, appraisers and trustees are cautioned from directly using the projection. An alternative approach for employing the projection is iterating the discount rate and terminal value modeling assumptions required to equate the DCF value indication to value indications developed from other methods (past and present). There are many instances when data lacks reliability during a given period or cycle. In such cases we tend to study the information and reconcile it to the alternative valuation results deemed more reliable. In this fashion we alert the report reviewer that projections exist that may appear contrary to the weight of history and/or external expectations.How Comprehensive are the Projections and the Supporting Documentation?Are the projections lacking detail and limited in supporting documentation? Projections that are not integrated into a full set of forward looking financial statements and that lack explanation for critical inputs may be unreliable or require significant augmentation before being integrated into a DCF valuation model. As a matter of practicality, many companies do not project more than a simple income statement. Does the lack of a balance sheet and a cash flow statement automatically exclude the projection from consideration? Not in my view, however, under many circumstances there could be a need for augmentation to consider numerous significant aspects required to develop the typical DCF model. These considerations include:Capital expenditures, which initially decrease cash flow before generating the returns that constitute future growth. Not only is the dollar amount a significant consideration, but the capacity/volume effect of physical additions relates to future growth modeling.Incremental working capital requirements, which typically absorb a portion of growth dollars in perpetuation of higher operating activity, or which may accumulate on the balance sheet in a downturn when demand for financial resources can temporarily decline.In cases where a DCF is used to directly value the equity of an enterprise, changes in net debt must be captured. Are the cash flows sufficient to cover the company’s term debt and line of credit obligations? Are new sources of debt capital required to support capital and working capital grow?Collectively, these cash flow attributes can have a significant effect on the discrete cash flows of an entity during the projection. Absent a balance sheet and/or cash flow statement, the impact of these considerations may be difficult to properly assess. In cases where the business is not deploying significant new capital and the projection is following a more or less mature pattern, capital expenditures and incremental working capital may be easily determined based on historical norms and comparative analysis with peer data. Accordingly, a full detailed projection of the balance sheet may not be required to develop reasonable modeling and outcomes. As always, a vetted and complete projection of the financial statements is desirable. Supporting documentation can take numerous forms. Reconciliation of modeling assumptions to external drivers, operating activities, market pricing, throughput capacity, supplier expectations and trends, bellwether industry peers and market participants, downstream and upstream expectations and many other supporting considerations is always helpful but generally lacking for many projections. Often, a review of the projections using such benchmarks leads to a modification or adjustment of the projections by management. In this fashion, the appraiser’s and/or trustee’s review serves to effectively adjust the projections before and/ or during their use in a DCF model – thus the need for a flexible and adaptive modeling platform built from the projection.What are some typical warning signs that a projection may be too aggressive or pessimistic?A baseline for assessing reasonableness or believability is always a good first step. A graphic representation of revenue, EBITDA and key volume measures can assist a reviewer in studying the reasonableness of a projection. Supernormal and/or counter-trend activity requires a compelling justification. Let’s use the information in the following graphic as a baseline for demonstrating some fundamental curiosity and addressing some basic questions regarding reasonableness. The five-year trend for adjusted EBITDA at the valuation date reflects a pattern of strong growth (illustrated by the dotted blue line in Figure 1), but at a decelerating rate (illustrated by the columns in Figure 1). The projected annual growth rate for each of the next five years is 10%. In this case, management represents that the 10% annual growth projection is based on the compound annual growth rate for the five years leading up to the valuation date. This is an all too familiar “technical” rationale for growth forecasting. However, it begs the question of why the decelerating trend would suddenly flip favorable as opposed to continuing its decline or perhaps stabilizing at the most recent level of modest growth. Of course, the current trend could mature as a contraction in performance before an upturn that repeats the prior cycle. Figure 1 depicts a wide variety of plausible alternative projections based on a technical review of the trend and a healthy dose of analyst scrutiny of management’s optimistic projection. The projection provided by management could easily be an order of magnitude overstated relative to other plausible outcomes. If EBITDA growth remains at the most recent rate (5% annually) then management’s projection is overstated 25% by year five (the orange dotted line). If EBITDA flatlines at current levels management’s year five projection is overstated by 60% (the black dotted line). If the deceleration of growth actually turns to a steady contraction (5% annually) then management’s projection is almost 100% overstated. If a modest near-term contraction is followed by a renewal of the previous growth cycle (the green dotted line), then management’s base 10% annual growth projection is overstated by 35% in year five. We could iterate infinite variations in future outcomes, but I submit that the variations shown above stem from a reasonable risk averse, conservative framework. The real concern is how well the projection reconciles to external and internal drivers that have proven to influence past business outcomes and/or drivers that are virtually assured to influence future outcomes. In the present case example, the platform of management’s projection is built on the prevailing economy (generally favorable but inconsistent growth) and involves a market-beta industry (highly correlated to the overall economy). More specifically, the subject company is a construction contracting concern whose early growth began from a deep trough in the cycle, then was temporarily juiced with shovel-ready government funded activity which eventually dried up as the general economy stabilized. New norms are uncertain but project budgets and financings are expected to be more difficult as real interest rates become more than zero and underwriting hurdles remain quite high. In this light, a simple extension of the five-year CAG into the future for five more years appears to ignore the decelerating trend. Absent specific contracts and backlog, industry-based drivers, and perhaps geographic hotbeds of significant in-migration, management’s projection outcome appears over optimistic if not outright aggressive. Projections that appear contrary to external trends and opportunities and which are not reconciled to the company’s capacity (whether existing or planned with the associated capital required) may need to be disregarded in the valuation process. Alternatively, the appraiser and trustee could view the projections with heighten concern for their realization and elect to effectively hedge the projections using appropriate discount rates, probability assessments, or other treatments that mimic the behavior of hypothetical investors. Ultimately, the reliance or weight placed on a projection based valuation method demonstrates the comfort of the appraiser/trustee with the method. If the final weights or reliance are placed on alternative valuation methods with materially different value indications than the DCF, the appraiser/trustee is effectively disregarding or modifying the projection. Surely, every valuation conclusion, under any valuation approach or method, has an underlying implied projection through which the same value outcome is produced.Rules Of Thumb For Growth RatesRecent Macro-Economic HistoryAssuming a company’s growth and/or projected financial performance is highly correlated to general macroeconomic growth is often an underpinning of long-term sustainable growth rates. Care must be taken when observing data reported from government agencies as such data can be “real” or “nominal” in quantification. Real rates are generally representative of movements net of the influence of inflation and nominal growth is generally total growth including inflation. Accordingly, growth rates in valuations that mirror inflation are effectively zero real growth rates. Gross domestic product is almost always reported and discussed in real terms, meaning the addition of a long-term inflation rate is typically called for in cases where the appraiser/trustee considers a company’s performance to be similar to that of the overall economy. For perspective, Figure 2 presents the history of economic cycles and the more recent performance of real GDP over the last several years (Figure 3). On the basis of inflation of approximately 2.5% in recent years, nominal overall economic growth has approximated 4.5% to 5% subsequent to the great recession. Ah, the rule of 5% +/- for growth. There is a wide variety of alternative economic measures and subsets of GDP that could serve as a proxy for long-term sustainable growth in most valuations. Of course, such growth rates may fail to capture all the underpinnings of a given industry or market and may also fail to recognize the specific financial and operational details of a given company. Most companies tend to grow in phases as capital investment, hiring, product offerings and other business attributes evolve over time. This discussion could extend to an infinite spectrum of data and benchmarks.Equity Market PerspectiveAppraisers employ various tools and data resources to determine the appropriate cost of capital for use in a valuation. Employing a bit of analytical deduction using the disciplines of the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Gordon Growth Model, one can observe some tendencies regarding the markets’ implied earnings growth expectations. One of the most frequently employed resources is the annual Morningstar/Ibbotson SBBI publication. Given this data, and an assumed range of price-to-earnings ratios, one can deduce the implied perpetual earnings growth rates embedded in the market’s pricing over time. This framework can be applied to a specific company, a group of companies, or an industry. The example in Figures 4 and 5 demonstrates market-based influences regarding analyst predispositions about earnings growth over time. As with other tools and sensitivity analyses in this publication, changes to the inputs can result in significantly different outputs. Relative to the growth dynamics of the different sized public companies depicted in the preceding table, it’s no wonder that the closely held, mostly mature, mid-market companies typically seen in the ESOP world (with enterprise values ranging from $10-$500 million) are imbued with net cash flow growth rates on the order 3% to 5% in the appraisal process (the “comfort zone” ). However, the timing of growth during the projection can be significant to a DCF value indication and can also influence growth rates in single-period capitalizations to measures outside of the comfort zone.Framework for Studying Projections and Growth Rate AssumptionsBy convention, virtually all business valuations include a presentation composed of five years of historical financial performance. Depending on the nature of the underlying financial reporting of the sponsor company, the presentation will include balance sheets, income statements and cash flow statements. The notes to the reported financials may also contain a myriad of underlying detail and disclosures supporting the chart of accounts displayed on the core financial exhibits. Commonly, these financial exhibits are augmented with derivative analysis to study the common size (percentage of assets) balance sheets, common size income statements (historical margins expressed as a percentage of revenue), financial ratios, peer/ industry data sets, and year-to-year and compound annual growth rate measurements.The foundation for studying the reasonableness (or believability) of a forecast derives from a firm grasp of the relevant history of the subject enterprise. The reported financial statements are often recast to reflect the proper historical base from which most projections are cast. Ultimately, the valuation methodology captures the adjusted, pro forma financial performance and position of the company that serve as the appropriate base from which forecast results are projected to emerge.Financial history is not the only context for vetting projections. To the extent possible, the financial exhibits should be annotated and/or augmented with operational data (and graphics) that allow the appraiser to demonstrate and consider how the company’s activities relate to its financial performance. In addition to common size financial data, revenue and profit segmentation can be critical to understanding what aspects of a business are performing well and what parts are hindering results. In addition to perspectives on revenue mix, the report should also reflect a functional unit volume analysis that promotes an understanding of how pricing and activity volumes drive revenue and profitability. In turn, these observations help inform the appraiser about the physical capacities, break even levels, labor resources, and other aspects of the business model and operational flows that should dove-tail with the projections.For example, if a projection implies that a business will exhaust its current operating capacities or markets, then an adequate and properly timed charge to cash flow for capital expenditures should be included in the forecast to promote continued growth. Otherwise, little or no growth (beyond the price component of revenue) should be reflected in the model. Additionally, the duration of the discrete forecast should span the number of periods required for the company’s operating and financial performance to reach a reasonable normative state from which a steady level of continuing performance can be expected. Thus, a five-year projection may require augmentation of a few periods to regress a high-growth model to a mature state, or a negative growth model to a new state of sustainable performance. Ultimately, the timing of when growth occurs can be an important value determinant in a DCF model as well as a vital consideration to developing a perpetual growth rate for cash flow.When assessing a perpetual growth rate assumption, which is required in a single-period capitalization of earnings or net cash flow, one key to estimating a reasonably correct growth rate is an understanding of the internal and external factors that drive the assumption. While some appraisers are of the mind that projections cannot or should not be developed by an appraiser; surprisingly there is no debate as to the requirement of postulating a perpetual growth rate. These seemingly different disciplines are in fact one in the same. Arguably, an appraiser seeking to quantify or justify a perpetual growth rate must employ elements of the DCF mentality to define what that growth rate should be. Of course, the base amount of the cash flow is a vital starting point. For those appraisers who gravitate to the 3%-5% perpetual growth rate range, the use of a multi-period cycle-weighted historical average of cash flow can create a significant error in the valuation.Let’s construct a simple example to demonstrate the valuation issues that could result from two different historical conditions that have the same average of performance. As crazy as it may be in practice, it is not uncommon for appraisers using multi-period averages to effectively ignore prevailing conditions and use a nominal long-term average growth rate that is correlated to GDP or some other prominent macroeconomic or industry performance measure. This mentality renders real time trends and real time expected directionality in performance as irrelevant. The following example is engineered to demonstrate how far astray the mentality for averaging and the failure to model growth can lead the valuation.Example ConditionsThe average after-tax net cash flow is $10,000,000Depreciation and capital expenditures are substantially offsettingIncremental working capital needs are minimalThe cost of equity is 15%The “assumed” perpetual annual growth rate in net cash flow is 5% As can be seen in Figure 6, relative to the common valuation of $105,000, Scenario 1 represents undervaluation by approximately 30% (10 x $15,000 = $150,000) relative to recent annual performance, while Scenario 2 reflects an overvaluation by over 100% (10 x $5,000 = $50,000). More disturbing than two quite different trends giving rise to a common valuation of $105,000 is the spread of the value range from $50,000 to $150,000 derived from the “Current CF” measures of each scenario. Which valuation is more reasonable? Are there alternatives to modeling growth that represent more plausible projections or growth rates? As can be seen in Figure 8, a valuation of $105,000 is derived from the two distinctly different historical scenarios. How might alternative projections be modeled that provide an enhanced perspective from which to study a reasonable perpetual growth rate for each scenario? Frankly, most seasoned valuation professionals would admonish the appraiser in each of the example scenarios for failing to study a projection that “engineers” the prevailing cash flows from their current respective conditions to an assumed cycle-neutral point five years hence. Simultaneously, how could a discrete projection be modeled that develops the value associated with a series of future cash flows that reconciles to a reasonable steady-state measure of cash flows and forward growth? Taking Scenario 1 first, the five-year average cash flow ($10,000) results in a measure of cash flow well below the current performance ($15,000). What might a superior path of analysis be to capture the concern that current performance is unsustainable in the near-term? Substituting the implied growth rate of cash flow resulting from the assumed perpetual growth rate of 5% and a base average of $10,000, one might postulate a more believable pattern of performance and valuation as in Figure 9. Note that the year five CF is determined as the same amount ($12,763) ultimately reached in both implied forward cash flow scenarios using the 5% perpetual growth from the base average cash flow of $10,000. An alternative modification to the original implied projection would be to regress the current cash flow performance ($15,000) to the forward year five adjusted base ($10,000 x 1.055 = $12,763). The valuation resulting from the modified projection is 7.4% higher due to a less abrupt decline than the default first year drop from $15,000 to $10,500. While this is not a radical percentage difference in the valuation, the alternative smoothed projection is a more intuitively appealing and believable model. Such a construct allows for analysis to support the development of a growth rate applicable to the cyclical high Current CF of $15,000. Using the following proof we can devise a perpetual growth rate that will reconcile the Current CF to a similar adjusted valuation of approximately $113,000. Based on Figure 9, a growth rate of approximately 2% could have been reasonably applied to the Current CF ($15,000), lending enhanced credibility to a single-period capitalization than using 5% against the multi-year average performance of $10,000. The original, default approach used by many appraisers represents a 50% immediate first year disconnect from prevailing performance that lacks a reasonable basis. This is not to say that some circumstances don’t call for an abrupt shift in assumed cash flow versus prevailing cash flow, but that is typically a fundamental issue such as the loss or gain of a significant product, territory or customer. Too often this type of flaw is the result of the default five-finger rule to averaging five years of cash flows and using a 5% growth rate. Repeating the previous exercise for Scenario 2 results in Figure 10. Based on the example in Figure 10, a growth rate of approximately 8.7% could have been reasonably applied to the Current CF ($5,000), lending enhanced credibility to a single-period capitalization than using 5% against the multi-year average performance of $10,000. Again, this is not to say that some circumstances don’t call for an abrupt shift in assumed cash flow versus prevailing cash flow, but such a scenario is typically a fundamental issue such as the loss or gain of a significant product, territory or customer. Now that both of the implied projections have been modified to reflect more gradual regression to a mean level of assumed stable performance and sustainable future growth, the valuations reveal differentials from approximately 7.2% higher to 8.9% lower relative to the $105,000 derived from the default valuation mentality often employed. More significantly, the respective valuations are better suited to the prevailing cash flows and the expected directionality of performance. Each model now reflects a more thoughtful consideration of the time value of money. Figure 11 shows how the respective projections for each scenario converge on an estimated cyclically neutral level of future performance. The respective valuations, either in the form of a DCF or in the form of a single-period capitalization, are refined to capture the time value of money corresponding to a more believable performance regression/progression forecast. It should seem logical that the refined projection showing a gradual decline (Scenario 1) that starts with an above historical average level of performance, results in a higher value than the original $105,000. Likewise, the increasing projection (Scenario 2) that starts with below historical average performance results in a lower valuation than the original treatment. The chart in Figure 11 implies that performance has a gravitational attraction to the five-year outcome as a notional level of future performance ($12,763). An alternative and perhaps more realistic projection would craft a regression of the growth rate rather than a regression of performance to a notional future amount. Decelerating growth from either its peak performance (Scenario 1) or applying rapid growth during a mode of recovery (Scenario 2) seems more logical in most real world situations than the default trend. These competing projections are depicted in Figure 12. The valuations resulting from the smoothed growth patterns are developed in Figures 13 and 14 respectively. Of course, the pattern of future deceleration or acceleration requires specific study and support. The assumed patterns are presented for example purposes. A study of these alternative modeling inputs suggests that the original valuation of $105,000 is potentially flawed. Let’s summarize the various valuation outcomes from the two different scenarios. Remember, common averaging techniques coupled with seemingly benign growth assumptions result initially in the same valuation under both scenarios. However, scrutiny of the growth and/or projection modeling reveals some dramatic differences. Admittedly, in most valuations there would be underlying facts and circumstances supporting one of three modeling conditions applied to each scenario. One can easily see how valuations can be viewed quiet differently by differing parties under differing circumstances. The primary valuation differential for each stems from the implied projection and growth modeling. The common appraiser mentality of using historical average performance (rule of thumb mindset) combined with the typical “normal/benign” assumptions concerning growth and the cost of capital, can serve to understate or overstate value. Growth analysis and reasonable forecasting (birds of the same feather) allow for a more believable and optically pleasing analyses and conclusions. Comparing alternative projections from otherwise implied projections can provide better insight into growth modeling and promote more rational forecasting.Appendix A | Case Analysis: Understanding Growth RatesOne of the most debated and poorly supported assumptions in business valuation is that of the growth rate in performance, be it earnings, net cash flow, or debt-free cash flow. The default reliance on macroeconomic or industry based data is a good beginning but often falls short of the full growth profile for a specific business in a specific industry in a specific geography at a specific point in time. The real world is often lumpy and most companies experience shifts in top-line activity, cost efficiencies, and operating leverage throughout the business cycle or in conjunction with changes in the business model. Skill and experience are powerful influencers for what feels “right,” but too often the five finger-growth mentality rules the day. What tools can an appraiser use to develop and defend growth rate assumptions and how can such a tool be used as a critical review tool?Let’s study an example featuring a combination of typical facts and circumstances.Example Conditions:The economy is stable, with nominal GDP on the order of 4% and real GDP on the order of 2%The subject Company is stable, and operating with consistent resultsThe Company is twenty years old and has experienced 10% growth in annual sales over the last five yearsThe subject Company has moderate pricing power and operates in an industry with commodity players as well as value-added players (implying a range of profit margins and revenue sizes)Historical pricing for the Company’s goods and services follows a more or less inflationary pattern (say 2.0%), and the markets resist price increases such that Company profits can be squeezed without constant attention to expensesThe goal for the Company is to expand its market from the current 25 states to all 50 states in the next five years (all states represent equal market opportunity)With margins constant, sales growth represents a reasonable proxy for growth in earnings and net cash flow (EBITDA margin +/-10%)Public companies, larger and already national in market exposure, are expecting 5% annual sales volume growth over the next five years (consistent with industry expectations) and 10% annual earnings growth (implying margin expansion)Capital structure is expected to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future (debt free) » The Company has no excessive or abnormal risk exposures or concentrationsThe Company’s goods and services do not represent new or disruptive/paradigm technologyIt is not uncommon for an appraiser to uncover the above information in the course of due diligence. Yet, the same management team that can relate such feedback to the appraiser will not “speculate” on a projection. A competent appraiser should be able to cobble together the framework of a projection for purposes of quantifying a growth rate for a single-period capitalization as well as performing a summary DCF analysis (perhaps as a test of reason or as additional direct valuation evidence). Figure 16 depicts how the facts and circumstances are expected to play out in sales and EBITDA. Most often the typical approach would be to grab a recent average level of performance and use a growth rate likened to nominal GDP (4%), perhaps influenced up a bit to reflect the recent growth performance. However, the 6.3% perpetual growth rate developed does not tie directly to the underlying data and general information. For an appraiser to get the single-period perpetual growth rate correct, he/she would simply have to get that “just right” feeling. Clearly, a bit of extra effort and the constructive extension of logic would allow for an anecdotal or direct DCF-type study that could offer support for the generally favorable growth rate required in the analysis. Figures 16-18 serve notice that macroeconomic growth rates, sprinkled with a little current and near term company performance are often misleading and can fail to capture the influence of timing on the value of future cash flows.Reconciling Multi-Stage Growth Rates to a Single, Perpetual Growth RateReport reviewers are frequently confined to terse, misguided, or unjustified positions concerning growth rates. Typically, report users are bludgeoned with anecdotal growth evidence or with historical observations that fail to translate directly into reasonable future expectations. The time value of money is frequently obscured by a failure to reconcile multi-stage growth expectations into a meaningful single-period growth rate. Figure 19 displays a matrix of single, perpetual growth rates derived from the blended short term and long term growth rate expectations based on a 15% equity discount rate. Given a beginning measure of net cash flow or earnings, the table provides the single-period growth rate necessary to derive the same value result as a DCF using a five years of annual growth from the vertical axis (displayed left) and a terminal value developed using the growth rate from the horizontal axis (displayed top). For example, a company expecting to achieve 10% annual growth for years one through five and a terminal value growth rate of 5% would require a perpetual growth rate of 6.4% to equate a Gordon-style capitalization to a DCF valuation. The 6.4% perpetual rate may lack direct or specific support anywhere in the industry or economic data, but it may functionally capture the short-term and long-term expectations that are reasonable. Some appraisers may find this simple concept too burdensome to develop and communicate and thus a trustee often ends up with the five-finger approach to growth analysis. Figure 19 provides a quick and powerful tool for assessing growth rates in valuation reports (at the specific 15% equity discount rate). Even if future growth lacks “visibility,” the fact is that years one through five are more predictable than beyond five or more years. That being a matter of common sense, a given company’s prevailing and near term trends might reasonably serve as the annual growth rate for years one through five while an industry/GDP/inflationary assumption might reasonably serve as the perpetual growth rate after the initial five-year implied projection (e.g. the terminal value growth rate). Figures 19-21 are based on alternative equity discount rates. The use of the subject’s company’s equity discount rate is vital to developing a proper growth rate perspective. We note that growth rates applicable to alternative cash flows, such a cash flow to total invested capital, can also be studied using a similar approach as described in these examples. Replicating the math of these growth tables is relatively easy for any experienced analyst or reviewer.Appendix B | Case Analysis: Testing Projection Outcomes Using DCF AnalysisFor purposes of the following case study analysis, let’s refer to the various projection scenarios depicted in Figure 22. Additionally, let’s frame the effect on the valuation from the projection scenarios using a valuation of the unadjusted management projections. Figure 22 highlights the various projection scenarios one might reasonably develop as alternatives to the base management projection. Figure 23 depicts both a DCF and single-period capitalization developed from a base projection. As can be observed in Figure 24, the valuation using a modified growth rate reduced the total equity valuation by 20%. If the appraiser and/or the trustee concur that this lower growth scenario is a more plausible outcome than management’s original projection, particularly in light of the trustee’s core concern for a long-term sustainable and serviceable ESOP benefit, then all things held constant in the base projection model, the use of an equity risk premium on the order of 2.0% applied to the equity discount rate of the original model (making it 17% versus the original 15%) would converge the value of the original projection with that of the alternative 5% growth scenario. Using this technique, the appraiser/trustee has not directly modified the projection, but the valuation is hedged for the horizon risk believed to be associated with management’s base numbers. This is a simplified but powerful example of how the appraisal process can serve to effectively adjust the valuation outcome for the uncertainty of achieving a projection. Numerous other DCF treatments including discounting timing conventions, terminal growth rates, terminal value methods, capital structure for determining the WACC, working capital assumptions, and other tweaks can individually or collectively result in significantly different valuation outcomes using the same projection. These adjustments and modeling exercises can aid appraisers and trustees in determining reasonable and credible valuation outcomes. It goes without saying that these adjustments cannot simply be arbitrary. Rather, they must be reasonable and supportable in the context of the company’s capabilities and the marketplace for ESOP ownership interests in the company. With regard to valuations over time, changes in assumptions and modeling techniques should not be buried or obscured and should be clearly reconciled for the benefit of both the appraiser and the trustee. As can be observed in Figure 25, the valuation using the 0% growth scenario reduced the total equity valuation by 37% from the original growth projection. If the appraiser and/or the trustee concur that this alternative growth scenario is a more plausible outcome than management’s original projection, particularly in light of the trustee’s core concern for a long-term sustainable and serviceable ESOP benefit, then all things held constant in the base projection model, the use of an equity risk premium on the order of 4.0% applied to the equity rate (making it 19% versus the original 15%) would converge the value of the original projection with that of the alternative 0% (no) growth scenario. Using this technique, the appraiser/trustee has not directly modified the projection, but the valuation is hedged for the horizon risk believed to be associated with management’s base numbers. As can be observed in Figure 26, the valuation using a declining growth scenario reduced the total equity valuation by 48%. If the appraiser and/or the trustee concur that this alternative growth scenario is a more plausible outcome than management’s original projection, particularly in light of the trustee’s core concern for a long-term sustainable and serviceable ESOP benefit, then all things held constant in the base projection model, the use of an equity risk premium on the order of 6.0% applied to the equity rate (making it 21% versus the original 15%) would converge the value of the original projection with that of the alternative -5% annual growth scenario. Using this technique, the appraiser/trustee has not directly modified the projection, but the valuation is hedged for the horizon risk believed to be associated with management’s base numbers. As can be observed in Figure 28, the valuation using a modified growth rate reduced the total equity valuation by 32%. If the appraiser and/or the trustee concur that this alternative growth scenario is a more plausible outcome than management’s original projection, particularly in light of the trustee’s core concern for a long-term sustainable and serviceable ESOP benefit, then all things held constant in the base projection model, the use of an equity risk premium on the order of 3.3% applied to the equity rate (making it 18.3% versus the original 15%) would converge the value of the original projection with that of the alternative cyclical growth scenario. Using this technique, the appraiser/trustee has not directly modified the projection, but the valuation is hedged for the horizon risk believed to be associated with management’s base numbers.Synthesis of Outcomes Using Alternative Projections/ Equity Discount RatesFigure 28 depicts the various growth rates scenarios studied for this example. This serves as an example of the type of sensitivity and stress testing the trustee/appraiser can employ to support the due diligence process and the documentation of the projections employed (and/or not employed) as called for under the DOL settlement protocols. As previously stated, alteration of numerous other modeling inputs could be studied in the same fashion as this example using growth rates and reconciling equity (horizon/projection) premiums. The various scenarios can be used to support concerns for downside risk concerning the valuation, the ability to service debt, and the ability to support ESOP repurchase obligation (all procedures and considerations called for under the settlement protocols). These same sensitivity processes can be used to assess the quality and relative value of the subject ESOP company to transaction data and/or guideline public company data employed and/or adjusted in the valuation.As can be seen in Figure 28, modeling alternative growth scenarios can be a powerful tool in assessing the risk profile and alternative outcomes associated with a given set of projections. While this lengthy working example has examined downside scenarios associated with projection shortfalls, the same framework can be used to assess upside potential in cases where management projections appear conservative in light of past performance and/or external business drivers. It could be argued that the assessment of repurchase obligation should include the potential impact from positive budget variances, as undervaluation today could result in an underestimation of future repurchase liability, which could lead to under-informed and potentially adverse business decisions by the sponsor company.Appendix C | SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT (DOL V. GREATBANC)UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT | CENTRAL DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA | Case No. ED-CV12-1648-R(DTBx)THOMAS E. PEREZ Secretary of the United States Department of Labor (Plaintiff) V. GREATBANC TRUST COMPANY, et al. (Defendants)This SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT (“Settlement Agreement”) is entered into by and between Thomas E. Perez, Secretary of the United States Department of Labor (“Secretary”), acting in his official capacity, by and through his duly authorized representatives, and GreatBanc Trust Company (“GreatBanc”), by and through its duly authorized representative (individually, a “party” and collectively, the “parties”), to settle all civil claims and issues between them.WHEREAS, the Secretary’s predecessor, Hilda L. Solis, acting in her official capacity, pursuant to her authority under Title I of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (“ERISA”), 29 U.S.C. § 1001, et seq., as amended, filed this action in connection with the June 20, 2006 purchase of Sierra Aluminum Company (“Sierra”) stock by the Employee Stock Ownership Plan sponsored by Sierra (the “Sierra ESOP”), and Thomas E. Perez, current Secretary of the United States Department of Labor, in his official capacity, substituted for Hilda Solis and is now the plaintiff in this action;WHEREAS, the Secretary and GreatBanc have negotiated this Settlement Agreement through their respective attorneys in a mediation process;WHEREAS, the Secretary and GreatBanc have engaged in a constructive and collaborative effort to establish binding policies and procedures relating to GreatBanc’s fiduciary engagements and to its process of analyzing transactions involving purchases or sales by ERISA-covered employee stock ownership plans (“ESOPs”) of employer securities that are not publicly traded. Those policies and procedures, to which the parties have agreed, are set forth in Attachment A hereto, which is incorporated herein as an integral part of this Settlement Agreement (hereinafter collectively, “Settlement Agreement”);WHEREAS, each party acknowledges that its representations are material factors in the other party’s decision to enter into this Settlement Agreement;WHEREAS, the parties agree to settle on the terms and conditions hereafter set forth as a full and complete resolution of all of the civil claims and issues arising between them in this action without trial or adjudication of any issue of fact or law raised in the Secretary’s Complaint in this action and other claims and issues as set forth in this Settlement Agreement;[.][Terms and conditions delineated as items A through U omitted]Attachment A Of The Settlement Agreement AgreementConcerning Fiduciary Engagements And Process Requirements For Employer Stock TransactionsThe Secretary of the United States Department of Labor (the “Secretary”) and GreatBanc Trust Company (“the Trustee”), by and through their attorneys, have agreed that the policies and procedures described below apply whenever the Trustee serves as a trustee or other fiduciary of any employee stock ownership plan subject to Title I of ERISA (“ESOP”) in connection with transactions in which the ESOP is purchasing or selling, is contemplating purchasing or selling, or receives an offer to purchase or sell, employer securities that are not publicly traded.A. Selection and Use of Valuation Advisor – General. In all transactions involving the purchase or sale of employer securities that are not publicly traded, the Trustee will hire a qualified valuation advisor, and will do the following:prudently investigate the valuation advisor’s qualifications;take reasonable steps to determine that the valuation advisor receives complete, accurate and current information necessary to value the employer securities; andprudently determine that its reliance on the valuation advisor’s advice is reasonable before entering into any transaction in reliance on the advice.B. Selection of Valuation Advisor – Conflicts of Interest. The Trustee will not use a valuation advisor for a transaction that has previously performed work – including but not limited to a “preliminary valuation” – for or on behalf of the ESOP sponsor (as distinguished from the ESOP), any counter-party to the ESOP involved in the transaction, or any other entity that is structuring the transaction (such as an investment bank) for any party other than the ESOP or its trustee. The Trustee will not use a valuation advisor for a transaction that has a familial or corporate relationship (such as a parent-subsidiary relationship) to any of the aforementioned persons or entities. The Trustee will obtain written confirmation from the valuation advisor selected that none of the above-referenced relations exist. C. Selection of Valuation Advisor – Process. In selecting a valuation advisor for a transaction involving the purchase or sale of employer securities, the Trustee will prepare a written analysis addressing the following topics:The reason for selecting the particular valuation advisor;A list of all the valuation advisors that the Trustee considered;A discussion of the qualifications of the valuation advisors that the Trustee considered;A list of references checked and discussion of the references’ views on the valuation advisors;Whether the valuation advisor was the subject of prior criminal or civil proceedings; andA full explanation of the bases for concluding that the Trustee’s selection of the valuation advisor was prudent.If the Trustee selects a valuation advisor from a roster of valuation advisors that it has previously used, the Trustee need not undertake anew the analysis outlined above if the following conditions are satisfied: (a) the Trustee previously performed the analysis in connection with a prior engagement of the valuation advisor; (b) the previous analysis was completed within the 15 month period immediately preceding the valuation advisor’s selection for a specific transaction; (c) the Trustee documents in writing that it previously performed the analysis, the date(s) on which the Trustee performed the analysis, and the results of the analysis; and (d) the valuation advisor certifies that the information it previously provided pursuant to item (5) above is still accurate. D. Oversight of Valuation Advisor – Required Analysis. In connection with any purchase or sale of employer securities that are not publicly traded, the Trustee will request that the valuation advisor document the following items in its valuation report,1 and if the valuation advisor does not so document properly, the Trustee will prepare supplemental documentation of the following items to the extent they were not documented by the valuation advisor:Identify in writing the individuals responsible for providing any projections reflected in the valuation report, and as to those individuals, conduct reasonable inquiry as to: (a) whether those individuals have or reasonably may be determined to have any conflicts of interest in regard to the ESOP (including but not limited to any interest in the purchase or sale of the employer securities being considered); (b) whether those individuals serve as agents or employees of persons with such conflicts, and the precise nature of any such conflicts: and (c) record in writing how the Trustee and the valuation advisor considered such conflicts in determining the value of employer securities;Document in writing an opinion as to the reasonableness of any projections considered in connection with the proposed transaction and explain in writing why and to what extent the projections are or are not reasonable. At a minimum, the analysis shall consider how the projections compare to, and whether they are reasonable in light of, the company’s five-year historical averages and/or medians and the five-year historical averages and/or medians of a group of comparable public companies (if any exist) for the following metrics, unless five-year data are unavailable (in which case, the analyses shall use averages extending as far back as possible). a. Return on assets b. Return on equity c. EBIT margins d. EBITDA margins e. Ratio of capital expenditures to sales f. Revenue growth rate g. Ratio of free cash flows (of the enterprise) to salesIf it is determined that any of these metrics should be disregarded in assessing the reasonableness of the projections, document in writing both the calculations of the metric (unless calculation is impossible) and the basis for the conclusion that the metric should be disregarded. The use of additional metrics to evaluate the reasonableness of projections other than those listed in section D(2)(a)-(g) above is not precluded as long as the appropriateness of those metrics is documented in writing. If comparable companies are used for any part of a valuation – whether as part of a Guideline Public Company method, to gauge the reasonableness of projections, or for any other purpose – explain in writing the bases for concluding that the comparable companies are actually comparable to the company being valued, including on the basis of size, customer concentration (if such information is publicly available), and volatility of earnings. If a Guideline Public Company analysis is performed, explain in writing any discounts applied to the multiples selected, and if no discount is applied to any given multiple, explain in significant detail the reasons.If the company is projected to meet or exceed its historical performance or the historical performance of the group of comparable public companies on any of the metrics described in paragraph D(2) above, document in writing all material assumptions supporting such projections and why those assumptions are reasonable.To the extent that the Trustee or its valuation advisor considers any of the projections provided by the ESOP sponsor to be unreasonable, document in writing any adjustments made to the projections.If adjustments are applied to the company’s historical or projected financial metrics in a valuation analysis, determine and explain in writing why such adjustments are reasonable.If greater weight is assigned to some valuation methods than to others, explain in writing the weighting assigned to each valuation method and the basis for the weightings assigned.Consider, as appropriate, how the plan document provisions regarding stock distributions, the duration of the ESOP loan, and the age and tenure of the ESOP participants, may affect the ESOP sponsor’s prospective repurchase obligation, the prudence of the stock purchase, or the fair market value of the stock.Analyze and document in writing (a) whether the ESOP sponsor will be able to service the debt taken on in connection with the transaction (including the ability to service the debt in the event that the ESOP sponsor fails to meet the projections relied upon in valuing the stock); (b) whether the transaction is fair to the ESOP from a financial point of view; (c) whether the transaction is fair to the ESOP relative to all the other parties to the proposed transaction; (d) whether the terms of the financing of the proposed transaction are market-based, commercially reasonable, and in the best interests of the ESOP; and (e) the financial impact of the proposed transaction on the ESOP sponsor, and document in writing the factors considered in such analysis and conclusions drawn therefrom.E. Financial Statements.The Trustee will request that the company provide the Trustee and its valuation advisor with audited unqualified financial statements prepared by a CPA for the preceding five fiscal years, unless financial statements extending back five years are unavailable (in which case, the Trustee will request audited unqualified financial statement extending as far back as possible).If the ESOP Sponsor provides to the Trustee or its valuation advisor unaudited or qualified financial statements prepared by a CPA for any of the preceding five fiscal years (including interim financial statements that update or supplement the last available audited statements), the Trustee will determine whether it is prudent to rely on the unaudited or qualified financial statements notwithstanding the risk posed by using unaudited or qualified financial statements.If the Trustee proceeds with the transaction notwithstanding the lack of audited unqualified financial statements prepared by a CPA (including interim financial statements that update or supplement the last available audited statements), the Trustee will document the bases for the Trustee’s reasonable belief that it is prudent to rely on the financial statements, and explain in writing how it accounted for any risk posed by using qualified or unaudited statements. If the Trustee does not believe that it can reasonably conclude that it would be prudent to rely on the financial statements used in the valuation report, the Trustee will not proceed with the transaction. While the Trustee need not audit the financial statements itself, it must carefully consider the reliability of those statements in the manner set forth herein.F. Fiduciary Review Process – General. In connection with any transaction involving the purchase or sale of employer securities that are not publicly traded, the Trustee agrees to do the following:Take reasonable steps necessary to determine the prudence of relying on the ESOP sponsor’s financial statements provided to the valuation advisor, as set out more fully in paragraph E above;Critically assess the reasonableness of any projections (particularly management projections), and if the valuation report does not document in writing the reasonableness of such projections to the Trustee’s satisfaction, the Trustee will prepare supplemental documentation explaining why and to what extent the projections are or are not reasonable;Document in writing its bases for concluding that the information supplied to the valuation advisor, whether directly from the ESOP sponsor or otherwise, was current, complete, and accurate.G. Fiduciary Review Process – Documentation of Valuation Analysis. The Trustee will document in writing its analysis of any final valuation report relating to a transaction involving the purchase or sale of employer securities. The Trustee’s documentation will specifically address each of the following topics and will include the Trustee’s conclusions regarding the final valuation report’s treatment of each topic and explain in writing the bases for its conclusions:Marketability discounts;Minority interests and control premiums;Projections of the company’s future economic performance and the reasonableness or unreasonableness of such projections, including, if applicable, the bases for assuming that the company’s future financial performance will meet or exceed historical performance or the expected performance of the relevant industry generally;Analysis of the company’s strengths and weaknesses, which may include, as appropriate, personnel, plant and equipment, capacity, research and development, marketing strategy, business planning, financial condition, and any other factors that reasonably could be expected to affect future performance;Specific discount rates chosen, including whether any Weighted Average Cost of Capital used by the valuation advisor was based on the company’s actual capital structure or that of the relevant industry and why the chosen capital structure weighting was reasonable;All adjustments to the company’s historical financial statements;Consistency of the general economic and industry-specific narrative in the valuation report with the quantitative aspects of the valuation report;Reliability and timeliness of the historical financial data considered, including a discussion of whether the financial statements used by the valuation advisor were the subject of unqualified audit opinions, and if not, why it would nevertheless be prudent to rely on them;The comparability of the companies chosen as part of any analysis based on comparable companies;Material assumptions underlying the valuation report and any testing and analyses of these assumptions;Where the valuation report made choices between averages, medians, and outliers (e.g., in determining the multiple(s) used under the “guideline company method” of valuation), the reasons for the choices;Treatment of corporate debt;Whether the methodologies employed were standard and accepted methodologies and the bases for any departures from standard and accepted methodologies;The ESOP sponsor’s ability to service any debt or liabilities to be taken on in connection with the proposed transaction;The proposed transaction’s reasonably foreseeable risks as of the date of the transaction;Any other material considerations or variables that could have a significant effect on the price of the employer securities.H. Fiduciary Review Process – Reliance on Valuation Report.The Trustee, through its personnel who are responsible for the proposed transaction, will do the following, and document in writing its work with respect to each: a. Read and understand the valuation report; b. Identify and question the valuation report’s underlying assumptions; c. Make reasonable inquiry as to whether the information in the valuation report is materially consistent with information in the Trustee’s possession; d. Analyze whether the valuation report’s conclusions are consistent with the data and analyses; and e. Analyze whether the valuation report is internally consistent in material aspects.The Trustee will document in writing the following: (a) the identities of its personnel who were primarily responsible for the proposed transaction, including any person who participated in decisions on whether to proceed with the transaction or the price of the transaction; (b) any material points as to which such personnel disagreed and why; and (c) whether any such personnel concluded or expressed the belief prior to the Trustee’s approval of the transaction that the valuation report’s conclusions were inconsistent with the data and analysis therein or that the valuation report was internally inconsistent in material aspects.If the individuals responsible for performing the analysis believe that the valuation report’s conclusions are not consistent with the data and analysis or that the valuation report is internally inconsistent in material respects, the Trustee will not proceed with the transaction.I. Preservation of Documents. In connection with any transaction completed by the Trustee through its committee or otherwise, the Trustee will create and preserve, for at least six (6) years, notes and records that document in writing the following:The full name, business address, telephone number and email address at the time of the Trustee’s consideration of the proposed transaction of each member of the Trustee’s Fiduciary Committee (whether or not he or she voted on the transaction) and any other Trustee personnel who made any material decision(s) on behalf of the Trustee in connection with the proposed transaction, including any of the persons identified pursuant to H(2) above;The vote (yes or no) of each member of the Trustee’s Fiduciary Committee who voted on the proposed transaction and a signed certification by each of the voting committee members and any other Trustee personnel who made any material decision(s) on behalf of the Trustee in connection with the proposed transaction that they have read the valuation report, identified its underlying assumptions, and considered the reasonableness of the valuation report’s assumptions and conclusions;All notes and records created by the Trustee in connection with its consideration of the proposed transaction, including all documentation required by this Agreement;All documents the Trustee and the persons identified in 1 above relied on in making their decisions;All electronic or other written communications the Trustee and the persons identified in 1 above had with service providers (including any valuation advisor), the ESOP sponsor, any non-ESOP counterparties, and any advisors retained by the ESOP sponsor or non-ESOP counterparties.J. Fair Market Value. The Trustee will not cause an ESOP to purchase employer securities for more than their fair market value or sell employer securities for less than their fair market value. The DOL states that the principal amount of the debt financing the transaction, irrespective of the interest rate, cannot exceed the securities’ fair market value. Accordingly, the Trustee will not cause an ESOP to engage in a leveraged stock purchase transaction in which the principal amount of the debt financing the transaction exceeds the fair market value of the stock acquired with that debt, irrespective of the interest rate or other terms of the debt used to finance the transaction. K. Consideration of Claw-Back. In evaluating proposed stock transactions, the Trustee will consider whether it is appropriate to request a claw-back arrangement or other purchase price adjustment(s) to protect the ESOP against the possibility of adverse consequences in the event of significant corporate events or changed circumstances. The Trustee will document in writing its consideration of the appropriateness of a claw-back or other purchase price adjustment(s). L. Other Professionals. The Trustee may, consistent with its fiduciary responsibilities under ERISA, employ, or delegate fiduciary authority to, qualified professionals to aid the Trustee in the exercise of its powers, duties, and responsibilities as long as it is prudent to do so. M. This Agreement is not intended to specify all of the Trustee’s obligations as an ERISA fiduciary with respect to the purchase or sale of employer stock under ERISA, and in no way supersedes any of the Trustee’s obligations under ERISA or its implementing regulations.
The Market Approach | Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees
The Market Approach | Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees
This article first appeared as a whitepaper in a series of reports titled Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees. The market approach is a general way of determining the value of a business, business ownership interest, security, or intangible asset by using one or more methods that compare the subject to similar businesses, business ownership interests, securities, or intangible assets that have been sold. Functionally, market methodologies are similar to direct capitalization income methods in that a benefit (or performance) measure of the subject business is converted to value by a capitalization factor. It is the specificity of the data supporting the capitalization factor that differentiates market methodology from income methodology.In general, income methodologies rely on indirect, broad market rates of return on capital (Ibbotson, et al.) and on various data sets and trends to establish growth rates. For cases in which there is more direct information from a comparable market, such information is used in a market approach to develop a value for the subject entity. These comparable markets offer evidence of either direct- or relative-value metrics based on transaction activity among investors. Such markets can be described as direct—in that a similar ownership interest or security in the same subject entity has transacted—or as indirect—in that a group of publicly traded securities of similar companies can be observed and/or that transactions of entire entities can be observed. The market approach includes numerous methods, which are generally named according to the nature of the direct or relative-value market data. Naming conventions for certain market methods differ among valuation practitioners but most fall into three categories: (1) the transaction method, (2) the guideline public company method, and (3) the guideline transactions method. As with market data sets used in income methodology, the appropriateness of the data (i.e., its comparability and overall strength of relevance) is the primary concern. Market evidence may require adjustment to address a variety of issues before it can be used to value the subject interest. These adjustments differ based on which of the various market methods is employed as well as on the nature of the transactions observed. The following provides an overview of the primary elements of comparability and adjustments under the three primary categories of market methodology.Valuation Methods Under The Market ApproachThe market approach includes a variety of valuation methods under which pricing metrics are drawn from transactions of interests in companies that are comparable to the subject company. The three primary valuation methods under the market approach are summarized below.Transactions Method — derives value using pricing metrics of historical or contemporaneous transactions of interests in the subject company.Guideline Public Company Method — derives value using transaction information drawn from publicly traded securities of companies in the same or similar lines of business as the subject company.Guideline Transactions Method — derives value using pricing metrics of mergers and acquisitions involving controlling interests of companies (public and private) in the same or similar lines of business as the subject company.The comparability and reliability of observed transactions is the central concern. The three core market methodologies yield differing types of valuation information for a given ownership interest or entity. Based on the market in which the observed transaction(s) occurred, there can be differing relative valuations. The transaction method may yield valuation information at various levels of value (control or minority). The guideline public company method generally yields valuation information at the marketable minority interest level of value. The guideline transactions method generally yields valuation information based on the controlling interest level of value. Accordingly, the value definition used for an appraisal may suggest which single method or combination of methods might directly apply in the appraisal process. Rarely is a guideline transactions method employed in a valuation calling for the minority interest level of value. Conversely, observed transactions in minority ownership interests of the subject entity may not provide appropriate valuation information for valuations in which the engagement calls for use of the controlling interest level of value. Although market methods can result in valuations at varying levels of value, each of which may differ from the level of value defined for a given appraisal, there can be useful information in transaction activity even if such activity implies a valuation that is not directly equivalent to the value definition specified in the appraisal engagement. Frequently, there are circumstances in which the appraiser may observe activity that provides indirect support for the valuation or that can be reconciled to the value definition called for in the appraisal report. As with income methods, the valuations developed using market methodology can result in a value indication for the equity of the subject or for the assets (invested capital) of the subject. In the latter case, the market value of debt is subtracted to derive the equity value of the subject. Appraisers may elect to use market methods that result in direct value indications that differ from the value definition called for in the appraisal engagement. In such cases, valuation discounts and premiums are usually applied to adjust the value indication to the specified level of value defined for the engagement.Rules of ThumbA valuation rule of thumb relates an operational or financial measure of a company to a measure of value. Most metrics are operational in nature (based on some unit of business activity or volume) or are financial (representing a multiplier to capitalize revenue, cash flow or some other financial benefit stream). There is rule-of-thumb valuation innuendo in almost every industry. In some cases, such information provides useful insight into the mentality and predisposition of what an owner of a business or business interest believes their holding is worth. This is particularly true of industries whose participants adhere to a relatively narrow range of norms in operating, financial, and/or physical composition.A rule of thumb value indication is typically a controlling interest level of value. In some cases, rules of thumb reflect a strategic value as opposed to a financial controlling interest value. Appraisers using or referring to rules of thumb must be aware, to the degree possible, of the origin of the rule of thumb in order to assess whether it captures synergies or other premium benefits (or expected profitability) available only to specific strategic investors. Because most rules of thumb have their genesis within a given industry or trade group, strategic elements are often included. Accordingly, ESOP valuations using the fair market value standard may result in conclusions lower than the common industry rules of thumb. However, industry rules of thumb may also coincide with fair market value if the hypothetical investor is closely aligned with likely market participants in the industry or market.Most rules of thumb relate to the total enterprise value of assets as opposed to the total equity value of a business. Hence, the determination of equity value requires the subtraction of debt from the total enterprise value. As with the private transaction databases, rules of thumb generally require adjustment for certain types of assets and liabilities that are not typically part of transactions. Cash balances, certain liabilities, working capital, real estate, and other balance sheet amounts may be treated separately from core business assets.Rules of thumb can be highly misleading as most subject companies differ from the stereotypical company in the stereotypical market with a steady-state cycle of performance. Even when such normalcy appears evident, there are marketplace and economic factors that result in valuations that deviate from the central point of a suggested range. Some valuation texts refer to the use of a rule of thumb as a valuation method. Likewise, there are proprietary transaction databases that, when viewed across multiple industries over extended periods of time, are promulgated to represent meaningful information in the valuation of small business enterprises. Appraisers have the task of determining whether or not such data rise to an acceptable level of reliability and/or relevance. In most cases, we see such data as constituting a rule of thumb, and, therefore, subject to healthy scrutiny and devil’s advocacy.Many small- to middle-market companies (enterprise valuations of $5 to $500 million) have enjoyed increased access to capital funding alternatives and exit strategies in recent years. The rise of private equity buyout firms and the general increase in knowledge among business owners has influenced evolution in rules of thumb. Historically simplistic references to unit revenue measures have evolved and been reconciled to financial measures.For example, an old-guard rule of thumb in the beverage distribution industry was based on annual volume of cases sold. A distributor of a given type or brand of product might generally assume or expect a certain business value based on annual case-volume activity. However, changes in product mix caused by evolving consumer preferences over time rendered these rules less reliable in explaining the value of a given distributor whose margin was below or in excess of norms. Eventually, the industry vernacular became more focused on gross profit, which better characterizes profit by taking into account the mix and pricing of product offerings. However, operating expense structures of distributors vary to the extent that gross profit is often inadequate in explaining value differentials in transactions. In the current environment, rules of thumb have taken the next step by reconciling to financial measures (such as a multiple of cash flow). Any rule of thumb based on an industry metric (i.e., tons, cases, etc.), can be reconciled to a financial equivalency. Doing so facilitates easier value comparisons and provides a financial basis for reconciling the concluded value in an appraisal to a broad industry rule of thumb.Consistent with the business valuation standards issued by the professional organizations, we do not suggest using a rule of thumb as a stand-alone valuation method under the market approach. However, when valuing a subject entity or interest using a controlling interest level of value, we do encourage appraisers and reviewers to be aware of any rule of thumb that may characterize value in the subject’s industry. In most cases, an indirect reference to a rule of thumb can provide support for a value conclusion developed under more conventional and financially sound methods. If a conclusion deviates from a rule of thumb, it can be useful for the appraiser to explain why.Transactions MethodThe transactions method is a market approach that develops an indication of value based upon consideration of observed transactions in the ownership interests of the subject entity. Transactions should be scrutinized to determine if they have occurred at arm’s length, with a reasonable degree of frequency, and within a reasonable period of time relative to the valuation date. Inferences about current value can sometimes be drawn, even if there is only a limited market for the ownership interests and relatively few transactions occur.The timeliness of a transaction is important. However, time itself is not the only parameter that determines whether a transaction is reliable for use in a given appraisal. If internal and/or external business conditions or other factors have changed or evolved in a significant way from the time of the observed transaction to the date of the valuation, then use of the transaction may be unreliable. This could also be true for a transaction occurring in close proximity to the valuation date. While a dated transaction may be unreliable in absolute value terms, the implied relative value of the transaction may be useful to examine (such as price to book or enterprise value to cash flow). Arguably, any transaction that has occurred in reasonable proximity to the valuation date should be disclosed and distilled even if it is not directly considered toward the valuation. In such a case, the appraiser may need to explicitly qualify why a transaction is not being given direct weight in the valuation. In select cases where entity and market performance have remained stable over time, transactions that are somewhat dated may provide meaningful direct or indirect support to the appraisal. Transactions occurring subsequent to the valuation date should not be considered unless the facts and circumstances of such activity were known or reasonably knowable as of the valuation date and there is (was) a high likelihood of the transaction closing.There are many corporate and shareholder events in the ordinary course of business that may produce meaningful transaction data. Shareholder redemptions, capital raising, transactions among the ownership group, recapitalizations, buy-sell trigger events, equity compensation grants, business acquisitions, dispositions, and other events are not unusual, particularly in larger entities or in entities with large and/or active ownership groups. It is important that any transaction used to develop an indication of value for the entity, or more directly for the subject interest, be considered in the proper context (in terms of value definition) of other valuation methods developed in the appraisal. Frequently, transactions must be adjusted using estimated (and reasonable) discounts or premiums to derive a meaningful base of comparison to the subject interest.Guideline Public Company MethodThe Guideline Public Company Method (GPCM) involves the use of valuation metrics from publicly traded companies that are deemed suitably comparable to the subject entity. Direct comparability is difficult to achieve in many situations, as most public companies are larger and more diverse than the subject, closely held entities in most business appraisals. However, the threshold for direct comparability need not be so inflexible that public companies with similar business characteristics are disqualified from providing guidance in the valuation of the subject company. In some cases, public companies may not be reliable for direct valuation purposes but may yield information helpful in ascertaining norms for capital structure assumptions and growth rate analysis.There are relatively few industries in which direct comparability is readily achieved, and most of those present challenges by the sheer scalar differences between the public operators and most private enterprises. The selection of, adjustment of, and application of public company valuation data can be a complicated process involving significant appraiser skill and experience. Absent proper execution, the GPCM can render valuation indications that differ significantly from other methods and thus lead to confusing and/or flawed appraisal results.Guideline companies are most often publicly traded companies in the same or similar industry as the valuation subject and/or that provide a reasonable basis for comparison to the subject company due to similarities in operational processes, supply and demand factors, and/or financial composition.Investors in the public stock markets often study the P/E ratio of a security for purposes of assessing the merits of the investment. The P/E ratio of a stock is utilized in a common variation of the GPCM whereby a guideline public P/E ratio is used to capitalize the subject company’s net income. Other variations include the use of valuation metrics to capitalize pre-tax income, numerous versions of cash flow, book value, revenues, or other performance measures of the valuation subject.Investors in the public securities markets are said to be transacting minority investments (non-controlling) in the issuer’s security, and such investors enjoy the benefit of regulated exchanges and mandatory information disclosures by the issuer. Regular filings by publicly traded companies allow investors to assess the valuation of the security in relation to an almost endless array of operational and financial performance measures for the public company. Guideline company valuation metrics produce marketable minority interest valuation indications. The term “as- if- freely- traded” is often used to describe value indications under the GPCM. Guideline companies are used to develop valuation indications under the presumption that a similar market exists for the subject company and the guideline companies.Ideal guideline companies are in the same business as the company being valued. However, if there is insufficient transaction evidence in the same business, it may be necessary to consider companies with an underlying similarity of relevant investment characteristics such as markets, products, growth, cyclical variability, and other salient factors.Although a guideline group may provide some indication of how the public markets value the subject company’s shares, there are limitations to the method. For example, it is virtually impossible to find identical guideline companies. In addition, analysts must assume that all relevant information about a company is embedded in its market price. A guideline group can sometimes provide useful valuation benchmarks, but it is ultimately left to the analyst to derive an appropriate capitalization factor for a subject company based upon a thorough comparison of the selected group of guideline companies to the subject company.Variations of the Guideline Public Company MethodThe GPCM can be used to develop value indications for both invested (or enterprise) capital and equity capital. There are numerous sub-methods for performing both types of valuations. The nature of the denominator in a guideline valuation metric or ratio determines the nature of the value indication. Consistent with the rules governing proper income method execution (namely, matching the discount rate to the proper measure of the subject’s earnings or cash flows), the benefit stream of the valuation subject should be capitalized by the appropriate guideline valuation metric. Performance measures and benefits streams have one primary differentiating feature – they are either before debt-service costs or after. The performance or benefit measures that capture cash flows before the payment of debt costs (i.e., interest expense) are used to develop value indications for the invested capital (i.e., total assets) of the guideline companies and, therefore, result in the same valuation for the appraisal subject. The performance measures that capture cash flow after debt service are used to develop value indications for equity capital. As with any approach or method that results in a direct valuation of invested capital, debt is subtracted to arrive at the value of equity. Although it is true that a valuation metric can relate a pre-debt cash flow to equity value (and vice versa an after-debt cash flow to invested capital), we view this as a likely source of valuation error and would discourage such methodology unless there is a convincing reason to do so. We would likely disregard the use of the GPCM if such mixing of benefit streams and capitalization factors were the only calculations developed (e.g., price-to-sales or priceto-EBITDA, etc.).Appraisers have the task of developing guideline company cash-flow measures and value metrics in a fashion consistent with the cash flows and valuation math used for the valuation subject. Mismatching the guideline valuation metric with the wrong benefit measure of the subject is a common mistake. Appraisers are encouraged not to take valuation multiples for a given public company or group of companies from a published or electronic data source unless the underlying definition and/or development of the metric is adequately detailed. There can be subtle but meaningful variations in how an appraiser tabulates a benefit measure, such as EBITDA, versus how it was tabulated in the cited source material.Appraisers must also be mindful of understanding the implications of developing guideline company valuation metrics using financial information and pricing data from periods that are reasonably consistent with the benefit measures of the valuation subject. Public market stock pricing conventions follow a rolling four-quarter or 12-month norm. Often, the acronym LTM (last twelve months) or TTM (trailing twelve month) is used to denote that a given cash flow or earnings measure was tabulated using the most recent annualized performance measure of the public company. That is, a given P/E ratio or MVIC/EBITDA ratio is based on the market capitalization as of a defined date and the most up-to-date, 12 month earnings or cash flow measure of the public company.Although it is not absolute that timing of the data used in developing a guideline valuation metric must be applied to the subject’s benefit measure from the same period, it is recommended that this be the base convention in most business valuations. Due to performance fluctuations and the timing of the business cycle (among other things) from the valuation subject to a given peer guideline company group, some appraisers may use average pricing metrics spanning several years for the guideline companies against a similar average of cash flows or earnings for the valuation subject. This type of execution seemingly parallels common disciplines used in various income methods in which an ongoing, average expression of earnings and cash flow is capitalized by a factor whose underlying discount rate and growth rate were derived from data observed over some historical time frame.We urge caution when not following consistency of timing regarding pricing measures and/or benefit streams from subject to peer. For example, when a multi-year average of subject earnings is capitalized using the median LTM P/E ratio from a guideline group, the valuation of the subject can be characterized as being adjusted for fundamentals resulting in a valuation that is higher or lower than would be the case had the LTM P/E ratio been applied to the LTM earnings of the subject. This type of fundamental adjustment is but one of many implicit or indirect adjustments that an appraiser can capture under the GPCM. These adjustments need not be construed as flawed as long as there is adequate purpose and explanation for why such a discipline was employed and perhaps even a calculation of the impact on the valuation indication versus a valuation using the typical timing conventions (i.e., guideline LTM to subject LTM).For valuations in which the GPCM is employed, the guideline data may serve an additional purpose. A properly developed appraisal opinion may have numerous value indications under the cost, income, and market approaches. Value indications from various methods are typically correlated with, or weighted toward an overall valuation conclusion that attempts to reflect the entirety of process and consideration captured in the valuation. Some appraisers have long practiced providing a relative value analysis at the end of their valuation reports that educates the reader on numerous observations of relative value. In such a fashion, the appraiser can present the valuation conclusions from perspectives that extend beyond the direct methodology employed. Accordingly, the appraiser may effectively assert that the conclusions directly developed are consistent with alternative or additional valuation methods that had would support the conclusions reached had such alternative or additional valuation methods been employed.The relative value analysis is often used to articulate the sanity and appropriateness of the conclusions based on comparing various valuation ratios to broad-market norms, market transactions, or public market pricing for similar (guideline) companies. Relating the valuation conclusion to the reported book value of equity, to the adjusted value of tangible equity, to various measures of cash flow, etc. is an often used technique to support the valuation and to provide a basis for explaining why the conclusion reflects or differs from various peer measurements. In some cases, a guideline company group may have been identified but not used directly. Regardless, when such market evidence is reasonably observable, comparing the data and reconciling it against the valuation conclusions can be a useful and informational exercise.For example, consider a valuation in which equal weights were applied to the cost approach (e.g., net asset value method) and the income approach (e.g., direct capitalization of earnings), resulting in a correlated equity value of $8,000,000 (marketable minority interest level of value). The subject has $2,000,000 of debt, implying a market value of invested capital (MVIC or TEV) of $10,000,000. Assume the subject entity has a debt-free net cash flow of $1,000,000, EBIT of $1,667,000, and EBITDA of $2,000,000. The resulting MVIC ratios to EBIT and to EBITDA are approximately 6.0x and 5.0x, respectively. If market data were identified but not directly employed, it may be that the valuation conclusion can be compared and reconciled to the market data. All such comparisons must be assessed using the same level of value for both the guideline peer data and the subject company. The table in Figure 1 presents an example of a multi-method execution of the GPCM. Some of the valuation metrics result in a valuation for equity and some for invested capital. In the example, it is by design that each indication of value is the same. Valuation indications from varying methods within the GPCM will vary, and, in some cases, the variations can be significant. We note that capitalized revenue and capitalized book value will often yield different valuation indications than capitalized earnings or cash flow. In such cases, the appraiser must develop and/or select from those methods and indications believed to be reliable for the appraisal assignment and the definition of value called for therein. Several caveats and considerations are required to properly execute a GPCM.There is a fundamental adjustment of 20% applied to each equity value indication developed under each method. A following section of this publication will provide an overview of how fundamental adjustments for guideline data can be developed.There is a line item for the market values of non-operating assets (and liabilities). Appraisers should apply adjustments to the earnings and other performance measures to eliminate the effects of non-operating assets because the values of such assets are typically captured on the back end of the analysis in order to develop the final indications of value. Failure to adjust the performance measures can result in double counting errors.There is a line item providing for the potential application of a control premium. Such a premium applies only when the engagement definition calls for the controlling interest level of value. The consideration of a control premium at this stage serves as a proxy for other adjustments not otherwise captured in previous adjustments or reflected in the guideline multiples or applied as a subsequent treatment after a correlation of the GPCM with other methods employed in the appraisal. We caution that blind application of published control premiums is a frequent source of flawed, over-stated valuation. Published control premiums are consequential measures of investor expectations for efficiencies and other value pick-ups from the reported transactions. They reflect expectations of post-deal operating and strategic economies. In the context of appropriately adjusted performance measures and other valuation inputs, most financial control premiums for small private companies are quite modest to nil. This can be particularly true in ESOP situations where the entity is remaining an independent going concern and will not benefit from postmerger efficiencies and synergies embedded in most market-based transactions.A memo section in the example displays what each value indication implies on a relative basis by way of comparison of each value method to the subject’s book value, net income, and EBITDA. In this fashion, appraisers and users of valuations can assess how a valuation indication using one valuation metric relates to another.When multiple indications of value are developed using the GPCM, the appraiser may elect to average the indications into a singular expression of value or may elect to carry individual value indications from the GPCM into a broader exercise to correlate the overall conclusion of value from all methods developed using the three core approaches to value. We believe both of these presentations to be appropriate, but we caution that appraisers and report users should be aware of the total consideration applied to each methods and approach.Identifying Guideline CompaniesThe initial stage generally includes the identification of relevant subject company characteristics to serve as a basis for a public company or transaction search. These characteristics include (among other things):The subject entity’s portfolio of products and/or servicesThe subject entity’s vertical and/or horizontal integration in its respective industryThe subject entity’s market share in the industry or in subsets of geography or by customer type, and so forth (to whom and where are the subject’s products and services sold?)The subject entity’s operational and organizational structureThe characteristics outlined in this list can be used to identify codes under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) and North American Industrial Classification Systems (NAICS - used in the United States, Mexico, and Canada). These codes can be used to identify transacting companies and public companies with common economic activities to the valuation subject. Appraisers may need to augment such global screenings with key word searches or perform parallel searches of other SIC or NAICS codes that represent businesses with substantially similar business attributes. Screening of electronic and web-based resources is a virtual standard in valuation practice today. Such resources often include industry data and noteworthy public and private participants. Additional criterion used for selecting and narrowing selections include consideration of the subject’s and the guideline companies’ financial performance and composition, the nature of the assets, the supporting capital structure, trends in absolute and relative performance via size and margin considerations, and consideration of internal and external factors that drive or influence business activity. Choice of Valuation MetricThe valuation metrics applied in a given appraisal should be commonly accepted and recognized as relevant to the subject’s industry (earnings, EBITDA, book, etc.) and should be reflective of business cycle or other relevant issues affecting the subject, its industry, and its guideline peer group. For example, guideline capitalized net income is a common valuation norm for many financial institutions and service companies, while capitalized EBITDA is a more recognized valuation norm for asset-intensive business such as manufacturers. In many valuation engagements, the value of an entity in relation to its book value can be important.The reliance of securities markets on various types of valuation information can shift during economic and industry cycles. Businesses that typically have higher valuations during economic expansions may be valued with higher reliance on capitalized cash flow or earnings, while valuations in recessionary periods or down cycles may place greater reliance on asset-based valuation methods. The point is that valuations performed from one time to another or for one purpose to another may require differing degrees of reliance on and consideration of the GPCM as a whole, as well as differing degrees of reliance on and consideration of varied indications of value underlying the GPCM. A rigid average of underlying methods in the GPCM as well on other methods and approaches in an appraisal may constitute little more than a rule-of-thumb or formulaic approach to value and can lead to flawed valuation results.The Fundamental AdjustmentUnder both the guideline public company method and the guideline transactions method, it is necessary to adjust the market evidence observed in transactions of comparable companies for fundamental differences between the subject company and the guideline companies.Adjusting Guideline Valuation Metrics for Use in Business ValuationWhat is a fundamental adjustment? The term “fundamental adjustment” is not a universal term, but it is a universal treatment applied explicitly or implicitly in virtually every GPCM and guideline transaction method (GTM). Where market-value evidence is observed, screened, and modified for use in the GPCM or GTM, one can be virtually assured that some adjustment has been applied to the data. The adjustment of market-value evidence, whether it is through selection criterion, central tendency observations, or otherwise is what we refer to as a fundamental adjustment. Labels and terms aside, we acknowledge the need for an explanation of how an appraiser adjusts market-value evidence used in the appraisal process. The obfuscation of or failure to consider such adjustment is a common feature of and/or source of error in many appraisals.Figures 2 and 3 provide perspective concerning the conceptual framework of market-value evidence and its adjustment for use in business valuations. Figure 2 relates to the marketable minority level of value that by default is the typical level of value arising from the GPCM. We note that the financial and strategic control levels of value may differ from guideline to subject using the same concepts discussed here.The necessity for fundamental adjustments is frequently overlooked. These adjustments are required to reconcile differences between the subject company and the selected group of guideline companies (or transactions as the case may be). Fundamental adjustments are generally applied as discounts to the observed market-value evidence (reflecting a typically smaller and riskier valuation subject versus larger public companies that populate a guideline company group), but they can also represent premiums in relationship to the base market-value evidence.Core comparative considerations between the valuation subject and the guideline companies include the following:Size. Publicly traded guideline companies are often larger and more diversified than the valuation subject. Diversification and scale regarding geographic footprint, customer concentration, supply inputs, and other common risk factors typically favor guideline public companies and acquirers in transactions. All things being equal, this would imply a lower valuation multiple for a relatively smaller subject entity.Growth. The growth expectations of guideline companies may be materially different than the growth expectations for the subject company. All things being equal and using the basic representative equation of valuation and the underlying elements of a valuation multiple, higher growth translates to higher valuation multiples and vice versa.Access to and Composition of Financing. The ability to obtain financing and negotiate favorable terms can facilitate future growth and provide superior returns on investment. The capital structures and financing power of large public companies can reduce the cost of capital and provide greater operational and strategic flexibility. Such factors translate to higher valuation multiples than may be reasonable for smaller companies lacking such resources.Financial/Operating Strength. Guideline companies may be better capitalized and have greater depth in their respective management teams.The underlying need for fundamental adjustments arises because of differences in the risk profile and growth prospects of the valuation subject in relation to the companies whose trading and transaction data are used in a valuation. By process, the adjustments are developed (through explicit analyses or otherwise) by substituting the risk and growth attributes captured in the guideline data with the risk and growth attributes of the valuation subject. In this fashion, the appraiser attempts to answer the question – how would the market-value evidence differ if the guideline companies and/or the transaction participants had the same risk profile and growth prospects as the valuation subject? This question provides the genesis for understanding a quantitative method for assessing the magnitude of a fundamental adjustment. There are numerous variations of quantitative adjustment and most are predicated on the principle of substitution. Quantitative Process for Assessing a Fundamental AdjustmentAs a preface to the following example, readers are reminded of the build-up and ACAPM methods for developing the required rate of return on equity capital. These CAPM-based disciplines provide the basis for disaggregating the P/E ratios of public companies in a fashion that facilitates the process for substituting the subject risk profile and growth of the subject and determining the effect on the P/E ratio. Such quantification may suggest the magnitude of an appropriate fundamental adjustment. The following assumptions and conditions are used in the example. The figures and assumptions in this example are purely for demonstration purposes.Ten public companies were identified as guideline public companies. The median P/E ratio of the group was 10x. The reciprocal of this P/E ratio equals a capitalization rate of 10%.The median equity market capitalization of the 10 guideline companies would place the hypothetical guideline company near the bottom of 9th decile of public companies according to the Morningstar/ Ibbotson SBBI Yearbook. The 9th decile companies reflected an implied size premium on the order of 4.0% in excess of returns on the S&P500 index (large cap stocks). The median beta was 1.0, implying equal volatility to the S&P500.Financial composition and performance of the subject company were reasonably consistent with the guideline company. The elements of risk were primarily related to differences in firm size.Stock analysts following the guideline companies were projecting annual earnings growth of approximately 10% for the next five years. Long-term industry prospects suggested annual earnings growth on the order of 4%. The guideline growth rate expectations equate to a perpetual earning growth rate of approximately 6%. The implied required rate of return for the hypothetical median guideline company is 16%. This measure of return minus the perpetual growth rate of 6% equals the observed capitalization rate of 10%. The subject company was mature and displayed recent earnings growth of 10%, near-term growth expectations were expected to decline by 1% each year and level out at a long-term growth rate similar to the overall industry (4%). The subject growth rate expectations equate to a perpetual earning growth rate of approximately 5%.At the valuation date, the risk-free rate of return on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds was 5%. The assumed large stock equity premium was assumed to be 7%. The size premium deemed appropriate for the subject company was 6%, and firm-specific risk was assumed to be 1%.The table in Figure 4 depicts the changes in the median guideline P/E ratio via the sequential and combined substitution of subject growth and risk into the build-up process. The differences between the resulting adjusted capitalization factors and the median guideline P/E ratio represents the fundamental adjustment.The risk differential (combined size- and firm-specific) suggests the median guideline P/E ratio be reduced by 23% solely based on the valuation subject’s risk. The growth differential suggests the median guideline P/E ratio be reduced by 9% based solely on the valuation subject’s risk. Considering risk and growth differentials, the median guideline P/E ratio would be reduced by 29%. In operation, this adjustment would be applicable to pricing metrics that result directly in value indications for total equity or could be applied to the resulting equity value derived after subtracting debt from value indications for invested capital. Using the foregoing example, we might see an appraiser use a fundamental adjustment of 15% to 25%. Every situation is unique, and the exact quantified result of this technique is not the absolute adjustment that need apply.Fundamental Adjustments in DisguiseThe following bullet points highlight some of the possible implicit adjustments we see applied to market-value evidence. These points are random in fashion and are designed to spark the necessary analytical curiosity required to scrutinize valuation methods under the market approach.Most appraisers, even those who have never employed the term “fundamental adjustment,” have employed the same concept in appraisals. In fact, any appraiser who has selected guideline company multiples other than the median (or perhaps, the average), whether above or below, has implicitly applied the concept of the fundamental adjustment. Based on comparisons between private companies and guideline groups of companies, appraisers often select multiples above or below the measures of central tendency for the public groups.Analysts routinely add a small stock premium to the base, CAPM-determined market premium based on historical rate of return data. In addition, analysts routinely estimate a specific company risk premium for private enterprises, which is added to the other components of the ACAPM or build-up discount rate. Implicitly, analysts adjust public market return data (from Ibbotson or other sources) used to develop public company return expectations to account for risks related to size and other factors. In other words, they are making fundamental adjustments in the development of discount rates.What are the differences between the subject company and the guideline companies, and how does one incorporate them into the analysis? If all of the guideline companies were identical to one another and the subject company was identical to the guideline companies, then subject value would be equal to the values of the guideline companies. Because this is never the case, the analyst has to identify the important differences and determine what adjustments are required to arrive at a reasonable estimate of value for the subject.The actual value measure applied to the subject may be anywhere within (or sometimes even outside) the range of value measures developed from the market data. Where each measure should fall will depend on the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the subject company relative to analysis of the companies that comprise the market transaction data. Valuation pricing multiples are influenced by the same forces that influence capitalization rates, the two most important of which are: (1) risk and (2) expected growth in the operating variable being capitalized.Therefore, in order for the analyst to make an intelligent estimate of what multiple is appropriate for the subject company relative to the multiples observed for the guideline companies, the analyst must make some judgments about the relative risk and growth prospects of the subject compared with the guideline companies.The analyst should be aware that a search criterion could represent the beginning of a fundamental adjustment in the eyes of potential users of a report. The analyst can unwittingly (or overtly) apply a fundamental adjustment before the mathematical process even begins.As with any discount or premium, a fundamental adjustment has limited meaning unless the base against which the adjustment is applied is clearly defined. Define such base in error, through either commission or omission, and the selection and adjustment of public company valuation metrics may be faulty.Use of generic methodology in lieu of an emphasis on relevant metrics can be construed as a fundamental adjustment.Ultimately, as a result of weighing alternative valuation methods to the ultimate valuation conclusion, the valuation may reflect a significant discount to public company multiples and potentially a higher (or lower as the case may be) fundamental adjustment than explicitly articulated (or implicitly captured) under the guideline method.ConclusionAs with many tools in the valuation, there are variations of this process. Some appraisers may elect to quantify adjustments for application to differing valuation metrics so as to take into consideration specific differences in profit margins or capital structure. Fundamental adjustments can be small or large and can be positive or negative. Appropriate quantification techniques can be useful tools in augmenting qualitative-based adjustments. Fundamental adjustments can be explicit in nature or implicit and disguised in numerous ways. Ultimately, it is the appraiser’s responsibility to select and reasonably adjust market-value evidence for use in the GPCM or the GTM.Guideline Transactions MethodThe transactions method and the GPCM follow a generally recognized (more or less) set of procedures and practices. The guideline transaction method (GTM) is inherently different in its requirements due to potential idiosyncrasies in the underlying data.The largely private purveyors of market-value evidence used in the GTM provide varying degrees of data from varying markets. Transaction events are generally classified by industry, facilitating SIC- and NAICS-enabled screening. However, transaction consideration and various valuation ratios may follow differing definitions. Certain adjustments are required to add or subtract values associated with excluded assets or to compensate for the effect of specialized transaction consideration and other deal terms in order for an appraiser to develop an appropriate valuation of the subject.The required adjustments and considerations vary from one data source to the next. Such adjustment items may include employment contracts, non-compete agreements, contingency payments, seller financing terms, working capital, real estate, specialized expressions of cash flow and other transaction attributes. Care must be taken to ensure that the methodology results in value indications that are consistent with the value definition required in the appraisal description. Appraisers and report users are cautioned that data sources should be reviewed to understand what kind of valuation is captured in the transaction data (typically it is the market value of invested capital) and how that data needs to be adjusted to derive the intended subject valuation (equity value in most valuation engagements). Confusion in the proper use of transaction data bases has fueled a veritable professional niche of publications intended to instruct appraisers on the proper use of market-value evidence from the various databases. This suggests that transaction observations be supported by sufficient (perhaps significant) underlying financial detail.In operation, the GTM is similar to direct capitalization income methods and to the GPCM in that a specified subject performance measure is capitalized by a capitalization factor that is derived from observable market-value evidence (transactions). As with other guideline data processes, capitalization factors are typically drawn from numerous transactions implying some average valuation metric or ratio. Adjustments to reconcile fundamental differences between subject and guideline follow similar considerations as discussed in the GPCM. Differing valuation metrics may be used to describe transaction values based on the nature and industry of buyers and sellers in the cited transactions. As with income methods and other market methods, consistency between performance measures and capitalization multiples is required.Valuations using transaction data result in a controlling interest valuation indication. As such, the GTM may not be employed (or useful) in a valuation intended to develop a minority interest level of value. Alternatively, a controlling interest value can be adjusted by valuation discounts to derive alternative levels of value. Market transactions are used to develop valuation indications under the presumption that a similar market exists for the subject company.As with the guideline public company method, ideal guideline transactions involve companies which that are in the same business as the company being valued. However, if there is insufficient transaction evidence in the same business, it may be necessary to consider companies with an underlying similarity of relevant investment characteristics such as markets, products, growth, cyclical variability, and other salient factors.One or a combination of data sources are typically employed in the GTM. Additionally, there are countless other potential sources of information that are reported by specialized industry trade groups, investments banking concerns, industry consultants, and other market participants. Information may also be gleaned from the corporate development activities of publicly traded buyers and sellers because such data may be reported in SEC filings. There is a wealth of potential information from diverse providers of financial and market market-based information including (among others) SNL Securities, Thomson Reuters, and Bloomberg.Virtually every caveat and caution discussed for the GPCM and the transaction method extend to the GTM (and then some). Appraisers are challenged with adequate documentation of transactions, proper application of the data, and proper adjustment of the results. Many appraisers include citation of transaction data in their reports but may elect to use such data as a supporting element to an appraisal conclusion derived from alternative methodologies. Direct use of transaction data is often reserved for situations in which adequate transaction volume can be observed, the transactions occurred within a reasonable timeframe of the valuation data, and the transaction participants’ data and deals can be reasonably adjusted and reconciled to the valuation subject.
Correlation of Value | Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees
Correlation of Value | Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees
This article first appeared as a whitepaper in a series of reports titled Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees. The correlated indication of value is a value that is arrived at through some reasonable, well-articulated, replicable, and credible process of selection, averaging or otherwise, of the total valuation evidence generated from the valuation methodologies employed. Correlating a valuation conclusion that subsumes all the information, processes, analyses, and market evidence in a valuation engagement is no simple task.The term used by some appraisers for the resulting valuation distillation is “correlated indication of value.”For valuations in which the value methodology directly results in the value definition specified in the engagement, the correlated indication of value may represent the final conclusion of value.For cases in which the value definition differs from the direct results of valuation methodology, the correlated indication of value is typically adjusted by valuation discounts or premiums (typically the former) to develop the value definition specified in the engagement. Figure 1 depicts the typical correlation framework.There are numerous variations and potential interjecting steps and adjustments.In operation, developing a correlated indication of value may appear reasonably straightforward (sometimes it is), but the considerations in the process can reach back to the smallest of details and considerations in the underlying valuation methodologies. A brief review of the global valuation approaches provides a good review for the subsequent observations. Figure 2 presents the three valuation approaches.Global Considerations in the Correlation ProcessThe following provide some global considerations used by many appraisers to navigate the correlation process (which is not to say all are best practices).These points are not listed in any order of significance because the priority of consideration changes with every appraisal.Nature and Industry of the Subject BusinessManufacturing, distribution, retail, service, professional, contracting, etc. Differing business models have differing value drivers and differing financial infrastructures.Some methods will be the primary or sole path to value for some types of businesses.The relative asset-intensity of a business may influence the selection of valuation methods. Manufacturing concerns make capital investments differently than do professional service firms; the methods weighed should reflect this basic reality.All businesses have resources at risk in the marketplace and should by logical extension rely on earnings (cash flow) as the core driver of value.In other words, the capitalized cash flow of the subject company should at least validate the value of underlying net asset value.In a very real sense, the value of capitalized cash flow defines the value of underlying net assets, based on risk, return, and growth parameters.Yet many businesses, at different points in their life cycles, are more appropriately valued based on (or with partial reliance on) underlying net assets.It is the job of the appraiser to determine the driver(s) of value in general and on a given valuation date and to utilize that perspective in fashioning a conclusion.Although all firms employ assets to generate profits, some are better at it than others.The store of value in hard assets can serve to sustain value (or soften downturns) for many types of businesses, particularly in times when profits are low or non-existent.For businesses lacking significant hard assets (and other balance sheet resources), a lack of earnings or cash flow, when coupled with poor business prospects, likely means a lack of value.Businesses that hold assets are typically valued using the appraised values of the underlying assets and/or on asset values that can be readily evidenced from an active, observable market.In such cases, a singular method such as the net asset value method may be employed.Additional analysis based on income and market methods may be used to support valuation discounts that are applied to the direct asset-based value indication.Most closely held businesses are too small or narrow in focus to be valued using the market approach.Accordingly, many (most) appraisals do not employ the guideline public company method. In similar fashion, other market methods may not apply either.Stage of Business Maturity and DevelopmentMature businesses with established performance may be valued using methods that are not appropriate for early stage businesses or businesses in decline.Start-ups or liquidating business should be valued using methods that capture the eventual or ultimate expected economic norms or outcomes for the business.In such cases, there is little correlation required because only one method may be used.Position in Industry or Economic CycleBusinesses that display periodic down cycles may be valued with more weight placed on balance sheet indications of value, particularly when projected performance is uncertain or lacking all together.However, income methods showing little to no value may be weighted as a proxy for lack of control issues (also known as minority interest discount), to capture appraiser concerns regarding the economic obsolescence of assets, or to capture anticipated financial losses for the period of time until a return to profitability or stabilized performance is can be expected to be achieved.The weighting of low-to-no value income methods serves to effectively discount the asset-based method in many valuations.Businesses performing at historic average levels and/or with continuing expectations for stability will likely be valued using income methods or with market methods that focus on earnings and cash flow.Businesses in high or low cycles may be valued using discrete projection methods that adjust the business up or down over time toward a steady state of performance that is more in keeping with proven history or is better aligned with industry performance and/or expectations.Nature of Underlying Adjustments in the Valuation MethodsAll valuation methods require underlying adjustments. Asset-based methods follow a mark-to-market discipline. Income methods may be adjusted for unusual expenses. Projections may be more or less believable in the context of history and external market expectations. Market methods may rely on market evidence that is not directly comparable or is unreliable due to an economic or industry shock.The point is that many valuations include methodologies and results that are more or less speculative than other methods. This can be acute when a business is at a peak or trough in its cycle.Under the ubiquitous standard of fair market value, appraisers must take into account the balance of considerations from both the hypothetical buyer’s and hypothetical seller’s perspectives.Standard and Level of Value (The Value Definition)An appraisal performed using the controlling interest level of value may rely more heavily on the higher value indications than on the lower value indications. This kind of consideration may serve as a proxy for the highest and best use or operation of the underlying business assets.It can also lead to error and/or alleged bias.Conversely, a minority interest value definition may influence the consideration of lower value indications or indications from methods that are believed more reflective of the expectations of investors who lack the prerogatives to bring about the changes or choices that might otherwise increase the indicated value.This too, can lead to error and/or alleged bias.Some appraisals are performed for specific purposes using a standard of value other than fair market value.In such cases, certain methodologies may be dictated and others prohibited.Fair value under FASB reporting requirements may require considerations and perspectives very different than under fair market value.Fair value (yes, a different “fair value”) under operation of law (either by statute or judicial guidance) can vary from state to state and from issue to issue.Dissenter’s rights, marital dissolution, securities fraud, and other matters in which an appraisal is developed for expert consulting or expert witness purposes may require unique valuation considerations and often include specific instruction from legal counsel concerning what “counts” in the calculations and how.In matters requiring a very specific set of defining elements, the value definition must be top of mind when developing or reviewing the work product, which is often a scope of report other than the typical appraisal opinion.The Quality and Availability of Subject Financial DataThe lack of proper financial reporting does not provide license for an appraiser to resort to obtuse measures such as total assets or gross sales as a foundation for establishing value.Some situations may require consideration of broad financial measures and/or somewhat remote market evidence as a basis for speculating on value when the quality of net worth and /or the visibility of cash flow are obscured.Such situations may require the valuation to be qualified as falling short of a formal appraisal opinion under most professional standards.In other cases, an appraiser simply has to operate with the available information.These considerations are based on experience, observations of public and private markets over time, and a dose of informed judgment; differences, both semantic and substantive, can exist from one appraiser to the next.One could ask:When should a valuation not reflect balanced consideration of all approaches and methods?The right answer is – never.It is always helpful to assess the value indications from all approaches and methods in the context of one another.However, consideration and direct reliance are different things.In many cases, there is simply not ample information, market evidence, or cause to develop values under each approach.Appraisers owe the users of their reports a credible explanation of where reliance was placed and in what proportion.There are times when financial information and valuation evidence suggest that brevity is the high road and that too much analysis along lines that are ultimately not relied upon in the valuation is confusing or misleading.Appraisers simply must use the judgments extended them by the appraisal standards to present a complete picture of the relevant methodological landscape.However, appraisers and their audiences benefit from the use of a core set of processes and considerations for deriving and displaying the correlation of value.The table in Figure 3 is provided for perspective.We note that the valuation of most business enterprises is ultimately driven by the economic returns generated on the assets that comprise the business.As such, the income approach is the primary indicator of value in most business appraisals where the business is a going concern and not simply a fund of underlying net assets.Unfortunately, the income approach can be difficult to model in certain circumstances such as a recession.For ESOP appraisals, the above perspectives can be shift based on the comfort and confidence of the appraiser/trustee in the company’s ability to maintain a sustainable ESOP benefit.Repurchase obligations ultimately require cash flow.Depending on the overall design and management of the ESOP plan, appraisers and trustees are cautioned when relying on asset-based value indications without taking into consideration the ability of the company to sustain the asset base when cash flows fall short of servicing the ESOP’s needs, let alone the needs of the business.ESOP companies that experience a decline in business activity and which have little prospects of recovering to past performance levels (or worse, remaining a going concern) should likely include consideration of a liquidation premise.The liquidation premise is often developed and studied using an asset value perspective, adjusted for the time-value and liquidation consequences that could befall the assets as they are sold.Such a premise need not be a death sentence for the ESOP or the Company, but may relevant to consider during a time of reorganization for the sponsor company.When businesses are displaying significant volatility and/or a fundamental change in business posture (particularly on the downside), appraisers and trustees are encouraged to communicate about the underlying methodology and the potential need to redefine the level and premise of value for the appraisal.Such changes could materially rebalance the consideration of the underlying approaches and methods toward the conclusion.Correlation ExamplesFollowing are some typical examples of a correlated indication of value.We have provided differing examples based on varying scenarios.The numerical values and weights are for demonstration purposes; the weights applied are not based on any rigid formula and will vary for each appraisal based on the totality of underlying factors for each appraisal.Example 1 in Figure 4. Small to medium service business; stable market, consistent performance and expectations; valuation definition is FMV minority interest, correlated value before discount for lack of marketability. Example 2 in Figure 5. Small distribution business; challenging market conditions and sub-par expectations; company owns real property and other fungible assets; valuation definition is FMV minority interest, correlated value before discount for lack of marketability.Example 3 in Figure 6.Large producer of value-added capital assets; stable markets and expectations; advanced financial management and capital resources; value definition is FMV minority interest, correlated value before discount for lack of marketability.In Figure 6, we can see that the income approach was allocated two-thirds of overall weighting. Looking deeper, if the GPCM exclusively considered cash flow calculations (say net earnings and EBITDA), then income measures were effectively weighted 100 percent in the overall valuation; the only difference being the specificity of the market evidence used to value the income and cash flows.For cases in which the GPCM is used, there may be reasons that some calculations should receive greater underlying consideration than others (say capitalized book value rather than EBITDA).This may simply be a variation of the same theme of shifting weights between asset-based and income-based methods to address issues related to business and economic cycles.Variations on these examples are almost endless.There are often circumstances in which value indications vary greatly and require thoughtful explanation about why a value that appears at one end of a spectrum was exclusively weighted.In some cases, a simple average might be appropriate but appraisers should be cautious when averaging a potentially non-meaningful indication with a meaningful indication. Rarely does the averaging of an unreliable indication make the end result correct unless additional explanation and support are provided about how the resulting correlation relates to the most meaningful valuation evidence.Accordingly, a relative value analysis, as in Figure 7, may be a useful tool in helping explain how each indication relates to other indications.Let us expand on the third example with some additional information to see how the various indications compare to each other.Such a comparison could be used in an iterative fashion to reach a final weighting scenario as well as to provide support for the conclusions reached in the report.Note that the relevant comparisons are being made at the marketable minority interest level of value. At the marketable minority interest level of value, the subject’s relative value measures can be directly compared to the relative value measures of the guideline public companies. Relative value assessments that compare subject valuation results to peer valuation evidence must be performed using an appropriate and comparative level of value for both the subject and the peer.Section 5 of Revenue Ruling 59-60 addresses the weight to be accorded to various factors in an appraisal.In the context of an operating company appraisal, judgment is required to reconcile what may be diverging indications of value among the various valuation approaches (or even methods within a single approach or method).Although averaging widely diverging indications of value from various valuation methods may be appropriate in a particular valuation, appraisers should assess why such large differences exist.Do indications from the market approach suggest that assumptions made in methods within the income approach be revisited?Or do the results from an income approach shed light on the appropriate fundamental adjustment (or selection of guideline companies)?Within the market approach, indications of value can vary widely, depending on the financial measure capitalized.The appraiser may glean hints with respect to the weight to a particular indication by considering why such differences occur.Differences between indications derived from capitalized net income and EBIT are a function of the financing mix. Differences between indications derived from EBIT and EBITDA may reveal varying degrees of asset intensity.Capitalized revenue measures provide a view of “normalized” margins – are the margins of the subject company likely to improve or deteriorate?Finally, capitalizing measures of physical volume (number of subscribers or units sold, for example) could reveal unit-pricing disparities between the subject and the selected guideline companies.There can be no fixed formula for weighing indications of value from various valuation methods.Responsible appraisers, recognizing this, should apply common sense and informed judgment in developing a correlated indication of value. ConclusionGiven the potential diversity of valuation evidence and methodology in most business appraisals, a well-reasoned and adequately documented process is required to support the initial and final valuation conclusions derived in a business valuation. In this publication we provided insight on the functional processes and analytical considerations underlying the determination of a correlated indication of value. Additionally, we discussed methods and perspectives that can be used to justify the underlying methodology and valuation evidence relied upon while providing relative value observations to support the reasonableness of a valuation conclusion.
Valuation Discounts and  Premiums in ESOP Valuation | Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees
Valuation Discounts and Premiums in ESOP Valuation | Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees
This article first appeared as a whitepaper in a series of reports titled Appraisal Review Practice Aid for ESOP Trustees. There is a protracted and clouded legacy of information and dogma surrounding the universe of discounts and premiums in business valuation. It seems logical enough that as elements of business valuation, the underlying quantification and development of discounts and premiums should be financial in basis, just as other valuation methods are founded on financial principles. Much of the original doctrine surrounding the determination of discounts and premiums was based on reference to varying default information sources, whose purveyors continue the ongoing compilation of transaction evidence (public company merger and acquisition activity, restricted stock transactions, pre-IPO studies, etc.). After begrudging bouts of evolution, there has been maturation toward more disciplined and methodical support for valuation discounts and premiums. Perhaps as the state of the profession concerning discounts and premiums has progressed, so, too, has the divide in skill and knowledge among valuation practitioners become wider. Certainly this seems to be the case regarding many users and reviewers of appraisal work (ostensibly the legal community, the DOL and the IRS). There remains ample debate concerning numerous issues in the discount and premium domain. Unfortunately, in the quest for better clarification on the determination of discounts and premiums there has developed an arms’ race of sorts. Despite the emergence of compelling tools and perspectives, no method or approach appears to have the preponderance of support in the financial valuation community. Nowhere is this truer than with the marketability discount (also known as discount for lack of marketability or DLOM). Within the ESOP community much of the confusion over DLOMs is mitigated due to the presence of put options designed to ensure reasonable liquidity for ESOP participants. However, in the ESOP community a legacy of concern over control premiums has now become an acute issue as stakeholders and fiduciaries have increasing concerns regarding flawed valuations and prohibited transactions.The Levels of ValueRegarding the concept of control premiums and minority interest discounts (also known as “lack of control discounts”), there is less conflict and more uniformity on how and when these discounts are used in a business appraisal. That is not to say that differences among appraisers don’t exist regarding certain issues. For purposes of establishing a platform to converse on valuation discounts and premiums, let us use the conventional levels of value framework to anchor the discussion. Figure 1 provides structure about where the traditional valuation discounts and premiums are applied in the continuum of value.The integration of the basic income equation of value into the levels value chart results in the equations and relationships shown in Figure 2. It is here that we can begin to understand that valuation discounts and premiums are not devices in and of themselves. Each is the product (consequence) of the relationships among and between the underlying modeling elements that constitute financial valuation(cash flow, risk and growth). We note that the conceptual core of the mathematical relationships is generally centered on the freely traded world of the public stock markets, which is characterized as the “marketable minority” level of value (enjoying readily achievable liquidity in a regulated, timely, and efficient market). Although other levels of value can be directly observed in various markets, the marketable minority interest level of value characterizes the empirical world from which most valuation data and observations are made (i.e., Ibbotson).CF = cash flow; CFe= cash flow to the business enterprise; CFsh = cash flow to the shareholder; subscript “c,f” and c,s” denote, respectively, CF available to financial control investors and CF available to strategic control investors.R = risk as expressed by the required rate of return on investment; Rmm, Rfand Rsdenote risk as perceived through the eyes of marketable minority investors, financial control investors and strategic investors, respectively.G = growth rate in cash flow or value (see notes above on “R”). Gmm, Gfand Gsdenote growth as expected from the perspective of marketable minority investors, financial control investors and strategic investors, respectively. Gv differs from the other growth expressions in that it is an expression of the growth rate in value for the subject security in an appraisal exercise. All other expressions of “G” are growth rates in the cash flow of the business enterprise.The take away from the relationships depicted in Figure 2 is that risk is negatively correlated to value (the universal reality of the time value of money) and that cash flow and the growth rate in cash flow are positively correlated to value. According to the preceding relationships, a control premium only exists to the degree that control investors reasonably expect some combination of enhanced cash flows, lower risk, or superior growth in cash flow, all as a result of better financial and operational capacity (financial control). Taking the financial control relationships one step higher via specific synergies results in a strategic control premium (which is not considered within the continuum of fair market value and generally exceeds adequate consideration for ESOP transaction purposes). Conversely, a marketability discount exists to the degree that investors anticipate subject returns (yield and capital appreciation) that are sub-optimal in comparison to the returns of a similar investment whose primary differentiating characteristic is that it is freely traded (also known as liquid). That is to say, minority investors (buyers and sellers) in closely held businesses that have investment-level considerations such as higher risks, lower yield, and/or lower value growth require some measure of compensation to compel a transaction in the subject interest. Otherwise, the investor would seek an alternative.Perspective on the Control PremiumWhat is a control premium? The American Society of Appraisers (ASA) defines a control premium as an amount or a percentage by which the pro rata value of a controlling interest exceeds the pro rata value of a non-controlling interest in a business enterprise, to reflect the power of control. In practice, the control premium is generally expressed as a percentage of the marketable minority value.Based on this definition, it might seem that no controlling interest valuation can be developed without an explicit quantification to increase a value that is initially developed using a marketable marketable-minority interest level of value. This might be true in for circumstances in which the control value is not the direct result of the underlying methods. The fact is that most controlling interest value appraisals are developed based on adjustments and methods that result directly in the controlling interest level of value. Therefore, no explicit control premium is required. Consequently, the appraiser cannot explicitly define the magnitude of the control premium in the appraisal.In many cases, the appraiser may state that no control premium is added because all the features and benefits of control have been captured in the earnings adjustments and/or through other modeling assumptions in the underlying methods. We have seen numerous situations in which an appraiser was accused of failing to develop a control valuation because there is no explicit control premium applied to the correlated value or to the individual methods that are weighed in the correlation of value. Archaic though it may be in the context modern valuation practice, such accusations still exist even when the valuation features all the perfunctory control adjustments and treatments. For cases in which normalization and control adjustments were applied to cash flows and other elements, the additional application of a discrete control premium implies that there are further achievable control attributes. In such cases the control premium is likely quite small in comparison to typical published measures. If control adjustments are applied and a control premium is also applied, there is a potential overstatement in the valuation. This type of circumstance is a hot bed issue with the Department of Labor as such treatments could be the underpinning of a prohibited transaction. Appraisers and trustees are cautioned about the potential for double counting when applying an explicit control premium.The primary published source for control premium measurements is Mergerstat Review,published annually by Mergerstat FactSet. Mergerstat Review reports control premiums from actual transactions based on differences between public market prices of minority interests in the stock of subsequently acquired companies prior to buyout announcements and actual buyout prices. It is worth noting that Mergerstat’s analysis indicates that higher premiums are paid for public companies than for private concerns because publicly traded companies tend to be larger, more sophisticated businesses with solid market shares and strong public identities. From a levels-of-value perspective, most of the transactions reported in Mergerstat Review are believed to contain elements of strategic value, which explains the relatively high level of control premiums cited therein. This strategic attribute of the data also makes it potentially troublesome when relied upon in ESOP appraisals.Noteworthy is the now widely accepted presumption that public stock pricing evidence is reflective of both the marketable marketable-minority and controlling financial interest levels of value. Referring to the expanded levels of value chart, minority interest discounts and financial control premiums are thought to be much lower in comparison to annually published data in Mergerstat Review.Thus, the two central boxes in the four-box vertical array of the expanded levels of value chart are essentially overlapping as in Figure 3.The parity of value between financial control and marketable minority requires a few assumptions: normalized earnings adjustments are required, and these adjustments include some considerations that certain appraisers believe are not part of the minority interest equation (namely owners’ and executive compensation). We believe that return on labor and return on capital are reasonable to segregate in valuations based on all levels of value. However, there may be differences between financial control and marketable minority valuations based on enterprise capital structure. There may be some consideration for the lack of liquidity to both control and minority investors when adjusted income streams overstate the real economic cash flows available for distribution or other shareholder-level benefits (including cash flows necessary to sustain an ESOP). There may be some justifiable difference in value for situations in which the valuation subject’s capital structure appears more conservative than its peers. However, wanton manipulation of capital structures (for example, in the development of a weighted average cost of capital or WACC) in deriving the cost of capital is a frequent source of error in appraisals using a discounted future benefits (DFB) method. Such errors can lead to under- or over-valuation.Control Premiums — Substance Over FormMost appraisals that employ a controlling interest level of value definition do not (or should not) display a discrete or explicit control premium. That is because the adjustment processes underlying most individual valuation methods provide for the full consideration of control and thus do not require or justify further adjustment in the form of an explicitly applied control premium. So, despite the lack-of-control form that many control appraisals have, there is ample structure within the methodologies to capture the substance of a control premium. The following perspective plays off the basic equation to business valuation as well as the levels of value chart that depicts the relationships between risk, growth, and cash flow as one moves up and down the levels of value conceptual framework.Control premiums can be the result of earnings adjustments that eliminate discretionary expense, such as excess and non-operating compensation. Shareholder compensation paid to individuals who do not contribute to operations or management, directors’ fees paid to family or others for non-vital roles, management fees paid to retired owners, loan guarantee fees paid to shareholders whose capital resources are not required, and other similar types of expenses are often the underlying control “pick-up” in an appraisal. Arguably, many of these adjustments should be part of the normalizing process for all appraisals so that returns on capital are clearly differentiated from returns on labor. When such adjustments are used to underpin an ESOP transaction, subsequent expenses and policies of the ESOP sponsor in future periods should confirm the credibility of the adjustments.Control premiums can take the form of adjustments that place related party income and expense at arm’s length pricing. Rents paid to related parties, management fees paid to affiliated entities, optimizing value or discretionary income from non-operating assets, and many similar adjustments that optimize the subject benefit stream are all part of the control mindset.Control premiums can be related to the optimization of capital structure. Many businesses enjoy the quality of having little to no interest interest-bearing debt. Perhaps in the paradigm of today’s financial landscape, this is a better quality than previously appreciated. However, if a hypothetical investor can easily use debt in an efficient and responsible fashion to provide for the financial needs of the business, the subject’s cost of capital may be reduced and correspondingly, the return on equity of the business can be improved. That is not to say that increased debt, as low cost as it may be, does not increase the potential risk profile of equity holders. All things equal, a reasonable blend of debt in the capital structure for a bankable group of assets and cash flow will provide a potential enhancement of return on equity. Many appraisals that refer to public company debt ratios or to private peer balance sheet ratios to support an assumed capital structure that is different than actually employed at the subject entity. This can constitute a control premium. However, when taken too far or when assumed in a fashion that does not properly capture the incremental risk that a higher level of debt has on equity investors, the manipulation of capital structure can result in material valuation flaws.Control premiums can emerge from weights applied in the correlation of value. In many cases, the valuation methods used to value a business result in similar value indications for both control and minority situations. However, a control valuation may include differing weights on the value indications such that the correlated value is higher than would result from the weighting scenario applied in a minority interest appraisal. Additionally, if a guideline transaction method is used in a control valuation and is weighed toward the correlation of value, the resulting value may represent a premium to the other indications of value developed in the appraisal.In tandem, capital structure efficiencies, income and expense efficiencies, and the consideration of peer transaction evidence are significant, albeit seemingly silent, control premiums.Perspective on the Minority Interest DiscountWhat is a minority interest (lack of control) discount? The ASA defines a minority interest discount as the difference between the value of a subject interest that exercises control over the company and the value of that same interest lacking control (but enjoying marketability). In practice, the minority interest discount is expressed as a percentage of the controlling interest value. A minority interest is an ownership interest equal to or less than 50 percent of the voting interest in a business enterprise (or less than the percentage of ownership required to control the assets and/or the discretionary expense structure of a business).As with the control premium, the minority interest discount is infrequently called upon in the valuation (as an explicit treatment) of most operating businesses because the majority of methodologies used to value nonmarketable minority interests results in an initial value at the marketable minority interest level of value. Accordingly, only a discount for marketability is required to derive the end nonmarketable minority valuation result.Minority interest discount discounts are a more common feature in the valuation of certain types of investment holding entities such as limited partnerships. This is because such entities have highly diverse purposes versus the relatively narrow operating focus of most operating business models. As such, the assets owned by the entity are generally best appraised by a specialty appraiser or from direct observation of market evidence concerning the asset. That being the case, most such entities are valued using an asset-based approach, which inherently captures the controlling interest level of value for the underlying assets. This makes it necessary for the business valuation to be adjusted first for lack of control considerations and second for lack of marketability concerns. Additionally, in cases involving operating business that hold operating and/or non-operating real property assets, such assets may need to be appraised by an appropriate expert and adjusted with a minority interest discount when integrated into the minority interest enterprise value of an operating business.Although minority interest considerations are captured in the majority of appraisals by reference to returns on marketable interest investments in the public marketplace, there are techniques for developing the discount. One such method involves mathematically imputing the discount based on an assumed control premium. Other methods involve observations of securities trading values in the context of the valuation of the issuer’s underlying assets, such as the case with closed closed-end funds and other securities in which underlying assets have an observable value that can be compared to the security’s trading price.The following formula provides an expression of the percentage minority interest discount as a function of an assumed percentage control premium. Although the expression is useful in identifying the minority interest discount as a percentage of an assumed or developed measure of control value, it is rarely used in a direct sense in the valuation of minority interests.In the valuation of minority interests in asset investment entities (limited partnerships et al.) that are invested in various classes of assets, many appraisers look to the observed discount to net asset value (NAV, the market value of a fund’s asset holdings less its liabilities) that closed-end funds (CEF) typically trade at as evidence of an applicable minority interest discount for a subject partnership or similar ownership interest. As a general rule, CEFs report their net asset values and the price-to-NAV relationship typically reflects a discount. Observed discounts to NAV reflect the consensus view of the marketplace toward minority investments in the underlying portfolios of securities. That is, the discounts are illustrative of the market’s discounting of fractional interests in assets, making them somewhat comparable to a minority interest in an entity that is heavily invested in other assets (such as marketable securities and other asset classes).Discounts to net asset value for closed-end funds have been consistently observable for many years. The precise reasons for such discounts are subject to debate, but common attributes include the following factors:A lack of investor knowledge about the underlying portfolio;Absence of investor enthusiasm about the underlying portfolio;Enthusiasm, or lack thereof, about the fund’s manager;Expense ratios;Tax liabilities associated with embedded gains;Lack of management accountability; andLack of investment flexibilityAlthough closed-end funds may not be directly comparable to the subject interest in an appraisal, the discounts typically observed are evidence of the market’s discounting of portfolios of generally liquid securities, and, therefore, offers valid indirect evidence of minority interest discounts applicable to asset-holding entities and operating businesses.Marketability DiscountsThe ASA defines a marketability discount as an amount or percentage deducted from the value of an ownership interest to reflect the relative absence of marketability. Augmenting the consideration of marketability is the concept of liquidity, which the ASA defines as the ability to readily convert an asset, business, business ownership interest, security, or intangible asset into cash without significant loss of principal. Lack of marketability and lack of liquidity overlap in many practical regards. However, lack of liquidity is often attached to a controlling interest, while marketability discounts are used to describe minority interests.Despite the proliferation of marketability discount studies and models, most models fall into one of three primary categories. These categories are based on the underlying nature of the analysis or evidence from which each model emanates. They include market-based perspectives (commonly referred to as benchmark analysis), options-based models, and income-based (rate of return) models. Although it is not our place to define a given model as the model, we do recognize that some models (or perspectives) provide general guidance for the appraiser regardless of the specific model employed. The following is a list of the so-called Mandelbaum factors, which are derived from the Tax Court’s ruling in Mandelbaum v. Commissioner (T.C. Memo 1995-255, June 12, 1995). In essence, these factors serve a similar guidepost for the assessment of marketability, as does Revenue Ruling 59-60 for the valuation of closely held interests in general.The value of the subject corporation’s privately traded securities vis-à-vis its publicly traded securities (or, if the subject corporation does not have stock that is traded both publicly and privately, the cost of a similar corporation’s public and private stock);An analysis of the subject corporation’s financial statements;The corporation’s dividend-paying capacity, its history of paying dividends, and the amount of its prior dividends;The nature of the corporation, its history, its position in the industry, and its economic outlook;The corporation’s management;The degree of control transferred with the block of stock to be valued;Any restriction on the transferability of the corporation’s stock;The period of time for which an investor must hold the subject stock to realize a sufficient profit;The corporation’s redemption policy; andThe cost of effectuating a public offering of the stock to be valued, e.g., legal, accounting, and underwriting fees.This list extends to considerations beyond the pure question of marketability. However, the ruling is instructive in its breadth. The Mandelbaum process is characterized by many appraisers as a qualitative or scoring procedure. However, most of the parameters are mathematically represented by financial elements and assumptions under the income- and options-based models. Such parameters are also used, to the degree possible, in searching out market evidence from restricted stock transactions, which are documented in varying degrees by numerous studies over several decades. Benchmarking analysis relies primarily on pre-IPO studies and restricted stock transactions. In essence, benchmarking calls for the use of market-based evidence to determine a lack of marketability discount. Some appraisers have pointed out the oxymoron of benchmarking (market transactions) analysis for use in determining marketability discounts. On the same note, other appraisers cite the restricted stock studies for capturing market evidence that at its core demonstrates the diminution to value associated with illiquidity. Imputed evidence concerning the implied rates of return for restricted stock lends support for more specific analyses within certain marketability models. Options-based models, most of which are derivations and evolutions of the Black Scholes Option Model, are based on assessing the cost to insure future liquidity in the subject interest. Rate return models are based on modeling the expected returns to the investors as a means for determining a valuation that results in an adequate rate of return given the investment attributes of the subject interest. There is no one method that is acknowledged as superior to all others. Indeed, virtually every method employed in the valuation universe has been challenged or debated in the courts as well as by and among the professional ranks of appraisers. Perhaps the best approach, stemming from a review of the IRS’s DLOM Job Aid, which was discovered and published a few years ago, is the use of multiple disciplines in a fashion consistent with the breadth of valuation approaches called for in business valuation (principally the income and market approaches).DLOMs in ESOP ValuationNotwithstanding the previous perspectives on DLOMs and the methods and processes for developing them, most ESOP appraisals that involve a minority interest definition of value reflect a relatively minimal DLOM of 5-10%. This is due to the obligatory put option feature required for qualified retirement plans holding closely held employer stock.The virtual guarantee of a market for the ESOP participants’ interests is believed to all but eliminate the DLOM. The consensus treatment from most appraisers is that a DLOM applies and is relatively small (say 5-10%) but not 0%.Some appraisers use the DLOM as a proxy for concerns about future liquidity as it relates to the sponsor company’s ESOP repurchase obligation. If a business is floundering, has a significant bubble of participants requesting near-term liquidity, has pour cash flow, has limited financial resources or financing options, and/or any other underlying fundamental challenge, some appraisers will use a DLOM to reflect this concern.DLOMs quantified in the correct fashion may indeed be a viable approach to capturing the cash flow needed to service repurchase obligations and the associated effect on the sustainable ESOP benefit (the stock value). However, many appraisers use a more direct and explicit approach to studying and treating the repurchase obligation by iterating the associated expense into the valuation modeling (generally using an income method).The expense is determined through a repurchase obligation study which informs trustees, sponsors, and plan administrators what measure of cash flow will service the foreseeable needs of the plan. To the degree that the assumed ongoing retirement plan funding is insufficient to service the obligation, an additional expense may be applied or a single present-value adjustment may be quantified to adjust the total equity value of the business.ConclusionThe application of a discount or premium to an initial indication of value is an often controversial and necessary input to the valuation process. Fortunately, appraisers are equipped with numerous income and market methodologies to derive reasonable estimates of the appropriate discount or premium for the subject interest.As with the determination of the initial indication of value, it is ultimately up to the valuation analyst to choose the appropriate methodology based on the facts and circumstances of the subject interest.None of the available methodologies are perfect, and all of them are subject to varying degrees of criticism from the courts and members of the appraisal community. Critics of the various market approaches often cite the lack of contemporaneous transaction data that are rarely comparable or applicable to the subject interest.Arguments against the income methodologies often focus on the model’s inputs, particularly the holding period assumption, which is typically uncertain for most private equity investments.The number of discount methodologies and their respective criticisms will, in all likelihood, continue to expand into the foreseeable future. It is ultimately up to the appraiser to consider the various options and determine the appropriate model or study applicable to the subject interest.There are no hard-and-fast rules or universal truths that are applicable to all appraisals when it comes to the selection of an appropriate discount methodology. Appraiser judgment is ultimately the most critical input to any valuation, particularly in regard to the application of an appropriate discount methodology or control premium.Admittedly, the number of discount methodologies and their corresponding criticisms can be a bit overwhelming to anyone unaccustomed to reviewing or writing business valuation reports.At the end of the day, the most important thing to keep in mind is how reasonable the discount (or premium) is in light of the liquidity and/or ownership characteristics of the interest being appraised.An appraisal may have carefully considered all the pertinent discount methodologies and their criticisms, but if the ultimate conclusion is not reasonable or appropriate for the subject interest, it will probably not hold up in court or communicate meaningful information for the end user of the report. Appraisers should investigate the reasonableness of their conclusions when preparing valuation reports and related analyses.
Minority Value Multiples Can Trade Higher Than Enterprise Value Multiples: Sometimes it’s Cheaper to Buy the Whole Company
Minority Value Multiples Can Trade Higher Than Enterprise Value Multiples: Sometimes it’s Cheaper to Buy the Whole Company
Many investors, analysts and business appraiser’s believe1 that publicly traded price multiples / minority equity value multiples can be used to estimate enterprise value, control level value of a business, or by simply applying an incremental premium for control to a selected publicly traded minority multiple. Typically this method can be done by using a sample of comparable publicly traded companies, observing a range of P/E2 multiples and selecting a multiple within the range or typically by analyzing enterprise transaction multiples. At this point, a simple premium for control is applied and market value of debt is added to arrive at an enterprise value.For example, if a sample of comparable publicly traded companies has a P/E multiple range of 10x to 14x and the appraiser selects 12x, he would then apply a premium for control of 25% (historically observed average in studies), add the market value of debt and arrive at an enterprise value multiple north of 15x earnings.However, this mathematical calculation many times is not a supportable method to estimate a marketplace transaction for enterprise value.As business appraisers, our job is to “Mirror the Marketplace” when valuing businesses. In doing so, the above methodology and the implicit assumption made is that minority value serves as a reasonable baseline, or starting point, for enterprise value. Very few appraisers understand that the most accurate explanation of the relationship between minority value and enterprise value is that there is no functional relationship between minority multiples and enterprise value.Why is this explanation true?The reason is based on stock market dynamics and trading history, but primarily because: The economic and financial drivers that influence an enterprise buyer are fundamentally different than a minority buyer. List of drivers for the typical minority buyer:Has a contained and restricted insight into earnings and growth prospects;Has limited or nearly no insight into the long term business plan & its associated risks;May have controlled information into the competitive environment; andMay have narrow views into the future outlook for new products, pricing strategies and risk profile, etc. The opposite is often true for the enterprise buyer. These factors have a significant and dramatic impact on enterprise value. As a result, there are times when a minority price pro-rata can significantly exceed what a prudent enterprise level buyer will pay, pro-rata, for a company. Vice versa, there are times when the enterprise value can be much more than the amount indicated by an application of an average premium for control percentages.Case StudyA publicly traded restaurant company operated 22 locations across the U.S. After a brief due diligence period, it was discovered that two of these locations generated 3x to 4x the profit of an average company store, 40% of the total company annual cash flow and had short-terms remaining on their leases (3 and 5 years). These two locations were also unique in they were located in a resort area, with a landlord who had a history of increasing rent dramatically, to “milk out” the excess profits, after the initial lease period. This piece of information was not known to the public as it was a trade secret of the landlord and lessor, but not shared with the public. Therefore, it was likely that the future profits of the restaurant company from current stores would go down significantly at the end of the current lease period. As a consequence, the value, and its associated multiples, to a prudent enterprise buyer would be substantially less than the minority multiples observed in the public market.In contrast to the above case study, there are other times when new products are coming online with risk and growth prospects that are not reflected in current or historical earnings. As a consequence, when the new products hit the market, the earnings may jump and significantly increase the enterprise value above and beyond the observed minority price.ConclusionAs a result of the above Case Study, it is clear that an appraiser must go through a proper due diligence process to understand of the impact of the cost, income, and market approach to truly understand the enterprise value of a company. It is also clear that assuming a publicly traded minority value as a reasonable basis to calculate enterprise value can lead to a significant error in due diligence and negatively impacts the credibility of an enterprise value opinion.This article was originally published in Valuation Viewpoint, July 2014.Footnotes1 Based on studies and articles 2 Price to Earnings Ratios
How to Choose the Best Business Appraiser
How to Choose the Best Business Appraiser
Are you considering buying or selling an operation, have a gift or estate tax issue, buying or selling a minority equity interest in an operation, or have fair value or fair market value-related financial reporting requirements for either GAAP or tax purposes?If so, a fundamental question exists: How much is your business and assets worth? To find out, you need the experience and expertise of a business valuation expert – a business appraiser.Small businesses and big corporations often don’t know what to expect when choosing a business appraiser. Two critical questions to ask are: (1) How do I know if they are qualified; and (2) What should an appraisal cost? Appraisers play a vital role in the market, and choosing one takes a little knowledge and lots of comparing to get comfortable with your selection.Look for Professional CertificationsMany business owners, attorneys and advisers aren’t sure what qualifications a trustworthy expert business appraiser should have. Just as accountants and doctors might use CPA and M.D., respectively, business appraisers often have a set of initials confirming they have received extensive training and/or have ample experience in their field. These certifications span a broad range, but they all indicate that the business appraiser knows what he or she is doing. Here’s an overview of common certifications:ASA (Accredited Senior Appraiser) – Issued by the American Society of Appraisers (ASA). To earn this prestigious certification, applicants must have a 4-year degree, 5 years of business appraisal experience; take 96 hours of ASA’s rigorous course sets and 12 hours of oral and written exams. They must also interview with their local ASA chapter, pass an ethics test, and submit two appraisal reports before their peers. In addition, active ASAs must complete additional courses on an ongoing basis to keep their designation.CBA (Certified Business Appraiser) – Issued by the Institute of Business Appraisers (IBA). Holders must be an active member of the IBA, have a 4-year business degree, complete 6 hours of various workshops and training programs, pass the CBA exam, have submitted two demonstration reports and have 5 years of appraisal experience or 90 hours of class time. Requirements may be lessened for those who hold other business appraisal certifications prior to application.CPA/ABV (Certified Public Accountant Accredited in Business Valuation) – Issued by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA). Holders must have a valid CPA, complete the ABV exam, work on ten engagements and meet business valuation experience and education requirements.CVA (Certified Valuation Analyst) – Issued by the National Association of Certified Valuation Analysts (NACVA). Holders must have a valid CPA or relevant business degree, at least three personal and business references, has passed a proctored exam and two years or ten engagements of business appraisal experience. Obviously these certificates have vastly different levels of experience to satisfy the designation. Be sure and know the difference when selecting your appraiser. Of course, these certifications aren’t tell-all determinants of an appraiser’s skill or qualifications. Not all ASAs are equally experienced in the same industry. Consider their work experience, industry experience and client references. Review their website and publications made by the appraiser. While experience and expertise are really important, credentialing provides added support in litigation environment before the court, the IRS or when subjected to auditor review.Beware of Right-Hand AppraisersMake sure that your business appraiser exercises complete objectivity when appraising your firm. An appraiser’s job isn’t to promote you, but to give an unbiased assessment of your organization’s worth. Unruly “right-hand” appraisers may overstate the value of your business for personal gain. These tactics created quite the turmoil in the late 80s real estate market. Homes were frequently overvalued, encouraging banks to hand out heftier loans. When the decade turned, the market crashed.This is another area where certifications can help. Business appraisers with professional certifications are bound by a code of ethics that prohibits right-handing and other shady practices. Non-certified appraisers may also operate by these ethics, but it’s not guaranteed. Remember that appraisers aren’t on the side of buyers, sellers or loan officers; they work for the good of the free market. Before you sign anything, read the appraisal agreement and verify that there is an independence clause.Know the CostsDepending on who you hire, a business valuation can cost between a few thousand to well into the six figures, depending upon the scope of the project. The more services you require, especially those for litigation purposes, the more your appraiser will charge. Especially in “high-stake” situations, most often litigation, the credentials, experience and expertise of your valuation expert matter. Selecting a low-cost provider is often “penny wise and pound foolish” as the results may cost more in the end. Also, keep in mind that litigation services can run hundreds of dollars per hour and can easily skyrocket if proceedings drag on.Don’t sign a contract with the first appraiser you meet. Instead, compare estimates from a variety of sources, look at their qualifications, and evaluate what your situation requires. Projects that will receive a high level of scrutiny from auditors, the IRS, opposing council or judges will require significant documentation. However, if you’re a small business looking for an oral appraisal, fees should be lower as very little documentation (i.e. report writing) is required.This article originally appeared in Valuation Viewpoint, October 2014.
What to Consider During A Business Appraisal
What to Consider During A Business Appraisal
Many situations warrant an business appraisal / valuation. Some of the most common occurrences in which a business will need to conduct a valuation include litigation matters, preparation for the sale of a business, tax purposes, buyouts of financial stakeholders, financial reporting of acquired businesses and the issuance of a business-related insurance policy.Furthermore, conducting a business valuation takes energy and time, and should be conducted by an independent valuation specialist. Selecting a valuation specialist / business appraiser can be complex, which we discussed in a another article, "How to Choose the Best Business Appraiser."When beginning the process of a business valuation, a clear understanding of the owner’s bundle of rights is critical before any investigative and analytical procedures are started. After a clear scope is outlined, the analysis is ready to commence. We conceptualize the value principles of most operating businesses into three components: (1) Risk, (2) Growth and (3) Earnings. We believe these are key components of value in a business. Using these as a guide, we seek to understand the nature, history and operations of a business through the perspective and intimacy of the team operating the assets every day, management. To do so, we find it helpful to discuss the operations in the same way as management thinks about its business. We strive to understand the risks that management wants to minimize the growth opportunities that management wants to obtain and the earnings that provide the scorecard for historical operations. The following details the factors which impact these three key components of value in a business.RiskRisk is the measurable possibility of something happening or not happening.1 For businesses, risk can be measured in numerous ways including benchmarking against similar businesses (“guideline”) or using a more theoretical approach such as a buildup method from market observation. None of this can be done, reasonably and supportably, without understanding the key economic drivers of the business. This prerequisite entails understanding the historical and current operations, the industry and competitive environment, operating assets, liabilities (booked and/or contingent), stakeholders, growth factors and the earnings profile of the business going forward. After understanding the drivers of risk for the subject business, the same drivers may be ascertained for the guideline businesses so that a supportable comparison can be made, ideally. However, lack of publicly available information does not make this comparison simple, and professional judgment is involved. Rarely is an exact "replica" of a business found in a guideline sample. With an appropriate understanding of the risk factors, and its comparison to similar businesses, the resulting value of a business begins to form. All other factors equal, low risk translates to higher valuation and vice versa.GrowthBusiness growth is primarily discussed in the context of revenues, profits, cash flows and assets. For some companies it also can include number of locations, products, contracts, square feet, customers and employees. In addition, growth on a larger, macro scale must also be considered as it applies to economies, industries, markets and populations. These areas are an example of the growth factors which can significantly impact a valuation and careful attention must be made to fully understand these factors in context. When we investigate the nature and history of the business, we find a relative context for future growth. Many times management and business owners make decisions to enhance shareholder value, which may include attaining the highest valuation possible. These decisions are most transparent in forecasts and projections. Risk is inter-related to future growth expectations. In short, considering growth in the context of risk is critical during a business appraisal. All other factors being equal, high growth translates into higher valuations and vice versa.EarningsEarnings are naturally a key component to analyze and arguably the most important of the three. Earnings, in this context, is a broad term to discuss operating performance of a business and is inclusive of such terms as EBITDA, net income, dividends, distributions and cash flow, to name a few. Earnings are the primary financial benefit of owning a business and are indications of performance. Careful consideration of these metrics, including industry specific earnings metrics, is very important. Changes in theses metrics over time can provide clarity on operational problems and successes. In addition, appraisers may also consider the earnings of other guideline businesses in the industry. Benchmarking may provide conclusive support regarding industry specific issues in the business but also macro issues across the economy. Earnings have significant impact on businesses strategy, future investment and capital decisions. Without investigating the earnings of a business, an appraiser cannot make an informed opinion on the value of a business.SummaryAll these components can vary substantially as time passes. An appraiser cannot simply assume that growth and earnings will continue uninterrupted into perpetuity. A marketplace is organic and can change quickly. When this occurs, growth over the long term can be difficult to achieve, and people may underestimate the risk associated with high long term growth projections. Careful analysis is necessary when estimating terminal values at the end of a long term growth forecast. When it comes down to valuing a business, understanding risk, growth and earnings are paramount.This article was originally published in Valuation Viewpoint, November 2014.Footnote1 Barron’s Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms
8 Tips To Creating An Effective Business Plan
8 Tips To Creating An Effective Business Plan
You’ve been a business executive for more than 10 years. During the last few years, you have essentially run a business as the manager of a division of a company. You have earned millions of dollars for your employer, while earning a modest salary for yourself."What if I started my own business?" you keep thinking to yourself. "Could I as a business owner become so successful that I can keep millions of dollars in profits for myself?"The answer "yes" might seem obvious, but it’s not. In fact, running a division of a company and running your own company are two completely different skill sets even if both enterprises have the same number of employees.If you want to run your own company, you are the individual who needs to raise the capital from investors to start, maintain and grow the business. That means you need an effective business plan. Here are eight tips that will help you create such a plan.1. Conduct a Market SurveyWhat is the market for the product and/or service you want to manufacture and/or sell? You might think that there is one because the division you are currently running is flourishing, but the market could be worse in the future. Facts from a market survey that shows your idea will succeed should be inserted into your business plan. A more pessimistic survey could convince you to work on a different product and/or service that will be marketable.2. Recruit Managers with ExpertiseAnd experience. You need to know when to create a business plan and when to present it to investors. Writing a business plan when you’re a lone wolf will not be effective. You need to find a few people whom you trust to work for you. Listing their skills and accomplishments in your business plan will make it more effective. Investors are more apt to be interested in a new business with five accomplished people than one.3. Be Specific and ModestA business plan that, for example, claims your company will be the Facebook of businesses sounds egomaniacal. Investors might think, “If the owners of this new business are that good, what do they need me for?” They also might think you’re immature and not especially professional. The business plan should be as specific as possible about the product and/or service and why it will flourish in the marketplace.4. Be Reader-FriendlyMost investors are in a hurry. They might seem more inclined to spend a considerable amount of time reading every word of your report because of the potential financial stakes, but they’re also human beings. Generally, investors want to read a well-written report with colorful (and informative) graphs and charts. That might mean you should hire a writer, editor, and graphics designer to help devise your business plan.5. Be Honest about the NumbersInvestors know a new business will take a while before it generates profits and revenues. An effective business plan will show investors that you expect losses at first. The plan should detail the extensive financial commitment you plan to make as the company is launched and realistically project when that investment will pay off. The figures are best presented in charts and graphs. “Graphs, charts, and images can help bring your concept to life,” reports “5 Tips for a Great Business Plan,” a Forbes magazine article. “Plus, it breaks up the text and helps a plan flow better.”6. Explain Why Investing Is CrucialThe business plan should detail how much money you and your partners are investing in the business and should detail how much more money you need from investors. It should also detail what the investors’ money will be spent on. Will it be on managerial salaries? Salaries for future employees? Product development? Product distribution? Investors are more apt to be willing to invest money if they know what it’s being spent on — and they might be more confident in your venture if they see that you’re willing to take financial risks.7. Summarize Your PlanYour business plan should include an extensive and detailed narrative, but it must also include a one- or two-page summary of the plan before the narrative. Prospective investors must be able to explain the plan to other prospective investors in one minute. An effective executive summary will help them do this, “Because bankers and professional investors receive so many business plans, they sometimes go right to the executive summary for an overall view of what your plan is all about,” reports Entrepreneur magazine in “How to Create a Business Plan Investors Will Love.”8. Make Sure an Attorney Reviews PlanYour attorney should help you decide the structure of your business. Should it be a corporation? A solo proprietorship? A general partnership? A limited liability company? A limited liability partnership? The attorney should help you present the advantages of the business structure you choose to the prospective investors in the business plan. And he or she should give you advice on whether any information presented in the business plan could pose a legal problem.These eight tips are just a start. You should also consult experts such as the U.S. Small Business Administration for more advice. Good luck.This article was originally published in Valuation Viewpoint, December 2014.
Why You Should Create an Employee Stock Ownership Plan
Why You Should Create an Employee Stock Ownership Plan
When facing a business transition, owners have two basic options. Sell the company to outside parties or to inside parties (other owners and employees). While there are numerous variations of the two, basically the owner can sell to an outside group, which may be a strategic buyer (someone in the industry already), or a financial buyer, which may be a private equity firm or other investor that wants to own the company. An internal buyer is either a sale to some or all of the employees directly, or through the use of an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP). ESOPs are usually very cost competitive and many times may pay the highest price. Sale to the employees individually is with “after tax” dollars and can be very tax inefficient.Until 1974, Employee Stock Ownership Programs were almost unheard of. However since then, they have increased in popularity. In fact in 2014, there were 13.5 million workers in the United States who were covered under ESOPs.There are many reasons as to why employers offer these types of programs. While some people think ESOPs are used to save companies that are about to go bankrupt, this usually isn’t the case. It’s a great way to transfer ownership from one generation to the next without needing a financing plan.As an added benefit, these programs tend to be offered as a way to motivate and reward employees. Of course, there are the numerous tax advantages to be gained too. For the most part, market shares are given to workers and they don’t have to purchase them.How Does an ESOP Work?When a company chooses to create an ESOP, funds are set aside in a trust fund. The monies are used to buy new shares of stock. Additional funds are contributed to buy new shares as well as to pay back any funds that are borrowed from the ESOP to buy additional market shares. It does not matter how the company pays for the shares, the contributions are tax-deductible as long as certain requirements are met.Within the trust there are individual employee accounts. The company, of course, decides who has the right to take part in the ESOP. For the most part, however, all employees who work full-time and are at least 21-years-old have the right. An employer decides how the market shares are distributed to each employee’s individual account, with many companies operating on a vested basis, meaning workers with more seniority are given more market shares than those who have less seniority.Employees receive the cash value of their stocks when they leave the company (most companies mandate that the employees work for them for at least five years), or when they retire. The amount of money that they receive for the stocks is based on their fair market value at the time.Employer Benefits of Executing an ESOPFor business owners without an established plan to transfer direct ownership to either children or trusted personnel, ESOPs are a strategic way to increase direct ownership to the following generation without having to purchase it outright.With the establishment of an ESOP, there are significant tax savings to be gained. In 1974 ERISA, or the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, created the modern ESOP as well as a whole host of other retirement vehicles that incentivize companies and employees directly through tax incentives to save money for retirement. Since the government sees a positive social purpose for ESOPs, it provides extraordinary tax incentives for an owner and a company to use an ESOP as a business succession and liquidity tool. Some of these tax advantages include: 1The seller of the stock may meet the requirements to defer and then avoid paying state and federal Capital Gains tax on the sale of their stock regardless of basis (i.e. IRC § 1042 exchange). It allows the seller to exchange the proceeds from the sale of stock to purchase stocks, bonds, notes or U.S. Domestic Securities (this includes, stocks, bonds or notes) that meet certain qualifications. Once the exchange is established and the owner maintains the exchange, upon death the seller receives a “stepped up basis” and the capital gains tax evaporates.The company receives a dollar for dollar annual deduction for every dollar’s worth of stock that is sold by the sellers. If the company buys $500,000 of stock, the company can realize a $500,000 tax deduction. This is realized on the tax return of the company as they pay for the stock, and is subject to certain limitations.The company can either be a “C” or an “S” Corporation to install an ESOP. There are some advantages and disadvantages to both structures, but ultimately, if the company is or becomes a “S” Corporation, and is 100% owned by the ESOP, the annual K-1 would then go to the ESOP, which is a State and Federal tax exempt trust, similar to a 401(k) and as such is no longer subject to State and Federal income tax. This makes the company “tax free” and can more than double cash flow, and places the company in an optimal operating platform. As they compete with other market players that are paying tax, they have a distinct financial advantage which they can leverage into getting jobs at lower prices and still maintain margins.Another advantage of an ESOP is that the sellers can maintain control of the company even after the sale, as the ESOP has a Trustee that can be “directed”. This directed Trustee is directed either directly by the Board, or by the ESOP Administrative Committee, which is a Board committee. Effectively, the day-to-day control of the business doesn’t change and control can be left with the selling owners until they receive all their money or control can be placed with whomever they direct, such as senior management, etc.Rewarding Employees with Market SharesIn addition to the above tax benefits, offering employees company ownership helps establishes professionalism and lines up owner goals with that of the employees. First-rate job candidates are attracted to companies that they know appreciate and reward their workers. Also, when a company shows it is interested in helping its workers succeed, it’s much more likely to retain its key employees. More so is the fact that the employees will strive to make the company succeed because they will want their market shares to be worth more money.It’s also with an ESOP that an employer can reward its workers without draining its cash flow. Instead of giving cash bonuses, market shares are issued. Furthermore, an ESOP comes with the benefit of the employer being able to strictly decide who gets the market shares and how much. With fringe benefits, specific selection is mostly prohibited.Next StepsAlthough an ESOP has significant tax advantages and provides a mechanism for current owners to exit the business at fair market value, the process requires the work of an experienced team in the creation and execution of an ESOP. Because of this, you should work with a group of advisors experienced in implementing an ESOP.This article was originally published in Valuation Viewpoint, February 2015.Footnote1 Business Transition Advisors
Hidden Tax Traps Commonly Unearthed During Business Due Diligence
Hidden Tax Traps Commonly Unearthed During Business Due Diligence
There are number of aspects that always get immediate attention when a business is analyzed for an acquisition. These are standard elements that are practically on a default checklist of any decent due diligence team.A number of tax traps become apparent during the process for those professionals who knows how to look for these issues. This article seeks to identify a few that commonly show up during the due diligence process of acquiring the equity of a company.The Missing WithholdingAny business that has employees has a payroll has a tax withholding liability, and many business farm this accounting work out to third parties. It’s mundane work that has little to do with core functions of most businesses, so third party accounting firms and offices get a lot of the workload. Unfortunately, they also get lump sums of money to pay for the withholding requirements as well on a monthly basis. And those pots of cash can often be very attractive to a character who wants to shave off a few percentages of the total or “lose” a monthly payment altogether. Because the IRS and tax agencies get so much withholding on a regular basis, a shorted payment or a missing amount can be overlooked for a while. However, eventually the IRS and tax agencies reconcile amounts owed and eventually target a business for an audit. Should a business be acquired before that audit happens, the review can be a painful hit of withholding due, compounded tax interest, and tax penalties.Business Deductions Not Matching ExpensesSmall businesses are notorious for having very inflated tax-deductible expenses that tend to disappear when the real accounting books are reviewed. No surprise, the IRS often casts a very pessimistic eye on small businesses as a result. If a company has a history of inflated tax returns it’s not going to become apparent unless so those same returns are examined in direct comparison to the real accounting records. Any appraiser who is aware of this relationship knows to ask for both and looks to tie out specific expense numbers accordingly. A failure to look for this kind of baggage means the new owner could be stuck with tax penalties or worse, a tax investigation for tax evasion.Inflated Depreciation LandminesBusinesses are allowed to depreciate large equipment and asset purchases, but they need to be depreciated over time. Incorrect calculations on tax filings can trigger audits and corrections. However, like other tax issues, the tax agency correction can be years after the fact. These landmines often get missed unless someone actually looks at the depreciation figures filed and checks on their validity.In SummaryTax traps don’t have to be discovered the hard way. A targeted due diligence assignment will catch these issues, specifically looking for tax problems when examining liabilities. Don’t consider an acquisition of the equity of a business without knowing the tax records have been specifically reviewed.This article was originally published in Valuation Viewpoint, April 2015.
A Watched Pot Never Boils: Still Waiting on Margin Relief
A Watched Pot Never Boils: Still Waiting on Margin Relief
As expected after lackluster job gains in May, the Federal Open Market Committee declined to raise the Fed Funds target at the latest policy meeting on June 15th. While the majority of policymakers still expect the Fed to boost rates twice before the end of this year, the number of officials who forecast just one rate hike increased from one to six from the previous forecasting round in March. In addition, Fed officials lowered their expectations for future years, now expecting the fed funds rate to rise to 1.6% by year-end 2017, down from the 1.9% estimate in March, and 2.4% in 2018, down from the previous estimate of 3.0%. During a press briefing on June 3rd, members of the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association said they still expect the Fed to boost rates twice before the end of this year, but after years of speculation regarding timing of rate increases, when that will happen remains anyone’s best guess. The bond market never believed the forecasts.Rate increases are long awaited by community bankers as banks are facing profitability challenges. Net interest margins continue to compress and loan growth remains stymied by intense competition for high quality loans. Margin relief remains out of the grasp of most community banks, absent further rate hikes beyond the December 2015 hike. After rebounding modestly in the third and fourth quarter of 2015, the median net interest margin of community banks (defined as those with assets between $100 million and $5 billion), ticked down modestly in the first quarter of 2016 as intense competition for quality loans drove down loan yields and the decline in long-term rates put downward pressure on securities’ yields (Charts 1 and 2). Overall, median net interest income continued to increase as growth in loans offset margin compression, but intense competition raises concerns over how much credit standards have been relaxed to drive loan growth. Although the majority of banks’ balance sheets are poised to take advantage of rising rates, the lift to net interest margins is dependent on asset yields rising faster than the cost of funds (Chart 3). While deposits costs essentially reached a floor several quarters ago, data suggests the threat of rising deposit rates may limit margin expansion in a rising rate environment. As shown in Chart 4, the percentage of banks reporting quarter-over-quarter increases in the cost of interest bearing deposits has been trending upward over the last eight quarters. In a higher rate environment, customers are more likely to shop around for higher rates. The increase observed in interest bearing accounts could reflect the fact that higher loan growth has compelled some banks to raise rates or perhaps an effort to build goodwill with customers in anticipation of rising rates and increased rate sensitivity. For banks with asset sensitive balance sheets, the benefit of rising interest rates will be greater the stickier low cost deposits are. While net interest margin is a key metric for banks, focusing on other drivers of profitability is one way to combat margin compression in the face of further delays in interest rate hikes or upward pressure on deposit costs. Consider the following: Look for opportunities to grow non-interest income. One strategic option may be to expand bank offerings into non-traditional bank business lines that are less capital intensive and offer prospects for non-interest income growth such as acquisitions or partnerships with insurance, wealth management, specialty finance, and/or financial technology companies. FinTech’s consumer-focused technology and ability to quickly adapt can pair well with community banks who can provide an established customer base and knowledge of the regulatory process and environment. For more information, we recently wrote an article on why current market conditions may be ripe for FinTech partnerships.Leverage technology to curb efficiency ratios. Compliance and regulatory costs continue to rise and represent a bigger burden to community banks who lack the scale to accommodate these expenses in comparison to their larger peers. A recent article from American Banker included data presented by Chris Nichols, chief strategy officer of CenterState Banks, at a recent fintech conference in Atlanta that shows why engaging customers digitally is more efficient. Furthermore, a recent article published on SNL highlights how, in some regards, community banks can be quicker to adopt new technology than larger peers. While size may limit what projects are feasible for community banks, agility has its benefits.Increase scale. Create economies of scale and improve profitability organically or by merging with a larger company. Organic loan growth is an obvious cure to the margin blues, but must be achieved while maintaining credit quality and holding adequate capital. M&A remains a classic solution to revenue headwinds in a mature industry, and bank acquirers can potentially have savings beyond expense synergies with some NIM relief resulting from potential accretion income on the acquired assets, which are marked to fair value at acquisition. Mercer Capital has a long history of working with banks and helping to solve complex problems ranging from valuation issues to considering different strategic options. If you would like to discuss your bank’s unique situation in confidence, feel free to contact us.
10 Ideas for Experts When Preparing for Depositions
10 Ideas for Experts When Preparing for Depositions
An expert deposition is a formal proceeding. I can only speak from my own experience in having my deposition taken and in attending a number of depositions of other experts or parties to various matters. There is one thing that is true in the majority of expert depositions I have seen. The opposing attorney prepares for the deposition. In one deposition, the opposing counsel had his outline of questions to ask me contained in a three-ring notebook. I couldn’t be sure, but it appeared to have more than 50 pages of typewritten questions.If opposing counsel is going to prepare for your deposition as an expert witness, it is equally critical that you prepare as well. Preparation for an expert deposition entails a number of activities:Do good work all the time.In some cases, experts are retained to prepare business valuation, economic damages, or financial forensic reports in the context of litigation. In those cases, it is critical to do good work, to support each opinion, to be sure that the math checks out, and to be certain that a report is internally consistent and consistent with an expert’s prior work, writings and speaking. However, your first deposition may not arise because you were retained as an expert. You may be deposed on a report that you prepared in the ordinary course of business. This could happen with a report prepared for tax purposes, for a buy-sell agreement, for an ESOP, or for some other purpose. In those cases, you don’t get a chance to “do the report over” for the litigation. You must live with the report you signed long ago. Remember to do good work all the time.Read your expert report. Experts write reports that summarize their opinions and provide the basis, support and rationale for their opinions. In business valuation and economic damages matters, expert reports can be of considerable length, perhaps 100, 200, 300 or more pages. In many cases, considerable time will have passed between the submission of an expert’s report and his or her deposition. This makes it essential to read the report carefully, and from cover to cover, including all boilerplate. An expert has to be familiar with what is in his report as well as what is not in the report.Review the entire file. An expert’s file will contain many documents, maybe hundreds or even many thousands of them. The expert must review the file to know what is there. In large litigations with literally thousands of documents, it may be necessary for another professional to review documents. If so, the expert then must review the key documents identified in that review. Not every document will have been relied upon, but you have to be familiar with the key documents supporting your opinion. When working on litigation matters, I routinely accumulate the major documents that will be referenced in a spiral-bound notebook. Depending on the circumstances, I may take my own notebook to deposition or trial because I am familiar with the book and the documents. In any event, I review those documents carefully, often multiple times.Prepare a list of key names, dates or other key information you do not want to forget. I typically prepare a list that includes the name(s) of our clients, all the attorneys we have worked with on our side, opposing counsel, opposing experts, and key dates or documents I may want for instant recall. There are no opinions on this list, just names and facts. You will only forget the name of your client one time – when the client is sitting in your deposition – before you initiate this habit.Respond fully to any subpoena for your file. Most expert depositions are noticed with subpoena duces tecum, which is a request for the expert’s presence at a deposition as well as for documentary evidence from his files. In our shop, subpoenas are provided to our in-house counsel, and she reviews the file in order to be sure that we comply. This means that experts shouldn’t put things into their files that they don’t want someone else to see. Opposing counsel will ask the expert whether he or she has complied with the subpoena.Meet with counsel to prepare for the deposition. This meeting (or meetings) provides a deadline for the expert in doing the preparations noted above. Counsel will usually have some idea of how opposing counsel will approach your deposition, and the themes he or she thinks you can expect to see. Counsel can give you information about the style of the opposing counsel who will be taking the deposition. It is a good idea to do an internet search and read biographical information about opposing counsel.Know your objective for the deposition. Some experts go into depositions loaded, as it were, for bear. They want to try to “win” the deposition by proving their opinions zealously. An attorney told me long ago to avoid the temptation of trying to “win” a deposition. Counsel observed that the rules for depositions and trials as they relate to experts were written by attorneys and conducted by attorneys. Counsel then said something I’ve not forgotten: “Chris, your objective in this deposition is not to win it. Your objective is not to lose.”Discuss your approach to comments about opposing expert reports with counsel. In some cases, counsel will want you to be prepared to comment on the report of one or more other experts. If so, outline your comments in advance so that you are organized when asked for your opinions regarding the report(s). In other cases, counsel may have retained another expert to handle rebuttal, and you would not be expected to comment, even if asked by opposing counsel. It is okay not to have opinions about other experts.Talk with counsel about local rules applicable to depositions. In some jurisdictions, experts are not allowed to talk with counsel for their side during a deposition. I recall one arbitration in which I testified where this rule was in place. As we reached the end of the day during my testimony, opposing counsel opened a report that I had issued some years before and read a portion that appeared to impeach my testimony. The problem was, I couldn’t remember the details of that earlier report on the spot. Fortunately, the day ended at that point. The arbitration resumed three weeks later, and I was unable to talk with counsel about the testimony at all during that period. However, I did pull a copy of the report that opposing counsel had read from. Counsel had clearly taken his quote out of context. I brought a copy of the report when I returned to the stand and asked for time to respond to the final question from the previous session. With permission from my earlier client, I read the portion of the report that counsel had tried to trip me with, but I read that portion in appropriate context. In that light, there was no impeachment. Indeed, the earlier report supported my testimony in the arbitration. That’s a long story, but the point is, know the rules.Get a good night’s sleep the night before your deposition. Depositions can be long and grueling. In some jurisdictions, they are limited to seven hours of deposition time. Seven hours, though, can be a long time, so it is good to be rested. For multi-day depositions, getting good rest is critical. It takes a great deal of mental focus and physical energy to give a good deposition. So, take care of yourself as a key part of preparing.Wrapping UpThe central idea behind preparing for an expert deposition is to be sure that the expert is as ready as possible. Preparation is essential for experts to give good depositions.Mercer Capital brings analytical resources and over 35 years of experience to the field of dispute analysis and litigation support. We assist our clients through the entire dispute process by providing initial consultation and analysis, as well as testimony and trial support. Please contact us to discuss your needs in confidence.
<em>Wisniewski v. Walsh</em> and the Bad Behavior (Marketability) Discount in New Jersey
Wisniewski v. Walsh and the Bad Behavior (Marketability) Discount in New Jersey
Peter Mahler reported on a recent New Jersey appellate level case focusing on the application of a 25% marketability discount in a statutory fair value determination in his New York Business Divorce blog. The New Jersey Appellate Division issued an unpublished decision in Wisniewski v. Walsh, 2015 N.J. Super. Unpub. LEXIS 3001 [App. Div. Dec. 24, 2015]. The case is interesting in that it attempts to determine a marketability discount in relationship to the “bad behavior” of a selling shareholder. The Wisniewski case has a long and tortuous history dating back to the mid-1990s. The case involves a successful family-owned trucking business founded by the father in 1952. Three siblings, Frank, Norbert, and Patricia owned the business equally following the father’s death. Frank assumed leadership of the business by 1973, and Norbert and Patricia’s husband also worked in the business. In 1992, Frank was sentenced to a prison term, leaving Norbert in charge of the business. Norbert stopped paying certain bills that had customarily been paid for Patricia and her husband, and diverted certain revenues from a business owned by Patricia to one in which she had no interest. In addition, even after Frank’s return, Norbert tried to exclude Patricia from a real estate deal that she ordinarily would have participated in. The litigation began around 1995. Interestingly, the trial court held that Norbert was an oppressing shareholder, and none of the parties contested that finding or the court’s later decision that Norbert should be bought out. Hold that thought, because it becomes a key factor in the court’s determination of statutory fair value. I can only call the concluded marketability discount in the matter a “bad behavior” discount.The ValuationsThe court’s valuation was determined through two trials in 2007 and 2008. Roger Grabowski of Duff & Phelps was retained by Frank and Patricia (the company) and Gary Trugman of Trugman Valuation Associates was retained by Norbert. I have been unable to locate the trial court’s decision in that matter, and so I can only write about the valuation from the perspective of the appellate decision.The trial court issued opinions in October 2007 and July 2008, which explained how and why the trial judge concluded that the fair market value of Norbert’s interest was about $32.2 million. We learn in the appellate decision that the trial court applied a separate 15% “key man” discount “to account for Frank’s importance.” If the conclusion was $32.2 million for Norbert’s interest, then the value before the discount was about $37.9 million ($32.2 / (1 – 15%)). No marketability discount was applied by the trial court. This would place an implied value of the trucking business at about $114 million.We do not know the conclusions of either Grabowski or Trugman that were considered by the trial court. According to the appellate decision, the trial judge found Trugman’s discounted cash flow analysis more credible than Grabowski’s market approach. However, the trial judge used assumptions suggested by Grabowski for certain normalizing adjustments to operating expenses for Trugman’s discounted cash flow method.The Initial Appeals and Application of a Marketability DiscountThere was an appeal of the trial court’s decisions in 2007 and 2008. The appellate court, in a decision issued April 2, 2013, held in part that “the trial judge erred in not applying a marketability discount” and remanded “for the fixing and application of a marketability discount to the extent not already subsumed in the judge’s findings…”The 2015 appellate decision states regarding the remand to the trial court in 2013:On remand, Judge Hector R. Velazquez briefly contemplated that the record might need to be supplemented with expert testimony pertaining to the narrow issues presented, but ultimately decided against it; none of the parties quarrel with that approach now. Left to resolve the matter on the record developed after the first remand, Judge Velazquez heard oral argument and issued an opinion on October 16, 2013, concluding that a discount for marketability was not embedded in the prior valuation and that a discount of twenty-five percent should be applied. He entered a second amended final judgment to that effect on January 7, 2014.And of course the parties appealed and cross-appealed.The Final (?) AppealThe appellate decision was issued December 24, 2015. To cut to the chase, the appellate court found “no merit” in the appeal and affirmed Judge Velazquez’ 2014 opinion. The appellate decision recounts that Norbert was found to be an oppressing shareholder. This turns out to be an important point, because in New Jersey, the marketability discount is typically reserved for “extraordinary circumstances” involving inequitable or coercive conduct on the part of the seller, who is Norbert in this case. The issue on appeal was whether the trial judge had erred in application of the 25% marketability discount because marketability may already have been considered in Trugman’s DCF analysis. The key facts relating to the marketability discount question, as best I can glean them from the 2015 appellate decision, include:Trugman’s Discount Rate Risk Factors. Trugman used a build-up method to develop his discount rate for his DCF analysis. The company-specific risk factors in the build-up included key man risk regarding Frank’s perceived management ability, customer relationships, customer concentrations, the closely-held nature of the trucking business, and undercapitalization. Trugman made two important additional points regarding the marketability of the business. He stated that the company is profitable, attractive, and marketable and that the company made substantial distributions on a regular basis that should offset any risks during a normal marketing period (of six to nine months). Trugman did not apply a marketability discount (or assumed it to be zero), noting that the discount rate was the “right place” to consider these risks. Recall also that the trial judge in the valuation trial had already applied a separate 15% key man discount after accepting Trugman’s DCF (as modified by Grabowski’s expense assumptions).Grabowski’s Marketability Factors. Grabowski had applied a marketability discount of 35% in his valuation. Judge Velaquez concluded that Grabowski and Trugman considered several of the same factors in reaching their discount rate and marketability discount, respectively. Grabowski’s marketability factors included heavy dependence on Frank as a key man, customer concentrations in the retail industry, the company’s size and closely held nature, its profitability, and the anticipated holding period. Grabowski per the court noted that his marketability discount was also “consistent with guidance from applicable [minority] studies and legal precedent.” Grabowski viewed the company as having a relative lack of marketability. The appellate court notes the trial court’s decision:Judge Velazquez concluded, based on that record, that although Trugman and Grabowski had considered several of the same factors in formulating their discount rate and marketability discount, respectively, that Trugman had made no adjustment for marketability in building up his discount rate — in short, the judge concluded that no marketability discount was embedded in his evaluation. The judge rejected both expert opinions, moreover, in selecting an appropriate discount, and fixed the rate at twenty-five percent.It gets more interesting for valuation professionals. The appellate court reasoned that a marketability discount was necessary because of Norbert’s bad behavior towards his fellow shareholders (there was never a finding that his behavior harmed the company in any way).The second trial judge rejected application of a marketability discount following our first remand. He considered Frank’s criminal conviction, a factor Grabowski suggested would reduce the company’s value, but noted that while the company endured a lull during Frank’s absence, it resumed its growth on his return with no apparent hindrance attributable of his criminal history. Neither that nor any other circumstance, the trial judge at the time reasoned, justified application of the discount. Although the reasoning was sound for the most part, we reversed because the judge at the time failed to consider that Norbert’s oppressive conduct had harmed his fellow shareholders and necessitated the forced buyout…[paraphrasing the New Jersey Supreme Court in Balsamides under similar circumstances]. …[A]bsent the application of a discount, the oppressing shareholder would receive a windfall, leaving the innocent party to shoulder the entire burden of the asset’s illiquidity in any future sale. Equity demanded application of the discount, or else the statute would create an incentive for oppressive behavior. (emphasis added)The appellate decision restated some of Judge Velazquez’ logic in making the following point:On remand, Judge Velazquez determined on the existing record that a marketability discount was not already embedded in the valuation. He recounted that the discount rate Trugman build up included a size premium and an adjustment for a series of company-specific factors including the company’s reliance on Frank, its customer concentration in the retail industry, and high debt. Although Grabowski had considered similar factors in formulating his marketability discount, the judge concluded that Trugman had certainly “utilized them in a different way” than to adjust for any lack of illiquidity. (emphasis added)As a business appraiser examining this case from business and valuation perspectives, the economic logic for applying a 25% marketability discount by the court is considerably strained. If a group of risk factors are considered in the DCF method that lower value in the context of that method, it is difficult to see how their further consideration for the application of an additional marketability discount is not double-counting. However, the appellate court addressed this issue as follows:Grabowski analyzed a handful of the same factors, among many others, in formulating his marketability discount, but, in contrast, focused on the inherent liquidity of closely-held companies and the anticipated holding period for a rational investor in this company. There was no clear indication in the record, then, that Trugman and Grabowski had accounted for the same risks relative to marketability, such that application of a separate marketability discount would cause double counting. (emphasis added)In the light of day, it would seem that there is double-counting to the extent that both appraisers considered the same factors that would reduce each of their values, even if they used those factors in different ways. And note that the original trial judge had already allowed for a key man discount of 15%, which occurred, obviously, after the experts had testified and provided their evidence. This discount, which certainly pertains to the “marketability” of a business, is substantial discount that had already been considered in the trial court’s conclusion. It just wasn’t labeled as a marketability discount.The Marketability (Bad Behavior) DiscountWhat it seems that we have in Wisniewski v. Walsh is a situation that is a business appraiser’s nightmare. At the original valuation trial, the court held that there should be no marketability discount. That was appealed. The appellate court then remanded back to the trial court for the application of a marketability discount to the extent that one was not already embedded in Trugman’s DCF analysis. The trial judge then, based on logic outlined above, concluded that no marketability discount was embedded in the DCF analysis and that the appropriate punitive marketability discount was 25%. This was appealed, and in this current appellate decision, the trial court’s marketability discount is affirmed.I have no problem if a court of equity wants to penalize a party for oppressive behavior to other shareholders. That is certainly one of the jobs that courts of equity are called upon to do in appropriate circumstances. And that discount can be zero, 10%, 20%, 25% or anything the court determines is appropriate in a specific case.I do have a problem with a court making an “equitable” decision and then trying to justify that decision based on parsing of valuation evidence.Assume an appraiser provided a valuation in another New Jersey statutory fair value matter involving the oppressive behavior of a selling shareholder named John. Let’s say that the value conclusion for the interest before the application of a “bad behavior discount” was $100 per share. The appraiser then concludes as follows:Based on my analysis of John’s bad behavior, I believe that a marketability (bad behavior) discount of 20% is appropriate.The appraiser might be thrown out of court. His opinion would certainly be given no weight. How then, is an appraiser to respond when the ultimate marketability, or bad behavior, discount will be determined by a judge who is responding to the equities of a matter? After all, valuation evidence pertaining to the marketability of a company or of an interest in a company has absolutely nothing to do with the behavior of any shareholder.Let’s look further at the appellate decision and we will see that the trial court’s conclusion has nothing to do with the economics of the trucking business in Wisniewski.The Court noted in Balsamides, supra, 160 N.J. at 377, 379, that marketability discounts for closely-held companies frequently ranged from thirty to forty percent, though the Court explained that selection of an appropriate rate, and the applicability of a rate in the first place, must always be responsive to the equities of a given matter. Judge Velazquez properly rejected from the outset Norbert’s suggestion that the marketability discount be set at zero percent. Indeed, we had already decided that a marketability discount was required and Judge Velazquez was bound by our mandate. After carefully canvassing the record, Judge Velazquez came to the conclusion that selecting a thirty to forty percent rate as described in Balsamides would excessively punish Norbert, the oppressing shareholder, beyond what the equities of this case required and, in light of the company’s past financial success and anticipated continued future growth, stood to “give the remaining shareholders a significant windfall.” In choosing an appropriate marketability discount after rejecting portions of both expert opinions on the issue, Judge Velazquez acknowledged our Supreme Court’s advice in Balsamides that such discounts frequently ranged from thirty to forty percent, but noted that other studies supported a broader range, reaching as low as twenty percent. He alluded to authorities from other jurisdictions approving the application of a wide range of discounts, sensitive to the equities of each individual case, and to our decision in Cap City Products Co. v. Louriero, 332 N.J. Super. 499, 501, 505-07 (App. Div. 2000), allowing application of a twenty-five percent discount. (emphasis added)If trial courts determine marketability discounts as bad behavior discounts, there really is no way that business appraisers can provide meaningful information to a court. If the court’s concern is one of “the equities” in a matter rather than in determining the fair value or the fair market value of a business or interest in a business, then there is little that appraisers can do to help. In Wisniewski, the application of a marketability discount flowed, not from the lack of marketability of the trucking business, but from the bad behavior of Norbert. Neither Trugman nor Grabowski had a chance in that determination. All we can say is that the court’s ultimate conclusion for the bad behavior (marketability) discount fell within the range suggested by Trugman (0%) and Grabowski (35%) and had nothing to do with the relative marketability of the business at hand.Peter Mahler’s ConclusionMahler concluded similarly in his blog post:If you ask accredited business appraisers whether the determination of a marketability discount rate for the shares of a particular closely-held company should be based on case precedent involving other companies, I think the vast majority will answer “no.” I wrote a piece on that very subject last year, quoting from the IRS’s DLOM Job Aid and experts in the field. Yet cases such as Wisniewski point the other way, effectively encouraging advocates and judges to select a rate within a self-perpetuating, “established” range of case precedent based as much if not more on the “equities” of the case than the financial performance, prospects, and liquidity risks of the company being valued. It’s not for me to say whether appellate courts and legislatures should decide as a matter of policy to incorporate into fair value determinations equitable considerations based on the good or bad conduct and motives of the litigants toward one another. But I am saying that if that’s the way it’s going to be, there’s an associated cost in the form of greater indeterminacy in fair value adjudications which makes it harder for lawyers and valuation professionals to advise their clients and to reach buyout agreements before they ripen into litigation.Readers can see the bad news in this appellate decision in Wisniewski. The good news, I guess, it that most statutory fair value cases do not involve bad behavior on the part of a selling shareholder.
Are Market Conditions Driving More  FinTech Partnerships and M&A?
Are Market Conditions Driving More FinTech Partnerships and M&A?
It has been an interesting few weeks for FinTech.Coming off recent years where both public and private FinTech markets were trending positively, the tail end of 2015 and the start to 2016 have been unique as performance has started to diverge.The performance of public FinTech companies has been relatively flat through the first quarter of 2016 (see Public Market Indicators on page 3 of the First Quarter 2016 FinTech newsletter), and signs of weakness have been observed in alternative/marketplace lending, as well as some of the more high profile FinTech companies that have gone public recently.The median return of the FinTech companies that IPO’d in 2015 was a decline of 16% since IPO (through 3/31/16). For perspective, Square, OnDeck, and Lending Club are each down significantly in 2016 (down 28%, 53%, and 64%, respectively from 1/1/2016 to 5/18/2016).Also, the broader technology IPO slowdown in late 2015 has continued into 2016 and no FinTech IPOs have occurred thus far in 2016.However, optimism for FinTech still abounds, and the private markets continue to reflect that with robust investor interest and funding levels.In 2016, 334 FinTech companies raised a total of $6.7 billion in funding in the first quarter (compared to 171 companies raising $3.2 billion in the first quarter of 2015), and Ant Financial (Alibaba’s finance affiliate) completed an eye-popping $4.5 billion capital raise in April.While the factors driving this divergence in performance between public and private markets are debatable, the divergence is unlikely to continue indefinitely.A less favorable public market and less attractive IPO market creates a more challenging exit environment for those “unicorns” and other private companies.Headwinds for the private markets could develop from more technology companies seeking IPOs and less cash flow from successful exits to fund the next round of private companies.Consequently, other strategic and exit options beyond an IPO should be considered such as partnering with, acquiring, or selling to traditional incumbents (banks, insurers, and money managers).The potential for M&A and partnerships is even more likely in FinTech, particularly here in the US, due to the unique dynamics of the financial services industry including the resiliency of traditional incumbents and the regulatory landscape.For example, consider a few of the inherent advantages that traditional banks have over non-bank FinTech lenders:Better Access to Funding. Prior to 2016, the interest rate/funding environment was very favorable and limited the funding advantage that financial institutions have historicallyhad relative to less regulated non-financial companies.However, the winds appear to be shifting somewhat as rates rose in late 2015, and funding availability for certain FinTech companies has tightened. For example, alternative lenders are dependent, to some extent, on institutional investors to provide funding and/or purchase loans generated on their platform, and a number have cited some decline in institutional investor interest.Banks Still Have Strong Customer Relationships. While certain niches of FinTech are enhanced by demand from consumers and businesses for new and innovative products and technology, presently, the traditional institutions still maintain the majority of customer relationships.As an example, the 2015 Small Business Credit Survey from the Federal Reserve noted that traditional banks are still the primary source for small business loans with only 20% of employer firms applying at an online lender.The satisfaction rate for online lenders was low (15% compared to 75% for small banks and 51% for large banks).The main reasons reported for dissatisfaction with online lenders was high interest rates and unfavorable repayment terms.Regulatory Scrutiny and Uncertainty related to FinTech.Both the Federal Reserve and the OCC have made recent announcements and comments about ways to regulate financial technology.In the online lending area specifically, regulatory scrutiny appears to be on the rise with the Treasury releasing a white paperdiscussing the potential oversight of marketplace lending and the CFPB signaling the potential to increase scrutiny in the area.The lack of a banking charter has also been cited as a potential weakness and has exposed certain alternative lenders to lawsuits in different states.At the same time that FinTech companies are increasingly considering, or being forced to consider, strategic options beyond an IPO, traditional incumbents are starting to realize that they must develop a strategic plan that considers how to evolve, survive, and thrive as technology and financial services increasingly intersect.For example, a number of banks are looking to engage in discussions with FinTech companies.A recent survey from BankDirector noted that boards are focusing more on technology with 75% of respondents wanting to understand how technology can make the bank more efficient and 72% wanting to know how technology can improve the customer experience.FinTech presents traditional financial institutions with a number of strategic options, but the most notable options include focusing on one or some combination of the following: building their own technology solutions, acquiring a FinTech company, or partnering with a FinTech company.One area where we have started to see more FinTech partnerships and M&A already start to play out is wealth management and the industry’s response to robo-advisory.Robo-advisers were noted by the CFA Institute as the FinTech innovation most likely to have the greatest impact on the financial services industry in the short-term (one year) and medium-term (five years).Consider the following announcements in this area over the last few years; on the acquisition front, BlackRock’s acquisition of FutureAdvisor in August 2015, Invesco’s acquisition of Jemstep, and Ally Financial’s acquisition of TradeKing in April 2016.On the partnering front, Motif and J.P. Morgan announced a partnership in October 2015, UBS announced a major partnership with SigFig in May 2016, and Betterment and Fidelity announced a partnership in October 2014. Community banks will also have an opportunity to enter the robo-advisory fray as Personal Capital announced a partnership with Alliance Partners that will allow over 200 community banks offer digital wealth advisory tools.While we do not yet know which strategy will be most successful, discussions of whether to build, partner, or buy will increasingly be on the agenda of boards and executives of both financial institutions and FinTech companies for the next few years.The right combination of technology and financial services through either partnerships or M&A has significant potential to create value for both FinTech companies and traditional financial institutions.Any partnership or merger should be examined thoroughly to ensure that the right metrics are utilized to examine value creation and returns on investment.Transactions and significant partnerships also have significant risks and potential issues will need to be discussed.For example, significant issues with M&A and potential partnerships can include: execution and cultural issues, shareholder dilution, whether the partnership is significant enough to create shareholder value and provide a return on investment, contingent liabilities, and regulatory pressures/issues.These issues must be balanced with the potential rewards, such as customer satisfaction/retention, shareholder value creation, and return on investment.If you are interested in considering strategic options and potential partnerships for your financial institution or FinTech company, contact Mercer Capital. Financial institutions represent our largest industry focus for over thirty years. We have a deep bench with experience with both FinTech companies and traditional financial institutions (banks, asset managers, and insurance companies).This uniquely suits us to assist both as they explore partnerships and potential transactions.
Valuation Expertise: Necessary Chapter 11 Process Navigation
Valuation Expertise: Necessary Chapter 11 Process Navigation
This article was originally published in the October 2014 issue of ABJ Journal. Chapter 11 reorganization affords a financially distressed or insolvent company an opportunity to restructure its liabilities and emerge as a sustainable going concern. Once a petition for Chapter 11 is filed with the bankruptcy court, the company usually undertakes a strategic review of its operations, including opportunities to shed assets or even lines of businesses. During the reorganization proceeding, stakeholders, including creditors and equity holders, negotiate and litigate to establish economic interests in the emerging entity. The Chapter 11 reorganization process concludes when the bankruptcy court confirms a reorganization plan which specifies a reorganization value and which reflects the agreed upon strategic direction and capital structure of the emerging entity. In addition to fulfilling technical requirements of the bankruptcy code and providing adequate disclosure, two characteristics of a reorganization plan are germane from a valuation perspective:1The plan should demonstrate that the economic outcomes for the consenting stakeholders are superior under the Chapter 11 proceeding compared to a Chapter 7 proceeding, which provides for a liquidation of the business.Upon confirmation by the bankruptcy court, the plan will not likely result in liquidation or further reorganization. Within this context, valuation specialists can provide useful financial advice in order to:Establish the value of the business under a Chapter 7 liquidation premise.Measure the reorganization value of a business, which oulines both the haircuts required of pre-bankruptcy stakeholders and the capital structure of the emerging entity. A reorganization plan confirmed by a bankruptcy court establishes a reorganization value that exceeds the value of the company under a liquidation premise.Demonstrate the viability of the emerging entity’s proposed capital structure, including debt amounts and terms given the stream of cash-flows that can be reasonably expected from the business.Liquidation ValueThe value of a business under the liquidation premise contemplates a sale of the company’s assets within a short period. Inadequate time to place the assets in the open market means that the price obtained is usually lower than the fair market value.In general, the discount from fair market value implied by the price obtainable under a liquidation premise is directly related to the liquidity of an asset. Accordingly, valuation analysts often segregate the assets of the petitioner company into several categories based upon the ease of disposal. Liquidation value is estimated for each category by referencing available discount benchmarks. For example, no haircut would apply to cash and equivalents while real estate holdings would likely incur potentially significant discounts, which could be estimated by analyzing the prices commanded by comparable properties under a similarly distressed sale scenario.Reorganization ValueASC 852 defines reorganization value as:2“The value attributable to the reconstituted entity, as well as the expected net realizable value of those assets that will be disposed of before reconstitution occurs. This value is viewed as the value of the entity before considering liabilities and approximates the amount a willing buyer would pay for the assets of the entity immediately after restructuring.”Reorganization value is generally understood to be the value of the entity that emerges from the bankruptcy proceeding under a going concern premise of value. Typically, the largest element of the reorganization value is the business enterprise value of the emerging entity. Reorganization plans primarily make use of the discounted cash-flow (DCF) method under the income approach to measure the business enterprise value of the emerging entity. The DCF method estimates the net present value of future cash-flows that the emerging entity is expected to generate. Implementing the discounted cash-flow methodology requires three basic elements:Forecast of Expected Future Cash-flows. Guidance from management can be critical in developing a supportable cash-flow forecast. Generally, valuation specialists develop cash-flow forecasts for discrete periods that may range from three to ten years. Conceptually, one would forecast discrete cash-flows for as many periods as necessary until a stabilized cash-flow stream can be anticipated. Due to the opportunity to make broad strategic changes as part of the reorganization process, cash-flows from the emerging entity must be projected for the period when the company expects to execute its restructuring and transition plans. Major drivers of the cash-flow forecast include projected revenue, gross margins, operating costs and capital expenditure requirements. Historical experience of the petitioner company, as well as information from publicly traded companies operating in similar lines of business can provide reference points to evaluate each element of the cash-flow forecast.Terminal Value. The terminal value captures the value of all cash-flows beyond the discrete forecast period. Terminal value is typically determined by capitalizing cash-flow at the end of the forecast period, based on assumptions about long-term cash-flow growth rate and the discount rate. In some cases, the terminal value may be estimated through the application of curr ent or projected market multiples.Discount Rate. The discount rate is used to estimate the present value of the forecasted cash-flows. Valuation analysts develop a suitable discount rate using assumptions about the costs of equity and debt capital, and the capital structure of the emerging entity. Costs of equity capital are usually estimated by utilizing a build-up method that uses the long-term risk-free rate, equity premia, and other industry or company-specific factors as inputs. The cost of debt capital and the likely capital structure may be based on benchmark rates on similar issues and the structures of comparable companies. Overall, the discount rate should reasonably reflect the business and financial risks associated with the expected cash-flows of the emerging entity. The sum of the present values of all the forecasted cash-flows, including discrete period cash-flows and the terminal value, provides an indication of the business enterprise value of the emerging entity for a specific set of forecast assumptions. The reorganization value is the sum of the expected business enterprise value of the emerging entity, plus proceeds from the sale or other disposal of assets during the reorganization, if any. During the reorganization proceeding, different stakeholders may independently develop distinct estimates of the reorganization value to facilitate negotiations or litigations. The confirmed reorganization plan, however, reflects the terms agreed upon by the consenting stakeholders and specifies either a single range of reorganization values or a single point estimate. Bankruptcy courts may permit certain post petition liabilities to facilitate the operation of the petitioning business during the reorganization process. In conjunction with the reorganization plan, the courts also approve the amounts of allowed claims or interests for the stakeholders (creditors or equity holders) in the restructuring entity. The reorganization value is the value of the total assets of the emerging entity and represents all of the resources available to meet the post petition liabilities, and allowed claims and interests called for in the confirmed reorganization plan.Cash-Flow TestIn principle, a confirmed reorganization plan should not lead to a liquidation or further restructuring in the foreseeable future. A cash-flow test evaluates the viability of a reorganization plan following the conclusion of the restructuring under Chapter 11 protection.The first step in conducting the cash-flow test is to identify the cash-flows that underpin the reorganization plan. Conceptually, these cash-flows are available to service all the obligations of the emerging entity. As a matter of practice, since the reorganization value is usually developed using the DCF method, establishing the appropriate stream of cash-flows is often straightforward. Valuation analysts then need to model the negotiated or litigated terms attributable to the creditors of the emerging entity. In practice, this involves projecting interest and principal payments to the creditors, including any amounts due to providers of short term, working capital facilities. Finally, the cash-flow test also documents the impact of the net cash-flows on the balance sheet of the emerging entity. This entails modeling changes in the asset base of the company as portions of the expected cash-flows are invested in working capital and capital equipment, as well as changes in the debt obligations of and equity interests in the company as the remaining cash-flows are disbursed to the capital providers. A reorganization plan is generally considered viable if such a detailed cash-flow model indicates solvent operations for the foreseeable future.ConclusionManagers of companies going through a Chapter 11 restructuring process need to juggle an extraordinary set of additional responsibilities — evaluating alternate strategies, implementing new and difficult business plans, and negotiating with various stakeholders — while continuing to operate the business. For this reason, it is common for a company that has filed for Chapter 11 to seek help from outside third party specialists to formulate a reorganization plan that can facilitate a successful navigation through the bankruptcy court. Valuation specialists can provide useful advice and perspective during the negotiation of the reorganization plan. The specialists can also help prepare the valuation and financial analysis necessary to satisfy the requirements for a reorganization plan to be confirmed by a bankruptcy court.Endnotes1 Accounting Standards Codification Topic 852, Reorganizations ("ASC 852"). ASC 852-05-8. 2 ASC 852-10-20
Preferences and FinTech Valuations
Preferences and FinTech Valuations
2015 was a strong year for FinTech. For those still skeptical, consider the following:All three publicly traded FinTech niches that we track (Payments, Solutions, and Technology) beat the broader market, rising 11 to 14% compared to a 1% return for the S&P 500;FinTech M&A volume and pricing rose sharply over recent historical periods with 195 announced deals and a median deal value of $74 million in 2015 (Figure 1);A number of notable fundings for private FinTech companies occurred with roughly $9.0 billion raised among approximately 130 U.S. FinTech companies in larger funding rounds (only includes raises over $10 million). One of the more notable FinTech events in 2015 was Square's IPO, which occurred in the fourth quarter. Square is a financial services and mobile payments company that is one of the more prominent FinTech companies with its high profile founder (Jack Dorsey, the Twitter co-founder and CEO) and early investors (Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia Capital). Its technology is recognizable with most of us having swiped a card through one of their readers attached to a phone after getting a haircut, sandwich, or cup of coffee. Not surprisingly, Square was among the first FinTech Unicorns, reaching that mark in June 2011. Its valuation based on private funding rounds sat at the top of U.S.-based FinTech companies in mid-2015. So all eyes in the FinTech community were on Square as it went public in late 2015. Market conditions were challenging then (compared to even more challenging in early 2016 for an IPO), but Square had a well-deserved A-list designation among investors. Unfortunately, the results were mixed. Although the IPO was successful in that the shares priced, Square went public at a price of $9 per share, which was below the targeted range of $11 to $13 per share. Also, the IPO valuation of about $3 billion was sharply below the most recent fundraising round that valued the company in excess of $5 billion. In the category its great pay if you can get it, most Series E investors in the last funding round had a ratchet provision that provided for a 20% return on their investment, even if the offering price fell below the $18.56 per share price required to produce that return. The ratchet locked in through the issuance of additional shares to the Series E investors. The resulting dilution was borne by other investors not protected by the ratchet. On the flip side the IPO was not so bad for new investors. Square shares rose more than 45% over the course of the opening day of trading and then traded in the vicinity of $12 to $13 per share through year-end. With the decline in equity markets in early 2016, the shares traded near the $9 IPO price in mid-February. IPO pricing is always tricky—especially in the tech space—given the competing demands between a company floating shares, the underwriter, and prospective shareholders. The challenge for the underwriter is to establish the right price to build a sizable order book that may produce a first day pop, but not one that is so large that existing investors are diluted. According to MarketWatch, less than 2% of 2,236 IPOs that priced below the low end of their filing range since 1980 saw a first day pop of more than 40%. By that measure, Square really is a unique company. One notable takeaway from Square's experience is that the pricing of the IPO as much as any transaction may have marked the end of the era of astronomical private market valuations for Unicorn technology companies. The degree of astronomical depends on what is being measured, however. We have often noted that the headline valuation number in a private, fundraising round is often not the real value for the company. Rather, the price in the most recent private round reflects all of the rights and economic attributes of the share class, which usually are not the same for all shareholders, particularly investors in earlier fundraising rounds. As Travis Harms, my colleague at Mercer Capital noted: "It's like applying the pound price for filet mignon to the entire cow – you can't do that because the cow includes a lot of other stuff that is not in the filet." While a full discussion of investor preferences and ratchets is beyond the scope of this article, they are fairly common in venture-backed companies. Recent studies by Fenwick & West of Unicorn fundraisings noted that the vast majority offered investors some kind of liquidation preference. The combination of investor preferences and a decline in pricing relative to prior funding rounds can result in asymmetrical price declines across the capital structure and result in a misalignment of incentives. John McFarlane, Sonos CEO, noted this when he stated: "If you're all aligned then no matter what happens, you're in the same boat… The really high valuation companies right now are giving out preferences – that's not alignment." A real-world example of this misalignment was reported in a New York Times story in late 2015 regarding Good Technology, a Unicorn that ended up selling to BlackBerry for approximately $425 million in September 2015. While a $425 million exit might be considered a success for a number of founders and investors, the transaction price was less than half of Good's purported $1.1 billion valuation in a private round. The article noted that while a number of investors had preferences associated with their shares that softened the extent of the pricing decline, many employees did not. "For some employees, it meant that their shares were practically worthless. Even worse, they had paid taxes on the stock based on the higher value." As the Good story illustrates, the valuation process can be challenging for venture-backed technology companies, particularly those with several different share classes and preferences across the capital structure, but these valuations can have very real consequence for stakeholders, particularly employees. Thus, it is important to have a valuation process with formalized procedures to demonstrate compliance with tax and financial reporting regulations when having valuations performed. Certainly, the prospects for scrutiny from auditors, SEC, and/or IRS are possible but very real tax issues can also result around equity compensation for employees. Given the complexities in valuing venture-backed technology companies and the ability for market/investor sentiment to shift quickly, it is important to have a valuation professional that can assess the value of the company as well as the market trends prevalent in the industry. At Mercer Capital, we attempt to gain a thorough understanding of the economics of the most recent funding round to provide a market-based "anchor" for valuation at a subsequent date. Once the model is calibrated, we can then assess what changes have occurred (both in the market and at the subject company) since the last funding round to determine what impact if any that may have on valuation. Call us if you have any questions. For those interested in additional FinTech trends, check out our latest FinTech industry newsletter and sign up for future issues here. Related LinksFinTech Newsletter 4Q15 | Venture Capital Case Study: StripeIs a Bubble Forming in FinTechMercer Capital's Financial Reporting BlogMercer Capital monitors the latest financial reporting news relevant to CFOs and financial managers. The Financial Reporting Blog is updated weekly. Follow us on Twitter at @MercerFairValue.
Value Driver Considerations in Appraising Sports Franchises
Value Driver Considerations in Appraising Sports Franchises
OverviewThe valuation of sports properties is often perceived as one of the most exciting areas of the appraisal profession. Sports business mandates constitute an amalgam of traditional valuation approaches applied to a specialized industry niche possessing its own distinct value drivers and considerations.Sports property valuations may be required in a variety of situations, including:mergers and acquisitions;fairness opinions;business reorganizations;shareholder disputes;structuring shareholder agreements;income tax;estate planning;insolvency;commercial litigation; andmarital disputes. While the purchase and sale of professional sports franchises and arenas constitute the most visible event necessitating the participation of an experienced valuator, the foregoing situations also can give rise to valuation mandates. For example, in 1994, the Toronto Maple Leafs NHL franchise and the arena in which the team played, Maple Leaf Gardens, were owned by a public company, Maple Leaf Gardens, Limited, which was being taken private. Consequently, the fairness opinions that had been prepared in connection with this going-private transaction were called into question by The Public Guardian and Trustee of Ontario and the Attorney General for Ontario. A vigorous litigation ensued, in which the valuation professionals played a central role. As is the case with many businesses, shareholder agreements can necessitate valuation mandates, as sports teams and arenas are often owned by numerous individuals and/or corporations. For example, at the date this was written, the Calgary Flames NHL franchise was held by over two dozen owners, and the Green Bay Packers NFL team was owned by several thousand individuals, most of whom were members of the local Wisconsin community. Both friendly transactions and acrimonious disputes among shareholders occurring under such shareholder agreements will typically require the involvement of one or more valuation professionals to determine the value of the entity holding the sports-related assets (or interests therein). Income tax and estate planning also constitute frequent sources of valuation work involving sports organizations. Those sports properties that have been owned by families will often, at some point, require valuations to be performed for intergenerational transfers of ownership among family members. Moreover, considering the significant appreciation in value experienced by professional sports franchises around the globe during the past few decades, owners of sports properties eventually may need to contend with capital gains-related issues. Valuation professionals often provide integral assistance in this process. Insolvency or restructuring involving either a professional sports organization or one of the owners thereof is another event that will frequently necessitate the expertise of business valuators. For example, in the 1990s, there were several high-profile bankruptcies of English Premier League football (i.e., soccer) organizations that occurred after several previous rounds of financing had been obtained. At every step of the way, from the initial financing to the restructuring or asset liquidation process, business valuations are typically required to provide an indication of worth of the sports franchise and related properties.Price Versus Fair Market ValueThe valuation of professional sports properties provides an excellent illustration of the difference between price and fair market value in a "real world" setting. As valuation professionals are well aware, there are generally two distinct sets of circumstances where the value of a business is determined:Notional Market Valuation. Fair market value, fair value or some other legislated or defined value is often notionally determined in the absence of an open-market transaction. The value standard most frequently applied in notional market valuations is "fair market value." The generally accepted definition of this valuation term by North American courts is:The (highest)1 price, expressed in terms of cash equivalents, at which property would change hands between a hypothetical willing and able buyer and a hypothetical willing and able seller, acting at arm’s length in an open and unrestricted market, when neither is under compulsion to buy or sell and when both have reasonable knowledge of the relevant facts.Open-Market Transaction. Price is negotiated between a vendor and a purchaser acting at arm’s length. The term "price" is defined as "the consideration paid in a negotiated, open-market transaction involving the purchase and sale of an asset." In a sports market context, sentimental value may occasionally represent a component of price. This concept is evidenced by a sports team owner who is an extremely wealthy individual and does not view the acquisition of a sports team from an economic perspective but rather as a "trophy." An investment involving sentimental value, in other words, may be ego-driven in nature and made by a purchaser who is willing and able to absorb significant losses. Special interest purchasers are often present in the marketplace for professional sports properties. Special interest purchasers are generally defined as: "acquirers who believe they can enjoy post-acquisition economies of scale, synergies, or strategic advantages by combining the acquired business interest with their own." Examples of these types of purchasers are large companies possessing broadcasting, media and entertainment operations that can avail themselves of synergies presented by controlling assets relating to professional sports organizations. In recent years, a number of such companies have successfully acquired professional sports properties in order to benefit from the content provided to the purchaser’s media distribution network. In the sports business world, both of the above sets of circumstances are frequently encountered. As is illustrated below, there may be significant differences between fair market value and price. For example, fair market value typically assumes the following conditions exist:equal knowledge and negotiating skills;no compulsion to transact;generally no special interest purchaser considerations;imprudent actions and emotions are not considered;vendor and purchaser are assumed to deal at arm’s length; andtransaction is assumed to be consummated for cash. In contrast, the price determined in an open-market transaction may be influenced by the following considerations:unequal knowledge and negotiating skills;compulsion to transact may be present (e.g., a sale made in an insolvency setting even if the purchaser intends to continue the sports organization as a going concern);special interest purchasers may force the price upward;price may be struck as a result of imprudent decisions by the vendor, the purchaser or both;sentimental value considerations may force the price upward;outwardly, vendor and purchaser may appear to act at arm’s length, but may have common interests due to the elements of the transaction, such as vendor employment agreements, noncompetition agreements, etc.; and/orthe negotiated price may contain noncash elements, such as contingent "earn-out" or bonus payments, freely trading or restricted shares and/or debt instruments.Valuation ApproachesAs is the case with most businesses, a sports franchise’s value is derived from its future benefits, such as revenues, EBITDA and net cash flow. Among the factors influencing the perceived future benefits for a sports franchise include its management team, trademarks, brands and logos, customer "fan base" relations, customer contracts (e.g., season tickets, corporate boxes, personal seat licenses), player relations and contracts, broadcasting contracts, arena ownership or lease agreements, team-alliance synergies, local demographics (e.g., population size, wealth, popularity of sport), etc.Simply put, the fundamental goal for a sports team owner is to maximize the number of fans in the seats (or viewing the matches via broadcast media), and the goal for an arena/ stadium owner is to minimize the number of "dark nights" in which no event is occurring in the building.Admittedly, while future benefits often cannot be measured with absolute certainty, franchise values will change in a manner commensurate with perceived increases and decreases in such benefits. In the sports business world, while no single approach or formula can be used to determine the value of sports properties in every situation, different approaches and methods have been adopted for estimating future benefits and franchise/asset values.In sports business valuations, the Market Approach is often frequently utilized, considering the active market that exists for many professional sports properties. In the Market Approach, the subject sports property is compared to similar properties by performing a detailed analysis of prior transactions involving similar sports properties and/or in the ownership of the subject sports franchise or asset.Transactional IssuesIn analyzing transactions in sports properties, aside from reviewing the amount and structure of the transaction price, it is frequently necessary for the valuation professional to identify and quantify key organizational elements that generate value for the subject professional sports club, such as (but not limited to) management team and personnel, corporate operations, finance and technology.It is a sports business paradigm that the management team should, in maximizing franchise value, maintain and enhance the quality of the team brand. Such brand value enhancement may be performed in a variety of ways, including winning on-field victories and championships, attracting individual "marquee" players, fostering positive community relations and developing a robust tradition ultimately bestowing "iconic" status on the sports franchise.For example, the valuator should examine the quality of the management team, employees and players, focusing on the club’s ability to retain talent and expertise (on the field, among the coaching staff and in the front office). In order to enhance value, the sports organization should possess the potential to develop future leaders (for both players and management), avoid labor actions (e.g., strikes, lockouts), motivate commitment in its players and employees to the club’s culture and ethics, and strengthen relationships among management, players and employees.In assessing value of sports franchises in a transactional setting, the valuation professional should also examine the ability of the organization to maximize the potential of its corporate operations. For example, the franchise organization should constantly strive to improve capacity utilization wherever possible (e.g., selling out games, maximizing advertising and media revenue). Recent revenue maximization trends by franchise owners in this context have included selling advertising on fixed or rotating panels in close proximity to playing surfaces, inside arena corridors, on building exteriors and on game tickets. Sports team management should also be seeking to optimize other areas of business potential (e.g., creation of team-alliance synergies, increase in the number of official sponsors or partners with the club, etc.).Moreover, the sports organization should periodically assess what investments are required to expand or improve fixed-asset infrastructure (e.g., addition of seats, creation of premium or "club" seat categories, addition or expansion of facility restaurant, bar, concessions and parking facilities). Management should also be cognizant of ways to strengthen the franchise’s market position in the presence of other forms of entertainment competing for the same consumer, media and advertising spending sources.The valuation professional must examine the ability of the sports organization to maximize the value of its intangible assets. Aside from traditional items such as the franchise logo, influencing the popularity of merchandising and licensing revenues, in recent years, savvy sports-marketing experts have derived new sources for professional sports franchises to obtain revenues, notably the leasing of stadium/arena naming rights. Typically, building naming rights are leased for several million dollars annually for terms of 10 to 20 years; these stable revenues often flow directly to the bottom line of the club/building owner.Furthermore, in transactional contexts involving professional sports organizations, the valuation professional should assess the financial strength of the subject business. In particular, the valuator needs to place particular emphasis on the extent to which leverage has been (or may be) utilized to finance capital assets and franchise operations. Other financial issues should be reviewed, including the club’s ability to recognize and maximize all revenues (i.e., deferred revenues) from an accounting standpoint and to depreciate or amortize the franchise itself, player contracts, capital assets, etc. If the franchise is being positioned for sale, it may be desirable for the club to "clean up" the balance sheet, (e.g., eliminate redundant assets such as excess cash, marketable securities, non-operating real estate, inter-company or shareholder loans), adjust overvalued assets and other reserves in order to present the sports business’ true earning power, accelerate the collection of accounts receivable, etc.Finally, sports business valuation experts have increasingly focused on a franchise’s ability to enhance value through the creative use of technology. In recent years, technology has been utilized by sports team owners through innovations such as the use of web-based resources featuring fan club sites and live or archived game broadcasts. Many sports business experts predict a proliferation of fee-based broadcasts of matches and related content through television, Internet audio and video, as well as mobile phone media. Other uses of technology that may create franchise value relate to the extent to which technology can be implemented to improve communications (e.g., within the internal organization, with the fan base and among the league and its members).Value DriversBoth of the concepts of price and fair market value are often influenced by numerous value drivers that relate specifically to professional sports franchises. Among the frequently encountered examples of "external" value drivers (over which a franchise owner exerts little, if any influence) are included, but are by no means restricted to:degree of control of franchise operations by league;finite number of teams permitted in league (i.e., barriers to or ease of entry through expansion);franchise expansion fee (this often constitutes a "floor" to franchise value, as well as a windfall profit to franchise owners when received). For example, in the NHL, the most recent expansion fee paid for a new franchise, occurring 15 years prior to the publication of this paper, was U.S. $85 million. Media reports have stated that the next potential round of NHL expansion could command franchise fees as high as U.S. $400 million;extent and terms of revenue sharing;presence of salary cap;local market barriers to ownership entry/exit;availability of government grants or other forms of financial assistance;market demographics;market radius protection (in the NHL, each franchise is protected by a 50-mile radius, within which another franchise in the league cannot be operated without the existing owner’s permission);ability of the franchise to relocate; andextent to which league approval is required for franchise ownership transactions. Moreover, included among the various salient "internal" value drivers over which a franchise owner typically possesses some ability to influence are:ticket revenue (e.g., season ticket base, ability to increase or vary ticket prices);broadcast revenue (e.g., from television, radio and Internet media);team-alliance synergies (i.e., synergies and benefits derived from common ownership of two or more sports teams);player-transfer fees (i.e., these represent highly lucrative sources of revenue in international soccer);advertising revenue;playoff revenue (revenues from post-season play often contribute significantly to profits);concessions revenue;merchandising and memorabilia revenue (including revenues from licensing team name and logo); andstadium/arena ownership revenues (derived from building sources such as luxury "club" seating, corporate boxes, naming rights and ancillary events such as concerts, unrelated sporting events, conventions, etc.). Interestingly, two factors that do not always constitute significant value drivers for a sports franchise are the win-loss record of the club, as well as the individual players comprising the team. The impact of possessing (or lacking) either championship trophies or superstar players must be assessed by the valuation professional as to the incremental contribution of each to the value of a particular sports organization. Among the important items on the expense side of the income statement that may materially impact the value of a professional sports franchise are included player salaries, which are, in turn, influenced by permitted contractual increases, free agency, union collective bargaining agreements, long-term injuries to or retirements of players, etc. Franchise owners who do not own the stadium/arena facility will also be subject to leases for building rental, as well as possibly leases for concessions, merchandising and/or parking facilities. Moreover, some teams, such as Canadian NHL franchises, must contend with material foreign currency risk, as their revenues will be received in the local currency while some of their expenses (e.g., player salaries) may be denominated in a foreign currency. Finally, the ability of a sports club to claim amortization expense on its franchise cost, player contracts and capital assets will impact its fiscal situation, as well as its operating cash flows.ConclusionWhile the sports business field may be a source of some exciting mandates for the valuation practitioner, as the above narrative indicates, sports properties encompass a highly specialized segment of our profession that is subject to its own distinct challenges.This article originally appeared in Wolters Kluwer's Business Valuation Alert, January 2015.About the AuthorsDrew Dorweiler, MBA, CPA, ABV, CBV, ASA, CBA, CFE, CVA, FRICS, is Managing Partner at IJW Co. Don Erickson, ASA, is Managing Director of Mercer Capital. Endnote1 The word "highest" is added to the Fair Market Value definition in Canada.
2015: A Good Year for Banks
2015: A Good Year for Banks
After weak broad market performance in the first quarter of the year and slow advances during the summer, U.S. stocks generally saw amplified returns in the fourth quarter of 2015. The largest banks (those with over $50 billion in assets) generally performed in line with broad market trends, but most banks outperformed the market with total returns on the order of 10% to 15% for the year (Figure 1). Bank stock performance improved markedly in the fourth quarter as speculation following the FOMC’s September meeting suggested rate increases may begin in the fourth quarter. In mid-December, the FOMC met again and, after seven years of its zero interest rate policy, announced an increase in the target fed funds rate. The shift in monetary policy is expected to gradually improve strains on banks’ net interest margins and should be most apparent for banks with more asset-sensitive balance sheets, though community banks that may have made more loans with longer fixed terms or loan floors may experience some tightening in the short term. Bank returns generally averaged around 0% to 30% in 2015, though 17% of the U.S. banks analyzed (traded on the NASDAQ, NYSE, or NYSE Market exchanges for the full year) realized negative total returns. These included banks continuing to deal with high levels of NPAs; banks that are located in oil-dependent areas such as Louisiana and Texas; and some banks that have been active acquirers that missed Street expectations. On the other end, a few high performers in 2015 include merger targets as well as banks that have seen more success from acquisition activity (Figure 2). One of the primary factors contributing to stronger returns in 2015 was loan growth. Banks with loan growth over 10% exhibited above-average returns, while those with slower growth tended to exhibit lower returns, with the exception of banks that shrank their portfolios during the year, though for these banks the higher returns likely reflected prior years’ underperformance that was priced into the stocks (Figure 3). Asset-sensitive banks also outperformed in 2015. While asset sensitivity is difficult to evaluate from publicly available data, we measured asset sensitivity by the proportion of loans maturing or repricing in less than three months from September 30, 2015, relative to total loans (both obtained from FR Y-9C filings). Limiting the analysis to publicly traded banks with assets between $1 billion to $5 billion reveals that the most asset sensitive banks returned about 16% in 2015, or 400 basis points more than less asset sensitive banks (Figure 4). Though the smallest banks generally realized the highest returns in 2015, pricing multiples were strongest for banks with assets between $1 and $10 billion, which generally saw better profitability than the smaller banks. Year-over-year, pricing multiples generally remained flat from 2014 (Figure 5). Mercer Capital is a national business valuation and financial advisory firm. Financial Institutions are the cornerstone of our practice. To discuss a valuation or transaction issue in confidence, feel free to contact us.
The Oil and Gas Shift is Impacting the Industry in a Few Key Areas
The Oil and Gas Shift is Impacting the Industry in a Few Key Areas
Anybody who has been to a gas pump in the last several months can tell you that the energy industry is currently in the throes of change. Prices are falling to lows that they haven’t seen in almost a decade and the industry itself is being impacted in a large number of different ways. The changing face of economics and the marketplace has presented an entirely new set of challenges that businesses will have to adapt to in order to thrive well into the future.The Changing Face of Economics and the MarketplaceAnother significant change that will impact the oil and gas industries in 2015 and beyond has to do with current market fluctuations that will affect profitability. It’s no secret that oil prices started plummeting in 2014 and show no signs of slowing down. Bernstein Research, for example, estimates that a full 1/3 of all shale projects in the United States become unprofitable once prices fall below $80.This is a case-by-case basis, however, and is not blanket fact. The Bakken formation in North Dakota, for example, will still be profitable so long as prices do not fall below $42 per barrel – according to the IEA. ScotiaBank’s own research indicates that prices have to stay between $60 to $80 per barrel for the Bakken formation to remain profitable.Changes in Production and DemandA large part of the reason why oil prices are continuing to fall has to do with two other significant changes that are impacting the industry: namely, changes to the total amount of oil that the United States and Canada are producing, as well as changes to the demand for oil in areas of the world like Europe and Asia.According to the International Energy Agency (also commonly referred to as the IEA), shale production in the United States is expected to shift dramatically in the coming years. In scenarios both where oil prices remain roughly where they are and where they continue to fall even farther, the IEA predicts that shale production will still continue to grow, just at a much slower rate than it has been in the last several years. To put that into perspective, production is still expected to increase an additional 950,000+ barrels per day throughout the entirety of 2015.Another important factor to consider has to do with infrastructure with regards to existing investments. There are a large number of energy companies that have already paid a great deal of money purchasing land, obtaining necessary permits and performing other tasks necessary to drilling. Even if oil prices continue to fall, these companies can’t necessarily curb back on their production or they fear losing an even greater investment than initially feared. In these types of situations, the true “break even” price in production varies depending on the operator and their tolerance versus the amount of debt that they’ve taken on. Even still, it may be too early to tell in many cases how firm those tolerances really are.The boom in increased oil production in the United States and Canada has created something of a tricky situation for the industry as a whole. After sinking a huge amount of money into infrastructure over the last several years, businesses now have to contend with falling prices that show no signs of slowing down. In order to adapt they will have to look for ways to embrace new technology and streamline production in order to stay profitable well into the future and to break through into a bold new era for the industry as a whole.This article was originally published in Valuation Viewpoint, January 2015.
Does the Clippers $2 Billion Deal Make Sense?
Does the Clippers $2 Billion Deal Make Sense?
In recent court testimony, Bank of America – Merrill Lynch (“BoA”) revealed its bid book (“Project Claret”) prepared for potential buyers of a NBA franchise, the Los Angeles Clippers (“Clippers”). We are going to analyze elements within the Project Claret document with a particular focus on the revenue estimate of the local media contract renewal in 2014.Let’s look at BoA’s estimate of local media revenues primarily related to television content. BoA forecasted television rights payment in June 2014 year-end at $25.8 million from the current contract projecting it to $125 million for a new local media contract. Michael Ozanian of Forbes recently estimated the 2014 new contract amount to most likely be closer to $75 million. I agree with Mr. Ozanian for the following reasons:If the Los Angeles Lakers (“Lakers”), back in 2011, signed a local media television rights contract for $5 billion over 25 years, then the average is approximately $200 million a year. Typically these contracts have annual escalation clauses and if the total payout is $5 billion, then the amount in 2012 is close to $100 million for the Lakers. You need to escalate that to about $110 million in 2014.The television ratings of the Lakers are multiples of the Clippers and cable subscribers ultimately pay for the right’s fees. So if you are a sophisticated buyer of sports content, like Fox Broadcasting Company or Time Warner Cable, are you going to pay the same dollar amount for the Clippers as you did for the Lakers? The Clippers have ½ the television ratings of the Lakers (1.28 vs 2.72) in the current year. To quote a recent Variety article, “This is believed to be the closest the Clippers have come to the Lakers in television ratings since the 1999-2000 season.” Additionally, the Lakers experienced a very poor win/loss record in the 2013-2014 season. If one analyzed their historical results, the Clippers have less than 1/3 of the viewership as the Lakers (121,000 vs 390,000) last year. Therefore, how much will the Clippers realistically get in 2014 with the new contract? $75 million is approximately 68% of our estimated Lakers deal amount and seems generous based on the raw ratings numbers. However, if we utilize the Forbes estimate of $75 million in 2014 and the other BoA revenue estimates for game admissions ($62.3 million) and other team revenue ($136.8 million), the total revenue estimate for the Clippers would be $274.1 million in 2014 versus the $324.1 million utilized in BoA Project Claret. If one assumes a multiple of 5x revenues, which is the high end of multiples paid for an NBA team to date, the indicated enterprise value estimate is $1.370 billion, a far cry from $2 billion. Additionally, many times when dealing with estimates of future results (in this case an estimate of future revenue) the valuation multiple applied should be lower than actual transaction multiples. These multiples are calculated based on historical revenues, which are usually lower than future estimates. It seems clear to us that based on the data available the $2 billion price from Steve Ballmer is a good deal for the Sterling Trust. This article was originally published inValuation Viewpoint, August 2014.
Exploring the Major League Baseball Value Explosion
Exploring the Major League Baseball Value Explosion
From 2000 to 2005, Major League Baseball teams were selling for much less than National Football League teams, i.e., typically under $200 million. Most of the MLB teams were showing losses at the time, and there was limited interest in buying the teams that did come up for sale. But the buying and selling environment changed dramatically in 2012, with the Los Angeles Dodgers selling for over $2.15 billion in a spirited auction with sixteen initial bidders.1What has caused this explosion in MLB prices and do these high prices make sense?In this article, I attempt to answer this question as I discuss MLB franchise price/value changes in the last fifteen years and whether these dramatic jumps in prices/values make economic/market sense.First, I illustrate actual transaction prices for MLB teams in the early 2000s. I then show the significant increases—starting in 2008—leading to the blockbuster $2.15 billion Dodgers deal in 2012.I then demonstrate the value changes published by Forbes Magazine and discuss key economic changes in the industry (i.e. MLB) that have contributed to these price jumps of twice—and sometimes three times—the 2005 prices for MLB franchises.Finally, I explore the actual financials for the Texas Rangers and a history of the prices paid for the Rangers over the years.For definition purposes, when we discuss values, we are always discussing enterprise (equity + debt), not equity values, and when we discuss revenue multiples, we are discussing total revenues from team/franchise and stadium interests, but excluding regional sports network (RSN) interests.Deal Prices and MLB Values Estimated by Forbes MagazineAs Chart 1 shows, enterprise prices for MLB teams from 2000 to 2005 were less than $200 million, except for the 2004 Dodgers deal, which came in at $430 million. In 2006, two transactions increased to the low $400 million range. In 2008, a San Francisco Giants deal indicated $700 million, and the Chicago Cubs in 2009 were sold for over $800 million. In 2009 during the “Great Recession,” a smaller market team, the San Diego Padres, transacted at $500 million. Also in 2009, the Texas Rangers sold at $595 million during a bankruptcy bidding war. Finally, the chart shows the big jump with the bankruptcy auction prices of the L.A. Dodgers and their stadium and land at $2.15 billion in 2012.Changes in Revenue MultiplesUnlike entities in other industries, major league sports teams are usually valued using a market approach rather than an income approach. Most of their enterprise values are referenced as a multiple of team and stadium revenues.The multiples in revenues paid for actual transactions in the early 2000s were in the 2.0 times to 2.5 times range, but recent deals have been over 4.0 times revenues. The recent 4.0 times multiple reflects anticipated growth in revenues since sophisticated and well-heeled buyers are anticipating significant future revenue growth.In Table 1, Forbes estimates are developed by Forbes editors utilizing public sources, their proprietary methods of estimating team revenues and expenses, and their judgment as to the valuation multiple to be applied to their revenue estimates.3 By 2014 (see Table 2), Forbes average MLB value estimate had jumped to $811 million and had a 3.3 times multiple. The values ranged from $2.5 billion for the Yankees to $485 million for the Tampa Bay Rays. The average revenue estimates for the league have only increased from $183 million to $237 million or thirty percent. Yet the average valuation multiple increased from 2.6 times to 3.3 times causing the average team value to increase sixty-four percent. What caused this significant increase? The answer: potential for increased local revenues due to an explosion in media rights fees. Meteoric Media Rights Fee IncreasesAs mentioned earlier, recent media rights fees for local broadcasts of MLB teams have increased three to five times that of older contracts. These older contracts may have been ten years in length, but the new ones can be in force as long as twenty-five years.Unlike the total revenues for NFL teams and, to a lesser extent, those of the NBA, local media rights fees make up the majority of revenues for MLB teams. In many markets, the content providers (cable and satellite companies) are vying for a unique live product that can differentiate them in the marketplace. This competition has caused bidding wars for TV and other media rights to MLB teams.The largest current local MLB media contract was negotiated by the L.A. Dodgers and was recently approved by MLB. In this contract, the L.A. Dodgers will reportedly receive $6 billion after a revenue-sharing split with MLB. This equates to an average of $240 million a year over twenty-five years. The old Dodgers contract was approximately $50 million dollars in its last year.The next highest are the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros at $80 million a year on average. In addition, the national TV MLB has jumped also—see Table 3. It should be noted that part of the massive increase in payments to the L.A. Dodgers by Time Warner Cable is covered by Time Warner’s plan to pass the costs on to other pay TV providers, including Direct TV, Dish Network, Charter Communications, and Cox Communications. Currently, Time Warner Cable and their providers are deadlocked on the price increases they will pay for airing the L.A. Dodger games. The providers contend that Time Warner’s cable price for their L.A. Dodger sports channel is too high. How this negotiation is settled will affect prices other providers pay nationwide. For example, the Houston Astros RSN has not been picked up by many of the local providers and the RSN has been forced to file for bankruptcy. Table 4 shows the changes in the MLB National media contracts with the various networks. We note that the ESPN contracts increased from $296 million a year to $700 million a year. The Fox contract increased from $257 million a year to $525 million a year, etc. In short, the new national contracts increased by 120 percent from the other contract. At the height of the recession, the San Diego Padres sold for $500 million in 2009. It resold in 2012 for $800 million due primarily to a major jump in a local media contract. Are the teams making so much money that they warranted such a much higher price based on profits? The answer, surprisingly, is “no, not really.” Case Study: Texas RangersThe Texas Rangers sale in 2009 to the highest bidder out of bankruptcy court7 is a good example (Table 5). Note that these numbers were prior to any regional media contract increases now scheduled to begin with the 2015 season. Also note that annual amounts shown in the both the local and national contracts are averages and the initial year of the contract is usually much less than the average price shown. All teams are subject to a player salary cap, which come with significant penalties if violated. So conceptually, if your revenues go up $50 million in a particular year, that amount could fall to the bottom line. How much is $50 million of profit worth to buyers whose primary value driver is not cash flow? It could be $500 million. It could be $1 billion. Which then causes people to wonder how much profit do these teams actually make? The answer is that many lose money—some significant amounts. Many people ask why anyone would pay these amounts to buy teams if they do not make a reasonable profit. There are two main answers to that: Every buyer has a different motivation.Few of us can look at “investments” through the lens of a multi-billionaire to whom a $10 to $50 million annual loss is not significant to their financial well-being.Texas Rangers Price HistoryThe Texas Rangers also provide a good example of transaction price changes in the MLB. Table 6 shows the transactions in the team since 1974. Please note that in the $595 million 2010 transaction, the team was making very little money and with signing bonuses deducted, was not cash flow positive. What is the value of this team, considering such facts? ConclusionThe intensity of local revenues for MLB has created a perfect storm for MLB teams as the media engages in a buying frenzy for live local sports entertainment.Multiples of 4.0 times revenues are now becoming the new normal versus 2.0 times prior to 2006 driven by local revenue growth with media leading the way. Media contracts are increasing three to five times the annual amounts negotiated in the early to mid-2000s. The outlook for increased local media contracts will create new and higher MLB club transactions for years to come.But what about value creation? In the case of the Dodgers, if their media revenue increases up hypothetically $200 million a year from the previous contract, how much increase in value will that create? Could it be an extra billion dollars or more? At the end of the day, these local media contract increases, coupled with the new increased national media contracts, generally tend to support the new much higher level of MLB prices.Obviously, the smaller markets do not enjoy the same increases as the major markets like Los Angeles and New York, etc., but their new contracts will increase in multiples of older contracts i.e., from $15 to $20 million a year to $50 million plus as media providers compete for the exclusive content that live sports provides.This article was originally published inThe Value Examiner, September/October 2014.EndnotesBrian Solomon, “$2 Billion Dodgers Sale Tops List of Most Expensive Sports Team Purchases Ever,” Forbes Magazine, March 29, 2012, http://www.forbes. com/sites/briansolomon/2012/03/29/2-billion-dodgers-sale-tops-list-ofmost-expensive-sports-team-purchases-ever/.Michael K. Ozanian and Kurt Badenhausen, “The Business of Baseball,” Forbes Magazine, April 16, 2008, http: http://www.forbes.com/2008/04/16/baseballteam-values-biz-sports-baseball08-cx_mo_kb_0416baseballintro.html. Note the remaining nineteen teams are shown on the NACVA website at http://www.nacva.com/examiner/14-SO-Charts.asp.Until recently, Forbes was the only public source of estimates for major league sports teams. They have been developing revenue, profit, and value estimates for over seventeen years. Numbers are as of Dec. 31, 2013.Mike Ozanian, “Baseball Team Values 2014 Led by New York Yankees at $2.5 Billion,” Forbes Magazine, March 26, 2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2014/03/26/baseball-team-values-2014-led-by-newyork-yankees-at-2-5-billion/.Sources: Proprietary team sources.6 Christina Settimi, “Baseball Scores 12 Billion in Baseball Deals,” Forbes Magazine, October 2, 2012, www.forbes.com.Bankruptcy Court For The Northern District Of Texas Fort Worth Division, Texas Rangers Baseball Partners, Chapter 11, Case No. 10-43400-DML.Source: ProprietarySource: Proprietary
Are There Really 2 NHLs?
Are There Really 2 NHLs?
When it comes to the four major league sports (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL), the NBA and MLB have had less success in Canada vs. the USA, primarily due to demographics. With the exception of Toronto, most of the cities tend to be smaller and have fewer corporate headquarters relative to U.S. cities. Currently there is only one NBA and one MLB team in Canada, both in Toronto.There is one major league sport, however, that is thriving in Canada, the National Hockey League (“NHL”). The NHL teams in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal are doing very well. In fact, they’re doing much better on average than their U.S. counterpart cities that have much larger populations (i.e. Dallas and Atlanta which is now a former NHL city). So much so that one may say there are really two NHLs, the Canadian NHL and the U.S. NHL.How can that be?Let’s look at the estimated 2013 franchise values of the teams as published by Forbes magazine. Three of the seven Canadien teams are in the top four of league franchise values. The Toronto Maple Leafs are first at $1.2 billion, the Montreal Canadiens third at $775 million and the Vancouver Canucks fourth at $700 million. The NHL league average is $413 million. The remaining Canadian teams are valued as follows:(#11) Calgary Flames $420 million(#14) Edmonton Oilers $400 million(#15) Ottawa Senators $380 million(#16) Winnipeg Jets $340 million Our home team, the Dallas Stars, comes in at $333 million and the Columbus Blue Jackets rank last at $175 million. Now some interesting numbers: the seven Canadian teams feature values averaging $595 million, while the 23 American NHL teams average $358 million. That’s a little over half of the Canadian teams. How can the New York Islanders, with a metropolitan statistical area (“MSA”) population of 19.9 million, be worth $195 million, while the Winnipeg Jets, with an MSA population of 0.7 million, are valued at $340 million? Additionally how can Vancouver, with a MSA population of 2.3 million, be valued at $700 million? The franchise value relationship with MSA population does not directly correlate. How can this be? The answer is the popularity of hockey in Canada has no comparison to most U.S. cities. Hockey is the national sport of Canada. Kids grow up playing it, watching it and living it. That culture creates much greater revenue and profits for their teams. This can be demonstrated by analyzing the national television revenues and the local revenues of NHL teams.NHL: National Television RevenuesThe U.S. has a population of 319 million people vs. 35 million for Canada, yet the national TV rights for the NHL in Canada was recently won by Rogers Communications for $5.2 billion over 12 years, or an average of $433 million a year. This compares to the $2 billion, 10-year NBC U.S. deal which averages $200 million per year. In addition, 65% of the Canadian national TV rights will be shared with the 23 U.S. teams. It is interesting that a country with one-tenth the population gets about 2.2 times the national TV revenues compared to the U.S. and then has to share with the U.S. teams.NHL: Local RevenuesLocal TV rights are retained by the teams, as are other local revenues from suites, sponsorship and ticket revenues. Here again, the Canadian teams far outshine the U.S. teams. Forbes estimates the average NHL ticket prices in Canada for six out of the seven teams was $70 for non-premium tickets. Forbes estimated that small markets, Edmonton and Calgary, each had $1.6 million in annual ticket revenues. Compare that figure with the New York Rangers ticket revenue of $1.8 million, and that comparison is shocking (if that is not shocking to you, please compare populations of the three cities). Additionally, local television viewing shows the same type of comparisons as national TV viewing. Therefore, smaller Canadian markets like Vancouver will have multiples of local TV revenue when compared to a larger U.S. market, like Dallas.ConclusionIn conclusion, after considering the numbers, it is hard to make a case for franchise value comparison between Canadian and U.S. NHL teams. Clearly, the economics indicate there are two different NHLs.This article was originally published inValuation Viewpoint, October 2014.
NBA Team Values: Three Ways Cuban and his Owner Bretheren are Cashing In
NBA Team Values: Three Ways Cuban and his Owner Bretheren are Cashing In
In a recent article Mark Cuban commented how media revenues will push National Basketball Association (“NBA”) valuations far higher than they are currently. “If we do this right, it’s not inconceivable that every NBA franchise will be worth more than $1 billion within ten years,” he was quoted as saying. While that observation could be on the money, it’s not the only engine that drives NBA team values. NBA franchises are unique properties that are often among the most attractive and reported upon assets in the US (and globally for that matter thanks to Mr. Prokhorov). The undergirding economics of these teams are complex and nuanced. When value drivers align, good things happen and value is unlocked. Like a flywheel with momentum, certain dynamics can push values upward quickly. However, the same dynamics can push the flywheel off its hinges, bringing values crashing down. It’s an exciting property that doesn’t always follow the path of conventional valuation theory, which might be a reason why a Maverick like Mark Cuban loves it so much.NBA franchise values have recently gone in an upward direction as evidenced by the Sacramento Kings’ $534 million sale in January 2013. That’s quite a figure for the 27th ranked metropolitan statistical area (“MSA”) in the country. This transaction is especially fascinating in light of the Philadelphia 76ers (5th largest MSA) selling for only $280 million just 18 months earlier. What fuels such a vast difference? We explore three issues that contribute considerably to these variances – media rights, arena lease structure, and the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement (“CBA”). Some of these factors are more within an owner’s control than others, but all of them contribute to situational changes that valuations hinge upon. We’ll also explore the tale of two transactions: the 76ers and Kings, to see why and how these factors influence the purchase price.Media Rights: The Quest for Live ContentIt is important to note the majority of NBA team revenues come from local sources, (i.e. game day revenues and local media contracts). The most dynamic (and thus value changing) of these sources in the past few years has been local media rights. National media revenues in NBA are significant but are a much lower percentage of total revenues than the biggest league in North America, the NFL. According to Forbes, the 30 NBA teams collectively generated $628 million from local media last season (about $21 million average per team). In addition, national revenues from ESPN, ABC & TNT total $930 million per year and these deals expire in 2015-2016. It’s a relatively balanced mix compared to the other major leagues. NHL & MLB’s media revenues are more locally focused, while the NFL is nationally dominated.Basketball’s popularity has grown in recent years. This, coupled with intense media competition for quality live content, has fueled increased media contracts in many markets at unprecedented levels (300% to 500%) over prior contracts.Live sports programming has a relatively fixed supply and is experiencing increased demand from networks looking for content those viewers will watch live. This commands higher advertising dollars compared to content that is consumed over DVRs and online forms (Netflix, Hulu Plus, Amazon Prime, etc.). Content providers also covet the low production costs and favorable demographics of younger fans. These factors, among other variables, have helped fuel the rapid price increases for sports media rights.Recently, new media rights contracts across all sports programming have soared to record high annual payout levels. The NHL signed two new TV deals in April 2011 which more than doubled the league’s previous annual payouts with an upfront payment of $142 million. Even the media rights for Wimbledon have seen an increase in the amount of suitors. The NBA’s current national deal expires in a couple of years (2016). Many people expect that the next deal’s value will at least double the current agreement. [Side note: In negotiations that date back to the 70’s ABA/NBA merger, two brothers – Ozzie and Daniel Silna, received a direct portion of the NBA’s national TV revenues – in perpetuity. That’s right…perpetuity. In January 2014 they agreed to a $500 million upfront payment from the NBA and a pathway to eventually buy them out completely. The old transaction has withstood litigation and it has been termed as ‘the greatest sports business deal of all time’]      At the local level, in 2011 the Los Angeles Lakers signed the richest television deal in the NBA which dwarfs other teams. The contract reportedly averages $200 million per year for 20 years. The upper tier NBA franchises historically have received $25 to $35 million annually.   Some big market teams have expiring contracts in the next few years, such as the Mavericks. While bidding has not yet begun, it’s reasonable to expect Mr. Cuban and his Mavericks to anticipate a healthy bump in rights fees in the future assuming good counsel and creative structuring.How did these factors translate to the Kings and 76ers? Even with substantial MSA differences, they were at opposite ends of the media spectrum. The Kings’ deal with CSN California expires after this season, which put ownership in strong position to negotiate a new deal at the time of the transaction. The 76ers signed a 20 year contract in 2009 with Comcast Sports Net, which was reported by Forbes to be “undervalued” from the 76ers perspective, reportedly paying the team less than $12 million the season prior to purchase. That’s quite a difference and it almost surely played a pertinent role the Kings’ and 76ers’ valuations.Arena Lease and Structure: Slicing Up the Game Day PieIn the NBA, game day and arena revenue typically make up the lion’s share of a franchise’s income. These revenue streams filter up from a multitude of sources. Aside from regular ticket sales there are club seats, suites, naming rights, parking, concessions, merchandise, and sponsorship revenue. In addition there are non-game revenues such as concerts, events and meetings. On the expense side there’s rent (fixed or variable), revenue sharing (or a hybrid arrangement), capital expenditures, maintenance, overhead allocation and more. All of these aspects are negotiable among the business, municipal, and legal teams involved.Arena deal structures vary across the board. For example, the Detroit Pistons own The Palace at Auburn Hills while the Golden State Warriors are tenants at Oracle Arena (probably until 2017/2018 anyway). Most arena structures involve some form of public/private partnership. One common theme is public ownership, usually financed via local bonds, with the sports franchise as a tenant paying rent of some form. The chief aspect to consider for legal teams is how to structure agreements for the various revenue streams, expense and capital items.Historically, some of the most negotiated aspects to the arena lease are how proceeds from certain items as defined by the CBA are allocated. For example, while players as a group receive a flat percentage of basketball related income (“BRI”), they receive reduced percentages of others, such as luxury suites and arena naming rights. This nuance represents an opportunity for team ownership to retain a larger portion of these revenues and legal teams to employ shrewd negotiating tactics. In addition, as the arenas age and significant maintenance costs are required, cost sharing between the public/private partnerships can become an issue. Lease structure also can make outright ownership of a stadium appear less attractive without a partner to share or bear costs.Again as we examine the Kings and 76ers a contrasting picture emerges. Prior Kings’ ownership (the Maloofs) and the city could not reach an agreement on a new stadium lease after nearly a decade of negotiations. Initially there was a buying group that planned to move the team to Seattle, but then, new local ownership purchased the team (with substantial input from the NBA). This agreement included an agreement for a new $447 million stadium (the majority funded publicly) and a guarantee to keep the team in Sacramento. This new deal was reported to be more favorable to ownership and gives the franchise an opportunity to attract more fans and create refreshed revenue channels. The 76ers on the other hand had already been locked into a long term lease at less favorable terms that were more geared towards revenue sharing with Comcast. Again, the Kings’ new opportunity appears more attractive than the 76ers existing arrangement.Collective Bargaining Agreement: Leveling the Playing FieldOn December 8, 2011, after a 161 day lockout, the NBA and its player union reached a new collective bargaining agreement. This agreement brought about meaningful changes to the salary structures, luxury tax, BRI, and free agency (among other things). Although the CBA is not under direct control of a franchise owner, its impact on competiveness, team operational strategy and expense management is significant.The changes were important for owners, who had reportedly lost over $300 million annually as a group in the three prior years to the negotiations. From a valuation perspective three items deserve focus: (i) length, (ii) BRI, and (iii) luxury tax provisions. Prior to the agreement, there was a great deal of uncertainty as to how negotiations would play out. Uncertainty infers risk and where there’s more risk, values usually fall. The 10 year agreement (with a 2017 opt-out) brings stability to both players and owners as to what operating structure they can plan for the near to intermediate term future. In addition, BRI revenue splits to the players were lowered from 57% of BRI to around 50% for most of the contract. This split brings cash flow relief (but not competitive relief) to owners across the league. Lastly, the luxury tax structure became much more punitive for big-spending owners, like Cuban. In fact, it economically functions similarly to a hard salary cap that the NFL and NHL employ. In light of this change, NBA franchises have committed an enormous amount of time and resources to understand and execute an appropriate competitive strategy. The luxury tax provisions even the competitive playing field for smaller market teams such as Sacramento and the Memphis Grizzlies (who sold for a reported $377 million in October 2012) and constrains the spending of larger market teams such as the Mavericks, Lakers or Knicks.How did this facet play out with the Kings and 76ers? All one needs to know is that the 76ers were sold before the new CBA was agreed (Summer 2011) to and the Kings were sold after the CBA was in effect (January 2013). Timing, coupled with the Kings small market status, has an increasingly positive effect on them compared to the 76ers. Advantage: Kings.Takeaway: NBA Boats Don’t Necessarily Need the Tide to Rise (or Fall)NBA franchise values are on the rise. There is a buzz around the league that if there were teams on the market the price would be robust right now. The values are driven by a number of different factors (TV, arena rights, CBA), some that cannot be controlled by owners and their advisory teams, but others that can be. Don’t be fooled by market size. A value creation scenario can occur in almost any market. In one of the smallest markets in the country, Tom Benson paid more for the Hornets than Josh Harris’ group did for the 76ers. However, owner involvement, savvy counsel and careful negotiations are a must; because as some transactions have shown, there are no guarantees.This article was originally published in The Texas Lawbook in March 2014.
2015 Bank M&A Recap
2015 Bank M&A Recap
Statistics can be deceptive. The bank M&A market in 2015 could be described as steady, bereft of any blockbuster deals. According to SNL Financial 287 depositories (253 commercial banks and 34 thrifts) agreed to be acquired in 2015 compared to 304 in 2014 and 246 in 2013. Since 1990, the peak in M&A transactions occurred in 1994 (566) followed by 1998 (504). For those who do not remember, 1998 was the blockbuster year when NationsBank/Bank of America, Norwest/Wells Fargo, Bank One/First Chicago NBD and SunTrust Banks/Crestar Financial among others agreed to merge (Figure 1). There has been a cumulative impact of M&A activity over the years. As of September 30, 2015, there were 6,270 insured depositories compared to about 18,000 institutions in 1985 when interstate banking laws were liberalized. M&A activity when measured by the number of transactions obviously has declined; however, that is not true on a relative basis. Since 1990, the number of institutions that agreed to be acquired in non-assisted deals ranged between 1.4% (1990) and 4.6% (1998) with an overall median of 3.2%. Last year was an active year by this measure, with 4.4% of the industry absorbed, as was 2013 (4.5%). What accounts for the activity? The most important factors we see are (a) good asset quality; (b) currency strength for many publicly traded buyers; (c) very low borrowing costs; (d) excess capital among buyers; and (e) ongoing earnings pressure due to heightened regulatory costs and very low interest rates. Two of these factors were important during the 1990s. Asset quality dramatically improved following the 1990 recession while valuations of publicly traded banks trended higher through mid-1998 as M&A fever came to dominate investor psychology. Today the majority of M&A activity involves sellers with $100 million to $1 billion of assets. According to the FDIC non-current loans and ORE for this group declined to 1.20% of assets as of September 30 from 1.58% in 2014. The most active subset of publicly traded banks that constitute acquirers is “small cap” banks. The SNL Small Cap U.S. Bank Index rose 9.2% during 2015 and finished the year trading for 17x trailing 12 month earnings. By way of comparison, SNL’s Large Cap U.S. Bank Index declined 1.3% and traded for 12x earnings. Strong acquisition currencies and few(er) problem assets of would-be sellers are a potent combination for deal making. Earnings pressure due to both the low level of rates (vs. the shape of the yield curve) and post-crisis regulatory burdens are industry-wide issues. Small banks do not have any viable means to offset the pressure absent becoming an acquirer to gain efficiencies or elect to sell. Many chose the latter. The Fed may have nudged a few more boards to make the decision to sell by delaying the decision to raise short rates until December rather than June or September when the market expected it to do so. “Lift-off” and the attendant lift in NIMs may prove to be a non-starter if the Fed is on a path to a one-done rate hike cycle. As shown in Figure 2, pricing in terms of the average price/tangible book multiple increased nominally to 142% in 2015 from 139% in 2014. The more notable improvement occurred in 2014 when compared to 2013 and 2012, which is not surprising given the sharp drop in NPAs during 2011-2013. The median P/E multiple was 24x, down from 28x in 2014 and comparable to 23x in 2013. The lower P/E multiple reflected the somewhat better earnings of sellers in which pricing was reported with a median ROA of 0.65% compared to 0.55% in 2014. Although the data is somewhat murky, we believe acquirers typically pay on the order of 10-13x core earnings plus fully-phased-in, after-tax expense savings. Figure 3 provides perspective on pricing based upon size and profitability as measured by LTM ROE. Not surprisingly, larger and more profitable companies obtained better pricing in terms of the P/TBV ratio; however, as profitability increases the P/E multiple tends to decline. That is not surprising because a higher earning bank should have fewer issues that depress current earnings.The other notable development in 2015 was the return of non-SIFI large banks to the M&A market after largely being absent since the financial crisis as management and regulators sorted through the changes that the Dodd-Frank Act mandated. BB&T Corporation, which is among the very best acquirers, followed-up its 2014 acquisitions for Bank of Kentucky Financial Corp. and Susquehanna Bancshares with an agreement to acquire Pennsylvania-based National Penn Bancshares. The three transactions added about $30 billion of assets to an existing base of about $180 billion. Other notable deals included KeyCorp agreeing to acquire First Niagara ($39 billion) and Royal Bank of Canada agreeing to acquire City National Corporation ($32 billion). Also, M&T Bancorp was granted approval by the Federal Reserve to acquire Hudson City Bancorp ($44 billion) three years after announcing the transaction.To get a sense as to how the world has changed, consider that the ten largest transactions in 2015 accounted for $17 billion of the $26 billion of transaction value compared to $9 billion of $19 billion in 2014. The amounts are miniscule compared to 1998 when the ten largest transactions accounted for $254 billion of $289 billion of announced deals that year.Law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz (“Wachtell”) noted that with the approval of several large deals this year there is more certainty to the regulatory approval process and there is no policy to impede bank mergers x-the SIFI banks. A key threshold for would-be sellers and would-be buyers from a decision process has been $10 billion of assets (and $50 billion) given enhanced regulatory oversight and debit card interchange fee limitation that applies for institutions over $10 billion. Wachtell cited the threshold as an important consideration for National Penn’s board in its decision to sell to BB&T.There were a couple of other nuances to note. While not always true, publicly-traded buyers did not receive the same degree of “pop” in their share prices when a transaction was announced as was the case in 2012 and 2013. The pops were unusual because buyers’ share prices typically are flat to lower on the news of an announcement. Several years ago the market view was that buyers were acquiring “growth” in a no-growth environment and were likely acquiring banks whose asset quality problems would soon fade.Also, the rebound in real estate values and resumption of pronounced migration in the U.S. to warmer climates facilitated a pick-up in M&A activity in states such as Georgia (11 deals) and the perennial land of opportunity and periodic busts—Florida (21). The recovery in the banking sector in once troubled Illinois was reflected in 25 transactions followed by 20 in California.As 2016 gets underway, pronounced weakness in equity and corporate bond markets if sustained will cause deal activity to slow. Exchange ratios are hard to set when share prices are volatile, and boards of sellers have a hard time accepting a lower nominal price when the buyer’s shares have fallen. Debt financing that has been readily available may be tougher to obtain this year if the market remains unsettled.Whether selling or merging, we note for the surviving entity a key goal should be something akin to Figure 4 in which there is shared upside for both the acquirer’s and seller’s shareholders (assuming a merger structured as a share exchange). A well-structured and well-executed transaction can improve the pro forma bank’s profitability and growth prospects. If so, all shareholders may benefit not only from EPS accretion, but also multiple expansion. We at Mercer Capital have over 30 years of experience of working with banks to assess transactions, ranging from valuation to issuing fairness opinions in addition to helping assess the strategic position (e.g., sell now vs. sell later). Please call if we can help your institution evaluate a significant corporate transaction.
August Market Performance & Augustus Caesar
August Market Performance & Augustus Caesar
In contemplating August’s market activity, our thoughts drifted to Roman times. In 45 B.C., the Roman Senate honored Julius Caesar by placing his name on the month then known, somewhat drably, as Quintilis. Later, the Senate determined that Augustus Caesar deserved similar recognition, placing his name on the month after July. But this created an immediate issue in the pecking order of Roman rulers – up until then, months alternated between having 30 and 31 days. With July having 31 days, poor Augustus’ stature was diminished by placing his name on a month having only 30 days. To rectify this injustice, the Senate decreed that August also have 31 days, accomplished by borrowing a day from February and shifting other months such that September only had 30 days (to avoid having three consecutive 31-day months).We provide this historical interlude to illustrate that, while July and August now are equivalent in terms of the number of days, the market environment in these two months during 2015 bore few similarities. In August, volatility returned, commodity prices sank, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate action in September diminished.Most broad stock market indices declined between 6% and 7% in August, taking the indices generally to negative territory year-to-date in 2015. As indicated in Figure 1, except for the largest banks, publicly-traded banks generally outperformed the broader market, both year-to-date in 2015 and in August specifically. For the year, banks benefited from several factors. First, investors appear to expect that rising interest rates will, if not enhance banks’ earnings, at least prove to be a neutral factor. Other sectors of the market, though, may be less fortunate, as companies face higher interest payments or other adverse effects of higher interest rates. Second, banks generally reported steady growth in earnings per share, as assisted by a benign credit environment. Within any index, though, the performance of individual companies may vary greatly. Seeking to isolate factors influencing the August market performance, we focused on publicly-traded banks with assets between $500 million and $5 billion. Given the market backdrop, these 212 banks performed relatively well in August, with a median share price depreciation of only 1.1% (see Figure 2). For the year, the median bank reported a 2.9% increase in its stock price. While linking company-specific factors to market performance during a volatile period is difficult, we identified three groups of banks that underperformed in August: After losing investor favor in the second half of 2014, banks in the oil patch states of Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas performed well in 2015, advancing by 9% between December 31, 2014 and July 31, 2015. However, oil prices falling below $40/barrel dealt these banks a setback in August, as the median share prices of banks in these states fell by 5%.All the banks that completed IPOs during 2015 fell during August, with a median depreciation of 6%. Nevertheless, post-IPO performance remains favorable, as all the banks reported share prices at August 31, 2015 that exceeded their IPO prices by 10% to 20%. Investors in these banks may have wished to realize profits during a volatile period.Banks identified with Asian American communities also suffered, owing to their perceived greater exposure to slowing economies in China and throughout the Asian region. Even after the August decline, though, these banks have reported solid performance in 2015. Several risks that influenced August’s volatility have not dissipated, including uncertainty surrounding China’s opaque (and potentially over-leveraged) economy and the effect of any Fed policy tightening. Analyst estimates for 2016 EPS often suggest favorable growth over 2015, and such estimates bear watching to the extent that the recent market volatility spills over into the real economy.
Strategic Planning for Community Banks on the Mend
Strategic Planning for Community Banks on the Mend
Despite much commentary about the significant economic and regulatory headwinds impacting community banks, profitability is on the mend. Community bank earnings improved in the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2015 with net income up 14% to $17.6 billion compared to $15.5 billion in the twelve months ended June 30, 2014.1 Nearly 60% of community banks reported higher profitability based upon annualized first half 2015 net income compared to 2014 levels. The number of unprofitable banks also declined to 41 in the second quarter of 2015, compared to 109 in 2014 and 167 in 2013. The median return on assets (ROA) for community banks was up to 0.96% (annualized based upon the first half of 2015), which was the highest level since 2008.As detailed in Figure 1, key contributors to improving earnings were higher net interest income and lower loan loss provisions. Loan growth drove the improvement in net interest income as 84% of community banks reported loan growth in the trailing twelve month period, with the median community bank’s loan growth rate reported at 7.2%. Loan growth offset net interest margin (“NIM”) compression as NIMs were at their lowest level over the 10-year historical period. As the Federal Reserve’s zero-interest rate policy (“ZIRP”) grinds on, asset yields continue to compress while funding costs have essentially reached a floor. One interesting item to gauge in future quarters is how much interest rate and credit risk is being taken by community banks to grow loans and earnings. Another sign of improving community bank health is that deal activity is up from recent prior periods as shown in Figure 2. Price/earnings multiples have also improved in recent periods (Figure 3) and appear to be relatively in line with long-term trends at approximately 20x. Price/tangible book multiples are still below longer-term trends, largely reflecting that although improved from the Great Recession returns on assets and equity remain below pre-financial crisis levels. While it is difficult to tell whether community bank earnings have peaked and how long this cycle may last, improving profitability expands the strategic options available to community banks. A recent article by SNL Financial noted that a number of community banks are looking to sell as earnings may have plateaued. While selling is one option available to community banks in this environment, the range of strategic options available is much broader than that. A well-rounded strategic planning session should include an assessment of the bank’s unique strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities as well as a review of the bank’s performance and outlook relative to both its history and peers. Then, a broader discussion of a range of options that can deliver growth and enhance shareholder value should be discussed. Those other options could include organic and/or acquisitive growth and other ways to provide liquidity and enhance returns to shareholders such as special dividends, share repurchases, management buy-outs, and employee stock ownership plans. Founded in 1982, in the midst of and in response to a previous crisis affecting the financial services industry, Mercer Capital has witnessed the industry’s cycles. Despite industry cycles, Mercer Capital’s approach has remained the same – understanding key factors driving the industry, identifying the impact of industry trends on our clients, and delivering a reasoned and supported analysis in light of industry and client specific trends. Mercer Capital has experience facilitating strategic planning sessions for community banks and providing a broad range of specialized advisory services to the sector. Contact us to discuss scheduling a strategic planning session or your institution’s specific needs in confidence.
Small Bank Holding Companies: Regulatory Update & Key Considerations
Small Bank Holding Companies: Regulatory Update & Key Considerations
During 1980 the Federal Reserve issued the Small Bank Holding Company Policy Statement (“Policy Statement”), which recognized from a regulatory perspective that small bank holding companies have less access to the capital markets and equity financing than large bank holding companies. Although the Fed has sought to limit holding company debt so that the parent can serve as a “source of strength” to its subsidiaries, especially the deposit-taking bank subsidiaries, the Policy Statement allowed small bank holding companies to utilize more debt to finance acquisitions and other ownership transfer-related transactions than would be permitted by large bank holding companies. The Policy Statement initially applied to bank holding companies with assets less than $150 million; it was amended in 2006 to include bank holding companies with assets up to $500 million. Effective May 15, 2015, the threshold increased to consolidated assets of less than $1 billion for both bank holding companies and savings and loan holding companies, provided that the company complies with the Qualitative Requirements and does not:engage in significant nonbanking activities either directly or through a nonbank subsidiaryconduct significant off-balance sheet activities (including securitization and asset management or administration) either directly or indirectly through a nonbank subsidiaryhave a material amount of debt or equity securities outstanding (other than trust preferred securities) that are registered with the SEC Holding companies that meet the above requirements may use debt to finance up to 75% of the purchase price of an acquisition, but are subject to the following ongoing requirements:parent company debt must be retired within 25 years of being incurredparent company debt-to-equity must be reduced to 0.30:1 or less within 12 years of the debt being incurredthe holding company must ensure that each of its subsidiary insured depository institutions is well capitalizedthe company is expected to refrain from paying dividends until it reduces its debt-to-equity ratio to 1:1 or less The primary benefit of small bank holding company status is that it creates a larger universe of bank and now savings and loan holding companies that are not subject to the Federal Reserve’s risk-based capital and leverage rules, including the Basel III rules. As of year-end 2014, 454 bank holding companies with assets between $500 million and $1 billion filed a Y-9C according to SNL Financial LC. From a functional standpoint, small bank (and S&L) holding companies do not file a quarterly Y-9C or Y-9LP; instead these companies only file a Y-9SP semi-annually. Regulatory capital rules for these companies continue to apply to their bank subsidiaries, which represents no change from past practice.ImplicationsExpansion of Policy Statement eligibility is likely to affect strategic and capital planning for small BHCs.Companies that now fall under the Policy Statement oversight can use traditional debt at the holding company level and potentially generate higher returns on equity with a lower cost of capital. Senior debt may be used to replace existing capital such as SBLF preferred stock or fund stock repurchases or dividend distributions.Higher capital requirements for larger bank holding companies, coupled with relaxed capital regulations for small bank holding companies, may provide smaller companies an advantage when bidding on acquisition targets inasmuch as the ability to fund acquisitions with a greater proportion of debt results in a lower cost of capital.S corporation bank holding companies should remain particularly cognizant of the 1:1 debt/equity ratio constraint that should be maintained in order to declare dividends. For S corporations, the inability to declare dividends may result in shareholders being responsible for their pro rata share of the BHC’s taxable earnings with no offsetting distributions from the BHC. Since the debt/ equity ratio is calculated using equity determined under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, significant volatility in securities carried as available-for- sale may impair the BHC’s ability to declare dividends.If the subsidiary bank holds assets with more onerous risk weightings under the Basel III regime (such as mortgage servicing rights), the holding company may wish to evaluate whether holding such assets at the holding company, rather than the bank, may be more capital efficient. For more information or to discuss a valuation or transaction advisory issue in confidence, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Bridging Valuation Gaps for Undeveloped and Unproven Reserves
Bridging Valuation Gaps for Undeveloped and Unproven Reserves
The petroleum industry was one of the first major industries to widely adopt the discounted cash flow (DCF) method to value assets and projects—particularly oil and gas reserves. These techniques are generally accepted and understood in oil and gas circles to provide reasonable and accurate appraisals of hydrocarbon reserves. When market, operational, or geological uncertainties become challenging, however, such as in today's low price environment, the DCF can break down in light of marketplace realities and "gaps" in perceived values can appear.While DCF techniques are generally reliable for proven developed reserves (PDPs), they do not always capture the uncertainties and opportunities associated with the proven undeveloped reserves (PUDs) and particularly are not representative of the less certain upside of possible and probable (P2 &P3) categories. The DCF's use of present value mathematics deters investment at low ends of pricing cycles. The reality of the marketplace, however, is often not so clear; sometimes it can be downright murky.In the past, sophisticated acquirers accounted for PUDs upside and uncertainty by reducing expected returns from an industry weighted average cost of capital (WACC) or applying a judgmental reserve adjustments factor (RAF) to downward adjust reserves for risk. These techniques effectively increased the otherwise negative DCF value for an asset or project's upside associated with the PUDs and unproven reserves.At times, market conditions can require buyers and sellers to reconsider methods used to evaluate and price an asset differently than in the past. In our opinion, such a time currently exists in the pricing cycle of oil reserves, in particular to PUDs and unproven reserves. In light of oil’s low price environment, coupled with the forecasted future price deck, many—if not most—PUDs appear to have a negative DCF value.Distressed MarketsIn the past, we have analyzed actual market transactions to show that buyers still pay for PUDs and unproven reserves despite a DCF that results in little or no value. In today’s market, however, asset transactions of “non-core assets” indicate zero value for all categories of unproven reserves. A highlighted example of this is Samson Oil and Gas’s recent purchase of 41 net producing wells in the Williston Basin in North Dakota and Montana. The properties produce approximately 720 BOEPD and contain estimated reserves of 9.5 million barrels of oil equivalent. Samson paid $16.5 million for the properties in early January 2016 and estimates that within five years they can fund the drilling of PUDs. Samson’s adjusted reserve report, using the most current market commodity prices, indicated PDP reserves worth $15.5 million, PDNPs worth $1 million and PUDs worth $35 million—a total of $52 million in reserves present valued at 10%. This breakdown indicates dollar for dollar value was given on the PDP and PDNP reserves, but zero cash value given on the PUDs.Is this transaction the best indication of fair market value or fair value?We believe there is a convincing argument to be made that the Samson transaction and a handful of other asset deals in the previous six months are not the best indication of asset value. In short, these sales could be categorized as distressed or “fire sale” transactions for the following reasons:Significant decline and volatility in oil prices from (1) uncertain future demand and (2) current excess supply.Debt level pressures with (1) loan covenant requirements and (2) cash flow requirements.The low deal volume environment as market participants have been in a “wait and see” stance since oil prices began declining over twelve months ago. In this low price environment, buyers don’t have to blink first. These factors indicate that some companies may feel pressure to lower their asking prices to levels that continuously attract bidders. The market looks distressed. What does this mean for the fair market value/fair value of oil and gas assets? The definitions of fair market value and fair value require buyers and sellers to operate in a “distress-free” environment. When the marketplace is not distress-free, perhaps non-market methods should be utilized to estimate the real value of PUDs and unproven reserves. In these scenarios, one useful method to price these assets is the use of option theory.Option PricingIf one solely relied on the market approach, it appears much of these unproven reserves would be deemed worthless. Why then, and under what circumstances, might the unproven reserves have significant value?The answer lies within the optionality of a property's future DCF values. In particular, if the acquirer has a long time to drill, one of two forces come into play: either (1) the current price outlook can change radically for a resource, and subsequently alter the PUDs or (2) drilling technology can change, such as the onslaught of hydraulic fracturing, and the unproven reserves accrue significant DCF value.This optionality premium or valuation increment is typically most pronounced in unconventional resource play reserves, such as coal bed methane gas, heavy oil, or foreign reserves. This is additionally pronounced when the PUDs and unproven reserves are held by production. These types of reserves do not require investment within a fixed short timeframe.Current pricing environment: challenge = opportunityOne of the primary challenges for industry participants when valuing and pricing oil and gas reserves is addressing PUDs and unproven reserves. As oil prices have dropped over 50% in the last six months, reaching 12 year lows, it should be anticipated that PUD values may drop from 75 cents on the dollar to 20 cents on the dollar or less. After the Great Recession, some PUDs faced a similar, yet more modest, decline in price. The price level recovery for PUDs in 2011 was partly attributable to the recovery in the U.S. and global economies, and partly due to increases in the price of oil. Five main factors have significantly increased the world supply of oil and driven down prices: The continued success of shale drillers in the U.S.OPEC’s choice to continue to increase production.The U.S.’s elimination of restrictions on crude oil exports.The recent lifting of Iran’s sanctions.Oil consumption slowing down in countries like China. In August of 2015, it was estimated that Iran’s return to the global oil market would add approximately one million barrels of oil a day to the market and decrease the price of oil by $10 per barrel. Iran is currently ready to increase exports by half a million barrels of oil per day, and the fear of further over-supply pushed the price of oil below $30 on Friday, January 15. Now, the question is when will oil prices recover? The Chief of the IEA estimated that oil prices will recover in 2017. Prices are predicted to remain low in 2016 as expected demand for oil is growing at lower rates than in the past thanks to economic slowdowns in China, India, and Europe. However, the growth in oil supply is predicted to slow in 2017 as the current cuts in research and development catch up with many exploration and production companies. We must also remind ourselves of the crash in oil prices in 1985 that remained below $20 until 2003. As previously mentioned, PUDs are typically valued using the same DCF model as proven producing reserves after adding in an estimate for the capital costs (capital expenditures) to drill. Then the pricing level is adjusted for the incremental risk and the uncertainty of drilling “success,” i.e., commercial volumes, life and risk of excessive water volumes, etc. This incremental risk could be accounted for with either a higher discount rate in the DCF, a RAF or a haircut. Historically, in a similar oil price environment as we face today, a raw DCF would suggest little or no value for the PUDs or unproven reserves. Interestingly, market transactions with similar reserves (i.e., with little or no proven producing reserves) have demonstrated significant amounts attributable to non-producing reserves, thus demonstrating the marketplace's recognition of this optionality upside. Studies have shown that NYMEX futures are not a very accurate predictor of the future, and yet buyers are estimating the value of this option into the prices they are willing to pay. When NYMEX forecasts $35 per barrel, it could actually be $45 when that future date rolls around. So what actions do acquirers take when values are out of the money in terms of drilling economic wells? Why do acquirers still pay for the non-producing and seemingly unprofitable acreage? Experienced dealmakers realize that the NYMEX future projections amount to informed speculation by analysts and economists which many times vary widely from actual results. Note in the chart above how much the future forecasted prices changed in only one year. Real Options: Valuation FrameworkIn practice, undeveloped acreage ownership functions as an option for reserve owners; therefore, an option pricing model can be a realistic way to guide a prospective acquirer or valuation expert to the appropriate segment of market pricing for undeveloped acreage. This is especially true at the bottom of the historic pricing range occurring for the NG commodity currently.This technique is not a new concept as several papers have been written on this premise. Articles on this subject were written as far back as 1988 or perhaps further, and some have been presented at international seminars.The PUD and unproved valuation model is typically seen as an adaptation of the Black Scholes option model. An applicability signal for this method is when the owners of the PUDs have the opportunity, but not the requirement, to drill the PUD and unproven wells and the time periods are long, i.e. five to 10 years. The value of the PUDs thus includes both a DCF value, if applicable, plus the optionality of the upside driven by potentially higher future commodity prices and other factors. The comparative inputs, viewed as a real option, are shown in table below.Pitfalls and fine printThere are, of course, key differences in PUD optionality and stock options as well as limitations to the model. Amid its usefulness, the model can be challenging to implement. Below are some areas in particular where keen rigorous analysis can be critical:Observable market – Unlike a common stock, there is no direct observable market price for PUDs. The inherent value of a PUD is the present value of a series of cash flows or market pricing for proven reserves, if available. All commodity prices are volatile, but oil and gas prices are more volatile than most since they have both year-to-year supply and demand changes in addition to significant seasonal swings.Risk quantification – We have found that oil and gas price volatility benchmarks (such as long term index volatilities) are not all-encompassing risk proxies when valuing specific oil and gas assets. If not analyzed carefully, the model can sometimes have trouble capturing some critical production profile and geologic risks that could affect future cash flow streams considerably. Risks can include items such as (1) production profile assumptions; (2) acreage spacing; (3) localized pricing versus a benchmark (such as Henry Hub or West Texas Intermediate Crude); and (4) statistical “tail risk” in the assumed distribution of price movements.Sensitivity to capital expenditure assumptions – Underlying analysis of an asset or a project’s economics can present particular sensitivity to assumed capital expenditure costs. In assessing capital expenditure’s role as both (1) a cash flow input and (2) an option model input, estimations of future costs can be very acute, yet challenging, assumptions to properly measure.Time to expiration – This input can require granular analysis of field production life estimates coupled with expiring acreage, then filtered within the drilling plans of an operator. The resulting weighted time estimate can present problems with assumption certainty. The availability of drilling resources tends to decline while the costs of drilling and oilfield services tend to rise, often precipitously, when oil and gas prices rise. These factors can present an oscillating delta in both cost and timing uncertainties as the marketplace responds by investing capital into underdeveloped reserves while the fuse burns on existing lease rights. The time value of an option can increase significantly if (1) the mineral rights are owned; (2) unconventional resource play reserves are included; (3) there are foreign reserves; or (4) the reserves are held by production. In these instances, the PUD and unproved reserve option to drill can be deferred over many years, thereby extending the option.SummaryUtilization of modified option theory is not in the conventional vocabulary among many oil patch dealmakers, but the concept is clearly implicitly considered (as evidenced in many market transactions). This application of option modeling becomes most relevant near the bottom of historic cycles for a commodity. Here, the DCF will often yield little or no value even though transactions are being made for substantial values, thereby validating our belief that option theory is being utilized in the marketplace either directly or indirectly. If the right to drill can be postponed an extended period of time, i.e. five to ten years, the time value of those out of money drilling opportunities can have significant worth in the marketplace.We caution, however, that there are limitations in the model’s effectiveness. Black Sholes’ inputs do not always capture some of the inherent risks that must be considered in proper valuation efforts. Specific and careful applications of assumptions are musts. Nevertheless, option pricing can be a valuable tool if wielded with knowledge, skill, and good information, providing an additional lens to peer into a sometimes murky marketplace.Mercer Capital has significant experience valuing assets and companies in the energy industry, primarily oil and gas, bio fuels and other minerals. Contact a Mercer Capital professional today to discuss your valuation needs in confidence.
How to Combat the Margin Blues?
How to Combat the Margin Blues?
Following the Great Recession, significant attention has been focused on bank earnings and earning power. While community bank returns on equity (ROE) have improved since the depths of the recession, they are still below pre-recession levels. One factor squeezing revenue is falling net interest margins (i.e., the difference between rates earned on loans and securities, and rates paid to depositors). Community banks are more margin dependent than their larger brethren and have been impacted to a greater extent from this declining NIM trend. As detailed in Figure 1 below, NIMs for community banks (defined to be those with assets between $100 million and $5 billion) have steadily declined and were at their lowest point in the last ten years in early 2015. While there are a number of factors that impact NIMs, the primary culprit for the declining trend is the interest rate environment. As the Federal Reserve's zero-interest rate policy ("ZIRP") grinds on, earning asset yields continue to reprice lower while deposit costs reached a floor several quarters ago. Loan growth has also been challenging for many banks for a variety of reasons, which has stoked competitive pressures and negatively impacted lending margins. While competitive pressures can come in many forms, several data-points indicate intense loan competition giving way to easing terms. For example, the April 2015 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices noted continued easing on terms in a number of loan segments. This appears to be supported further by reported community bank loan yields, which have slid close to 200 basis points (in all loan segments analyzed) since 2008 as shown in Figure 2. Aside from paying tribute to the late B.B. King and playing "Everyday, everyday I have the blues," what can community bankers do in order to combat the margin blues? While not all-encompassing, below we have listed a few strategic options to consider: Increase Leverage. One strategic consideration to maintain ROE in light of declining NIMs may be to increase leverage subject to regulatory limits. Some potential ways to deploy available capital include growing loans organically, M&A, stock buybacks, and/or shareholder dividends. For those below $1 billion in assets, recent legislation has relaxed holding company capital requirements by exempting them from the consolidated regulatory capital ratios. For those that are capable, small bank holding companies may choose to upstream excess capital to the holding company from bank dividends or lever the holding company to fund special dividends and/or buybacks. This higher leverage strategy may be viewed as too aggressive by some shareholders and investors though.Consider M&A. An investor at a recent community bank conference noted that he would rather see banks sell than head down lending's slippery slope. This is not surprising to hear because competitive lending pressures usually seed tomorrow's problem assets. M&A represents a classic solution to revenue headwinds in a mature industry whereby less profitable smaller companies sell to the larger ones creating economies of scale and enhanced profitability. Some signs of this can be seen in recent periods as deal activity has picked up. Beyond expense synergies, acquirers may see temporary NIM relief resulting from accretion income on the acquired assets, which are marked to fair value at acquisition. For those community banks below $1 billion in assets, the combination of the relaxed capital requirements for their holding companies and more options for holding company debt may attract some to consider M&A as a strategic option.Acquire/Partner with Non-Financials. Another strategic option may be to expand into non-traditional bank business lines that are less capital intensive and offer prospects for non-interest income growth such as acquisitions or partnerships with insurance, wealth management, specialty finance, and/or financial technology companies. We have spoken on acquiring non-financials in different venues and there is some evidence of increased activity in the sector. For example, a recent article noted a growing trend in acquisitions of insurance brokers or agencies by banks and thrifts, with deal volume on pace to significantly exceed 2014. Another interesting example of this strategy being deployed includes the recent partnership announced between Lending Club and BancAlliance that allows over 200 community banks to access the peer-to-peer lending space.Improve Efficiency by Leveraging Financial Technology. While compliance and regulatory costs continue to rise as NIMs decline, the industry faces intense pressure to improve efficiency. Technology is an opportunity to do so as both commercial and consumer customers become more comfortable with mobile and online banking. Thus, many banks may view the margin blues as a catalyst to consolidate and/or modernize their branch network and/or invest in improved technology offerings to reduce longer-term operating costs and still meet or exceed customer expectations.Maintain Status Quo. Experience may lead bankers to wait on the Fed to act and usher a return to "normal" yields and "normal" NIMs. Banks with a healthy amount of variable rate loans and non-interest bearing deposits will see an immediate bump in revenue if short-term rates rise, while most traditional banks eventually will see a reversal in NIM trends. But as has been enumerated in past Bank Watch articles, rates have been expected to rise for a "considerable time," and yet continue to remain at historic lows.Further, the potential negative impact of rising rates on credit quality is difficult to foretell. Yet, even this status quo strategy may present some opportunities for those bankers to employ certain of the other strategies mentioned previously in small doses. Mercer Capital has a long history of working with banks and helping to solve complex problems ranging from valuation issues to considering different strategic options. If you would like to discuss your bank's unique situation in confidence and ways that your bank may consider addressing the margin blues, feel free to give us a call or email.
Using Employee Stock Ownership Plans: Helping Community Banks with Strategic Issues
Using Employee Stock Ownership Plans: Helping Community Banks with Strategic Issues
In our view, Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs) are an important omission in the current financial environment as a number of companies and banks lack a broader, strategic understanding of the possible roles of ESOPs as a tool to manage a variety of strategic issues facing community banks. Given the strategic challenges facing community banks, we strive to help our clients, as well as the broader industry, fill this gap, and discuss some common questions related to ESOPs in the following article.We will be glad to discuss your bank’s current situation as well as the role an ESOP can play in detail. If you are interested in learning more about ESOPs, read our book,The ESOP Handbook for Banks: Exploring an Alternative for Liquidity and Capital While Maintaining Independence (you can find it in the Products section of our website). In addition, if you would like to speak to a Mercer Capital professional, contact Jay Wilson at 901.685.2120 or wilsonj@mercercapital.com.For those less familiar with ESOPs, we answer a few basic questions related to ESOPs. For those more familiar with ESOPs, skip to the question entitled “How can an ESOP help the bank deal with strategic issues?”.What Is an ESOP and How Does It Work?ESOPs are a written, defined contribution retirement plan, designed to qualify for some tax-favored treatments under IRC Section 401(a). While similar to a more typical profit-sharing plan, the fundamental difference is that the ESOP must be primarily invested in the stock of the sponsoring company (only S or C corporations). ESOPs can acquire shares through employer contributions (either in cash or existing/newly issued shares) or by borrowing money to purchase stock (existing or newly issued) of the sponsoring company. Once holding shares, the ESOP obtains cash via sponsor contributions, borrowing money, or dividends/distributions on shares held by the ESOP. When an employee exits the plan, the sponsoring company must facilitate the repurchase of the shares, and the ESOP may use cash to purchase shares from the participant. Following repurchase, those shares are then reallocated among the remaining participants.What Are Some Tax Benefits Related to ESOPs?Similar to other profit-sharing plans, contributions (subject to certain limitations) to the ESOP are tax-deductible to the sponsoring company. The ESOP is treated as a single tax-exempt shareholder. This can be of particular benefit to S corporations, as the earnings attributable to the ESOP’s interest in the sponsoring company are untaxed. The tax liability related to ESOP planholder’s accounts is at the participant level and generally deferred similar to a 401(k) until employees take distributions from the plan.Who Can Sponsor an ESOP?Both publicly traded and private banks/holding companies (C or S-Corps.) can sponsor ESOPs, but the benefits are often more profound for private institutions that are not as actively traded, as the ESOP can promote a more active market and enhance liquidity more for the privately-held shares.How Can an ESOP Help The Bank Deal With Strategic Issues?While not suitable in all circumstances, an Employee Stock Ownership Plan may provide assistance in resolving a number of strategic issues facing community banks and can offer benefits to plan participants, existing shareholders, and the sponsor company, including:Augmenting capital, particularly for profitable institutions facing limited access to external capital. Though an ESOP strategy generally builds capital more slowly than a private placement alternative or a public offering, it provides certain tax advantages and may result in less dilution to existing shareholders. For additional perspective, consider the following example. Let us assume that the holding company has $5 million of debt or preferred stock (this example could also include TARP or SBLF funding) with a five year term and an interest rate of 5%. Assuming that the subsidiary bank is the holding company’s primary source of cash (which is often the case for most community banks), the typical option to service this holding company obligation would be dividends from the bank to the holding company. However, an ESOP is another option that might be worth considering as ESOP contributions are tax-deductible expenses and this allows the bank’s capital position to benefit. In the ESOP strategy, cash contributions received by the ESOP are used to purchase newly issued shares of the sponsor’s common stock (in this case, the holding company), providing liquidity that the bank holding company then uses to service holding company’s debt. As detailed in the table below, the ESOP strategy provides the necessary cash flow to the holding company for its obligations but results in approximately $2 million of added bank capital (approximately 35% of the cash needed to service the holding company obligation) at the end of the five-year period. This higher capital could be used in a variety of ways by the underlying bank, either to fund future earning asset growth organically or through acquisitions, pay additional distributions to the holding company for shareholder dividends, or as a cushion against adverse events such as credit losses. However, there is a trade-off to augmenting the bank’s capital using the ESOP strategy, as the holding company’s shares outstanding will increase thereby causing dilution to existing shareholders.Facilitating stock purchases and providing liquidity absent a sale of the bank to outsiders by creating an "internal" stock market whose transaction activity can promote confidence in stock pricing. The ESOP offers the further advantage of providing a vehicle to own shares that is “friendly” to the existing board of directors. For example, the ESOP can offer an alternative exit strategy beyond selling the bank to outside investors through an IPO or acquisition by providing a liquidity avenue that allows for ownership transition while maintaining independence. For C-corporations, the shareholder may even have the ability to sell his or her shares in a tax-free manner subject to certain limitations related to a Section 1042 rollover, including the ESOP owning 30% or more of each class of outstanding stock after the transaction and the seller reinvesting the proceeds into qualified replacement property from 3 to 12 months after the sale; and,Providing employee benefits and increasing long-term shareholder value. ESOPs provide a beneficial tool in rewarding employees at no direct cost to themselves by providing common stock and tying their reward to the long-term stock performance of the bank/company, which can serve to increase employee morale and shareholder value over time. For example, a recent study by Ernst & Young1 found that the total return for S Corporation ESOPs from 2002 to 2012 was a compound annual growth rate of 11.5% compared to the total return of the S&P 500 over the same period of 7.1%. The measure of S ESOP returns considers cumulative distributions as well as growth in value of net assets, net of those distributions (i.e., growth in underlying value per share).What Is the First Step for Those Considering an ESOP?For those considering implementing ESOPs, the first step is generally a feasibility study of what the ESOP would actually look like once implemented at your bank. Parts of the study would include determining the value of the company’s shares, the pro-forma implications from the potential transaction/installation, as well as what after-tax proceeds the seller might expect. This will help determine whether the bank should proceed, wait a few years to implement, or move to another strategic option. There are typically a number of parties involved in implementations including among others an appraiser/valuation provider, trustee, attorney or plan designer, and administrative committee.What Are Some Potential Drawbacks to ESOPs?ESOPs are subject to both tax and benefit law provisions (such as the ERISA act of 1974). Certain negatives associated with them can include:The costs of setting up and maintaining the plansThe repurchase obligation for the sponsoring company as employees retire or exit the planRegulatory issues with the Deportment of Labor serving as primary regulator and the IRS being able to review plan activitiesFiduciary roles associated with ESOP trusteesPotential complexities related to shareholder dilution from issuing new sharesAre There Any New Developments for ESOP Trustees to Consider?For existing ESOPs, two recent legal and regulatory developments have brought up important issues for trustees to consider as well.DudenhoefferIn 2014, the Supreme Court ruled on the case of Fifth Third Bancorp v. Dudenhoeffer, which involved a public company that matched employee contributions to a 401(k) plan by contributing employer stock to an ESOP that was part of the plan. The ruling states that the standard of prudence applicable to all ERISA fiduciaries also applies to ESOPs, though ESOP fiduciaries are not required to diversify the ESOP’s holdings. The Court ruling was focused on public company ESOPs, but its implications for private company ESOPs are unclear. However, trustees should consider ensuring an investment policy statement is in place for the ESOP, stating that the policy is to invest primarily in employer stock in accordance with the purpose of the Plan; and, if applicable, the policy statement could potentially clarify that employees have diversification options through other benefit plans such as a 401(k) plan.GreatBanc TrustScrutiny related to ESOPs, particularly as it relates to certain valuation issues, has increased in recent years, with the DOL bringing a number of cases against trustees and other parties. In the case of Perez, Secretary of the DOL v. GreatBanc Trust Company, there is a process agreement that we encourage ESOP companies and their trustees to review. While the process requirements are only specific to GreatBanc, the case has received a lot of attention in the ESOP community.In October 2012, The U.S. Department of Labor filed a lawsuit against GreatBanc Trust Co. and Sierra Aluminum Co. in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California. Among other issues identified in the suit, the DOL alleged that GreatBanc violated the Employee Retirement Income Security Act by breaching its fiduciary duties to the Sierra Aluminum Employee Stock Ownership Plan when it allowed the plan to pay more than fair market value for employer stock in June 2006. The suit also named the ESOP’s sponsor, Sierra Aluminum, as a defendant. The sponsor’s indemnification agreement with GreatBanc allegedly violated ERISA regulations. The suit focuses on the quality of the appraisal on which the trustee relied, particularly on the supportability of the assumptions used in the cash flow projection.As part of the settlement negotiations, the DOL and GreatBanc have agreed upon a specific set of policies and procedures as trustee of an ESOP. While specific to GreatBanc, the transaction procedures are presumed to be applicable to all Trustees and related appraiser relationships. The process requirements cover the following areas:Selection and Use of Valuation AdvisorOversight of Valuation AdvisorFinancial StatementsFiduciary Review ProcessPreservation of DocumentsFair Market ValueConsideration of Claw-BackOther ProfessionalsIn general, the process agreement makes clear that trustees must ensure that ESOP valuations are well documented with thoroughly supported assumptions.How Can Mercer Capital Help?Mercer Capital has been providing ESOP appraisal services for over 25 years and has extensive ESOP experience through providing annual valuations, installation advisory, feasibility studies, financial expert services related to legal disputes, and fairness opinions. Our appraisals are prepared in accordance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (“ERISA”), the Department of Labor, and the Internal Revenue Service guidelines, as well as Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (“USPAP”). We are active members of The ESOP Association and the National Center for Employee Ownership (NCEO). Our professionals have been frequent speakers on topics related to ESOP valuation throughout our 32-year history. Mercer Capital professionals also co-authored the publication, The ESOP Handbook for Banks (2011), which provides insight into key ESOP-related issues affecting banking organizations.For additional ESOP resources, view our whitepapers Insights on ESOPs and Choosing a New ESOP Appraiser.Endnote1 Contribution of S ESOPs to participants’ retirement security: Prepared for Employee-Owned S Corporations of America March 2015) Report can be accessed at: http://www.efesonline.org/LIBRARY/2015/EY_ESCA_S_ESOP_retirement_ security_analysis_2015.pdf.
Normalizing Adjustments to the Income Statement
Normalizing Adjustments to the Income Statement
Normalizing adjustments adjust the income statement of a private company to show the prospective purchaser the return from normal operations of the business and reveal a “public equivalent” income stream.
Fairness Opinions and Down Markets
Fairness Opinions and Down Markets
August has become the new October for markets in terms of increased volatility and downward pressure on equities and high yield credit. This year has seen similar volatility as was the case in some memorable years such as 1998 (Russian default; LTCM implosion), 2007 (tremors in credit markets), 2008 (earthquakes in credit and equity markets) and 2011 (European debt crisis; S&P’s downgrade of the U.S.). Declining commodity markets, exchange rate volatility and a pronounced widening of credit spreads finally began to reverberate in global equity markets this year.So far the downdraft in equities and widening high yield credit spreads has not slowed M&A activity. Preliminary data from Thomson Reuters for the third quarter indicates global M&A exceeded $1 trillion, which represents the third highest quarter on record and an increase of 11% over the year ago quarter. Activity is less broad-based though as 8,989 deals were announced compared to 10,614 a year ago.Immediately prior to intensified pressure on risk-assets, Thomson Reuters estimated that as of August 13 global M&A was on pace for a record year with $2.9 trillion of announced transactions globally (+40% vs. LYTD) and $1.4 trillion in the U.S. (+62%). Within the U.S., strategic buyer activity rose 53% to $1.1 trillion while PE M&A rose 101% to $326 billion.LBO multiples have been trending higher since 2009. The median LBO EBITDA multiple for broadly syndicated large deals was 10.1x through September, while middle market multiples expanded to 10.3x. Debt to EBITDA multiples for LBOs were 6.0x for large deals YTD and 5.5x for middle market transactions.No one knows what the future holds for markets. Deal activity could slow somewhat; however, a weak environment for organic revenue growth will keep many strategic buyers engaged, while lower prices for sellers if sustained will make more targets affordable for private equity provided debt financing costs do not rise too much. As of October 14, the option-adjusted-spread (OAS) on Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s High Yield Index was 6.31%, up from 5.04% at year-end and 4.83% a year ago.The role of the financial advisor becomes tougher too when markets are declining sharply. Obviously, sellers who do not have to sell may prefer to wait to see how market turmoil will play out while buyers may push to strike at a lower valuation. Questions of value and even fair dealing may be subjected to more scrutiny.Fairness opinions seek to answer the question whether a proposed transaction is fair to a company’s shareholders from a financial point of view. Process and especially value are at the core of the opinion. A fairness opinion does not predict where a security—e.g. an acquirer’s shares—may trade in the future. Nor does a fairness opinion approve or disapprove a board’s course of action. The opinion, backed by a rigorous valuation analysis and review of the process that led to the transaction, is just that: an opinion of fairness from a financial point of view. Nevertheless, declining markets in the context of negotiating and opining on a transaction will raise the question: How do current market conditions impact fairness?There is no short answer; however, the advisor’s role of reviewing the process, valuation, facts and circumstances of the transaction in a declining market should provide the board with confidence about its decision and the merits of the opinion. Some of the issues that may weigh on the decision process and the rendering of a fairness opinion in a falling market include the following:Process vs. Timing. Process can always be tricky in a transaction. A review of fair dealing procedures when markets have fallen sharply should be sensitive to actions that may favor a particular shareholder or other party. A management-led LBO after the market has fallen or a board that agrees to buyback a significant shareholder’s interest when prices were higher are examples. Even an auction of a company may be subject to second guessing if the auction occurred in a weak environment.Corporate Forecasts. Like the market, no one knows how the economy will perform over the next several years; however, consideration should be given to whether declining equity markets and widening credit spreads point to a coming economic slowdown. A baseline forecast that projects rising sales and earnings or even stable trends may be suspect if the target’s sales and earnings typically fall when the economy enters recession. A board should consider the implications of any sustained economic slowdown on the subject’s expected financial performance with follow-through implications for valuation.Valuation. Unless markets experience a sharp drop from a valuation level that reflects a widely held view that multiples were excessive, a sharp pullback in the market will cause uncertainty about what’s “fair” in terms of value. DCF valuations and guideline M&A transaction data may derive indications that are above what is obtainable in the current market. Transactions that were negotiated in mid-2007 and closed during 2008 may have felt wildly generous to the seller as conditions deteriorated. Likewise, deals negotiated in mid-2012 that closed in 2013 when markets were appreciating may have felt like sellers left money on the table. There is no right or wrong, only the perspective provided from the market’s “bloodless verdict” of obtaining a robust market check if a company or significant asset is being sold. It is up to the board to decide what course of action to take, which is something a fairness opinion does not address.Exchange Ratios. Acquisitions structured as share exchanges can be especially challenging when markets are falling. Sellers will tend to focus on a fixed price, while buyers will want to limit the number of shares to be issued. The exchange ratio can be (a) fixed when the agreement is signed; (b) fixed immediately prior to closing (usually based upon a 10 day volume-weighted average price of the buyer); or (c) a hybrid such as when the ratio floats based upon an agreed upon value for the seller provided the buyer’s shares remain within a specified band. Floating exchange ratios can be seen as straightjackets for buyers and lifejackets for sellers in falling markets; rising markets entail opposite viewpoints.Buyer’s Shares. An evaluation of the buyer’s shares in transactions that are structured as a share exchange is an important part of the fairness analysis. Like profitability, valuation of the buyer’s shares should be judged relative to its history and a peer group presently and relative to a peer group through time to examine how investors’ views of the shares may have evolved through market and profit cycles. The historical perspective can then be compared with the current down market to make inferences about relative performance and valuation that is or is not consistent with comparable periods from the past.Financing. If consummation of a transaction is dependent upon the buyer raising cash via selling shares or issuing debt, a sharp drop in the market may limit financing availability. If so, the board and the financial advisor will want to make sure the buyer has back-up financing lined-up from a bank. The absence of back-stop financing, no matter how remote, is an out-of-no-where potential that a board and an advisor should think through. Down markets make the highly unlikely possible if capital market conditions deteriorate unabated. While markets periodically become unhinged, a board entering into an agreement without a backstop plan may open itself to ill-informed deal making if events go awry. A market saw states that bull markets take the escalator up and bear markets take the elevator down. Maybe the August sell-off will be the pause that refreshes, leading to new highs, tighter credit spreads, and more M&A. Maybe the October rebound in equities (but not credit, so far) will fade and the downtrend will resume. It is unknowable. What is known is that boards that rely upon fairness opinions as one element of a decision process to evaluate a significant transaction are taking a step to create a safe harbor. Under U.S. case law, the concept of the "business judgment rule" presumes directors will make informed decisions that reflect good faith, care and loyalty to shareholders. The evaluation process is trickier when markets have or are falling sharply, but it is not unmanageable. We at Mercer Capital have extensive experience in valuing and evaluating the shares (and debt) of financial and non-financial service companies engaged in transactions during bull, bear and sideways markets garnered from over three decades of business.
An Introduction to Dividends and Dividend Policy for Private Companies
An Introduction to Dividends and Dividend Policy for Private Companies
Excerpted from Z. Christopher Mercer, FASA, CFA, ABAR,'s newest book, Unlocking Private Company Wealth. It is reprinted here with permission. The issue of dividends and dividend policy is of great significance to owners of closely held and family businesses and deserves considered attention. Fortunately, I had an early introduction to dividend policy beginning with a call from a client back in the 1980s. I had been valuing a family business, Plumley Rubber Company, founded by Mr. Harold Plumley, for a number of years. One day in the latter 1980s, Mr. Plumley called me and asked me to help him establish a formal dividend policy for his company, which was owned by himself and his four sons, all of whom worked in the business. Normally I do not divulge the names of clients, but my association with the Plumley family and Plumley Companies (its later name) was made public in 1996 when Michael Plumley, oldest son of the founder and then President of the company, spoke at the 1996 International Business Valuation Conference of the American Society of Appraisers held in Memphis, Tennessee. He told the story of Plumley Companies and was kind enough to share a portion of my involvement with them over nearly 20 years at that point. Let’s put dividends into perspective, beginning with a discussion of (net) earnings and (net) cash flow. These are two very important concepts for any discussion about dividends and dividend policy for closely held and family businesses. To simplify, I’ll often drop the (net) when discussion earnings and cash flow, but you will see that this little word is important.(Net) Earnings of a BusinessThe earnings of a business can be expressed by the simple equation:Earnings = Total Revenue – Total CostCosts include all the operating costs of a business, including taxes. C Corporations. If your corporation is a C corporation, it will pay taxes on its earnings and earnings will be net of taxes. The line on the income statement is that of net income, or the income remaining after all expenses, including taxes, both state and federal, have been paid. By the way, if your company is a C corporation, feel free to give me a call to start a conversation about this decision.S Corporations and LLCs. If your corporation is an S corporation or an LLC (limited liability company), the company will make a distribution so that its owners can pay their pass-through taxes on the income. To get to the equivalent point of net income on a C corporation’s income statement, it is necessary to go to the line called net income (but it is not) and to subtract the total amount of distributions paid to owners for them to pay the state and federal income taxes they owe on the company’s (i.e., their pass through) earnings. This amount would come from the cash flow statement or the statement of changes in retained earnings. Ignoring any differences in tax rates, the net income, after taxes (corporate or personal) should be about the same for C corporations and pass-through entities.(Net) Cash FlowCompanies have non-cash charges like depreciation and amortization related to fixed assets and intangible assets. They also have cash charges for things that don’t flow through the income statement. Capital expenditures for plant and equipment, buildings, computers and other fixed assets are netted against depreciation and amortization, and the result is either positive or negative in a given year. Capital expenditures tend to be "lumpy" while the related depreciation expenses are amortized over a period of years, often causing swings in the net of the two.There are other "expenses" and "income" of businesses that do not flow through the income statement. These investments, either positive or negative, relate to the working capital of a business. Working capital assets include inventories and accounts receivable, and working capital liabilities include accounts payable and other short-term obligations. Changes in working capital can lead to a range of outcomes for a business. Consider these two extremes that could occur regarding cash in a given year: Make lots of money but have no cash. Rapidly growing companies may find that while they have positive earnings, they have no cash left at the end of the month or year. They have to finance their rapid growth by leaving all or more than all of earnings in the business in the form of working capital to finance investments in accounts receivable and/or inventories and in the purchase of fixed assets to support that growth. Make little money, even have losses, and generate cash. Companies that experience sales declines may earn little, or even lose money on the income statement, and still generate lots of cash because they collect prior receivables or convert previously accumulated inventories into cash during the slowdown. Working capital on the balance sheet is the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Many companies have short-term lines of credit with which they finance working capital investments. The concept of working capital, then, may include changes in short-term debt. In addition, companies generate cash by borrowing funds on a longer-term basis, for example, to finance lumpy capital expenditures. In the course of a year, a company may be a net borrower of long-term debt or be in a position of paying down its long-term debt. So we’ll need to consider the net change in long-term debt if we want to understand what happens to cash in a business during a given year. We are developing a concept of (net) cash flow, which can be defined as follows in Figure 11.Most financial analysts and bankers will agree that this is a pretty good definition of Net Cash Flow.Net Cash Flow is the Source of Good ThingsWe focus on cash flow because it is the source of all good things that come from a business. The current year’s cash flow for a business is, for example, the source of:Long-term debt repayment. Paying debt is good. Bankers are extremely focused on cash flow, because they only want to lend long-term funds to businesses that have the expectation of sufficient cash flow to repay the debt, including principal and interest on the scheduled basis. Interest expense has already been paid when we look at net cash flow. Companies borrow on a long-term basis to finance a number of things like land, buildings and equipment, software and hardware, and many other productive assets that may be difficult to finance currently. They may also borrow on a long term basis to finance stock repurchases or special dividends.Reinvestment for future growth. Investment in a business is good if adequate returns are available. If a company generates positive cash flow in a given year, it is available to reinvest in the business to finance its future growth. Reinvested earnings are a critical source of investment capital for closely held and private companies Reinvesting with the expectation of future growth (in dividends and capital gains) is an important source of shareholder returns, but the return is deferred, at least in the form of cash, until a future date.Dividends or distributions. Corporate dividends are also good, particularly if you are a recipient. Cash flow is also the normal source for dividends (for C corporation owners) or what we call “economic distributions,” or distributions net of shareholder pass-through taxes (for S corporation and LLC owners).What is a Dividend?At its simplest, a dividend (or economic distribution) reflects the portion of earnings not reinvested in a business in a given year, but paid out to owners in the form of current returns.For some or many closely held and family businesses, effective dividends can include another component, and that is the amount of any discretionary expenses that likely would be “normalized” if they were to be sold. Discretionary expenses include: Above-market compensation for owner-managers. Owners of some private businesses who compensate themselves and/or family members at above-market rates should realize that the above-market portion of such compensation is an effective dividend.Mystery employees on the payroll. Some companies place non-working spouses, children or other relatives on the payroll when no work is required of them.Expenses associated with non-operating assets used for owners’ personal benefit. Non-operating assets can include company-owned vacation homes, aircraft not necessary for the operation of the business, vehicles operated by non-working family members, and others. It is essential to analyze above-market compensation and other discretionary expenses from owners’ viewpoints to ascertain the real rate of return that is obtained from investments in private businesses. In an earlier chapter, we touched on the concept of the rate of return on investment for a closely held business. Assuming that there were no realized capital gains from a business during a given year, the annual return (AR) is measured as follows:Now, we add to this any discretionary expenses that are above market or not normal operating expenses of the business that are taken out by owners:We now know what dividends are, and they include discretionary benefits that will likely be ceased and normalized into earnings in the event of a sale.We won’t focus on discretionary benefits in the continuing discussion of dividends and dividend policy. However, it is important for business owners to understand that, to the extent discretionary benefits exist, they reflect portions of their returns on investments in their businesses.In summary, dividends are current returns to the owners of a business. Dividends are normally residual payments to owners after all other necessary debt obligations have been paid and all desirable reinvestments in the business have been made.Dividends and Dividend Policy for Private CompaniesWith the above introduction to dividends for private companies, we can now talk about dividend policy. The remainder of this chapter focuses on seven critical things for consideration as you think about your company’s dividend policy.Every company has a dividend policy.Dividend policy influences return on business investment.Dividend policy is a starting point for portfolio diversification.Special dividends enhance personal liquidity and diversification.Dividend policy does matter for private companies.Dividend policy focuses management attention on financial performance.Boards of directors need to establish thoughtful dividend policies. We now focus on each of these seven factors you need to know about your company’s dividend policy.Every Company Has a Dividend PolicyLet’s begin with the obvious observation that your company has a dividend policy. It may not be a formal policy, but you have one. Every year, every company earns money (or not) and generates cash flow (or not). Assume for the moment that a company generates positive earnings as we defined the term above. If you think about it, there are only three things that can be done with the earnings of a business:Reinvest the earnings in the business, either in the form of working capital, plant and equipment, software and computers, and the like, or even excess or surplus assets.Pay down debt.Pay dividends to owners (or economic distributions – after pass-through taxes – for S corporations and LLCs) or repurchase stock (another form of returns to shareholders). That’s it. Those are all the choices. Every business will do one or more of these things with its earnings each year. If a business generates excess cash and reinvests in CDs, or accumulates other non-operating assets, it is reinvesting in the business, although likely not at an optimal rate of return on the reinvestment. Even if your business does not pay a dividend to you and your fellow owners, you have a dividend policy and your dividend payout ratio is 0% of earnings. On the other hand, if your business generates substantial cash flow and does not require significant reinvestment to grow, it may be possible to have a dividend policy of paying out 90% or even up to 100% of earnings in most years. This is often the case in non capital intensive service businesses. Recall that if a business pays discretionary benefits to its owners that are above market rates of compensation, or if it pays significant expenses that are personal to the owners, it is the economic equivalent of paying a dividend to owners. So when talking to business owners where such expenses are significant, we remind them that they are, indeed, paying dividends and should be aware of that fact. Some may think that discretionary expenses are the provenance of only small businesses; however, they exist in many businesses of substantial size, even into the hundreds of millions in value. Discretionary expenses are not necessarily bad, but they can create issues. In companies with more than one shareholder, discretionary expenses create the potential for (un)fairness issues. However, discretionary expenses are paid for the benefit of one shareholder or group of shareholders and not for others, they are still a return to some shareholders. Every company, including yours, has a dividend policy. Is it the right policy for your company and its owners?Dividend Policy Influences Return on Business InvestmentTo see the relationship between dividend policy and return on investment we can examine a couple of equations. This brief discussion is based on a lengthier discussion in my book, Business Valuation: An Integrated Theory Second Edition (John Wiley & Sons, 2007). There is a basic valuation equation, referred to as the Gordon Model. This model states that the price (P0) of a security is its expected dividend (D1) capitalized at its discount rate (R) minus its expected long term growth rate in the dividend (Gd). This model is expressed as follows:D1 is equal to Earnings times the portion of earnings paid out, or the dividend payout ratio (DPO), so we can rewrite the basic equation as follows:What this equation says is that the more that a company pays out in dividends, the less rapidly it will be able to grow, because Gd, or the growth rate in the dividend, is actually the expected growth rate of earnings based on the relevant dividend policy.We can look at this simplistically in word equations as follows:Dividend Income + Capital Gains = Total ReturnDividend Yield + Growth (Appreciation) = Cost of Equity (or the discount rate, R)These equations reflect basic corporate finance principles that pertain, not only to public companies, but to private businesses as well. There is an important assumption in all of the above equations – cash flow not paid out in dividends is reinvested in the business at its discount rate, R.There are many examples of successful private companies that do not pay dividends, even in the face of unfavorable reinvestment opportunities. To the extent that dividends are not paid and earnings are reinvested in low-yielding assets, the accumulation of excess assets will tend to dampen the return on equity and investment returns for all shareholders.Further, the accumulation of excess assets dampens the relative valuation of companies, because return on equity (ROE) is an important driver of value. For example, consider the following relationship without proof:ROE x Price/Earnings Multiple = Price/Book ValueAt a given multiple of (net) earnings available in the marketplace, a company’s ROE will determine its price/book value multiple. The price/book value multiple tells how valuable a company is in relationship to its book value, or the depreciated cost value of its shareholders’ investments in the business.Let’s consider a simple example. Assume that a company generates an ROE of 10% and that the relevant market price/earnings multiple (P/E) is 10x. Using the formula above:In this example, the company would be valued at its book value and the shareholders would not benefit from any “goodwill,” or value in excess of book value. Consider, however, that a similar company earns an ROE of 15%.Assuming the same P/E of 10x, it would be valued at 150% of its book value.Suppose the second company, because of its superior returns, received a P/E of 11x. In that case the price/book multiple would be 165%. To the extent that a company’s dividend policy influences its ongoing ROE, it influences its relative value in the marketplace and the ongoing returns its shareholders receive. In short, your dividend policy influences your return on investment in your business, as well as your current returns from that investment.Dividend Policy is a Starting Point for Portfolio DiversificationRecall the story of my being asked to help develop a dividend policy for a private company. The company had grown rapidly for a number of years and its growth and diversification opportunities in the auto parts supply business were not as attractive as they had been. The CEO, who was the majority shareholder, realized this and also that his sons (his fellow shareholders) could benefit from a current return on their investments in the company, which, collectively, were significant.We reviewed the dividend policies of all of the public companies that we believed to be reasonably comparable to the company. I don’t recall the exact numbers now, but I believe that the average dividend yield for the public companies was in the range of 3%. As I analyzed the private company, it was clear that it was still growing somewhat faster than the publics, so the ultimate recommendation for a dividend was about 1.5% of value.The value that the 1.5% dividend yield was compared to was the independent appraisal that we prepared each year. Based on the value at the time, I recall that the annual dividend began at something on the order of $300,000 per year. But, for the father and the sons, it was a beginning point for diversification of their portfolios away from total concentration in their successful private business.Your dividend policy can be the starting point for wealth diversification, or it can enhance the diversification process if it is already underway.Special Dividends Enhance Personal Liquidity and DiversificationA number of years ago, I was an adviser to a publicly traded bank holding company. Because of past anemic dividends, this bank had accumulated several million dollars of excess capital. The stock was very thinly traded and the market price was quite low, reflecting a very low ROE (remember the discussion above).Because of the very thin market for shares, a stock repurchase program was not considered workable. After some analysis, I recommended that the board of directors approve a large, one-time special dividend. At the same time I suggested they approve a small increase in the ongoing quarterly dividend. Both of these recommendations provided shareholders with liquidity and the opportunity to diversify their holdings.Since the board of directors collectively held a large portion of the stock, the discussion of liquidity and diversification opportunities while maintaining their relative ownership position in the bank was attractive.At the final board meeting before the transaction, one of the directors did a little bit of math. He noted that if they paid out a large special dividend, the bank would lose earnings on those millions and earnings would decline. I agreed with his math, but pointed out (calculations already in the board package) that the assets being liquidated were very low in yield and that earnings (and earnings per share) would not decline much. With equity being reduced by a larger percentage, the bank’s ROE should increase. So that increase in ROE, given a steady P/E multiple in the marketplace, should increase the bank’s Price/Book Value multiple.The director put me on the spot. He asked point blank: "What will happen to the stock price?" I told him that I didn’t know for sure (does one ever?) but that it should increase somewhat and, if the markets believed that they would operate similarly in the future, it could increase a good bit. The stock price increased more than 20% following the special dividend.Special dividends, to the extent that your company has excess assets, can enhance personal liquidity and diversification. They can also help increase ongoing shareholder returns. I have always been against retaining significant excess assets on company balance sheets because of their negative effect on shareholder returns and their adverse psychological impact. It is too easy for management to get "comfortable" with a bloated balance sheet. If your business has excess assets, consider paying a special dividend. Your shareholders will appreciate it.Dividend Policy Does Matter for Private CompaniesSomeone once said that earnings are a matter of opinion, but dividends are a matter of fact. What we know is that when dividends are paid, the owners of companies enjoy their benefit, pay their taxes, and make individual choices regarding their reinvestment or consumption.The total return from an investment in a business equals its dividend yield plus appreciation (assuming no capital gains), relative to beginning value. However, unlike unrealized appreciation, returns from dividends are current and bankable. They reduce the uncertainty of achieving returns. Further, if a company’s growth has slowed because of relatively few good reinvestment opportunities, a healthy dividend policy can help assure continuing favorable returns overall.Based on many years of working with closely held businesses, we have observed that companies that do not pay dividends and, instead, accumulate excess assets, tend to have lower returns over time. There is, however, a more insidious issue. The management of companies that maintain lots of excess assets may tend to get lazy-minded. Worse, however, is the opposite tendency. With lots of cash on hand, it is too easy to feel pressure to make a large and perhaps unwise investment, e.g., an acquisition, that will not only consume the excess cash but detract from returns in the remainder of the business.Dividend policy is the throttle by which well-run companies gauge their speed of reinvestment. If investment opportunities abound, then a no- or low-dividend payout may be appropriate. However, if reinvestment opportunities are slim, then a heavy dividend payout may be entirely appropriate.Any way you cut it, dividend policy does matter for private companies.Dividend Policy Focuses Management Attention on Financial PerformanceBoards of directors are generally cautious with dividends and once regular dividends are being paid, are reluctant to cut them. The need, based on declared policy, to pay out, say, 35% of earnings in the form of shareholder dividends (example only) will focus management’s attention on generating sufficient earnings and cash flow each year to pay the dividend and to make necessary reinvestments in the business to keep it growing. No management (even if it is you) wants to have to tell a board of directors (even if you are on it) or shareholder group that the dividend may need to be reduced or eliminated because of poor financial performance.Boards of Directors Need to Establish Thoughtful Dividend PoliciesIf dividend policy is the throttle with which to manage cash flow not needed for reinvestment in a business, it makes sense to handle that throttle carefully and thoughtfully. Returns to shareholders can come in the form of dividends or in the form of share repurchases.While a share repurchase is not a cash dividend, it does provide cash to selling shareholders and offsetting benefits to remaining shareholders. Chapter 10 of the book (Leveraged Share Repurchase: An Illustrative Example) provides an example of a substantial leveraged share repurchase from a controlling shareholder to provide liquidity and diversification.From a theoretical and practical standpoint, the primary reason to withhold available dividends today is to reinvest to be able to provide larger future dividends – and larger in present value terms today. It is not a good dividend policy to withhold dividends for reasons like the following:A patriarch withholds dividends to prevent the second (or third or more) generations from being able to have access to funds.A control group chooses to defer dividends to avoid making distributions to certain minority shareholders.Dividends are not paid because management (and the board) want to build a large nest egg against possible future adversities.Dividends are not paid to accumulate excess or non-operating assets on the balance sheet for personal or vanity reasons.Dividend policy is important and your board of directors needs to establish a thoughtful dividend policy for your business.ConclusionDividends and dividend policies are important for the owners of closely held and family businesses. Dividends can provide a source of liquidity and diversification for owners of private companies. Dividend policy can also have an impact on the way that management focuses on financial performance.To discuss corporate valuation or transaction advisory issues in confidence, please contact us.
New York’s Largest Corporate Dissolution Case: AriZona Iced Tea
New York’s Largest Corporate Dissolution Case: AriZona Iced Tea
After several years of litigation involving a number of hearings and trials on various issues, a trial to conclude the collective fair value of a group of related companies known as the AriZona Entities (also referred to as "AriZona" or "the Company"), occurred. The trial was held in the Supreme Court, State of New York, Nassau County, New York, the Hon. Timothy Driscoll, presiding. The trial lasted from May 22, 2014 until July 2, 2014.1The Court's decision in what I will refer to as "the AriZona matter" (or "the matter") was filed on October 14, 2014. I have not previously written about the AriZona matter because I was a business valuation expert witness on behalf of one side.2  I was asked not to publish anything while the matter was still pending. The parties recently closed a private settlement of the matter, so there will be no appeal.There are numerous quotes from the Court's decision in Ferolitov.Vultaggio throughout this article. However, in an informal article of this type, I will not cite specific pages for simplicity and ease of reading.Background about the CaseThe overall litigation had numerous complexities; however, the valuation and related issues were ultimately fairly straightforward. The Court had to determine the fair value, under New York law, of a combined 50% interest in the AriZona Entities as of two valuation dates. The first date, October 5, 2010, pertained to a portion of the 50% block, and the remainder of the block was to be valued as of January 31, 2010.The Court's decision focused on the first valuation date, or October 5, 2010, and we will do the same in this analysis of the case.The case citation in the footnote below provides the names for all plaintiffs and defendants in the matter. For purposes of this discussion, we simplify the naming of the "sides" in the litigation, following the Court's convention.The group of plaintiffs, led by John Ferolito, is referred to as "Ferolito" herein. I worked on behalf of Ferolito. Similarly, the group of defendants, led by Dominick Vultaggio, is referred to as "Vultaggio." Expert witnesses for Ferolito included Z. Christopher Mercer (Mercer Capital), Basil Imburgia (FTI Consulting), Dr. David Tabak (NERA Economic Consulting), Christopher Stradling (Lincoln International), and Michael Bellas (Beverage Marketing Corporation). Mercer was the primary business valuation expert. Imburgia testified on developing adjusted earnings for AriZona. Stradling, an investment banker, also testified regarding the value of AriZona. Finally, Bellas testified regarding the revenue forecast he developed for AriZona and that was employed by Mercer in the discounted cash flow method. Expert witnesses for Vultaggio included Professor Richard S. Ruback (Harvard Business School and Charles River Associates), who was the primary valuation expert, and Dr. Shannon P. Pratt (Shannon Pratt Valuations). Pratt testified on the topic of the discount for lack of marketability but did not offer an independent valuation opinion. Other experts worked on behalf of Vultaggio, but their opinions received little treatment in the Court's decision.Background about the AriZona EntitiesThe AriZona Entities market beverages (principally ready-to-drink iced teas, lemonade-tea blends, and assorted fruit juices) under the AriZona Iced Tea and other brand names. At the valuation dates, the Company sold product through multiple channels, including convenience stores, grocery stores, and other retailers, primarily in the United States. International sales comprised about 9% of total sales.The Company was founded in 1992 by Vultaggio and Ferolito, who each owned 50% of the stock at that time. It grew rapidly to the range of $200 million in sales and significant profitability and remained at that level until 2002, at which time sales began to rise rapidly and consistently, reaching about $1 billion in 2010.Normalized EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), as determined by Basil Imburgia on behalf of Ferolito, was $181 million for the trailing twelve months ending September 2010, which the Court accepted. While the text of the decision states that Imburgio's EBITDA for that time period was $173 million and a table shows it as $169 million, Imburgio's concluded EBITDA was, indeed, $181 million, which the Court accepted and Mercer accepted, as well.Ruback's estimate of EBITDA for calendar 2010 was $168 million. There was no disagreement over the recent strong earnings of AriZona.AriZona was, at the valuation dates, an attractive, profitable and growing company that was gaining market share in the ready-to-drink (RTD) tea industry. It was the only private company in the $1 billion sales range in the non-alcoholic beverage industry in the United States. In the years and months leading to the valuation date, several very large companies, including Coca-Cola, Tata Tea, and Nestle Waters, held discussions with either Vultaggio and the Company, Ferolito, or both, regarding the potential acquisition of either the Company or the 50% Ferolito interest.The Level of Value for Fair ValueCounsel for Ferolito interpreted fair value in New York as being at the strategic control level based on the following case law guidance:"[I]n fixing fair value, courts should determine the minority shareholder's proportionate interest in the going concern value of the corporation as a whole, that is, 'what a willing purchaser, in an arm's length transaction, would offer for the corporation as an operating business.'" 3Mercer provided a conclusion of fair value at the strategic control level of $3.2 billion, which included the consideration of the sharing of certain expected operating synergies with hypothetical buyers. Stradling offered a conclusion of strategic control value in the range of $3.0 billion to $3.6 billion.The Court did not consider that strategic value was appropriate for its determination of fair value. After citing several cases, including Friedman v. Beway Realty Corp. ("Beway"), the Court concluded:4These principles make clear that the Court may not consider AriZona's "strategic" or "synergistic" value to a hypothetical third-party purchaser, as Ferolito urges. A valuation that incorporates such a "strategic" or "synergistic" element would not rely on actual facts that relate to AriZona as an operating business, but rather would force the Court to speculate about the future.Interestingly, the Court did not quote the language from Beway noted just above. What would a willing purchaser like Tata Tea, Coca-Cola, or Nestle Waters pay for AriZona? Whatever price these "willing purchaser[s], in an arm's length transaction" would offer would certainly include consideration of potential synergies. I do not say this to argue with the Court's conclusion, but to point out that the conclusion is not reconciled with the plain language of Beway.The Court concluded that it would value the Company using the "financial control" measurement (as described by Mercer in the Mercer Report and in testimony at trial). However, that decision did force the Court to "speculate about the future" because the Court's conclusion, which was based on Mercer's discounted cash flow (DCF) method, employed a ten year forecast of revenues and expenses.In anticipation of the Court's decision regarding strategic control value, Mercer also provided conclusions of fair value at the financial control level. These values were $2.4 billion as of October 5, 2010 and $2.3 billion as of January 31, 2011.The Ruback Report offered a standard of value that can be described as "business as usual." 5It is my understanding that, under New York law, the fair value of shares of Arizona Iced Tea values the company as a going concern operated by its current management with its usual business practices and policies.No case law guidance was offered by Ruback for this "business as usual" standard, which included management's inability or unwillingness ever to raise product prices.The Ruback Report's conclusion of fair value for 100% of AriZona's equity was $426 million. The concluded enterprise value is well below 3x EBITDA.In its decision, the Court concluded that consideration of expected synergies was speculative and did not consider Mercer's conclusions at the strategic control level of value. The Court focused instead on Mercer's financial control valuations. The Court rejected the "business as usual" standard offered in the Ruback Report.The Court Focuses on Discounted Cash FlowThe Ruback Report took the position that the discounted cash flow method was the appropriate method for the determination of the fair value of AriZona.Mercer applied a weighting of 80% to the DCF method. But Mercer and Stradling considered the use of guideline public companies and guideline transactions, as well. Mercer accorded the guideline public company indications with the remaining weight of 20%. Because of the substantial weight placed on the DCF method by Mercer, the difference in position was relatively minor.The issue for the Court was one of comparability. Obviously, I thought the use of guideline public companies was relevant, and that the selected group of public companies was sufficiently comparable to provide solid valuation evidence at the financial control level. Nevertheless, the Court disagreed and focused solely on the discounted cash flow valuation.The Court's Determination of Fair ValueHaving determined that the focus would be on the discounted cash flow method, the Court looked at the key components of the DCF methods employed by Mercer and Ruback. As noted, the Court's starting point was the discounted cash flow analysis from the October 5, 2010 DCF method from the Mercer Report.After concluding that Mercer's DCF method was the starting point for analysis, the Court developed a very logical examination of the key components of the DCF analysis, providing sections reaching conclusions on the following assumptions:RevenueCostsTerminal ValueTax Amortization BenefitTax Rate"Key Man" DiscountDiscount RateOutstanding Cash, Non-Operating Assets, and DebtDiscount for Lack of Marketability In the following sections, we address each of these assumptions, although I have reordered them to facilitate the discussion. The starting point is the DCF conclusion already includes one assumption made by the Court. In disregarding Mercer's guideline public company method and its somewhat lower indicated value, the starting point for the Court's analysis was increased by $79.2 million, or from $2.36 billion to $2.44 billion.1. Anticipated RevenueThe Bellas Report provided a ten year forecast of expected future revenues for AriZona. He forecasted domestic revenues and provided a separate forecast for expected future international sales assuming a conscious effort on the part of the Company to focus on international sales, which comprised some 9% of revenues at the valuation date. The Court wrote:6Based on the depth and breadth of Bellas' experience, the significant research regarding the trends in the RTD industry and AriZona in particular, and his demeanor throughout this testimony, the Court credits Bellas' testimony in its entirety regarding AriZona's future revenues.The Court provided a review of the Bellas Report's analysis and my adoption of the analysis, concluding as follows:7Upon relying on Bellas' projections for AriZona's domestic and international prospects, Mercer projected AriZona's revenue to grow a compounded annual growth ("CAGR") rate of 10.2%, which is consistent (and may well be conservative when compared to) AriZona's CAGR from 2006-10 of 13.9%. The Court thus adopts Mercer's revenue projections. In so doing, the Court notes Mercer's impressive expertise in the field of business valuation, including (a) completing some 400 business valuation per year [that's 400 for Mercer Capital, not Mercer], including a significant number of valuations exceeding $1 billion, (b) extensive business appraisal credentials, and (c) publication of over 80 articles regarding different valuation issues. By contrast, Ruback's experience in business valuation is almost entirely academic in nature.In the final analysis, the Court adopted the revenue projection of the Bellas Report which, in turn, was reviewed, analyzed and accepted for the Mercer Report.8 Revenues were forecasted to increase about 7.7%, rising from the last twelve months in September 2010 of $958 million to $2.0 billion in 2020.Although the Bellas revenue forecast adopted by Mercer was deemed aggressive by the Vultaggio side, AriZona's revenues were forecasted to reach $2.2 billion by 2020 in the Ruback Report.2. Operating CostsThe Court observed that in the past, AriZona had been able to manage costs. The Court was presented information regarding historical cost of goods sold, operating expenses, and resulting EBITDA, both in dollar terms and in terms of the resulting historical EBITDA margins.The Court noted that Mercer used past costs as a basis to forecast future costs. The Ruback Report assumed that future costs would rise faster than revenue, with resulting pressure on profit margins.To make the point about the unreasonableness of the Ruback Report's cost assumptions, the Court quoted a portion of my trial testimony:9[Ruback] utilizes a business plan that I don't believe has any bearing in history or any bearing in any evidence I have seen. He conducts – he assumes a business plan that basically assumes that Mr. Vultaggio and the management at AriZona are incompetent and [in]capable of adapting to evolving business conditions.The Ruback Report made two critical assumptions that resulted in an unrealistic and unreasonable forecast of costs and the resulting impact on forecasted EBITDA and EBITDA margins. First, costs were projected to increase with expected inflation. Second, all prices were held constant over the entire projection period. The result was a precipitous drop in the forecasted EBITDA margin. A picture is helpful.The chart below provides historical EBITDA margins and the forecasted margins employed in the Mercer Report (green) and the Ruback Report (red). In the final analysis, the Court credited Mercer's testimony regarding AriZona's anticipated costs. In so doing, having already adopted its revenue forecast, the Court adopted the Mercer Report’s forecasted income for the ten year forecast period employed in that report. 3. Tax Rate AssumptionThe Court did not, however, entirely adopt the forecasted net income and net cash flow of the Mercer Report. For some reason, the Court selected tax rates from the Ruback Report, which were the sum of the marginal personal rate and the marginal state rates, presumably because of AriZona's S corporation status.The Ruback Report assumed a personal marginal tax rate of 35%, an average state income tax rate of 4.5%, and a corporate tax rate of 4% for AriZona itself. These were added together, not accounting for the deductibility of state taxes for federal income tax purposes, and a tax rate of 43.5% was posited for the forecast.The Court correctly noted that there was no explanation of the use of the blended federal/tax rate in the Mercer Report. I can only say that the usual table that illustrates the calculation of the blended federal and state tax rate was missing from the relevant valuation exhibits. Nevertheless, the investment bankers who provided testimony also provided blended federal/state rates similar to the 38% used in the Mercer Report. I did not have an opportunity to address this issue, either on direct or cross-examination during trial testimony.It is fairly standard to begin the valuation of an S corporation on as "as if" C corporation basis. Then, if there are benefits that are additive to value for the S corporation, they can be considered separately. I valued AriZona on an "as if" C corporation basis and then separately considered the tax amortization benefit as being accretive to value for the Company.Pratt, who testified for Vultaggio, agrees with this, as was pointed out in Part I of the Gilbert Matthews article series cited in endnote 2.It is important to recognize that both C corps and S corps pay taxes on corporate income. Whether that tax is actually paid by the corporation or the individual is absolutely irrelevant. What is relevant is the difference between the value of a company valued as a C corporation…and [as] an S corporation. It is for this reason that most S corporation models begin by valuing the company "as if" a C corporation… and then go on to recognize the benefits of the Sub-chapter S election.10All parties, including Stradling and the other investment bankers who provided opinions or whose work was introduced into evidence (except Professor Ruback) valued AriZona, which was an S corporation, as if it were a C corporation, because the likely buyers of the Company were publicly traded C corporations.There has been an ongoing debate in the valuation profession regarding whether there should be a valuation premium accorded to an S corporation like AriZona relative to a similar C corporation. I have written and testified that an S corporation is worth no more than an otherwise identical C corporation. However, it is hard to find otherwise identical corporations for comparison.What I have written is that there is no inherent increase (or decrease) in the value of enterprise cash flows whether their corporate wrapper is an S corporation or a C corporation. There are lots of things that can change the proceeds of a sale to a seller between the two types of corporations, including:An S corporation that retains earnings enables its owners to build basis in their shares, thus sheltering future capital gains taxes. The basis of ownership in C corporations remains at cost until the shares are sold.An S corporation's assets can be sold, enabling the buyers to write up assets for future depreciation or amortization. This write-up and subsequent amortization provides a tax amortization benefit that can enable buyers to pay more for an S corporation. See the next section. In the alternative, the parties can elect a Section 338(h)(10) Election, which provides substantially the same effect as a purchase of assets.A C corporation may have embedded capital gains on assets that would be realized upon a sale of assets. By raising the tax rate above the expected tax rates of likely buyers, the Court effectively lowered the DCF value in the Mercer Report by $196 million, or about 8%. This is simply an incorrect treatment, in my opinion from economic or financial viewpoints. It is my understanding that the Court later requested additional information on the issue of appropriate tax rates for the valuation of an S corporation like AriZona. No one knows if a change might have been made because the matter has settled.4. Tax Amortization BenefitThe Court did not agree with the consideration of a tax amortization benefit in the Mercer Report. The tax amortization benefit was calculated on the assumption that, in a hypothetical sale of AriZona as an S corporation (assumed to be structured as an asset sale), the write-up of intangible assets over the minimal tangible assets on the balance sheet would give rise to a tax amortization benefit to the buyer. The present value of this benefit was calculated over the 15 year amortization period allowed under then current tax law.On cross-examination, I noted that I had not used such a benefit before in valuing an S corporation. However, I did note that this benefit had been a point of negotiation between the AriZona parties and Nestle Waters, and was included in valuation calculations leading to a $2.9 billion offer (that was not finalized) in the months leading up to the valuation date.I also noted that while this synergy had been provided to the seller in the financial control valuation, all other potential synergies, including those from operating expenses or enhanced revenues or lower cost of capital, were specifically allocated to hypothetical buyers.The Court did not allow this benefit, noting that I have written that S corporations should not be worth more than C corporations. What I have long said is that S corporations should not be worth more than otherwise identical C corporations. The Court's decisions regarding the tax rate above assured that AriZona was valued at less than an otherwise identical C corporation. The decision regarding the tax amortization benefit denied the value impact of a benefit that was clearly already on the table in negotiations ongoing only a few months before the valuation date.The effect of not including the tax amortization benefit lowered the Court's conclusion of fair value by about 14% (about $336 million) relative to the $2.364 billion conclusion of financial control value in the Mercer Report.5. The Terminal Value EstimationThe final cash flow in the DCF method is the estimation of the terminal value, which represents the present value of then-remaining future cash flows at the end of the finite projection period.The Court rejected the terminal value estimation in the Ruback Report, which called for a liquidation of the business at the end of the ten year forecast period. The Court believed that AriZona was a company poised for long-term growth.The long-term growth rate assumption used in the terminal value estimation in the Mercer Report was 4.5%, which was the sum of long-term real growth and inflation, as discussed in the Mercer Report. The weighted average cost of capital was 10.8%, so the terminal multiple of net cash flow was [1 / (10.8% - 4.5%)], or an implied multiple of terminal year EBITDA of just under 9x.The Court accepted the terminal value estimation from the Mercer Report, noting that it might be too conservative.6. The Discount Rate (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)There was little development of the discount rate in the Ruback Report, which concluded with a weighted average cost of capital ("WACC") of 11.0%.The WACC was developed in the Mercer Report using a "build-up method" to reach an equity discount rate. The equity discount rate included consideration for company-specific risk associated with the centrality of Mr. Vultaggio to the Company's operations as well as risks associated with the sustainability of new product innovation.The cost of debt was estimated and a capital structure was assumed based on the (non-comparable per the Court) guideline public companies in the Mercer Report.The resulting WACC was 10.8% for the October 5, 2010 valuation date, which was accepted by the Court.7. "Key Man" DiscountAs noted above, the Mercer Report included consideration of Mr. Vultaggio's importance to the Company in the development of the discount rate. Pratt testified on behalf of Vultaggio regarding a key man discount, but none was employed in the Ruback Report.Given the testimony at trial about the importance of Vultaggio to the operations of AriZona, the Court believed that it was important for this to be considered in the valuation process. Pratt also testified that consideration for a key person discount could be included as an adjustment to the discount rate in a discounted cash flow method.The Court considered that the Mercer Report had made appropriate consideration of key man issues in the discount rate development, which was accepted as noted above.8. Outstanding Cash, Non-Operating Assets and DebtThe Court accepted the analysis of non-operating assets and the consideration of debt as presented in the Mercer Report. There was significant cash on hand at both valuation dates as well as other non-operating assets that were readily collectible. There was also some debt owed primarily to Vultaggio.The Ruback Report subtracted debt at the valuation date, but did not include cash or other non-operating assets in its conclusion. Rather, those assets were held for the ten years of the forecast period and then discounted for ten years to the present in the Ruback Report, which argued that the cash was needed for operations. Given the 11.0% WACC in the report, this effectively discounted the non-operating assets by 65%, or about $100 million.A specious argument was made in the Ruback Report that the cash was needed to pay for the valuation judgment. The Court saw clearly that the cash was a part of value at the valuation date and that payment of the valuation judgment was a separate issue.The Court observed that the net non-operating assets were $137.6 million at October 5, 2011 and $161.4 million at January 31, 2011. Both totals were derived from the Mercer Report.The Court's Financial Control ValueThe Court did not provide a separate section to develop its financial control value, so we will do so now for clarity. Figure 1 summarizes the discussion to this point. The economics of the Court's analysis can now be summarized in relationship with the original DCF valuation in the Mercer Report. As the preceding discussion shows, the Court accepted the Mercer Report's Financial Control conclusion with three exceptions: No weight was placed on the guideline public company method. This had the effect of increasing value by about 3%. So the beginning point of the Court's analysis was $2.443 billion, as shown in Figure 1.The Court changed the blended federal/state tax rate of 38% in the Mercer Report to the personal rate of 43.5% from the Ruback Report. This had the effect of decreasing the Court's conclusion by about 8%, or by $196 million.Finally, the Court did not allow the tax amortization benefit employed in the Mercer DCF analysis. This lowered the Court's conclusion by $336 million, or about 14%. Overall, my interpretation of the Court's financial control value was $1.911 billion. Relative to the $2.364 billion conclusion of financial control value in the Mercer Report, the Court's conclusion was lower by $453 million, or about 19%. The Court's financial control value of $1.991 billion is 4.7 times greater than the analogous conclusion in the Ruback Report of $426 million. I make the comparison at the financial control level because that's the level at which such comparisons should be made in a fair value matter in New York. I say that because courts, and this Court, often show an ability to understand the economics of valuations. Justice Driscoll certainly did that. But when it comes to the next assumption, the discount for lack of marketability, or DLOM, or marketability discount, the courts in New York make the rules. The only problem is that they don't tell appraisers or anyone what the rules are.9. The Marketability Discount (DLOM)The Court's treatment of the marketability discount does not make sense from my perspective as a business valuer and a businessman. The discussion of the marketability discount, which is a $478 million adjustment in the Court's analysis, consists of just over three pages.Because this marketability discount is such a large and important adjustment, I will spend a significant amount of space discussing it.The Pratt and Ruback ReportsThe Court's determination of fair value was clearly conducted at the financial control level of value. The beginning point for the Court's determination was the financial control values provided in the Mercer Report as of October 5, 2010. The methodology of the Ruback Report also yielded a conclusion at the financial control level of value.The Ruback Report cited two studies in developing the DLOM, the Longstaff Model and the Silber Study.11 The Ruback Report stated that the Longstaff Model provided an "upper bound" for marketability discounts, and it was ignored in the final conclusion regarding the marketability discount.The Silber study reported an average restricted stock discount of 34%, and this was used as the basis for the Ruback Report's conclusion of a 35% marketability discount.As pointed out in the Reply Report, this use of the average from the Silber Study was inappropriate and misleading.12The Silber Study broke its sample into two distinct populations, those with discounts greater than 35% and those with discounts less than 35%.The group with discounts greater than 35% had a mean discount of 54%, median prior year revenues of $13.9 million and median prior year loss of $1.4 million. This group had an average market capitalization of $34 million.The group with discounts less than 35% looked entirely different. The mean discount was a much lower 14%, average revenues were $65 million, with median prior year earnings of $3.2 million, and an average market capitalization of $75 million.Compared with the second group of the Silber Study, AriZona had revenues of approximately $1.0 billion and pro forma after-tax net income of approximately $100 million. Even using the Ruback Report's flawed equity valuation of $426 million (before discounts), AriZona would be among the most attractive companies in the second group, if not the most attractive. If detailed transactional information were available from the Silber Study, relevant comparisons might suggest that a premium (i.e., a negative discount) should be applied. The range of "discounts" in the Silber Study was from a minus 13% (a premium of 13%) to a discount of 84%. Given AriZona's attractiveness relative to the sample of companies studied, the Silber Study supports a marketability discount of zero percent. Pratt also testified that the appropriate marketability discount should have been 35%. The Pratt Report cited numerous minority interest studies and analyzed a number of factors, most of which applied to illiquid minority interests of companies, although he also testified that any DLOM should be based only on corporate or enterprise factors and not on shareholder level factors. Unfortunately, I did not get time during direct testimony to address Ruback's 35% DLOM. Counsel for AriZona certainly did not want to question me about it during their cross-examination of me.The Mercer ReportThe Mercer Report cited a number of New York cases in support of a recommended marketability discount of 0%. I will discuss those in the context of the analysis of the Court’s treatment below.The bottom line is that AriZona is a large, highly successful company in a niche in the beverage industry that many players, both in the beverage industry and outside it, would like to own. Graphically, this positioning was shown in the Mercer Report as follows: AriZona (and Ferolito) had had significant discussions with Coca-Cola, Nestle Waters, and Tata Tea in the months and years prior to the valuation date. These discussions yielded informal offers ranging from $2.9 billion to more than $4 billion for 100% of the AriZona Entities. The record was clear that Vultaggio did not want to sell his shares or the Company in total. He exhibited reluctance to complete any transaction leading to the valuation dates and did not cooperate to facilitate the sale of the Ferolito shares. Ultimately, there were no transactions leading to the valuation date. The Mercer Report referred to discussions like those noted above as indicative of the interest of capable buyers. This was one factor considered in concluding that the appropriate marketability discount was 0%. The Court's AnalysisThe Court began its analysis by stating:13At the outset, nearly all courts in New York that have considered the question of whether to apply a DLOM have answered in the affirmative.I knew trouble was coming when I read that sentence. The Court then went on:14The instant case is readily distinguishable from each of the three cases upon which Ferolito relies in support of his claim that there should not be any DLOM at all. [emphasis added]I’m not a lawyer, but it seems to beg the question to begin an analysis by saying that nearly all courts have said positive marketability discounts were appropriate as a basis for applying one in the case of AriZona. Every case is fact-dependent. The fact is, there are a growing number of New York fair value decisions where 0% or very small marketability discounts have been concluded. This should make it important to reference at least some of them to see how AriZona compares.I testified in Giaimo, which involved two real estate holding companies. In that case, a special master concluded that the appropriate marketability discount was 0%.15 The 0% discount was affirmed by the New York Supreme Court, although using only a portion of the logic that I testified about. On appeal, the marketability discount was concluded to be 16%.16I also testified in the case Man Choi Chiuand42-52 Northern Boulevard, LLC v. Winston Chiu, involving another real estate holding company.17 In that case, the New York Supreme Court held that a 0% marketability discount was appropriate. That decision was left untouched in the appeal of the matter.As we will see, there are other 0% marketability discount cases, some of which are more relevant to AriZona than real estate holding companies.The Court said that Ferolito (Mercer) relied on three cases in support of no marketability discount. There were actually six cases analyzed in the Mercer Report from business and valuation perspectives.Friedman v. Beway18Beway was cited in the Mercer Report in support of the selection of the control level of value. Beway was cited in the early "General Principles of Valuation" section of the Court’s decision, but it was not cited in the Court's short discussion of the marketability discount. However, Beway itself is instructive regarding the applicability of a marketability discount, at least from a logical standpoint. Key citations were included in the discussion. Beway is quoted in the Mercer Report to illustrate important guidance in fair value determinations:"[I]n fixing fair value, courts should determine the minority shareholder's proportionate interest in the going concern value of the corporation as a whole, that is, ‘what a willing purchaser, in an arm's length transaction, would offer for the corporation as an operating business.'"This is the same quotation found at the beginning of this analysis regarding the appropriate level of value. Beway addresses the applicability of a minority discount:"[a] minority discount would necessarily deprive minority shareholders of their proportionate interest in a going concern,"This is important because such a discount:"would result in minority shares being valued below that of majority shares, thus violating our mandate of equal treatment of all shares of the same class in minority stockholder buyouts."Beway also argues against the unjust enrichment that would occur if a minority discount were allowed in a New York fair value determination."to fail to accord to a minority shareholder the full proportionate value of his [or her] shares imposes a penalty for lack of control, and unfairly enriches the majority stockholders who may reap a windfall from the appraisal process by cashing out a dissenting shareholder."Again, I'm not a lawyer, but the economic effect of applying a marketability discount is to lower the price below that which "a willing purchaser, in an arm's length transaction, would offer" for a business as a going concern.Further, the application of marketability discount results in "minority shares being valued below that of majority shares" and therefore violates the principle that "all shares of the same class" be treated equally.Finally regarding these quotes, the application of a marketability discount provides a windfall to control shareholders by imposing "a penalty for lack of control," because no controlling shareholder would ever sell his or her shares based on a discount for lack of marketability. We will see the effect of this penalty below.Beway, unfortunately, is inconsistent on its face in arguing strongly against the application of a minority discount while calling for consideration of a marketability discount, which, if applied, undermines the very principles that the case espouses. Obviously, that is my opinion from business and valuation perspectives. I have no legal opinions.Matter of Walt's Submarine Sandwiches, Inc.19The Court attempted to distinguish Walt's Submarine Sandwiches, which provided for a 0% marketability discount, from AriZona. In Walt's Submarine Sandwiches, "a DLOM was not appropriate where there was testimony of increased profits, expansion and 120 responses to a 'for sale' advertisement in the Wall Street Journal."First, there was adequate testimony of "increased profits and expansion" for AriZona leading to the valuation dates (covered above). The Court seemed to think that because there were a "geometrically smaller number of expressions of interest for AriZona", this is not a valid comparison from a business perspective. However, companies like AriZona are not sold through advertisements in the Wall Street Journal or anywhere. Large companies are carefully marketed by qualified professionals to limited universes of carefully selected financial and strategic buyers. There was substantial testimony from investment bankers regarding the attractiveness and marketability of AriZona.The Mercer Report stated about Walt's Submarine Sandwiches specifically, following significant discussion regarding the attractiveness and marketability of AriZona:20In Matter of Walt's Submarine Sandwiches, the Court rejected application of a marketability discount, finding that: "The record, including testimony of increased profits, expansion and 120 responses to a 'for sale' advertisement in The Wall Street Journal, amply supports a finding of respondent's marketability." If offered for sale, multiple potential acquirers would be interested in acquiring the AriZona Entities.The AriZona Court's analysis of Walt's Submarine Sandwiches, in my opinion from a business perspective, fails to demonstrate that the relevant facts are "readily distinguishable" from AriZona.Ruggiero v. Ruggiero21The AriZona Court noted that in Ruggiero, "there was 'insufficient explanation' to support a DLOM, which is far from the case here." That's the entire distinction made. If we look at the decision in Ruggiero, we see something different:22The sole issue the Court had with Mr. Glazer's explanation was his 20% discount for lack of marketability for which he did not provide sufficient explanation. In this sense the Court agreed with Plaintiff's expert that Zan's does constitute a somewhat unique niche business. Thus, the Court removed…the deduction for lack of marketability.One expert did not provide sufficient explanation for a 20% marketability discount. The other described the company as a "somewhat unique niche business," and apparently suggested a 0% marketability discount. The Ruggiero Court agreed with that characterization, and removed the marketability discount.The AriZona Court also noted that Ruggiero was not a BCL § 1118 case. This would appear to be a distinction without a difference because Beway instructs that the same valuation principles hold for BCL § 623 cases.In the Mercer Report, it was noted:23In Ruggiero v. Ruggiero, the Court concluded that no marketability discount was appropriate since the subject business constituted "a somewhat unique niche business." Among the unique attributes of the AriZona Entities is the fact that it is one of only four (and the only private) available U.S. non-alcoholic beverage systems with scale available to potential acquirers.The AriZona Court's analysis of Ruggiero, in my opinion from a business perspective, fails to demonstrate that the relevant facts are "readily distinguishable" from AriZona.O'Brien v. Academe Paving, Inc.24The AriZona Court's entire dismissal of O'Brien v. Academe Paving is in a single sentence: "Finally, in O'Brien v. Academe Paving, Inc. (citations omitted) the trial court appears to have applied an impermissible minority discount, rather than a DLOM." 25The O'Brien Court did refuse to allow an impermissible minority discount, citing the same passage from Beway noted above. Unfortunately, the characterization of the discussion regarding the DLOM would appear to be incorrect.The Court in O'Brien quoted Beway about the appropriateness of consideration of marketability discounts and then noted:The Court continued, in that same decision [Beway], and repeats here, that marketability discounts for close corporations (such as these here) are entirely proper if it is a factor used in valuing the corporation as a whole, not just a minority interest. 26At several points, the O'Brien Court stated that Academe/JOB was a very desirable and marketable commodity within the paving industry. The purpose of valuations conducted near the valuation date was to assist with a potential sale of the business. The business was marketable, attractive and was for sale.The O'Brien Court concluded regarding the marketability discount:As Mr. Griswold saw no need to factor an illiquidity discount into his analysis of the "enterprise value" of Academe/JOB for either April or November of 1999, so the Court sees no need to do so now.It should be clear that the application of a 0% marketability discount in O'Brien v. Academe Paving was an intentional decision by that Court based on the facts and circumstances of the case.The analysis in the Mercer Report stated the following about O'Brien:In O'Brien v. Academe Paving, Inc. the Court noted that marketability discounts are appropriate in fair value determinations in cases for which "the reduction of value of close corporations is thought to be necessary to reflect the (theoretical) circumstance that no 'market' buyer would want to buy into such a corporation, even if shareholders were willing to sell their interests (which, under most circumstances, they are not)." Noting that, in a sale of the subject business, petitioners' shares would not be subject to discount, the Court concluded that, since the subject company was "a very desirable/marketable commodity" within its industry, the appropriate marketability discount was 0%. The attractiveness and desirability of the AriZona Entities to potential acquirers has been discussed throughout this report.27The AriZona Court's analysis of O'Brien v. Academe Paving, in my opinion from a business perspective, fails to demonstrate that the relevant facts are "readily distinguishable" from AriZona.The Mercer Report discussed two other cases.In Quill v. Cathedral Corp., the Court noted that the receipt of offers for the subject business (and a subsequent sale at the asking price within a reasonable period of time) indicated that "the actual sales price received reflected any marketability discount and that no further deduction should be made from the value of petitioners' shares."28 The Supreme Court's reasoning was upheld on appeal.29 We should note that there was a second, apparently less marketable company involved in this litigation. For that company, the Supreme Court applied a 15% marketability discount, which was also upheld on appeal. With respect to the AriZona Entities, the conclusion of fair value is consistent with the offers from potential acquirers discussed previously in this report.30and,In Adelstein v. Finest Food Distributing Co.,31 the Court determined that a 5% marketability discount was appropriate for the subject business by reference to assumed transaction costs involved in a sale. As a percentage of the sales price, transaction costs are generally inversely related to the amount of the proceeds. In the event of the sale of a multi-billion company like AriZona, one would anticipate transaction costs to be much less than 5% of the purchase price.32Another case was mentioned by the AriZona Court, that of Zelouf International Corp. v. Zelouf, which was published shortly before the decision in AriZona.33 In that case, Justice Kornreich did not apply a marketability discount. The AriZona Court noted that "as readily demonstrated by the stalled Nestle negotiations, the very reasons for a DLOM here have resulted in – or are at least strongly correlated with – the failure of Ferolito to sell his shares prior to the proceeding."Zelouf actually stands for another principle (as I read it from business and valuation perspectives), that the lack of desire on the part of controlling shareholders to sell, potentially ever, should not be the cause for imposing an illiquidity discount on the dissenters (or, by inference, on Ferolito in the AriZona matter). Peter Mahler, writer of the well-known New York Business Divorce Blog, wrote the following:Justice Kornreich found the risk of illiquidity associated with the company "more theoretical than real," explaining there was little or no likelihood the controlling shareholders would sell the company, i.e, themselves would incur illiquidity risk upon sale. Imposing DLOM in valuing the dissenting shareholder's stake, therefore, would be tantamount to levying a prohibited discount for lack of control a/k/a minority discount.34The AriZona Court distinguished this matter from Zelouf based on stalled Nestle negotiations involving Ferolito. In Zelouf, Justice Kornreich accepted a 0% marketability discount because the controlling shareholders did not want to sell, potentially ever. The logic was that if the controlling shareholders would never suffer from illiquidity, then the dissenting shareholder should not be charged with a marketability discount. Vultaggio did not want to sell at all and was very clear about that in both word and actions.A further development in Zelouf was published December 22, 2014.35   In this supplemental decision, Justice Kornreich made the following statements:[N]o New York appellate court has ever held that a DLOM must be applied to a fair value appraisal of a closely held company. On the contrary, the Court of Appeals has held that "there is no single formula for mechanical application." Matter of Seagroatt Floral Co., Inc., 78 NY2d 439, 445 (1991). Indeed, the Court of Appeals recognizes that "[v]aluing a closely held corporation is not an exact science" because such corporations “by their nature contradict the concept of a market' value." Id. at 446. As set forth in the Decision, since Danny is not likely to give up control of the Company, Nahal should not recover less due to possible illiquidity costs in the event of a sale that is not likely to occur. [emphasis added]And further:[I]n this case, under the unique set of facts set forth in the Decision, applying a DLOM is unfair. This court's understanding of the applicable precedent is that, while many corporate valuation principles ought to guide this court's analysis, this court's role is not to blithely apply formalistic and buzzwordy principles so the resulting valuation is cloaked with an air of financial professionalism. To be sure, sound valuation principles ought to be and indeed were utilized in computing the Company's value (i.e., the court's adoption of most of Vannucci's valuation). Nonetheless, the gravamen of the court's valuation is fairness, a notion that is undefined, making it a classic question of fact for the court. Fairness, in this court's view, necessarily requires contextualizing the applicable valuation principles to the actual company being valued, as opposed to merely deciding a priori, and in a vacuum, that certain adjustments must be part of the court's calculus. From this perspective, the court reached its conclusion that an application of a DLOM here would be tantamount to the imposition of a minority discount. Consequently, the court finds it fairer to avoid applying a minority discount at all costs rather than ensuring that all hypothetical liquidity risks are accounted for. [Citation omitted.] [emphasis added]Justice Kornreich went on to say that if forced to impose a marketability discount, it would be 10%, citing another recent New York fair value case, Cortes v. 3A N. Park Ave Rest Corp.36 Suffice it to say, Zelouf is not "readily distinguishable" from the AriZona matter, at least in my opinion from business and valuation perspectives. Rather, the logic of Zelouf supports a 0% marketability discount, since it was the actions of the controlling shareholder, Vultaggio, that caused Ferolito's sale negotiations to break down.The AriZona Court went on to agree with Vultaggio that their claims justified "some semblance of a discount." Those bases included the following:the fact that AriZona did not have audited financial statements for many years prior to the valuation datethe extensive litigation between the shareholders,the uncertainty about the company's S Corporation status,the transfer restrictions in the Owner's Agreement. These issues do not, in my opinion, justify a marketability discount of 25% for AriZona, as will be seen through the Court's own analysis.Testimony showed that absent shareholder fighting, AriZona's financial statements could readily be audited. The reasons for the lack of a completed audit stemmed from the litigation at hand. The Court stated: "First, as Gelling's testimony established, AriZona's financial statements can be readily audited, particularly when the shareholders are no longer battling with each other." (emphasis added)Importantly, the litigation between the two shareholders would be terminated by the very case at hand. The Court stated: "Second, as credibly explained by Ferolito's investment banker Rita Keskinyan, the litigation between the two shareholders would necessarily cease when one shareholder's interests are acquired." (emphasis added)And the litigation would surely cease if 100% of the Company were sold as a "going concern" in the hypothetical transaction contemplated by Beway.The so-called "uncertainty about the company's S-Corporations status" was likely immaterial. The Court stated: "Third, the uncertainty about the company's S-Corporation status is, at most, a scenario about which reasonable minds have differed." (emphasis added)Further, no buyer of AriZona would be concerned about the S corporation status. The buyer would only purchase assets if there were any concern at all. Any remaining issues re S corporation status would be a problem for the remaining owners of shell S Corporation (i.e., after assets are sold), and not a problem for the purchaser, who bought assets.Transfer restrictions on interests in a company's equity in an Owner's Agreement should logically have no impact on the value of 100% of the equity of a business sold as a going concern, which is the standard from Beway, which states that such restrictions should be "literally inapplicable." The AriZona Court undermined its own logic for a substantial marketability discount in its own analysis, at least as I read the decision from business and valuation perspectives. I think that this discussion shows that a 25% DLOM for an attractive, saleable company like AriZona, is excessive and unreasonable, or, to use Justice Kornreich's term, perhaps unfair.DLOM and Prejudgment InterestThe combined impact of the three changes to assumptions in the Mercer Report's financial control analysis lowered the Court's adjusted financial control value to $1.911 billion (from $2.364 billion), which was derived in Figure 1 above. Figure 2 picks up at that point. The Court imposed a 25% marketability discount. What does that mean? Well, it lowered value by some $478 million. That is a tremendous price for so-called lack of marketability or illiquidity, particularly given the obvious and demonstrable desire of capable buyers to acquire AriZona. I seldom use words like that in writing, but it is unavoidable. The conclusion of financial control value was lowered from $1.911 billion to $1.433 billion, which was the Court's conclusion of fair value in AriZona. For context, a marketability discount of 5% was allowed in the Adelstein v. Finest Food Distributing Co. based on assumed transaction costs on a sale of the business. As noted above and in the Mercer Report, with a company the size of AriZona, such transaction costs would be substantially lower than 5%. A 5% marketability discount would provide for almost $100 million of transaction costs in an actual sale of Arizona at the Court's financial control value of $1.911 billion. That would, in my opinion, be quite excessive in itself. At this point, we see that the Court found that prejudgment interest was due Ferolito because of the wait between the October 2010 valuation date and the October 2014 decision date. The prejudgment interest, which was set at 9%, continued based on the decision until the matter was resolved. Prejudgment interest at a simple interest rate of 9% per year amounts to $129 million on a base fair value of $1.433 billion. In the four years between the valuation and decision dates, the accrual of interest raised the Court's conclusion to $1.949 billion, as estimated in Figure 2. The value of the combined Ferolito 50% interest in AriZona based on the conclusion of fair value plus prejudgment interest was therefore $975 billion, which was to accrue prejudgment interest at the rate of 9% (simple), or $64.5 million per year (or half of $129 million on 100% of the concluded fair value). These are big numbers, but AriZona is a big and valuable private company. An Impermissible Minority Discount?The Court performed its analysis and developed a conclusion of fair value at the financial control level of value of $1.911 billion. It then took a 25% marketability discount. We examined prejudgment interest in Figure 2. However, prejudgment interest is not part of value. It is interest, or payment for waiting from October 2010 (valuation date) to October 2014 (decision date) to receive the judicial determination of fair value.We return to examining only the conclusion of fair value before the imposition of prejudgment interest in Figure 3. Assume with me that the conclusion of strategic value in the Mercer Report of $3.204 billion is reasonable. In a real transaction, corporate tax rates would be used by real market participants and the tax amortization benefit would be considered in the negotiations leading to a transaction. I am not arguing with the Court about the decision to disregard strategic control value in favor of financial control value, but it is important to see the impact of decisions and examine them in that light. As seen above, there is a $1.293 billion discount from the strategic control value to the Court's financial control value. In the absence of litigation, Ferolito and Vultaggio each owns half of the option value of selling the company and receiving their respective shares of strategic control value. The decision to move to financial control reduces the Ferolito share by $647 million, which is a direct addition to the Vultaggio option value. We will use this result below. The Court imposed a 25% marketability discount to its concluded financial control value of $1.911 billion, yielding a resulting conclusion of fair value of $1.433 billion. However, the focus of the analysis is on the marketability discount of 25%, or $478 million dollars. Figure 4 focuses only on financial control value. Figure 4 begins with the Court's concluded financial control value of $1.911 billion. Remember, value is value and interest is interest, so to understand the value transfers involved in the Court's analysis, we have to focus on financial control value. Ferolito and Vultaggio share in financial control value at 50% each. Their pro rata shares are therefore $956 million each, or half of $1.911 billion each. The Court imposed a 25% marketability discount, so the Ferolito share is reduced by $239 million, yielding an indication of fair value of $717 million, or 50% of the Court's after DLOM value conclusion of $1.433 billion (Figure 3). The results get interesting here. While Ferolito's value is reduced by the marketability discount, Vultaggio's value is increased by exactly the same amount. Vultaggio's share of the Court's financial control value is $1.194 billion, or 62.5% of financial control value of $1.911 billion. Vultaggio's $717 million share represents only 37.5% of that value. The result of the imposition of a 25% marketability discount is to transfer $478 million of value to the Vultaggio column, resulting in a 66.7% premium in value for Vultaggio. In other words, the imposition of the marketability discount at the enterprise level ($478 million) resulted in a shift in value of that entire amount to Vultaggio's 50% interest. The imposition of a marketability discount of 25% results in a dollar-for-dollar penalty in value for the seller in a fair value case where the ownership is 50%-50%. What this boils down to deserves highlighting: Mathematically and practically, the imposition of a minority discount would do exactly the same thing as the imposition of a marketability discount. However, transferring value by imposing a minority interest discount is forbidden by Beway. If transferring value from the minority (or non-controlling) owners to the controlling owners is forbidden on the one hand (i.e., a minority discount), it would seem that the other hand (i.e., the marketability discount) would be forbidden as well. From the viewpoint of the non-controlling shareholder, there is no distinction – value transferred to the controlling owner(s) is value transferred by whatever name it is given.I'm reminded of the father who told his son not to hit his sister after he was caught in the act. He stopped, but a few minutes later, he kicked her. When his father asked why he had done that, he said because you didn't tell me not to kick her. Well, the New York courts say emphatically that you can't hit your sister (i.e., by imposing a minority discount). But then the father (New York appellate courts) say you can kick her (by imposing a marketability discount). No wonder the kids (judges, lawyers, and business appraisers) are confused.This is an issue that desperately needs clear appellate court guidance in New York.In Figure 5, we see that there is countervailing logic against the marketability discount, because given that the Court in the AriZona matter selected the financial control level of value rather than the strategic level, potential value is definitely transferred to Vultaggio in this case and controlling owners in general when marketability discounts are applied. Figure 5 examines both the potential shift in value in moving from strategic to financial control as well as the actual shift in value by imposing a 25% marketability discount in the AriZona matter. In Figure 5, we again begin with the strategic control value from the Mercer Report of $3.204 billion. Line 1. Ferolito and Vultaggio each share, while they are 50%-50% owners, this potential value (or option), or $1.602 billion each in value. We calculated the discount in potential value from the strategic level down to Court's financial control to be $1.293 billion (i.e., from $3.204 billion down to $1.911 billion) in Figure 3.Line 2. This results in a loss of potential value of $647 million (half of the discount from Strategic Control to Financial Control) for Ferolito, which is accretive to value to Vultaggio by exactly the same amount. What that means is that, at least theoretically, the day after the settlement, Vultaggio could sell the Company for $3.204 billion and reap a substantial windfall. That potential windfall is the $647 million discount for Ferolito that is added to the Vultaggio column.Line 3. The financial control value for Ferolito is $956 million. In practical terms, Vultaggio would receive $3.204 billion in the hypothetical sale and then pay Ferolito at the $956 million financial control value (or repay the lender), leaving him with $2.249 billion. This amount is 2.4 times greater than the financial control value accorded to Ferolito.Line 4. At this point, we apply the Court's 25% marketability discount in the Ferolito column. The way things work, this is a direct shift of an equivalent amount to Vultaggio.Line 5. The concluded fair value for the 50% Ferolito share of AriZona is $717 million. This compares to the concluded potential value for Vultaggio of $2.488 billion, or 3.5 times greater.I am not arguing for the use of strategic control value in New York fair value cases. That is a matter for New York appellate courts to decide. However, I am suggesting that for the potential benefit of strategic value that applies in operating business cases for remaining owners, equity (dare I use that word) could call for the elimination of the marketability discount in New York fair value cases.Without providing detailed evidence at this point, I can safely say that the great majority of jurisdictions in the United States have reached this conclusion.Concluding ThoughtsThis has been a lengthy analysis. Let's conclude with a few highlights:In my opinion, at least, the logic supporting a marketability discount of 0% for attractive, marketable companies, and relevant comparisons to AriZona, should have supported the 0% conclusion for the marketability discount in the Mercer Report in New York fair value cases.The case law logic supporting a minority discount of 0% in selected New York cases would also, if applied consistently, support a 0% marketability discount for an attractive, saleable company like AriZona.In this matter, any valuation discount, whether a minority discount or a marketability discount, has the effect of transferring value directly from the non-controlling owner(s) to the controlling owner(s).As shown in this analysis, the selection of financial control as the appropriate level of value for an operating company like AriZona already provides a potential “windfall” for controlling shareholders. I'm not suggesting that any court should order a sale of a company to achieve this value or select strategic value as the appropriate level of value for fair value. However, I do suggest that it is an equitable issue that could or should be considered in fair value determinations in New York.Lastly for this summary, prejudgment interest is not value as of a valuation date. We cannot reasonably look at the Court's conclusion, including interest, as the conclusion of fair value. That conclusion represents fair value plus prejudgment interest, and interest is interest, not value. The enormous transfer of value and potential value that occurred with this decision is masked by thinking that the final conclusion, including interest, represents fair value. Fair value was – and had to be – determined at the valuation date of October 5, 2010. In the final analysis, the Court substantially agreed with the DCF method as employed in the Mercer Report, differing only on three assumptions. The Court then applied a marketability discount of 25%, which, in my opinion and based on the analysis above, was not differentiated to AriZona and was not justified. In fact, it was undermined by the Court's own analysis. The good news is that the matter has been settled between the parties. A long and contentious period of litigation has ended. The settlement has not been made public, and that likely will not occur. The bad news is that the Court of Appeals in New York will miss an excellent opportunity to reexamine the marketability discount issue. ENDNOTESJohn M. Ferolito and JMF Investments Holdings, Inc., Plaintiffs, against AriZona Beverages USA LLC, AZ National Distributors LLC, AriZona Beverage Company LLC, Defendants, In the Matter of the Application of John M. Ferolito, the Holder of More Than 20 Percent of All Outstanding Shares of Beverage Marketing, USA, Inc., Petitioner, For the Dissolution of Beverage Marketing, USA, Inc., John M. Ferolito and the John Ferolito, Jr. Grantor Trust (John M. Ferolito and Carolyn Ferolito as Co-Trustees), both individually and derivatively on behalf of Beverage Marketing USA, Inc., Plaintiffs, against Domenick J. Vultaggio and David Menashi, Defendants. New York Supreme Court, Nassau County, No. 004058-12. ("Ferolito v. Vultaggio")Others have written about the AriZona Matter, including:Peter Mahler, New York Corporate Divorce Blog, "Court Rejects Potential Acquirers' Expressions of Interest, Relies Solely on DCF Method to Determine Fair Value of 50% Interest in AriZona Iced Tea," October 27, 2014Gilbert E Matthews (Parts I and II) and Michelle Patterson (Part II):, Financial Valuation and Litigation Expert, "How the Court Undervalued the Plaintiffs' Equity in Ferolito v. AriZona Beverages:""Part I: Tax-Affecting S Corporation Earnings" (April/May 2015)"Part II: Ferolito and the Application of DLOM in New York Fair Value Cases" (June/July 2015).Friedman v. Beway Realty Corp., 87 N.Y.2d 161, 168 (1995) (emphasis in original) (quoting Matter of Pace Photographers, Ltd., 71 N.Y.2d 737, 748 (1988)).Ferolito v. Vultaggio.Expert Report of Richard S. Ruback, dated February 17, 2014, with valuation conclusions as of December 31, 2010 ("the Ruback Report"), page 4.Ferolito v. Vultaggio.Ferolito v. Vultaggio.The forecasted growth in the Mercer Report for financial control was actually at a CAGR of 7.7%. The Court's reference to a 10.2% CAGR actually applied to Mercer's strategic control value, which considered the ability of a strategic partner to enhance growth. Both forecasts were provided in the Bellas Report previously mentioned.Ferolito v. Vultaggio.Pratt, Shannon P., Valuing a Business Fifth Edition (McGraw Hill, 2008), pp. 618-619.Francis A. Longstaff. "How Much Can Marketability Affect Security Values?" The Journal of Finance, December 1995, Vol. 50, No. 5, pages 1767-1774, and William L. Silber. "Discounts on Restricted Stock: The Impact of Illiquidity on Stock Prices." Financial Analysts Journal, July August 1991, pages 60-64.Citing an analysis prepared by Mercer in a book published in 1997. Mercer, Z. Christopher, Quantifying Marketability Discounts (Peabody Publishing, 1994), pages 63-66.Ferolito v. Vultaggio.Ferolito v. Vultaggio.Matter of Giaimo v. Vitale, 2011 NY Slip Op 50714(U) (Sup. Ct. NY County).Matter of Giaimo v. Vitale, 2012 NY Slip Op 08778 [101AD3d 523].Man Choi Chiu and 42-52 Northern Boulevard, LLC v Winston Chiu Index Nos. 21905/07, 25275/07.Beway v. Friedman.Matter of Walt's Submarine Sandwiches, 173 A.D.2d 980, 981 (3d Dep't 1991).The Mercer Report, Master Page 105.Ruggiero v. Ruggiero, Index No. 36299-2012 (2013).The Mercer Report, Master Page 104.The Mercer Report, Master Page 104.O'Brien v. Academe Paving, Inc., Index No. 99-2594 RJI No. 99-1794-M, at 13-14 (Sup. Ct. Broom Cnty. 2000).Ferolito v. Vultaggio.O'Brien v. Academe Paving, Inc., Index No. 99-2594 RJI No. 99-1794-M, at 13-14 (Sup. Ct. Broom Cnty. 2000).The Mercer Report, Master Page 104.Quill v. Cathedral Corp., RJI 10-90-2887, at 8 (Sup. Ct. Columbia Cnty, June 8, 1993).Quill v. Cathedral Corp. 215 A.D.2d 960 (3d Dep't 1995).The Mercer Report, Master Page 104.Adelstein v. Finest Food Distributing Co., 2011 WL 6738941 (N.Y.Sup.), 2011 N.Y. Slip Op. 33256(U) (Sup. Ct. Queens Cnty. Nov. 3, 2011).Mercer Report, Master Page 105.Zelouf International Corp. v Zelouf, 2014 NY Slip Op 51462(U) [Sup Ct, NY County Oct. 6, 2014].Peter Mahler, New York Business Divorce Blog, "Court's Rejection of Marketability Discount in Zelouf Case Guided by Fairness, Not 'Formalistic and Buzzwordy Principles'," January 5, 2015.Zelouf International Corp. v. Zelouf, Index 653652/2013 (Dec. 22, 2014).Cortes v 3A N. Park Ave Rest Corp., 2014 WL 5486477 (Sup Ct, Kings County Oct. 29, 2014).
Recent Trends in the Fair Value of Community Bank Loan Portfolios
Recent Trends in the Fair Value of Community Bank Loan Portfolios
Although successful bank acquisitions largely hinge on deal execution and realizing expense synergies, properly assessing and pricing credit represents a primary deal risk. Additionally, the acquirer’s pro forma capital ratios are always important, but even more so in a heightened regulatory environment and merger approval process. Against this backdrop, merger-related accounting issues for bank acquirers have become increasingly important in recent years and the most significant fair value mark typically relates to the determination of the fair value of the loan portfolio.Fair value is guided by ASC 820 and defines value as the price received/paid by market participants in orderly transactions. It is a process that involves a number of assumptions about market conditions, loan portfolio segment cash flows inclusive of assumptions related to expected credit losses, appropriate discount rates, and the like. To properly evaluate a target’s loan portfolio, the portfolio should be evaluated on its own merits, but markets do provide perspective on where the cycle is and how this compares to historical levels.We reviewed fair values of recently announced community bank deals to determine if any trends emerged. As detailed in Figure 1, the fair value mark (i.e., the discount based on the estimated fair value compared to the reported gross loan balance) in recent deals appears to increase as the level of problem assets increases. However, the range remains quite wide and rarely hits the trendline, which could partially reflect the unique nature of isolated community bank loan portfolios. Overall, the median fair value mark observed was 3.30% while the median level of adjusted non-performing loans (as a percentage of loans) was 2.22%.Sources: Mercer Capital research, company SEC filings, company investor presentations The recent fair value marks were generally below those reported in deals during (2008-2010) and immediately after the financial crisis (2010-2012). This trend reflects a number of factors including:Stable to improving macro-economic trends. While contracting during the financial crisis, real GDP growth was relatively stable in 2013 and 2014 at approximately 2.20%. Real disposable income also increased 1.70% in 2014 after remaining relatively flat in 2013. Additionally, employment considerations have continued to improve in recent periods with the unemployment rate down to 5.7% in January of 2015 compared to 7.9% and 6.6% in January of 2013 and 2014, respectively.Higher real estate collateral values. While the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index remains about 15% below its peak in mid-2006, it has increased about 25% since year-end 2011. Additionally, economic data from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis indicated that commercial real estate prices have been increasing year-over-year since year-end 2010 and were up 7.3% over the 12 months ended September 30, 2014.Reduced levels of noncurrent loans. As detailed in Figure 2, credit migration continued to be positive and levels have declined to almost pre-financial crisis levels (third quarter 2014 levels approximated early 2008 levels). Source: FDIC Reduced Credit Spreads. Credit spreads provide perspective on a number of factors, including where the credit cycle has been and where it is headed, as well as potential portfolio issues at a target when there are no apparent issues. While credit spreads did increase in mid-2014, they have generally declined since the financial crisis as economic conditions as well as investor sentiment have improved. For example, BB credit spreads have declined from 5.0% in January of 2012 to 3.5% in January of 2015. All else equal, reduced credit spreads serve to lower the discount rate applied to the expected cash flows for a target’s loan portfolio, thereby increasing the fair value of the loan portfolio. Mercer Capital has provided a number of valuations for potential acquirers to assist with ascertaining the fair value of acquired loan portfolio. In addition to loan portfolio valuation services, we also provide acquirers with valuations of other financial assets and liabilities acquired in a bank transaction, including depositor intangible assets, time deposits, and trust preferred securities. Feel free to give us a call or email to discuss any valuation issues in confidence as you plan for a potential acquisition. Reprinted from Bank Watch February 2015.
Noncompete Agreements for Section 280G Compliance
Noncompete Agreements for Section 280G Compliance
Golden parachute payments have long been a controversial topic. These payments, typically occurring when a public company undergoes a change-in-control, can result in huge windfalls for senior executives and in some cases draw the ire of political activists and shareholder advisory groups. Golden parachute payments can also lead to significant tax consequences for both the company and the individual. Strategies to mitigate these tax risks include careful design of compensation agreements and consideration of noncompete agreements to reduce the likelihood of additional excise taxes.When planning for and structuring an acquisition, companies and their advisors should be aware of potential tax consequences associated with the golden parachute rules of Sections 280G and 4999 of the Internal Revenue Code. A change-in-control (CIC) can trigger the application of IRC Section 280G, which applies specifically to executive compensation agreements. Proper tax planning can help companies comply with Section 280G and avoid significant tax penalties.Golden parachute payments usually consist of items like cash severance payments, accelerated equity-based compensation, pension benefits, special bonuses, or other types of payments made in the nature of compensation. In a CIC, these payments are often made to the CEO and other named executive officers (NEOs) based on agreements negotiated and structured well before the transaction event. In a single-trigger structure, only a CIC is required to activate the award and trigger accelerated vesting on equity-based compensation. In this case, the executive’s employment need not be terminated for a payment to be made. In a double-trigger structure, both a CIC and termination of the executive’s employment are necessary to trigger a payout.Adverse tax consequences may apply if the total amount of parachute payments to an individual exceeds three times (3x) that individual’s “Base Amount.” The Base Amount is generally calculated as the individual’s average annual W2 compensation over the preceding five years.As shown in Figure 1 below, if the (3x) threshold is met or crossed, the excess of the CIC Payments over the Base Amount is referred to as the Excess Parachute Payment. The individual is then liable for a 20% excise tax on the Excess Parachute Payment, and the employer loses the ability to deduct the Excess Parachute Payment for federal income tax purposes. Several options exist to help mitigate the impact of the Section 280G penalties. One option is to design (or revise) executive compensation agreements to include “best after-tax” provisions, in which the CIC payments are reduced to just below the threshold only if the executive is better off on an after-tax basis. Another strategy that can lessen or mitigate the impact of golden parachute taxes is to consider the value of noncompete provisions that relate to services rendered after a CIC. If the amount paid to an executive for abiding by certain noncompete covenants is determined to be reasonable, then the amount paid in exchange for these services can reduce the total parachute payment. According to Section 1.280G-1 of the Code, the parachute payment “does not include any payment (or portion thereof) which the taxpayer establishes by clear and convincing evidence is reasonable compensation for personal services to be rendered by the disqualified individual on or after the date of the change in ownership or control.” Further, the Code goes on to state that “the performance of services includes holding oneself out as available to perform services and refraining from performing services (such as under a covenant not to compete or similar arrangement).” Figure 2 below illustrates the impact of a noncompete agreement exemption on the calculation of Section 280G excise taxes. How can the value of a noncompete agreement be reasonably and defensibly calculated? Revenue Ruling 77-403 states the following: “In determining whether the covenant [not to compete] has any demonstrable value, the facts and circumstances in the particular case must be considered. The relevant factors include: (1) whether in the absence of the covenant the covenantor would desire to compete with the covenantee; (2) the ability of the covenantor to compete effectively with the covenantee in the activity in question; and (3) the feasibility, in view of the activity and market in question, of effective competition by the covenantor within the time and area specified in the covenant.”A common method to value noncompete agreements is the “with or without” method. Fundamentally, a noncompete agreement is only as valuable as the stream of cash flows the firm protects “with” an agreement compared to “without” one. Cash flow models can be used to assess the impact of competition on the firm based on the desire, ability, and feasibility of the executive to compete. Valuation professionals should consider factors such as revenue reductions, increases in expenses and competition, and the impact of employee solicitation and recruitment.Mercer Capital provides independent valuation opinions to assist public companies with IRC Section 280G compliance. Our opinions are well-reasoned and well-documented, and have been accepted by the largest U.S. accounting firms and various regulatory bodies, including the SEC and the IRS.
Waiting Margin Relief
Waiting on Margin Relief
Although it is difficult to discern with the ten-year U.S. Treasury presently yielding about 2.4% compared to 3.0% at the beginning of the year, many market participants believe the Federal Reserve will begin to raise the Fed Funds target rate next year. The thought process is not illogical. How high short-term rates may rise is unknown. (A corollary question for others is what, if anything, will the Fed do with its enlarged balance sheet as shown in Table 1.) Pimco’s Bill Gross has opined that the “new neutral” target rate will be around 2% rather than a historical policy bias of 4%. For lenders, money market funds and trust/processing companies, a hike in short rates cannot occur soon enough.
Valuing Urgent Care Centers
WHITEPAPER | Valuing Urgent Care Centers
This whitepaper is structured to provide further details outlining the factors contributing to the proliferation of the urgent care services industry, the key players and their activities, and considerations for current and prospective owners of these facilities related to the valuation of urgent care centers. This whitepaper is part of Mercer Capital’s expertise in providing valuation and transaction advisory services to a diversity of businesses and for a wide range of purposes, including those operating in the healthcare service sector, such as urgent care centers and similar businesses.
How ESOPs Work
How ESOPs Work
ESOPs are a recognized exit planning tool for business owners, as well as a vehicle for employees to own stock in their employer company. However, most business owners and their advisors are unfamiliar with how an ESOP works.

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