November brought a modest sales rebound for the auto industry, though year-over-year volumes continued to slip as tariff-driven price increases and expired EV tax credits cooled demand. BEV market share has dropped sharply since September, and per-unit profitability is tightening even as the industry remains on track to top 16 million units for the first time since 2019. With wide differences in brand-level inventory, franchise value is increasingly tied to OEM supply discipline as dealers head into a mixed finish for 2025.

In August 2025, the U.S. auto industry slowed as the SAAR of 16.1 million units represented a 2.9% decrease from the prior month. However, the trend of year-over-year increases continued, as eleven of the past twelve months have beat the prior year, with a 6.2% increase from August 2024. The August 2025 performance is particularly impressive given the inflated baseline from the previous year’s CDK software outage that shifted sales into July and August 2024. Read more in this week’s post.

The July 2025 SAAR came in at 16.4 million units, up 7.1% from last month and up 3.7% from July 2024. It is important to note that this modest year-over-year gain requires a bit more context due to irregularly high sales this time last year. Looking forward, Mercer Capital expects the August 2025 SAAR to end up near the June 2025 SAAR. As tariff-related uncertainty persists, it is likely that supply chain, sales volumes, profits, and blue sky multiples will remain under pressure in the coming months.

The June 2025 SAAR came in at 15.3 million units, down 1.7% from last month but up 2.3% from June 2024. The noticeable decline in the June 2025 SAAR continues the trend of softer sales after the pull-ahead effect seen in March and April, as consumers likely aimed to beat any tariff-related increases. Mercer Capital expects the July 2025 SAAR to end up near the June 2025 SAAR — above the 15 million mark — but perhaps a bit muted from the trendline we observed at the beginning of 2025. While tariff-related uncertainty persists, it is likely that supply chain, sales volumes, profits, and blue sky multiples will remain under pressure in the coming months.

The May 2025 SAAR came in at 15.6 million units, down 9.3% from the previous month and representing a 1.1% decline from May 2024. Since the implementation of the Trump tariffs in early April, existing consumer demand and inventories have temporarily mitigated the impact on the auto industry. However, the resulting supply chain pressures and threat of higher vehicle prices have reduced sales momentum, contributing to a noticeable decline in the SAAR this month. Over the next several months, the automotive industry may continue to experience slower sales and tighter margins as it navigates tariff uncertainty and potentially recalibrates its global supply chains.

The April 2025 SAAR came in at 17.3 million units, down 3.1% from last month but up 7.8% from April 2024. Even with a slight month-over-month decline from the short-term peak of last month’s SAAR, April 2025 still saw the second-highest SAAR since April 2021. This highlights the strong demand in the current market as consumers are motivated to purchase a vehicle before potential tariff-related price increases. Mercer Capital expects the May 2025 SAAR to come in lower, as we believe demand was pulled into March and April with dealers across the country advertising some form of “pre-tariff pricing.” We’ll be keeping tabs on the market to keep you up to date on tariffs and other industry-relevant news.

The March 2025 SAAR came in at 17.8 million units, up a staggering 11.0% from last month and 13.3% from March 2024. March 2025 saw the highest SAAR since April 2021, reflecting not only the recent trend of strong consumer demand but also the additional demand generated by consumers motivated to purchase a vehicle to avoid potential tariff-related price increases. Mercer Capital expects the April 2025 SAAR to come much lower as we believe demand was pulled forward into March. Based on the reaction from equity markets, the magnitude of the tariffs has caught the global economy by surprise. Over the next several months, the industry will shift and react to the tariffs, with uncertainty surrounding electric vehicle tax policy on the back burner.

The February 2025 SAAR came in at 16.0 million units, up 3.2% from last month and 2.1% from February 2024. While February typically records one of the lowest sales volumes each year, this month’s SAAR exceeded the average of the last five Februarys (approximately 15.3 million units). February 2025 performance reflected strength in consumer demand, primarily driven by improved inventory and incentive spending. Mercer Capital expects the March 2025 SAAR to come in around 16.0 million as consumers continue to be drawn in by a wider array of available inventory. Even after strong February sales, the industry will continue to face uncertainties surrounding import tariffs and electric vehicle tax policy over the next several months.

The January 2025 SAAR came in at 15.6 million units, down 7.5% from last month and up 3.8% from January 2024. January is typically one of the lowest months of sales volume each year, but as seasonal adjustments usually account for this, it is notable that this month’s SAAR dipped to the lowest point since January 2024. It is also worth mentioning that this month’s SAAR exceeded the average of the last five Januarys (approximately 15.4 million units). We expect the February 2025 SAAR to end up around 16.0 million as consumers continue to be drawn in by a wider array of available (and more affordable) inventory.

The December 2024 SAAR came in at 16.8 million units, just slightly higher than last month and up 4.2% from December 2023. Notably, this month’s SAAR outpaced the last three Decembers and was the highest monthly SAAR since May 2021 (17.0 million units). As we look to January 2025, we expect the SAAR to come in around 16.5 million, primarily driven by the greater breadth of inventory available and increased affordability.

The November 2024 SAAR came in at 16.5 million units, which is 1.5% higher than last month and 6.2% higher than November 2023. Of note, November 2024 had one more selling day than November 2023. According to J.D. Power, the year-over-year increase in total new-vehicle sales for November 2024 was forecast near the end of the month at 6.7% after being adjusted for the additional selling day, compared to an approximately 11.0% increase without adjusting for the additional selling day. Mercer Capital expects the December 2024 SAAR to come in around 16.5 million and the average transaction price to continue to moderate as vehicle purchasing will likely increase throughout the holidays and into the new year.